策略研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【华创策略】 大类资产年关盘点 ——策略周聚焦 ❖ 2025 年全球大类资产对比：贵金属、权益市场表现强势 过去两年贵金属持续走强，年初以来黄金涨 63.8%，白银自 11 月底加速上行， 涨幅达 158%，超越黄金。中国权益资产表现突出，A 股和港股分别上涨 18.3% 和 28.7%，显著优于过去三年，并反超美股（17.8%）和欧股（17.4%）。美债 小幅上涨 3.4%，中债下跌 1.1%；原油跌 8.8%，国内房价跌 5.7%；比特币由 前两年领涨转为回调 13.3%。 ❖ 2025 年全球主要股指对比：权益资产普遍上行，新兴市场、科技股优势凸显 相较 22 年普跌及 23–24 年结构性分化，2025 年全球股指普遍回暖，新兴市场 与科技股优势突出。上证指数上涨 18.3%，显著优于 21–23 年低迷表现，自 24 年 924 后稳步修复。今年亚洲市场领涨，韩国综合指数大涨 72.1%，日经 225 涨 27.2%；欧洲相对疲弱，法国 CAC40 和英国富时 100 分别涨 9.8%和 20.8%； 美股延续上涨趋势，纳指与标普 500 分别涨 22.2%和 17 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 【华创策略】 躁动行情何时至——策略周聚焦 从量、价、高低切看，本轮指数调整或已到位 11/21 上证指数跌破 MA60，为近半年首次。历史数据显示牛市中跌破 MA60 前 10 日平均跌幅达 5%，跌破后 10 日仅跌 2%，且 30 日内多收复失地。当前 指数自跌破 MA60 仅微跌 1%，显示调整或已到位。量能方面，全 A 成交额与 换手率分别回落至 16962 亿元和 3.19%，低于历史跌破后 10 日均值（测算成 交额 17147 亿元、换手率 3.38%），显示缩量基本完成。此外，行业分化指标 （前 5-后 5 行业涨幅差）从 10/9 的 69pct 高位回落至 11/21 的 47pct，目前已 回升至 60pct，叠加通信、有色、电新等前期领跌板块反弹，高低切或已结束。 当下需重点关注万科债务展期或在短期内加剧地产风险 尽管万科展期暂避违约，但若融资环境恶化，或引发房企信用连锁反应。当下 核心风险在于可能触发金融机构对国有房企的系统性信任危机，影响已超个体 流动性困境，或重塑国企地产信用评估逻辑，并对宏观流动性构成潜在冲击。 本轮春季躁动的启动可能受内外关键事件所驱 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the structural changes and opportunities in the non-ferrous metals sector, driven by supply constraints and increasing demand from AI and renewable energy [1][3][13] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has released a high-quality development implementation plan for copper, alumina, and gold industries from 2025 to 2027, aiming to optimize structure and curb low-level redundant construction [1] - As of September, the fixed asset investment growth rate in non-ferrous metal smelting and processing has dropped from 23% at the beginning of the year to 0.4%, indicating a slowdown in new capacity additions [1] Group 2 - Supply disruptions in copper mining are expected, with significant projects like Grasberg and Kakula facing production cuts, leading to increased global copper supply interference [1][3] - Long-term exploration investment and capital expenditure reductions suggest that copper concentrate supply will remain tight or decline in the coming years, with a projected supply-demand gap in 2026 [3] - The demand for copper is bolstered by structural factors such as AI computing power, energy system transformation, and grid upgrades, with traditional demand remaining stable [3] Group 3 - The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle may begin in 2026, which could enhance copper's financial attributes and support price increases [3] - Silver has seen a significant price increase of nearly 74% this year, driven by industrial demand from sectors like solar energy and electronics [5] - The aluminum sector is constrained by supply limitations, with expectations for the average price of electrolytic aluminum to be around 22,000 yuan per ton in 2026 [5] Group 4 - The lithium battery sector is experiencing strong growth, with significant increases in global new energy vehicle sales and battery installations, particularly in China [7] - The overall price of lithium battery materials is expected to trend upward in 2026, following a stabilization in 2025 [7] - Investment tools such as ETFs covering non-ferrous metals, including copper and gold, are gaining attention, with specific ETFs offering low fees and exposure to various metals [9][11]

