夏宁 为什么我们会习惯性地点开某个APP？ 这种使用习惯是怎样养成的？ 为什么有的产品让我们"戒不掉"，而有的不行？ 本书主要受众为产品经理、设计师、市场销售人员、广告创意者，每一个跟用户打交道的人，有兴趣都应该阅读一番。作者用"上瘾"这个形象 通俗的说法来提醒以上人员，要非常重视用户的习惯养成，并基于行为心理学、行为学与产品设计实践，系统论述了当下服务类产品（如 APP）如何通过系统化设计深度嵌入用户们的日常，从而培养用户稳定的使用习惯和黏性。并且，本书也打造了一套行之有效的培养用户指 南。作者在开篇就强调习惯的力量，雄心勃勃地写到"如何让你的产品从维生素变成止痛药"，也就是说，如何让你的产品从"可用可不用"变 成"必须要用"。 本书虽然是基于许多大公司的经验与实践，但在理论方面也不遑多让，有着大量的行为心理学、认知科学与行为经济学的理论做支撑，比如书 中所讲的斯金纳的操作性条件反射、福格行为模型以及多巴胺奖赏机制等。有专家认为，该书从学术视角来看，其理论分析框架与问题导向意 识触及了当代技术社会中个体行为塑造的核心议题。 强调产品设计、培养用户习惯，本质上是强调外部刺激的重要性，以及外部刺激能够激发用户的 ...

1 .内向的人才会更容易有更深刻的思考，而且做投资的人要尽量减少不必要的应酬，不 需要别人的褒奖，更不需要别人的批评，需要的只是大量的时间面对自己的内心。 做投资的人要尽量减少不必要的应酬，真正的大智慧是悟出来。 来源 / 投资与悦读 （ID：aiyuedushidai） 葛卫东，毕业于四川大学经济系。长期从事金融，证券和商品投资，具备多领域投资经 验。 现任上海混沌投资有限公司董事长，上海混沌道然资产管理有限公司投资决策委员会主 席。 01 所以，有时候不是我们高傲，是职业要求我们必须这样。 2 .他们的判断仍是基于事实和数据这两个基本维度，而他们参与的这场游戏，却是在情 绪的第三维和梦想的第四维上展开的。 3 .我们每个人的一生都像是在路上。经过一段狂奔以后，你需要减慢速度，甚至停下来 看看，歇歇，想想下一段路怎么走。 人生的路怎么走不仅需要思考，更需要平衡，平衡是为了把人的有限的精力合理的分配 达到效力最大化，这是厚积薄发，正所谓磨刀不误砍柴功。 4 .研究是要讲方法的，有的人研究行情太努力，反而变成一叶障目，只见树木，不见深 林，太专注细节会把自己弄晕。 有 的 人 对 基 本 面 的 研 究 又 太 ...

读完麦克斯·班尼特的《智能简史：进化、AI与人脑的突破》（下简称《智能简史》），我的第一反应 是震撼。长期以来，我一直被本专业中的一些基础性问题困扰。这说明我的认知结构里存在重要的缺 口。这本书并没有完美地填补这些缺口，其实也没有任何一本书能做到，但它确实让我在继续思考这些 问题时，获得了全新的视角。 这本书初看起来和经济学、管理学没有什么关系。它是关于智能的，而且主要不是人工智能，而是人类 的智能，或者说人脑智能。更准确地说，它讨论的是人类智能的演进历程。 一个经济学家的困惑 毫不意外，这一研究范式遭到了各种各样的质疑。众多批评者中，就包括那本20世纪50年代开始便长盛 不衰的著名教科书《经济学》的作者、以天才自居的诺贝尔经济学奖得主保罗·萨缪尔森（Paul Samuelson）。 演化论的辩护与困境 无论这些批评如何尖锐，时至今日，经济学分析人类行为的主流范式，仍然以理性选择模型为基础。其 中有一个非常著名而有力的辩护，由阿兰·阿尔钦（Armen Alchian）和另一位诺贝尔经济学奖得主米尔 顿·弗里德曼（Milton Friedman）在20世纪50年代早期分别给出。 这两篇被认为是奠定了20世纪主流 ...

