Core Insights - The average wholesale price of pork in China has decreased to 17.83 yuan/kg as of November 28, down 0.4% from 17.91 yuan/kg on November 21 [1] - The average price of live pigs (external three yuan) has also declined to 11.28 yuan/kg, a 3.6% drop from 11.7 yuan/kg on November 21 [1] Price Trends - The average price of pork this week is 17.88 yuan/kg, down 0.3% from last week's average of 17.93 yuan/kg [1] - The weekly average price of live pigs is 11.48 yuan/kg, a decrease of 1.5% from the previous week's average of 11.66 yuan/kg [1] Market Dynamics - The average trading weight of live pigs has slightly decreased to 124.62 kg, down 0.1% week-on-week [3] - There is an increase in the supply of live pigs as farmers accelerate the outflow of heavier pigs, while slaughterhouses are increasing their procurement of pigs from smallholders [3] Supply and Demand Outlook - The supply of live pigs is expected to increase in December, with a potential for short-term price increases due to reduced outflow plans from some farming groups [5] - However, overall supply remains abundant, which may lead to downward pressure on prices despite a slight increase in slaughter volumes [5] Long-term Projections - The industry anticipates that the supply of live pigs will remain high in the first half of next year, with production performance improvements and stable epidemic conditions [4] - Price pressures are expected to continue into the off-season, with potential recovery in the second half of next year as production capacity decreases [4]

News Summary Core Viewpoint - The national pig price has decreased, while corn prices have increased, leading to a decline in the pig-to-feed price ratio, indicating potential challenges for the pig farming industry in the near future [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Data - As of November 19, the national pig price is 12.24 yuan/kg, down 1.61% from November 12 [1]. - The wholesale corn price is 2.28 yuan/kg, up 0.88% from November 12 [1]. - The pig-to-feed price ratio is 5.37, down 2.36% from November 12 [1]. - The average loss per pig in the current breeding model is estimated at 232.66 yuan [1]. Group 2: Company Insights - Shennong Group aims to achieve a pig output target of approximately 3 million heads, with a complete cost of 12.2 yuan/kg in October [1]. Group 3: Institutional Perspectives - Zhengxin Futures predicts that pig prices may continue to face pressure over the next three months, recommending a short position on March contracts while suggesting a wait-and-see approach for short-term trading [2]. - Yide Futures notes that while demand for pigs is stable or increasing, the supply is also rising significantly, leading to continued pressure on pig prices in the short term [3]. - The acceleration in the elimination of breeding sows may provide some downward space, but the market bottom may take time to develop, with near-term futures expected to remain under pressure [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the overall price of live pigs across the country showed a downward trend. Due to high inventory and large supply, the price of live pigs is expected to continue to decline. The downward pressure on the futures market still exists, but the decline has slowed down [5]. - For trading strategies, it is recommended to short on rallies for near - month contracts, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and buy far - month call options [6]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Comprehensive Analysis & Trading Strategies Comprehensive Analysis - The overall price of live pigs across the country declined this week. The supply remains high as the scale enterprises increased their slaughter volume, and there are still many large - weight pigs in the market. The demand is average as the slaughter volume decreased and the frozen product inventory increased [5]. - In the futures market, the decline has slowed down, but there is still downward pressure due to the weak spot market [5]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Short on rallies for near - month contracts. - Arbitrage: Stay on the sidelines. - Options: Buy far - month call options [6]. 2. Data Chart & Logical Analysis 2.1 Live Pig Price - This week, the price of live pigs across the country showed a downward trend. In different regions, the price decline ranges from 0.15 to 0.9 yuan/kg. The price center has moved down due to the increased enthusiasm of scale enterprises for slaughter [11]. 2.2 Slaughter and Consumption Changes - **Slaughter**: The overall slaughter volume of live pigs increased this week. The scale enterprises increased their slaughter, while the ordinary farmers slowed down. The slaughter weight increased, and the supply pressure is expected to remain high [13]. - **Consumption**: The demand in the live pig market declined this week. Although the slaughter volume and frozen product inventory increased, the actual demand was average as the price decreased [13]. 2.3 Breeding Profit - As of the week ending September 12, the self - breeding and self - raising profit was 16.84 yuan/head, a decrease of 15.39 yuan/head from last week. The profit of purchasing piglets was - 161.93 yuan/head, a decrease of 13.53 yuan/head from last week. The breeding profit declined due to the falling price of live pigs [21]. 