全球太空竞赛正愈演愈烈。 据最新消息，国际电信联盟（ITU）官网显示，我国2025年12月向ITU申请了超20万颗卫星的频轨资源。其中 超19万颗卫星来自无线电创新院（全称：无线电频谱开发利用和技术创新研究院）。 与此同时，马斯克旗下的美国太空探索技术公司（SpaceX）也有大动作。当地时间1月9日，美国联邦通信委 员会批准下一代卫星星座计划，授权SpaceX在现有已部署8000颗卫星的基础上，增加部署运营7500颗第二代 星链卫星，全球获批在轨运行的二代卫星总数超1.5万颗。 超20万颗卫星申请 据ITU官网，在2025年最后一周，我国向ITU申报了多个卫星星座计划，申报总规模超20万颗。此次申报涵盖 14个卫星星座，其中无线电创新院CTC-1和CTC-2两个星座各自申请96714颗，合计超过19万颗，成为本轮申 报的主力。 本次卫星频谱轨申报运营主体全面扩容，涉及中国星网、上海垣信、中国移动、中国电信、无线电创新院、国 电高科、航天驭星、银河航天等多家公司机构。 公开信息显示，无线电创新院于2025年12月30日在雄安新区登记注册，是我国无线电管理技术领域首家以技术 创新和成果转化为目标的新型研发机构。 ...

2024年8月6日，下午14时42分。山西太原卫星发射中心。 正值盛夏，发射场周边的黄土被烈日烤得发白。在充满静电与焦灼感的空气中，一枚长征六号甲运载火箭轰然点火。伴随着令人战栗的低频轰鸣，火箭撕裂大 气层，在苍穹中留下一道白色的尾迹。 在官方的新闻通稿里，这是一次标准的、并无太多意外的成功发射："我国成功将千帆极轨01组卫星发射升空，卫星顺利进入预定轨道。" 但在中国商业航天的隐秘江湖里，这一天的意义，不亚于1944年的诺曼底登陆日（D-Day）。 整流罩里装载的18颗扁平状卫星，属于一个庞大的计划——"千帆星座"（G60）。在此之前，中国的万颗级低轨宽带互联网星座，只存在于厚厚的申报文件、 VC机构的PPT以及无数次闭门会议的争吵中。 但从这一刻起，中国版"星链"正式从PPT跳进了近地轨道。 这18颗卫星的入轨，就像是向平静湖面投下的一颗深水炸弹。如果你此时身处上海松江的卫星工厂，或者北京亦庄的火箭一条街，你会听到一种几乎要在此刻 爆发的引擎轰鸣声——那是整个产业链在极限承压下的喘息。 为什么是现在？ 如果你去问一名航天工程师，他会告诉你是因为液体火箭技术终于收敛了；如果你去问投资人，他会说是"新质生产力 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [7] Core Viewpoints - SpaceX announced a reduction in the orbital altitude of thousands of Starlink satellites to mitigate collision risks, highlighting the increasing competition for limited space resources [2][5] - The adjustment will involve approximately 4,400 Starlink satellites moving from an altitude of 550 kilometers to about 480 kilometers, aiming to reduce space debris and enhance safety [10] - The report emphasizes that the competition for low Earth orbit resources is intensifying, which may accelerate the development of China's commercial space industry, particularly with advancements in reusable rocket technology [10] Summary by Relevant Sections - **Event Description**: SpaceX's decision to lower the altitude of its Starlink satellites is a response to the growing congestion in low Earth orbit, which has become a focal point for international discussions on space resource allocation [5][10] - **Market Dynamics**: The report notes that the number of low Earth orbit satellites is expected to increase by 190% over the next decade, further complicating resource distribution [10] - **China's Commercial Space Development**: China's commercial space sector is projected to enter a rapid growth phase, driven by the competition for orbital resources and advancements in technology, with a focus on key suppliers in the industry [10]

Core Viewpoint - Tesla is facing significant downward revisions in its delivery forecasts for 2025 and 2026, indicating potential challenges in maintaining growth momentum in the coming years [1][2][5]. Group 1: Tesla Delivery Forecasts - Wall Street predicts Tesla will deliver approximately 440,900 vehicles in Q4 2025, a year-on-year decline of 11%, marking a continuous drop in deliveries for two consecutive years [1][2]. - The overall delivery forecast for Tesla in 2025 is estimated at 1.6408 million vehicles, down nearly 8% from 1.789 million in 2024, which would represent a significant decline after a slight decrease in 2024 [3][4]. - Analysts have drastically reduced their 2026 delivery expectations for Tesla from over 3 million to around 1.8 million vehicles, reflecting growing concerns about the company's short-term performance [5]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Tesla's Performance - The anticipated decline in Q4 2025 sales is attributed to the expiration of the U.S. federal electric vehicle tax credit in September, which previously incentivized purchases and led to a surge in Q3 sales, potentially depleting demand for Q4 [4]. - Tesla has publicly stated that it does not endorse any analyst information or conclusions, emphasizing the objective presentation of data [4]. Group 3: Tesla's Stock Performance - As of December 31, 2025, Tesla's stock has experienced a six-day consecutive decline, dropping over 1% on the last trading day, resulting in a cumulative retreat of approximately 8%, although the stock still saw an annual increase of about 11% [5]. - Tesla's current price-to-earnings ratio is nearing 300, which places significant pressure on the company to fulfill its promises regarding autonomous driving technology [5]. Group 4: SpaceX Developments - SpaceX announced plans to lower the operational altitude of approximately 4,400 Starlink satellites from about 550 kilometers to 480 kilometers to reduce collision risks and manage space debris [6][8]. - This adjustment is part of a major reorganization of the satellite constellation, aimed at creating a safer operational environment and is influenced by solar activity cycles that affect atmospheric density [8]. - The low Earth orbit is becoming increasingly congested, with projections indicating a 190% increase in the number of low Earth orbit satellites over the next decade [8].

