Core Insights - The article highlights the trading strategies and philosophies of Li Chengjie, who won the second place in the asset management product group of the 19th National Futures (Options) Live Trading Competition, emphasizing risk control and trading rhythm [1][2]. Trading Philosophy - Li Chengjie's trading style is characterized by a combination of trend-following and swing trading, where trends provide direction and swings offer space for trading [1]. - He emphasizes the importance of time and patience over merely identifying market direction, especially in a less trend-driven market expected in 2025 [1]. Trading Strategy - The core strategy is "defense first, then offense," with a focus on strict adherence to stop-loss levels, position limits, and liquidity requirements [2]. - Li Chengjie employs a three-part position management approach: 30% for testing, 50% for holding, and 20% for defense, ensuring a sense of security during market fluctuations [2]. Emotional Control - Emotional control is deemed more challenging than technical skill in trading, with practices such as mandatory breaks after significant gains or losses and daily physical exercise to maintain mental clarity [3]. - The recent award is viewed as a new starting point, with plans to systematize successful strategies into quantitative models to minimize emotional interference in trading [3]. Market Outlook - For the fourth quarter of 2025 to 2026, the market outlook is cautiously optimistic, with a focus on precious metals, energy, and agricultural products while maintaining a defensive mindset [3].

为人处事亦是如此，如《鬼谷子》所言："圣人之道，在隐与匿。" 凡事显露在外，既让人看轻，又于事无益。 万事尽收于心胸，方显英雄本色。 真正厉害的人，脸上没有情绪，他们懂得喜怒不形于色，静待时光绽放。 作者： 洞见Moon 洞见 （ DJ00123987 ） —— 不一样的观点，不一样的故事， 3000 万人订阅的微信大号。点击标题下 蓝字 " 洞见 " 关注，我们将为您提供有价值、有意思的延伸阅读。 闻谤而怒者，谗之隙；见誉而喜者，佞之媒。 ♬ 点上方播放按钮可收听 洞见主播周周朗读音频 《孙子兵法》有云：兵者，诡道也，故能而示之不能，用而示之不用。 意思是，打仗得让对方摸不着头脑，虚虚实实才能获取胜机。 惊而不乱 《史记》有云：胸有惊雷而面如平湖者，可拜上将军！ 临危而心惊，处变而胆寒，是人之常情。 但若能把这份惊惧惶恐深埋心底，不表露出来，才是真正的强者。 《二钟答文帝问》中记载过一个故事。 钟会十三岁时，和哥哥钟毓一起被魏文帝曹丕召见。 大殿上，钟毓浑身哆嗦，汗如雨下，钟会却始终淡定。 曹丕问钟毓，为什么脸上都是汗。 钟毓害怕地回答，"战战惶惶，汗出如浆。" 曹丕对这个回答很满意，体现了自己的君威。 他 ...

洞见 （ DJ00123987 ） —— 不一样的观点，不一样的故事， 3000 万人订阅的微信大号。点击标题下蓝字 " 洞见 " 关注，我们将为您提供有价值、有意思的 延伸阅读。 作者： yy 来源：每晚一卷书 （ID: JYXZ89896） 你的情绪，与外界无关。 ♬ 点上方播放按钮可收听洞见主播周周 朗读音频 白岩松说过一句话： "我们活得很累，并非生活过于刻薄，而是我们太容易被外界的氛围所感染，被他人的情绪所左右。" 很多生性敏 感的人，常常会 因为别人的一言一行，就在心中掀起一场惊涛骇浪。 心理学家吉姆·泰勒，曾提出一个名词："情绪按钮"。 其实每个人的情绪，都有一个启动的开关。 如果你常常为别人的三言两语动怒，就是亲手把自己的开关交给了别人。 01 曾看过武志红的一篇漫画，女主是一个心思细腻的女生。 她汇报工作时，看到上司皱了一下眉，就惴惴不安地推测，是不是自己讲得太差了。 会议结束后，她仍旧心绪不宁，一整天都闷闷不乐。 没想到下班时，她在电梯碰到了上司。 对方却笑着说了一句：你这周数据很不错啊，继续加油。 女生顿时喜笑颜开，此前的焦虑烟消云散。 我想，很多人对此都有些感同身受，因为太想获得外界的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the mental health struggles faced by professional athletes, particularly in high-pressure sports like tennis, emphasizing that even successful individuals may grapple with significant psychological challenges [1][2][3]. Group 1: Mental Health in Professional Sports - Over one billion people globally suffer from mental health disorders, with anxiety and depression being the most common issues [1]. - Professional tennis players experience unique psychological pressures due to the high commercialization and visibility of the sport, leading to mental health issues [2]. - Notable athletes like Naomi Osaka and Ashleigh Barty have publicly shared their struggles with mental health, illustrating the prevalence of these issues in the sport [2]. Group 2: Psychological Challenges Faced by Athletes - Athletes often travel extensively, facing challenges such as time zone changes, loneliness, and the pressure of competition, which can exacerbate mental health issues [2]. - Research indicates that professional players deal with a lack of stable social networks, economic pressures, and sleep disturbances, all of which contribute to their psychological challenges [2]. - The emotional toll of competition can lead to self-doubt and feelings of isolation, as highlighted by various players' experiences [2][6]. Group 3: Emotional Control and Performance - Athletes must manage intense pressure during competitions, which can lead to emotional outbursts and affect their performance [3][4]. - The psychological state of athletes is crucial for their performance, as distractions from emotions can hinder their ability to focus on the game [4]. - Mental resilience is essential for athletes to navigate the highs and lows of competition, as they often face physical pain and emotional struggles simultaneously [5][6]. Group 4: Coping Mechanisms and Strategies - Athletes are encouraged to adopt positive mental strategies, such as taking mental pauses and focusing on positive thoughts to manage anxiety [7]. - Understanding and accepting pressure as a challenge rather than a threat can enhance performance and mental well-being [7]. - Engaging in physical activity is beneficial for mental health, providing social support and a sense of belonging, which can alleviate feelings of loneliness and stress [7][8].

