热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 华东、华南等非核心产区表现理性，多数企业未跟风大幅涨价，以稳价为主，重点消化前期库存，避免 因盲目涨价影响节后客户留存，整体市场氛围相对平稳。 面对这波突如其来的涨价潮，市场最关心的问题莫过于：这波涨价有稳固根基吗？节后行情能否持续？ 业内人士普遍预判，节后若供给端收缩预期未能如期兑现，或者下游需求复苏不及预期，玻璃价格大概 率会回调，难以维持涨价态势。节后玻璃市场逐步进入复工复产阶段，但这并不意味着行业会迎来"春 暖花开"，相反，节后市场仍存在诸多隐忧，价格走势不确定性较大。 崔彰表示，这波涨价的根基并不稳固，节后现货价格上涨的持续性存疑。"核心矛盾在于，涨价的驱动 是供给端的收缩预期，但需求端的根本问题并未解决，这也是制约价格持续上涨的关键。"他说。 来源：期货日报 不同于往年春节假期的"稳价休市"，今年春节假期，玻璃企业的涨价动作格外密集。据市场监测，自假 期末开始多家主流玻璃企业先后上调出厂价，涨幅集中在20~40元/吨。虽未出现暴涨，但轮番提价的态 势，持续向市场释放着行业信号。 "这轮涨价由供给驱动，预期先行，核心有两个鲜明特征。" ...

二、基本面数据 【冠通期货研究报告】 玻璃日报：延续震荡偏弱 发布日期：2026 年 1 月 22 日 一、市场行情回顾 1，期货市场：玻璃主力高开高走，日内震荡偏强。120 分钟布林带三轨向 下，短期延续震荡偏弱信号。盘中压力关注日线的 30、20 均线附近，支撑先关 注前低附近。成交量较昨日增 22.4 万手，持仓量较昨日减 924 手；日内最高 1060， 最低 1037，收盘 1057，（较昨结算价）涨 7 元/吨，涨幅 0.67%。 2，现货市场：华北，交投平淡，部分厂家报价下调；华东，刚需采购为主， 厂家稳价出货；华中，逢低采买，实际成交价有所松动；华南，出货较前期放缓， 主流价格持稳。 3，基差：华北现货价格 1010，基差-47 元/吨。 供应方面玻璃产线长期亏损，加速部分企业产能出清，且春节前仍有部分产 线冷修计划，供给端有进一步收缩预期。只是，本月房地产开发投资及资金到位 情况均同比延续下滑，竣工与新开工疲软，地产需求仍未见好转。综合来看，房 地产数据继续走低，临近月底市场刚需也在加速走弱，虽少数产线仍有冷修预期， 但产能收缩可能不及淡季需求的回落，叠加高企的库存压力，预计价格短期维持 震 ...

Report Investment Rating - The short-term outlook for the glass industry is volatile and weak [1] Core Viewpoint - Although the short-term macro sentiment has slightly improved, the demand forecast for glass from the real estate sector continues to decline. It is expected that glass prices may fluctuate weakly in the short term, and a strategy of shorting on rebounds is advisable. Attention should be paid to macro policy changes and production line cold repairs [4] Market行情回顾 Summary Futures Market - The main glass futures contract weakened within the day. The 120-minute Bollinger Bands showed an open trumpet shape, indicating a short-term weakening trend. The intraday pressure was near the middle line of the Bollinger Bands, and support was near the previous low. Trading volume decreased by 257,000 lots from the previous day, while open interest increased by 30,993 lots. The intraday high was 1,115, the low was 1,065, and the closing price was 1,070, down 32 yuan/ton or 2.9% from the previous settlement price [1] Spot Market - In North China, the market was sluggish, with flexible transactions and individual prices down 10 yuan/ton. In East China, it was stable but weak, and shipments in Shandong were restricted by snow. In Central China, there was little change, and the wait-and-see sentiment was strong. In South China, a small number of prices were raised, and downstream buyers mainly made purchases based on rigid demand [1] Basis - The spot price in North China was 1,020, with a basis of -50 yuan/ton [1] Fundamental Data Summary Supply - As of January 15th, the total output of float glass this week was 1.0523 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 0.65% and a year-on-year decrease of 4.28%. The industry's average operating rate was 71.38%, a week-on-week decrease of 0.58%, and the average capacity utilization rate was 75.14%, a week-on-week decrease of 0.49%. There were no production line shutdowns or ignitions this week. One previously ignited production line started producing glass, and combined with the recovery of some production line loads, the daily output increased slightly [2] Inventory - The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 53.013 million weight boxes, a week-on-week decrease of 2.505 million weight boxes, or 4.51%, and a year-on-year increase of 20.89%. The equivalent inventory days were 23 days, a decrease of 1.1 days from the previous period. Currently, the overall inventory of glass enterprises is on a downward trend, and most regions are driven by sales policies, improved market sentiment, and favorable capacity reduction. The enterprise inventory is transferred to the middle and lower reaches, and there is still an expectation of further decline in the future [2] Demand - The average order days of national deep-processing sample enterprises was 9.3 days, a week-on-week increase of 7.9% and a year-on-year increase of 86.4%. As the Spring Festival approaches, the order trends of deep-processing enterprises in the north and south are diverging. Orders in the south are slightly increasing, and some orders can last for more than 20 days, while orders in the north and central regions are declining [2] Profit - The weekly average profit of natural gas float glass was -164.40 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 22.00 yuan/ton. The weekly average profit of coal gas float glass was -69.01 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 4.82 yuan/ton. The weekly average profit of petroleum coke