2025年，在产业利润持续压缩的背景下，玻璃行业产能出现明显缩减。据卓创数据统计，截至11月底， 预估全国浮法玻璃生产线共计283条，在产217条，日熔量共计155155吨(个别产线日熔较准)，较上月减 少5400吨，同比减少2.71%，行业产能利用率为80.13%。 从年内市场行情来看，随着反内卷政策的推进及部分生产线冷修，玻璃价格多次出现阶段性的快速反 弹，但这种突发的供应端变化往往给市场带来短期冲击，因下游订单长期偏弱，反弹缺乏持续性，甚至 价格会快速回落至前期低点。总体来看，年内玻璃价格持续呈现低迷状态。 库存方面，高库存一直是阻碍玻璃期货价格企稳的关键因素。全国浮法玻璃厂内库存处于高位，显著高 于去年同期。 综上所述，未来玻璃整体供需格局仍偏宽松，若无政策提振需求，则玻璃价格反弹空间有限。(作者单 位：齐盛期货) ...

Core Viewpoint - Recent glass prices have shown signs of stabilization, but the sustainability of this rebound needs further observation [1] Supply Side - There are rumors regarding supply-side changes, such as the Shahe area planning to suspend four coal-fired production lines for technical upgrades, with a daily melting capacity of approximately 2,350 tons, all of which are small sheet production lines [1] - After the upgrades, three production lines with a capacity of about 3,650 tons per day will gradually resume operations, although the specific resumption time may vary due to regional policies [1] - Some companies in Hubei may also face potential shutdowns due to cash flow issues, indicating that short-term supply changes could trigger the next market trend [1] Demand Side - Current demand remains weak, with low new construction and completion data in the real estate sector further constraining actual glass consumption [1] - End-user procurement is characterized by a cautious wait-and-see attitude [1] - In the short term, if supply-side issues escalate, prices may stabilize; however, in the medium to long term, attention should be paid to actual capacity reductions and the impact of macro policy improvements [1] - Continuous contraction in supply could drive prices upward, but the ongoing weakness in demand remains a significant risk [1]

Core Viewpoint - The glass market is experiencing weak fluctuations in prices, with some regions seeing price declines in the spot market. The market is caught in a stalemate between production cut expectations and weak demand realities, leading to intensified competition [1] Supply Side - The supply side remains relatively stable in production rhythm, but spot prices continue to decline, resulting in continuous inventory accumulation by companies. This breaks the usual post-holiday inventory reduction pattern, becoming a significant factor suppressing prices [1] - There is a need to monitor the actual impact of anti-involution policies on production capacity and the progress of industrial optimization adjustments. A substantial contraction in supply could create opportunities for a temporary price rebound [1] Demand Side - The demand side shows weakness, with deep processing enterprises experiencing a significant year-on-year decline in order days. Additionally, the new construction and completion data in the real estate sector are sluggish, further restricting actual glass consumption [1] - End-user procurement remains cautious and observant, reflecting a lack of confidence in the market despite macro-level expectations of policy benefits and potential demand recovery during peak seasons [1] Market Outlook - In the short term, prices are likely to continue hovering at low levels, awaiting a directional breakthrough. In the medium to long term, the overall upward potential remains constrained by the strength of demand recovery [1]

Core Viewpoint - The glass prices have been declining since August due to reduced market enthusiasm and an oversupply situation, despite a brief rebound in late July [1] Price Trends - After reaching a five-month high on July 25, the main glass futures contract price has dropped by over 300 yuan per ton [1] - As of August 6, the national average price of float glass was 1264.28 yuan per ton, down 36.57 yuan per ton from the recent peak on August 1 [1] Market Analysis - The previous rise in float glass prices was driven by a combination of rising futures prices and low social inventory, leading to emotional concentrated replenishment [1] - The supply-demand imbalance remains unresolved, with traditional peak season demand expectations not being met, causing a return to fundamental pricing [1] Inventory and Supply Dynamics - Recent expectations of traditional peak season demand have not materialized, leading to increased inventory levels among manufacturers and a price decline [1] - Some regions are experiencing a rapid increase in manufacturer inventory, indicating a need to digest existing stock [1] Future Outlook - The current situation shows varied downstream inventory levels, with some still holding significant stock, suggesting a need for time to digest [1] - Float glass manufacturers may face increased inventory pressure, leading to expectations of prices remaining stable but slightly weak in the short term [1]

