1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply side: Considering planned出栏量, large pigs, piglets, and the inventory of breeding sows, pig出栏量 is expected to increase slightly until June next year and decline slightly in July. Year-on-year growth in pig出栏量 started in May this year and will continue until July next year. In November, the出栏量 of the breeding side may continue to increase, and the出栏 weight will increase seasonally. The concentrated entry of secondary fattening in October, combined with the release of production capacity, may create dual supply pressure before the Spring Festival [10]. - Demand side: In November, as the weather cools, the demand for curing and enema will increase slightly, and consumer demand will continue to rise. However, the overall increase will be limited. The demand for secondary fattening may decline, weakening the support for prices [10]. - Outlook: Spot prices are expected to fluctuate as supply and demand both increase. Futures prices are expected to be weak and fluctuate, mainly due to the potential dual supply pressure before the Spring Festival, but the impact of curing and enema on demand needs to be monitored [10]. - Strategies: Futures investors are advised to hold short positions or short on rallies with stop-loss. Breeding enterprises are advised to hold hedging short positions [10]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Market Review - Spot market: In October, the average national pig price first declined and then rose, showing a "V" shape, with the monthly average price moving downward. The出栏量 increased, and secondary fattening effectively buffered the supply pressure. The average national pig出栏 price in October was 11.6 yuan/kg, a month-on-month decrease of 1.7 yuan/kg or 12.78%. The expected cost of self - breeding and self - raising decreased, and the profit per head of self - breeding and self - raising was - 34.5 yuan/head, a month - on - month increase of 20 yuan/head; the profit per head of purchasing piglets for fattening was - 258 yuan/head, a month - on - month increase of 50 yuan/head [12]. - Futures market: In October, the main futures contract 2601 fluctuated downward, closing at 11,815 yuan/ton on the 31st, a month - on - month decrease of 540 yuan/ton or 4.37%, with a basis of 235 yuan/ton [13]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Long - term Supply: Breeding Sow Inventory - Price: In October, the average market price of 50KG binary sows was 1551 yuan/head, a slight decrease of 42 yuan/head from the previous month [19]. - Inventory: According to official data, as of the end of September 2025, the inventory of breeding sows was 4.035 billion heads, a month - on - month decrease of 0.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.7%. According to Yongyi data, as of September, the sample farm's breeding sow inventory was 1.1458 million heads, a month - on - month decrease of 0.84% and a year - on - year increase of 4.71%. Theoretically, pig出栏量 is expected to show certain trends from this year to next year [20][21]. 3.2.2 Medium - term Supply: Piglet Inventory - Price: In October, the average market price of 15KG piglets was 267 yuan/head, a month - on - month decrease of 29.33% [35]. - Inventory: As of September, the sample enterprise's piglet inventory was 2.4159 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 1.42% and a year - on - year increase of 11.36%. Theoretically, pig出栏量 is expected to increase slightly from October this year to March next year [35]. 3.2.3 Short - term Supply: Large Pig Inventory, Hogging and Secondary Fattening - Large pig inventory: As of September, the sample enterprise's large pig inventory was 1.343 million heads, with a month - on - month increase of 1.77%. Theoretically, pig出栏量 in October and November will increase month - on - month [36]. - Hogging and secondary fattening: In September, the proportion of large pigs over 140 kg increased. In October, the proportion of secondary fattening sales increased, and the spread between fat and standard pigs widened, leading to increased reluctance to sell [37][38]. 3.2.4 Current Supply: Commercial Pig出栏量 and出栏 Weight -出栏量: In October 2025, the actual出栏量 of the sample was 27.56 million heads, with a completion rate of 105.7%. The planned出栏量 in November decreased by 3.27% compared to the actual出栏量 in October. From January to September 2025, the total pig出栏量 was 529.92 million heads, a year - on - year increase of 1.8% [42]. -出栏 weight: In October, the average出栏 weight was 128.1 kg, a month - on - month decrease of 0.23% and a year - on - year increase of 1.75%. In November, the出栏 weight is expected to rise. The proportion of small - weight pigs remained stable, and the proportion of large - weight pigs decreased [43]. 3.2.5 Import Supply: Pork Imports In September, China's pork imports were 80,000 tons, the same as the previous month and a year - on - year decrease of 20,000 tons. From January to September 2025, the total pork imports were 790,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.24% [49]. 3.2.6 Demand - Secondary fattening: In October, the enthusiasm for secondary fattening increased in the middle and late months. In November, the demand for secondary fattening may decline as the utilization rate of pens reaches a high level [52]. - Slaughter: As of the end of October, the slaughter enterprise's operating rate was 35.31%, a month - on - month increase of 3 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 7.59 percentage points. In November, the operating rate is expected to increase slightly [56]. - Terminal demand: In October, consumer demand increased as the weather cooled. In November, consumer demand is expected to continue to rise slightly, but the overall increase will be limited [57]. 3.2.7 Supply - Demand Situation In October, the fresh - meat sales rate of key slaughter enterprises decreased slightly, and the frozen - meat storage rate increased. In November, supply and demand are expected to increase, and the fresh - meat sales rate may fluctuate steadily, while the frozen - meat storage rate will be adjusted narrowly [65][67]. 