供应方面，2026年新投产能大部分有配套下游，实际投放量不大，国内投产压力进一步放缓。关注季节 性检修对开工率及产量的影响。需求方面，2026年外购甲醇烯烃装置有较明显需求增长，传统下游的新 增产能也将为甲醇带来确定性的需求增量。供需格局或有一定程度改善。2026年甲醇价格或仍呈季节性 波动：上半年进口压力较小，价格有回升可能；下半年面临较大进口压力，价格或震荡下行。 产能持续增长，一体化项目为主 2026年若煤端政策依旧趋严，煤炭中枢上移，煤价偏强或使得甲醇成本中枢走高，但利润或有下行压 力，关注煤端开工变化及下游需求力度。焦炉气作为炼焦过程中产生的副产品，利润表现尚可。天然气 制甲醇成本波动不大，利润依旧较差。在"反内卷"、碳排放总量和强度双控制度背景下，煤炭将企稳， 甲醇成本中枢或有上移。 据隆众资讯统计，截至2025年11月底，国内甲醇产能基数达10804.5万吨，较2024年年底增加约518万 吨，年增速为5%。 一体化项目成为新增产能的绝对主力。2025年新增产能中，约70%为配套下游（MTO、BDO等）的一 体化项目。主要项目包括：宝丰能源三期280万吨／年（配套MTO）、新疆中泰100万吨／年 ...

国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2026-01-12 卢钊毅 从业资格证号：F3171622 投资咨询证号：Z0021177 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 | | 甲醇：卸货顺畅后累库，地缘风险持续加剧 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | 供给 | 中性 | 本周甲醇供应呈整体收缩态势，核心受进口与国产端双重调整影响。进口量显著缩减，成为供应收缩的主要推手；国产方面，虽产能利用率有小幅提升，但受部分装置新增检修、减产影 | | | | 响，总产量略有回落（主要原因：剔除了177万吨的失效产能）。装置动态呈现分化，新增检修与减产装置带来的产量损失，超过了恢复装置的产出补充，不过下期计划恢复装置增多，检 | | | | 修减产减少，供应有望回升。不同生产工艺开工率有别，煤制甲醇开工相对稳定，天然气制等工艺略有波动，整体供应保持低位可控。 | | 需求 | 利空 | 本周甲醇需求延续淡季偏弱格局，结构性分化特征突出，总消费量环比小幅下滑，整体缺乏明确上行驱动，下游多维持刚需采购节奏。（1） ...

2025年12月29日 周报 期货研究报告 甲醇：港口库存高位上升，震荡偏弱 1、市场回顾与展望：上周港口甲醇市场继续偏强运行，其中江苏价格波动区间在2120-2200元/吨，广 东价格波动在2090-2130元/吨。外轮卸货速度顺畅，加之内地价格走弱导致港口与内地市场价差扩大，港口 货源倒流内地的量减量，导致港口甲醇库存大幅累积，但在预期利好对市场情绪的支撑下，价格仍表现坚挺。 内地甲醇价格延续疲软，主产区鄂尔多斯北线价格波动区间在1870-1900元/吨；下游东营接货价格波动区间 2160-2200元/吨。内地甲醇市场延续疲弱走势，企业出货不畅致库存高企，降价去库成为主流操作。下游采 购意愿受市场观望情绪压制，难有增量支撑；与此同时期货盘面表现不佳，港口货源回流进一步冲击内地市 场，供需双弱的格局之下，市场行情持续探底。 展望：甲醇企业整体利润不佳，国内甲醇开工预期高位维持，中东季节性限气逐步落地，当前伊朗在途 货量仍充裕，12月进口大概率维持高位水平。本周下游冰醋酸装置恢复中，预计产能利用率有所走高，甲醇 制烯烃华东、西北个别企业延续降负荷状态，行业周均开工预期窄幅下降，甲醇下游整体需求预计较稳。甲 醇 ...