Core Viewpoint - The glass supply and demand situation is deteriorating in the first half of 2025, leading to a decline in prices, with the market expected to remain weak in the second half of the year [1] Supply Analysis - Glass daily melting capacity is projected to fluctuate between 155,000 to 159,000 tons, with a slight decline expected if profit levels are maintained [1] - In the second half of 2024, some production lines will undergo cold repairs, reducing daily melting capacity to 158,000 tons by the end of the year [1] - Current daily melting capacity is at a relatively low level compared to recent years, with varying profit and loss situations across different fuel production lines [1] Demand Analysis - Glass demand is closely linked to real estate completions, with a 20% year-on-year decline in new construction in 2023, leading to a forecasted decrease in completions in 2025 [1] - From January to May 2025, glass demand decreased by 8.0% year-on-year, with a slow recovery in April but overall weak performance during the peak season [1] - The demand for glass is expected to remain weak due to the anticipated decline in real estate completions in 2025 [1] Inventory Situation - High inventory levels have accumulated due to low daily melting capacity and weak demand from January to May 2025, particularly in Hubei province [1] - Effective inventory reduction will require significant cold repairs or a noticeable improvement in demand [1] Price Trends - Glass prices have experienced significant declines, with the market going through four phases in the first half of 2025, including a rebound in late March followed by a sharp drop due to low demand and high inventory levels [1] - The monthly price structure is expected to maintain a contango format, with the market's outlook for future demand remaining pessimistic [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Views Glass - Short - term: The glass market is expected to have a short - term rebound due to low valuation. The spot market has seen improved recent transactions, but the upcoming rainy season may have a short - term impact. - Medium - term: It is a volatile market. Attention should be paid to the real - estate debt repayment peak in June and the suppression of the Hubei warehouse receipts on the market. The upside is limited, but so is the downside. - Long - term: The 09 contract, a peak - season contract, is priced at a large loss, indicating high future volatility. - Bullish factors: Policy support for real - estate acquisition, increased government financial support, enhanced expectations for the completion of pre - sold housing, low spot prices (below the 25% historical percentile), long - term losses of manufacturers, and peak - season expectations for the 09 contract. - Bearish factors: The real - estate market is unlikely to have a substantial improvement, and there is still significant inventory pressure in Hubei, and the trading sector depends on the real - estate market's continuous improvement [6]. 纯碱 - Short - term: The market is expected to rebound due to low valuation, but the spot price is difficult to increase, and the futures increase leads to a weakening basis, resulting in greater delivery pressure. - Medium - term: It is a volatile market. The core factors are high production and high inventory, with limited long - term shortage expectations. The cost collapse pressure is not fully reflected in the price. The expected production reduction in June is weak, but July or August may be the next maintenance peak. - Potential supporting factors: Low price difference between light and heavy soda, good exports this year, and high inventory concentration, but they need the improvement of the glass market to ferment [7]. Summary by Directory Glass: Supply - side Situation Introduction - Cold - repaired production lines in 2025 have a total daily melting capacity of 8010 tons/day [10]. - Ignited production lines in 2025 have a total daily melting capacity of 9210 tons/day [11]. - Potential new ignition production lines have a total daily melting capacity of 13000 tons/day, with some planned for 2025 and others with undetermined ignition times [13]. - Potential复产 ignition production lines have a total daily melting capacity of 7830 tons, mainly concentrated in South and Southwest China [14]. - Potential cold - repaired production lines have a total daily melting capacity of 7850 tons/day, with various planned cold - repair times [16]. - The glass industry's production reduction space in the first half of the year is expected to be limited, with the current in - production capacity at around 156,000 tons/day, a peak of 178,000 tons/day in 2021, and a recent low of 148,000 - 150,000 tons/day [17][18]. Glass: Price and Profit - Recent transactions have slightly declined, with little overall change. The price in Shahe is around 1140 - 1180 yuan/ton, 1000 - 1100 yuan/ton in Hubei (some manufacturers reduced prices by 40 yuan/ton), and 1280 - 1400 yuan/ton in East China (some manufacturers reduced prices by 20 - 40 yuan/ton) [24][28]. - The futures market has rebounded, the basis is weak, and the month - spread is stable. The spot market is stable, and the month - spread has limited upside due to near - month warehouse receipts [30][33]. - The profit of glass production using petroleum coke as fuel is around - 111 yuan/ton, and that using natural gas and coal as fuel is between - 170 and 91 yuan/ton [34][38]. Glass: Inventory and Downstream Start - up - During the Dragon Boat Festival, weak market transactions led to an increase in inventory across the country. Large manufacturers have better order situations than small ones [41][43]. - The price difference between Central China and Jiangsu and Zhejiang has returned to normal and is widening, which is beneficial for inventory reduction in Hubei [47]. Photovoltaic Glass: Price, Profit, Capacity, and Inventory - Prices are falling, recent orders are slightly decreasing, glass manufacturers' shipments are average, and local inventory is increasing. The price of 2.0mm coated panels is around 12.5 yuan/square meter, a 3.85% month - on - month decline, and the 3.2mm coated panels are around 20.5 yuan/square meter, a 2.38% month - on - month decline [54][56]. - The market is gradually weakening, and it may enter a production - reduction cycle. Market transactions have slightly declined, and inventory has slightly increased, with the sample inventory days at about 29.72 days, a 1.94% month - on - month increase [57][63]. 