Report Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - The current de - stocking of the pig industry is still falling short of expectations, and the probability of an L - shaped bottom is increasing. The price bottom has not been reached, and the spot price in April is expected to continue to decline. The cycle bottom may shift from a W - shaped to an L - shaped, and the 5 - month contract premium is expanding [3][4] Summary by Directory 1. This Week's Market Review (3.23 - 3.29) Spot Market - The price of 20KG piglets in Henan was 27.25 yuan/kg (unchanged from last week), the price of live pigs in Henan was 9.43 yuan/kg (down from 9.93 yuan/kg last week), and the price of 50KG binary sows nationwide was 1,536 yuan/head (unchanged from last week). Group enterprises increased their live pig sales, and there was passive pressure on the market. Slaughter volume continued to rise above the seasonal level, and the volume of passive cold storage increased. Secondary fattening re - entered the market in the second half of the week. The average national slaughter weight was 125.89KG, a 0.27% increase from last week [1] Futures Market - The price of the LH2605 contract of live pig futures was weak. The highest price was 10,180 yuan/ton, the lowest was 9,815 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 9,965 yuan/ton (down from 10,220 yuan/ton last week). The basis of the main contract was - 535 yuan/ton (down from - 290 yuan/ton last week) [2] 2. Next Week's Market Outlook (3.30 - 4.5) Spot Market - The spot price of live pigs will be weak. In March, enterprises' willingness to actively sell and de - stock increased, and the sales progress was slightly faster. The slaughter volume was at a high level in the same period of history, but the weight of the pigs did not decrease, and passive inventory accumulation was still occurring, indicating that the inventory volume far exceeded expectations and the price bottom had not been reached. From the supply perspective, the supply of standard pigs will continue to increase until April 2026. After the Spring Festival, passive inventory accumulation continued, and the weight was at the highest level in the same period in recent years. The dual pressure of the production capacity cycle and the inventory cycle will be realized in April - May, and the supply pressure will be at a marginal high. From the demand perspective, the market had strong expectations for the pre - Spring Festival peak season, driving speculative demand in January, but the negative feedback of downstream losses during the peak season was evident, resulting in the increase in the peak season being less than expected. After the post - festival spot price decline, the slaughter volume has remained at a high level above the seasonal level, and speculative demand such as secondary fattening and cold storage has increased, further over - drafting speculative demand. It is expected that the spot price in April may continue to decline [3] Futures Market - The price of the LH2605 contract closed at 9,965 yuan/ton on March 27. The volume of cold storage in March continued to expand, the slaughter volume increased significantly year - on - year, and enterprises increased their sales, but the weight did not decrease. It is expected that the enterprise sales plan in April will continue to increase, indicating that the inventory volume exceeds expectations, the de - stocking process is falling short of expectations, and the price of piglets has dropped significantly, corresponding to a further decline in the cost of slaughter in September. The bottom of this cycle may gradually shift from a W - shaped to an L - shaped, and the premium of the May contract is expanding. Considering the expected price decline in April - May, the driving force for the premium is strengthening. Pay attention to setting stop - loss and take - profit levels. The short - term support level for the LH2605 contract is 9,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 10,500 yuan/ton [4] 3. Other Data - The basis this week was - 535 yuan/ton, and the LH2605 - LH2607 monthly spread was - 1,215 yuan/ton [9] - The average weight this week was 125.89KG (up from 125.55KG last week). In January, the pork production was 5.36 million tons, a 1.7% month - on - month decrease; in February, the pork import was 52,100 tons, a 22.77% month - on - month decrease [12]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Viewpoints - The overall market for live pig sales is progressing slowly, with a divergence in performance among leading enterprises. Supply is expected to remain loose in the coming six months [4] - The cash flow pressure in the industry is significant, with expectations of deep losses in the second quarter as both live pigs and piglets may face substantial deficits [4][56] - The industry is currently at a cyclical bottom, with cash flow continuously depleting and pessimistic expectations accelerating capacity reduction [82] Summary by Sections 1. Sales Volume - The industry sales progress in February was below expectations, with a completion rate of only 95%. March is expected to see a 25% increase in planned sales compared to February [8] - The actual sales volume for February was 21.75 million heads, a year-on-year increase of 19% but a month-on-month decrease of 22% [16] - The estimated theoretical total output of commodity pigs for the first half of 2026 is expected to increase by 7.84% year-on-year [8] 2. Pig Prices and Profits - February pig prices showed a decline of 24% year-on-year and 