Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the live hog price fluctuated and closed down, with the main contract 2605 down 1.08% for the week [8][12]. - After the Spring Festival, the supply and demand of live hogs are both weak in the initial stage. The price fluctuation range may be relatively limited. Considering that the supply will gradually recover in the future, the loose supply and demand will put pressure on the price. It is expected that the live hog price will fluctuate slightly weaker [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Highlights Summary - **Market Review**: The live hog price fluctuated and closed down this week, with the main contract 2605 down 1.08% for the week [8][12]. - **Market Outlook**: After the festival, the slaughter rhythm of the breeding end will gradually resume. The short - term supply pressure is limited. The supply in the next two months is relatively sufficient. Attention should be paid to the second - fattening market. The demand turns from strong to weak after the festival. Overall, the supply and demand are weak at the beginning after the festival, and the live hog price is expected to fluctuate slightly weaker [8]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Markets 3.2.1. Futures Market - **Price Movement**: The futures price fluctuated and closed down this week, with the main contract 2605 down 1.08% for the week [12]. - **Net Position and Warehouse Receipts**: As of February 13, the net short position of the top 20 holders of live hog futures decreased by 884 lots compared with last week, and the number of live hog futures warehouse receipts was 1027, an increase of 300 lots compared with the previous week [18]. - **Contract Spreads**: The spread between lh2605 and lh2607 contracts is - 720, and the spread between lh2605 and lh2609 contracts is - 1640 [23]. 3.2.2. Spot Market - **Base Difference**: The basis of the live hog March contract this week was 1660 yuan/ton, and the basis of the May contract was 900 yuan/ton [28]. - **Live Hog and Piglet Prices**: The national average price of live hogs this week was 11.62 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.88 yuan/kg compared with last week. The average price of 15 - kg weaned piglets was 29.24 yuan/kg, the same as last week [38]. - **Pork and Sows Prices**: On February 12, the national average market price of pork was 18.07 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.41 yuan/kg compared with the previous week. The average market price of binary sows was 32.47 yuan/kg, the same as the previous week [44]. - **Pig - grain Ratio**: As of the week of February 4, 2026, the pig - grain ratio was 5.68, a decrease of 0.08 compared with the previous week [48]. 3.3. Industry Situation 3.3.1. Upstream - **Sow Inventory**: In December 2025, the official inventory of reproductive sows was 39.61 million. According to Mysteel data, in January 2026, the inventory of reproductive sows in 123 large - scale farms increased slightly by 0.02% month - on - month, while that in 85 small and medium - sized farms decreased by 0.36% month - on - month [50][54]. - **Live Hog Inventory**: At the end of the fourth quarter of 2025, the live hog inventory was 429.67 million, a 1.6% decrease month - on - month and a 0.5% increase year - on - year. In January 2026, the inventory of commercial pigs in 123 large - scale farms decreased by 0.70% month - on - month, while that in 85 small and medium - sized farms decreased by 0.02% month - on - month [56][59]. - **Slaughter Volume and Average Weight**: In January 2026, the slaughter volume of commercial pigs in 123 large - scale farms decreased by 3.27% month - on - month, and that in 85 small and medium - sized farms decreased by 0.71% month - on - month. The average slaughter weight of live hogs this week was 122.89 kg, a decrease of 0.37 kg compared with last week [61][64]. 3.3.2. Industry Profit - **Livestock and Poultry Breeding Profits**: As of February 13, the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding was 53.1 yuan/head, a decrease of 38.32 yuan/head; the profit of self - breeding and self - raising live hogs was - 98.32 yuan/head, a decrease of 60.23 yuan/head. The profit of laying hens was - 0.09 yuan/hen, a decrease of 0.11 yuan/hen week - on - week, and the profit of 817 meat - hybrid chickens was - 0.84 yuan/chicken, a decrease of 1.05 yuan/chicken week - on - week [69]. 3.3.3. Other Industry Aspects - **Pork Imports**: In December 2025, China's pork imports were 60,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 33.33%; from January to December, the imports were 980,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.41% [75]. - **Substitute Products**: As of the week of February 13, the price of white - striped chickens was 14 yuan/kg, the same as last week. As of the week of February 12, the average price difference between standard and fat pigs in the country was - 1.12 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.03 yuan/kg compared with last week [79]. - **Feed Situation**: As of February 13, the spot price of soybean meal was 3167.71 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.57 yuan/ton compared with the previous week; the spot price of corn was 2372.16 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.73 yuan/ton compared with the previous week. The closing price of the Dalian Commodity Exchange's live hog feed cost index was 924.22, and the average market price of live hog feed was 2.67 yuan/kg, the same as last week. In December 2025, the monthly feed output was 30.086 million tons, an increase of 307,000 tons month - on - month. In January 2026, the sales of piglet feed decreased by 0.19% month - on - month and increased by 0.92% year - on - year [86][90][96]. - **CPI**: As of January 2026, China's CPI increased by 0.2% year - on - year [102]. 