Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View of the Report - The report predicts that the hog price will experience a weak and volatile adjustment. By December, hog slaughter volume may increase monthly, and with sufficient supply, there is limited potential for a significant rise in hog prices. The price difference between 150Kg and standard hogs has stabilized and rebounded, which may weaken the willingness of individual farmers to reduce weight and provide some support for hog prices. If the price weakness persists, a negative cycle may form, and if this occurs, the hog price is expected to rebound at the end of the year. Consider conducting a reverse spread on the 11 - 01 contracts at an appropriate time (for reference only) [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Overview - On October 9, there were 0 registered hog warehouse receipts. The short - term spot market lacks upward momentum, and attention should be paid to when the spot market shows oversold signals. On the same day, the LH2511 hog futures contract reduced its position by 2,769 lots, with an open interest of approximately 58,300 lots. The highest price was 11,905 yuan/ton, the lowest was 11,535 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 11,595 yuan/ton [2]. - From October 9 to September 30, the national average hog slaughter price dropped from 11.61 yuan/kg to 11.46 yuan/kg, a decrease of 1.29%. In Henan, it dropped from 11.71 yuan/kg to 11.31 yuan/kg, a decrease of 3.42%. In Sichuan, it dropped from 11.27 yuan/kg to 11.17 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.89%. The prices of various futures contracts also declined, with the 11 - contract dropping by 6.15%. The main basis in Henan decreased by 200% [5]. Fundamental Analysis - In terms of the number of fertile sows, the hog supply in the fourth quarter may be similar to that in the third quarter. Based on piglet data, the hog slaughter volume in the third and fourth quarters of 2025 will generally increase. In terms of demand, consumption in the second half of the year is better than that in the first half [2]. - Historically, the fat - to - standard price difference may strengthen in a volatile manner [2]. - The short - side logic in the market includes: the slaughter weight has not decreased, the "inventory" pressure has not been fully released; the subsequent slaughter volume remains high; September and October are not periods of large consumption increases, so demand has limited support for hog prices. The long - side logic includes: farmers have started to reduce weight, which is beneficial for the future market; consumption is expected to gradually improve after the weather turns cold; although there will be an increase in subsequent slaughter volume, the increase is limited [2]. Strategy Suggestions - The report suggests a weak and volatile adjustment. The core logic is that based on sow and piglet data, hog slaughter volume may increase monthly until December, making it difficult for hog prices to rise significantly. The price difference between 150Kg and standard hogs is expected to continue strengthening seasonally, which will weaken farmers' willingness to reduce weight and support hog prices. If the price weakness persists, a negative cycle may form, and if it does, the hog price is expected to rebound at the end of the year. Consider conducting a reverse spread on the 11 - 01 contracts at an appropriate time (for reference only) [3].

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a daily report on the hog market dated September 15, 2025, focusing on the current supply - demand situation and price trends of hogs [2] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - The hog spot price is under pressure in the medium - term due to large supplies, but has short - term support. Futures prices are expected to be under pressure and may trend downward [2][4] Group 4: Summary by Content Spot Market - Hog spot prices across the country are falling. Large - scale enterprises' hog slaughter volume remains high, and overall supply pressure persists. Small - scale farmers' slaughter enthusiasm has decreased, and secondary fattening may increase as prices stabilize [2] - The average spot price dropped from 13.29 yuan/kg yesterday to 13.01 yuan/kg today. The price of piglets decreased from 294 yuan to 291 yuan, while the sow price remained at 1592 yuan [2] - Self - breeding and self - raising profit decreased from 32.24 yuan/head to 16.84 yuan/head, and the profit of purchasing piglets for fattening decreased from - 148.41 yuan/head to - 161.93 yuan/head [2] Futures Market - Futures prices are fluctuating slightly. The market considers the potential positive impact of an upcoming livestock and veterinary bureau meeting. The far - month contracts are affected by capacity changes, and there is some price support [4] - LH01 rose by 5 yuan to 13745 yuan, LH03 fell by 15 yuan to 13045 yuan, and so on [2] Trading Strategies - For single - side trading, short near - month contracts on rallies. For arbitrage, conduct an LH15 reverse spread. For options, buy far - month call options [5] Slaughter and Pig Size Spread - The daily slaughter volume decreased by 590 heads to 148082 heads. The price spread between different pig sizes has changed, with the large - pig to standard - pig spread increasing from 0.21 yuan/kg to 0.29 yuan/kg [2]

