Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply side in August shows an increase in the slaughter plan of the breeding end compared to the previous month, resulting in a relatively loose market supply. However, as prices fall, some farms may be inclined to hold out for higher prices, and the entry of second - round fattening has increased, which will slow down the slaughter rhythm. Additionally, the current price difference between fat and standard pigs has widened, providing conditions for later pressure on stocks [6]. - On the demand side, the state will conduct central pork reserve purchases in the near future, boosting market confidence. With sufficient pig supply and improved demand in some areas, the slaughterhouse operating rate has moderately rebounded. It is expected that demand will improve with the start of school and subsequent double - festival stocking [6]. - Overall, although the slaughter pressure in August restrains the performance of spot prices, the state's reserve purchases boost market confidence, and the upcoming start of school brings expectations of improved demand. It is expected that the short - term hog futures price will fluctuate slightly stronger within a range. It is recommended to hold long positions lightly, set stop - losses, and take profits opportunistically [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The hog price declined, with the main contract 2511 falling 0.75% on a weekly basis [6][10]. - **Market Outlook**: Supply is relatively loose in August, but factors such as farms' price - holding intentions, increased second - round fattening, and a widened fat - standard price difference will affect the supply rhythm. Demand is expected to improve due to state reserve purchases, the start of school, and double - festival stocking. Short - term futures prices are expected to fluctuate slightly stronger within a range [6]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Market**: The futures price declined this week, with the main contract 2511 down 0.75% week - on - week. As of August 22, the net short position of the top 20 holders decreased by 1654 lots compared to last week, and the number of futures warrants was 430, unchanged from last week [10][16]. - **Spot Market**: - The basis of the September contract was - 160 yuan/ton, and that of the November contract was - 240 yuan/ton this week [20]. - The national average hog price was 13.82 yuan/kg, up 0.02 yuan/kg from last week but down 2.88% from last month. The average price of 15 - kg weaned piglets was 28.72 yuan/kg, down 2.35 yuan from last week and 15.18% from the same period last month [27]. - The national average pork price was 25.16 yuan/kg in the week of August 7, down 0.05 yuan/kg from the previous week. The average market price of binary sows was 32.52 yuan/kg, down 0.01 yuan/kg from the previous week [31]. - As of August 13, the hog - grain ratio was 5.94, down 0.08 from the previous week, remaining below 6:1 [36]. 3.3. Industry Situation - **Upstream**: - In June 2025, the inventory of breeding sows was 40430000 heads, a month - on - month increase of 10000 heads and a year - on - year increase of 0.12%, reaching 103.7% of the normal inventory. According to Mysteel data, in July, the inventory of breeding sows in 123 large - scale farms increased slightly by 0.01% month - on - month and 3.03% year - on - year, while that in 85 small and medium - sized farms decreased slightly by 0.17% month - on - month but increased 6.67% year - on - year [41]. - In the second quarter, the hog inventory increased year - on - year, and in July, it increased month - on - month according to institutional data. In July, the inventory of commercial hogs in 123 large - scale farms increased by 1.11% month - on - month and 5.28% year - on - year, and that in 85 small and medium - sized farms increased by 2.49% month - on - month and 7.23% year - on - year [44]. - In July, the slaughter volume decreased month - on - month, and the average slaughter weight increased. The slaughter volume of commercial hogs in 123 large - scale farms was 10436200 heads, a month - on - month decrease of 3.08% but a year - on - year increase of 18.60%. The slaughter volume of 85 small and medium - sized farms was 480600 heads, a month - on - month decrease of 1.46% but a year - on - year increase of 57.67%. The average slaughter weight of national outer - ternary hogs this week was 123.38 kg, an increase of 0.15 kg from last week [49]. - **Industry Profit**: - As of August 22, the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding reported a loss of 151.8 yuan/head, with the loss decreasing by 5.25 yuan/head. The profit of self - breeding and self - raising hogs was 33.95 yuan/head, a month - on - month increase of 5.1 yuan/head. The profit of laying hens was - 0.15 yuan/head, with the weekly loss decreasing by 0.11 yuan/head, and the profit of 817 meat - hybrid chickens was 1.01 yuan/head [54]. - **Domestic Situation**: In July, China's pork imports were 90000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.6%. From January to July, the cumulative pork imports were 630000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.1% [59]. - **Substitute Situation**: As of the week of August 22, the price of white - striped chickens was 14.4 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.3 yuan/kg from last week. As of the