12% month-on-month, with average profits turning negative at -99 yuan per head [56] - The price of piglets saw a seasonal increase in February, but the sentiment for replenishment is expected to weaken [59] - The price difference between fattened pigs and market pigs expanded seasonally but remains lower year-on-year [63] 3. Production Capacity - The breeding stock showed a slight increase in February, but the industry is expected to face ongoing cash flow issues leading to accelerated capacity reduction [76] - As of December 2025, the breeding sow inventory was 39.61 million heads, a year-on-year decrease of 2.87%, indicating a persistent overcapacity issue [79] - The industry is advised to optimize capacity by eliminating low-yield sows and enhancing the breeding of high-efficiency pigs [79] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that it is an opportune time to invest in leading breeding enterprises during this low cycle phase [82] - Recommended companies include DeKang Agriculture, Muyuan Foods, and Wen's Foodstuffs, among others [84]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - **Market Review (3.2 - 3.8)**: In the spot market, pig prices were weak. Henan's 20KG piglet price dropped to 29.8 yuan/kg from 30 yuan/kg last week, and the Henan live - pig price fell to 10.48 yuan/kg from 10.98 yuan/kg. The national 50KG binary sow price remained at 1559 yuan/head. The average national slaughter weight increased by 0.19% to 125.4KG. In the futures market, the LH2605 contract price of live - pig futures was weakly volatile, with a closing price of 11160 yuan/ton (down from 11485 yuan/ton last week). The basis of the main contract was - 680 yuan/ton [2]. - **Market Outlook (3.9 - 3.15)**: Spot prices are expected to remain weak. Due to the slow slaughter progress in February, supply is postponed. The passive inventory accumulation is hard to reverse, and the spot price is in the bottom - seeking stage. From the supply perspective, the supply of standard pigs will increase until April 2026. From the demand perspective, the pre - Spring Festival speculative demand was over - estimated, and the post - festival price decline led to more speculative demand, which further overdraws future demand. It is expected that the spot price will start to bottom out in mid - to late March. For the LH2605 contract, there may be short - selling opportunities after a macro - sentiment rebound, with a support level of 10000 yuan/ton and a pressure level of 12000 yuan/ton [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1.行情数据 (Market Data) - Not elaborated in the given content other than the above - mentioned price and weight data 3.2.基差与月差 (Basis and Calendar Spread) - The basis this week was - 680 yuan/ton, and the LH2605 - LH2607 calendar spread was - 1020 yuan/ton [9]. 3.3.供给 (Supply) - The average slaughter weight this week was 125.5KG (up from 125.16KG last week). In December, pork production was 579 million tons, a 2.6% month - on - month decrease, and pork imports were 5.36 million tons, a 7.23% month - on - month decrease [12]. 3.4.价格 (Price) - Not elaborated in the given content other than the above - mentioned price data 3.5.需求 (Demand) - Not elaborated in the given content other than the information about speculative demand and slaughter volume changes

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the live hog price fluctuated and closed down, with the main contract 2605 down 1.08% for the week [8][12]. - After the Spring Festival, the supply and demand of live hogs are both weak in the initial stage. The price fluctuation range may be relatively limited. Considering that the supply will gradually recover in the future, the loose supply and demand will put pressure on the price. It is expected that the live hog price will fluctuate slightly weaker [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Highlights Summary - **Market Review**: The live hog price fluctuated and closed down this week, with the main contract 2605 down 1.08% for the week [8][12]. - **Market Outlook**: After the festival, the slaughter rhythm of the breeding end will gradually resume. The short - term supply pressure is limited. The supply in the next two months is relatively sufficient. Attention should be paid to the second - fattening market. The demand turns from strong to weak after the festival. Overall, the supply and demand are weak at the beginning after the festival, and the live hog price is expected to fluctuate slightly weaker [8]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Markets 3.2.1. Futures Market - **Price Movement**: The futures price fluctuated and closed down this week, with the main contract 2605 down 1.08% for the week [12]. - **Net Position and Warehouse Receipts**: As of February 13, the net short position of the top 20 holders of live hog futures decreased by 884 lots compared with last week, and the number of live hog futures warehouse receipts was 1027, an increase of 300 lots compared with the previous week [18]. - **Contract Spreads**: The spread between lh2605 and lh2607 contracts is - 720, and the spread between lh2605 and lh2609 contracts is - 1640 [23]. 