Group 1 - The report emphasizes a shift in investment strategy for Chinese assets from a short-term focus to a long-term perspective, driven by significant changes in long-term factors and a restructuring of the valuation system [2][15][32] - It highlights the advantages of RMB assets from a global perspective, including a stable fiscal environment, a complete industrial chain, a talent pool, and attractive valuations [2][3][15] - The report identifies key points for sustaining growth, focusing on economic construction and the expansion of the middle class, indicating a transition from low prices to a new phase of recovery [2][3][15] Group 2 - The report discusses a new macro paradigm characterized by a shift from quantity-driven growth to quality-driven growth, emphasizing efficient operations and high return on equity (ROE) [3][16] - It notes the completion of the transition from old to new economic drivers, with a decline in the real estate sector's drag on A-share ROE, and a focus on technology and manufacturing sectors [3][16] - The report mentions a change in the investment landscape, where equities are seen as a preservation tool rather than just a financing instrument, leading to improved asset quality and reduced volatility [3][16] Group 3 - The analysis predicts a "re-inflation" phase in the second half of the bull market, driven by improved liquidity, supply-side adjustments, and demand stimulation, with a projected net profit growth of 11.1% for non-financial A-shares in 2026 [4][17] - It outlines the expected performance of the stock market, with a neutral return of 7.8% and an optimistic scenario suggesting a 31.5% return, indicating a strong bullish sentiment [4][17] - The report emphasizes the importance of tracking service consumption subsidies and housing price stabilization as key demand drivers [4][17] Group 4 - The report advocates for a focus on growth quality factors and large-cap growth stocks, suggesting that high-quality growth will outperform pure cash dividends in the current market environment [5][18] - It identifies key sectors for investment, including finance, high-end manufacturing, electronics, and consumer goods, which are expected to lead the market upward [5][18] - The report highlights the importance of technology and cyclical sectors, as well as the potential for overseas expansion and the real estate consumption chain to drive future growth [5][18] Group 5 - The report recommends a diversified investment strategy focusing on four key areas: technology innovation, cyclical sectors, overseas expansion, and the real estate consumption chain [6][19] - It emphasizes the importance of identifying high-potential stocks, referred to as "ten-bagger" opportunities, and building a core portfolio of quality large-cap growth stocks [6][19] - The report suggests that the current market environment presents unique opportunities for investors to capitalize on structural transformations and growth potential [6][19]

Export Analysis - October exports unexpectedly turned negative year-on-year, influenced by base effects, with a two-year average year-on-year growth of 5.5%, similar to September's 5.3%[2] - For Q4, attention should be on the impact of reduced fentanyl tariffs on U.S. exports and the risk of weakening demand from the EU[2] - The core contradiction in exports is global trade volume (external demand), which can be tracked using a leading indicator system[2] Monetary Policy and Market Trends - In October, the central bank purchased 20 billion yuan in bonds, significantly below market expectations, indicating a cautious approach to bond buying[4] - The U.S. Treasury has increased bond supply to boost cash reserves, leading to a rise in short-term dollar financing pressures[5] - The average yield on 10-year government bonds has stabilized around 1.8% following various market influences[4] Investment Strategies - The stock fund total position is at 97.52%, down 54 basis points from last week, indicating a slight reduction in equity exposure[6] - The average return for balanced mixed funds was 0.7%, while stock ETFs averaged 0.43%[6] - The insurance sector has seen 34 instances of stake acquisitions this year, primarily in banking and public utilities, reflecting a focus on high dividend assets[9] Economic Outlook - The leading indicators suggest that export growth may rebound in November and December, with an annual export growth target around 5%[11] - The overall economic environment is expected to improve, with policies aimed at stabilizing asset quality and promoting credit growth[9]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent focus on price-increasing industries, highlighting a shift from financial re-inflation to physical re-inflation, with an emphasis on cyclical industries and essential sectors that are experiencing price increases [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Trends - Recent price increases in essential commodities are attributed to a phenomenon termed "physical re-inflation," with significant attention on cyclical industries such as non-ferrous metals, steel, coal, and petrochemicals [1]. - The market is witnessing a surge in cyclical stocks, driven by expectations of a strong economic cycle in the coming year, particularly in infrastructure projects linked to the five-year planning cycle [2]. - The supply-side constraints due to anti-involution policies are influencing price dynamics, with industries facing greater anti-involution measures showing higher price elasticity [2]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for October rose by 0.2% year-on-year, up from a decline of 0.3% the previous month, indicating a shift in consumer prices [5]. - The Producer Price Index (PPI) showed a month-on-month increase of 0.1%, marking the first rise of the year, although it still reflects a year-on-year decline of 2.1% [8][9]. - The service price growth rate increased from 0.6% to 0.8% year-on-year, driven by seasonal demand and ongoing reforms in medical service pricing [6]. Group 3: Sector Performance - The electric power equipment sector has seen significant capital inflows, with net purchases reaching 483.93 billion yuan, indicating strong market interest [30][31]. - The basic chemical and banking sectors also attracted substantial investments, with net inflows of 216.79 billion yuan and 65.96 billion yuan, respectively [30]. - The storage sector is experiencing price hikes, with NAND flash memory prices increasing by up to 50%, impacting the entire supply chain [10]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The article anticipates continued inflationary pressures from rising commodity prices, although the impact on downstream prices may experience a time lag due to anti-involution measures [9]. - The construction of major infrastructure projects, such as the "Yin Da Ji Min" water diversion project, is expected to stimulate economic growth in the Chengdu Plain economic zone [4].

