Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View of the Report The report predicts that the pig price will experience a period of oscillatory adjustment. The supply of pigs is expected to be abundant, which makes it difficult for the price to rise significantly. However, the price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs is expected to strengthen seasonally, providing some support to the pig price. If the farming sector continues to reduce the weight of pigs or keeps the weight stable, the pig price may adjust weakly in an oscillatory manner. For the 09 contract, which has a large premium over the spot price, a light - short position can be considered, but risk prevention is necessary due to the significant influence of macro - sentiment on commodities [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Dynamics - On July 23, there were 284 registered pig futures warehouse receipts. The short - term spot price has limited room for further decline, and attention should be paid to whether the weight of pigs will continue to decrease. The main contract (LH2509) increased in price with increased positions due to positive macro - sentiment, with a position of about 67,300 lots, a maximum price of 15,150 yuan/ton, a minimum price of 14,400 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 14,590 yuan/ton [1]. 2. Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the number of breeding sows, the supply of pigs is expected to increase monthly from March to December, but the increase is limited. According to the piglet data, the number of pig slaughterings will increase overall in the second and third quarters of 2025. The consumption in the second half of the year is better than that in the first half. Historically, the price difference between fat and standard pigs may strengthen in an oscillatory manner. The bearish logic in the market includes slow and difficult weight - reduction in the farming sector, continuous increase in subsequent slaughterings, and limited support from demand as the third quarter is not the peak consumption season. The bullish logic includes the potential increase in frozen product inventory, strong resilience of the spot price, and limited increase in subsequent slaughterings along with the approaching of the peak consumption season in the third and fourth quarters [2]. 3. Strategy Suggestion - The view is oscillatory adjustment. The core logic is that based on sow and piglet data, the number of pig slaughterings may increase monthly until December, making it difficult for the pig price to rise significantly under abundant supply. The price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs has stabilized and rebounded, which may weaken the willingness of individual farmers to reduce weight and support the pig price. If the farming sector continues to reduce weight or keeps the weight stable, the pig price may adjust weakly in an oscillatory manner. For the 09 contract with a large premium over the spot price, a light - short position can be considered, but risk prevention is needed [3]. 4. Market Overview - On July 23, the national average pig slaughter price was 14.22 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.13 yuan/kg or 0.91% compared to the previous day. In Henan, it was 14.33 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.15 yuan/kg or 1.04%. In Sichuan, it was 13.47 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.1 yuan/kg or 0.74%. Among the futures prices, most contracts showed an increase, with the 01 contract rising by 2.45%, the 03 contract by 2.03%, the 05 contract by 1.88%, the 09 contract by 1.46%, and the 11 contract by 2.44%. The 07 contract remained unchanged. The main basis in Henan decreased by 360 yuan/ton or 360% [5]. 5. Key Data Tracking - The report provides data on the closing prices of futures contracts in the past 180 days, the basis of the main pig contract in the Henan region, the price difference between the 09 - 11 contracts, and the price difference between the 11 - 01 contracts [13].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The live pig spot price will fluctuate and adjust. The group's adjustment of slaughter volume has a significant impact on the price during the off - season. Although the downstream demand is weak and difficult to bear the supply pressure, the retail end has a sentiment of hoarding, the secondary fattening group actively replenishes stocks, and the policy of continuous state reserve purchases is expected, so the spot price turns stronger again [3]. - In the futures market, the LH2509 contract price is expected to have a long - term de - stocking process. Pay attention to the mid - line spread structure switching to the reverse spread market and set stop - profit and stop - loss points. The short - term support level of the LH2509 contract is 13,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 14,500 yuan/ton [4]. 3. Summary by Directory This Week's Market Review (6.9 - 6.15) - **Spot Market**: The live pig price fluctuated and adjusted. The price of 20KG piglets in Henan was 39.1 yuan/kg (last week: 41.6 yuan/kg), the live pig price in Henan this week was 14.08 yuan/kg (last week: 14 yuan/kg), and the price of 50KG binary sows nationwide was 1,621 yuan/head (last week: 1,631 yuan/head). The average national slaughter weight was 125.76KG (last week: 126KG), with a month - on - month decrease of 0.19%. The supply side has limited incremental amplitude from groups, and retail farmers still have a sentiment of hoarding. The post - holiday market demand shows a seasonal decline, and the rising temperature further suppresses the demand increment, while the demand for secondary fattening replenishment is strong [1]. - **Futures Market**: The live pig futures price showed a strong - side fluctuation. The highest price of the LH2509 contract this week was 13,840 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 13,350 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 13,790 yuan/ton (last week: 13,460 yuan/ton). The basis of the LH2509 contract was 290 yuan/ton (last week: 540 yuan/ton) [2]. Next Week's Market Outlook (6.16 - 6.22) - **Spot Market**: The live pig spot price will fluctuate and adjust. The group's slaughter adjustment has a great impact on the price during the off - season. Although the downstream demand is weak, the retail end has a hoarding sentiment, the secondary fattening group actively replenishes stocks, and the policy of continuous state reserve purchases is expected, so the price turns stronger again. The supply has accelerated inventory accumulation, and the group's slaughter progress is in line with the plan. The incremental slaughter in the second quarter is limited, and the incremental slaughter in the third quarter will be more obvious. The demand is in the off - season, and the downstream support may be limited. The policy of secondary fattening sales has tightened, and the active incremental inventory accumulation drive is limited, but the state reserve purchase policy provides support [3]. - **Futures Market**: The LH2509 contract price has a long - term de - stocking process. Pay attention to the mid - line spread structure switching to the reverse spread market and set stop - profit and stop - loss points. The short - term support level is 13,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 14,500 yuan/ton [4]. Other Data - **Basis and Monthly Spread**: This week's basis was 290 yuan/ton; the LH2507 - LH2509 monthly spread was - 495 yuan/ton [9]. - **Supply**: This week's average weight was 125.76KG (last week: 126KG). In April, the pork output was 5.268 billion tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.7%; the pork import volume was 805,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.8% [12].