week of August 21, the average price difference between standard and fat hogs was - 0.48 yuan/kg, the same as last week [64]. - **Feed Situation**: - As of August 22, the spot price of soybean meal was 3084.29 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12.57 yuan/ton from the previous week, and the price of corn was 2373.53 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20.59 yuan/ton from the previous week [69]. - As of August 22, the closing price of the Dalian Commodity Exchange hog feed cost index was 906.49, a decrease of 2.19% from last week, and the price of finishing hog compound feed was 3.34 yuan/kg, unchanged from last week [72]. - As of July 2025, the monthly feed production was 2827.3 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 110.4 tons [77]. - **CPI**: As of July 2025, China's CPI increased by 0.0% year - on - year [81]. - **Downstream**: - In the 34th week, the operating rate of slaughtering enterprises was 28.71%, an increase of 0.92 percentage points from last week, and the domestic frozen product storage rate was 17.56%, a slight increase of 0.04 percentage points from last week [84]. - As of June 2025, the slaughter volume of designated hog slaughtering enterprises was 30060000 heads, a month - on - month decrease of 6.53%. In July 2025, the national catering revenue was 450400000000 yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.1% [89]. - **Hog - related Stocks**: The report mentions the stock trends of Muyuan Co., Ltd. and Wens Co., Ltd., but no specific data analysis is provided [90].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term: Under the guidance of the Ministry of Agriculture for orderly slaughter, some enterprises' early slaughter and the release of previously second - fattened pigs increase supply pressure. However, the considerable spread between standard and fat pigs and farmers' reluctance to sell support the bottom of pig prices [4]. - Medium - term: Piglets showed an increasing trend from January to June, so the second half of 2025 is expected to see an increase in the pig market, and over - optimism should be avoided [4]. - Long - term: The "anti - involution" process takes time. If capacity control measures are implemented, the number of pig slaughter is expected to decline in about ten months, which may push up far - month pig prices [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Spot Performance - Pig prices: The national average pig price decreased by 0.94 yuan to 14.14 yuan/kg this month. Prices in various regions also declined [3][9]. - Sow prices: The average spot price of culled sows decreased by 0.78 yuan to 10.29 yuan/kg, and the average price of 50kg binary sows decreased by 0.95 yuan to 1,641.3 yuan/head [3][11]. - Piglet prices: The average price of 7kg piglets remained stable at 444.76 yuan/head, while the average price of 15kg piglets decreased by 48.27 yuan to 468.55 yuan/head [3][13]. 3.2 Key Data - Spot prices: Most prices showed changes, such as the national average price of 15kg piglets decreasing by 0.27 yuan to 36.37 yuan/kg [7]. - Short - term supply: The national pig inventory increased by 7160 thousand heads to 424470 thousand heads, and the average slaughter weight increased by 0.18 kg to 123.67 kg [7]. - Medium - term supply: The number of piglet births increased by 10.63 thousand heads to 554.02 thousand heads, and the survival rate remained at 92.7% [7]. - Long - term supply: The inventory of breeding sows increased by 10 thousand heads to 40430 thousand heads, and the culling volume of breeding sows increased by 3296 heads to 109413 heads [7]. - Demand side: The national pig slaughter rate increased by 0.05% to 26.8%, and the Shanghai Xijiao white - striped meat arrival volume decreased by 1100 heads to 5600 heads [7]. - Policy: The national pig - grain ratio decreased by 0.03 to 5.8 [7]. - Cost: The total cost of purchasing piglets increased by 16.32 yuan to 1719.30 yuan/head, and the self - breeding cost decreased by 7.68 yuan to 1585.76 yuan/head [7]. - Profit: The self - breeding profit increased by 0.57 yuan to 29.21 yuan/head, and the profit of purchasing piglets decreased by 0.43 yuan to - 193.12 yuan/head [7]. 3.3 Short - term Supply - Inventory and slaughter: The official inventory in June was 424470 thousand heads, and the planned slaughter of sample enterprises in July increased. The average slaughter weight increased, and the post - slaughter weight of white - striped pigs decreased [23]. - Speculation: The spread between standard and fat pigs widened, and the proportion of large pigs remained at a high level [25]. 3.4 Medium - term Supply - Piglets: In June, the piglet survival rate remained stable, the number of piglet births increased, and the piglet feed sales increased slightly. The pig supply in Q4 2025 is expected to be high [30]. 3.5 Long - term Supply - Breeding sows: In June, the inventory of breeding sows increased, the culling volume increased slightly, and the average number of healthy piglets per litter decreased slightly [32]. 3.6 Demand - Slaughter and sales: Affected by the off - season, demand was weak. The slaughter rate increased slightly, the fresh - sales rate decreased, the daily slaughter volume decreased, and the slaughter profit increased [37]. 3.7 Cost Analysis - Feed: The corn price decreased, and the soybean meal price increased [44]. - Pigs: The cost of purchasing piglets and self - breeding both decreased [46]. 