Report Summary 1. Investment Rating There is no specific investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View The report indicates that the contradictions in the live - hog spot market continue to accumulate, and the market will experience short - term fluctuations [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Spot Prices**: The Henan spot price is 12,080 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 100 yuan/ton; the Sichuan spot price is 11,600 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 100 yuan/ton; the Guangdong spot price is 12,560 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 200 yuan/ton [1]. - **Futures Prices**: The prices of live - hog 2601, 2603, and 2605 are 11,955 yuan/ton, 11,555 yuan/ton, and 12,070 yuan/ton respectively, with year - on - year increases of 90 yuan/ton, 90 yuan/ton, and 65 yuan/ton [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of live - hog 2601 is 75,909 lots, a decrease of 642 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 130,519 lots, a decrease of 5,241 lots from the previous day; for live - hog 2603, the trading volume is 18,458 lots, an increase of 2,883 lots, and the open interest is 108,361 lots, a decrease of 797 lots; for live - hog 2605, the trading volume is 11,068 lots, an increase of 2,154 lots, and the open interest is 61,105 lots, an increase of 555 lots [1]. - **Basis and Spreads**: The basis of live - hog 2601, 2603, and 2605 are 125 yuan/ton, 525 yuan/ton, and 10 yuan/ton respectively, with year - on - year increases of 10 yuan/ton, 10 yuan/ton, and 35 yuan/ton; the 1 - 3 spread is 400 yuan/ton with no year - on - year change, and the 3 - 5 spread values are 0, - 515, 25, 400 yuan/ton [1][4]. 3.2 Market Information In September, the national feed production of the Feed Industry Association was 30.36 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 3.4% and a year - on - year increase of 5% [2]. 3.3 Trend Intensity The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral market sentiment. The range of trend intensity is an integer in the [-2, 2] interval, where - 2 represents the most bearish view and 2 represents the most bullish view [3].

Supply Side - The number of breeding sows is projected to be 40.42 million by the end of July 2025, exceeding the official normal level of 39 million, indicating a capacity in the green zone [2] - The breeding sow inventory has been gradually recovering since May 2024, suggesting an increase in pig supply starting in March 2025, with a 10-month lag in the market [2] - The current supply of pigs remains ample, leading to downward pressure on prices [2] Demand Side - The upcoming fourth quarter is traditionally a peak demand season, with factors such as lower temperatures, school procurement, and holiday preparations contributing to improved demand for pigs [4] - Higher slaughter profits typically indicate greater consumer acceptance of high-priced pork; however, current trends show low acceptance of high pork prices at the consumer level [4] Market Outlook - Despite a potential demand improvement in the fourth quarter, the high breeding sow inventory suggests continued supply abundance, limiting price increases [6] - The price difference between fresh and frozen pork products is at a historical low, and low storage costs have not led to significant demand for frozen products, further constraining overall demand for pigs [6] - The overall market fundamentals for pigs remain loose, with limited upward price potential expected in the fourth quarter [6]

Group 1: Investment Rating - There is no information about the investment rating of the industry in the report. Group 2: Core Views - Today, pig prices across the country continued to decline. After the previous price increase, the market's enthusiasm for slaughter improved, and the supply shortage eased. The overall supply of pigs remained relatively sufficient due to the large supply of heavy - weight pigs. Scale enterprises may face certain slaughter pressure, and ordinary farmers showed some resistance to low prices. The short - term supply shortage improved, and due to the high pig inventory, the subsequent supply pressure still exists, so the upward space for spot prices is limited, and there is still a certain downward pressure. [3][6] - Today, the pig futures market declined. Market rumors about a high - quality development meeting of the pig industry chain had a limited impact. The market then returned to stability. Due to the existing inventory and production pressure, the short - term adjustment space for supply is limited, and the price increase space is also relatively limited. Futures price increases are driven by events and valuation corrections, so there is support on the futures market, but the upward space for far - month contracts is also limited. [6] Group 3: Summary by Category 1. Spot Price - Today, the average spot price of pigs was 13.32 yuan/kg, down 0.12 yuan/kg from yesterday. Prices in various regions all showed a downward trend, with a decline range from 0.03 yuan/kg to 0.2 yuan/kg. [3] 2. Futures Price - Among futures contracts, LH01 was 14550 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan; LH03 was 13730 yuan/ton, up 155 yuan; LH05 was 14210 yuan/ton, up 360 yuan; LH07 remained unchanged at 14010 yuan/ton; LH09 was 14365 yuan/ton, down 225 yuan; LH11 was 14210 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan. [3] 3. Sow/Piglet Price - This week, the piglet price remained at 440 yuan, and the sow price remained at 1628 yuan, both unchanged from last week. [3] 4. Spot Breeding Profit - The self - breeding and self - raising profit was 90.89 yuan/head, down 42.99 yuan from yesterday; the profit from purchasing piglets was - 18.66 yuan/head, down 50.26 yuan from yesterday. [3] 5. Slaughter End - Yesterday's slaughter volume was 133568 heads, and today it was 134538 heads, an increase of 970 heads. The price differences between different - sized pigs remained relatively stable. [3] 6. Contract Spread - LH7 - 9 was - 355, up 225 from yesterday; LH9 - 1 was - 185, down 135 from yesterday; LH9 - 11 was 155, down 135 from yesterday; LH11 - 1 remained unchanged at - 340. [3] 7. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Wait and see. - Arbitrage: LH91 reverse arbitrage. - Options: Wait and see. [7]