3.2.2. Spot Market - **Base Difference**: The basis of the live hog March contract this week was 1660 yuan/ton, and the basis of the May contract was 900 yuan/ton [28]. - **Live Hog and Piglet Prices**: The national average price of live hogs this week was 11.62 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.88 yuan/kg compared with last week. The average price of 15 - kg weaned piglets was 29.24 yuan/kg, the same as last week [38]. - **Pork and Sows Prices**: On February 12, the national average market price of pork was 18.07 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.41 yuan/kg compared with the previous week. The average market price of binary sows was 32.47 yuan/kg, the same as the previous week [44]. - **Pig - grain Ratio**: As of the week of February 4, 2026, the pig - grain ratio was 5.68, a decrease of 0.08 compared with the previous week [48]. 3.3. Industry Situation 3.3.1. Upstream - **Sow Inventory**: In December 2025, the official inventory of reproductive sows was 39.61 million. According to Mysteel data, in January 2026, the inventory of reproductive sows in 123 large - scale farms increased slightly by 0.02% month - on - month, while that in 85 small and medium - sized farms decreased by 0.36% month - on - month [50][54]. - **Live Hog Inventory**: At the end of the fourth quarter of 2025, the live hog inventory was 429.67 million, a 1.6% decrease month - on - month and a 0.5% increase year - on - year. In January 2026, the inventory of commercial pigs in 123 large - scale farms decreased by 0.70% month - on - month, while that in 85 small and medium - sized farms decreased by 0.02% month - on - month [56][59]. - **Slaughter Volume and Average Weight**: In January 2026, the slaughter volume of commercial pigs in 123 large - scale farms decreased by 3.27% month - on - month, and that in 85 small and medium - sized farms decreased by 0.71% month - on - month. The average slaughter weight of live hogs this week was 122.89 kg, a decrease of 0.37 kg compared with last week [61][64]. 3.3.2. Industry Profit - **Livestock and Poultry Breeding Profits**: As of February 13, the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding was 53.1 yuan/head, a decrease of 38.32 yuan/head; the profit of self - breeding and self - raising live hogs was - 98.32 yuan/head, a decrease of 60.23 yuan/head. The profit of laying hens was - 0.09 yuan/hen, a decrease of 0.11 yuan/hen week - on - week, and the profit of 817 meat - hybrid chickens was - 0.84 yuan/chicken, a decrease of 1.05 yuan/chicken week - on - week [69]. 3.3.3. Other Industry Aspects - **Pork Imports**: In December 2025, China's pork imports were 60,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 33.33%; from January to December, the imports were 980,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.41% [75]. - **Substitute Products**: As of the week of February 13, the price of white - striped chickens was 14 yuan/kg, the same as last week. As of the week of February 12, the average price difference between standard and fat pigs in the country was - 1.12 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.03 yuan/kg compared with last week [79]. - **Feed Situation**: As of February 13, the spot price of soybean meal was 3167.71 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.57 yuan/ton compared with the previous week; the spot price of corn was 2372.16 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.73 yuan/ton compared with the previous week. The closing price of the Dalian Commodity Exchange's live hog feed cost index was 924.22, and the average market price of live hog feed was 2.67 yuan/kg, the same as last week. In December 2025, the monthly feed output was 30.086 million tons, an increase of 307,000 tons month - on - month. In January 2026, the sales of piglet feed decreased by 0.19% month - on - month and increased by 0.92% year - on - year [86][90][96]. - **CPI**: As of January 2026, China's CPI increased by 0.2% year - on - year [102]. 3.3.4. Downstream - **Slaughter Enterprises**: In the 7th week of 2026, the operating rate of slaughter enterprises was 45.97%, an increase of 7.48 percentage points compared with last week and an increase of 25.56 percentage points year - on - year. The fresh - sales ratio of key domestic slaughter enterprises was 88.55%, an increase of 0.37% compared with last week, and the frozen - product storage rate was 17.00%, the same as last week [106]. - **Slaughter Volume and Catering Consumption**: As of December 2025, the slaughter volume of designated live hog slaughtering enterprises was 48.91 million, an increase of 17.52% month - on - month. In December 2025, the national catering revenue was 573.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.19% [112]. 3.3.5. Live Hog - related Stocks - The report shows the trend charts of Muyuan Co., Ltd. and Wens Co., Ltd., but no specific analysis of the stocks is provided [114][116]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core View of the Report - The current pig market shows a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. Short - term market sentiment fluctuations lead to wide price swings, and prices still face downward pressure in the medium to long term [8][78]. - The inventory of breeding sows has reached a new low, but it is still 1.6% higher than the reasonable industry level. The market expects the pace of capacity reduction to accelerate [8][78]. - The core contradiction in the pig market is that the reduction of effective pig production capacity is weaker than the decline in the number of breeding sows. The effect of capacity reduction cannot be realized in the short term, and the slaughter volume remains high. The release of previously back - pressured pigs in late January will increase short - term supply pressure [8][78]. - The boosting effect on the demand side is lagging. Due to the late Spring Festival this year, pre - festival stocking has not fully started, and downstream procurement willingness will decline significantly after the festival, restricting the upward movement of pig prices [8][78]. - In the short term, positive market sentiment will drive a slight recovery in pig prices, but the fundamental supply - demand pattern has not changed substantially, and the medium - to - long - term upward space for pig prices may be limited, with a risk of subsequent decline [8][78]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Market Review 3.1.1. Futures Price - Concerns about the continued pressure of pig slaughter in the first half of the year led to concentrated selling in the futures market. The main LH2603 contract of live hog futures closed at 11,565 yuan/ton last Friday, up 0.26% [5][14]. 