3.8 Breeding Profit - Pigs: The self - breeding profit decreased, and the profit of purchasing piglets decreased further [48]. 3.9 Price Ratio - The national pig - grain ratio decreased, and the piglet feed - to - meat ratio remained high [50].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - This week (7.14 - 7.20), the spot market for live pigs showed weak performance. The price of 20KG piglets in Henan remained at 37.7 yuan/kg, the live pig price in Henan dropped from 14.83 yuan/kg last week to 14.43 yuan/kg, and the price of 50KG binary sows nationwide rose from 1623 yuan/head to 1628 yuan/head. The supply side saw a slight increase from large - scale farms and some smallholders selling their pigs as the market conditions were right. The demand side remained low, and the high temperature restricted the increase in demand. The average slaughter weight nationwide increased by 0.02% week - on - week to 124.94KG. In the futures market, the live pig futures price was also weak. The LH2509 contract had a high of 14360 yuan/ton, a low of 13905 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 14135 yuan/ton (down from 14345 yuan/ton last week). The basis of the LH2509 contract decreased from 485 yuan/ton last week to 295 yuan/ton [2]. - Next week (7.21 - 7.27), the spot price of live pigs is expected to oscillate weakly. During the off - season, large - scale farms' adjustment of slaughter volume has a greater impact on prices, but this influence will decline in the peak season. It is expected that contradictions will be released in August. From the supply perspective, there was continuous restocking from February to May and bottom - fishing by secondary fattening in June, resulting in a low vacancy rate of pigsties and a relatively high inventory accumulation. The slaughter progress of large - scale farms was slow in July, and there is still pressure in the future. From the demand perspective, the actual demand in July was significantly weaker than in June, and the high - temperature months of July and August will suppress demand. Although the secondary fattening sales policy has tightened and there is passive freezing of pork into storage, the government's purchase and storage policy may provide support. There were still a small number of secondary fattening entries in July, and the idle space in pigsties is decreasing. Attention should be paid to the release of pressure in the peak season [3]. - For the futures market, the LH2509 contract closed at 14135 yuan/ton on July 18. The spot price weakened continuously this week, and the slaughter digestion capacity decreased, causing a large decline in the September contract. However, there is an expectation of government purchase and storage, which may drive the spot price up at the end and beginning of the month, leading to a rebound in the futures market. The near - term policy and reality interact, and the September contract is in the position - reducing stage, with increased volatility. As the peak season for piglet purchases ends, and both the spot performance and feed data confirm future supply increases, the 2026 contracts will enter the stage of locking in profits by the industry. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 14500 yuan/ton [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review (7.14 - 7.20) - **Spot Market**: In Henan, the price of 20KG piglets remained unchanged at 37.7 yuan/kg, the live pig price dropped from 14.83 yuan/kg to 14.43 yuan/kg, and the price of 50KG binary sows nationwide rose from 1623 yuan/head to 1628 yuan/head. The supply side had a slight increase from large - scale farms and some smallholders selling their pigs, while the demand side was restricted by high temperatures. The average slaughter weight nationwide increased by 0.02% week - on - week to 124.94KG [2]. - **Futures Market**: The LH2509 contract had a high of 14360 yuan/ton, a low of 13905 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 14135 yuan/ton (down from 14345 yuan/ton last week). The basis of the LH2509 contract decreased from 485 yuan/ton last week to 295 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Market Outlook (7.21 - 7.27) - **Spot Market**: The spot price of live pigs is expected to oscillate weakly. The influence of large - scale farms on prices will decline in the peak season. Supply pressure remains due to previous restocking, and demand will be suppressed by high temperatures. The government's purchase and storage policy may provide support, and there were still some secondary fattening entries in July [3]. - **Futures Market**: The LH2509 contract closed at 14135 yuan/ton on July 18. The September contract may rebound due to the expectation of government purchase and storage, but it is in the position - reducing stage with increased volatility. The 2026 contracts will enter the stage of locking in profits by the industry. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 14500 yuan/ton [4]. 3.3 Other Data - **Basis and Spread**: This week, the basis was 295 yuan/ton, and the LH2509 - LH2511 spread was 500 yuan/ton [9]. - **Supply Data**: The average weight this week was 124.91KG (unchanged from last week). In May, the pork production was 549.6 tons, a 4.3% month - on - month increase, and the pork import was 9.37 million tons, a 16.17% month - on - month increase [12].