青侨阳光月度思考 -- 聚焦医药，深简投资 本文为青侨阳光基金 11 月报投资思考部分节选 ~ 在股票投资的宇宙里，市场每个阶段的经历对于投资人来说都像是在体验开盲盒。 以青侨基金为例，今年最重要的一次调仓是2025Q2-Q3拿了一半多的港股创新药企换美股生科标的，理由是这 两类资产的成长动力都很强劲、长期前景都很有吸引力，但自2025年以来一个大涨一个大跌，估值吸引力发生 了大幅逆转。 然而： 但，要是再往前展望几个月，谁又知道会怎样呢？两者继续分化或者两者强弱互换也都不是不可能…… 过去几年里，类似的经历比比皆是，给人的感受就是"往后回溯处处留遗憾，往前展望事事皆未知"。这提出了 我们不得不不直面的一个挑战： 在波诡云谲的市场里，什么是可以信赖的规律？什么是靠不住的表象？如何 才能不断提高我们高效安全地穿越未知丛林的能力？ 1 一条可行的路径： 长视角下的强劲内生价值增长 首先，可以确定的是，虽然短期的市场定价高度未知、难以琢磨，但长视角下，好业务好公司的未来可见度是 非常高的，在此背景下的回报确定性也是非常好的。 因为 估值是个扰动性而非叠加性变量 ，主流市场里正常公司估值拉升或估值压抑一般也就1倍为限 ...

# 读者福利 ， 欢迎留言互动， 12 月 29 日前，平台随机从留言中选取 3 位读者获赠本期推 荐新书！ 01 《赢得输家的游戏：投资者如何长期战胜市场》 [美]查尔斯·D. 埃利斯 著 机械工业出版社 出版 内容简介 教你在长期投资之路上破除陷阱、少走弯路。 对每位希望从股市长期获利的投资者而言，本书是一部值得信赖的权威指南， 被"现代管理学之父"彼得·德鲁克称为"迄今为止关于投资策略和投资管理的佳 作"。在本书中，分享了如何以更低的成本、更小的风险、更少的时间和精力在投 资中取得长期成功，帮助读者在如今这个越来越难以预测的市场中制胜。其核心 在于明确你的投资目标、制定有效的长期策略，并以耐心和决心使市场波动为你 所用，长期坚持执行这些策略。这部经典之作深入剖析了指数投资为何能持续超 越主动投资，在此次全面更新的版本中，埃利斯还新增了关于债券投资、行为经 济学、技术和大数据的章节。 作者简介 查尔斯·D.埃利斯 创立了格林威治合伙公司，这是一家国际战略咨询公司，为全球130多个专业金融 市场的顶尖机构提供服务。他的著名文章《赢得输家相争的比赛》，是一篇开拓 性的论文，发表于《金融分析杂志》，在1975年 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles emphasizes the need for greater flexibility in personal pension withdrawals to enhance the willingness of younger individuals to contribute to pension plans [1][2] - Current restrictions on personal pension withdrawals, based on a "paternalistic" approach, prioritize long-term security but reduce liquidity, discouraging younger generations from participating [1] - The average annual contribution to personal pensions is low, with individuals contributing only a few thousand yuan, despite a maximum limit of 12,000 yuan per year [1] Group 2 - A recent policy change expanded the conditions for accessing personal pensions from three to six, including new circumstances such as major illness and unemployment benefits [2] - The new conditions may complicate the withdrawal process, particularly the requirement related to medical expenses exceeding the previous year's average disposable income, which could create additional barriers [2] - Recommendations suggest that instead of government assessments, individuals should have the autonomy to decide on withdrawals, with the only requirement being the repayment of tax benefits if withdrawn early [2]

Core Insights - The essence of wise decision-making is not solely based on quantitative analysis but also requires qualitative judgment, personal preferences, and values [2][9] Group 1: Possibilities and Rational Choice Theory - Decision-making involves weighing various possibilities and options, such as social activities or personal tasks, without a definitive correct choice [3] - Rational choice theory posits that decisions should be made by evaluating the value and probability of options to maximize expected utility, akin to strategies in gambling [4][6] - The framework suggests creating a spreadsheet to quantify decision factors, leading to a calculated rational decision [4] Group 2: Behavioral Economics and Decision-Making - Research by psychologists Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky reveals that human decision-making often deviates from rational choice theory due to various biases and framing effects [7] - Kahneman's work in behavioral economics highlights that people struggle with probability assessments and often compartmentalize decisions, neglecting the overall consequences [7] Group 3: Limitations of Quantification - Not all important decision factors can be quantified, as many qualitative aspects, such as personal fulfillment or social experiences, resist numerical labeling [8] - Relying solely on quantification can lead to a narrow perspective, diminishing the quality of decision-making [8] Group 4: The Need for Rational Judgment - Applying rational choice theory as a strict standard can be dangerous, as it forces the quantification of unmeasurable aspects, leading to a limited understanding [9] - Historical examples, such as the Vietnam War, illustrate how an over-reliance on quantifiable metrics can distort strategic decisions and lead to adverse outcomes [9]