综述：震荡承压 国泰君安期货·能源化工 甲醇周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 黄天圆 投资咨询从业资格号： Z0018016 杨鈜汉 投资咨询从业资格号： Z0021541 日期：2025年12月07日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 02 资料来源：钢联，国泰君安期货研究 基差，月差，仓单 -300 -200 -100 0 100 200 300 400 500 01-02 01-14 01-26 02-07 02-19 03-03 03-15 03-27 04-09 04-21 05-06 05-18 05-30 06-11 06-23 07-05 07-17 07-29 08-10 08-22 09-03 09-15 09-27 10-16 10-28 11-09 11-21 12-03 12-15 12-27 元/吨 CZCE：甲醇：基差（日） 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 400 500 600 元/吨 1-5月差 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 ...

根据上海证券交易所《上市公司自律监管指引第 3 号行业信息披露：第十三 号——化工》、《关于做好主板上市公司 2025 年第三季度报告披露工作的重要提 醒》的要求，南通醋酸化工股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）现将 2025 年三 季度主要经营数据披露如下： 注：其他有机化合物类产品乙烯酮均为自产自用，产品双乙烯酮大部分自产自用。 三、主要原材料的价格变动情况（含税） 证券代码：603968 证券简称：醋化股份 公告编号：临2025-036 南通醋酸化工股份有限公司 2025年三季度主要经营数据公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 | 主要原料 | 2024 年 1-9 月 | 2025 年 1-9 月 | 三季度同比 | 三季度环比变 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 平均进价（元/吨） | 平均进价（元/吨） | 变动比率（%） | 动比率（%） | | 冰醋酸 | 2,985.99 | 2,447.72 | -18.03 | -7.71 | | 巴豆醛 | 13,0 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The proportion of long and short positions in commodities changed little this week. The factor strength of the non - ferrous sector rebounded, while that of the precious metals and agricultural products sectors declined. The non - ferrous sector was relatively strong in the cross - section, while the chemical and precious metals sectors were relatively weak [2]. - Different commodities have different trends in strategy net value and fundamental factors. For example, in the methanol market, the comprehensive signal was long this week; in the float glass market, it was neutral; in the iron ore market, it remained neutral; and in the Shanghai lead market, it remained short [4][7][9]. 3. Summary by Commodity Methanol - **Strategy Net Value**: Last week, the supply factor increased by 0.11%, the demand factor increased by 0.13%, the inventory factor increased by 0.02%, and the synthetic factor strengthened by 0.19%. The comprehensive signal this week is long [3][4]. - **Fundamental Factors**: High import volume of methanol signaled a short on the supply side; increased开工负荷 of acetic acid and MTBE plants signaled a long on the demand side; methanol inventory in East China ports signaled a long on the inventory side; the spot price of inland methanol signaled a short, and the East China basis signaled a long, with the spread side being neutral to short [4]. Float Glass - **Strategy Net Value**: Last week, the inventory factor decreased by 0.06%, the spread factor weakened by 0.07%, the profit factor increased by 0.06%, and the synthetic factor decreased by 0.05%. The comprehensive signal this week is neutral [7]. - **Fundamental Factors**: The capacity utilization rate of float glass remained flat, so the supply side remained neutral; the increase in the number of commercial housing transactions in 30 large - and medium - sized cities signaled a long on the demand side; continuous inventory accumulation of domestic float glass enterprises signaled a short on the inventory side; the continuous slight decline in the spot market and the stable recovery of the futures price made the spread side change from a strong short to neutral [7]. Iron Ore - **Strategy Net Value**: Last week, each factor remained flat compared with the previous week, and the comprehensive signal this week remained neutral [9]. - **Fundamental Factors**: Decreased shipments from FMG and Rio Tinto and reduced arrivals at northern ports strengthened the long feedback on the supply side; decreased daily port clearance volume and steel mill consumption of domestic sintered ore powder maintained the short signal on the demand side; inventory accumulation at major national ports slightly strengthened the short feedback on the inventory side; the increase in the spot price center strengthened the long feedback on the spread side, and both the inventory and spread sides maintained a neutral signal [9]. Shanghai Lead - **Strategy Net Value**: Last week, the supply factor decreased by 0.45%, the demand factor weakened by 0.44%, the spread factor decreased by 0.57%, and the synthetic factor weakened by 0.38%. The comprehensive signal this week remained short [9]. - **Fundamental Factors**: Reduced losses of SMM tax - free recycled lead and a lower ratio of waste battery prices to recycled refined lead prices maintained the short signal on the supply side; inventory reduction in LME and SHFE made the inventory side turn to a long feedback, maintaining a neutral signal; the narrowing of the near - far month discount and the expansion of the spot discount weakened the short feedback on the spread side, and the signal turned to neutral [9]. Sector - Specific Momentum and Structure - **Momentum and Structure Data**: The report provides momentum and structure data for different sectors, including the egg - related, non - ferrous, energy - chemical, agricultural products, equity index, and