float glass was 3.93 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 9.71 yuan/ton [3] Main Logic Summary - On the supply side, long-term losses in glass production lines are accelerating the exit of some enterprises' production capacity, and there are still plans to cold repair some production lines before the Spring Festival, so there is an expectation of further contraction on the supply side. However, real estate development investment and capital availability have both continued to decline year-on-year, and the completion and new construction of real estate projects are weak, with no improvement in real estate demand. Overall, although the short-term macro sentiment has slightly improved, the demand forecast for glass from the real estate sector continues to decline. It is expected that glass prices may fluctuate weakly in the short term [4]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term shock is on the strong side [1] 2) Core View of the Report - The short - term supply of glass is concentrated and shrinks, improving the phased supply - demand structure. Coupled with the positive macro - expectations, the price may maintain a short - term shock and run strongly. It is advisable to buy on dips in the short - term. Follow - up attention should be paid to macro - policy changes and production line cold - repair situations [4] 3) Summary According to the Directory Market行情回顾 - **Futures Market**: The glass main contract opened high and went low, with intraday fluctuations. The 120 - minute Bollinger Bands' three tracks are upward, showing a short - term signal of continued shock on the strong side. The intraday pressure is near the 40/60 weekly moving averages, and the support is near the 40 daily moving averages. The trading volume decreased by 151,000 lots compared with yesterday, and the open interest decreased by 285 lots. The intraday high was 1149, the low was 1119, and the closing price was 1143, down 1 yuan/ton (0.09% decline) compared with the previous settlement price [1] - **Spot Market**: In the North China region, market sentiment declined, and the price center of some specifications slightly moved down; in the East China market, the center moved up, but the trading slowed down; in the Central China market, the price remained stable, and the shipping sentiment weakened compared with last week; in the South China market, individual prices were raised, with rigid demand purchases and relatively good shipping [1] - **Basis**: The North China spot price is 1020, and the basis is - 123 yuan/ton [1] Fundamental Data - **Supply**: As of January 8, the daily average output of national float glass was 150,100 tons, a decrease of 0.96% compared with the 1st. The national float glass output was 1.0592 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.32% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.9%. The industry average start - up rate was 71.96%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.08%; the average capacity utilization rate was 75.63%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.03%. The 1000 - ton/day design capacity of the Chenzhou No. 1 line of Hunan Qibin Photovoltaic Technology Co., Ltd. is expected to be shut down for cold - repair today, and the 520 - ton/day design capacity of Yunnan Diankai Energy - Saving Technology Co., Ltd. stopped feeding last night, with further contraction in output expected [2] - **Inventory**: The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 55.518 million weight boxes, a month - on - month decrease of 1.348 million weight boxes (2.37% month - on - month decrease) and a year - on - year increase of 27.04%. The inventory days were 24.1 days, a decrease of 1.5 days compared with the previous period. Currently, the overall inventory of glass enterprises is showing a downward trend. Most regions are driven by sales policies, with improved market sentiment and favorable boosts from capacity reduction. The enterprise inventory is transferred to the middle and lower reaches and decreases, and there is still an expectation of further decline in the future [2] - **Demand**: The average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises was 8.6 days, a month - on - month decrease of 10.7% and a year - on - year decrease of 16.1%. Currently, engineering orders are gradually winding up, and the executable days of orders are decreasing, currently concentrated in 10 - 15 days. Home - decoration orders are still mainly low - value scattered orders [2][3] Main Logic Summary - The production lines using natural gas as fuel have long - term losses, and those using coal and petroleum coke as fuel are also in a loss state, accelerating the capacity clearance of some enterprises. Six glass production lines were shut down for cold - repair before New Year's Day, and three more production lines were cold - repaired last week, further shrinking the supply. However, real - estate development investment and capital availability both continued to decline year - on - year, with weak completion and new construction, and the real - estate demand has not improved [4]