3.3.4. Downstream - **Slaughter Enterprises**: In the 7th week of 2026, the operating rate of slaughter enterprises was 45.97%, an increase of 7.48 percentage points compared with last week and an increase of 25.56 percentage points year - on - year. The fresh - sales ratio of key domestic slaughter enterprises was 88.55%, an increase of 0.37% compared with last week, and the frozen - product storage rate was 17.00%, the same as last week [106]. - **Slaughter Volume and Catering Consumption**: As of December 2025, the slaughter volume of designated live hog slaughtering enterprises was 48.91 million, an increase of 17.52% month - on - month. In December 2025, the national catering revenue was 573.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.19% [112]. 3.3.5. Live Hog - related Stocks - The report shows the trend charts of Muyuan Co., Ltd. and Wens Co., Ltd., but no specific analysis of the stocks is provided [114][116]

研究报告 能繁去化不及预期 供应压制磨底延续 华龙期货投资咨询部 研究员：刘维新 期货从业资格证号：F3073404 投资咨询资格证号：Z0020700 电话：0931-8894545 邮箱：305127042@qq.com 的免责声明。 摘要： 【行情复盘】 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 市场对上半年生猪出栏压力延续的担忧持续升温，引发盘面 集中抛压，上周生猪期货盘面震荡走弱，截至上周五收盘，生猪 期货主力 LH2603 合约报 11565 元/吨，涨 0.26%。 【基本面分析】 报告日期：2026 年 1 月 26 日星期一 上周猪价先涨后跌，周均价重心上移，全国生猪出栏均价报 12.87 元/公斤，环比上涨 1.42%；仔猪周均价 343.33 元/头，环 比涨 11.09%，养殖户节前提前补栏控成本、集团场刚性补栏及部 分区域产能去化共同提振需求；二元母猪市场交投清淡，二元母 猪均价 1431 元/头，后备养殖户补栏积极性偏低；淘汰母猪价格 随猪价回暖上行，全国均价 9.77 元/公斤，环比涨 2.84%，养殖 端惜淘情绪浓厚；标肥价差环比走扩至-0.75 元/公斤，气温走低 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week (1.12 - 1.18), the spot market for live pigs showed a strong - running trend, with prices of 20KG piglets in Henan at 23.2 yuan/kg, live pigs in Henan at 13.18 yuan/kg, and 50KG binary sows nationwide at 1559 yuan/head. The supply was tight due to the non -放量 of group enterprises and strong reluctance to sell among northern and southern retail farmers. The demand side saw stable slaughter volume despite losses during the peak slaughter season. The average national slaughter weight was 124.58KG, a 0.16% increase from last week. In the futures market, live pig futures prices fluctuated strongly, with the LH2603 contract closing at 11980 yuan/ton, and the basis at 1080 yuan/ton [1]. - Next week (1.19 - 1.25), the spot price of live pigs will fluctuate and adjust. Since late December, the enthusiasm for slaughter among enterprises and the social side has been insufficient, and secondary fattening has re - entered the market, starting social inventory accumulation. However, the downstream white - strip market is not prosperous during the peak season, and the slaughter end is in the red. From the supply perspective, standard pig supply will continue to increase until April 2026, but due to strong market expectations and multiple rounds of inventory accumulation sentiment, the inventory supply pressure has not been effectively released. From the demand perspective, the late Spring Festival and strong pre - holiday peak - season expectations have led to pre - emptive speculative demand in January. Overall, inventory accumulation continues in mid - and early January, and the weight - reduction plan is postponed, indicating that the social side has not relieved the pressure, and a stage of simultaneous increase in supply and demand is awaited [2]. - In the futures market, the price of the LH2603 contract closed at 11980 yuan/ton on January 16. In mid - and early January, the enterprise slaughter progress was slow, the weight increased, secondary fattening entered the market, and inventory accumulation restarted. The downstream losses during the peak season significantly inhibited the increase in slaughter volume. The weight - reduction plan before the Spring Festival has not been implemented, and the pressure is postponed. The stage of simultaneous increase in supply and demand is approaching. Wait for the spot market on the Laba Festival for confirmation. If the weight reduction at the end of the month fails to meet expectations, pay attention to the trading of post - holiday off - season expectations and set stop - loss and take - profit points. The short - term support level for the LH2603 contract is 11000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 12500 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - This week's basis was 1080 yuan/ton, and the LH2603 - LH2605 monthly spread was - 175 yuan/ton [7]. 3.2 Supply - This week's average weight was 124.58KG (last week: 124.38KG). In November, pork production was 546 million tons, a 2.6% month - on - month decrease; pork imports were 6.05 million tons, a 14.16% month - on - month decrease [10]. 3.3 Demand No specific demand - related summary content other than the description in the market outlook section.