得知2002年诺贝尔经济学奖得主丹尼尔·卡尼曼（Daniel Kahneman）以安乐死的方式离世的消息，是在去年3月底一个清冷的早晨。那本早已翻旧的《思考， 快与慢》依旧搁在我的书桌，书页折了多处，有些页码边缘微微卷起，使得整本书膨胀得有点像发酵过的面包。是的，对我来说，卡尼曼先生，这位远在彼 岸的智者，就是我最重要的一位"知识面包师"。我关于行为经济学那点粗浅的认知骨架，很大程度上是啃了他的几本著作，尤其是这本"面包书"，才勉强支 撑起来的。它填充了我对"人如何决策"这一古老命题理解上的巨大空洞。 《思考，快与慢》 这岂非正应和了莎士比亚在《皆大欢喜》中的喟叹："世界不过是一座舞台，所有的男男女女只是些演员"？我们这些匆忙登台的演员，在名为"生活"的宏大 剧目中，何尝不都在被这些根植于大脑深处的认知偏差所导演，上演着一幕幕不自知的悲喜剧？ [ 美 ] 丹尼尔 · 卡尼曼 | 著 江生 于华 | 译 中信出版集团 2025 年 4 月 更重要的是，正是他交给我的底层逻辑，触发了一系列难以抑制的新思考，催生出一种近乎迫切的表达欲。10多年前，在经历了一段职业转换和思想的倦怠 期后，我本已主动停掉了在《北京青年 ...

星巴克最近交出了一份很难看的成绩单：利润暴跌了5.58亿美元。但这背后，其实是CEO尼科尔在进行 一场主动的、代价高昂的"大翻修"。 星巴克的核心问题出在它的"金字招牌"上。 过去，星巴克之所以能卖得比别的咖啡贵，很大程度上是因为它卖的不只是一杯咖啡，更是一种"第三 空间"的体验——一个舒适、有格调、能让人放松或工作的地方。人们愿意为这种独特的氛围和服务多 付钱。 然而，这几年情况变了。 一方面，物价普遍上涨，消费者对价格更敏感了； 另一方面，星巴克面临的竞争前所未有的激烈，从精品咖啡馆到快餐店（麦当劳、Dunkin'）再到便利 店（7-11），都在争夺咖啡市场。 而且，星巴克自身的服务体验也出了问题：店里人手不足导致排队时间变长、咖啡品质不稳定、过度依 赖手机点单让店里少了人情味……结果就是，消费者越来越觉得星巴克咖啡"不值那个价"了，它的品牌 吸引力，或者说"溢价能力"正在持续下降，于是，人们就不再那么愿意为"星巴克体验"支付明显的额外 费用。 尼科尔深刻认识到，如果还像过去那样小修小补，或者只想着靠涨价维持利润，这条路是走不通的，只 会让问题越来越严重，最终可能导致星巴克失去灵魂，变成一个平庸的、慢慢衰 ...

Group 1 - The core idea of the article is the innovative approach of the "Xiangshan Talent Recruitment Night Market" in Zhuhai, which shifts traditional job fairs to nighttime and public commercial areas, enhancing job matching efficiency and creating a more relaxed atmosphere for job seekers [1][2] - The event attracted nearly 4,000 job positions and 6,000 attendees, achieving an intention agreement rate exceeding 16%, significantly higher than traditional job fairs [1] - This new model reflects a shift in public services adapting to the preferences of Generation Z, emphasizing immersive experiences over traditional, didactic methods [2] Group 2 - The article highlights a broader trend of innovative recruitment practices across China, such as Nanjing's "Wutong Language" talent market and Chengdu's "script murder job seeking," which utilize social resources and break departmental silos [2] - To sustain these innovations, three key dimensions need to be addressed: establishing a "demand radar" mechanism for dynamic site optimization, developing career experience products for long-term skill development, and creating an evaluation system to track actual employment rates [3] - The article emphasizes that public services must evolve to be more engaging and relatable, transforming traditional job fairs into appealing community events [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of reading as a pathway to growth and wisdom, highlighting the influence of Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger in promoting this idea [2][3][7]. Summary by Sections Book Recommendation - The featured book is "Warren Buffett: From Investor to Entrepreneur," authored by Todd A. Finkle, which explores Buffett's investment wisdom and entrepreneurial spirit [9][11]. Behavioral Finance - Buffett suggests that successful investors must understand two key aspects: how to evaluate a company and how to comprehend human nature [13]. - Behavioral finance, rooted in the research of Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky, examines how psychological biases affect investor decisions, emphasizing the importance of recognizing these biases to avoid mistakes [14][15]. Crisis Management - The article discusses how Buffett navigated various financial crises, including: 1. **COVID-19 Pandemic**: The U.S. stock market fell 34% in a rapid decline, but Buffett advised maintaining confidence and not making drastic changes [17]. 2. **Great Recession (2007-2009)**: The Dow Jones index dropped over 50%, yet Buffett's strategy of patience proved effective as the market eventually recovered [18]. 3. **Dot-com Bubble (2000-2002)**: Despite criticism for underperforming, Buffett's cautious approach during the tech boom and subsequent crash demonstrated the value of independent thinking [19]. 4. **Great Depression**: The Dow Jones index took 25 years to recover to its pre-crash peak, illustrating the long-term impact of economic downturns [21]. Summary of Crisis Responses - The recovery times from crises have decreased over the decades, from 25 years during the Great Depression to just two months during the COVID-19 pandemic, indicating improved resilience in the market [22].

