Group 1 - The livestock sector is showing strength despite the overall market decline, with the Livestock ETF (516760) rising by 1.87% and key stocks like TianKang Biological (002100) and LuoNiuShan (000735) both increasing by 4.19% [1] - In October, the number of breeding sows decreased by 0.77% month-on-month, indicating a faster pace of capacity reduction across different farm sizes [1] - Current prices for fat pigs have dropped below 12 yuan per kilogram, and weaning pig prices are around 200 yuan per head, leading the industry into a phase of overall losses [1] Group 2 - The Livestock ETF closely tracks the CSI Livestock Breeding Index, which includes companies involved in animal feed, veterinary drugs, and livestock farming, reflecting the overall performance of related listed companies [2] - The latest price-to-book ratio (PB) for the CSI Livestock Breeding Index is 2.69, which is lower than 80.76% of the time over the past five years, indicating a strong valuation appeal [2] - With the industry at a low point in terms of economic conditions and expected supply-side contraction, the profitability of quality pig farming companies is likely to improve, suggesting a potential revaluation of these firms [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the pig farming sector is experiencing fluctuations due to declining pig prices, with significant capital inflow into the breeding ETF (159865), which has attracted over 1.3 billion yuan in the past 10 days and has seen its share grow by over 100% this year, reaching a total scale of over 7.3 billion yuan [1][2]. Group 2 - From May to September this year, the government held several meetings regarding pig farming, implementing stricter regulatory policies, and requiring leading pig companies to reduce production by 1 million heads by the end of the year [2]. - Huashan Securities predicts that the pig farming industry will enter a phase of capacity reduction starting in July 2025, with the number of breeding sows decreasing by 50,000 heads cumulatively from July to August [2]. - The breeding ETF (159865) tracks the China Securities Livestock Breeding Index, which has approximately 60% exposure to "pigs," indicating potential investment opportunities for interested investors [2].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights a recent decline in the Livestock ETF (159865), which dropped nearly 1.5% during trading, despite significant capital inflow into the livestock sector amid a "de-involution" backdrop [1] - Over the past 10 trading days, the Livestock ETF has seen a net inflow of over 1.4 billion yuan, bringing its current scale to over 7.3 billion yuan, indicating strong investor interest [1] - There has been substantial capital subscription in the Livestock ETF today, suggesting ongoing investor confidence in the sector [1] Group 2 - From May to September this year, the government held several meetings regarding pig farming, implementing stricter regulatory policies, with leading pig farming companies required to reduce production by 1 million heads by the end of the year [2] - According to Huashan Securities, the pig farming industry is expected to enter a phase of capacity reduction starting July 2025, with a cumulative decrease of 50,000 breeding sows reported from July to August [2] - The Livestock ETF tracks the China Securities Livestock Breeding Index, which has approximately 60% exposure to pigs, presenting potential investment opportunities for interested investors [2]

资金流向来看，据Wind数据，畜牧养殖ETF（516670）昨日获资金净流入超1638万元，近7个交易日 （10月10日-10月20日）获资金连续净流入近1.5亿元。 证券时报指出，猪价"跌跌不休"导致生猪养殖业陷入全面亏损状态。在上市公司层面，最大生猪养殖企 业牧原股份披露的2025年9月份销售简报显示，9月其商品猪销售均价12.88元/公斤，同比变动-30.94%； 商品猪销售收入90.66亿元，同比变动-22.46%。对于中小养殖户来说，在猪价持续低于成本线情况下， 资金链断裂风险越来越大。数据显示，当前，自繁自养模式下每头猪亏损高达50多元，外购仔猪育肥的 养殖户更是每头猪亏损已经达到约150元。 国金证券分析认为，猪价快速下跌产生抗价情绪，二次育肥入场使得价格小幅反弹，目前猪价仍处于下 跌趋势，全行业处于亏损状态，同时从出栏均重角度看，猪价下跌的过程中行业库存未曾出现大幅下 降，本周生猪出栏均重为128.25公斤/头，依旧处于历史中高区间。从供给端角度来看，接下来几个月 生猪出栏环比持续增加，叠加控制二育增强，季节性累库空间有限，生猪价格仍有下探空间。年前政策 端主动去产能或持续推进，同时板块的持续 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights a recent pullback in the Livestock ETF (159865) amidst a backdrop of "anti-involution," with continued capital inflow into the livestock sector, totaling over 1.2 billion yuan in net inflows over the past 10 trading days, bringing the current scale to nearly 7 billion yuan [1][2]. Group 2 - From May to September this year, the government held several meetings regarding pig farming, implementing stricter regulatory policies, with leading pig farming companies required to reduce production by 1 million heads by the end of the year. The Agricultural and Rural Affairs Ministry reported a cumulative decrease of 50,000 breeding sows from July to August [2]. - It is anticipated that the pig farming industry will enter a phase