3.1.2. Spot Price - Last week, the pig price first rose and then fell, with the weekly average price moving up. The national average live hog slaughter price was 12.87 yuan/kg, a 1.42% increase from the previous week [7][18]. - The average weekly price of 7kg piglets was 343.33 yuan/head, a 11.09% increase from the previous week and a 28.94% decrease year - on - year. The increase was due to farmers' pre - festival early replenishment to control costs, rigid replenishment by group farms, and capacity reduction in some regions [21]. - The average price of 50kg binary sows was 1431 yuan/head, with low replenishment enthusiasm among reserve farmers and a light trading atmosphere [24]. - The price of culled sows increased with the recovery of pig prices. The national average price was 9.77 yuan/kg, a 2.84% increase from the previous week and a 12.38% decrease year - on - year. Farmers were reluctant to cull sows [27]. 3.1.3. Spread Situation - Since January, the basis between live hog futures and spot has continued to widen. As of last Friday, the basis was 1575 yuan/ton. The spot price was supported by the pre - Spring Festival consumption peak, while the futures 03 contract faced a seasonal consumption off - season after the Spring Festival, with expected increased slaughter and a supply - demand pattern that could suppress prices [30]. - The national standard - fat spread was - 0.75 yuan/kg last week, a 0.11 yuan/kg increase from the previous week. Cold weather increased the consumption of large pigs and external shipments, supporting the price of fat pigs, while the standard pig market was weak during the peak season [33]. 3.2. Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1. Supply Side - **Breeding Sow Inventory**: At the end of 2025, the inventory of breeding sows was 39.61 million, a 2.9% decrease from the previous month, the lowest in the past five years but still 101.6% of the normal level. In December 2025, the inventory of breeding sows in sample large - scale farms was 5.0202 million, a 0.18% decrease from the previous month and a 0.47% decrease year - on - year; in small and medium - sized farms, it was 167,660, a 1.19% decrease from the previous month and a 1.54% decrease year - on - year [37][40]. - **Live Hog Inventory**: At the end of 2025, the national live hog inventory was 429.67 million, a 0.5% increase from the end of 2024. In December 2025, the inventory of 7 - 49kg piglets accounted for 32.97%, 50 - 89kg pigs accounted for 29.03%, 90 - 140kg pigs accounted for 36.50%, and pigs over 140kg accounted for 1.51%, with month - on - month changes of 0.00%, - 0.07%, - 0.12%, and 4.46% respectively [47]. - **Pork Production**: Since 2024, supported by industrial policies and the development of large - scale farming, pork production has been on the rise. In 2024, it was 57.06 million tons, and in 2025, it increased to 59.38 million tons, a 4.1% increase and a record high [51]. - **Sow Culling**: In December 2025, due to sporadic pig diseases and the optimization of sow production capacity, the culling volume of breeding sows in large - scale farms was 115,814, a 3.06% increase from the previous month and an 18.80% increase year - on - year; in small and medium - sized farms, it was 11,518, a 0.75% decrease from the previous month and a 5.47% increase year - on - year [54]. - **Live Hog Slaughter**: In December 2025, the slaughter rhythm of breeding enterprises accelerated. The slaughter volume of commercial pigs in large - scale farms was 11.7829 million, a 3.68% increase from the previous month and a 6.64% increase year - on - year; in small and medium - sized farms, it was 548,000, a 6.39% increase from the previous month and a 13.67% increase year - on - year. As of January 20, 2026, the overall slaughter progress of sample enterprises was 64.94%, slower than expected [59][63]. 3.2.2. Demand Side - **Slaughtering Enterprise Operating Rate**: Last week, the operating rate of slaughtering enterprises was 35.18%, a 0.73% decrease from the previous week and an 8.19% decrease year - on - year. The increase in procurement costs and bad weather led to the decline [67]. - **Frozen Product Storage Rate and Fresh Sales Rate**: Last week, the fresh sales rate of domestic slaughtering enterprises was 87.43%, a 0.18% decrease from the previous week; the frozen product storage rate was 17.3%, a 0.18% decrease from the previous week. The market did not have inventory backlogs, and the supply - demand rhythm was relatively stable [71]. 3.2.3. Cost - Profit Situation - Last week, the domestic pig - breeding industry turned profitable, and the pressure on farmers was relieved. The average profit per head in the self - breeding and self - raising model was 63.5 yuan, and in the model of purchasing piglets, it was 37.85 yuan [77]. 