Core Insights - The article highlights the impressive investment performance of Christian Flanders, who achieved a 433% return in a U.S. investment competition, showcasing the application of economic principles and financial logic in trading [2] Group 1: Investment Strategies - Flanders employs a simplified investment strategy aligned with trend theory, focusing on stocks near historical highs to follow upward market trends and avoid value traps [3] - His approach includes a gradual risk exposure strategy and a reverse Martingale strategy, which adjusts positions based on profit and loss, effectively managing risk while maximizing returns [3] - The success of his phase transition strategy is attributed to a deep understanding of market dynamics, utilizing significant information to capture price gaps and define risk-reward boundaries [4] Group 2: Market Analysis Techniques - Flanders studies the historical performance of leading stocks, creatively applying the efficient market hypothesis to identify recurring price patterns and market behaviors [4] - His analysis of new stock listings and strong market trends aims to exploit market inertia and momentum effects, allowing for the generation of excess returns [4] Group 3: Risk Management - The implementation of down risk protection and trailing stop-loss strategies exemplifies a rigorous application of risk management principles, quantifying and controlling risk within acceptable limits [5] - Flanders utilizes moving averages to track trends and manage risk, helping to capture trend continuations while providing timely exit points during reversals [5] - The article emphasizes the importance of emotional control and discipline in trading, suggesting that successful investors must integrate rational decision-making with scientific methods to navigate market opportunities effectively [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the annual 618 shopping festival, emphasizing the opportunity for consumers to purchase books at discounted prices, particularly in the investment and finance category [1][2]. Summary by Sections Promotional Offers - The company offers limited-time discounts on investment-related books during the 618 event, with discounts starting at 50% and additional coupon stacking available, allowing for a maximum discount of 130 on purchases over 300 [4]. Featured Books - The promotional book list includes six notable titles: 1. "The Active Fund Investment Guide" 2. "The Index Fund Investment Guide" 3. "Ten Years to Financial Freedom through Regular Investment" 4. "The Long-Term Stock Market Secret" 5. "The Trillion Dollar Index" 6. "Patient Capital" [6][16][20][26][31]. Book Summaries - "The Active Fund Investment Guide" provides a comprehensive introduction to active funds, including how to buy and sell them, aimed at helping readers build their investment systems [9]. - "The Index Fund Investment Guide" is suitable for beginners, detailing 256 mainstream index funds and investment strategies for ordinary investors [12][13]. - "Ten Years to Financial Freedom through Regular Investment" outlines a detailed plan for regular investment, particularly beneficial for salaried individuals with consistent cash flow [16]. - "The Long-Term Stock Market Secret" is a globally recognized investment classic, emphasizing that stocks are the best long-term wealth accumulation method, while also addressing the risks involved [20][21]. - "The Trillion Dollar Index" narrates the history of index funds and features insights from renowned investors, making it an engaging read [26][28]. - "Patient Capital" shares stories of long-term investment pioneers, providing lessons on managing family assets effectively [31][32]. Additional Recommendations - The article also mentions various other investment and finance-related books, including titles focused on financial literacy for children, family financial planning, and classic investment strategies, catering to a wide audience from beginners to seasoned investors [35][39][45][49].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent trends in U.S. inflation data, highlighting a cooling trend that poses a challenge for the Federal Reserve's decision-making process, particularly regarding potential interest rate cuts [1][2]. Group 1: Inflation Data Analysis - In April, the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a year-on-year increase of 2.3%, marking the lowest level since February 2021 and remaining below expectations for three consecutive months [1]. - Month-on-month, the CPI rose by 0.2%, also falling short of market expectations, indicating a potential shift in inflation dynamics [1]. - Core inflation remains at a relatively comfortable level for the market, suggesting a sustained cooling trend [1]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Decision-Making - The article raises the question of whether the Federal Reserve will initiate a rate cut in response to the cooling inflation, which is seen as a favorable condition for such a move [1]. - The Federal Reserve's cautious stance is influenced by uncertainties stemming from the Trump administration's trade policies, particularly the tariff war, which complicates the inflation outlook [2]. - The decision-making framework of the Federal Reserve is under scrutiny, as it continues to rely on past mechanisms that may not be suitable for the current economic environment characterized by volatility and unpredictability [2][3]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Expectations - The article emphasizes that market participants are likely to adjust their behaviors in response to the tariff war, which could lead to immediate inflationary pressures despite the current data showing a cooling trend [3]. - Investors are advised to prepare for potential risks associated with the Federal Reserve's decisions, especially given the unsustainable nature of U.S. deficits and the burden of interest payments on national debt [3]. - The ongoing global economic transformation, driven by factors such as AI and changes in the supply chain, adds complexity to the Federal Reserve's decision-making landscape [3].