of capacity reduction starting in July 2025, with the ongoing losses in the industry and strict regulatory policies likely accelerating this process [2]. - The Livestock ETF (159865) tracks the China Securities Livestock Breeding Index, with approximately 60% exposure to "pigs," presenting potential investment opportunities for interested investors [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector [4] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the pig farming sector currently has a large safety margin due to sufficient trading expectations, with potential pressure on pig output in the first half of 2025 [3][4] - The report highlights that the supply of breeding sows continues to decline, with the number of breeding sows at 40.39 million heads, down 1.0% quarter-on-quarter [2][13] - The report notes that the average price of live pigs has decreased to 15.2 yuan/kg in March, reflecting a 3.6% decline month-on-month, while the average price of piglets has increased by 2.8% month-on-month [18][34] Summary by Sections 1. Pig Farming Sector - The average weight of pigs at slaughter has increased to 128.94 kg, up 0.37 kg week-on-week, indicating a potential supply-demand balance [35] - The total number of pigs slaughtered in Q1 2025 was 19.476 million heads, a year-on-year increase of 0.11% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 6.86% [14] - The average profit per pig has decreased to 84 yuan per head for large-scale farms and 54 yuan per head for smallholders, down from 131 yuan and 75 yuan respectively in February [18] 2. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on pig farming companies with high output and cost recovery, specifically recommending Muyuan Foods and Shennong Group, while suggesting to pay attention to Wens Foodstuff Group and Juxing Agriculture [3] - For the post-cycle sector, the recovery in pig inventory is expected to boost demand for feed and veterinary products, with a recommendation to focus on Haida Group [3] - In the planting chain, the report suggests that the strong grain prices due to Sino-US tariff disputes present investment opportunities, recommending companies like Suqian Agricultural Development and Beidahuang [3] 3. Market Performance - The agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector underperformed the market, with a decline of 0.16% compared to a 0.56% increase in the Shanghai Composite Index [26] - The report details that the animal health, feed, and agricultural product processing sectors saw varying performance, with animal health up 5.42% and poultry farming down 1.22% [26][29]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector [4]. Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the pig farming sector has a significant safety margin under the current trading expectations, with potential pressure on pig output in the first half of 2025 due to high levels of new piglets [3][4]. - The report highlights that the supply of pigs is expected to rebound, which will boost demand for feed and animal health products, leading to a valuation recovery in related sectors [3]. - The report emphasizes investment opportunities in the planting chain due to rising grain prices amid US-China tariff tensions, recommending several companies in this space [3]. Summary by Sections 1. Pig Farming Sector - The average price of pigs has decreased to 14.95 yuan/kg as of April 25, 2025, with a week-on-week change of -0.13% [35]. - The total number of pigs slaughtered in Q1 2025 was 19,476 million heads, showing a year-on-year increase of 0.11% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 6.86% [14]. - The average profit per pig has continued to decline, with large-scale farms reporting a profit of 84 yuan per head in March, down from 131 yuan in February [18]. 2. Key Data Tracking - The number of breeding sows as of the end of March 2025 was 40.39 million heads, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 1.0% [13]. - The average weight of pigs at slaughter has increased to 128.94 kg, with a week-on-week increase of 0.37 kg [35]. - The average price of piglets in March 2025 was 37.24 yuan/kg, with a year-on-year increase of 16% [18]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on pig farming companies with high output and cost recovery, specifically mentioning Muyuan Foods and Shennong Group, while also suggesting attention to Wens Foodstuff Group and Juxing Agriculture [3]. - For the post-cycle sector, the report suggests that the rebound in pig inventory will enhance demand for feed and animal health products, recommending Hai Da Group [3]. - In the planting chain, the report highlights investment opportunities in companies like Suqian Agricultural Development, Beidahuang, and Hainan Rubber due to strong grain prices [3].