1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for methanol is "oscillating with a slight upward bias" [2] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term methanol investment will be mainly oscillating, supported by reduced imports and the expectation of tight supply - demand balance. High port inventory but increasing de - stocking expectations, stable coal prices providing cost support, and geopolitical sentiment enhancing market resilience. The core price range is expected to be 2200 - 2300 yuan/ton [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Supply - This week, methanol supply contracted overall, affected by both import and domestic production adjustments. Import volume decreased significantly, and although domestic capacity utilization increased slightly, total output declined due to new maintenance and production cuts in some plants. Next period, supply is expected to recover as more plants plan to resume production and there will be fewer maintenance and production cuts. Different production processes have different operating rates, with coal - based methanol operation relatively stable and natural - gas - based processes fluctuating slightly [2] Demand - This week, methanol demand remained weak in the off - season, showing significant structural differentiation. Total consumption decreased slightly week - on - week, lacking an upward driver. The main downstream methanol - to - olefins (MTO) industry was mediocre, with regional differences in operating rates. Traditional downstream industries generally had weak demand, with most industries' loads declining. In the short term, the demand side will remain weak and needs the resumption of downstream plants, the release of terminal demand, or favorable policies [2] Inventory - This week, methanol inventory increased at a high level, and the pressure to reduce inventory has not been alleviated. Inland enterprise inventory has been increasing for four weeks, and port inventory also rose. Although the unloading of foreign vessels was smooth, the提货 volume in some warehouses decreased. Overall, the current inventory is at a high level, and the supply - demand contradiction has eased but not fundamentally improved [2] Methanol Profit - This week, the profits of methanol and its downstream industrial chain showed obvious differentiation. Methanol - end profits improved slightly, while most downstream industries were still under pressure. The losses of coal - based and natural - gas - based methanol production processes narrowed, and only the profit of coke - oven - gas - based production decreased slightly but remained profitable. Most downstream industries saw increased losses, and only a few products like glacial acetic acid and MTBE had improved profits [2] Politics - This week, the political situation in Iran was tense both domestically and internationally. Domestically, there were sporadic demonstrations due to rising prices and currency depreciation, and the situation was gradually stabilizing. Internationally, the US and Israel were accused of interfering in Iran's internal affairs, and Iran's military, president, and permanent representative to the UN strongly responded [2] Trading Strategy - For unilateral trading, the strategy is "oscillating with a slight upward bias"; for arbitrage, it is to "wait and see". Key factors to watch include downstream demand, olefin procurement, spring maintenance, and geopolitics [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The current situation in the Middle East is complex and changing rapidly. The uncertainty brings significant risks, so short - term investors are advised to take a wait - and - see approach (View Score: 0) [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price and Basis - **Futures Prices**: On June 16, 2025, compared with June 13, 2025, MA01 in Taicang was 2464 yuan/ton, up 41 yuan/ton or 1.69%; MA01 in Shandong was 2587.5 yuan/ton, up 105 yuan/ton or 4.23%; MA05 was 2395 yuan/ton, up 43 yuan/ton or 1.83%; MA09 was 2464 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan/ton or 3.14% [1] - **Spot Prices**: In Guangdong, it was 2490 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan/ton or 3.32%; in Shaanxi, it was 2100 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan/ton or 3.70%; in Sichuan and Chongqing, it was 2300 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton or 2.22%; in Hubei and Inner Mongolia, there was no change [1] - **Basis**: The basis of Taicang spot - MA was 123.5 yuan/ton, up 64 yuan/ton [1] 3.2 Cost and Profit - **Cost**: Coal and industrial natural gas prices remained unchanged. For example, Ordos Q5500 coal was 422.5 yuan/ton, and the industrial natural gas price in Hohhot was 3.94 yuan/cubic meter [1] - **Profit**: Coal - based methanol profit was 359.7 yuan/ton, unchanged; natural gas - based methanol profit was - 570 yuan/ton, unchanged. Northwest MTO profit was 500.4 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton or 13.62%; East China MTO profit was - 1173.57 yuan/ton, down 261 yuan/ton or - 28.60%. Downstream profits: acetic acid profit was 358.97 yuan/ton, down 43.25 yuan/ton or - 10.75%; MTBE profit was 126.36 yuan/ton, down 227.2 yuan/ton or - 64.26%; formaldehyde profit was - 205.2 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton or 4.65%; dimethyl ether profit was 714 yuan/ton, unchanged [1] 3.3 Important Information - **Domestic**: The main methanol contract MA2509 fluctuated and rose, opening at 2400 yuan/ton, closing at 2464 yuan/ton, up 86 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 2593632 lots and an open interest of 820104, showing increased volume and open interest [1] - **Foreign**: Currently, 11 methanol plants with a total capacity of 17.16 million tons in a Middle Eastern country are operating at a low load, and ports such as Asaluyeh are operating normally [1] 3.4 Trading Strategy - The previous trading day, MA first rose and then fell, closing at 2417 at night. Relevant news last night indicated that Iran was preparing to abandon uranium enrichment for negotiations, causing oil prices to fall from high levels and methanol to decline synchronously. However, this morning, Arab media denied the news, and Trump called on people to leave Tehran again, causing oil prices to rise again in the short term. Due to the complex and rapidly changing Middle East situation, short - term wait - and - see is recommended [1]