precious metals sectors. For example, the non - ferrous sector had a momentum sequence value of 0.06, a momentum cross - section value of 0.93, a term structure value of - 2.2, and a position - holding volume value of - 0.64 [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "Neutral" rating for the methanol industry in the short - term, with an "Oscillating" investment view [2] Core Viewpoints - The methanol market shows a supply - demand game pattern. Supply is under pressure with high domestic capacity utilization and rising port inventories. Demand is differentiated, with weak traditional demand and a decline in MTO开工率. Cost support is weak, and the market may continue to be under pressure in the short term. Key variables such as import volume, MTO开工率 recovery, and coal price trends need to be focused on [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - The overall domestic methanol operating load this week was 75.85%, down from last week but slightly up from the same period last year. The decline in the national operating load was mainly affected by the northwest and north China regions. The average operating load of non - integrated methanol in China also decreased month - on - month, and overall production decreased due to more maintenance and production - cut devices and fewer previously restored devices [2] Demand - **Products with increased operating load**: Ice acetic acid, MTBE, dimethyl ether, and formaldehyde had a slight increase in operating load [2] - **Products with decreased operating load**: Methanol - to - olefins (CTO/MTO), methane chloride, formaldehyde (in some statistical dimensions), and dimethyl ether (in some statistical dimensions) saw a decline in operating load [2] - **Products with stable operating load**: DMF and methylal had stable operating loads compared to last week [2] Inventory - **Inland inventory**: Inland inventory was 36.04 tons, a slight increase of 0.05 tons from the previous period and a 19.26% year - on - year decrease. There was significant regional differentiation. Northwest and central China had a slight reduction in inventory, while east, north, and southwest China saw inventory accumulation. The pending order was 21.57 tons, a 5.79% month - on - month decrease. It is expected that the next - period inventory may drop to 34.13 tons [2] - **Port inventory**: The domestic methanol port inventory was 151.22 tons, a 2.08 - ton month - on - month increase and a 36.39% year - on - year increase. East China's inventory increased by 3 tons, while south China's decreased by 0.92 tons. It is expected that port inventory will continue to accumulate, putting downward pressure on the market [2] Profit - Domestic methanol profits were generally poor, with most of the main process profits shrinking or remaining in the red. Coal - to - methanol profits weakened significantly, coke - oven gas - to - methanol profits decreased month - on - month, and natural - gas - to - methanol remained in the red. The industrial chain profits also moved downwards, with most downstream industries in production losses [2] Macro and Geopolitics - The US Treasury official Scott Bessent completed trade negotiations with China, indicating that a successful framework had been reached for leaders to discuss. There were also issues with port unloading, which had an impact on the market [2] Investment Views - The methanol market is in a supply - demand game. Short - term market may continue to be under pressure. Focus on core variables such as import volume changes, MTO开工率 recovery, and coal price trends [2] Trading Strategies - **Single - side trading**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude - **Arbitrage**: Go long on MA1 - 5 spread [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Polyester Sector**: In the short - term, supply is expected to increase while demand improvement is limited, so the polyester sector will run weakly. In the medium - to - long - term, with unobvious demand peak season features, the polyester sector will fluctuate widely within a range [41][42]. - **Methanol**: In the short - term, although it is the demand peak season, the supply side still has pressure, and methanol will continue to fluctuate within a range. In the medium - to - long - term, there is continuous pressure on the supply side and stable demand support, resulting in a multi - empty game for methanol [60][61]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro and Crude Oil Important News - Israel's strike on Hamas in Qatar has increased Middle East tensions, providing some support for crude oil prices. However, EIA and IEA monthly reports have raised global oil supply growth forecasts, and EIA inventory data shows a seasonal decline in US crude oil demand, making it difficult for oil prices to rise. If the geopolitical situation eases, the pressure for crude oil adjustment will increase [6][7][41]. - OPEC + agreed to increase crude oil production by 137,000 barrels per day in October, with a lower increase rate compared to previous months. The organization is adhering