3.3. Market Outlook - The short - term market sentiment will drive a slight recovery in pig prices, but the medium - to - long - term upward space is limited, and there is a risk of subsequent decline [8][78]. 3.4. Operation Strategy - **Single - side Trading**: Temporarily wait and see in the short term, and adopt a short - selling strategy on rallies in the medium term [10][79]. - **Arbitrage**: Near - month contracts may continue to fluctuate at the bottom due to the loose supply pattern, while far - month contracts may get stronger support as the pressure from the current spot market is limited [10][80]. - **Options**: No operation suggestions [10][80].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week (1.12 - 1.18), the spot market for live pigs showed a strong - running trend, with prices of 20KG piglets in Henan at 23.2 yuan/kg, live pigs in Henan at 13.18 yuan/kg, and 50KG binary sows nationwide at 1559 yuan/head. The supply was tight due to the non -放量 of group enterprises and strong reluctance to sell among northern and southern retail farmers. The demand side saw stable slaughter volume despite losses during the peak slaughter season. The average national slaughter weight was 124.58KG, a 0.16% increase from last week. In the futures market, live pig futures prices fluctuated strongly, with the LH2603 contract closing at 11980 yuan/ton, and the basis at 1080 yuan/ton [1]. - Next week (1.19 - 1.25), the spot price of live pigs will fluctuate and adjust. Since late December, the enthusiasm for slaughter among enterprises and the social side has been insufficient, and secondary fattening has re - entered the market, starting social inventory accumulation. However, the downstream white - strip market is not prosperous during the peak season, and the slaughter end is in the red. From the supply perspective, standard pig supply will continue to increase until April 2026, but due to strong market expectations and multiple rounds of inventory accumulation sentiment, the inventory supply pressure has not been effectively released. From the demand perspective, the late Spring Festival and strong pre - holiday peak - season expectations have led to pre - emptive speculative demand in January. Overall, inventory accumulation continues in mid - and early January, and the weight - reduction plan is postponed, indicating that the social side has not relieved the pressure, and a stage of simultaneous increase in supply and demand is awaited [2]. - In the futures market, the price of the LH2603 contract closed at 11980 yuan/ton on January 16. In mid - and early January, the enterprise slaughter progress was slow, the weight increased, secondary fattening entered the market, and inventory accumulation restarted. The downstream losses during the peak season significantly inhibited the increase in slaughter volume. The weight - reduction plan before the Spring Festival has not been implemented, and the pressure is postponed. The stage of simultaneous increase in supply and demand is approaching. Wait for the spot market on the Laba Festival for confirmation. If the weight reduction at the end of the month fails to meet expectations, pay attention to the trading of post - holiday off - season expectations and set stop - loss and take - profit points. The short - term support level for the LH2603 contract is 11000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 12500 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - This week's basis was 1080 yuan/ton, and the LH2603 - LH2605 monthly spread was - 175 yuan/ton [7]. 3.2 Supply - This week's average weight was 124.58KG (last week: 124.38KG). In November, pork production was 546 million tons, a 2.6% month - on - month decrease; pork imports were 6.05 million tons, a 14.16% month - on - month decrease [10]. 3.3 Demand No specific demand - related summary content other than the description in the market outlook section.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report Fundamental view - After the holiday, both the slaughter volume of large - scale enterprises and the slaughter volume decreased, and the spot price of live pigs rose slightly. However, the overall supply pressure remains high, the progress of sows' capacity reduction is slow, and the demand is limited. The pattern of weak supply and demand remains unchanged, and the pig price is expected to continue to adjust weakly [10][23]. - The inventory of reproductive sows is the core indicator of pig production capacity. In October 2025, it dropped to 39.9 million, falling below 40 million again after 17 months, indicating initial results in capacity regulation. But it is still in the green area of capacity regulation, not a sign of a new pig - price surge cycle. Due to improved production efficiency, the capacity reduction cycle is lengthened. The pig slaughter volume is expected to increase until May 2026, and the lowest price in this cycle is predicted to be in Q1 2026. The weak spot market and reduced secondary fattening have weakened support for pig prices [10]. Strategy view and outlook - The industry is at a crucial stage of short - term price pressure and long - term capacity clearance. The capacity reduction progress is slow, and the supply of commercial pigs is expected to increase until the first half of 2026. Domestic pork consumption is declining, and the pattern of increasing supply and weak demand is hard to change in the short term. There may be a "concentrated increase" in supply before the Spring Festival, and the spot price will remain low. Attention