农林牧渔 节后猪价超预期下跌强化去产能逻辑 华泰研究 证券研究报告 2026 年 3 月 02 日│中国内地 动态点评 春节后猪价持续下跌，截至 3 月 2 日全国生猪均价已经跌至 10.56 元/公斤， 再创 2022 年以来新低。我们认为，猪价超预期下跌背景下，行业亏损幅度 扩大，能繁母猪存栏去化有望加速，从而生猪养殖板块去产能逻辑预计得到 强化，重申重点推荐生猪养殖板块，标的上推荐牧原股份、温氏股份、神农 集团。 后期猪价低点或将跌破 10 元/公斤 春节后猪价持续下跌，截至 3 月 2 日全国生猪均价已经跌至 10.56 元/公斤， 我们认为，后期低点或将跌破 10 元/公斤，主要基于：1）从中长期供给看， 全国能繁母猪存栏量自 2025 年 8 月起才开始去化，意味着生猪供应预计在 今年 6 月前持续增加；2）从短期供应看，上周生猪出栏均重约为 127.7 公 斤，较去年同期（春节后一周）高 3.6 公斤左右，且节后肥标差较节前走弱， 这与去年节后肥标差走强的情形截然不同，二者均表明今年春节前大猪出栏 不充分，当前生猪供应仍过剩，且二次育肥养户短期内无接猪计划。3）需 求端，春节后为传统猪肉消费淡季 ...

Group 1 - The livestock sector is showing strength despite the overall market decline, with the Livestock ETF (516760) rising by 1.87% and key stocks like TianKang Biological (002100) and LuoNiuShan (000735) both increasing by 4.19% [1] - In October, the number of breeding sows decreased by 0.77% month-on-month, indicating a faster pace of capacity reduction across different farm sizes [1] - Current prices for fat pigs have dropped below 12 yuan per kilogram, and weaning pig prices are around 200 yuan per head, leading the industry into a phase of overall losses [1] Group 2 - The Livestock ETF closely tracks the CSI Livestock Breeding Index, which includes companies involved in animal feed, veterinary drugs, and livestock farming, reflecting the overall performance of related listed companies [2] - The latest price-to-book ratio (PB) for the CSI Livestock Breeding Index is 2.69, which is lower than 80.76% of the time over the past five years, indicating a strong valuation appeal [2] - With the industry at a low point in terms of economic conditions and expected supply-side contraction, the profitability of quality pig farming companies is likely to improve, suggesting a potential revaluation of these firms [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the pig farming sector is experiencing fluctuations due to declining pig prices, with significant capital inflow into the breeding ETF (159865), which has attracted over 1.3 billion yuan in the past 10 days and has seen its share grow by over 100% this year, reaching a total scale of over 7.3 billion yuan [1][2]. Group 2 - From May to September this year, the government held several meetings regarding pig farming, implementing stricter regulatory policies, and requiring leading pig companies to reduce production by 1 million heads by the end of the year [2]. - Huashan Securities predicts that the pig farming industry will enter a phase of capacity reduction starting in July 2025, with the number of breeding sows decreasing by 50,000 heads cumulatively from July to August [2]. - The breeding ETF (159865) tracks the China Securities Livestock Breeding Index, which has approximately 60% exposure to "pigs," indicating potential investment opportunities for interested investors [2].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights a recent decline in the Livestock ETF (159865), which dropped nearly 1.5% during trading, despite significant capital inflow into the livestock sector amid a "de-involution" backdrop [1] - Over the past 10 trading days, the Livestock ETF has seen a net inflow of over 1.4 billion yuan, bringing its current scale to over 7.3 billion yuan, indicating strong investor interest [1] - There has been substantial capital subscription in the Livestock ETF today, suggesting ongoing investor confidence in the sector [1] Group 2 - From May to September this year, the government held several meetings regarding pig farming, implementing stricter regulatory policies, with leading pig farming companies required to reduce production by 1 million heads by the end of the year [2] - According to Huashan Securities, the pig farming industry is expected to enter a phase of capacity reduction starting July 2025, with a cumulative decrease of 50,000 breeding sows reported from July to August [2] - The Livestock ETF tracks the China Securities Livestock Breeding Index, which has approximately 60% exposure to pigs, presenting potential investment opportunities for interested investors [2]

Core Viewpoint - The rapid decline in pig prices has led to significant losses in the pig farming industry, with many farmers facing financial distress as prices fall below production costs [1][2]. Group 1: Price Trends - The average purchase price for live pigs from designated slaughterhouses was 13.45 yuan/kg, a decrease of 3.0% week-on-week and 29.2% year-on-year [1]. - The average ex-factory price for pork was 17.58 yuan/kg, down 2.7% week-on-week and 28.5% year-on-year [1]. - On October 20, the price for live pigs (external three yuan) was 11.18 yuan/kg, a year-on-year decrease of 35.41%, falling below the cost line of 13-14 yuan/kg for most farming entities [1]. Group 2: Industry Impact - The continuous drop in pig prices has resulted in comprehensive losses for the pig farming industry, with major companies like Muyuan Foods reporting a September average selling price of 12.88 yuan/kg, down 30.94% year-on-year, and a sales revenue of 9.066 billion yuan, down 22.46% year-on-year [1]. - Small and medium-sized farmers are increasingly at risk of financial collapse, with losses per pig reaching over 50 yuan for self-bred pigs and approximately 150 yuan for those purchasing piglets for fattening [1]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - Analysts from Guojin Securities noted that the rapid decline in pig prices has created a negative sentiment, although there has been a slight rebound due to secondary fattening [2]. - The average weight of pigs at market release remains high at 128.25 kg, indicating that inventory levels have not significantly decreased despite falling prices [2]. - The supply of live pigs is expected to increase in the coming months, with limited seasonal accumulation space, suggesting further potential price declines [2]. Group 4: Investment Opportunities - There is a focus on the potential for capacity reduction in the industry, which may create low-entry opportunities for leading pig farming companies as the market adjusts [2]. - Recent data indicates a net inflow of over 16.38 million yuan into the livestock farming ETF (516670), with a total net inflow of nearly 150 million yuan over the past seven trading days [2]. Group 5: ETF Overview - The livestock farming ETF (516670) closely tracks the China Securities Livestock Farming Index, covering approximately 60% of the weight of stocks related to pig farming, including major companies like Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs [3]. - The ETF also encompasses upstream and downstream sectors such as vaccines and feed, as well as poultry and aquaculture [3]. - The management fee for the ETF is 0.2% per year, which is lower than the typical 0.5% for similar index products [3].