神译局是36氪旗下编译团队，关注科技、商业、职场、生活等领域，重点介绍国外的新技术、新观点、新风向。 编者按：经济学中的理性选择理论认为，存在一种理性的决策方式。但理性决策绝不仅要考虑定量部分，更重要的是考虑定性部分，考虑自己的偏好和价值 观。本文来自编译，希望对您有所启发。 本文从巴里·施瓦茨与理查德·舒尔登弗雷的新书《明智抉择》中提炼了五大核心洞见。巴里在斯沃斯莫尔学院教了45年心理学，目前，他在加州大学伯克利 分校哈斯商学院担任访问学者。理查德在斯沃斯莫尔学院担任了42年的哲学教授，任期也很长。 人生抉择不存在一个决策计算器。尽管我们竭力通过量化和计算来寻找"正确"选择，但明智决策的本质绝非如此。在识别最佳方案时，必须依靠定性判断并 考量个人偏好与价值观。 1. 梳理可能性 想象在某个晴朗的周六早晨醒来，你问自己：今天该做什么？你权衡各种可能性：锻炼身体、去徒步、腋下夹着一本书去美丽的公园、处理工作、懒洋洋地 看电视体育节目。 经济学中的理性选择理论认为，决策存在理性路径，需考量两点： 理性决策是定量的。你需要为选项价值及其实现概率同时赋予具体数值和量级。理性选择理论不会告诉你：你该偏好哪些选项？你的价 ...

今天这篇文章，来和大家聊聊一家特殊的对冲基金公司：文艺复兴。 文艺复兴科技公司成立于1982年，由美国数学家詹姆斯·西蒙斯（Jim Simons）创建。公司旗下最著名的旗舰基金为大奖章Medallion Fund，据称自 1988年以来扣除费用后的年化回报率约为39%，连巴菲特和索罗斯都达不到这种回报水平。在鼎盛时期，文艺复兴管理资产规模曾接近1000亿美元以上。 文艺复兴对外开放投资的基金规模有一定控制，旗舰基金大奖章仅限内部员工及其亲属参与【1】。 基于西蒙斯的数学家背景，以及文艺复兴基金的量化交易策略，大奖章出色的业绩回报可以说是数学的胜利，是复杂算法和海量算力碾压我们这些在市场上 摸爬滚打的凡人智慧的明证。但若深入探究这些量化巨头的成功奥秘，我们会发现一个既反直觉又令人心酸的真相： 他们最大的优势，与其说是破解了金 融市场这个"物理难题"，不如说是精通了人类反复犯错的"心理难题" 。西蒙斯团队的成功并非来自对宏观经济或企业基本面的高深洞察，而是源于对市场 参与者情绪和非理性行为的系统性捕捉和利用。换言之，量化巨头们并非战胜了市场，而是战胜了我们这些普通人身上那些可预测的人性弱点，在我们人类 的情绪陷阱 ...

作者 l洞见书 这是洞见书分享的第3174篇文章 真正的理性财富，不是赚很多很多钱，而是能驾驭自己的心理，让每一分钱都花在刀刃上，每一笔投资都贴合自己的长期目标。 不是钱不一样，是你给金钱贴了"情绪标签"——心理账户让你对钱双标，而理性财富的关键，是撕掉标签，让钱回归本身的价值。 你一定有过这种矛盾到扎心的经历：点外卖翻半小时就为省5块满减券，转头刷到博主推荐1999元的美容仪，看几分钟测评就果断下单；拼单时为2块运费 纠结半天，跟朋友聚餐却对几百块的人均价毫不在意； 工资到手精打细算规划房贷房租，年终奖刚到就想着旅游购物放肆花？别自责"乱花钱"，这不是你的问题，是行为经济学里的"心理账户"在悄悄操控你的 决策。 作为踩过无数消费坑、从月光族攒下第一桶金的过来人，我曾被心理账户"牵着鼻子走"，后来慢慢摸透它的逻辑，反而能用它优化消费和理财。 今天就把这个影响你财富的核心逻辑拆透，给你5个能直接落地的方法，帮你跳出非理性消费，轻松攒钱、理性花钱。 01 什么是心理账户？——诺贝尔经济学奖认可的"金钱情绪学" 其实心理账户一点不玄乎，它是美国经济学家理查德·塞勒提出的概念，还帮他拿下了2017年诺贝尔经济学奖。传 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the annual Double Eleven shopping festival, emphasizing the opportunity for consumers to purchase books at discounted prices, particularly in the investment and finance category [1][2]. Discount Benefits - The company has prepared special purchasing benefits for the Double Eleven event, including a discount of 120 yuan for purchases over 300 yuan, with coupons available on the product page [5]. - The promotional period is from November 9, 2025, at 20:00 to November 11, 2025, at 24:00 [5]. Selected Books for Investment and Finance - The company has selected six notable investment and finance books for this promotion, including: 1. **"Active Fund Investment Guide"** - A comprehensive introduction to active funds, covering what they are, how to buy and sell them, and investment strategies [11]. 2. **"Index Fund Investment Guide"** - Suitable for beginners, this book discusses 256 mainstream index funds in China and provides investment strategies for ordinary investors [13][14]. 3. **"Ten Years to Financial Freedom through Regular Investment"** - This book details the concept of regular investment, making it ideal for working professionals with steady cash flow [17]. 4. **"Long-Term Stock Market Secrets"** - A globally bestselling book updated with nearly 30 years of new data, emphasizing that stocks are the best long-term wealth accumulation method [19][20]. 5. **"Trillion Index"** - A narrative on the history of index funds, featuring stories of investment masters and industry elites [25]. 6. **"Patient Capital"** - This book illustrates the journeys of long-term investment pioneers, providing insights into managing family assets [26][27]. Additional Recommendations - The article also mentions various other financial and investment-related books, categorized into different themes such as professional investment, wealth thinking, and workplace improvement, providing a comprehensive reading list for interested individuals [49][75][80].