Core Viewpoint - The glass industry is experiencing a significant reduction in production capacity amid ongoing profit compression, leading to a generally loose supply-demand balance in the future [1] Industry Overview - As of the end of November, there are a total of 283 float glass production lines in the country, with 217 lines in operation and a daily melting capacity of 155,155 tons, which is a decrease of 5,400 tons from the previous month and a year-on-year decline of 2.71% [1] - The industry's capacity utilization rate stands at 80.13% [1] Market Dynamics - Throughout the year, glass prices have shown multiple instances of rapid rebounds due to the implementation of anti-involution policies and the cold repair of certain production lines; however, these supply-side changes often lead to short-term market shocks [1] - The overall market for glass prices has remained sluggish, with weak downstream orders contributing to a lack of sustained price increases [1] Inventory Situation - High inventory levels have been a key factor hindering the stabilization of glass futures prices, with current inventories at float glass factories significantly higher than the same period last year [1] Future Outlook - The overall supply-demand pattern for glass is expected to remain loose, and without policy measures to stimulate demand, the potential for price rebounds appears limited [1]

Core Viewpoint - Recent glass prices have shown signs of stabilization, but the sustainability of this rebound needs further observation [1] Supply Side - There are rumors regarding supply-side changes, such as the Shahe area planning to suspend four coal-fired production lines for technical upgrades, with a daily melting capacity of approximately 2,350 tons, all of which are small sheet production lines [1] - After the upgrades, three production lines with a capacity of about 3,650 tons per day will gradually resume operations, although the specific resumption time may vary due to regional policies [1] - Some companies in Hubei may also face potential shutdowns due to cash flow issues, indicating that short-term supply changes could trigger the next market trend [1] Demand Side - Current demand remains weak, with low new construction and completion data in the real estate sector further constraining actual glass consumption [1] - End-user procurement is characterized by a cautious wait-and-see attitude [1] - In the short term, if supply-side issues escalate, prices may stabilize; however, in the medium to long term, attention should be paid to actual capacity reductions and the impact of macro policy improvements [1] - Continuous contraction in supply could drive prices upward, but the ongoing weakness in demand remains a significant risk [1]

Core Viewpoint - The glass market is experiencing weak fluctuations in prices, with some regions seeing price declines in the spot market. The market is caught in a stalemate between production cut expectations and weak demand realities, leading to intensified competition [1] Supply Side - The supply side remains relatively stable in production rhythm, but spot prices continue to decline, resulting in continuous inventory accumulation by companies. This breaks the usual post-holiday inventory reduction pattern, becoming a significant factor suppressing prices [1] - There is a need to monitor the actual impact of anti-involution policies on production capacity and the progress of industrial optimization adjustments. A substantial contraction in supply could create opportunities for a temporary price rebound [1] Demand Side - The demand side shows weakness, with deep processing enterprises experiencing a significant year-on-year decline in order days. Additionally, the new construction and completion data in the real estate sector are sluggish, further restricting actual glass consumption [1] - End-user procurement remains cautious and observant, reflecting a lack of confidence in the market despite macro-level expectations of policy benefits and potential demand recovery during peak seasons [1] Market Outlook - In the short term, prices are likely to continue hovering at low levels, awaiting a directional breakthrough. In the medium to long term, the overall upward potential remains constrained by the strength of demand recovery [1]