纯碱: Supply and Maintenance - Maintenance of soda ash has almost reached its peak, and there may be less maintenance in June. The current capacity utilization rate is 80.8% (78.6% last week), and the weekly production of heavy soda ash is 382,200 tons [66][68]. - The inventory is around 1.627 million tons, with 79,000 tons of light soda ash and 837,000 tons of heavy soda ash [75]. 纯碱: Price and Profit - Prices in most regions remain unchanged. The nominal prices in Shahe and Hubei are around 1250 - 1350 yuan/ton [84][85]. - The basis is weak in the short term, and the spot market fluctuates within a narrow range. The market is influenced by the impact of delivery goods and maintenance. - The profit of the joint - alkali method in East China (excluding Shandong) is 178 yuan/ton, and that of the ammonia - alkali method in North China is 50 yuan/ton [90].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current profit of float glass enterprises is poor. With the expectation of water storage in production lines this week and no ignition or glass output, the weekly output is expected to decline. The terminal demand for float glass remains weak, the orders of downstream deep - processing enterprises are weak, and the inventory of float glass enterprises has decreased slightly. It is expected that the glass price will fluctuate weakly in the near future, and the upper pressure of the 09 contract is around 1000. Short - term high - selling and low - buying are recommended, and stop - loss should be noted [2][23] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Market Review - The spot price of domestic float glass is on a downward trend, with weak overall demand. Due to the rainy season in the South, the market trading is poor. Some enterprises offer discounts to promote sales, and the market price continues to decline. In the Shahe area, factory shipments are average, and dealers mainly sell inventory. The Beijing - Tianjin - Tangshan market performs okay, but there are differences in the shipment of different manufacturers. The focus of the East China market has declined slightly, with weak demand and the impact of low - priced glass from the periphery. Most enterprises in the South are mainly focused on shipping due to high inventory [8] Chapter 2: Analysis of Price Influencing Factors 2.1 Supply - demand Analysis - **Supply - side Analysis - Expected Supply Decline**: As of May 29, the national float glass output was 1.1041 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 0.64% and a year - on - year decrease of 8.25%. The average operating rate of the float glass industry was 75.68%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.34 percentage points; the average capacity utilization rate was 78.62%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.42 percentage points. With the expectation of water storage in production lines this week and no ignition or glass output, the weekly output is expected to decline. The weekly average profit of float glass using natural gas as fuel was - 167.97 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 7.14 yuan/ton; that using coal - made gas was 100.10 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 15.67 yuan/ton; and that using petroleum coke was - 107.04 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 20.00 yuan/ton [12] - **Demand - side Analysis - Weak Orders from Deep - processing Enterprises**: As of May 15, 2025, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises was 10.4 days, a month - on - month increase of 0.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.2%. The terminal demand for float glass remains weak. From January to April 2025, the cumulative real - estate completion area was 156.4785 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 16.9%. In April 2025, the inventory warning index of Chinese automobile dealers was 59.8%, a year - on - year increase of 0.4 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 5.2 percentage points. The manufacturing PMI in April was 49.0%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points from the previous month [14][15] - **Inventory Analysis - Slight Inventory Reduction of Float Glass Enterprises**: As of May 29, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 67.662 million weight boxes, a month - on - month decrease of 107,000 weight boxes and a month - on - month decrease of 0.16%, a year - on - year increase of 14.06%. The inventory days were 30.4 days, a decrease of 0.2 days from the previous period. The overall shipment in North China was average, and the inventory in East China increased slightly [17] 2.2 Position Analysis - As of May 30, the total long - position volume of the top 20 members in glass futures was 910,353, a decrease of 57,489; the total short - position volume was 1,122,204, a decrease of 69,731. The net position of the top 20 members was bearish [20] Chapter 3: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - The current profit of float glass enterprises is poor. With the expectation of water storage in production lines this week and no ignition or glass output, the weekly output is expected to decline. The terminal demand for float glass remains weak, the orders of downstream deep - processing enterprises are weak, and the inventory of float glass enterprises has decreased slightly. It is expected that the glass price will fluctuate weakly in the near future, and the upper pressure of the 09 contract is around 1000. Short - term high - selling and low - buying are recommended, and stop - loss should be noted [23]

