美东时间1月2日，特斯拉将公布2025年第四季度交付量数据。据彭博社数据，预计特斯拉第四季度交付 约44.09万辆汽车，同比下降11%。这意味着，特斯拉2025年下半年销量将低于2024年同期水平。另据 特斯拉发布的分析师预测汇总数据，其销量预期更为悲观，预期特斯拉2025年第四季度交付量为422850 辆，同比下降15%。2025年全年交付量方面，该份数据预计为164.08万辆，较2024年的178.9万辆下滑近 8%。若该预测成真，特斯拉将迎来连续第二年年度交付量下滑，且降幅显著扩大。2024年，特斯拉共 计交付178.92万辆，同比微降1.07%，这是十余年来特斯拉年度汽车交付量的首次下降。对此，特斯拉 明确表示，"不认可分析师的任何信息、建议或结论"，仅客观呈现汇总数据。有分析指出，特斯拉2025 年第四季度销量疲软主要归因于美国联邦电动车税收抵免政策于9月到期，该政策此前可为购车者提供 最高7500美元的优惠。抵免截止前的抢购潮推动第三季度销量激增，但也透支了第四季度需求。另外， 根据彭博汇编的数据，华尔街分析师对特斯拉2026年的交付预期已从超300万辆大幅下调至约180万辆。 （券商中国） 来源 ...

Core Viewpoint - Tesla is facing significant downward revisions in its delivery forecasts for 2025 and 2026, indicating potential challenges in maintaining growth momentum in the coming years [1][2][5]. Group 1: Tesla Delivery Forecasts - Wall Street predicts Tesla will deliver approximately 440,900 vehicles in Q4 2025, a year-on-year decline of 11%, marking a continuous drop in deliveries for two consecutive years [1][2]. - The overall delivery forecast for Tesla in 2025 is estimated at 1.6408 million vehicles, down nearly 8% from 1.789 million in 2024, which would represent a significant decline after a slight decrease in 2024 [3][4]. - Analysts have drastically reduced their 2026 delivery expectations for Tesla from over 3 million to around 1.8 million vehicles, reflecting growing concerns about the company's short-term performance [5]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Tesla's Performance - The anticipated decline in Q4 2025 sales is attributed to the expiration of the U.S. federal electric vehicle tax credit in September, which previously incentivized purchases and led to a surge in Q3 sales, potentially depleting demand for Q4 [4]. - Tesla has publicly stated that it does not endorse any analyst information or conclusions, emphasizing the objective presentation of data [4]. Group 3: Tesla's Stock Performance - As of December 31, 2025, Tesla's stock has experienced a six-day consecutive decline, dropping over 1% on the last trading day, resulting in a cumulative retreat of approximately 8%, although the stock still saw an annual increase of about 11% [5]. - Tesla's current price-to-earnings ratio is nearing 300, which places significant pressure on the company to fulfill its promises regarding autonomous driving technology [5]. Group 4: SpaceX Developments - SpaceX announced plans to lower the operational altitude of approximately 4,400 Starlink satellites from about 550 kilometers to 480 kilometers to reduce collision risks and manage space debris [6][8]. - This adjustment is part of a major reorganization of the satellite constellation, aimed at creating a safer operational environment and is influenced by solar activity cycles that affect atmospheric density [8]. - The low Earth orbit is becoming increasingly congested, with projections indicating a 190% increase in the number of low Earth orbit satellites over the next decade [8].