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report Fundamental view - After the holiday, both the slaughter volume of large - scale enterprises and the slaughter volume decreased, and the spot price of live pigs rose slightly. However, the overall supply pressure remains high, the progress of sows' capacity reduction is slow, and the demand is limited. The pattern of weak supply and demand remains unchanged, and the pig price is expected to continue to adjust weakly [10][23]. - The inventory of reproductive sows is the core indicator of pig production capacity. In October 2025, it dropped to 39.9 million, falling below 40 million again after 17 months, indicating initial results in capacity regulation. But it is still in the green area of capacity regulation, not a sign of a new pig - price surge cycle. Due to improved production efficiency, the capacity reduction cycle is lengthened. The pig slaughter volume is expected to increase until May 2026, and the lowest price in this cycle is predicted to be in Q1 2026. The weak spot market and reduced secondary fattening have weakened support for pig prices [10]. Strategy view and outlook - The industry is at a crucial stage of short - term price pressure and long - term capacity clearance. The capacity reduction progress is slow, and the supply of commercial pigs is expected to increase until the first half of 2026. Domestic pork consumption is declining, and the pattern of increasing supply and weak demand is hard to change in the short term. There may be a "concentrated increase" in supply before the Spring Festival, and the spot price will remain low. Attention should be paid to factors such as the inventory of reproductive sows, the slaughter rhythm, and secondary fattening scale [12]. - For the main contract, the resistance level is 12000 - 12300. In terms of options, one can buy call options of far - month contracts with a light position [13]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Viewpoint and Strategy - **Fundamental view**: Spot price rose slightly after the holiday, but supply pressure remains high and demand is limited; capacity regulation has achieved initial results, but the capacity reduction cycle is long. Pig slaughter volume will increase until May 2026, and the lowest price in this cycle may be in Q1 2026 [10]. - **Strategy view**: The main contract resistance level is 12000 - 12300, and one can buy call options of far - month contracts with a light position [13]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Spot price**: The national average live - pig slaughter price was 12.41 yuan/kg, up 0.15 yuan/kg from last week, a week - on - week increase of 1.22% and a year - on - year decrease of 22.58%. The price is expected to continue weak adjustment [23]. - **Futures - spot basis**: No specific analysis provided. - **Futures spread**: No specific analysis provided. - **Standard - fat price**: The standard - fat price spread narrowed by 0.18 yuan/kg to - 0.61 yuan/kg this week [38]. - **Prices of piglets and binary sows**: The weekly average price of 7 - kg piglets was 253.33 yuan/head, up 21.66 yuan/head from last week, a week - on - week increase of 9.35% and a year - on - year decrease of 37.41%. The price may rise to 400 yuan/head in the middle and late first quarter [42]. - **Price of culled sows**: The price of culled sows adjusted narrowly with the live - pig price. It may fluctuate next week [45]. 3.3 Capacity - **Inventory of reproductive sows**: In October 2025, it was 39.9 million, down 1.1% month - on - month, falling below 40 million again after 17 months. In December, the inventory continued to decline slowly, and it may decline slightly in January [50][54]. - **Culling volume of reproductive sows**: In December, the culling volume of 123 large - scale farms was 115,814, a month - on - month increase of 3.06% and a year - on - year increase of 18.80%. The culling volume of 85 small and medium - sized farms decreased slightly. It is expected to increase in January [57]. 3.4 Supply Side - **Inventory of commercial pigs**: In December, the inventory of 123 large - scale farms was 36.9216 million, down 0.23% month - on - month and up 4.72% year - on - year; that of 85 small and medium - sized farms was 1.5558 million, down 0.09% month - on - month and up 8.17% year - on - year. It is expected to increase in January [63]. - **Slaughter volume of commercial pigs**: In November, the slaughter volume of 123 large - scale farms was 11.3649 million, down 0.65% month - on - month and up 15.59% year - on - year; that of 85 small and medium - sized farms was 0.5151 million, down 2.03% month - on - month and up 29.75% year - on - year. The slaughter volume may increase in December [66]. - **Average slaughter weight of commercial pigs**: The average slaughter weight adjusted narrowly and the weekly center of gravity moved down slightly [72]. 3.5 Demand Side - **Slaughter volume of live pigs**: In December 2025, as the curing season approached, the slaughter volume of slaughterhouses increased by about 20% [77]. - **Cold storage rate of slaughterhouses**: After the holiday, the market demand declined, and the cold storage rate continued to decline as slaughterhouses sold frozen meat [82]. - **Operating rate and fresh - meat sales rate of slaughterhouses**: After the New Year's Day holiday, the operating rate decreased to 36.63%, down 3.71 percentage points from last week and up 0.68 percentage points year - on - year. It is expected to run weakly next week [85]. - **Prices of substitutes**: No specific analysis provided. 