should be paid to factors such as the inventory of reproductive sows, the slaughter rhythm, and secondary fattening scale [12]. - For the main contract, the resistance level is 12000 - 12300. In terms of options, one can buy call options of far - month contracts with a light position [13]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Viewpoint and Strategy - **Fundamental view**: Spot price rose slightly after the holiday, but supply pressure remains high and demand is limited; capacity regulation has achieved initial results, but the capacity reduction cycle is long. Pig slaughter volume will increase until May 2026, and the lowest price in this cycle may be in Q1 2026 [10]. - **Strategy view**: The main contract resistance level is 12000 - 12300, and one can buy call options of far - month contracts with a light position [13]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Spot price**: The national average live - pig slaughter price was 12.41 yuan/kg, up 0.15 yuan/kg from last week, a week - on - week increase of 1.22% and a year - on - year decrease of 22.58%. The price is expected to continue weak adjustment [23]. - **Futures - spot basis**: No specific analysis provided. - **Futures spread**: No specific analysis provided. - **Standard - fat price**: The standard - fat price spread narrowed by 0.18 yuan/kg to - 0.61 yuan/kg this week [38]. - **Prices of piglets and binary sows**: The weekly average price of 7 - kg piglets was 253.33 yuan/head, up 21.66 yuan/head from last week, a week - on - week increase of 9.35% and a year - on - year decrease of 37.41%. The price may rise to 400 yuan/head in the middle and late first quarter [42]. - **Price of culled sows**: The price of culled sows adjusted narrowly with the live - pig price. It may fluctuate next week [45]. 3.3 Capacity - **Inventory of reproductive sows**: In October 2025, it was 39.9 million, down 1.1% month - on - month, falling below 40 million again after 17 months. In December, the inventory continued to decline slowly, and it may decline slightly in January [50][54]. - **Culling volume of reproductive sows**: In December, the culling volume of 123 large - scale farms was 115,814, a month - on - month increase of 3.06% and a year - on - year increase of 18.80%. The culling volume of 85 small and medium - sized farms decreased slightly. It is expected to increase in January [57]. 3.4 Supply Side - **Inventory of commercial pigs**: In December, the inventory of 123 large - scale farms was 36.9216 million, down 0.23% month - on - month and up 4.72% year - on - year; that of 85 small and medium - sized farms was 1.5558 million, down 0.09% month - on - month and up 8.17% year - on - year. It is expected to increase in January [63]. - **Slaughter volume of commercial pigs**: In November, the slaughter volume of 123 large - scale farms was 11.3649 million, down 0.65% month - on - month and up 15.59% year - on - year; that of 85 small and medium - sized farms was 0.5151 million, down 2.03% month - on - month and up 29.75% year - on - year. The slaughter volume may increase in December [66]. - **Average slaughter weight of commercial pigs**: The average slaughter weight adjusted narrowly and the weekly center of gravity moved down slightly [72]. 3.5 Demand Side - **Slaughter volume of live pigs**: In December 2025, as the curing season approached, the slaughter volume of slaughterhouses increased by about 20% [77]. - **Cold storage rate of slaughterhouses**: After the holiday, the market demand declined, and the cold storage rate continued to decline as slaughterhouses sold frozen meat [82]. - **Operating rate and fresh - meat sales rate of slaughterhouses**: After the New Year's Day holiday, the operating rate decreased to 36.63%, down 3.71 percentage points from last week and up 0.68 percentage points year - on - year. It is expected to run weakly next week [85]. - **Prices of substitutes**: No specific analysis provided. 3.6 Cost and Profit - **Profit of pig farming and slaughtering**: At the end of December, the self - breeding and self - raising model turned profitable, with a profit of 86 yuan/head. This week, the overall loss of the pig - farming industry decreased. The self - breeding and self - raising model had a profit of 59.26 yuan/head, and the model of purchasing piglets still had a loss of 74.89 yuan/head, but the loss narrowed [99]. - **Slaughter gross profit and feed - meat ratio**: No specific analysis provided. - **Pig - grain ratio**: This week, the pig - grain ratio was 5.37, up 1.14% week - on - week. It is expected to be stable with a slight decline next week [107].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [3] Core Views - The planting industry is focusing on enhancing crop yields and ensuring food security through advanced agricultural technologies and policies [1][12] - The pig farming sector is currently experiencing significant losses, with average losses per head reaching 244.70 yuan for self-bred pigs and 375.29 yuan for purchased piglets, indicating a need for capacity reduction [2][13] - The report anticipates a gradual recovery in pig prices due to government policies aimed at reducing breeding sow numbers and improving overall industry efficiency [5][13] Summary by Sections Planting Industry - The Ministry of Agriculture emphasized the importance of increasing crop yields and implementing comprehensive solutions tailored to specific regions and crops [1][12] - The report highlights the potential for genetically modified crops to significantly enhance yields and