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report The supply in the pig market is sufficient, with an increase in the number of pigs for sale from the breeding side. The demand has entered the off - season due to rising temperatures, and the slaughtering enterprises' operation rate has room to decline seasonally. Overall, the pig market has no obvious boost and is expected to maintain a weak trend [2]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Pig Futures and Spot Prices - Futures: LH2507 closed at 13090, down 115 or - 0.9%; LH2509 (the main contract) closed at 13460, down 145 or - 1.1%; LH2511 closed at 13335, down 75 or - 0.6% [2][4]. - Spot: The national average commodity pig slaughter price was 14.31 yuan/kg, down 0.08 yuan or - 0.6%; the price in Henan was 14.4 yuan/kg, down 0.12 yuan or - 0.8% [2][4]. 3.2 Monthly Spread, Basis, and Warehouse Receipts - Spread: The 2509 - 2507 spread was 370, down 30; the 2511 - 2509 spread was - 125, up 70 [11]. - Basis: The basis for July was 830, down 485; the basis for September was 460, down 455 [11]. - Warehouse receipts: The number of pig warehouse receipts was 475, an increase of 475 [11]. 3.3 Inventory and Inventory Structure - Piglet market: The average price of weaned piglets was 486.19 yuan/head, down 19.38 yuan/head from last week. The piglet market continued to be weak, and the enthusiasm for replenishment declined. The average price of 50KG binary sows was 1641 yuan/head, remaining flat in recent weeks, with low market replenishment enthusiasm [19]. - Commodity pig inventory: It is expected that the inventory of commodity pigs in June may decrease, and the inventory of large pigs over 140 kg has decreased [19]. 3.4 Standard - Fat Price Spread - National average: The weekly average standard - fat price spread was - 0.05 yuan/kg, 0.04 yuan/kg wider than last week. The prices of both standard and fat pigs decreased, with an increase in the supply of standard pigs and restricted movement of fat pigs between regions [23]. - Future trend: As the temperature rises, the demand for fat pigs will be further limited, and the standard - fat price spread may narrow [23]. 3.5 Slaughtering End - Slaughtering operation rate: It was 28.9%, down 0.45 percentage points from last week. The market demand declined, and the operation rate of slaughtering enterprises is expected to continue to decline [26]. - Fresh - meat sales rate: The fresh - meat sales rate of key slaughtering enterprises was 88.36%, down 0.89 percentage points from last week, with slower fresh - meat sales [26]. - Frozen - meat storage rate: The frozen - meat storage rate of domestic key slaughtering enterprises was 17.32%, a slight increase of 0.04%. The trading volume of frozen meat was slow, and there was still involuntary storage in some areas [26]. 3.6 White - Striped Pork and Wholesale Market There is no clear summary information about white - striped pork and the wholesale market in the report, only some price and arrival - volume data are presented. 3.7 Profit and Cost - Self - breeding and self - raising: The weekly average profit was 94.98 yuan/head, an increase of 3.21 yuan/head from last week. - Purchasing piglets for breeding: The weekly average profit was 39.50 yuan/head, an increase of 3.21 yuan/head from last week. The improvement in profit was mainly driven by the decline in feed costs and the relatively stable pig prices [35]. 3.8 Market Information Summary - Supply: Some enterprises accelerated the slaughter of large - weight pigs, and the overall supply in June increased, with a loose market supply [38]. - Demand: As the temperature rises, it has entered the consumption off - season, and there is no holiday boost. The slaughtering volume still has room to decline [38]. - Inventory: The storage capacity of slaughtering enterprises is at a low level, and some unsold products are involuntarily stored [38]. - Policy: The "Administrative Measures for the License of Breeding Livestock and Poultry Production and Operation" will be implemented on July 1, 2025 [38]. - African swine fever: There are sporadic epidemic situations in some southern regions [38]. - Market sentiment: The overall sentiment is pessimistic due to large supply and weak demand [38].

Report Overview - Report Title: "2025.06.06 - Weekly Report on the Pig Market: Price Fluctuation and Weakening Basis" [2] - Researcher: Zhang Xin - Report Type: Weekly Market Report 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The pig market is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand, leading to a decline in pig prices to around 14 yuan/kg, and the short - term price is expected to remain weak. However, the futures market may have digested the expectations, with a smaller decline than the spot market, resulting in a weakening basis and a fluctuating adjustment trend. The recommended strategy is to wait and see or conduct light - position rolling short - selling operations on rebounds [7][8]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Weekly Highlights - Strategy: Wait and see or conduct light - position rolling short - selling operations on rebounds [7] - Market Review: Pig prices were weak, with the main contract down 1.07% weekly [8] - Outlook: Supply is increasing in the short and medium term, while demand is in the seasonal off - season, making it difficult to support