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银河证券每日晨报-20250606
Yin He Zheng Quan· 2025-06-06 03:08
Core Insights - The report highlights the gradual implementation of the 136 document details across provinces, with a focus on ensuring profitability for existing projects and clearer revenue expectations [3] - The report emphasizes the importance of mechanism electricity quantity and price, with specific guidelines from Shandong and Guangdong provinces, indicating a stronger support for existing projects compared to Inner Mongolia [3] - The national green electricity direct connection policy is seen as a significant step towards promoting green electricity consumption and reducing electricity costs for end-users, particularly export-oriented enterprises [4] Segment Summaries Thermal Power - Coal prices remain low, with the Qinhuangdao port 5500 kcal thermal coal price dropping to 610 RMB/ton as of June 3, 2025, and an average price of 688 RMB/ton year-to-date, a year-on-year decrease of 189 RMB/ton or 22%, which may mitigate the negative impact of long-term electricity price declines in 2025 [5] - Companies with a high market coal ratio and small electricity price reduction are recommended for attention [5] Hydropower and Nuclear Power - Current low interest rates enhance the investment value of hydropower and nuclear power [5] Renewable Energy - Continuous policy support for electricity price reform and green electricity consumption is expected to foster sustainable industry development, presenting a pivotal investment opportunity [5] - The report anticipates that provinces with stronger renewable energy consumption capabilities will set higher mechanism electricity quantity ratios, aligning with the 136 document's "new and old connection" approach [3] - The first bidding price in Shandong is capped at the previous year's settlement average price, with wind and solar prices at 0.357 and 0.346 RMB/kWh respectively, indicating a discount of 10% and 12% compared to coal benchmark prices [3] Electricity Consumption Trends - In April, total electricity consumption reached 772.1 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 4.7%, with notable growth in new business sectors such as information transmission and electric vehicle charging services [5] - The report notes a decline in hydropower generation growth, while wind and solar generation growth accelerated [5]
分时电价改革加速,谁承压、谁受益?
随着夏季气温逐渐升高带来用电负荷攀升,近期全国多个省份密集调整分时电价机制,运用价格 杠杆以引导错峰用电。 江苏省发布的《关于优化工商业分时电价结构促进新能源消纳降低企业用电成本支持经济社会发 展的通知》(下称《通知》)将于6月起正式实施。其中,除了扩大分时电价执行范围、优化工 商业用户分时时段等常规操作之外,还罕见地调整了工商业用户分时电价计价基础,由用户到户 电价为基础进行上下浮动调整为以工商业用户购电价格为基础,并优化峰谷浮动比例。 第一财经记者注意到,此前山东、四川等省已在今年出台政策完善分时电价机制并开始执行,江 西、安徽、贵州等省则在今年4月或5月就政策优化方案向外征求意见。从细节上来看,建立季节 性差异化分时电价机制,进一步拉大峰谷价差并扩大执行范围几乎是各省的共识。 文 | 第一财经 马晨晨 多位行业人士对第一财经记者表示,分时电价改革是大势所趋,对于不同的主体而言影响有所差 异。一方面,它能够鼓励电力用户错峰用电,减轻发电企业和电网的供电压力;同时,执行分时 电价的中小企业能够据此合理安排生产,降低用能成本。但另一方面,部分新能源发电和储能项 目或将面临投资收益率的下滑压力,需要寻求更多价值 ...
多省份调整分时电价机制,谁受益、谁承压?
Di Yi Cai Jing Zi Xun· 2025-05-26 13:20
随着夏季气温逐渐升高带来用电负荷攀升,近期全国多个省份密集调整分时电价机制,运用价格杠杆以 引导错峰用电。 江苏省发布的《关于优化工商业分时电价结构促进新能源消纳降低企业用电成本支持经济社会发展的通 知》(下称《通知》)将于6月起正式实施。其中,除了扩大分时电价执行范围、优化工商业用户分时 时段等常规操作之外,还罕见地调整了工商业用户分时电价计价基础,由用户到户电价为基础进行上下 浮动调整为以工商业用户购电价格为基础,并优化峰谷浮动比例。 第一财经记者注意到,此前山东、四川等省已在今年出台政策完善分时电价机制并开始执行,江西、安 徽、贵州等省则在今年4月或5月就政策优化方案向外征求意见。从细节上来看,建立季节性差异化分时 电价机制,进一步拉大峰谷价差并扩大执行范围几乎是各省的共识。 多位行业人士对第一财经记者表示,分时电价改革是大势所趋,对于不同的主体而言影响有所差异。一 方面,它能够鼓励电力用户错峰用电,减轻发电企业和电网的供电压力;同时,执行分时电价的中小企 业能够据此合理安排生产,降低用能成本。但另一方面,部分新能源发电和储能项目或将面临投资收益 率的下滑压力,需要寻求更多价值创造途径。 所谓分时电价是 ...