Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector [4] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the pig farming sector currently has a large safety margin due to sufficient trading expectations, with potential pressure on pig output in the first half of 2025 [3][4] - The report highlights that the supply of breeding sows continues to decline, with the number of breeding sows at 40.39 million heads, down 1.0% quarter-on-quarter [2][13] - The report notes that the average price of live pigs has decreased to 15.2 yuan/kg in March, reflecting a 3.6% decline month-on-month, while the average price of piglets has increased by 2.8% month-on-month [18][34] Summary by Sections 1. Pig Farming Sector - The average weight of pigs at slaughter has increased to 128.94 kg, up 0.37 kg week-on-week, indicating a potential supply-demand balance [35] - The total number of pigs slaughtered in Q1 2025 was 19.476 million heads, a year-on-year increase of 0.11% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 6.86% [14] - The average profit per pig has decreased to 84 yuan per head for large-scale farms and 54 yuan per head for smallholders, down from 131 yuan and 75 yuan respectively in February [18] 2. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on pig farming companies with high output and cost recovery, specifically recommending Muyuan Foods and Shennong Group, while suggesting to pay attention to Wens Foodstuff Group and Juxing Agriculture [3] - For the post-cycle sector, the recovery in pig inventory is expected to boost demand for feed and veterinary products, with a recommendation to focus on Haida Group [3] - In the planting chain, the report suggests that the strong grain prices due to Sino-US tariff disputes present investment opportunities, recommending companies like Suqian Agricultural Development and Beidahuang [3] 3. Market Performance - The agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector underperformed the market, with a decline of 0.16% compared to a 0.56% increase in the Shanghai Composite Index [26] - The report details that the animal health, feed, and agricultural product processing sectors saw varying performance, with animal health up 5.42% and poultry farming down 1.22% [26][29]

2025 年 4 月 27 日 行业研究 一季度均重显著抬升，养殖利润持续缩窄 ——光大证券农林牧渔行业周报（20250421-20250427） 要点 投资建议：（1）生猪养殖板块，预期交易充分背景下，板块当前安全边际较 大。结合前期新生仔猪量来看，25H1 商品猪出栏压力较大，上半年可能开启 去产能交易。重点推荐出栏、成本兑现度高的养殖企业牧原股份、神农集团， 建议关注温氏股份、巨星农牧。（2）后周期板块，生猪存栏量回升将提振饲 料、动保需求，估值修复板块将开启上行，建议关注海大集团。（3）种植链， 中美关税摩擦再度将大宗农产品带到舞台中央，粮价走强背景下，大种植投资 机会凸显，种植链建议关注苏垦农发、北大荒、海南橡胶、秋乐种业、隆平高 科、登海种业。（4）宠物板块，宠食行业是"长坡厚雪"的优质赛道，海外市 场增量不断，国产品牌认可度持续提升，建议关注乖宝宠物、中宠股份、佩蒂 股份等。 风险分析：畜禽价格不及预期；畜禽疫病大规模爆发；原材料价格大幅波动。 农林牧渔 买入（维持） 作者 分析师：李晓渊 执业证书编号：S0930523100002 021-52523881 lixiaoyuan@ebscn.c ...