prices [8] 3.2 Futures Market - Price Movement: Futures were weak, with the main contract down 1.07% weekly [12] - Net Position: The net short position of the top 20 futures holders decreased, with 475 futures warehouse receipts (an increase of 475 from last week) [17] 3.3 Spot Market - Basis: The basis of the July contract was 910 yuan/ton, and that of the September contract was 540 yuan/ton [22] - Pig and Piglet Prices: The national average pig price was 14.638 yuan/kg, down 0.24 yuan/kg from last week and 3.36% from last month. The average price of 15 - kg weaned piglets was 38.14 yuan/kg, down 2.52 yuan/kg from last week and 6.75% from last month [29] - Pork and Sow Prices: The national pork market price was 25.60 yuan/kg, down 0.08 yuan/kg from the previous week. The average price of binary sows was 32.52 yuan/kg, down 0.01 yuan/kg from the previous week [33] - Pig - Grain Ratio: The pig - grain ratio stopped falling and stabilized but was below the break - even point [37] 3.4 Upstream Supply - Sows: In April 2025, the inventory of breeding sows was 40380000, slightly decreasing from the previous month. In May, the inventory of large - scale farms and small and medium - sized farms increased slightly [42] - Pigs: In the first quarter, the pig inventory increased year - on - year, and in May, it increased month - on - month according to institutional data [45] - Slaughter: In May, the slaughter volume of large - scale and small and medium - sized farms decreased month - on - month, and the average slaughter weight decreased slightly [48] 3.5 Industry Situation - Breeding Profits: As of June 6, the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding was a loss of 120.8 yuan/head, and the profit of self - breeding and self - raising was 33.83 yuan/head. The profit of poultry breeding was a loss of 0.44 yuan/head, with a reduced loss compared to the previous week [51] - Import: From January to April 2025, the cumulative import of pork was 360000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.88% but at a historically low level [57] - Substitutes: The price of white - striped chickens decreased, and the standard - fat price difference decreased month - on - month [60] - Feed: The price of soybean meal decreased, the price of corn increased, the Dalian Commodity Exchange pig feed index rose, the spot pig feed price remained unchanged, and the feed production decreased year - on - year [66][69][74] - CPI: As of April 2025, the year - on - year CPI decrease was 0.1%, with a narrowing decline [77] 3.6 Downstream Demand - Slaughter: The slaughter enterprise's operating rate decreased, and the frozen product storage capacity increased slightly. In April, the slaughter volume increased, and the catering consumption recovered year - on - year [80][85] 3.7 Pig - Related Stocks - Mentioned stocks include Muyuan Co., Ltd. and Wens Co., Ltd., but no in - depth analysis was provided [86]

Group 1 - The overall performance of the agricultural sector, particularly the pig farming industry, is currently under pressure, with the average pig price showing a decline in several key provinces [1] - The average price of pork is 20.95 yuan/kg, reflecting a slight increase of 0.05% week-on-week, while the average price of piglets remains stable at 28.00 yuan/kg [1] - The self-breeding profit stands at 48.21 yuan per head, while the profit from purchasing piglets is negative at -16.06 yuan per head, indicating challenges in the market [1] Group 2 - The feed industry is expected to see a recovery in its business environment due to falling raw material prices and improving conditions in the breeding sector, with Hai Da Group positioned for potential growth [2] - The current cycle in the pig farming industry is characterized by a focus on reducing debt rather than rapidly increasing production capacity, with expectations for profitability to begin in Q2 2024 [2] - The market may be overly pessimistic regarding the impact of rising pig production capacity on profitability, potentially overlooking the positive effects of declining raw material costs and anticipated demand recovery in 2025 [2] Group 3 - The poultry industry, particularly the meat chicken sector, may experience performance improvements driven by new demand in 2025, with Saint Agriculture positioned at the bottom of its performance and valuation cycle [3] - The year 2025 is anticipated to be crucial for pet food brands, with a focus on brands that can lead market trends and show profit improvements, recommending domestic brands like Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Co. [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand situation of the pig market is expected to shift from short - term relative balance to looser, and the price is predicted to fluctuate weakly. The short - term supply pressure is moderate, but there is potential phased supply pressure, and the demand is cooling. It is recommended to hold short positions cautiously and set stop - losses [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Highlights Summary - **Market Review**: The pig price fluctuated and adjusted, with the main contract rising 0.11% weekly [6][11]. - **Market Outlook**: On the supply side, the post - festival slaughter rhythm of farmers is slow, and the slaughter weight remains stable. However, the price of fat pigs is lower than that of standard