to the policy of competing for market share, and the new round of production increase in October means starting to lift the 1.66 million barrels per day of agreed production cuts [7]. - The EU is preparing the 19th round of sanctions against Russia, targeting six Russian banks and energy companies, and expanding to payment systems, credit card networks, and cryptocurrency platforms [7]. - The IEA has raised the forecast for global oil supply growth this year and hinted at a possible surplus in 2026. Supply growth is much faster than demand growth [7]. - EIA weekly data shows a decline in US refined oil demand and an increase in inventories, indicating a peak in demand [8]. - The increase in the number of initial jobless claims in the US has verified the weakness of the employment market, which will weaken residents' consumption ability and energy demand expectations, leading to a more pessimistic market expectation for US oil product demand [9]. 3.2 Polyester Sector 3.2.1 Futures and Spot Prices - WTI crude oil continuous decreased by 1.71% week - on - week, while the price of some polyester products such as PX and PTA increased slightly, and the price of EG decreased [11]. - The basis of some products such as PX decreased, while the basis of some products such as ethylene glycol increased [11]. 3.2.2 Supply - **PX**: The 800,000 - ton unit of Fuhai Chuang restarted, and the Asian PX capacity utilization rate increased slightly. Next week, some units will be under maintenance while Fuhai Chuang's unit will release production, so the weekly output of PX is expected to increase slightly [20]. - **PTA**: Some previously shut - down units restarted this week, and the supply increased. Next week, large - scale units such as Fuhai Chuang are planned to restart, and the supply is expected to continue to increase, with the supply - demand situation possibly turning to inventory accumulation [25]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: New units have successfully conducted test runs, increasing the expected domestic supply pressure. The supply decreased slightly this week, and the port inventory decreased slightly. Next week, the port inventory may first accumulate and then decline [28]. 3.2.3 Demand - The polyester end had an average weekly operating rate of 87.9%, a week - on - week increase of 0.56 percentage points. Polyester filament continued to accumulate inventory this week [29][32]. - Terminal seasonal orders were generally average, and downstream demand had not significantly improved. The Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom operating rate remained stable, the number of orders from textile enterprises increased slightly, and the inventory of grey fabrics decreased slightly [36][38][39]. 3.3 Methanol Sector 3.3.1 Futures, Spot, and Downstream Prices - The futures price of MA2601 decreased by 1.49% week - on - week, and the basis increased by 29.29%. The price of methanol in Taicang decreased slightly, while the CFR price increased [44]. - Among the downstream products, the prices of formaldehyde, glacial acetic acid, and MTBE increased, while the price of dimethyl ether remained unchanged [44]. 3.3.2 Cost and Profit - This week, due to the increase in the methanol spot price, the profits of the three major production processes all improved, with a week - on - week increase. The downstream profits mostly decreased slightly, but the MTO profit was still at a relatively high level in previous years, and the profits of acetic acid and MTBE increased for two consecutive weeks [49][50]. 3.3.3 Supply - As of September 11, the methanol unit capacity utilization rate was 84.58%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.05 percentage points. China's methanol production was 1.9192 million tons, a decrease of 43,500 tons from last week, a week - on - week decrease of 2.21%. This week, the number of shut - down units was greater than the number of restarted units. Next week, some units are planned to restart [53]. - As of September 10, China's methanol port inventory was 1.5503 million tons, an increase of 122,600 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week increase of 8.59%. The port continued to significantly accumulate inventory, and the supply side was under continuous pressure, with goods flowing back to the inland. The inland inventory was 342,600 tons, a decrease of 4,500 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 1.3% [59]. 3.3.4 Demand - Affected by the maintenance of the olefin unit of Qinghai Salt Lake, the olefin operating load decreased slightly this week. With profit restoration and the expectation of some olefin unit restarts, the olefin operating rate still has room to rise. The operating rates of traditional downstream industries fluctuated, with no obvious positive signs [60]. - The restart of Zhejiang Xingxing will provide some support for the demand in the coastal market and may promote port inventory reduction. The subsequent olefin procurement plans and the continuous high import volume need to be continuously monitored [60].