3.6 Cost and Profit - **Profit of pig farming and slaughtering**: At the end of December, the self - breeding and self - raising model turned profitable, with a profit of 86 yuan/head. This week, the overall loss of the pig - farming industry decreased. The self - breeding and self - raising model had a profit of 59.26 yuan/head, and the model of purchasing piglets still had a loss of 74.89 yuan/head, but the loss narrowed [99]. - **Slaughter gross profit and feed - meat ratio**: No specific analysis provided. - **Pig - grain ratio**: This week, the pig - grain ratio was 5.37, up 1.14% week - on - week. It is expected to be stable with a slight decline next week [107].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [3] Core Views - The planting industry is focusing on enhancing crop yields and ensuring food security through advanced agricultural technologies and policies [1][12] - The pig farming sector is currently experiencing significant losses, with average losses per head reaching 244.70 yuan for self-bred pigs and 375.29 yuan for purchased piglets, indicating a need for capacity reduction [2][13] - The report anticipates a gradual recovery in pig prices due to government policies aimed at reducing breeding sow numbers and improving overall industry efficiency [5][13] Summary by Sections Planting Industry - The Ministry of Agriculture emphasized the importance of increasing crop yields and implementing comprehensive solutions tailored to specific regions and crops [1][12] - The report highlights the potential for genetically modified crops to significantly enhance yields and self-sufficiency in key varieties [1][12] - Recommended stocks in the planting sector include Beidahuang and Suqian Agricultural Development, with a focus on leading seed companies like Dabeinong and Longping High-Tech [1][12] Pig Farming - The average price of live pigs is reported at 11.14 yuan/kg, with a week-on-week decrease of 4.95%, reflecting an oversupply in the market [2][13] - The industry is facing deep losses, prompting a proactive reduction in production capacity, with a target to decrease the breeding sow population by approximately 1 million [5][13] - Recommended stocks in the pig farming sector include Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff, and other companies with strong financial positions and cost improvements [5][13] Key Agricultural Products - Corn: The average price is 2276.08 yuan/ton, down 1.61% week-on-week [26] - Wheat: The average price is 2450.11 yuan/ton, up 0.30% week-on-week [29] - Soybeans: The average price is 3988.53 yuan/ton, with a slight increase of 0.03% [41] - Cotton: The average price is 14580 yuan/ton, down 0.98% week-on-week [45] Feed and Vitamin Prices - The average price of pig feed is 2.64 yuan/kg, down 0.75% week-on-week [52] - Vitamin E is priced at 43.10 yuan/kg, reflecting a significant decrease of 12.58% [52]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of live pigs dropped significantly, with the main contract 2601 falling 3.87% weekly. Considering the theoretical slaughter pressure in the near - term based on the inventory data of newborn piglets and breeding sows, and the active slaughter of large - scale farms, the supply is under pressure. The secondary fattening entry showed signs of cooling. Although the terminal demand is expected to improve with the temperature drop, the current demand is lower than expected. Overall, due to the cooling of secondary fattening entry and the loose supply - demand situation, it is expected that the price of live pigs will continue to be weak. It is recommended to conduct short - side trading operations on the live pig 2601 contract [6]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - The price of live pigs dropped significantly, with the main contract 2601 falling 3.87% weekly. The supply is under pressure due to theoretical slaughter pressure and active slaughter by large - scale farms. Secondary fattening entry supported the spot price in the early part of the month but showed signs of weakening. The terminal demand is expected to improve but is currently lower than expected. It is expected that the price of live pigs will continue to be weak, and short - side trading operations on the live pig 2601 contract are recommended [6]. 3.2 Futures Market - **Price Movement**: The futures price dropped this week, with the main contract 2601 falling 3.87% weekly [8][11]. - **Net Position and Warehouse Receipts**: As of October 17, the net short position of the top 20 holders in live pig futures was 30,554 lots, a decrease of 2,535 lots from last week. The number of futures warehouse receipts was 111, an increase of 111 from the previous week [17]. - **Contract Spreads**: The spread between lh2601 and lh2603 contracts was 390, and the spread between lh2601 and lh2605 contracts was - 250 [22]. 3.3 Spot Market - **Base Difference**: This week, the base difference of the live pig November contract was 150 yuan/ton, and the base difference of the January contract was - 470 yuan/ton [27]. - **Price of Live Pigs and Piglets**: The average national live pig market price was 11.27 yuan/kg this week, a decrease of 0.21 yuan/kg from last week. The average price of 15 - kg weaned piglets was 22.79 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.18 yuan/kg from last week [36]. - **Pork and Breeding Sow Prices**: As of the week of October 9, the national pork market price was 23.89 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.28 yuan/kg from the previous week. The average market price of binary sows last week was 32.50 yuan/kg, remaining the same as the previous week [40]. - **Pig - to - Grain Ratio**: As of the week of October 8, 2025, the pig - to - grain ratio was 5.46, a decrease of 0.22 from the previous week [44]. 