另据特斯拉发布的分析师预测汇总数据，其销量预期更为悲观，预期特斯拉2025年第四季度交付量为 422850辆，同比下降15%。 2025年全年交付量方面，该份数据预计为164.08万辆，较2024年的178.9万辆下滑近8%。 若该预测成真，特斯拉将迎来连续第二年年度交付量下滑，且降幅显著扩大。2024年，特斯拉共计交付 178.92万辆，同比微降1.07%，这是十余年来特斯拉年度汽车交付量的首次下降。 对此，特斯拉明确表示，"不认可分析师的任何信息、建议或结论"，仅客观呈现汇总数据。 有分析指出，特斯拉2025年第四季度销量疲软主要归因于美国联邦电动车税收抵免政策于9月到期，该 政策此前可为购车者提供最高7500美元的优惠。抵免截止前的抢购潮推动第三季度销量激增，但也透支 了第四季度需求。 特斯拉突然传来利空信号。 据华尔街最新预测数据，预计特斯拉2025年第四季度交付约44.09万辆汽车，同比下降11%，特斯拉交 付量将连续两年遭遇下滑。另据彭博汇编的数据，华尔街分析师对特斯拉2026年的交付预期从超300万 辆大幅下调至约180万辆。 另外，马斯克旗下美国太空探索技术公司（SpaceX）也有重磅动作。北 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - China's new energy vehicle market penetration rate exceeded 30% in 2023 and 50% in 2024. In 2025, high - competitiveness new car products are continuously launched, and price wars are gradually ending. Overseas markets face trade protectionism in Europe and the United States, so attention should be paid to new growth points such as Belt and Road countries and the Middle East. Domestic independent brands' market share continues to expand, and companies with strong product strength, smooth overseas expansion, and stable supply should be focused on [3][114]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Financial Market Tracking - It presents the one - week price changes of related sectors and listed companies. For example, BYD's closing price on August 22 was 110.66 yuan, with a one - week increase of 4.33% [13][17]. 3.2.1 China's New Energy Vehicle Market Tracking - China Market Sales and Exports - Relevant charts show the sales volume, penetration rate, domestic sales, and exports of China's new energy vehicles [18][23]. 3.2.1 China's New Energy Vehicle Market Tracking - China Market Inventory Changes - The charts display the monthly new inventory of new energy passenger vehicles in channels and manufacturers [26][27]. 3.2.1 China's New Energy Vehicle Market Tracking - China's New Energy Vehicle Manufacturers' Deliveries - Charts show the monthly delivery volumes of various domestic new energy vehicle manufacturers such as Leapmotor, Li Auto, XPeng, and NIO [30][34]. 3.2.2 Global and Overseas New Energy Vehicle Market Tracking - Global Market - Relevant charts show the sales volume, penetration rate, and sales volume of EV and PHV in the global new energy vehicle market [42][45]. 3.2.2 Global and Overseas New Energy Vehicle Market Tracking - European Market - Charts show the sales volume, penetration rate, and sales volume of EV and PHV in the European new energy vehicle market, as well as the sales volume of EV and PHV in countries like the UK, Germany, and France [48][57]. 3.2.2 Global and Overseas New Energy Vehicle Market Tracking - North American Market - Charts show the sales volume, penetration rate, and sales volume of EV and PHV in the North American new energy vehicle market [61][62]. 3.2.2 Global and Overseas New Energy Vehicle Market Tracking - Other Regions - Charts show the sales volume, penetration rate, and sales volume of EV and PHV in other regions, including Japan, South Korea, and Thailand [64][74]. 3.2.3 Battery Power Chain - Charts show the battery loading volume, export volume, weekly average price of battery cells, cell material cost, and the prices and operating rates of various battery materials [78][97]. 3.2.4 Other Upstream Raw Materials - Charts show the daily prices of rubber, glass, steel, and aluminum [100][104]. 3.3.1 Hot News Summary - China: Policy Dynamics - The three - department joint release of the "Interim Measures for the Total Quantity Regulation and Management of Rare Earth Mining and Rare Earth Smelting and Separation" strengthens the total quantity regulation of rare earths. From January to July in Chengdu, the production of new energy vehicles increased by over 300% [106]. 3.3.2 Hot News Summary - China: Industry Dynamics - The Passenger Car Association expects 1.94 million passenger vehicle retail sales and 1.1 million new energy retail sales in August. From August 1 - 17, new energy retail sales increased by 9% year - on - year, and cumulative retail sales since the beginning of the year increased by 18% year - on - year [106][107]. 3.3.3 Hot News Summary - China: Enterprise Dynamics - Tesla China launched the Model Y L, a six - seat pure - electric SUV, with a starting price of 339,000 yuan and expected delivery in September. Dongfeng Group will delist, and Voyah will be listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [108][109]. 3.3.4 Hot News Summary - Overseas: Enterprise Dynamics - Great Wall Motors' Brazilian factory opened, with an initial annual production capacity of 50,000 vehicles. BlueOval SK's first factory in Kentucky started delivering battery cells [110][111]. 3.4 Industry Views - The domestic market has faced high - base pressure since August, but the market has maintained stable growth. There is a trend of more refined subsidy regulation and diversified subsidy methods. Overseas, North American new energy vehicle sales increased in July, mainly due to the pre - sales caused by the upcoming end of the electric vehicle tax credit policy. Europe has launched a new round of subsidy measures, which are expected to drive the electric vehicle market [111][113]. 3.5 Investment Advice - China's new energy vehicle market penetration rate has reached a high level, and high - competitiveness new products are continuously emerging. Attention should be paid to new overseas growth points and domestic independent brand companies with strong comprehensive strength [3][114].

Core Viewpoint - Tesla's stock has experienced significant volatility, prompting some Wall Street analysts to adopt a more cautious stance, with recent downgrades in ratings reflecting concerns over the company's future performance and market conditions [2][3]. Group 1: Analyst Ratings and Market Sentiment - Baird analysts downgraded Tesla's stock rating from "outperform" to "neutral," while Argus Research lowered its rating from "buy" to "hold" [2]. - Among 55 Wall Street analysts covering Tesla, 27 maintain a bullish outlook, 17 are neutral, and 11 are bearish [2]. - Tesla's stock price has dropped 26% year-to-date, closing at $295 last Friday, with a further 2% decline in pre-market trading on Monday [2]. Group 2: Concerns Over Future Growth - Baird analysts expect only 6,000 autonomous taxis to be deployed, significantly lower than CEO Elon Musk's optimistic projections of tens of thousands [3]. - Analysts express skepticism about the profitability and market conditions for Tesla's autonomous taxi service, suggesting that current investor expectations may be overly optimistic [3]. - Argus's Selesky raised concerns about slowing demand for electric vehicles in the U.S. and noted that competitors like Ford and GM have made significant advancements in EV manufacturing [3]. Group 3: Political and Market Challenges - Tesla faces challenges in Europe due to Musk's political connections, leading to weakened sales in that region, while competition in China is intensifying [4]. - Baird analysts have lowered delivery expectations for 2026, citing potential cancellations of EV tax credits if Trump's tax and fiscal bill passes [4]. - Despite short-term challenges, Baird analysts remain optimistic about Tesla's long-term prospects, viewing the company's investments in autonomous taxis and robotics as holding "extraordinary opportunities" [4].