2026 年 03 月 01 日 信科技等调入北证 50 指数,美 升温加强通胀交易线 -北交所策略周报（20260223-20260301） 本周策略观点: 本周市场行情: 北交所新股: 新三板动态: 证券分析师 刘靖 A0230512070005 liujing@swsresearch.com 王雨晴 A0230522010003 wanqyg@swsresearch.com 郑菁华 A0230525060001 zhengjh@swsresearch.com 汪秉涵 A0230525090003 wangbh@swsresearch.com 研究支持 吕靖华 A0230124070002 lvjh@swsresearch.com 联系人 吕靖华 A0230124070002 lvjh@swsresearch.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 相关研究 本周北证 50 上涨 0.48%,但节后首周日均成交微降 3.3%,交易气氛尚未回归。1）本 周是马年春节后首个交易周，北交所指数微升但日均成交微降。而 wind 全 A 本周上涨 2.7%，沪深交易所日均成交上升 15.8%，北证本周交 ...

2026 年 03 月 01 日 广信科技等调入北证 50 指数，美伊 局势升温加强通胀交易线 ——北交所策略周报（20260223-20260301） 本周策略观点： 本周市场行情： 北交所新股： 新三板动态： 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 吕靖华 A0230124070002 lvjh@swsresearch.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 板 研 究 新 证 券 证券分析师 刘靖 A0230512070005 liujing@swsresearch.com 王雨晴 A0230522010003 wangyq@swsresearch.com 郑菁华 A0230525060001 zhengjh@swsresearch.com 汪秉涵 A0230525090003 wangbh@swsresearch.com 研究支持 吕靖华 A0230124070002 lvjh@swsresearch.com 联系人 三 专 题 研 究 研 究 报 告 相关研究 - ⚫ 本周北证 50 上涨 0.48%，但节后首周日均成交微降 3.3%，交易气氛尚未回归。1）本 周是马年春节后首个 ...

策略研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【策略周报】 实物再通胀：顺周期五朵金花 ——策略周聚焦 邮箱：zhudongmo@hcyjs.com 相关研究报告 《【华创策略】杠杆资金净流出规模续创 25 年 4 月以来新高——流动性&交易拥挤度&投资者温 度计周报》 2026-02-24 《【华创策略】春节海内外全扫描——策略周聚 焦》 ①顺周期五朵金花（有色/化工/建材/钢铁/机械）：供给约束紧张+需求新旧动 能转换。 ②科创：两会+"十五五"催化，关注近期 ETF 资金流入的通信设备、卫星通 信、机器人等。 风险提示：宏观经济复苏不及预期；海外经济疲弱，可能对相关产业链及国内 出口造成影响；历史经验不代表未来。 策略周报 2026 年 03 月 01 日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：姚佩 邮箱：yaopei@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360522120004 联系人：朱冬墨 2026-02-23 《【华创策略】公募基金仍为当前市场主要增量资 金——流动性&交易拥挤度&投资者温度计周 报》 2026-02-09 《【华创策略】风格之辩——策略周聚焦》 2026-02-08 《【华创证券人工智能研究中心】公募 ...

剩余流动性趋缓背景下，大盘股将跑赢小盘股；全年维度看，科技+顺周期仍是配置主线。对投资者而言，当前时点应把握中长线配置机会，重新审视"成 长"的定义边界。 调整到位信号明确，微观流动性冲击快速出清 市场经历了一轮猛烈但短暂的调整。据华创数据，宽基ETF今年以来累计净流出1.02万亿元，杠杆资金过去5个交易日净流出582亿元，创下去年4月以来新 高。贵金属价格暴跌引发有色金属板块回吐涨幅，叠加监管层上调融资保证金比例释放降温信号，市场风险偏好受到明显抑制。 市场短期剧烈调整后，配置窗口已经打开。在牛市背景下，微观流动性冲击已出清，关注顺周期与地产链的困境反转。 据追风交易台，华创证券2月8日发布的策略周报显示，本轮回撤或已到位——2月2日跌停公司达130家创新高，杠杆资金5日净流出582亿元，市场温度回落 至去年11月水平。 更关键的是投资风格正在发生深刻变化：成长股将优于价值股，但成长机会不再局限于科创板块，顺周期和地产链的困境反转同样值得关注； 但多个指标显示调整已经充分。从投资者情绪看，上证指数在4000点附近的市场温度已接近去年11月的3800点水平；2月2日跌停公司达130家，超过去年11 月21日的 ...