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of deliberate practice in achieving mastery in any field, including investing, as illustrated by the "10,000-hour rule" proposed by Malcolm Gladwell [1] - Warren Buffett's investment success is attributed to over 60 years of dedicated practice, accumulating more than 50,000 hours of experience, which has shaped his investment thinking [1] Group 1: Investment Thinking Development - Buffett's cognitive "muscle" is developed through daily reading and analysis, allowing him to understand modern business models and competitive landscapes [2] - The decision-making "muscle" is strengthened through gradual exposure to real market conditions, where Buffett learns to make rational choices amidst uncertainty and reviews his investment decisions for continuous improvement [2] - Emotional control is crucial for investors, especially during market volatility, and Buffett's ability to remain calm and rational during crises, such as the 2008 financial crisis, exemplifies this skill [3] Group 2: Learning and Practice - Investors must commit over 10,000 hours to learning and practicing investment strategies, as mere effort without direction may lead to poor outcomes [4] - The article advises against the illusion of quick wealth and encourages a focus on systematic self-training, including daily reading, analysis, and regular reviews [4] - Continuous deliberate practice is essential for developing investment decision-making as a "muscle memory," leading to sustained profitability over time [4]

Report Core View - Traders should not be influenced by market emotions, make independent judgments, and make rational decisions to stay invincible in the futures market. They should learn from the failures of Cao Jiu and Zhang Fei, control their emotions, and base their trading on fundamentals and technical analysis while strictly following trading plans [2][3]. - Traders should understand themselves and the market, not act blindly, and make decisions based on whether the market trend is beneficial or not [3]. Summary by Content Lessons from History - Cao Jiu was enraged by the Han army's insults and led his troops to cross the Sishui River, resulting in a great defeat for the Chu army and the loss of Chenggao. This shows that emotional outbursts can lead to failure in trading [2]. - Zhang Fei was emotionally out - of - control after Guan Yu's death, whipped his soldiers, and was eventually assassinated by his subordinates. Traders who lose control of their emotions due to market fluctuations will also bring disaster to themselves [2]. Trading Principles - Traders should understand themselves, know their abilities and limitations, and understand the market, study market opportunities and changes, and make independent judgments without following blindly [3]. - Trading should be based on fundamentals, supplemented by technical analysis, and strictly implement trading plans, not being influenced by market noise and others' opinions [3]. - When the market trend is beneficial, traders should act decisively; when it is not, they should wait and see [3].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of having a systematic and emotionless investment strategy, particularly through regular investment in index funds, to withstand market volatility and emotional reactions [4][33]. Group 1: Investment Strategy - The essence of the market is volatility, and investors often react emotionally, leading to poor decision-making such as chasing highs or cutting losses prematurely [6][10]. - A mechanical execution of a pre-defined investment strategy can help investors avoid emotional pitfalls and maintain discipline during market fluctuations [6][9]. - Establishing rules during calm periods is crucial to ensure adherence during turbulent times, allowing investors to remain steadfast [4][6]. Group 2: Key Elements of a Long-term Investment Strategy - A long-term investment strategy should include four key elements: a suitable index fund portfolio, defined investment and accumulation conditions, attention to rebalancing and pre-set profit-taking conditions, and thorough record-keeping and periodic review [10][11]. - The portfolio should be built based on risk tolerance and the intended use of funds, incorporating broad-based indices and sector-specific indices for flexibility [12][13]. - Setting specific conditions for investment and accumulation, such as regular intervals for evaluation and thresholds for undervaluation, is essential for disciplined investing [14][16]. - Regular rebalancing and pre-defined profit-taking strategies help maintain the desired portfolio structure and mitigate risks associated with market fluctuations [18][19]. Group 3: Tools and Processes for Execution - Implementing a set of tools and processes is necessary to transform investment rules into automatic actions, ensuring consistent execution [21][22]. - Key tools include an index holding table, a valuation temperature table, an execution checklist, and an operation log to track investment activities and adherence to the strategy [23][24][26]. - Periodic reviews and optimizations of the strategy based on accumulated experience and changing market conditions are vital for long-term success [28][30]. Group 4: Conclusion - The journey of long-term investing is often turbulent, requiring a structured approach to navigate market fluctuations effectively [31][32]. - By establishing rules, building a disciplined investment framework, and utilizing tools for execution, investors can achieve stable returns while minimizing emotional interference [33][34].