3.4 Upstream Situation - **Breeding Sow Inventory**: In late August 2025, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.38 million heads, a decrease of 40,000 heads month - on - month, an increase of 0.05% year - on - year, reaching 103.5% of the normal inventory. In September, according to Mysteel data, the inventory of breeding sows in 123 large - scale farms decreased slightly by 0.28% month - on - month and increased by 1.09% year - on - year, while in 85 small and medium - sized farms, it decreased by 1.50% month - on - month and increased by 2.10% year - on - year [49]. - **Live Pig Inventory**: In Q2 2023, the live pig inventory was 424.47 million heads, an increase of 7.16 million heads from the end of the previous quarter and an increase of 9.14 million heads year - on - year. In September, according to Mysteel data, the live pig inventory in 123 large - scale farms increased by 1.44% month - on - month and 5.29% year - on - year, and in 85 small and medium - sized farms, it increased by 2.93% month - on - month and 6.29% year - on - year [53]. - **Slaughter Volume and Average Weight**: In September, according to Mysteel data, the slaughter volume of 123 large - scale farms decreased by 4.54% month - on - month and increased by 23.49% year - on - year, while in 85 small and medium - sized farms, it increased by 1.39% month - on - month and 33.52% year - on - year. The average slaughter weight of national outer - ternary live pigs this week was 123.43 kg, a decrease of 0.05 kg from last week, a month - on - month increase of 0.05%, and a year - on - year decrease of 0.29% [58]. 3.5 Industry Situation - **Breeding Profits**: As of October 17, the breeding profit of purchased piglets reported a loss of 375.29 yuan/head, with the loss expanding by 75.25 yuan/head; the breeding profit of self - bred and self - raised live pigs was a loss of 244.7 yuan/head, a decrease of 92.55 yuan/head month - on - month. The egg - laying hen breeding profit was - 0.46 yuan/head, a decrease of 0.06 yuan/head week - on - week, and the 817 meat - hybrid chicken breeding profit was 1.40 yuan/head [63]. - **Pork Imports**: In August 2025, China's pork imports were 80,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.11%. From January to August, the cumulative pork imports were 710,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.43% [68]. - **Substitute Products**: The price of white - striped chickens dropped, and the spread between standard and fat pigs widened [69]. - **Feed Situation**: As of October 17, the spot price of soybean meal was 2993.43 yuan/ton, a decrease of 57.14 yuan/ton from the previous week; the corn price was 2269.22 yuan/ton, a decrease of 34.9 yuan/ton from the previous week. The closing price of the Dalian Commodity Exchange pig feed cost index was 869.88, a decrease of 1.23% from last week, and the price of finishing pig compound feed was 3.34 yuan/kg, remaining the same as last week. As of August 2025, the monthly feed output was 29.272 million tons, an increase of 999,000 tons month - on - month. In September 2025, the sales of piglet feed decreased by 0.01% month - on - month and increased by 71.08% year - on - year [75][80][85]. - **CPI**: As of September 2025, China's CPI decreased by 0.3% year - on - year [89]. 3.6 Downstream Situation - **Slaughter and Consumption**: In the 42nd week, the slaughter enterprise's开工 rate was 32.38%, a decrease of 2.15 percentage points from last week and an increase of 5.07 percentage points year - on - year, with the weekly开工 rate fluctuating between 30.95% and 34.44%. The frozen product storage capacity rate was 17.84%, an increase of 0.09% from last week. As of August 2025, the slaughter volume of designated pig slaughtering enterprises was 33.5 million heads, an increase of 5.81% from the previous month. In August 2025, the national catering revenue was 449.57 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.1% [92][97]. 3.7 Live Pig Stocks - The report presented the trend charts of Muyuan Co., Ltd. and Wens Co., Ltd. [98][101]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - The spot price of live pigs is weakly operating, and the futures price is also in a weak state. The 9 - month supply and demand of live pigs both increase, but due to the inventory cycle turning from inventory accumulation to de - stocking and the production capacity cycle entering the incremental release stage, the probability of a weak peak season before the double festivals increases, and the spot price is still in the process of finding the bottom [2][3] - The LH2511 contract in the futures market is currently in a situation of high - capacity realization, high inventory, and high premium. It is temporarily anchored at the self - breeding and self - raising cost of 12,000 yuan/ton. Consider shorting the valuation of the May contract, and pay attention to stop - profit and stop - loss [4] Group 3: Summary by Directory This Week's Market Review (9.5 - 9.21) - **Spot Market**: The price of live pigs