Core Viewpoint - The glass supply and demand situation is deteriorating in the first half of 2025, leading to a decline in prices, with the market expected to remain weak in the second half of the year [1] Supply Analysis - Glass daily melting capacity is projected to fluctuate between 155,000 to 159,000 tons, with a slight decline expected if profit levels are maintained [1] - In the second half of 2024, some production lines will undergo cold repairs, reducing daily melting capacity to 158,000 tons by the end of the year [1] - Current daily melting capacity is at a relatively low level compared to recent years, with varying profit and loss situations across different fuel production lines [1] Demand Analysis - Glass demand is closely linked to real estate completions, with a 20% year-on-year decline in new construction in 2023, leading to a forecasted decrease in completions in 2025 [1] - From January to May 2025, glass demand decreased by 8.0% year-on-year, with a slow recovery in April but overall weak performance during the peak season [1] - The demand for glass is expected to remain weak due to the anticipated decline in real estate completions in 2025 [1] Inventory Situation - High inventory levels have accumulated due to low daily melting capacity and weak demand from January to May 2025, particularly in Hubei province [1] - Effective inventory reduction will require significant cold repairs or a noticeable improvement in demand [1] Price Trends - Glass prices have experienced significant declines, with the market going through four phases in the first half of 2025, including a rebound in late March followed by a sharp drop due to low demand and high inventory levels [1] - The monthly price structure is expected to maintain a contango format, with the market's outlook for future demand remaining pessimistic [1]

国泰君安期货研究所·张驰 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011243 日期：2025年6月8日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 纯碱：供应、 库存 05 纯碱：价格、 利润 06 国泰君安期货·能源化工 玻璃纯碱周度报告 01 玻璃：供应 端情况介绍 02 玻璃：价格 与利润 03 玻璃：库存 及下游开工 光伏玻璃： 价格与利润、 04 CONTENTS 产能与库存 第三、轻重碱价差偏低、今年出口较好、库存集中度较高等因素目前只能认为是潜在支撑。需要有玻璃好转带动纯碱好转 因素支撑，潜在利多因素才能发酵。 玻璃观点：短线反弹 中期震荡市 第一，短期估值偏低因素导致价格在低位不稳定，价格和持仓都大幅变化，反应的是市场参与方的一种心态： 未来或下降空间有限。在现货端近期成交也有好转，当然未来梅雨季节可能会有短暂影响。就中期而言需要 注意6月地产偿债高峰因素、湖北仓单定价对盘面压制因素，暂不宜对玻璃过度高看，但低位下跌空间也有限， 长期看需要注意09 ...

摘 要： 供需关系：当前浮法玻璃企业利润不佳，本周有产线存放水预 期，暂无点火及出玻璃的情况下，周度产量预计下降。浮法玻璃终端 需求仍偏弱，下游深加工企业订单偏弱，浮法玻璃企业库存小幅下降。 预计玻璃价格近期震荡偏弱，09合约上方压力1000一线。建议短线高 抛低吸，注意止损。 宁证期货投资咨询中心 期货交易咨询业务资格： 宁证期货投资咨询中心 期货交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1775 号 作者姓名：蒯三可 作者姓名：蒯三可 期货从业资格号：F3040522 期货从业资格号：F03040522 期货交易咨询从业证号：Z0015369 邮箱：kuaisanke@nzfco.com 风险提示：下游深加工企业订单回升超预期缓慢 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 企业库存较稳，需求仍偏弱 证监许可【2011】1775 号 期货投资咨询从业证号：Z0015369 邮箱：kuaisanke@nzfco.com 电话：025-52865121 | 第1章 | 行情回顾 | | 4 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 第2章 | 价格影响因素分析 | | 5 | | 第3章 | 行情展 ...

Group 1 - Recent recovery in glass spot transaction volume, with some domestic regions achieving daily sales rates exceeding 200%, leading to a balanced inventory situation [1] - The production cost for coal-based glass production lines is approximately 1050 RMB/ton, while those using petroleum coke are around 1100 RMB/ton, indicating limited downside potential for current futures prices [1] - The current inventory structure shows a decline in market transaction activity, with downstream sectors focusing on inventory digestion, resulting in low purchasing demand [1] Group 2 - As of now, there are 286 float glass production lines in the country, with 221 in operation and a daily melting capacity of 157,405 tons, reflecting an industry capacity utilization rate of 80.50% [2] - The supply of glass has significantly decreased compared to the same period last year, placing current market supply at a near five-year low, while total demand has also declined [2] - The current glass spot prices have fallen below the production costs of most production lines, indicating potential for futures price rebound, although sustainability of such rebound remains weak [2]

企业库存上升，需求仍偏弱 摘 要： 供需关系：当前浮法玻璃企业利润较稳，本周有产线计划放水， 虽有企业存热修后产量恢复预期，整体来看，周内产量或将呈下降趋 势。浮法玻璃终端需求仍偏弱，下游深加工企业订单偏弱，浮法玻璃 企业库存上升。预计玻璃价格近期震荡偏弱，09合约上方压力1080 一线。建议短线逢高做空，注意止损。 宁证期货投资咨询中心 期货交易咨询业务资格： 宁证期货投资咨询中心 期货交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1775 号 作者姓名：蒯三可 作者姓名：蒯三可 期货从业资格号：F3040522 期货从业资格号：F03040522 期货交易咨询从业证号：Z0015369 邮箱：kuaisanke@nzfco.com 风险提示：下游深加工企业订单回升超预期缓慢 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 证监许可【2011】1775 号 期货投资咨询从业证号：Z0015369 邮箱：kuaisanke@nzfco.com 电话：025-52865121 | 第1章 | 行情回顾 | 4 | | --- | --- | --- | | 第2章 | 价格影响因素分析 | 5 | | 第3章 | 行情展望与投 ...