策略研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【策略周报】 风格之辩——策略周聚焦 ❖ 调整或已到位，把握配置区间。 市场三大关注点：行业轮动渐近尾声，风险偏好抑制明显，春节前市场进入存 量博弈。经过短期快速的调整，当前机构普遍关注三大方向，具体来看：1、 春季躁动以来的行业轮动或接近尾声；2、市场风险偏好受到明显抑制；3、春 节前或将进入存量博弈。短期看市场情绪难有大幅提升，结构上轮动可能出现 最后一波加速，关注高股息的稳定红利品种，以及有业绩支撑的确定性板块。 我们在 26/2/3《调整或已到位，把握配置区间》指出，因外部突发事件产生的 风险偏好冲击或已到位。历史上由微观流动性引发的牛市中回撤通常呈现进二 退一。从投交情绪看，当前上证 4000 点左右的市场温度已经接近 25/11 的 3800 点，2/2 跌停公司 130 家，超去年 11/21 的 107 家，创近半年新低；杠杆资金 过去 5 个交易日净流出 582 亿元，超过 25/11 高点的 400 亿元。本轮 ETF 和 杠杆资金流出，以及贵金属价格的大幅波动，更类似微观流动性和突发事件引 发的风险偏好抑制，此类回撤往往在短时间内快速完成下跌，不必过分担 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing clear industry differentiation, with a notable contrast between the steadily rising cyclical "five flowers" and the weakening high dividend yield sector, reflecting the competition for funds driven by technological growth prospects and domestic demand policy stimulation [1]. Group 1: Industry Analysis - The cyclical industries such as non-ferrous metals, chemicals, and building materials have seen a company adjustment ratio of 200%, 171%, and 250% respectively, indicating a positive outlook due to fiscal infrastructure efforts and demand-side stimulus [2]. - The non-bank sector has a company adjustment ratio of 1200%, highlighting the importance of short-term insurance premium growth and mid-term investment income enhancement for performance [2]. - In the technology sector, the adjustment ratios for electric new energy, telecommunications, and electronics are 133%, 163%, and 130% respectively, with a focus on clear performance growth trends in satellite navigation, commercial aerospace, storage devices, optical modules, and circuit boards [2]. Group 2: Economic Perspectives - The core of the physical re-inflation logic is based on three perspectives: price increases must be accompanied by liquidity activation, supply clearing due to anti-involution, and demand-side stimulation [1].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The A-share market is transitioning from a traditional model reliant on real estate and credit impulses to a new paradigm focused on prudent spending, efficient turnover, and equity enhancement, termed "weight loss and muscle gain" [1][2] - The structure of Return on Equity (ROE) in A-shares has undergone a revolutionary change, with the drag from real estate nearing its end, while technology, manufacturing, and dividend sectors are seeing stable increases in ROE [1][2] Core Insights and Arguments - Since 2018, the contribution of ROE from financial and real estate sectors has declined, while ROE in technology (TMT) and high-end manufacturing has significantly increased, from 3% to 7% and from 5% to 6%, respectively [1][7] - Free cash flow is highlighted as a crucial indicator of corporate profitability quality, with A-share non-financial companies generating a stable 20-25 yuan of free cash flow per 100 yuan of EBITDA, a phenomenon not seen in the past 20-30 years [1][13] - The A-share market is shifting from a scenario of "only growing bones, not meat" to one where dividend capabilities are significantly enhanced, leading to a market characterized by more gains and fewer losses [1][15] Important but Overlooked Content - The traditional economic model has shown that real estate and credit impulses significantly impact the stock market, especially during economic downturns, where relaxed real estate policies convert future growth prospects into credit, leading to increased mortgage loans [3][4] - The new paradigm emphasizes direct financing over bank cash financing, which supports long-term asset allocation in stocks, similar to how U.S. residents invest a portion of their income into the stock market through pensions or annuities [5] - The transition from old to new economic drivers has resulted in a notable increase in ROE contributions from technology and high-end manufacturing sectors, while the real estate sector's contribution has diminished to nearly zero [6][9] - The financial and real estate sectors have performed poorly in recent years, with the ROE for the financial sector dropping from 13% in 2018 to 8.8% currently, and the real estate sector experiencing continuous losses [8][11] - Future trends in the A-share market will increasingly rely on emerging industries and high-quality profitability, with sectors like communication, media, electronics, and machinery showing significant ROE increases [12][14] Future Investment Outlook - If dividend repurchase behaviors can be sustained, the overall ROE of A-shares is expected to increase by an additional 3 percentage points over the next decade [14] - The A-share market is projected to become a crucial component of residents' asset allocation, enhancing the market's attractiveness to capital and boosting investor confidence [14][17] - The influx of resident capital into the stock market is expected to stabilize market dynamics, moving away from short-term speculative behaviors to a focus on long-term returns [18][19]