self-sufficiency in key varieties [1][12] - Recommended stocks in the planting sector include Beidahuang and Suqian Agricultural Development, with a focus on leading seed companies like Dabeinong and Longping High-Tech [1][12] Pig Farming - The average price of live pigs is reported at 11.14 yuan/kg, with a week-on-week decrease of 4.95%, reflecting an oversupply in the market [2][13] - The industry is facing deep losses, prompting a proactive reduction in production capacity, with a target to decrease the breeding sow population by approximately 1 million [5][13] - Recommended stocks in the pig farming sector include Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff, and other companies with strong financial positions and cost improvements [5][13] Key Agricultural Products - Corn: The average price is 2276.08 yuan/ton, down 1.61% week-on-week [26] - Wheat: The average price is 2450.11 yuan/ton, up 0.30% week-on-week [29] - Soybeans: The average price is 3988.53 yuan/ton, with a slight increase of 0.03% [41] - Cotton: The average price is 14580 yuan/ton, down 0.98% week-on-week [45] Feed and Vitamin Prices - The average price of pig feed is 2.64 yuan/kg, down 0.75% week-on-week [52] - Vitamin E is priced at 43.10 yuan/kg, reflecting a significant decrease of 12.58% [52]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of live pigs dropped significantly, with the main contract 2601 falling 3.87% weekly. Considering the theoretical slaughter pressure in the near - term based on the inventory data of newborn piglets and breeding sows, and the active slaughter of large - scale farms, the supply is under pressure. The secondary fattening entry showed signs of cooling. Although the terminal demand is expected to improve with the temperature drop, the current demand is lower than expected. Overall, due to the cooling of secondary fattening entry and the loose supply - demand situation, it is expected that the price of live pigs will continue to be weak. It is recommended to conduct short - side trading operations on the live pig 2601 contract [6]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - The price of live pigs dropped significantly, with the main contract 2601 falling 3.87% weekly. The supply is under pressure due to theoretical slaughter pressure and active slaughter by large - scale farms. Secondary fattening entry supported the spot price in the early part of the month but showed signs of weakening. The terminal demand is expected to improve but is currently lower than expected. It is expected that the price of live pigs will continue to be weak, and short - side trading operations on the live pig 2601 contract are recommended [6]. 3.2 Futures Market - **Price Movement**: The futures price dropped this week, with the main contract 2601 falling 3.87% weekly [8][11]. - **Net Position and Warehouse Receipts**: As of October 17, the net short position of the top 20 holders in live pig futures was 30,554 lots, a decrease of 2,535 lots from last week. The number of futures warehouse receipts was 111, an increase of 111 from the previous week [17]. - **Contract Spreads**: The spread between lh2601 and lh2603 contracts was 390, and the spread between lh2601 and lh2605 contracts was - 250 [22]. 3.3 Spot Market - **Base Difference**: This week, the base difference of the live pig November contract was 150 yuan/ton, and the base difference of the January contract was - 470 yuan/ton [27]. - **Price of Live Pigs and Piglets**: The average national live pig market price was 11.27 yuan/kg this week, a decrease of 0.21 yuan/kg from last week. The average price of 15 - kg weaned piglets was 22.79 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.18 yuan/kg from last week [36]. - **Pork and Breeding Sow Prices**: As of the week of October 9, the national pork market price was 23.89 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.28 yuan/kg from the previous week. The average market price of binary sows last week was 32.50 yuan/kg, remaining the same as the previous week [40]. - **Pig - to - Grain Ratio**: As of the week of October 8, 2025, the pig - to - grain ratio was 5.46, a decrease of 0.22 from the previous week [44]. 3.4 Upstream Situation - **Breeding Sow Inventory**: In late August 2025, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.38 million heads, a decrease of 40,000 heads month - on - month, an increase of 0.05% year - on - year, reaching 103.5% of the normal inventory. In September, according to Mysteel data, the inventory of breeding sows in 123 large - scale farms decreased slightly by 0.28% month - on - month and increased by 1.09% year - on - year, while in 85 small and medium - sized farms, it decreased by 1.50% month - on - month and increased by 2.10% year - on - year [49]. - **Live Pig Inventory**: In Q2 2023, the live pig inventory was 424.47 million heads, an increase of 7.16 million heads from the end of the previous quarter and an increase of 9.14 million heads year - on - year. In September, according to Mysteel data, the live pig inventory in 123 large - scale farms increased by 1.44% month - on - month and 5.29% year - on - year, and in 85 small and medium - sized farms, it increased by 2.93% month - on - month and 6.29% year - on - year [53]. - **Slaughter Volume and Average Weight**: In September, according to Mysteel data, the slaughter volume of 123 large - scale farms decreased by 4.54% month - on - month and increased by 23.49% year - on - year, while in 85 small and medium - sized farms, it increased by 1.39% month - on - month and 33.52% year - on - year. The average slaughter weight of national outer - ternary live pigs this week was 123.43 kg, a decrease of 0.05 kg from last week, a month - on - month increase of 0.05%, and a year - on - year decrease of 0.29% [58]. 