is weakly operating. The price of 20KG piglets in Henan is 27.4 yuan/kg, the price of live pigs in Henan is 13.48 yuan/kg, and the price of 50KG binary sows nationwide is 1,595 yuan/head, all remaining unchanged from last week. The supply is still loose, and the demand is weak. The average slaughter weight nationwide is 124.72KG, with a month - on - month increase of 0.24% [2] - **Futures Market**: The price of the live - pig futures LH2511 contract is weakly operating. The highest price is 13,335 yuan/ton, the lowest price is 12,770 yuan/ton, and the closing price is 12,825 yuan/ton, down from 13,255 yuan/ton last week. The basis of the LH2511 contract is 105 yuan/ton, down from 225 yuan/ton last week [2] Next Week's Market Outlook (9.22 - 9.28) - **Spot Market**: The spot price of live pigs is expected to operate weakly. In September, the supply pressure is large, and the demand has a seasonal increase. The inventory cycle is changing from inventory accumulation to de - stocking, and the production capacity cycle is in the incremental release stage, so the probability of a weak peak season before the double festivals increases [3] - **Futures Market**: The LH2511 contract is currently facing high - capacity realization, high inventory, and high premium. It is temporarily anchored at 12,000 yuan/ton. The price of piglets is expected to continue to decline, and it is considered to short the valuation of the May contract. The short - term support level of the LH2511 contract is 12,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 13,500 yuan/ton [4] Key Data - **Basis and Monthly Spread**: This week's basis is 105 yuan/ton, and the LH2511 - LH2601 monthly spread is - 525 yuan/ton [9] - **Production and Import**: In July, the pork output is 5.011 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 5.4%; the pork import is 88,300 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.18% [12]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the overall price of live pigs across the country showed a downward trend. Due to high inventory and large supply, the price of live pigs is expected to continue to decline. The downward pressure on the futures market still exists, but the decline has slowed down [5]. - For trading strategies, it is recommended to short on rallies for near - month contracts, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and buy far - month call options [6]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Comprehensive Analysis & Trading Strategies Comprehensive Analysis - The overall price of live pigs across the country declined this week. The supply remains high as the scale enterprises increased their slaughter volume, and there are still many large - weight pigs in the market. The demand is average as the slaughter volume decreased and the frozen product inventory increased [5]. - In the futures market, the decline has slowed down, but there is still downward pressure due to the weak spot market [5]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Short on rallies for near - month contracts. - Arbitrage: Stay on the sidelines. - Options: Buy far - month call options [6]. 2. Data Chart & Logical Analysis 2.1 Live Pig Price - This week, the price of live pigs across the country showed a downward trend. In different regions, the price decline ranges from 0.15 to 0.9 yuan/kg. The price center has moved down due to the increased enthusiasm of scale enterprises for slaughter [11]. 2.2 Slaughter and Consumption Changes - **Slaughter**: The overall slaughter volume of live pigs increased this week. The scale enterprises increased their slaughter, while the ordinary farmers slowed down. The slaughter weight increased, and the supply pressure is expected to remain high [13]. - **Consumption**: The demand in the live pig market declined this week. Although the slaughter volume and frozen product inventory increased, the actual demand was average as the price decreased [13]. 2.3 Breeding Profit - As of the week ending September 12, the self - breeding and self - raising profit was 16.84 yuan/head, a decrease of 15.39 yuan/head from last week. The profit of purchasing piglets was - 161.93 yuan/head, a decrease of 13.53 yuan/head from last week. The breeding profit declined due to the falling price of live pigs [21]. 2.4 Sow and Piglet Prices - **Piglets**: The price of 7 - kg piglets was 294 yuan/head, a decrease of 29 yuan/head from last week. The price of 15 - kg piglets was 399 yuan/kg, a decrease of 27 yuan/head from last week. The enthusiasm for replenishing piglets was low [26]. - **Sows**: The price of sows was 1592 yuan/head, a decrease of 2 yuan/head from last week. The ratio of culled sows to commercial pigs rebounded, and the culling was normal [26]. - **Fertile Sow Inventory**: According to Yongyi, the fertile sow inventory increased slightly in August, with the comprehensive sample increasing by 0.07% and the scale enterprises by 0.02%. According to Ganglian, the inventory decreased by 0.8% in August, with the scale enterprises decreasing by 0.83% and the small and medium - sized farmers by 0.09% [28].