Core Viewpoint - The glass prices have been declining since August due to reduced market enthusiasm and an oversupply situation, despite a brief rebound in late July [1] Price Trends - After reaching a five-month high on July 25, the main glass futures contract price has dropped by over 300 yuan per ton [1] - As of August 6, the national average price of float glass was 1264.28 yuan per ton, down 36.57 yuan per ton from the recent peak on August 1 [1] Market Analysis - The previous rise in float glass prices was driven by a combination of rising futures prices and low social inventory, leading to emotional concentrated replenishment [1] - The supply-demand imbalance remains unresolved, with traditional peak season demand expectations not being met, causing a return to fundamental pricing [1] Inventory and Supply Dynamics - Recent expectations of traditional peak season demand have not materialized, leading to increased inventory levels among manufacturers and a price decline [1] - Some regions are experiencing a rapid increase in manufacturer inventory, indicating a need to digest existing stock [1] Future Outlook - The current situation shows varied downstream inventory levels, with some still holding significant stock, suggesting a need for time to digest [1] - Float glass manufacturers may face increased inventory pressure, leading to expectations of prices remaining stable but slightly weak in the short term [1]

Core Viewpoint - The glass supply and demand situation is deteriorating in the first half of 2025, leading to a decline in prices, with the market expected to remain weak in the second half of the year [1] Supply Analysis - Glass daily melting capacity is projected to fluctuate between 155,000 to 159,000 tons, with a slight decline expected if profit levels are maintained [1] - In the second half of 2024, some production lines will undergo cold repairs, reducing daily melting capacity to 158,000 tons by the end of the year [1] - Current daily melting capacity is at a relatively low level compared to recent years, with varying profit and loss situations across different fuel production lines [1] Demand Analysis - Glass demand is closely linked to real estate completions, with a 20% year-on-year decline in new construction in 2023, leading to a forecasted decrease in completions in 2025 [1] - From January to May 2025, glass demand decreased by 8.0% year-on-year, with a slow recovery in April but overall weak performance during the peak season [1] - The demand for glass is expected to remain weak due to the anticipated decline in real estate completions in 2025 [1] Inventory Situation - High inventory levels have accumulated due to low daily melting capacity and weak demand from January to May 2025, particularly in Hubei province [1] - Effective inventory reduction will require significant cold repairs or a noticeable improvement in demand [1] Price Trends - Glass prices have experienced significant declines, with the market going through four phases in the first half of 2025, including a rebound in late March followed by a sharp drop due to low demand and high inventory levels [1] - The monthly price structure is expected to maintain a contango format, with the market's outlook for future demand remaining pessimistic [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Views Glass - Short - term: The glass market is expected to have a short - term rebound due to low valuation. The spot market has seen improved recent transactions, but the upcoming rainy season may have a short - term impact. - Medium - term: It is a volatile market. Attention should be paid to the real - estate debt repayment peak in June and the suppression of the Hubei warehouse receipts on the market. The upside is limited, but so is the downside. - Long - term: The 09 contract, a peak - season contract, is priced at a large loss, indicating high future volatility. - Bullish factors: Policy support for real - estate acquisition, increased government financial support, enhanced expectations for the completion of pre - sold housing, low spot prices (below the 25% historical percentile), long - term losses of manufacturers, and peak - season expectations for the 09 contract. - Bearish factors: The real - estate market is unlikely to have a substantial improvement, and there is still significant inventory pressure in Hubei, and the trading sector depends on the real - estate market's continuous improvement [6]. 