3.5 Industry Situation - **Breeding Profits**: As of October 17, the breeding profit of purchased piglets reported a loss of 375.29 yuan/head, with the loss expanding by 75.25 yuan/head; the breeding profit of self - bred and self - raised live pigs was a loss of 244.7 yuan/head, a decrease of 92.55 yuan/head month - on - month. The egg - laying hen breeding profit was - 0.46 yuan/head, a decrease of 0.06 yuan/head week - on - week, and the 817 meat - hybrid chicken breeding profit was 1.40 yuan/head [63]. - **Pork Imports**: In August 2025, China's pork imports were 80,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.11%. From January to August, the cumulative pork imports were 710,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.43% [68]. - **Substitute Products**: The price of white - striped chickens dropped, and the spread between standard and fat pigs widened [69]. - **Feed Situation**: As of October 17, the spot price of soybean meal was 2993.43 yuan/ton, a decrease of 57.14 yuan/ton from the previous week; the corn price was 2269.22 yuan/ton, a decrease of 34.9 yuan/ton from the previous week. The closing price of the Dalian Commodity Exchange pig feed cost index was 869.88, a decrease of 1.23% from last week, and the price of finishing pig compound feed was 3.34 yuan/kg, remaining the same as last week. As of August 2025, the monthly feed output was 29.272 million tons, an increase of 999,000 tons month - on - month. In September 2025, the sales of piglet feed decreased by 0.01% month - on - month and increased by 71.08% year - on - year [75][80][85]. - **CPI**: As of September 2025, China's CPI decreased by 0.3% year - on - year [89]. 3.6 Downstream Situation - **Slaughter and Consumption**: In the 42nd week, the slaughter enterprise's开工 rate was 32.38%, a decrease of 2.15 percentage points from last week and an increase of 5.07 percentage points year - on - year, with the weekly开工 rate fluctuating between 30.95% and 34.44%. The frozen product storage capacity rate was 17.84%, an increase of 0.09% from last week. As of August 2025, the slaughter volume of designated pig slaughtering enterprises was 33.5 million heads, an increase of 5.81% from the previous month. In August 2025, the national catering revenue was 449.57 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.1% [92][97]. 3.7 Live Pig Stocks - The report presented the trend charts of Muyuan Co., Ltd. and Wens Co., Ltd. [98][101]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - The spot price of live pigs is weakly operating, and the futures price is also in a weak state. The 9 - month supply and demand of live pigs both increase, but due to the inventory cycle turning from inventory accumulation to de - stocking and the production capacity cycle entering the incremental release stage, the probability of a weak peak season before the double festivals increases, and the spot price is still in the process of finding the bottom [2][3] - The LH2511 contract in the futures market is currently in a situation of high - capacity realization, high inventory, and high premium. It is temporarily anchored at the self - breeding and self - raising cost of 12,000 yuan/ton. Consider shorting the valuation of the May contract, and pay attention to stop - profit and stop - loss [4] Group 3: Summary by Directory This Week's Market Review (9.5 - 9.21) - **Spot Market**: The price of live pigs is weakly operating. The price of 20KG piglets in Henan is 27.4 yuan/kg, the price of live pigs in Henan is 13.48 yuan/kg, and the price of 50KG binary sows nationwide is 1,595 yuan/head, all remaining unchanged from last week. The supply is still loose, and the demand is weak. The average slaughter weight nationwide is 124.72KG, with a month - on - month increase of 0.24% [2] - **Futures Market**: The price of the live - pig futures LH2511 contract is weakly operating. The highest price is 13,335 yuan/ton, the lowest price is 12,770 yuan/ton, and the closing price is 12,825 yuan/ton, down from 13,255 yuan/ton last week. The basis of the LH2511 contract is 105 yuan/ton, down from 225 yuan/ton last week [2] Next Week's Market Outlook (9.22 - 9.28) - **Spot Market**: The spot price of live pigs is expected to operate weakly. In September, the supply pressure is large, and the demand has a seasonal increase. The inventory cycle is changing from inventory accumulation to de - stocking, and the production capacity cycle is in the incremental release stage, so the probability of a weak peak season before the double festivals increases [3] - **Futures Market**: The LH2511 contract is currently facing high - capacity realization, high inventory, and high premium. It is temporarily anchored at 12,000 yuan/ton. The price of piglets is expected to continue to decline, and it is considered to short the valuation of the May contract. The short - term support level of the LH2511 contract is 12,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 13,500 yuan/ton [4] Key Data - **Basis and Monthly Spread**: This week's basis is 105 yuan/ton, and the LH2511 - LH2601 monthly spread is - 525 yuan/ton [9] - **Production and Import**: In July, the pork output is 5.011 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 5.4%; the pork import is 88,300 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.18% [12]