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a weekly methanol data report released by New Era Futures Research on September 5, 2025 [1][2] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Group 3: Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, the supply - demand situation of methanol remains loose, with prices fluctuating within a range and being mostly affected by market sentiment. Attention should be paid to the resumption progress of olefin plants [21] - In the long - term, the supply - side pressure of methanol persists, and the fundamentals are weak. Attention should be paid to the actual demand during the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season and the impact of gas restrictions in Iran on methanol imports [21] Group 4: Price Trends - The futures price of MA2601 increased from 2361 yuan/ton to 2415 yuan/ton, with a rise of 2.29%. The basis decreased from - 136 yuan/ton to - 140 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.94%. The price of methanol in Taicang dropped from 2298.4 yuan/ton to 2255.2 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.88%. The methanol CFR price decreased from 260 dollars/ton to 258.33 dollars/ton, a decline of 0.64% [4] - Among downstream products, the price of formaldehyde in Shandong remained unchanged, the price of glacial acetic acid in Jiangsu increased from 2229 yuan/ton to 2278.75 yuan/ton, a rise of 2.23%, the price of dimethyl ether in Henan remained unchanged, and the price of MTBE in Shandong increased from 4980 yuan/ton to 5061.25 yuan/ton, a rise of 1.63% [4] Group 5: Cost and Profit - This week, coal - based methanol profit slightly decreased due to the continuous decline and subsequent rebound of coal prices and increased freight. The profits of natural - gas - based and coke - oven - gas - based methanol recovered due to cost reduction [9] - As the methanol price decreased, the downstream profits significantly recovered, especially acetic acid, with a month - on - month increase of 23.69% [10] Group 6: Supply Side - As of September 4, the weekly plant capacity utilization rate was 86.63%, a month - on - month increase of 1.77 percentage points. Methanol production was 1.9628 million tons, an increase of 43,700 tons from last week, a month - on - month increase of 2.3% [13] - This week, the total restored capacity of returning plants was about 3.4 million tons, and the total lost capacity of maintenance plants was about 700,000 tons. Next week, some plants are planned for maintenance and some for resumption, with the resumption volume slightly larger than the maintenance volume [13] Group 7: Demand Side - With the gradual recovery of MTO profit, the MTO operating rate remained stable but decreased slightly due to the maintenance of Ningxia Baofeng's olefin plant on Thursday. Traditional downstream demand was mainly for rigid needs and decreased slightly due to some plant maintenance [16] - Although the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season has arrived, the actual demand fulfillment is slightly poor, and attention should be paid to whether future demand can meet expectations [16] Group 8: Inventory - As of September 3, the total port inventory of Chinese methanol was 1.4277 million tons, an increase of 128,400 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 9.88%. The inventory accumulation rate at ports narrowed compared to last week but still exceeded 1.4 million tons. The inland inventory was 341,100 tons, an increase of 7700 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 2.31%, remaining at a low - inventory level [19] Group 9: Strategy Recommendation - In the short - term, the supply - demand situation of methanol remains loose, with prices fluctuating within a range and being mostly affected by market sentiment. Attention should be paid to the resumption progress of olefin plants [21] - In the long - term, the supply - side pressure of methanol persists, and the fundamentals are weak. Attention should be paid to the actual demand during the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season and the impact of gas restrictions in Iran on methanol imports [21] - Next week's key points of concern include the recovery of coastal olefin plants, methanol inventory accumulation pressure, coal price impact, and macro - market sentiment [21]