Report Overview - Report Date: August 29, 2025 [1] - Report Type: Pig Daily Report - Author: Shi Xiangying [5] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The pig price is expected to fluctuate and adjust [4] - From the data of sows and piglets, the pig slaughter volume may increase monthly until December, and it's difficult for pig prices to rise significantly under abundant supply [4] - The price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs has stabilized and rebounded, which may weaken the willingness of retail farmers to reduce weight and support pig prices to some extent [4] - If farmers continue to reduce weight or keep the weight stable, the pig price may fluctuate and adjust, which is beneficial to the November contract. It is recommended to wait and see for now [4] Summary by Directory 1. Market Dynamics - On August 28, the registered warehouse receipts of live pigs were 430 lots [2] - The short - term spot price has limited room for further decline, and attention should be paid to the extent of further weight reduction of live pigs [2] - The main contract of live pigs (LH2511) increased its position by 3,370 lots today, with a position of about 75,000 lots. The highest price was 13,750 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 13,570 yuan/ton, and it closed at 13,590 yuan/ton [2] 2. Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the inventory of reproductive sows, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase monthly from March to December, but the increase is limited. From the piglet data, the slaughter volume of live pigs will increase overall in the third and fourth quarters of 2025. On the demand side, the consumption in the second half of the year is better than that in the first half [3] - Historically, the fat - standard price difference may fluctuate and strengthen [3] - The short - side logic includes slow and difficult weight reduction by farmers, incomplete release of supply pressure, continuous increase in subsequent slaughter volume, and limited support of demand for pig prices as the third quarter is not the peak consumption season. The long - side logic includes that farmers have reduced weight, which is beneficial to the future market; the strong resilience of spot prices indicates that the supply - demand situation is not as loose as the short - side thinks; the subsequent increase in slaughter volume is limited, and the third and fourth quarters are gradually entering the peak consumption season of live pigs [3] 3. Strategy Suggestion - The view is that the market will fluctuate and adjust [4] - The core logic is based on sow and piglet data, the pig slaughter volume may increase monthly until December, making it difficult for pig prices to rise significantly; the price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs is expected to continue to strengthen, which will weaken farmers' willingness to reduce weight and support pig prices; if farmers continue to reduce weight or keep the weight stable, the pig price may fluctuate and adjust, which is beneficial to the November contract. It is recommended to wait and see for now [4] 4. Market Overview - The national average pig slaughter price on August 28 was 13.62 yuan/kg, up 0.02 yuan/kg or 0.15% from the previous day. The slaughter prices in Henan and Sichuan were 13.73 yuan/kg (up 0.05 yuan/kg or 0.37%) and 13.35 yuan/kg (down 0.11 yuan/kg or - 0.82%) respectively [6] - Futures prices of various contracts generally declined. For example, the 01 contract was 13,940 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan/ton or - 0.99% [6] - The main basis in Henan was 140 yuan/ton, up 205 yuan/ton or 315.38% from the previous day [6] 5. Key Data Tracking - It shows the closing prices of futures contracts in the past 180 days, the basis of the main live - pig contract in Henan, the price differences between different contracts, etc. [14]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View of the Report The report predicts that the pig price will experience a period of oscillatory adjustment. The supply of pigs is expected to be abundant, which makes it difficult for the price to rise significantly. However, the price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs is expected to strengthen seasonally, providing some support to the pig price. If the farming sector continues to reduce the weight of pigs or keeps the weight stable, the pig price may adjust weakly in an oscillatory manner. For the 09 contract, which has a large premium over the spot price, a light - short position can be considered, but risk prevention is necessary due to the significant influence of macro - sentiment on commodities [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Dynamics - On July 23, there were 284 registered pig futures warehouse receipts. The short - term spot price has limited room for further decline, and attention should be paid to whether the weight of pigs will continue to decrease. The main contract (LH2509) increased in price with increased positions due to positive macro - sentiment, with a position of about 67,300 lots, a maximum price of 15,150 yuan/ton, a minimum price of 14,400 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 14,590 yuan/ton [1]. 2. Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the number of breeding sows, the supply of pigs is expected to increase monthly from March to December, but the increase is limited. According to the piglet data, the number of pig slaughterings will increase overall in the second and third quarters of 2025. The consumption in the second half of the year is better than that in the first half. Historically, the price difference between fat and standard pigs may strengthen in an oscillatory manner. The bearish logic in the market includes slow and difficult weight - reduction in the farming sector, continuous increase in subsequent slaughterings, and limited support from demand as the third quarter is not the peak consumption season. The bullish logic includes the potential increase in frozen product inventory, strong resilience of the spot price, and limited increase in subsequent slaughterings along with the approaching of the peak consumption season in the third and fourth quarters [2]. 