Core Viewpoint - The energy and electricity sector in China is a key battleground for achieving the "dual carbon" goals, with a continuous acceleration in green development and the need for an improved electricity pricing mechanism to support this transition [1] Group 1: Market Price Adaptation - The electricity pricing reform has been accelerating over the past five years, enhancing the pricing mechanisms across generation, transmission, and consumption stages [2] - In the generation stage, coal power has fully liberalized the on-grid electricity price, establishing an innovative "capacity + energy" pricing mechanism to support the transition of coal power to a flexible resource [2] - The reform has released clear price signals that significantly enhance the optimization of resource allocation and the effectiveness of energy green transition [2] Group 2: Electricity Pricing System Improvement - There are higher demands for deepening electricity pricing reforms to support the carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals [3] - The pricing signals for optimizing the power generation structure need improvement, including setting reasonable bidding limits and exploring pricing mechanisms that encourage accurate cost reporting [3] - A two-part pricing mechanism combining capacity price compensation and market energy competition is suggested for coal, gas, and new energy storage [3] Group 3: Transmission and Distribution Pricing Mechanism - The transmission and distribution pricing mechanism needs to be improved to adapt to the efficient utilization of clean resources [4] - Implementation of a two-part or single capacity pricing mechanism across provinces is necessary to support regional collaborative green transitions [4] - The pricing mechanism should reflect the role of cross-regional projects in power transmission and ensure fair cost allocation among stakeholders [4] Group 4: Consumption Pricing Mechanism - The leverage of electricity prices to guide low-carbon consumption needs to be activated [4] - A tiered pricing policy for key industries based on advanced energy consumption and carbon emission standards is recommended to enhance energy efficiency and reduce carbon emissions [4] - The optimization of residential electricity pricing mechanisms is essential to encourage low-carbon consumption among households [4] Group 5: Supporting Policies - Supporting policies are needed to maximize the effectiveness of electricity price signals [5] - Strengthening the responsibility for renewable energy consumption and exploring the application of green electricity and certificates in supply chain management are crucial [5] - The construction of a carbon market should be advanced to reflect the environmental value of carbon elements and enhance the price transmission effect [6]

Core Insights - The report highlights the gradual implementation of the 136 document details across provinces, with a focus on ensuring profitability for existing projects and clearer revenue expectations [3] - The report emphasizes the importance of mechanism electricity quantity and price, with specific guidelines from Shandong and Guangdong provinces, indicating a stronger support for existing projects compared to Inner Mongolia [3] - The national green electricity direct connection policy is seen as a significant step towards promoting green electricity consumption and reducing electricity costs for end-users, particularly export-oriented enterprises [4] Segment Summaries Thermal Power - Coal prices remain low, with the Qinhuangdao port 5500 kcal thermal coal price dropping to 610 RMB/ton as of June 3, 2025, and an average price of 688 RMB/ton year-to-date, a year-on-year decrease of 189 RMB/ton or 22%, which may mitigate the negative impact of long-term electricity price declines in 2025 [5] - Companies with a high market coal ratio and small electricity price reduction are recommended for attention [5] Hydropower and Nuclear Power - Current low interest rates enhance the investment value of hydropower and nuclear power [5] Renewable Energy - Continuous policy support for electricity price reform and green electricity consumption is expected to foster sustainable industry development, presenting a pivotal investment opportunity [5] - The report anticipates that provinces with stronger renewable energy consumption capabilities will set higher mechanism electricity quantity ratios, aligning with the 136 document's "new and old connection" approach [3] - The first bidding price in Shandong is capped at the previous year's settlement average price, with wind and solar prices at 0.357 and 0.346 RMB/kWh respectively, indicating a discount of 10% and 12% compared to coal benchmark prices [3] Electricity Consumption Trends - In April, total electricity consumption reached 772.1 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 4.7%, with notable growth in new business sectors such as information transmission and electric vehicle charging services [5] - The report notes a decline in hydropower generation growth, while wind and solar generation growth accelerated [5]