文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 股票基金的时间，不到6个月。 而股票市场，一轮牛熊市，需要的时间 长度,经常在3-5年以上。 在过去的十几年里，3星级及以上的上涨 行情，出现的时间有：2021年、2018年 初、2015年、2010年、2007年。 ·其中有达到1星级的大牛市，例如2007 年、2015年； ·也有只达到3星级的小牛市，例如2018 年、2021年。 中间间隔,有长有短。所以最终能坚持 一轮牛熊市、在股票基金上赚到收益的 人，也是少数。 除此之外，频繁交易也会增加投资者的 交易成本,而交易成本的提高，也会减 少收益。 ▼点击阅读原 文，免费学习大额家庭资产配置课程 ...

Market Overview - The overall market showed a slight increase, with the A-share index rising approximately 18% and the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index increasing by 30% this year [9][10]. - Both large-cap and small-cap stocks experienced minor gains, with a strong performance in value style stocks [2][3][4]. Investment Performance - Most stock funds have also seen gains, with the actively managed selection rising by 27% from the beginning of the year to the end of October [12]. - Over 94% of investors in actively managed selections are profitable, indicating effective investment strategies [16]. Retail Investor Challenges - Despite the overall market uptrend, a significant portion of retail investors are still facing losses, with over 40% reporting negative returns in 2025 [18]. - Historical data shows that even during bull markets, many investors have experienced substantial losses due to poor timing and market entry points [20][26]. Market Behavior Insights - The tendency for retail investors to enter the market during high points leads to increased losses, as many accounts were opened during previous bull markets in 2007 and 2015 [27]. - The average holding period for small retail investors is only 5-10 days, compared to 3-5 years for institutional investors, highlighting a lack of patience in investment strategies [36]. Investment Philosophy - A shift from a trading mindset to a business ownership mindset is recommended, emphasizing the importance of viewing stock investments as ownership in companies rather than mere trading opportunities [5][6]. - The concept of value investing is reinforced, suggesting that investors should focus on acquiring shares of fundamentally sound companies and holding them for the long term [5][6].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent performance of global stock markets, the implications of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, and the behavioral patterns of retail investors that often lead to losses during bull markets. Group 1: Market Performance - Global stock market indices experienced an overall increase this week [2] - The US stock market rose by 1.2% this week [3] - Non-US markets saw a slight increase [4] Group 2: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - The recent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve has positively impacted the market [5] - However, the benefits of rate cuts are often anticipated before the actual announcement [6] - Markets had already priced in the expectation of rate cuts in July and August, leading to significant gains in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [8] Group 3: Retail Investor Behavior - The statement that bull markets are a primary reason for retail investor losses may seem counterintuitive but reflects reality [13] - Investors tend to open accounts and invest during bull markets, often at high prices, leading to losses when the market corrects [20][21] - The tendency to chase rising stocks and sell during downturns contributes to retail investor losses [25] Group 4: Trading Frequency and Investment Strategy - Frequent trading can lead to missed opportunities, especially in a structurally bullish market where different sectors lead at different times [26] - Investors who trade based on short-term movements may find themselves losing money despite overall market gains [32] - A shift from a trading mindset to a business ownership mindset is recommended for better long-term investment outcomes [36] Group 5: Global Stock Market Valuation - The article includes a star rating system for global stock markets, indicating periods of undervaluation [37] - Following a significant drop in April 2025, the global stock market rebounded but remains at a lower valuation [38] Group 6: Investment Products - There are currently no global stock index funds available in mainland China, but a simulated global index investment strategy is offered through a diversified portfolio [40] - The company has launched a "Global Index Advisory Portfolio" that includes various stock market index funds [41] Group 7: Book Release - A new edition of the book "The Intelligent Investor" has been released, which has gained significant popularity [46][48] - The book emphasizes the long-term benefits of stock investments and provides insights into various asset classes [50][51]

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of financial education and awareness during the Financial Education Promotion Week from September 15 to September 21, 2025 [2] - It highlights the risks associated with frequent trading, labeling it as a "profit devourer" due to overconfidence among investors [3] - The content suggests that investors should avoid impulsive trading behaviors that can lead to significant losses [3] Group 2 - The article is sourced from the "Oriental Fortune Securities" Investor Education Base, indicating a focus on educating investors about market behaviors [6] - It mentions the role of regulatory bodies such as the National Financial Supervision Administration, the People's Bank of China, and the China Securities Regulatory Commission in promoting financial literacy [2]

Core Insights - The article highlights the frequency and magnitude of drawdowns in a bull market, emphasizing that significant pullbacks occur regularly even during upward trends [2][3] - It stresses the importance of understanding and accepting the inevitability of drawdowns in investing, which can help investors maintain confidence and avoid panic selling [5][7] Summary by Sections Drawdown Statistics - A user analyzed the Wande All A Index, revealing 11 instances of drawdowns of 5% or more from April 2019 to December 2021, indicating that such occurrences are common, roughly every three months [2][3] Investor Psychology - The article discusses the psychological challenges investors face during bull markets, particularly the need for strong conviction to withstand significant drawdowns, with three instances in the early bull market showing declines around 15% [3][5] Investment Strategy - It argues that frequent trading in an attempt to "do something" can lead to losses, as it often detracts from decision quality and increases psychological strain [7] - The article advocates for thorough research and pre-planning as a more effective approach to investing, especially during periods of strong market performance [7]

Core Viewpoint - Retail investors often enter the market with high hopes but frequently end up facing significant losses due to emotional trading and lack of strategy [1][4]. Group 1: Reasons for Retail Investor Losses - Frequent trading can lead to high transaction fees, which can consume up to 20% of the initial capital [6]. - Human psychology plays a major role in losses; investors may feel like experts during market upswings but hold onto losing positions too long during downturns [6]. - Retail investors are often not truly investing but rather gambling, as their strategies resemble betting rather than informed decision-making [9]. Group 2: Investment Guidelines - Avoid greed; aiming for unrealistic returns can lead to significant losses, while a 10% annual return is already considered exceptional [8]. - Understand that the information available to retail investors is often outdated, as institutional investors have access to advanced tools and data, allowing them to act before retail investors [9].