3. Strategy Suggestion - The view is oscillatory adjustment. The core logic is that based on sow and piglet data, the number of pig slaughterings may increase monthly until December, making it difficult for the pig price to rise significantly under abundant supply. The price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs has stabilized and rebounded, which may weaken the willingness of individual farmers to reduce weight and support the pig price. If the farming sector continues to reduce weight or keeps the weight stable, the pig price may adjust weakly in an oscillatory manner. For the 09 contract with a large premium over the spot price, a light - short position can be considered, but risk prevention is needed [3]. 4. Market Overview - On July 23, the national average pig slaughter price was 14.22 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.13 yuan/kg or 0.91% compared to the previous day. In Henan, it was 14.33 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.15 yuan/kg or 1.04%. In Sichuan, it was 13.47 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.1 yuan/kg or 0.74%. Among the futures prices, most contracts showed an increase, with the 01 contract rising by 2.45%, the 03 contract by 2.03%, the 05 contract by 1.88%, the 09 contract by 1.46%, and the 11 contract by 2.44%. The 07 contract remained unchanged. The main basis in Henan decreased by 360 yuan/ton or 360% [5]. 5. Key Data Tracking - The report provides data on the closing prices of futures contracts in the past 180 days, the basis of the main pig contract in the Henan region, the price difference between the 09 - 11 contracts, and the price difference between the 11 - 01 contracts [13].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The live pig spot price will fluctuate and adjust. The group's adjustment of slaughter volume has a significant impact on the price during the off - season. Although the downstream demand is weak and difficult to bear the supply pressure, the retail end has a sentiment of hoarding, the secondary fattening group actively replenishes stocks, and the policy of continuous state reserve purchases is expected, so the spot price turns stronger again [3]. - In the futures market, the LH2509 contract price is expected to have a long - term de - stocking process. Pay attention to the mid - line spread structure switching to the reverse spread market and set stop - profit and stop - loss points. The short - term support level of the LH2509 contract is 13,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 14,500 yuan/ton [4]. 3. Summary by Directory This Week's Market Review (6.9 - 6.15) - **Spot Market**: The live pig price fluctuated and adjusted. The price of 20KG piglets in Henan was 39.1 yuan/kg (last week: 41.6 yuan/kg), the live pig price in Henan this week was 14.08 yuan/kg (last week: 14 yuan/kg), and the price of 50KG binary sows nationwide was 1,621 yuan/head (last week: 1,631 yuan/head). The average national slaughter weight was 125.76KG (last week: 126KG), with a month - on - month decrease of 0.19%. The supply side has limited incremental amplitude from groups, and retail farmers still have a sentiment of hoarding. The post - holiday market demand shows a seasonal decline, and the rising temperature further suppresses the demand increment, while the demand for secondary fattening replenishment is strong [1]. - **Futures Market**: The live pig futures price showed a strong - side fluctuation. The highest price of the LH2509 contract this week was 13,840 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 13,350 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 13,790 yuan/ton (last week: 13,460 yuan/ton). The basis of the LH2509 contract was 290 yuan/ton (last week: 540 yuan/ton) [2]. Next Week's Market Outlook (6.16 - 6.22) - **Spot Market**: The live pig spot price will fluctuate and adjust. The group's slaughter adjustment has a great impact on the price during the off - season. Although the downstream demand is weak, the retail end has a hoarding sentiment, the secondary fattening group actively replenishes stocks, and the policy of continuous state reserve purchases is expected, so the price turns stronger again. The supply has accelerated inventory accumulation, and the group's slaughter progress is in line with the plan. The incremental slaughter in the second quarter is limited, and the incremental slaughter in the third quarter will be more obvious. The demand is in the off - season, and the downstream support may be limited. The policy of secondary fattening sales has tightened, and the active incremental inventory accumulation drive is limited, but the state reserve purchase policy provides support [3]. - **Futures Market**: The LH2509 contract price has a long - term de - stocking process. Pay attention to the mid - line spread structure switching to the reverse spread market and set stop - profit and stop - loss points. The short - term support level is 13,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 14,500 yuan/ton [4]. Other Data - **Basis and Monthly Spread**: This week's basis was 290 yuan/ton; the LH2507 - LH2509 monthly spread was - 495 yuan/ton [9]. - **Supply**: This week's average weight was 125.76KG (last week: 126KG). In April, the pork output was 5.268 billion tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.7%; the pork import volume was 805,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.8% [12].