Group 1 - The report highlights that in 2025, global major asset classes showed strong performance, particularly precious metals and equity markets, with gold rising by 63.8% and silver by 158% since the beginning of the year [2][10][13] - Chinese equity assets performed notably well, with the A-share market increasing by 18.3% and Hong Kong stocks by 28.7%, surpassing the performance of US stocks (17.8%) and European stocks (17.4%) [2][10][13] - The report indicates that the bond market saw a slight increase in US Treasury yields (3.4%) while domestic bonds decreased by 1.1%, and oil prices fell by 8.8% [2][10][13] Group 2 - The report notes that the A-share market exhibited a clear preference for technology growth styles, with the Sci-Tech Innovation 50 index rising by 63.1%, the ChiNext 50 by 59.9%, and the ChiNext index by 51.5%, significantly outperforming the CSI 300 (18.4%) and the Shanghai 50 (13.4%) [3][20] - The performance of the technology sector reflects a high market valuation for innovation and growth, indicating strong investor sentiment towards these areas [3][20] Group 3 - The report states that various public funds have rebounded significantly in the bull market, with active equity funds showing median returns of 28.1%, outperforming the CSI 300 by 9.7 percentage points [5][11][23] - The report emphasizes that active management has regained its value in the current market environment, with ordinary stock funds and mixed equity funds yielding 29.2% and 28.5% respectively, while flexible allocation funds yielded 22.1% [5][11][23] Group 4 - The report discusses the easing of external liquidity disturbances and the acceleration of domestic real estate stabilization policies, suggesting that a spring market rally may have begun [6][12] - It highlights sectors to focus on during this market rally, including non-bank financials, technology manufacturing (electronics, new energy), and cyclical sectors (coal, non-ferrous metals) [7][12]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that spring market rallies are often unrelated to the previous year's main themes and tend to favor small-cap growth stocks, with a historical tendency for cyclical and technology manufacturing sectors to lead [10][12][19] - Historical data shows that prior to spring rallies, the market often experiences noticeable declines or fluctuations, with an average increase of 14.2% in the Shanghai Composite Index during the rally period, while the preceding one and three months typically see declines of 6.4% and 3.9% respectively [15][19] - The report emphasizes that policy expectations are the primary driving force behind spring rallies, with significant attention on the Central Economic Work Conference at the end of the year to set the policy direction for the following year [3][19][20] Group 2 - The report identifies that during the past 16 years of spring rallies, sectors such as non-ferrous metals, chemicals, computers, and machinery have consistently ranked among the top performers, highlighting their high elasticity and sensitivity to policy changes [2][10][14] - Defensive or low-elasticity sectors like banking, utilities, food and beverage, real estate, and retail have shown weaker performance during these rallies, indicating a higher risk appetite in the market during such periods [2][10] - The report suggests that the current market adjustment may have reached its limit, with indicators showing a recovery in industry differentiation and a potential end to the high-low cut phenomenon, particularly in sectors like telecommunications, non-ferrous metals, and electronics [4][21]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the structural changes and opportunities in the non-ferrous metals sector, driven by supply constraints and increasing demand from AI and renewable energy [1][3][13] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has released a high-quality development implementation plan for copper, alumina, and gold industries from 2025 to 2027, aiming to optimize structure and curb low-level redundant construction [1] - As of September, the fixed asset investment growth rate in non-ferrous metal smelting and processing has dropped from 23% at the beginning of the year to 0.4%, indicating a slowdown in new capacity additions [1] Group 2 - Supply disruptions in copper mining are expected, with significant projects like Grasberg and Kakula facing production cuts, leading to increased global copper supply interference [1][3] - Long-term exploration investment and capital expenditure reductions suggest that copper concentrate supply will remain tight or decline in the coming years, with a projected supply-demand gap in 2026 [3] - The demand for copper is bolstered by structural factors such as AI computing power, energy system transformation, and grid upgrades, with traditional demand remaining stable [3] Group 3 - The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle may begin in 2026, which could enhance copper's financial attributes and support price increases [3] - Silver has seen a significant price increase of nearly 74% this year, driven by industrial demand from sectors like solar energy and electronics [5] - The aluminum sector is constrained by supply limitations, with expectations for the average price of electrolytic aluminum to be around 22,000 yuan per ton in 2026 [5] Group 4 - The lithium battery sector is experiencing strong growth, with significant increases in global new energy vehicle sales and battery installations, particularly in China [7] - The overall price of lithium battery materials is expected to trend upward in 2026, following a stabilization in 2025 [7] - Investment tools such as ETFs covering non-ferrous metals, including copper and gold, are gaining attention, with specific ETFs offering low fees and exposure to various metals [9][11]