【一周一议】 首先，本周美国降息态度的变化影响风偏，一方面是流动性，一方面是海外国家的汇率预期。因此估值高、海外经济 有关的板块会先受干扰。这正是我们需要强调的，出海成长、科技成长都是长期主线，对出海而言，是寻找具备穿越 海外周期能力的标的、检验出海实力的关键时刻，对科技而言是加速国产技术、形成国产供应链内循环的机会。我们 继续看好出海、AI 新材料板块，本周港股上市的【乐舒适】，为出海板块再添一员，公司是东非、西非快消品（纸尿 裤、卫生巾）龙头，上游供应链+非洲本土制造+本土渠道渗透共同构建护城河，实控人同为【科达制造】子公司特福 国际董事长，随着乐舒适的正式上市，2 家公司出海非洲、南美洲的市场价值会被一同发掘。 第二，每当市场风偏减弱，会关注低估值或者低关注度的板块，例如传统建材和建筑，分红政策成为焦点。观察建材 公司在面临本行业空间萎缩后，不少做出第二曲线的选择，也存在减少资本开支提高分红的做法，例如（1）消费建材 板块，【三棵树】【兔宝宝】【悍高集团】【北新建材】等公司，积极下沉农村、外延扩张，面对家装渠道的外资地位、 通过产品+服务+营销的方式，逐步形成国产替代。我们强调消费建材是成长赛道，虽然短 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the increasing parenting costs and the government's initiatives to support families, with JD Group actively responding by launching innovative services to alleviate parenting pressures [1] Group 1: New Initiatives - JD Insurance, in collaboration with JD Supermarket, has launched a promotional campaign offering a free million-dollar medical insurance policy with the purchase of specific diaper brands, integrating essential baby products with health protection [2] - The medical insurance is designed for children aged 0-17, with a maximum coverage of 6 million yuan and a zero deductible, addressing the healthcare needs of families with frequent medical visits [2] Group 2: Membership Benefits - The "JD Diaper Mom Club" has been upgraded to enhance user experience, allowing certified mothers of children aged 0-2 to enjoy exclusive discounts and receive a free "first insurance" for newborns [3] - The initiative has successfully distributed over one million newborn gift packages, reflecting the popularity of these benefits among new parents [3] Group 3: Strategic Direction - JD Insurance's integration of insurance services into consumer scenarios represents a shift from traditional financial products to more accessible and user-friendly services [4] - The company aims to continue developing tailored insurance products across various life scenarios, including children's health, travel, and retirement, positioning itself as a reliable risk protector for JD users [4]

Core Viewpoint - The company is accelerating its offline store openings, reflecting the successful implementation of the 6th generation standardized store model, which features smaller store sizes, streamlined SKUs, differentiated products, and transparent sales mechanisms. This has led to increased online revenue and sustained growth in overall income [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q3, the company's revenue increased by 15% year-on-year, with improvements in both online and offline channels. The revenue for Q3 was 889 million, representing a 15.1% increase, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 6 million, up by 2.4%. The net profit excluding non-recurring items was 2 million, showing a significant increase of 121.8% [1]. - The offline channel saw a net increase of 29 stores quarter-on-quarter and 53 stores year-on-year, which is crucial for driving offline growth. Online self-operated sales improved significantly, while agency operations continued to grow rapidly. However, revenue from supplier services decreased [1]. - The company's net profit margin was 0.6%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin excluding non-recurring items was 0.2%, an increase of 1.1 percentage points year-on-year, indicating stable profitability [1]. Group 2: Strategic Initiatives - The company is successfully opening new Gundam bases, which are expected to create a second growth curve. The first Gundam base opened in Suzhou last year, and new stores in Changsha and Shenyang are set to open soon, benefiting from high consumer traffic in these cities [2]. - The collaboration with Bandai Namco is anticipated to strengthen the company's market position and contribute to long-term growth, especially considering the rising trend of the "Guzi economy" in China [2]. - The company is expected to return to an expansion phase in 2025, achieving steady growth, with projected net profits of 140 million and 180 million for 2025 and 2026, respectively. The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios for 2025 and 2026 are estimated to be 18x and 14x [2].

尼泊尔胶合板、卫生巾、纸尿裤、鞋类和水泥制造商近日表示，获取印度标准局认证的流程近期明显改 善，对印出口更加便利。这一变化源于今年1月尼印政府间委员会达成的共识，印度同意加快尼泊尔产 品的BIS认证流程。尼泊尔驻印度大使证实，目前认证效率已得到提升，大多数尼泊尔工厂能够更快获 得证书。此前，认证延迟是主要瓶颈。尼泊尔胶合板制造商协会主席表示，过去八个月行业面临严重延 误，而近一个月来企业已能按时收到证书。目前所有52家申请企业都有望获得认证。这一进展得益于尼 泊尔财政部长和驻印大使的积极推动，以及工商部长在双边会谈中的重点提议。其他行业同样受益。鞋 类、水泥、卫生巾和纸尿裤生产商均表示，认证流程明显改善，出口更加顺畅。数据显示，上一财年尼 泊尔对印出口胶合板70.9亿卢比、鞋类20.4亿卢比、水泥22.1亿卢比、卫生巾和纸尿裤3.56亿卢比。尼印 双边贸易总额达12.9万亿卢比。 ...

