潜在亏损与盈利的概率及其对应金额的精确加权之上。这一算法虽然看起来单线条甚至有些简单，但却不失睿智，亦有定量分析的支撑。在商 业决策和投资领域，这种大概率思维必不可少，绝不可以忽略概率分布。 这本书有意思的一点还在于它并不是用深奥的数学公式来论证自己的观点，而是运用某种"降维打击"，结合人们日常的一些思维惯势娓娓道 来，例如"糟糕的结果并不意味着拙劣的决定"，这很容易理解，就是说人们有时习惯于"事后诸葛亮"，用结果的好坏来倒推决策优劣，然而， 作者从概率学的严谨角度指出，这种归因方式存在严重的逻辑缺陷。因为，一个基于正确分析和大概率思维作出的好决策，仍可能会产生差结 果，同理，一个逻辑混乱的甚至是拍脑袋的坏决策，也可能因为偶然的好运气而得到不错的结果。书中也举了个简单的例子，天气预报说明天 有70%概率会下雨，如果第二天没下雨，你不能就此而说天气预报毫无用处。这毕竟是一个关乎概率的事件。所以，包括商业决策在内的各类 决策者，需要坚持大概率思维、模型和理性决策，识别一些随机性干扰带来的不同结果，不要因结果来反证决策的好坏。否则，对错误经验的 过度总结和痴迷会令你错过正确路径。 文/夏宁 "用亏损的概率乘可能亏损 ...

Core Insights - The essence of wise decision-making is not solely based on quantitative analysis but also requires qualitative judgment, personal preferences, and values [2][9] Group 1: Possibilities and Rational Choice Theory - Decision-making involves weighing various possibilities and options, such as social activities or personal tasks, without a definitive correct choice [3] - Rational choice theory posits that decisions should be made by evaluating the value and probability of options to maximize expected utility, akin to strategies in gambling [4][6] - The framework suggests creating a spreadsheet to quantify decision factors, leading to a calculated rational decision [4] Group 2: Behavioral Economics and Decision-Making - Research by psychologists Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky reveals that human decision-making often deviates from rational choice theory due to various biases and framing effects [7] - Kahneman's work in behavioral economics highlights that people struggle with probability assessments and often compartmentalize decisions, neglecting the overall consequences [7] Group 3: Limitations of Quantification - Not all important decision factors can be quantified, as many qualitative aspects, such as personal fulfillment or social experiences, resist numerical labeling [8] - Relying solely on quantification can lead to a narrow perspective, diminishing the quality of decision-making [8] Group 4: The Need for Rational Judgment - Applying rational choice theory as a strict standard can be dangerous, as it forces the quantification of unmeasurable aspects, leading to a limited understanding [9] - Historical examples, such as the Vietnam War, illustrate how an over-reliance on quantifiable metrics can distort strategic decisions and lead to adverse outcomes [9]

Report Core View - Traders should not be influenced by market emotions, make independent judgments, and make rational decisions to stay invincible in the futures market. They should learn from the failures of Cao Jiu and Zhang Fei, control their emotions, and base their trading on fundamentals and technical analysis while strictly following trading plans [2][3]. - Traders should understand themselves and the market, not act blindly, and make decisions based on whether the market trend is beneficial or not [3]. Summary by Content Lessons from History - Cao Jiu was enraged by the Han army's insults and led his troops to cross the Sishui River, resulting in a great defeat for the Chu army and the loss of Chenggao. This shows that emotional outbursts can lead to failure in trading [2]. - Zhang Fei was emotionally out - of - control after Guan Yu's death, whipped his soldiers, and was eventually assassinated by his subordinates. Traders who lose control of their emotions due to market fluctuations will also bring disaster to themselves [2]. Trading Principles - Traders should understand themselves, know their abilities and limitations, and understand the market, study market opportunities and changes, and make independent judgments without following blindly [3]. - Trading should be based on fundamentals, supplemented by technical analysis, and strictly implement trading plans, not being influenced by market noise and others' opinions [3]. - When the market trend is beneficial, traders should act decisively; when it is not, they should wait and see [3].