纯碱 - Short - term: The market is expected to rebound due to low valuation, but the spot price is difficult to increase, and the futures increase leads to a weakening basis, resulting in greater delivery pressure. - Medium - term: It is a volatile market. The core factors are high production and high inventory, with limited long - term shortage expectations. The cost collapse pressure is not fully reflected in the price. The expected production reduction in June is weak, but July or August may be the next maintenance peak. - Potential supporting factors: Low price difference between light and heavy soda, good exports this year, and high inventory concentration, but they need the improvement of the glass market to ferment [7]. Summary by Directory Glass: Supply - side Situation Introduction - Cold - repaired production lines in 2025 have a total daily melting capacity of 8010 tons/day [10]. - Ignited production lines in 2025 have a total daily melting capacity of 9210 tons/day [11]. - Potential new ignition production lines have a total daily melting capacity of 13000 tons/day, with some planned for 2025 and others with undetermined ignition times [13]. - Potential复产 ignition production lines have a total daily melting capacity of 7830 tons, mainly concentrated in South and Southwest China [14]. - Potential cold - repaired production lines have a total daily melting capacity of 7850 tons/day, with various planned cold - repair times [16]. - The glass industry's production reduction space in the first half of the year is expected to be limited, with the current in - production capacity at around 156,000 tons/day, a peak of 178,000 tons/day in 2021, and a recent low of 148,000 - 150,000 tons/day [17][18]. Glass: Price and Profit - Recent transactions have slightly declined, with little overall change. The price in Shahe is around 1140 - 1180 yuan/ton, 1000 - 1100 yuan/ton in Hubei (some manufacturers reduced prices by 40 yuan/ton), and 1280 - 1400 yuan/ton in East China (some manufacturers reduced prices by 20 - 40 yuan/ton) [24][28]. - The futures market has rebounded, the basis is weak, and the month - spread is stable. The spot market is stable, and the month - spread has limited upside due to near - month warehouse receipts [30][33]. - The profit of glass production using petroleum coke as fuel is around - 111 yuan/ton, and that using natural gas and coal as fuel is between - 170 and 91 yuan/ton [34][38]. Glass: Inventory and Downstream Start - up - During the Dragon Boat Festival, weak market transactions led to an increase in inventory across the country. Large manufacturers have better order situations than small ones [41][43]. - The price difference between Central China and Jiangsu and Zhejiang has returned to normal and is widening, which is beneficial for inventory reduction in Hubei [47]. Photovoltaic Glass: Price, Profit, Capacity, and Inventory - Prices are falling, recent orders are slightly decreasing, glass manufacturers' shipments are average, and local inventory is increasing. The price of 2.0mm coated panels is around 12.5 yuan/square meter, a 3.85% month - on - month decline, and the 3.2mm coated panels are around 20.5 yuan/square meter, a 2.38% month - on - month decline [54][56]. - The market is gradually weakening, and it may enter a production - reduction cycle. Market transactions have slightly declined, and inventory has slightly increased, with the sample inventory days at about 29.72 days, a 1.94% month - on - month increase [57][63]. 纯碱: Supply and Maintenance - Maintenance of soda ash has almost reached its peak, and there may be less maintenance in June. The current capacity utilization rate is 80.8% (78.6% last week), and the weekly production of heavy soda ash is 382,200 tons [66][68]. - The inventory is around 1.627 million tons, with 79,000 tons of light soda ash and 837,000 tons of heavy soda ash [75]. 纯碱: Price and Profit - Prices in most regions remain unchanged. The nominal prices in Shahe and Hubei are around 1250 - 1350 yuan/ton [84][85]. - The basis is weak in the short term, and the spot market fluctuates within a narrow range. The market is influenced by the impact of delivery goods and maintenance. - The profit of the joint - alkali method in East China (excluding Shandong) is 178 yuan/ton, and that of the ammonia - alkali method in North China is 50 yuan/ton [90].