Group 1: Core Insights - The North American personal care market is experiencing intensified competition, with Procter & Gamble showing better profitability compared to revenue, while Kimberly-Clark is seeing efficiency improvements from its transformation efforts [1][2] - In the domestic market, upstream supply chain companies such as Yanjian, Jieya, and Nuobang have reported significant revenue growth of 17%, 107%, and 23% respectively, indicating a recovery in overseas orders [1][3] Group 2: Company Performance - Procter & Gamble reported global revenue of $22.39 billion and net profit of $4.75 billion for FY26Q1, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3% and 20% respectively, with challenges in the North American market [2] - Kimberly-Clark's Q3 revenue reached $4.15 billion, with a net profit of $450 million, showing a slight revenue increase but a significant decline in net profit due to transformation costs [2] Group 3: Market Trends - The domestic personal care market is facing fierce competition, leading to increased sales expenses and weaker profit growth compared to revenue for many companies [3] - The upgrade of global disposable hygiene materials is accelerating, with a shift from internal competition to external expansion, particularly in the non-woven fabric supply chain [4] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - Companies with established global supply chain layouts, such as Yanjian, are recommended for investment due to the ongoing upgrade trend in overseas hygiene products [4] - Jieya is expected to benefit from increased orders in its wet wipes business, while Sturdy Medical is noted for its stable profitability amid diverse business growth [4]

近日，被誉为"非洲纸尿裤大王"的乐舒适（股票代码：02698.HK） 正式在香港联合交易所主板挂牌交易。 01 年入30亿，在香港IPO成功 这场爆火的背后，是一段长达15年的非洲深耕之路，更是中国品牌出海新兴市场的典型范本。而 "品牌化"与 "本土化"，正是其一路闯关的两大核心密 码。 "在非洲，每卖出5片纸尿裤，就有1片来自乐舒适。" 信息瞬间点燃资本市场，上市首日，乐舒适开盘价报34.98港元，较发行价26.20港元大幅高开33.5%，市值一度逼近200亿港元，虽次日股价回调为30.86港 元，但市值仍超186亿港元。 这句话并非夸大，乐舒适在非洲市场的地位确实令人瞩目。据弗若斯特沙利文数据，2024年销量乐舒适在非洲婴儿纸尿裤和卫生巾市场均排名第一，市场 份额分别为20.3%及15.6%。 回顾乐舒适的起家历程，从一开始就找准了核心方向。 2009年，凭借在非洲市场积累的实战经验，创始人精准锚定当地卫生用品的发展潜力，决心跳出同质化竞争，从打造自有品牌切入。 同年，首个婴儿纸尿裤品牌Softcare在加纳正式推出，凭借贴合本地需求的定位快速打开市场；后陆续推出针对年轻妈妈群体的品牌Maya、Veesp ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the light industry manufacturing sector [3][5]. Core Insights - The report highlights the upcoming IPO of LeShuShi, a leading brand in Africa's sanitary products market, with a projected market cap of approximately 15.9 billion HKD [5]. - The report emphasizes the potential of the African market for baby diapers and sanitary napkins, with a market size of 2.59 billion USD and 850 million USD respectively in 2024, and a penetration rate significantly lower than mature markets [5]. - The report discusses the "anti-involution" measures in the caprolactam industry, suggesting a 20% production cut and a price increase of 100 CNY per ton, recommending attention to Taihua New Materials [5]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The light industry manufacturing index increased by 1.09% from November 3 to November 7, 2025, ranking 8th among 28 industries [10]. - The textile and apparel index rose by 0.8%, ranking 11th among the same industries [10]. Key Company Insights - LeShuShi is expected to list on November 10, 2025, with an issue price of 26.2 HKD per share, capturing significant market share in Africa [5]. - The report recommends focusing on companies like Jingyuan International and Huayi Group, which are expected to improve their market share and profitability [5]. Industry Trends - The report notes a significant upgrade in global disposable sanitary materials, suggesting a shift from "involution" to "outvolution" in manufacturing [5]. - It highlights the importance of local production and supply chain integration in the African market, where LeShuShi has established a strong presence [5]. Financial Performance - The report provides financial projections for key companies, including expected EPS and PE ratios for 2023 to 2027, indicating growth potential [3][5]. - It mentions the expected revenue and net profit for LeShuShi in 2024 to be 450 million USD and 95 million USD respectively, with a gross margin of 35.2% [5].