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply side in August shows an increase in the slaughter plan of the breeding end compared to the previous month, resulting in a relatively loose market supply. However, as prices fall, some farms may be inclined to hold out for higher prices, and the entry of second - round fattening has increased, which will slow down the slaughter rhythm. Additionally, the current price difference between fat and standard pigs has widened, providing conditions for later pressure on stocks [6]. - On the demand side, the state will conduct central pork reserve purchases in the near future, boosting market confidence. With sufficient pig supply and improved demand in some areas, the slaughterhouse operating rate has moderately rebounded. It is expected that demand will improve with the start of school and subsequent double - festival stocking [6]. - Overall, although the slaughter pressure in August restrains the performance of spot prices, the state's reserve purchases boost market confidence, and the upcoming start of school brings expectations of improved demand. It is expected that the short - term hog futures price will fluctuate slightly stronger within a range. It is recommended to hold long positions lightly, set stop - losses, and take profits opportunistically [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The hog price declined, with the main contract 2511 falling 0.75% on a weekly basis [6][10]. - **Market Outlook**: Supply is relatively loose in August, but factors such as farms' price - holding intentions, increased second - round fattening, and a widened fat - standard price difference will affect the supply rhythm. Demand is expected to improve due to state reserve purchases, the start of school, and double - festival stocking. Short - term futures prices are expected to fluctuate slightly stronger within a range [6]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Market**: The futures price declined this week, with the main contract 2511 down 0.75% week - on - week. As of August 22, the net short position of the top 20 holders decreased by 1654 lots compared to last week, and the number of futures warrants was 430, unchanged from last week [10][16]. - **Spot Market**: - The basis of the September contract was - 160 yuan/ton, and that of the November contract was - 240 yuan/ton this week [20]. - The national average hog price was 13.82 yuan/kg, up 0.02 yuan/kg from last week but down 2.88% from last month. The average price of 15 - kg weaned piglets was 28.72 yuan/kg, down 2.35 yuan from last week and 15.18% from the same period last month [27]. - The national average pork price was 25.16 yuan/kg in the week of August 7, down 0.05 yuan/kg from the previous week. The average market price of binary sows was 32.52 yuan/kg, down 0.01 yuan/kg from the previous week [31]. - As of August 13, the hog - grain ratio was 5.94, down 0.08 from the previous week, remaining below 6:1 [36]. 3.3. Industry Situation - **Upstream**: - In June 2025, the inventory of breeding sows was 40430000 heads, a month - on - month increase of 10000 heads and a year - on - year increase of 0.12%, reaching 103.7% of the normal inventory. According to Mysteel data, in July, the inventory of breeding sows in 123 large - scale farms increased slightly by 0.01% month - on - month and 3.03% year - on - year, while that in 85 small and medium - sized farms decreased slightly by 0.17% month - on - month but increased 6.67% year - on - year [41]. - In the second quarter, the hog inventory increased year - on - year, and in July, it increased month - on - month according to institutional data. In July, the inventory of commercial hogs in 123 large - scale farms increased by 1.11% month - on - month and 5.28% year - on - year, and that in 85 small and medium - sized farms increased by 2.49% month - on - month and 7.23% year - on - year [44]. - In July, the slaughter volume decreased month - on - month, and the average slaughter weight increased. The slaughter volume of commercial hogs in 123 large - scale farms was 10436200 heads, a month - on - month decrease of 3.08% but a year - on - year increase of 18.60%. The slaughter volume of 85 small and medium - sized farms was 480600 heads, a month - on - month decrease of 1.46% but a year - on - year increase of 57.67%. The average slaughter weight of national outer - ternary hogs this week was 123.38 kg, an increase of 0.15 kg from last week [49]. - **Industry Profit**: - As of August 22, the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding reported a loss of 151.8 yuan/head, with the loss decreasing by 5.25 yuan/head. The profit of self - breeding and self - raising hogs was 33.95 yuan/head, a month - on - month increase of 5.1 yuan/head. The profit of laying hens was - 0.15 yuan/head, with the weekly loss decreasing by 0.11 yuan/head, and the profit of 817 meat - hybrid chickens was 1.01 yuan/head [54]. - **Domestic Situation**: In July, China's pork imports were 90000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.6%. From January to July, the cumulative pork imports were 630000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.1% [59]. - **Substitute Situation**: As of the week of August 22, the price of white - striped chickens was 14.4 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.3 yuan/kg from last week. As of the week of August 21, the average price difference between standard and fat hogs was - 0.48 yuan/kg, the same as last week [64]. - **Feed Situation**: - As of August 22, the spot price of soybean meal was 3084.29 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12.57 yuan/ton from the previous