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant interference of the Trump administration's tariff war on the Federal Reserve's decision-making process [1][2] - The April inflation data in the U.S. shows a year-on-year increase of 2.3%, marking the lowest level since February 2021, and a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, both below market expectations [2] - The Federal Reserve's cautious stance is influenced by the uncertainty stemming from the tariff war, which complicates the decision to potentially initiate interest rate cuts despite the favorable inflation trends [2][3] Group 2 - The decision-making environment for the Federal Reserve has changed significantly since the 2008 financial crisis, with the current economic landscape characterized by irregular shocks and complexities introduced by the Trump administration's policies [3] - The Federal Reserve's historical decision-making mechanisms may not adequately address the new challenges posed by the current economic conditions, leading to market disputes regarding its policy responses [3][4] - The implementation of tariffs has immediate effects on market behavior, suggesting that inflation may rise in anticipation of these changes, rather than as a delayed response [4] Group 3 - The current global economic environment is marked by rapid changes and uncertainties, including the restructuring of global supply chains and the unpredictable impacts of new technologies like AI [4] - The sustainability of U.S. fiscal policies is under scrutiny, particularly concerning the burden of national debt and interest payments, which adds to the uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's future decisions [4]

Group 1 - The April CPI data release is expected to ignite a fierce debate about inflation trends, intertwining with Trump's trade policies and Federal Reserve monetary decisions [1] - Housing costs are a critical variable in determining whether the inflation decline trend continues, with housing inflation rate dropping to 4% in Q1 2025, resonating with slowing private market home price growth [3] - The impact of tariffs is beginning to permeate the market, with a 2% increase in tariff revenue indicating accumulating cost pressures for businesses [3] Group 2 - The current CPI data may underestimate long-term inflation risks due to the lag in price increases of industrial intermediate goods, which typically take 6-12 months to pass through the supply chain [4] - Consumer behavior is being distorted by tariff uncertainties, leading to the largest price increase in non-transport core goods in two years, reflecting irrational purchasing behavior [4] - The recent breakthrough in US-China Geneva talks, which includes a 91% reduction in bilateral tariffs, is expected to reshape inflation expectations and reduce import costs [4] Group 3 - The bond market is betting on a pause in June and a rate cut in July, indicating a collective vote for a "soft landing" narrative, while there is a stark contrast in long-term inflation expectations [5] - The current economic landscape presents a dual paradox where trade resolutions provide short-term inflation relief, but global supply chain restructuring is brewing new cost pressures [5] - The April CPI report serves as a litmus test for existing economic theories and a microscope for observing the restructuring of the global trade system [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article presents a book list for 2025, emphasizing the importance of reading classic works across various fields such as investment, history, and medicine, which can enhance cognitive understanding and provide insights during market noise [2]. Book Recommendations - **"Kangxi's Red Ticket"**: This book explores the interactions between Emperor Kangxi and Western missionaries, highlighting the complex relationships between the Qing Dynasty and the West in areas like science and diplomacy [2]. - **"Surely You're Joking, Mr. Feynman!"**: A non-typical autobiography of Richard Feynman, showcasing his curiosity and problem-solving approach through various anecdotes without complex formulas [6][8]. - **"The Little Book of Common Sense Investing"**: This classic guide by Professor Siegel analyzes over 200 years of stock trading in the U.S., comparing various investment products and offering strategic advice [8][10]. - **"Value Investing: From Graham to Buffett"**: This book systematically discusses the theory and practice of value investing, from Graham's foundational theories to Buffett's innovations, helping readers understand value principles and portfolio management [12][14]. - **"The Discovery of Thinking"**: This book delves into human decision-making processes, exploring biases and irrational behaviors that challenge traditional economic assumptions [15][17]. - **"Sorry, I Moved Your Brain"**: A collection of true stories from a neurosurgeon's perspective, discussing medical technology, ethics, and the emotional journey of doctors [19][21].