pigs, increasing the risk of secondary fattening and weakening the enthusiasm for entry. The pressure from the postponed supply may gradually appear after mid - to late May. According to the pig breeding cycle, the sow production capacity is in an increasing cycle in the second and third quarters, and the medium - term supply pressure is increasing. On the demand side, the post - festival terminal demand declines, the sales speed of white - striped pigs slows down again, the slaughterhouse operating rate decreases, and there are still passive inventory - building phenomena in a few areas. Overall, the short - term supply pressure is general, but the potential phased supply pressure exists, and the demand cools down [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions cautiously and set stop - losses [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets 3.2.1 Futures Market - **Price Movement**: The futures fluctuated and adjusted this week, and the main contract rose 0.11% weekly [8][11]. - **Net Position and Warehouse Receipts**: The net short position in futures decreased, and there were 705 futures warehouse receipts [13]. 3.2.2 Spot Market - **Pig and Piglet Prices**: The national average pig price this week was 14.94 yuan/kg, down 0.01 yuan/kg from last week and 0.47% from last month. The average price of 15 - kg weaned piglets was 40.90 yuan/kg, unchanged from last week and last month [28]. - **Pork and Breeding Sow Prices**: As of April 30th, the national average pork price was 26.02 yuan/kg, down 0.08 yuan/kg from the previous week. The average market price of binary sows this week was 32.52 yuan/kg, up 0.01 yuan/kg from the previous week [33]. - **Pig - Grain Ratio**: As of the week of April 23, 2025, the pig - grain ratio was 6.68, down 0.03 from the previous week [38]. 3.3 Industry Situation 3.3.1 Upstream Situation - **Sow Inventory**: In March 2025, the inventory of reproductive sows was 40.39 million, a decrease of 270,000 from the previous month and an increase of 1.17% year - on - year, equivalent to 103.6% of the normal inventory. In April, according to Mysteel data, the inventory of reproductive sows in large - scale farms increased slightly by 0.36% month - on - month and 4.31% year - on - year, and that in small and medium - sized farms increased by 1.61% month - on - month and 10.15% year - on - year [43]. - **Pig Inventory**: In Q1 2023, the national pig inventory was 417.31 million. In April, according to Mysteel data, the inventory of commercial pigs in large - scale farms increased by 0.10% month - on - month and 6.28% year - on - year, while that in small and medium - sized farms decreased by 0.91% month - on - month but increased by 10.98% year - on - year [46]. - **Slaughter Volume and Weight**: In April, the slaughter volume of commercial pigs in large - scale farms increased by 4.46% month - on - month and 26.58% year - on - year, and that in small and medium - sized farms increased by 4.09% month - on - month and 74.89% year - on - year. The average slaughter weight remained unchanged from last week [49]. 3.3.2 Industry Profit - **Pig Breeding Profit**: As of May 9th, the breeding profit of purchased piglets was 58.46 yuan/head, an increase of 9.92 yuan/head from the previous week, and the breeding profit of self - bred and self - raised pigs was 84.33 yuan/head, a decrease of 0.71 yuan/head from the previous week [54]. - **Poultry Breeding Profit**: As of May 9th, the poultry breeding profit was - 0.30 yuan/head, and the weekly loss increased by 0.15 yuan/head [54]. 3.3.3 Domestic Market - **Pork Imports**: From January to March 2025, China imported 280,000 tons of pork, a year - on - year increase of 7.69%, but it was at a historically low level [59]. 3.3.4 Substitute Products - **White - Striped Chicken Price**: As of the week of May 9th, the price of white - striped chicken was 13.7 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.1 yuan/kg from the previous week [62]. - **Standard - Fat Pig Price Difference**: As of the week of May 8th, the average price difference between standard and fat pigs was 0.03 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.02 yuan/kg from the previous week [62]. 3.3.5 Feed Situation - **Feed Ingredient Prices**: As of May 8th, the spot price of soybean meal was 3,358.29 yuan/ton, a decrease of 186.28 yuan/ton from the previous week. As of May 9th, the corn price was 2,363.14 yuan/ton, an increase of 49.61 yuan/ton from the previous week [68]. - **Feed Index and Price**: As of May 9th, the closing price of the Dalian Commodity Exchange pig feed cost index was 948.95, a decrease of 0.26% from the previous week. The price of finishing pig compound feed was 3.37 yuan/kg, remaining unchanged from the previous week [72]. - **Feed Production**: As of March 2025, the monthly feed production was 27.772 million tons, an increase of 1.428 million tons year - on - year [76]. 3.3.6 CPI - As of March 2025, China's CPI decreased by 0.1% year - on - year, and the decline narrowed by 0.6 percentage points compared with the previous month [80]. 3.3.7 Downstream Situation - **Slaughterhouse Operating Rate and Inventory**: In the 19th week, the slaughterhouse operating rate was 28.54%, a decrease of 0.41 percentage points from the previous week and an increase of 0.35 percentage points year - on - year. The frozen product storage rate of key slaughterhouses remained unchanged from the previous week [83]. - **Slaughter Volume and Catering Consumption**: As of March 2025, the slaughter volume of designated pig slaughterhouses was 30.63 million, an increase of 40.7% from the previous month. In March 2025, the national catering revenue was 423.55 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.6% [88]. 3.3.8 Pig - Related Stocks - The report mentions the stock trends of Muyuan Co., Ltd. and Wens Co., Ltd., but no specific data is provided [89].