week, and the price of corn was 2373.53 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20.59 yuan/ton from the previous week [69]. - As of August 22, the closing price of the Dalian Commodity Exchange hog feed cost index was 906.49, a decrease of 2.19% from last week, and the price of finishing hog compound feed was 3.34 yuan/kg, unchanged from last week [72]. - As of July 2025, the monthly feed production was 2827.3 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 110.4 tons [77]. - **CPI**: As of July 2025, China's CPI increased by 0.0% year - on - year [81]. - **Downstream**: - In the 34th week, the operating rate of slaughtering enterprises was 28.71%, an increase of 0.92 percentage points from last week, and the domestic frozen product storage rate was 17.56%, a slight increase of 0.04 percentage points from last week [84]. - As of June 2025, the slaughter volume of designated hog slaughtering enterprises was 30060000 heads, a month - on - month decrease of 6.53%. In July 2025, the national catering revenue was 450400000000 yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.1% [89]. - **Hog - related Stocks**: The report mentions the stock trends of Muyuan Co., Ltd. and Wens Co., Ltd., but no specific data analysis is provided [90].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term: Under the guidance of the Ministry of Agriculture for orderly slaughter, some enterprises' early slaughter and the release of previously second - fattened pigs increase supply pressure. However, the considerable spread between standard and fat pigs and farmers' reluctance to sell support the bottom of pig prices [4]. - Medium - term: Piglets showed an increasing trend from January to June, so the second half of 2025 is expected to see an increase in the pig market, and over - optimism should be avoided [4]. - Long - term: The "anti - involution" process takes time. If capacity control measures are implemented, the number of pig slaughter is expected to decline in about ten months, which may push up far - month pig prices [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Spot Performance - Pig prices: The national average pig price decreased by 0.94 yuan to 14.14 yuan/kg this month. Prices in various regions also declined [3][9]. - Sow prices: The average spot price of culled sows decreased by 0.78 yuan to 10.29 yuan/kg, and the average price of 50kg binary sows decreased by 0.95 yuan to 1,641.3 yuan/head [3][11]. - Piglet prices: The average price of 7kg piglets remained stable at 444.76 yuan/head, while the average price of 15kg piglets decreased by 48.27 yuan to 468.55 yuan/head [3][13]. 3.2 Key Data - Spot prices: Most prices showed changes, such as the national average price of 15kg piglets decreasing by 0.27 yuan to 36.37 yuan/kg [7]. - Short - term supply: The national pig inventory increased by 7160 thousand heads to 424470 thousand heads, and the average slaughter weight increased by 0.18 kg to 123.67 kg [7]. - Medium - term supply: The number of piglet births increased by 10.63 thousand heads to 554.02 thousand heads, and the survival rate remained at 92.7% [7]. - Long - term supply: The inventory of breeding sows increased by 10 thousand heads to 40430 thousand heads, and the culling volume of breeding sows increased by 3296 heads to 109413 heads [7]. - Demand side: The national pig slaughter rate increased by 0.05% to 26.8%, and the Shanghai Xijiao white - striped meat arrival volume decreased by 1100 heads to 5600 heads [7]. - Policy: The national pig - grain ratio decreased by 0.03 to 5.8 [7]. - Cost: The total cost of purchasing piglets increased by 16.32 yuan to 1719.30 yuan/head, and the self - breeding cost decreased by 7.68 yuan to 1585.76 yuan/head [7]. - Profit: The self - breeding profit increased by 0.57 yuan to 29.21 yuan/head, and the profit of purchasing piglets decreased by 0.43 yuan to - 193.12 yuan/head [7]. 3.3 Short - term Supply - Inventory and slaughter: The official inventory in June was 424470 thousand heads, and the planned slaughter of sample enterprises in July increased. The average slaughter weight increased, and the post - slaughter weight of white - striped pigs decreased [23]. - Speculation: The spread between standard and fat pigs widened, and the proportion of large pigs remained at a high level [25]. 3.4 Medium - term Supply - Piglets: In June, the piglet survival rate remained stable, the number of piglet births increased, and the piglet feed sales increased slightly. The pig supply in Q4 2025 is expected to be high [30]. 3.5 Long - term Supply - Breeding sows: In June, the inventory of breeding sows increased, the culling volume increased slightly, and the average number of healthy piglets per litter decreased slightly [32]. 3.6 Demand - Slaughter and sales: Affected by the off - season, demand was weak. The slaughter rate increased slightly, the fresh - sales rate decreased, the daily slaughter volume decreased, and the slaughter profit increased [37]. 3.7 Cost Analysis - Feed: The corn price decreased, and the soybean meal price increased [44]. - Pigs: The cost of purchasing piglets and self - breeding both decreased [46]. 3.8 Breeding Profit - Pigs: The self - breeding profit decreased, and the profit of purchasing piglets decreased further [48]. 3.9 Price Ratio - The national pig - grain ratio decreased, and the piglet feed - to - meat ratio remained high [50].