Core Insights - The book "Naked Economics" by Charles Wheelan presents economics in an intuitive and accessible manner, stripping away complex mathematical formulas to focus on real-world applications [5][6][7] Group 1: Key Contributions - The book emphasizes that the most important ideas in economics are intuitive and can be understood without complex mathematics, using metaphors and real-life examples to explain concepts [6][7] - Wheelan integrates behavioral economics into mainstream economic narratives, highlighting the limitations of the rational agent assumption and showcasing systematic irrational behaviors in human decision-making [7][8] - The author provides a dialectical analysis of economic policies, arguing that government can both support and hinder market productivity, emphasizing the importance of discerning when intervention is beneficial [9][10] Group 2: Practical Implications - Wheelan discusses the dual nature of government intervention, likening it to a surgeon's scalpel that can either heal or harm, stressing the need for careful and prudent use of regulatory tools [9][10] - The book addresses the challenges of wealth redistribution through taxation and welfare policies, noting that generous unemployment benefits can create disincentives for job-seeking behavior [9][10] - Effective regulation is portrayed as enhancing market credibility, while also recognizing the potential costs and risks of regulatory capture by interest groups [10]

Core Insights - The article discusses how innovative companies are leveraging familiar technologies to engage elderly individuals, thereby transforming the silver economy and addressing the technological gap faced by seniors [1][28] - The focus is on integrating technology into the daily lives of older adults without requiring them to learn new systems, which has proven to be a successful business strategy [1][28] Group 1: Communication Strategies - Companies are utilizing traditional communication tools like automated phone calls and SMS to reach millions of elderly individuals, achieving a threefold increase in participation rates [4][5] - Blooming Health has raised $32.5 million and operates in over 1,000 communities, providing cost-effective solutions for activity notifications and health reminders through simple phone interactions [4][5] Group 2: Simplified Technology Solutions - Carevocacy offers AI-driven support via SMS, allowing seniors to ask questions about technology without needing to download apps, thus enhancing accessibility [7] - Storii enables seniors to share their life stories through guided AI conversations, creating a digital legacy that can be shared with family [10][12] Group 3: Home Entertainment and Engagement - JubileeTV transforms televisions into user-friendly platforms for remote care, significantly reducing the time families spend managing technology [14] - Uniper provides interactive live activities through various devices, helping to combat loneliness among seniors [16] Group 4: Value-Driven Health Solutions - Wellth employs behavioral economics to improve medication adherence, resulting in a 42% reduction in hospitalization rates and significant cost savings for healthcare providers [21] - TSOLife's AI platform enhances emotional care for seniors, extending their stay in facilities by over six weeks [23] Group 5: Comprehensive Service Platforms - Speak2 Family integrates various services into a single platform, allowing seniors to easily access information and services through voice commands or apps [25][26] - The company has acquired competitors to strengthen its market position and enhance service offerings [26] Group 6: Human-Centric Approach - The success of these companies lies in their ability to adapt technology to the needs of seniors rather than forcing seniors to adapt to new technologies [28] - By focusing on B2B models and providing measurable returns for clients, these companies are effectively addressing the challenges of the aging population [28]