Group 1 - The report highlights the ongoing "anti-involution" policies that have been catalyzed by recent government actions, which are expected to extend investment durations and shift market dynamics towards supply-side constraints and orderly competition [2][3][4] - The "anti-involution" policies are now integrated into the five-year plan, indicating a shift in focus from short-term inventory cycles to medium-term capacity cycles, which is anticipated to positively influence prices and performance in the coming year [3][4][14] - The report notes that the current bull market is transitioning from liquidity-driven to inflation-driven, with M1 and corporate cash recovery providing a conducive environment for inflation to return, thereby enhancing the elasticity of tightly supplied cyclical products [4][5][17] Group 2 - The report identifies specific industries that are likely to benefit from the "anti-involution" policies, particularly those with tight supply conditions, including non-ferrous metals, steel, coal, petrochemicals, and certain consumer sectors [6][26] - It emphasizes the importance of monitoring cyclical industries that are undervalued yet exhibit high elasticity, such as coal, steel, and construction materials, which are expected to see significant profit growth as the economic environment improves [5][26] - The report suggests that the recovery of commodity prices, such as polysilicon and coal, indicates a potential bottoming out of prices, which could lead to a new cycle of profit growth driven by the "anti-involution" measures [26]

Core Viewpoint - The central government emphasizes anti-involution policies in high-end manufacturing sectors like electronics and semiconductors to enhance international competitiveness and secure a favorable position in global competition [1] Group 1: Industry Insights - Anti-involution policies combined with corporate cash activation are shifting the bull market's main driver towards physical re-inflation, benefiting industries like electronics and semiconductors through supply-side optimization [1] - The short-term performance of the sci-tech sector is active, with a significant increase in the distribution of five-fold stocks in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and the Growth Enterprise Market [1] - In the medium term, attention is directed towards cyclical industries with tight supply, such as consumer electronics and optical optoelectronics within technology, where inventory and capital expenditure are at low levels, potentially benefiting leading companies' profit recovery due to increased industry concentration [1] Group 2: Market Trends - Anti-involution policies are expected to drive a rebound in inflation expectations, with the electronics and semiconductor sectors showing more resilience in growth styles amid breakthroughs in AI, the Sino-U.S. tech competition, and a global interest rate reduction cycle [1] - The Semiconductor Equipment ETF (159516) tracks the semiconductor materials and equipment index (931743), focusing on upstream materials and equipment in the semiconductor industry, reflecting the overall performance of key enterprises in this sector [1] - The index covers high-tech barrier and growth characteristic sub-sectors, serving as an important reference for investors to grasp opportunities in the semiconductor industry [1] Group 3: Investment Products - Investors without stock accounts can consider the Guotai Zhongzheng Semiconductor Materials and Equipment Theme ETF Initiated Link A (019632) and Link C (019633) [1]

Group 1: Policy Background and Market Dynamics - The central government emphasizes the importance of anti-involution policies to eliminate low-price and disorderly competition among enterprises, aiming to enhance the international influence of high-end manufacturing [1] - The shift from a liquidity-driven bull market to a physical re-inflation and anti-involution bull market indicates a change in market dynamics, with future PPI potentially rising, suggesting a focus on corporate profits and inflation recovery [1] Group 2: Market Stability and Investment Trends - Stabilizing the stock and real estate markets is crucial for improving residents' asset-liability balance, with a noticeable trend of residents converting savings into financial and physical investments as the stock market stabilizes [2] - Improved corporate cash flow and the activation of M1 provide liquidity support, laying the foundation for price recovery [2] Group 3: Investment Strategies and Sector Focus - In an environment of rising inflation expectations, the anti-leverage allocation strategy becomes increasingly important, favoring large-cap stocks over small-cap stocks and growth stocks over value stocks [3] - Cyclical sectors such as non-ferrous metals, chemicals, and consumer goods are benefiting significantly from the implementation of anti-involution policies, with notable increases in ETF holdings in these areas [3] - Investors should focus on cyclical industries like non-ferrous metals, steel, chemicals, and consumer goods, which are expected to benefit from improved supply-demand relationships under the anti-involution policy [4] - The technology sector, particularly in AI breakthroughs and US-China tech competition, presents significant investment opportunities, especially in consumer electronics and optical electronics with strong global competitive advantages [4]

Group 1 - The cash flow index has shown weak performance in 2025, primarily due to the profit fluctuations in the coal and petrochemical industries leading to valuation adjustments [5][10][29] - The absolute return of the cash flow index is significantly lower compared to historical averages, with the National and CSI cash flow total return indices yielding 4.1% and 4.6% respectively, while the broader market (Wande All A) returned 13% [5][10] - The banking sector's absence has been a major drag on the cash flow index's relative performance against the dividend index, which has benefited from strong bank contributions [29][30] Group 2 - The value strategy should not only focus on the level of ROE but also on the stability of ROE to enhance returns and mitigate volatility during periods of declining profitability [7][18] - The Huachuang strategy's cash flow combination has achieved a cumulative return of 31% from April 2024 to August 2025, outperforming benchmarks significantly [7][20] - The cash flow index tends to favor large-cap stocks, which has contributed to its underperformance in small-cap favorable market conditions [30][31] Group 3 - The expectation of a return to inflation could lead to the cash flow index outperforming both the dividend index and the broader market, as historical patterns suggest [31] - The cash flow index's performance is expected to improve as M1 growth has been rising for three consecutive quarters, indicating a potential shift in asset allocation logic [31]