2.4 Sow and Piglet Prices - **Piglets**: The price of 7 - kg piglets was 294 yuan/head, a decrease of 29 yuan/head from last week. The price of 15 - kg piglets was 399 yuan/kg, a decrease of 27 yuan/head from last week. The enthusiasm for replenishing piglets was low [26]. - **Sows**: The price of sows was 1592 yuan/head, a decrease of 2 yuan/head from last week. The ratio of culled sows to commercial pigs rebounded, and the culling was normal [26]. - **Fertile Sow Inventory**: According to Yongyi, the fertile sow inventory increased slightly in August, with the comprehensive sample increasing by 0.07% and the scale enterprises by 0.02%. According to Ganglian, the inventory decreased by 0.8% in August, with the scale enterprises decreasing by 0.83% and the small and medium - sized farmers by 0.09% [28].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - From now until the end of the year, the hog market will still be suppressed by the increasing supply, and the overall trend may remain bearish. Pay attention to the potential support from the consumption recovery at low prices in September and potential inventory accumulation behaviors such as secondary fattening and withholding for weight gain in October. However, in a pessimistic market atmosphere, their influence may be only temporary and partial. Considering the current low position of the near - month contracts on the futures market, it is advisable to adopt a low - level consolidation strategy, and mainly short after the rebound following the realization of bullish factors. The far - month contracts have the expectation of capacity reduction, but a significant increase requires clearer data and further stimulus from the news. The spreads such as 35 and 37 should still be in reverse arbitrage [2][11] 3. Summary According to Relevant Contents Supply Pressure - The focus of the domestic hog market in the past two months has been the continuous release of supply pressure, with limited demand absorption and the failure of the peak - season expectation, resulting in a weak rebound in the spot market. The abundant supply comes from several aspects: enterprises responding to regulatory policies and actively reducing weight (from June to September, the monthly average planned slaughter volume of large - scale farms increased by 3.5% month - on - month and 31% year - on - year; by the end of August, the average slaughter weight of group farms decreased by 1.3 kg compared with the beginning of June, a decrease of 1.1%); the continuous increase in theoretical supply (due to the increase in sows since last year and limited impact of piglet diseases in early 2024, the theoretical supply has gradually increased month - on - month since the end of the third quarter and is significantly higher year - on - year); and the shift in small - scale farmers' expectations from withholding to slaughter since the end of June, leading to a significant decline in pen utilization. As a result, supply pressure has become the dominant factor for hog prices, with limited demand support. The current average price in Henan has dropped to around 14 yuan/kg, and the spot price in Guangxi has fallen below 13 yuan/kg [4] Reasons for the Weakness of the Futures Market - The continuous weakness of the futures market, especially the near - month contracts, is due to the limited reduction in hog weight, insufficient demand, and the uncertainty of the intensity and rhythm of policy regulation. The market had previously anticipated the successive increase in theoretical supply and the decline in spot prices due to policy - driven weight reduction. Although the futures market initially rose in late July due to clearer policy intervention, subsequent data on weight and other aspects were disappointing, consuming some of the patience of long - position funds. The weight decrease in the Yongyi data was only 0.7% month - on - month, and the weight was still 1.76 kg higher year - on - year, indicating a high inventory of live hogs. The consumption performance was also below expectations, and the uncertainty of policy regulation also made the market wait for more certainty about capacity reduction [6] Differentiated Focus on Near - and Far - Month Contracts - For near - month contracts such as 11 - 03 with a basically determined supply, the impact of policy support is limited. The main factors affecting the rhythm are the potential improvement in demand and the possibility of temporary inventory accumulation. In September, demand may increase marginally due to low prices, cooling weather, and Mid - Autumn Festival stocking. However, in the current pessimistic market sentiment, these supporting factors may have only a short - term and partial impact on the futures market. For far - month contracts, the key is the implementation of capacity reduction policies. Although the month - on - month increase in the number of sows in July - August has slowed down, the market is still waiting for clearer evidence of capacity reduction. Currently, the far - month contracts are undervalued and may be prone to rise but difficult to fall, yet a significant increase requires further news stimulus [11]