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights a recent pullback in the Livestock ETF (159865) amidst a backdrop of "anti-involution," with continued capital inflow into the livestock sector, totaling over 1.2 billion yuan in net inflows over the past 10 trading days, bringing the current scale to nearly 7 billion yuan [1][2]. Group 2 - From May to September this year, the government held several meetings regarding pig farming, implementing stricter regulatory policies, with leading pig farming companies required to reduce production by 1 million heads by the end of the year. The Agricultural and Rural Affairs Ministry reported a cumulative decrease of 50,000 breeding sows from July to August [2]. - It is anticipated that the pig farming industry will enter a phase of capacity reduction starting in July 2025, with the ongoing losses in the industry and strict regulatory policies likely accelerating this process [2]. - The Livestock ETF (159865) tracks the China Securities Livestock Breeding Index, with approximately 60% exposure to "pigs," presenting potential investment opportunities for interested investors [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector [4] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the pig farming sector currently has a large safety margin due to sufficient trading expectations, with potential pressure on pig output in the first half of 2025 [3][4] - The report highlights that the supply of breeding sows continues to decline, with the number of breeding sows at 40.39 million heads, down 1.0% quarter-on-quarter [2][13] - The report notes that the average price of live pigs has decreased to 15.2 yuan/kg in March, reflecting a 3.6% decline month-on-month, while the average price of piglets has increased by 2.8% month-on-month [18][34] Summary by Sections 1. Pig Farming Sector - The average weight of pigs at slaughter has increased to 128.94 kg, up 0.37 kg week-on-week, indicating a potential supply-demand balance [35] - The total number of pigs slaughtered in Q1 2025 was 19.476 million heads, a year-on-year increase of 0.11% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 6.86% [14] - The average profit per pig has decreased to 84 yuan per head for large-scale farms and 54 yuan per head for smallholders, down from 131 yuan and 75 yuan respectively in February [18] 2. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on pig farming companies with high output and cost recovery, specifically recommending Muyuan Foods and Shennong Group, while suggesting to pay attention to Wens Foodstuff Group and Juxing Agriculture [3] - For the post-cycle sector, the recovery in pig inventory is expected to boost demand for feed and veterinary products, with a recommendation to focus on Haida Group [3] - In the planting chain, the report suggests that the strong grain prices due to Sino-US tariff disputes present investment opportunities, recommending companies like Suqian Agricultural Development and Beidahuang [3] 3. Market Performance - The agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector underperformed the market, with a decline of 0.16% compared to a 0.56% increase in the Shanghai Composite Index [26] - The report details that the animal health, feed, and agricultural product processing sectors saw varying performance, with animal health up 5.42% and poultry farming down 1.22% [26][29]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector [4]. Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the pig farming sector has a significant safety margin under the current trading expectations, with potential pressure on pig output in the first half of 2025 due to high levels of new piglets [3][4]. - The report highlights that the supply of pigs is expected to rebound, which will boost demand for feed and animal health products, leading to a valuation recovery in related sectors [3]. - The report emphasizes investment opportunities in the planting chain due to rising grain prices amid US-China tariff tensions, recommending several companies in this space [3]. Summary by Sections 1. Pig Farming Sector - The average price of pigs has decreased to 14.95 yuan/kg as of April 25, 2025, with a week-on-week change of -0.13% [35]. - The total number of pigs slaughtered in Q1 2025 was 19,476 million heads, showing a year-on-year increase of 0.11% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 6.86% [14]. - The average profit per pig has continued to decline, with large-scale farms reporting a profit of 84 yuan per head in March, down from 131 yuan in February [18]. 2. Key Data Tracking - The number of breeding sows as of the end of March 2025 was 40.39 million heads, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 1.0% [13]. - The average weight of pigs at slaughter has increased to 128.94 kg, with a week-on-week increase of 0.37 kg [35]. - The average price of piglets in March 2025 was 37.24 yuan/kg, with a year-on-year increase of 16% [18]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on pig farming companies with high output and cost recovery, specifically mentioning Muyuan Foods and Shennong Group, while also suggesting attention to Wens Foodstuff Group and Juxing Agriculture [3]. - For the post-cycle sector, the report suggests that the rebound in pig inventory will enhance demand for feed and animal health products, recommending Hai Da Group [3]. - In the planting chain, the report highlights investment opportunities in companies like Suqian Agricultural Development, Beidahuang, and Hainan Rubber due to strong grain prices [3].