3.3 Later Outlook - Supply side: Pig出栏量 is expected to increase slightly until June next year and decline slightly in July. In November, the出栏量 of the breeding side may increase, and the出栏 weight will increase seasonally. The concentrated entry of secondary fattening in October may create dual supply pressure before the Spring Festival [69]. - Demand side: In November, consumer demand is expected to increase slightly as the weather cools, but the overall increase will be limited. The demand for secondary fattening may decline, weakening the support for prices [69]. - Outlook: Spot prices are expected to fluctuate, and futures prices are expected to be weak and fluctuate, mainly due to the potential dual supply pressure before the Spring Festival, but the impact of curing and enema on demand needs to be monitored [69][70]. - Strategies: Futures investors are advised to hold short positions or short on rallies with stop - loss. Breeding enterprises are advised to hold hedging short positions [70].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - From the number of piglet births, the pattern of increasing theoretical slaughter volume in the later period remains unchanged. Considering the impact of pig diseases around February, the slaughter growth rate in August may be relatively low, while the growth rates in October and November are relatively high. With the increase in graduation banquets in August and pre - stocking for the start of school in early September, demand will increase significantly in August. After September, terminal consumption will have a seasonal rebound. Supported by the low slaughter growth rate and increased consumption in August, the spot price is expected to rise again and reach the annual high, followed by an expected shock adjustment, but the adjustment space is limited due to the policy - guided reduction of the average slaughter weight [1][21] - LH2509 and LH2511 have a high premium over the spot, which has fully priced in the later spot price increase, so shorting on rallies can be considered [1][21] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - In July, the spot market of live pigs declined. The spot price in the benchmark Henan region dropped from the high of 15.34 yuan/kg at the beginning of the month to around 14.3 yuan/kg, a decline of nearly 1 yuan. Futures performed stronger than the spot, causing the basis to weaken rapidly. The futures price has turned to a premium of nearly 1000 yuan/ton compared to the spot in Sichuan Province. The decline in the live pig market was mainly due to the reduction of supply by large - scale farms at the beginning of the month, followed by the resumption of their supply, increased willingness of small - scale farmers to sell pigs due to hot weather, and weak consumption. The strong performance of futures comes from seasonal expectations and policy expectations [3] 3.2 Live Pig Supply and Demand Analysis 3.2.1 Continued Increase in Theoretical Slaughter Volume Indicated by Data of Sows and Piglets - The national inventory of reproductive sows reached a low of 39.86 million in May 2024, then rebounded to a high of 40.8 million in November 2024, with an increase of 2.4% from the low to the high. As of June 2025, it was 40.42 million, equivalent to 103.6% of the normal inventory. From the data of reproductive sows, the supply potential of commercial pigs will gradually increase from February to September 2025. The number of piglet births in sample enterprises has generally been increasing since November 2024, indicating that the domestic live pig supply is still guaranteed during the traditional seasonal rise window period from July to September 2025 [4] 3.2.2 Feed Sales Data Confirm the Increase in Live Pig Inventory - From October 2024 to January 2025, the sales volume of piglet feed and nursery feed decreased seasonally, but the decline was significantly lower than in previous years, indicating that piglets were less damaged in winter. The sales volume of finishing pig feed increased significantly month - on - month in March 2025, earlier than in previous years. The year - on - year growth rates of finishing pig feed sales volume from May to June were 17% and 9% respectively, indicating an obvious recovery in the inventory of medium - and large - sized pigs and relatively sufficient slaughter volume in the next 2 - 3 months [8] 3.2.3 Accelerated Slaughter of Heavy - Weight Pigs Later, but Unlikely to Cause Concentrated Selling Pressure - The average weight of slaughtered pigs in 16 key provinces reached the peak in May and then declined, with an accelerated decline in June and July, and is currently at the lowest level in the past 5 years. The decline is due to the increase in temperature and government policies. Seasonally, the price difference between fat and standard pigs will gradually increase after August, and the demand for fat pigs will increase seasonally. With the current low average weight, there is a large space for the industry to increase the average weight in the later period [10] 3.2.4 Short - Term Demand Boosted by Festivals, but No Highlights in the Medium Term - The national pig slaughter volume has increased significantly compared with the previous year, and the slaughter gross profit in 2025 has been significantly higher than that in the previous year, indicating better demand this year. The reasons may be the improvement of overall terminal consumption and the reduction of the impact of frozen products. In August, demand will increase significantly due to graduation banquets and pre - stocking for the start of school. After September, terminal consumption will have a seasonal rebound, but the impact on price depends on the matching degree of future supply [13] 3.2.5 Feed Cost Reduction Benefits the Industry, Maintaining Profitability - The domestic live pig industry has maintained profitability for nearly 14 months since May 2024. Although the pig price was low in the first half of 2025, the industry still made a profit due to the reduction of feed costs. The price of piglets has been rising since January, and the cost of fattening pigs from purchased piglets will increase significantly. The theoretical cost of fattening pigs from self - bred piglets is concentrated in the range of 13 - 13.5 yuan/kg, while the cost of fattening pigs from purchased piglets will rise to the range of 15 - 16 yuan/kg. It is expected that the feed cost is likely to rise and difficult to fall, and the decline space of live pig breeding cost is limited [19] 3.3 Conclusion and Market Outlook - The pattern of increasing theoretical slaughter volume in the later period remains unchanged. Considering the impact of pig diseases around February, the slaughter growth rate in August may be relatively low, while the growth rates in October and November are relatively high. The large - scale groups are accelerating the reduction of the average slaughter weight, which may reduce the slaughter pressure in August, but small - scale farmers have a large number of heavy - weight pigs in stock. Supported by the low slaughter growth rate and increased consumption in August, the spot price is expected to rise again and reach the annual high, followed by an expected shock adjustment, but the adjustment space is limited. LH2509 and LH2511 have a high premium over the spot, so shorting on rallies can be considered [1][21]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The report suggests that the price of live pigs will be in a weak and volatile state. The main reasons are that the supply of live pigs will be abundant from the second to the fourth quarter of 2025, and the demand in the second and third quarters will not strongly support the price increase. Although the spot price may reach a new low, the price of the 09 contract is considered to be in a relatively reasonable range, and it is recommended to wait and see for now [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Dynamics - On June 10, the registered warehouse receipts of live pigs were 525 lots [2]. - The LH2507 contract is mainly based on the regression of futures and spot prices and the game of delivery. The far - month contracts are affected by the decline of spot prices and the expected increase in subsequent slaughter volume, showing a weak and volatile trend [2]. - The main contract (LH2509) reduced its position by 1,258 lots today, with a position of about 78,600 lots. The highest price was 13,505 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 13,350 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 13,475 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the inventory of fertile sows, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase month - by - month from March to December, but the increase is limited. According to the piglet data, the slaughter volume of live pigs will generally increase in the second and third quarters of 2025. The first half of the year is the off - season for demand, while the second half is the peak season [3]. - Based on historical situations and current fundamentals, the fat - standard price difference may fluctuate and adjust [3]. - The bearish logic in the market includes: the farming side has not yet reduced the weight of pigs, which is actually bearish for the future market; the subsequent slaughter volume is expected to continue to increase; the second and third quarters are not the peak consumption seasons, and the demand support for pig prices is limited. The bullish logic includes: there is still room for an increase in frozen product inventory, which can support pig prices; the spot price is firm, indicating that the supply - demand relationship is not as loose as the bears think; although there will be an increase in subsequent slaughter, the increase is limited, and the third and fourth quarters are gradually entering the peak consumption season for live pigs [3]. 3.3 Strategy Suggestion - The view is that the market will be weak and volatile [4]. - The core logic is that from the data of sows and piglets, the slaughter volume of live pigs will be sufficient in the second, third, and fourth quarters of 2025, and there is no basis for a significant increase in pig prices. The demand support for pig prices in the second and third quarters is weak, and it is difficult to support a significant increase in pig prices. If there is a concentrated and significant weight reduction in June and July, pig prices may reach a new low. Although the spot price may reach a new low, due to the high uncertainty and the fact that the current weight reduction is actually beneficial to the 09 contract, it is considered that the price of the 09 contract is currently in a relatively reasonable range, and it is recommended to wait and see [4]. 3.4 Market Overview - On June 10, the national average live pig slaughter price was 14.01 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.09 yuan/kg or 0.65% compared with the previous day. The average slaughter price in Henan was 14.13 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.22 yuan/kg or 1.58%. The average slaughter price in Sichuan was 13.84 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.1 yuan/kg or 0.73% [6]. - Among the futures prices, the prices of most contracts increased, with the 07 contract increasing by 1.19% and the 09 contract increasing by 0.89%, while the 11 contract decreased by 0.08% [6]. - The main contract basis in Henan increased by 100 yuan/ton or 22.99% to 535 yuan/ton [6]. 3.5 Key Data Tracking The report provides data charts on the closing prices of futures contracts in the past 180 days, the basis of the main live pig contract in the Henan region, the price difference between the 09 - 11 contracts, and the price difference between the 11 - 01 contracts [14].