另据特斯拉发布的分析师预测汇总数据，其销量预期更为悲观，预期特斯拉2025年第四季度交付量为 422850辆，同比下降15%。 2025年全年交付量方面，该份数据预计为164.08万辆，较2024年的178.9万辆下滑近8%。 若该预测成真，特斯拉将迎来连续第二年年度交付量下滑，且降幅显著扩大。2024年，特斯拉共计交付 178.92万辆，同比微降1.07%，这是十余年来特斯拉年度汽车交付量的首次下降。 对此，特斯拉明确表示，"不认可分析师的任何信息、建议或结论"，仅客观呈现汇总数据。 有分析指出，特斯拉2025年第四季度销量疲软主要归因于美国联邦电动车税收抵免政策于9月到期，该 政策此前可为购车者提供最高7500美元的优惠。抵免截止前的抢购潮推动第三季度销量激增，但也透支 了第四季度需求。 特斯拉突然传来利空信号。 据华尔街最新预测数据，预计特斯拉2025年第四季度交付约44.09万辆汽车，同比下降11%，特斯拉交 付量将连续两年遭遇下滑。另据彭博汇编的数据，华尔街分析师对特斯拉2026年的交付预期从超300万 辆大幅下调至约180万辆。 另外，马斯克旗下美国太空探索技术公司（SpaceX）也有重磅动作。北 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the increasing congestion in low Earth orbit due to the rapid growth of satellite numbers, highlighting SpaceX's initiative to lower the altitude of its Starlink satellites to mitigate collision risks and reduce space debris [4][5]. Group 1: SpaceX's Initiative - SpaceX plans to lower the altitude of approximately 4,400 Starlink satellites from about 550 kilometers to around 480 kilometers to create a safer operational environment [5]. - This altitude adjustment aims to facilitate quicker deorbiting of satellites in case of anomalies, thereby reducing the generation of space debris [4][5]. Group 2: Solar Activity and Orbital Decay - The altitude reduction is also linked to solar activity cycles, which affect the density of the upper atmosphere. The next solar minimum is expected in the early 2030s, leading to prolonged orbital decay times for satellites at higher altitudes [5]. - By lowering the altitude, the orbital decay time can be reduced from potentially over four years to just a few months, increasing the decay rate by over 80% [5]. Group 3: Risks of Space Congestion - The article notes that low Earth orbit is becoming increasingly crowded, with SpaceX adding over 3,000 satellites through 121 launches last year, averaging one new satellite every three days [6]. - The World Economic Forum predicts a 190% increase in the number of low Earth orbit satellites over the next decade [6]. Group 4: Collision Risks and Kessler Syndrome - The proliferation of satellites raises the risk of collisions, which can create debris that threatens both active satellites and future space missions, potentially triggering the Kessler Syndrome [7][8]. - Kessler Syndrome refers to a scenario where space debris reaches a critical mass, leading to cascading collisions and making certain orbits unusable [8].