Group 1: Core Breeding and Sales - The company operates three core breeding farms and four binary breeding farms, ranking first nationally in Duroc pig breeding for several years [1] - The company focuses on balanced breeding to improve growth speed and reproductive performance, aiming to shorten the time to market and enhance barn utilization [1] - The company anticipates that the current price of piglets will remain stable until October, with a low likelihood of prices falling below cost during the off-season [1] Group 2: Feed Sales and Market Dynamics - The feed distributor primarily sells pig feed to local smallholders, with sales volume around 1,200 tons per month, peaking at 1,400-1,500 tons [1] - The distributor notes a decline in self-breeding households due to stricter environmental regulations [1] Group 3: Pig Raising and Market Conditions - The contract farmer in Sichuan raises 7,000 pigs across two farms, with a total raising fee of approximately 220 yuan per pig [2] - The farmer highlights significant issues with piglet diarrhea affecting growth rates, leading to a desire for heavier pigs among both smallholders and larger farms [2] - A breeding company with a 200-head boar station believes piglet prices will remain high, with traditional seasonal price increases expected [2] Group 4: Trade and Supply Chain - A trading company focuses on pig trade, moving 5-6 trucks of pigs to slaughterhouses daily, with peak volumes reaching 30-40 trucks [3] - The company observes a stable price for piglets, predicting limited price increases but a potential decline after the end of the second fattening phase [3] - Another trading firm has shifted focus to piglet trade and reports increased supply of heavier pigs post-Qingming Festival, while anticipating a potential price drop for piglets [3] Group 5: Fattening and Market Impact - A company with 10,000 fattening pigs has cleared its stock, with an average weight of 120 kg per pig, and a feed-to-meat ratio of 2.5-2.6 [3] - The company indicates that if prices for second fattening pigs drop below 7 yuan/kg, it will consider restocking or fattening pigs [3] - The company believes that second fattening will significantly impact this year's pig market [3]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall fundamentals of the pig market are weak. Although holiday demand may drive a short - term price rebound after the festival, the market will face pressure again later. It is recommended to wait for a rebound to short [5][6]. - On the supply side, as the May Day holiday approaches, some breeders and second - fattening farmers are selling large pigs, increasing the average weight of slaughtered pigs. The risk of second - fattening has increased, and the enthusiasm for entry has weakened. The pressure from the postponed supply may gradually emerge after mid - to late May. According to the pig breeding cycle, the sow production capacity is in an increasing cycle in the second and third quarters, and the medium - term supply pressure is increasing [6]. - On the demand side, the slaughterhouse operating rate rose again last week. It is expected that the terminal demand will improve during the May Day holiday, but the demand may cool down again after the holiday, and the operating rate may first increase and then decrease. There are still passive inventory - building phenomena in a few areas [6]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs **Weekly Highlights Summary** - Strategy: Wait for a rebound to short [5]. - Market review: Pig prices continued to decline, with the main contract down 1.7% for the week. Market outlook: Supply pressure will gradually increase in the medium term, and demand may first increase and then decrease. Holiday demand may drive a short - term price rebound, but the market will be under pressure again [6]. **Futures Market Situation** - Futures prices fell, with the main contract down 1.7% for the week [6][10]. - The net short position in futures decreased, and the number of futures warrants increased. As of April 30, the net short position of the top 20 holders in pig futures was 15,386 lots, a decrease of 2,407 lots from the previous week, and the number of futures warrants was 705, an increase of 40 from the previous week [12][16]. **Spot Market Situation** - The basis of the May contract was 1,110 yuan/ton, and the basis of the September contract was 1,290 yuan/ton [20]. - The national average pig price was 14.92 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.6 yuan/kg from the previous week but an increase of 1.7% from the previous month. The average price of 15 - kg weaned piglets was 40.90 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous week but an increase of 0.86% from the previous month [27]. - The national average pork price was 26.10 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.02 yuan/kg from the previous