Core Insights - Renaissance Technologies, founded by mathematician Jim Simons in 1982, is renowned for its flagship Medallion Fund, which has reportedly achieved an annualized return of approximately 39% after fees since 1988, surpassing the performance of notable investors like Buffett and Soros [2] - The firm's success is attributed not to deep insights into macroeconomics or company fundamentals, but rather to its ability to systematically capture and exploit the emotional and irrational behaviors of market participants [3][4] Group 1: Investment Strategy - The Medallion Fund's strategy focuses on quantifying human irrationality and turning it into predictable outcomes, leveraging behavioral economics insights such as loss aversion [5][6] - Quantitative models are designed to capitalize on market anomalies, such as mean reversion, where stocks are bought when they are irrationally sold off and shorted when they are irrationally overbought [6][10] - The approach emphasizes a disciplined, emotion-free trading system, contrasting with traditional fund managers who often rely on intuition and instinct [7][8] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The firm identifies and exploits systematic biases in human behavior, particularly during periods of market stress when emotional reactions are heightened [7][14] - Renaissance Technologies utilizes various trading signals, including weekend effects and news event aftermaths, to predict and profit from market movements [10][11] - The concept of "ghost signals," which are non-intuitive patterns that can yield reliable statistical returns, is also a key part of their strategy [13] Group 3: Lessons and Implications - The success of Renaissance Technologies illustrates the importance of understanding and leveraging human psychology in financial markets to achieve superior returns [14] - Ordinary investors are advised to either develop a disciplined, quant-driven approach or adopt a long-term investment strategy focused on fundamental value to avoid falling into the traps set by quantitative models [14]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes that true rational wealth is not about accumulating vast amounts of money but about mastering one's psychology to ensure every penny is spent wisely and every investment aligns with long-term goals [1][20] - It introduces the concept of "mental accounting," a term coined by Richard Thaler, which explains how individuals categorize money based on its source and intended use, leading to irrational financial decisions [3][4] Summary by Sections Understanding Mental Accounting - Mental accounting is a concept recognized by Nobel laureate Richard Thaler, highlighting that people unconsciously categorize money into different "accounts" based on its source and purpose, leading to varied emotional responses and spending behaviors [3][4] - The article outlines three core characteristics of mental accounting: non-substitutability, subjective pricing, and emotional driving, which influence how individuals perceive and spend their money [4][5] Behavioral Patterns and Examples - The article discusses common scenarios where mental accounting leads to irrational decision-making, such as being overly frugal with everyday expenses while splurging on luxury items [5][6] - An experiment cited shows that individuals treated the same amount of money differently based on its label (salary vs. bonus), with savings rates significantly varying between the two groups [5][6] Hidden Traps of Mental Accounting - The article identifies three hidden traps of mental accounting: account fragmentation, subjective pricing, and rigid thinking, which can lead to wealth erosion [9] - It emphasizes the importance of recognizing that all money is part of an individual's overall wealth, rather than being divided into separate emotional categories [9] Practical Strategies for Managing Mental Accounting - The article provides five actionable methods to manage mental accounting effectively, including unifying account logic, reassessing spending from different account perspectives, and establishing core and flexible accounts [11][12][13][14] - It suggests a "5-3-2 rule" for managing unexpected income, allocating portions to core accounts, flexible spending, and self-improvement [15] Positive Aspects and Cultural Context - The article acknowledges that mental accounting can have positive effects, such as motivating savings for specific goals, and highlights the cultural significance of "relationship accounts" in maintaining social ties [18] - It warns against the limitations of mental accounting, particularly in situations of high debt or emergencies, where flexibility is crucial [18]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the annual Double Eleven shopping festival, emphasizing the opportunity for consumers to purchase books at discounted prices, particularly in the investment and finance category [1][2]. Discount Benefits - The company has prepared special purchasing benefits for the Double Eleven event, including a discount of 120 yuan for purchases over 300 yuan, with coupons available on the product page [5]. - The promotional period is from November 9, 2025, at 20:00 to November 11, 2025, at 24:00 [5]. Selected Books for Investment and Finance - The company has selected six notable investment and finance books for this promotion, including: 1. **"Active Fund Investment Guide"** - A comprehensive introduction to active funds, covering what they are, how to buy and sell them, and investment strategies [11]. 2. **"Index Fund Investment Guide"** - Suitable for beginners, this book discusses 256 mainstream index funds in China and provides investment strategies for ordinary investors [13][14]. 3. **"Ten Years to Financial Freedom through Regular Investment"** - This book details the concept of regular investment, making it ideal for working professionals with steady cash flow [17]. 4. **"Long-Term Stock Market Secrets"** - A globally bestselling book updated with nearly 30 years of new data, emphasizing that stocks are the best long-term wealth accumulation method [19][20]. 5. **"Trillion Index"** - A narrative on the history of index funds, featuring stories of investment masters and industry elites [25]. 6. **"Patient Capital"** - This book illustrates the journeys of long-term investment pioneers, providing insights into managing family assets [26][27]. Additional Recommendations - The article also mentions various other financial and investment-related books, categorized into different themes such as professional investment, wealth thinking, and workplace improvement, providing a comprehensive reading list for interested individuals [49][75][80].