报道提到，美国近地轨道实验室公司（LeoLabs）表示，其已探测到"数十枚"可能由此次事件产生的太空 碎片，而后续技术分析可能还会发现更多碎片。该公司认为，这颗卫星高度迅速下降，表明异常更可能是 由内部问题引发，并非与其他太空物体发生碰撞。 路透社称，美国太空部队负责太空目标追踪的部门尚未就碎片数量回应置评请求。 原标题：SpaceX罕见披露：一卫星疑似"爆炸坠落" 编辑：王乙竹 责编：吴光亮 审核：张松涛 环球时报消息，据路透社19日报道，美国太空探索技术公司（SpaceX）表示，其旗下"星链"（Starlink）的 一颗在轨卫星当地时间17日突发故障，在约418公里高度与地面失去通信联系，并产生"少量"太空碎片。 正准备在太空部署的一批"星链"卫星，图源：SpaceX "星链"在社交平台X的官方账号12月19日发消息称，发生异常的是编号为35956号的"星链"卫星。事发时， 卫星推进剂贮箱发生泄漏，其轨道半长轴在短时间内衰减约4公里，并释放出少量可追踪、相对速度较低 的物体，显示卫星疑似发生爆炸类异常。目前，该卫星仍保持基本完整，正处于翻滚状态，预计将在数周 内坠入地球大气层并完全烧毁。 SpaceX公司 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the emerging competition in the space of AI data centers, driven by tech billionaires like Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos, who are exploring the potential of deploying AI computing capabilities in orbit to address the growing energy consumption challenges on Earth [4][6]. Group 1: Industry Trends - The trend of moving data centers to space aims to overcome physical limitations on Earth, particularly the significant power requirements for AI model training and inference [6]. - Supporters envision a future where satellites equipped with AI chips operate in orbit, powered by abundant solar energy, and transmit processed data back to Earth [6]. - The potential for space-based data centers is highlighted by the fact that satellites can harness solar energy at a rate 30% stronger and up to six times more total energy than on Earth, while also benefiting from near-zero temperatures for cooling [7]. Group 2: Key Players - Elon Musk's SpaceX plans to utilize upgraded Starlink satellites for AI computing, potentially valuing the company at $800 billion [4]. - Jeff Bezos's Blue Origin is also developing technology for orbital AI data centers, with significant progress on the New Glenn rocket project [8]. - Other tech leaders, including OpenAI's Sam Altman and Google's executives, are exploring opportunities in this space, with Google planning to deploy test satellites carrying AI chips by early 2027 [9][10]. Group 3: Challenges and Considerations - Despite the promising outlook, there are significant engineering challenges and cost-effectiveness questions regarding the deployment of data centers in space [5][11]. - Technical hurdles include temperature management, radiation protection, and the transmission of large data volumes back to Earth without delays [11]. - The skepticism surrounding the feasibility of space-based data centers is rooted in concerns about whether they can compete with terrestrial facilities, especially as ground-based power limitations are alleviated [12].

Core Viewpoint - The competition between Elon Musk's SpaceX and Jeff Bezos's Blue Origin to develop orbital AI data centers is intensifying, aiming to leverage heavy rockets to address the significant energy consumption issues on Earth [2][3]. Group 1: Industry Overview - The trend of moving AI data centers to space is driven by the need to alleviate the physical limitations on Earth, particularly the enormous power requirements for AI model training and inference [6]. - Supporters believe that orbital data centers can harness solar energy more efficiently, with satellites potentially receiving 30% more solar intensity and up to six times the total solar energy compared to Earth [6]. - The concept of relocating resource-intensive infrastructure off Earth has been around for years, but advancements in launch and satellite costs are approaching a critical point [6]. Group 2: Key Players - SpaceX plans to utilize an upgraded version of its Starlink satellites to support AI computing loads, potentially increasing its valuation to $800 billion [3]. - Blue Origin is developing the New Glenn rocket, which is designed to launch large numbers of satellites into orbit, with expectations that orbital data centers could become cost-effective within 20 years [9]. - Other tech leaders, including OpenAI and Google, are also exploring opportunities in this emerging market, with Google planning to deploy test satellites carrying AI chips by early 2027 [11]. Group 3: Challenges and Risks - Significant technical challenges remain, including temperature management, cosmic radiation protection, and the transmission of vast amounts of data back to Earth without delays [13]. - Skeptics argue that the costs and risks associated with space-based data centers are underestimated, particularly when compared to ground facilities that may benefit from improved power and resource availability [13]. - Achieving the necessary scale for orbital data centers will require thousands of satellites, posing high demands on current launch capabilities and cost management [13].

人工智能（AI）的万亿级数据中心热潮，正在催生一个全新的战场：外太空。科技亿万富翁埃隆·马斯 克和杰夫·贝佐斯，在火箭和卫星领域的长期竞争之后，正将赛道延伸至轨道AI数据中心，试图将庞大 的计算基础设施搬离地球。 12月10日，据《华尔街日报》援引知情人士报道，马斯克旗下的SpaceX计划使用升级版的"星 链"（Starlink）卫星来承载AI计算负载，并将此技术作为其股份出售的一部分进行推介，该计划可能使 SpaceX公司估值达到8000亿美元。与此同时，一位知情人士称，贝佐斯的蓝色起源（Blue Origin）也已 组建一个团队，就轨道AI数据中心所需的技术进行了超过一年的研发。 这场竞赛的参与者远不止这两位巨头。据报道，OpenAI的首席执行官Sam Altman也曾研究收购火箭运 营商的可能性，以在太空部署AI计算能力。谷歌等科技巨头同样在积极布局。这一新兴趋势预示着AI 和航天两大行业的潜在交汇，其核心驱动力在于解决AI在地球上日益增长的能源消耗难题。 尽管支持者对利用太空无限太阳能的前景感到兴奋，但将数据中心送入轨道面临着巨大的工程障碍和成 本效益的拷问。怀疑论者认为，其技术风险被低估，短期内难以 ...