Core Insights - The Chinese absorbent hygiene products industry is currently driven by dual forces of policy regulation and consumer upgrade, with a focus on product quality and safety [1][8][29] Industry Overview - The absorbent hygiene products are defined as disposable items that come into direct contact with the human body, primarily made from materials like fluff pulp, non-woven fabric, and superabsorbent polymers [5][23] - The product categories include female hygiene products, baby care products, adult incontinence products, and other special-purpose items [5][6] Market Dynamics - Female consumers remain the dominant force in the market, while the adult incontinence products segment shows significant growth potential, with some companies already leading in this area [1][8] - The market size for absorbent hygiene products is projected to grow from 1127 billion yuan in 2020 to 1321.3 billion yuan by 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.7% [17][13] Regulatory Environment - New national standards will be implemented in 2025, covering hygiene requirements, odor evaluation, and production monitoring, which will enhance product quality and safety [1][10][29] - The new standards address previous regulatory gaps and aim to improve consumer safety, especially in sensitive product categories like sanitary napkins and diapers [8][29] Consumer Trends - There is a growing awareness among consumers regarding health and safety, leading brands to innovate and upscale their products [1][27] - The female hygiene products market is expected to grow from 563 billion yuan in 2018 to 867.1 billion yuan by 2024, with a CAGR of 7.5% [27][28] Competitive Landscape - The market is witnessing a transformation with foreign brands focusing on existing markets while domestic brands and new entrants are rapidly gaining market share through innovation and targeted marketing [40] - The concentration ratio (CR10) of female hygiene products is decreasing, indicating a shift towards a more competitive landscape with rising domestic brands [40][33]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of price control measures implemented by e-commerce platforms, particularly during the "Double Eleven" shopping festival, which restricts merchants' pricing strategies and affects consumer purchasing behavior [1][5][9]. Group 1: E-commerce Platform Dynamics - E-commerce platforms like JD.com are enforcing "lowest price" policies, requiring brands to maintain uniform pricing across platforms, which limits competition and creates challenges for merchants [1][4]. - The "Double Eleven" shopping festival has evolved from a simple discount day to a complex event that significantly influences consumer habits and business operations, becoming the largest shopping festival globally [3][4]. - The current phase of the festival emphasizes brand value and user experience rather than just gross merchandise volume (GMV), reflecting a shift in focus amid regulatory scrutiny [4][8]. Group 2: Merchant Challenges - Merchants face a dilemma due to price constraints imposed by platforms, which can lead to penalties for non-compliance, effectively binding them to platform demands [4][5]. - Many brands are heavily reliant on specific platforms for sales, making it difficult to resist pricing pressures despite potential disagreements [4][6]. - The practice of price control is seen as a "business shackle" that stifles innovation and competitiveness among merchants [4][5]. Group 3: Consumer Impact - Consumers are losing their ability to compare prices effectively, as platforms enforce uniform pricing, leading to a perception that promotional events lack genuine discounts [6][9]. - The homogenization of prices across platforms diminishes the excitement and value traditionally associated with shopping festivals like "Double Eleven" [6][9]. - The article highlights concerns that such practices may violate legal standards regarding fair competition, as established in previous antitrust cases [6][7]. Group 4: Industry Recommendations - Experts advocate for a return to fair competition, urging platforms to allow merchants greater autonomy in pricing and promotional strategies to foster a healthier market environment [7][8]. - Regulatory bodies are encouraged to strengthen enforcement against anti-competitive practices, ensuring that platforms do not impose unfair pricing constraints on merchants [8][9]. - The focus should shift back to enhancing consumer experience and operational efficiency rather than relying on restrictive measures to maintain market share [8][9].

Core Points - The stock price of Baiya Co., Ltd. has declined for five consecutive days, with a total drop of 6.41% during this period, currently trading at 22.18 yuan per share [1] - Baiya Co., Ltd. is a well-known comprehensive enterprise in the disposable hygiene products industry in China, with its main business revenue composition being 95.67% from sanitary napkins, 2.20% from ODM, and 2.13% from diapers [1] Shareholder Analysis - Xingsheng Global Fund's fund, Xingsheng Global Xinyue Mixed A (017826), is among the top ten circulating shareholders of Baiya Co., Ltd., having increased its holdings by 1.1026 million shares in the third quarter, now holding 6.9154 million shares, accounting for 1.61% of circulating shares [2] - The fund has incurred a floating loss of approximately 1.2448 million yuan today and a total floating loss of 10.5113 million yuan during the five-day decline [2] Fund Performance - Xingsheng Global Xinyue Mixed A (017826) has Baiya Co., Ltd. as its third-largest heavy stock, with 8.17% of the fund's net value invested in it [3] - The fund was established on March 17, 2023, with a current scale of 1.869 billion yuan, and has achieved a year-to-date return of 7.94% [2]