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of emotional control and restraint in handling unexpected situations, suggesting that impulsive reactions can lead to greater losses and negative outcomes [10][57][80]. Group 1: Stories Illustrating Emotional Reactions - The first story highlights a startup founder whose impulsive reaction to a technical issue during a pitch led to a negative impression on investors, resulting in a lost opportunity [22][24]. - The second story recounts a father whose angry outburst towards a boy interacting with his daughter damaged their relationship, illustrating how impulsive actions can have lasting consequences [40][41]. - The third story involves a journalist who, in a fit of anger over a stolen umbrella, missed an important assignment, demonstrating how emotional reactions can derail professional responsibilities [53][54]. Group 2: Lessons on Emotional Control - The article suggests that strong emotional reactions often exacerbate minor issues, and that maintaining composure can prevent small problems from escalating [61][80]. - A personal account from a writer illustrates how a calm approach to a conflict with a truck driver led to a peaceful resolution, contrasting with the potential for conflict escalation through anger [75][76]. - The article references a study by psychologist Davis, indicating that individuals with volatile tempers are more likely to face career and personal challenges, while those who manage their emotions effectively are more likely to succeed [83][84]. Group 3: Practical Applications in Professional Settings - A workplace anecdote describes how a professional learned to manage disagreements with colleagues through calm discussion, leading to successful project outcomes rather than conflict [96][97]. - The article concludes with insights from Warren Buffett and Bill Gates, who emphasize that emotional control is a key determinant of success, rather than intelligence alone [102].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of emotional control and strategic thinking in both personal and professional contexts, drawing lessons from historical figures and classical texts to illustrate how maintaining composure can lead to success and effective decision-making [6][78]. Group 1: Emotional Control - The ability to remain calm in the face of danger is highlighted as a trait of true strength, as illustrated by the story of Zhong Hui, who maintained his composure during a tense encounter with Emperor Cao Pi [10][21]. - The article discusses the wisdom of controlling one's anger, using the example of Lin Zexu, who learned to manage his emotions to achieve his goals effectively [30][34]. - It is noted that excessive emotional expression can lead to negative consequences, and that wise individuals should control their emotions to navigate complex situations [39][40]. Group 2: Humility and Restraint - The text warns against arrogance during times of success, referencing Zeng Guofan's advice that pride can lead to downfall [43][55]. - The downfall of Nian Gengyao is used as a cautionary tale about the dangers of overconfidence and failing to temper one's ambitions [46][52]. - The article stresses the importance of humility and the need to reflect on past failures to maintain a grounded perspective during prosperous times [56]. Group 3: Strategic Interactions - The article encourages a broader perspective when dealing with disliked individuals, citing Liu Bang's strategic decision to spare a rival for the greater good [60][68]. - It emphasizes the value of maintaining a calm demeanor and not allowing personal feelings to interfere with professional relationships [72][76]. - The importance of emotional detachment in decision-making is reiterated, suggesting that those who can manage their feelings are better equipped to handle complex social dynamics [81].

橡树资本联合创始人霍华德 · 马克斯 4 月上旬跟 Decision Nerds 主理人保罗 · 理查兹的交流中，分 享了他对当下投资环境的深刻思考：在信息过载、情绪泛滥的世界中，真正值得坚持的东西是什么？ 他认为，一支真正优秀的投资团队，必须同时做到两点：价值观一致，技能互补。 价值观一致，才能在困难时刻相互信任、坚持信条；技能互补，才能在不同情境下形成更完整、立体的 判断力。 对于普通投资者，霍华德给出的建议非常直接：参与市场，并以自己能够长期坚持的方式留在市场中。 我们有没有买入那些能持续增长的公司？ 我们有没有把钱借给那些能按时还钱的人？ 霍华德说，这是投资中最值得关注的事情，也是帮助我们穿越噪音、穿越周期的锚。 除了投资本身，他还谈到另一个被许多人忽视但至关重要的要素：团队合作的基础。 这场对话贯穿一个核心主题 —— 认清自己的局限，并找到可以长期坚持的方法。 霍华德回顾了自己 1969 年入行时经历 " 漂亮 50" 泡沫破灭的教训，如何从投资 " 最好的公司 " 巨 亏，学到两个终生受用的原则：不是买好公司，而是要以合理价格买得好；投资的核心，不在于标的本 身好坏，而在于买入时机与价格。 今天的 ...