神译局是36氪旗下编译团队，关注科技、商业、职场、生活等领域，重点介绍国外的新技术、新观点、新风向。 编者按：经济学中的理性选择理论认为，存在一种理性的决策方式。但理性决策绝不仅要考虑定量部分，更重要的是考虑定性部分，考虑自己的偏好和价值 观。本文来自编译，希望对您有所启发。 本文从巴里·施瓦茨与理查德·舒尔登弗雷的新书《明智抉择》中提炼了五大核心洞见。巴里在斯沃斯莫尔学院教了45年心理学，目前，他在加州大学伯克利 分校哈斯商学院担任访问学者。理查德在斯沃斯莫尔学院担任了42年的哲学教授，任期也很长。 人生抉择不存在一个决策计算器。尽管我们竭力通过量化和计算来寻找"正确"选择，但明智决策的本质绝非如此。在识别最佳方案时，必须依靠定性判断并 考量个人偏好与价值观。 1. 梳理可能性 想象在某个晴朗的周六早晨醒来，你问自己：今天该做什么？你权衡各种可能性：锻炼身体、去徒步、腋下夹着一本书去美丽的公园、处理工作、懒洋洋地 看电视体育节目。 经济学中的理性选择理论认为，决策存在理性路径，需考量两点： 理性决策是定量的。你需要为选项价值及其实现概率同时赋予具体数值和量级。理性选择理论不会告诉你：你该偏好哪些选项？你的价 ...

Report Core View - Traders should not be influenced by market emotions, make independent judgments, and make rational decisions to stay invincible in the futures market. They should learn from the failures of Cao Jiu and Zhang Fei, control their emotions, and base their trading on fundamentals and technical analysis while strictly following trading plans [2][3]. - Traders should understand themselves and the market, not act blindly, and make decisions based on whether the market trend is beneficial or not [3]. Summary by Content Lessons from History - Cao Jiu was enraged by the Han army's insults and led his troops to cross the Sishui River, resulting in a great defeat for the Chu army and the loss of Chenggao. This shows that emotional outbursts can lead to failure in trading [2]. - Zhang Fei was emotionally out - of - control after Guan Yu's death, whipped his soldiers, and was eventually assassinated by his subordinates. Traders who lose control of their emotions due to market fluctuations will also bring disaster to themselves [2]. Trading Principles - Traders should understand themselves, know their abilities and limitations, and understand the market, study market opportunities and changes, and make independent judgments without following blindly [3]. - Trading should be based on fundamentals, supplemented by technical analysis, and strictly implement trading plans, not being influenced by market noise and others' opinions [3]. - When the market trend is beneficial, traders should act decisively; when it is not, they should wait and see [3].