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences is highly anticipated, with diverse predictions regarding potential winners, including fields such as behavioral economics, labor economics, and international trade theory [1][2]. Group 1: Nobel Prize Overview - The Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences, officially known as the "Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel," has been awarded since 1969, with a total of 96 laureates as of October 12, 2025 [2]. - The prize is awarded annually on the anniversary of Nobel's death, and it can be shared among up to three individuals [2]. - The youngest laureate is Esther Duflo, who won in 2019 at the age of 46, while the oldest is Leonid Hurwicz, who was 90 when he won in 2007 [3]. Group 2: Female Laureates - Only three women have received the Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences: Esther Duflo, Elinor Ostrom, and Claudia Goldin [3]. - Elinor Ostrom was the first female laureate, awarded in 2009 for her work on public resource management, while Claudia Goldin received the prize in 2023 for her contributions to understanding women's labor market outcomes [3]. Group 3: Predictions and Trends - As the announcement date approaches, speculation about potential winners intensifies, with notable candidates including recipients of other prestigious awards like the Clark Medal and the Clarivate Citation Laureates [4]. - Recent winners of the Clarivate Citation Laureates in economics include David Autor and Lawrence F. Katz for their analysis of wage structure and income inequality, and Marianne Bertrand and Sendhil Mullainathan for their work on labor economics [4][5]. - The Nobel Prize committee emphasizes that awarded discoveries must have significant scientific merit and societal impact, leading to extensive subsequent research [5].

Core Insights - The article discusses the impact of Typhoon "Hagupit" on consumer behavior, particularly regarding the unexpected decline in sales of the popular dessert durian daifuku during the storm [1][3] - It highlights the psychological phenomenon of the "herd effect," where individuals tend to follow the majority's behavior, especially in uncertain situations, leading to a preference for essential goods over non-essential items like durian daifuku [1][2] Group 1 - The durian daifuku, typically a best-seller with an average daily sales of 8,000 units in Guangzhou, was left unsold during the typhoon, indicating a shift in consumer priorities towards essential goods [1] - The article attributes the decline in durian daifuku sales to the herd mentality, where consumers prioritize necessities based on social cues rather than personal preference [1][2] - The herd effect is described as a behavioral economic principle that influences decision-making, particularly in situations of uncertainty, leading individuals to conform to the majority's choices [2][3] Group 2 - The article provides an example of how a new restaurant's promotional efforts may be overshadowed by the presence of a queue, illustrating the power of social proof in consumer behavior [2] - In an environment of information overload, consumers often rely on sales rankings and recommendations to make purchasing decisions, reinforcing the influence of the herd effect [2] - The article concludes by suggesting that individuals should prioritize personal preferences over social influences, especially in times of crisis, to avoid missing out on opportunities for personal enjoyment [3]

Core Insights - The article discusses a new business model called "queue-free payment," which transforms traditional promotional strategies into a "consumption as investment" approach, addressing the dual challenges of user fatigue and merchant losses due to high traffic costs [1][11]. Mechanism Breakthrough - This model disrupts the conventional "buyer pays, seller discounts" logic by creating a dynamic cycle where users enter a queue after making a purchase, contributing to a bonus pool that rewards earlier participants with free payments. This design turns single transactions into predictable "value investments," increasing consumer engagement by 300% and enhancing viral marketing efficiency by five times [2][9]. Psychological Drivers - The success of this model relies on activating four key consumer psychological mechanisms: suspense through countdowns, altruistic incentives for sharing, tiered rewards to maintain engagement, and transparent data to eliminate doubts about fairness. These elements work together to create a closed-loop ecosystem of consumption, sharing, and repurchase [4][5][7]. Universal Validation - The model has proven effective across various sectors, with data showing significant results: a hotpot restaurant experienced queues exceeding 100 meters, community supermarket membership activity doubled, and a fresh produce platform saw a repurchase rate surpassing 25%. By mid-2025, over one million users are expected to experience "zero-cost consumption," with partner merchants seeing average customer traffic growth of over 50% and profit increases of 30% [9]. Win-Win Model - Unlike traditional promotions that often lead to merchant losses, this model creates a win-win situation for consumers, merchants, and platforms. Consumers can convert spending into potential earnings, merchants benefit from reduced customer acquisition costs through self-driven user sharing, and platforms retain traffic through well-designed rules. This "value co-creation" model meets consumer demands for high cost-performance while aligning with merchants' needs for precise customer targeting [11]. Long-term Assurance - The sustainability of this model hinges on transparent execution. Short-sighted attempts to exploit vague rules will ultimately fail. A truly sustainable model must adhere to the principle of genuine benefits, utilizing technologies like blockchain for traceable points and smart contracts for automatic rewards. By 2025, the queue-free payment model is expected to evolve beyond a marketing tool, reshaping business logic and positioning users as "value partners" in brand development, fostering a more open and trustworthy commercial ecosystem [14].

Group 1 - Economics is often perceived as a dull and complex field, with economists criticized for their obscure language and reliance on advanced mathematics [4][5] - The book by Charles Wheelan aims to simplify economic concepts, presenting them in an accessible manner without complex equations or jargon [4][5] - Economic analysis is recognized as a challenging discipline, often more complex than physical sciences, due to the unpredictability of human behavior [5][6] Group 2 - Economists play a crucial role in government decision-making, influencing policies related to economic growth, employment, and inflation [6][7] - Economic considerations are integral to various government functions, including competition promotion, pollution control, and healthcare provision [6][7] - The influence of economists extends to the business sector, where they assist companies in demand forecasting and strategic planning [7]