以下文章来源于晓芳聊财经 ，作者王晓芳团队 晓芳聊财经 . 说商业奇闻、讲品牌故事、人话解读行业内幕。王晓芳，壹创新商学创始人，20年企业管理咨询经验， 链接赋能16万家企业。聚景资本管理合伙人，投资中信建设、喜马拉雅、金维制药等众多项目。 来源｜晓芳聊财经（ XF-SZC ） 图源丨Midjourney 不是说现在经济不景气，大厂裁员，好多人都失业了么？ 为什么热门景点，依然人挤人；就连小众景点也排起了长龙，目光所及全是人。 据数据显示，我国2024年全年国内出游人次达56.15亿，较2023年增加7.24亿人次，同比增长 14.8%。 而2025年上半年，国内居民出游人次达32.85亿，同比增长20.6%。预计2025年全年将突破60亿人 次。 你说经济不好，为什么旅行的人却越来越多呢？ 难道大家都很有钱，唯独自己没有钱？ 其实，在经济不景气的背景下，旅游人数反而增加的现象看似矛盾，实则反映了消费行为、社会心理 和行业策略的多重变化。 旅游人数增长的4大原因 几千块一个月，根本花不完。 出门旅行虽然也有些消费，但相比结婚、房子、车子、孩子这些消费，就相当于买只口红而已。 经济学中有个"口红效应"，就是指在 ...

Core Insights - The tourism industry is experiencing a surge in visitor numbers and spending, but the accommodation and dining sectors are facing severe profit declines, indicating a disconnect between revenue growth and actual profitability [1][3][4] Group 1: Profit Discrepancies - Beijing's tourism saw 180 million visitors and 338.1 billion yuan in spending, yet the accommodation sector's profits plummeted by 92.9%, with only 5.98 million yuan in total profit from 1,613 enterprises [1][4] - Shanghai reported a 9.5-fold increase in profits for the second quarter, but this was misleading as the first quarter's losses were not accounted for, leading to a 4.3% revenue decline when combined [3][4] Group 2: Changing Consumer Behavior - Despite increased visitor numbers, average spending per visitor in Beijing rose only 6.2%, indicating a trend towards more budget-conscious travel [4][5] - The disappearance of business travelers has significantly impacted high-end hotels, with a 28% drop in business bookings, as companies cut costs and employees opt for budget accommodations [5][6] Group 3: Rising Costs and Competition - The accommodation and dining sectors are grappling with rising operational costs, including rent and wages, while revenues are declining, leading to unsustainable business models [6][7] - The restaurant industry is facing intense competition, with a significant increase in the number of establishments leading to aggressive pricing strategies that further erode profitability [6][7] Group 4: Strategies for Recovery - To overcome the current challenges, the industry must shift from a reliance on foot traffic to creating unique value propositions, such as differentiated experiences and offerings [7][8] - Government support measures, such as rent reductions and digital transformation subsidies, are essential to help struggling businesses survive the current downturn [7][8]

Core Insights - The travel preferences of young people in China are shifting significantly towards independent travel, with 52.3% favoring free travel over traditional group tours, which only attract 26.8% of this demographic [3][6]. Group 1: Changing Travel Preferences - Young travelers are increasingly opting for personalized travel experiences, often planning their own itineraries and seeking unique destinations [5][8]. - The trend of "拼假" (combining vacation days) is prevalent among young people, allowing them to extend their holidays and explore popular destinations like Beijing, Shanghai, and Chengdu [3][6]. - A significant 55.3% of young people prefer immersive travel experiences, while 41.9% are interested in off-the-beaten-path locations [6]. Group 2: Industry Response - The tourism industry is adapting to these changes by designing more flexible travel products that cater to the desires of younger travelers, moving away from rigid itineraries [7][8]. - Companies are focusing on creating personalized travel experiences, including options for self-guided tours and unique accommodations, to meet the evolving preferences of their customers [9]. - Marketing strategies are shifting towards social media platforms popular with younger audiences, such as Xiaohongshu and Douyin, to better engage this demographic [9].

Core Viewpoint - The commercial property market in Hong Kong is experiencing a significant increase in transaction volume, particularly in the industrial and commercial sectors, while the retail sector shows a more stable growth in transaction volume but a decline in transaction value [1][6]. Transaction Volume and Value - In the first half of 2025, the retail market recorded 503 transactions, a year-on-year increase of 9.3% compared to 460 transactions in the same period of 2024 [6]. - Despite the increase in transaction volume, the total transaction value for the retail market was only HKD 59.26 billion, representing a year-on-year decrease of approximately 42.4% from HKD 102.91 billion [6]. Market Dynamics - The retail market is characterized by a "volume up, value down" trend, attributed to significant price declines in recent years, leading to large properties being sold at lower prices [1]. - The vacancy rate in the four core districts (Central, Causeway Bay, Tsim Sha Tsui, and Mong Kok) reached a four-and-a-half-year high of 12.1% in Q1 2025, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from six months prior [1]. Rental and Price Trends - The rental index for private retail buildings fell by 2.9% in the first five months of 2025, while the selling price index decreased by 3.2% during the same period [2][12]. - The overall commercial property prices are expected to decline by approximately 5% to 10% throughout 2025 due to ongoing market pressures [7]. Consumer Behavior and Market Adaptation - Changes in consumer habits, influenced by immigration trends and shifts in local demographics, have led to a decline in high-end retail expansion and an increase in the closure of chain brands [3]. - New and unique brands are taking advantage of the increased vacancy rates, with notable examples including a flagship store themed around soccer star Cristiano Ronaldo and a furniture store under Alibaba [3]. Future Outlook - The commercial property market is anticipated to maintain a stable transaction volume of around 1,000 transactions for the year, reflecting a year-on-year increase of about 5% [6]. - The ongoing "event economy" and upcoming major events are expected to attract more visitors to Hong Kong, potentially stabilizing the retail market [7].

Group 1 - During the "May Day" holiday, approximately 1.1 million travelers visited Hong Kong, representing a year-on-year increase of 22% [1][3] - Among the visitors, mainland travelers increased by about 20%, while non-mainland travelers saw a growth of approximately 30% [1][3] - On May 2, the peak day for mainland visitors, there were 267,000 arrivals, marking a year-on-year increase of around 40% [3] Group 2 - The influx of tourists has positively impacted various industries, boosting business and economic confidence in Hong Kong [3] - The Chief Executive of Hong Kong, John Lee, emphasized the need for the government and industry to adapt to changing tourist patterns and develop new tourism resources, such as eco-tourism and cultural experiences [3]