Report Overview - Report Name: Methanol Data Weekly Report [1] - Report Date: August 29, 2025 [2] - Analyst: Zhang Weiwei [3] 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, the supply - demand pattern of methanol remains loose, and the price will fluctuate weakly. Attention should be paid to the resumption progress of olefin plants and downstream inventory - building [22]. - In the long - term, there is still an expectation of inventory accumulation at ports, and the fundamentals are weak. Attention should be paid to the actual demand fulfillment during the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season and the impact of gas restrictions in Iran on methanol imports [22]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Methanol Spot and Futures and Downstream Price Trends - Futures: The price of MA2601 was 2,361 yuan/ton on August 29, 2025, down 44 yuan/ton (-1.83%) from August 22. The basis was - 136 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan/ton (-23.64%) [4]. - Spot: The price of methanol in Taicang was 2,298.4 yuan/ton, down 61.2 yuan/ton (-2.59%); the CFR price of methanol was 262 US dollars/ton, up 0.6 US dollars/ton (0.23%) [4]. - Downstream: The price of formaldehyde in Shandong was 1,040 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton (-0.95%); the price of glacial acetic acid in Jiangsu was 2,223.75 yuan/ton, up 33.75 yuan/ton (1.54%); the price of dimethyl ether in Henan remained unchanged at 3,400 yuan/ton; the price of MTBE in Shandong was 4,983.75 yuan/ton, down 27.25 yuan/ton (-0.54%) [4]. 3.2 Methanol Cost and Profit - Due to the decline in coal prices, although methanol prices also dropped, the decline was limited, so the profitability of coal - based methanol production slightly improved. Meanwhile, the profits of coke oven gas - based and natural gas - based methanol production decreased month - on - month, and natural gas - based methanol continued to operate at a loss [9]. - As the "Golden September and Silver October" approaches, the demand fulfillment is slightly weak. The profit of MTO continues to recover, and the demand support for methanol continues. The profits of traditional demand sectors show mixed trends, and current demand is mainly driven by rigid needs [9]. 3.3 Methanol Supply Side - As of August 28, the weekly plant capacity utilization rate was 84.84%, up 1.07 percentage points month - on - month. Methanol production was 1.9182 million tons, an increase of 24,200 tons (1.28%) from the previous week [14]. - This week, plants in Shaanxi Shenmu, Xin'ao Daqi, Inner Mongolia Yigao, etc. resumed production, with a total restored production capacity of about 2.6 million tons; plants in Xinxiang Zhongxin, Shanxi Linxin, Xiaoyi Pengfei, etc. were under maintenance, with a total lost production capacity of about 1.2 million tons [14]. - In early September, plants such as Ningxia Baofeng are planned to resume production, with a restored production capacity of about 2.2 million tons, and the next - period operating rate may continue to rise [13]. 3.4 Methanol Demand Side - The operating rate of methanol - to - olefins was 85.35%, up 0.76 percentage points; the operating rate of formaldehyde was 41.27%, down 0.27 percentage points; the operating rate of acetic acid was 85.24%, down 3.77 percentage points; the operating rate of dimethyl ether was 5.97%, down 1.05 percentage points; the operating rate of MTBE remained unchanged at 63.54%; the operating rate of methane chloride was 87.17%, up 2.49 percentage points [17]. 3.5 Methanol Port and Inland Inventory - As of August 27, the total methanol port inventory was 1.2993 million tons, an increase of 223,300 tons (20.7%) from the previous period. With stable overseas operating rates and stable imported supplies, coastal olefin plants have no restart plans, and port inventory may continue to accumulate [21]. - Inland inventory was 333,400 tons, an increase of 22,600 tons (7.27%) from the previous period, still at a low - inventory level. The marginal demand for external procurement of olefins in some inland areas has weakened. Attention should be paid to the continuous rhythm of port cargo "back - flowing" [21]. 3.6 Strategy Recommendation - Short - term: The supply - demand pattern remains loose, and methanol prices will fluctuate weakly. Attention should be paid to the resumption progress of olefin plants and downstream inventory - building [22]. - Long - term: There is still an expectation of inventory accumulation at ports, and the fundamentals are weak. Attention should be paid to the actual demand fulfillment during the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season and the impact of gas restrictions in Iran on methanol imports [22]. - Next week's focus and risk warnings: The recovery of coastal olefin plants, methanol inventory accumulation pressure, and macro - market sentiment [22]