Group 1 - Recent recovery in glass spot transaction volume, with some domestic regions achieving daily sales rates exceeding 200%, leading to a balanced inventory situation [1] - The production cost for coal-based glass production lines is approximately 1050 RMB/ton, while those using petroleum coke are around 1100 RMB/ton, indicating limited downside potential for current futures prices [1] - The current inventory structure shows a decline in market transaction activity, with downstream sectors focusing on inventory digestion, resulting in low purchasing demand [1] Group 2 - As of now, there are 286 float glass production lines in the country, with 221 in operation and a daily melting capacity of 157,405 tons, reflecting an industry capacity utilization rate of 80.50% [2] - The supply of glass has significantly decreased compared to the same period last year, placing current market supply at a near five-year low, while total demand has also declined [2] - The current glass spot prices have fallen below the production costs of most production lines, indicating potential for futures price rebound, although sustainability of such rebound remains weak [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current profit of float glass enterprises is relatively stable, but the weekly output is expected to decline. The terminal demand for float glass remains weak, with weak orders from downstream deep - processing enterprises, and the inventory of float glass enterprises is rising. The glass price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the near term, with the upper pressure on the 09 contract at the 1080 level. It is recommended to short on rallies in the short term and pay attention to stop - losses [2][23] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Market Review - The spot price of domestic float glass showed a downward trend. Affected by the May Day holiday, the overall shipment of enterprises was blocked, and although it improved after the holiday, it was still average. Near the weekend, some enterprises raised prices to test the market. In the North China market, prices were mostly lowered during the holiday, and shipments improved with downstream replenishment at the end of the holiday. The East China market was generally stable with minor fluctuations [8] Chapter 2: Analysis of Price Influencing Factors 2.1 Supply - demand Analysis - **Supply - side**: As of May 8, the weekly output of float glass was 1091900 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.78% and a year - on - year decrease of 10.54%. The average operating rate was 75.24%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.22 percentage points, and the average capacity utilization rate was 78.02%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.41 percentage points. The weekly average profit of float glass with different fuels showed different trends. Overall, the weekly output is expected to decline [12] - **Demand - side**: As of April 30, 2025, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises was 10.3 days, a week - on - week decrease of 11.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.80%. The overall order level of deep - processing enterprises is still lower than the same period in previous years, but it increased in April compared with March. The terminal demand for float glass remains weak, with a decline in real - estate completion area in March 2025, and changes in the automobile dealer inventory warning index, heavy - truck sales, and manufacturing PMI [14][15] - **Inventory**: As of May 8, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 6756000 heavy boxes, a week - on - week increase of 2571000 heavy boxes, a week - on - week increase of 3.96% and a year - on - year increase of 9.29%. The inventory days were 30.8 days, an increase of 1.4 days compared with the previous period. The inventory in North China and East China increased [17] 2.2 Position Analysis - As of May 9, the total long positions of the top 20 members in the glass futures market increased by 25203 to 804340, and the total short positions increased by 47759 to 993996. The net position of the top 20 members was bearish [20] Chapter 3: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - The profit of float glass enterprises is relatively stable, but the output is expected to decline. The demand is weak, and the inventory is rising. The glass price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the near term, and it is recommended to short on rallies in the short term and pay attention to stop - losses [23]