week. The average market price of binary sows was 32.51 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous week [32]. - As of April 23, the pig - grain ratio was 6.68, a decrease of 0.03 from the previous week [37]. **Upstream Situation** - In March 2025, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.39 million heads, a decrease of 270,000 heads from the previous month, an increase of 1.17% year - on - year, equivalent to 103.6% of the normal inventory. According to Mysteel data, the inventory of breeding sows in large - scale farms and small and medium - sized farms increased slightly in March [42]. - In the first quarter of 2025, the national pig inventory increased year - on - year. In March, the inventory of large - scale farms and small and medium - sized farms increased month - on - month [45]. - In March, the slaughter volume of large - scale farms and small and medium - sized farms increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The average slaughter weight of national foreign - ternary pigs this week was 124.04 kg, an increase of 0.03 kg from the previous week [48]. **Industry Situation** - As of April 25, the breeding profit of purchased piglets was 53.53 yuan/head, an increase of 31.74 yuan/head from the previous week; the breeding profit of self - bred and self - raised pigs was 100.16 yuan/head, an increase of 20.71 yuan/head from the previous week. The poultry breeding profit was 0.05 yuan/head, an increase of 0.01 yuan/head from the previous week [53]. - From January to March 2025, China imported 280,000 tons of pork, a year - on - year increase of 7.69%, but it was at a historically low level [58]. - As of April 25, the price of white - striped chickens was 13.5 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous week; as of April 24, the average price difference between standard and fat pigs was 0.1 yuan/kg, a narrowing of 0.12 yuan/kg from the previous week [61]. - As of April 30, the spot price of soybean meal was 3,544.57 yuan/ton, a decrease of 424 yuan/ton from the previous week; the price of corn was 2,313.53 yuan/ton, an increase of 32.16 yuan/ton from the previous week [67]. - As of April 30, the closing price of the Dalian Commodity Exchange pig feed cost index was 951.35, an increase of 0.11% from the previous week; the price of fattening pig compound feed was 3.35 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous week [70]. - As of March 2025, the monthly feed production was 27.772 million tons, an increase of 1.428 million tons year - on - year [73]. - As of March 2025, China's CPI decreased by 0.1% year - on - year, and the decline narrowed by 0.6 percentage points compared with the previous month [77]. **Downstream Situation** - In the 17th week, the operating rate of slaughter enterprises was 27.19%, an increase of 0.35 percentage points from the previous week and 0.41 percentage points higher than the same period last year. As of Thursday this week, the frozen product storage rate of key domestic slaughter enterprises was 17.45%, a slight increase of 0.04 percentage points from the previous week [80]. - As of February 2025, the slaughter volume of designated pig slaughtering enterprises was 21.77 million heads, a decrease of 42.95% from the previous month. In March 2025, the national catering revenue was 423.55 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.6% [85]. **Pig - related Stocks** The report mentions the stock trends of Muyuan Co., Ltd. and Wens Co., Ltd., but no specific analysis content is provided [86].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [5] Core Insights - The average price of commodity pigs has weakened, with a week-on-week decline of 0.07%, currently at 14.45 CNY/kg. The average price of piglets remained stable after three weeks of decline [8][18] - The planned slaughter volume for March is expected to increase by 2.74% month-on-month, indicating increased market supply pressure [3][27] - The U.S. has imposed tariffs on certain agricultural products, which may affect domestic prices and increase costs for downstream industries [4][32] Summary by Sections Commodity Pig Prices - The average price of commodity pigs has decreased by 0.07% week-on-week, while the average price of piglets has remained stable [8][18] - The average weight of commodity pigs at slaughter has increased, with an average of 123.61 kg, up 0.08% week-on-week [26] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The number of breeding sows has decreased slightly, with a total of 40.62 million sows reported in January, down by 160,000 from the previous month [3][27] - The planned slaughter volume for March is 11.4759 million heads, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 2.74% [3][27] Profitability and Cost Analysis - The average profit for self-bred pigs is 33.56 CNY/head, down by 9.52 CNY from the previous week, while the average loss for purchased piglets is 12.52 CNY/head, a decrease of 21.91 CNY [28] - The price ratio of culling sows to commodity pigs is 0.71, indicating a slight decline from the previous week [18][26] Investment Recommendations - Focus on leading companies with scale and cost advantages in pig farming, such as Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and New Hope Liuhe [11][33] - In the poultry sector, consider companies with proprietary white feather chicken breeding sources [11][33]