该行指出，随着国际烟草龙头HNB产品登陆主流市场，公司相关新型烟草产品在新区域的销售有望贡 献增量；英国等欧洲地区有望向盈利能力更强的换弹式、开放式切换；美国电子烟执法力度显著加强， 合规产品份额恢复空间显著。建议关注思摩尔国际，公司雾化电子烟、HNB、雾化美容、雾化医疗等 多元业务逐步进入收获期，后续各类产品全球推出、多点催化可期。 消息面上，思摩尔国际近日公告，与亿纬锂能重续采购框架协议，自2026年1月至2028年12月生效，协 议采购亿纬锂能供应的电池产品。华福证券指出，制定采购协议主要考虑全球电子雾化产品市场持续增 长，公司相关产品订单有望持续增加。 智通财经APP获悉，思摩尔国际(06969)现涨超4%，截至发稿，涨4.6%，报12.96港元，成交额1.46亿港 元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guotai Junan indicates that Smoore International (06969) has shown an upward trend in industry prosperity in Q3, leading to an upward revision of profit forecasts for the company, with expected net profits of 1.03 billion, 1.94 billion, and 2.54 billion yuan for 2025-2027, maintaining a "Buy" rating [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a record revenue of 4.197 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27.2% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 27.5% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 317 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.4% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 5.7%; excluding stock incentive expenses, net profit increased by 4.0% year-on-year and 4.8% quarter-on-quarter [1] Group 2: Business Growth - The OEM and proprietary brand revenues both experienced growth on a quarter-on-quarter basis, with significant increases in HNB and vaping businesses [2] - In the HNB segment, the company supported strategic customers in global market expansion, resulting in a substantial increase in product shipments [2] - In the vaping segment, the company assisted more clients in launching new compliant electronic vaping products due to increased regulatory scrutiny in major global markets [2] Group 3: Industry Outlook - The traditional vaping business is expected to benefit from changes in regulatory environments in the US and Europe, with a potential increase in market share under compliant operations [3] - The new Glo Hilo product in the HNB segment has received positive feedback, with the company aiding clients in nationwide product promotion in Japan by September 2025 and plans to expand into more core markets in the second half of 2025 [3] - The company has developed multiple technology platforms to address various user pain points, and collaborative efforts to accelerate commercialization are ongoing, indicating a clear growth path for the business [3]

Core Viewpoint - Smoore International (06969) reported significant revenue growth in Q3 2025, reaching 4.197 billion yuan, a 27.2% year-on-year increase, but faced declining profitability with a net profit of 317 million yuan, down 16.4% year-on-year [1][11] Revenue Performance - The company achieved a record high quarterly revenue, with total revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 at 10.21 billion yuan, up 21.8% year-on-year [1] - Revenue growth was primarily driven by the enterprise client business and proprietary brand business, with overseas markets, particularly Europe and the US, contributing over 97% of revenue [1][5] Profitability Challenges - Despite revenue growth, net profit has declined for four consecutive years, with a net profit margin dropping to 7.92% in the first three quarters of 2025 [1][10] - The gross margin has also decreased from 43.3% in 2022 to 37.3% in the first half of 2025, indicating pressure on profitability [10] Business Segments - The company operates two main business segments: enterprise client business and proprietary brand business, both focusing on overseas markets, especially Europe [5][6] - The enterprise client business generated 2.734 billion yuan in Europe and other countries in the first half of 2025, a 38% increase, accounting for 57.7% of this segment's revenue [5] - The proprietary brand business saw revenue of 1.07 billion yuan in Europe and other countries, a 15.1% increase, contributing 84% of its segment revenue [5] Research and Development - Smoore International has invested heavily in R&D, with total R&D expenditure of 722 million yuan in the first half of 2025, focusing on electronic nicotine delivery systems [7][9] - The company holds a significant number of patents, with 839 new patent applications globally, indicating a strong commitment to innovation [9] Market Outlook - The company has shifted its market strategy post-2022, focusing on overseas expansion to recover from previous declines in revenue [2][11] - Despite challenges in the US and China markets, the company anticipates continued high growth in Europe and other international markets [6][11] Investment Sentiment - Analysts have mixed views on Smoore International, with some predicting revenue growth driven by electronic cigarette sales but cautioning about rising costs and declining net profit [11] - Others remain optimistic about the company's potential for recovery and growth, particularly in the HNB product line [11]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has shown rapid revenue growth, with a 21.8% year-on-year increase in total revenue for the first three quarters of 2025, amounting to 10.21 billion yuan [8] - The HNB (Heated Not Burned) products are gradually being promoted, with positive feedback from customers and plans for expansion into new markets [8] - The company is expected to benefit from stricter regulations in the electronic vaporization market, leading to a recovery in its business [8] Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for 2023A, 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E are 11,168 million yuan, 11,799 million yuan, 13,722 million yuan, 16,166 million yuan, and 18,395 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of -8.04%, 5.64%, 16.30%, 17.81%, and 13.79% [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for the same years is projected to be 1,645 million yuan, 1,303 million yuan, 1,331 million yuan, 2,219 million yuan, and 2,893 million yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of -34.47%, -20.78%, 2.11%, 66.75%, and 30.37% [1] - The latest diluted EPS (Earnings Per Share) is forecasted to be 0.27 yuan, 0.21 yuan, 0.21 yuan, 0.36 yuan, and 0.47 yuan for the years 2023A to 2027E [1] Market Data - The closing price of the company's stock is 15.77 HKD, with a market capitalization of approximately 89.18 billion HKD [5] - The price-to-book ratio is 3.97 [5] - The company has a total share capital of 6,193.04 million shares [6]

Group 1: Company Developments - Transpire Bio, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Smoore International, has submitted an Abbreviated New Drug Application (ANDA) for Breo® Ellipta® and received acceptance from the FDA on September 23 [1][1] - If approved, Transpire Bio will have a 180-day exclusivity period in the U.S. market for Breo® Ellipta®, which is used for the maintenance treatment of asthma and COPD, with projected sales of $2.02 billion in 2024 [1][1] - This breakthrough highlights Transpire Bio's strategic positioning in the complex generic drug sector and strengthens Smoore International's innovative advantage in the global inhalation drug market [1][1] Group 2: Industry Trends - The FDA has launched a pilot program to enhance the efficiency of pre-market tobacco product applications (PMTAs) for nicotine pouch products, aiming for more frequent feedback and shorter review times [2][2] - The pilot program reflects the FDA's commitment to improving regulatory efficiency while maintaining scientific standards for tobacco product reviews [2][2] - As of now, the FDA has authorized 20 nicotine pouch products, with potential for more varieties in the future [2][2] Group 3: Export Data - In the first eight months of 2025, the export value of e-cigarettes and similar personal vaporizing devices reached $2.116 billion, a year-on-year increase of 14.55%, while other non-combustible nicotine products saw a decrease of 18.31% [3][3] - In August 2025, the export value of e-cigarettes was $301 million, up 34.01% year-on-year, while other nicotine products reached $635 million, down 5.68% year-on-year [3][3] - The average export price for e-cigarettes was $4.46 per unit, with an overall export price of $45.07 per kilogram in August [3][3] Group 4: Regional Insights - The top five export destinations (U.S., U.K., Germany, South Korea, UAE) accounted for 62.32% of total exports in the first eight months of 2025, a slight decrease of 0.56 percentage points year-on-year [4][4] - The U.S. remains the largest market with an export value of $2.199 billion, down 8.67% year-on-year, representing 33.56% of total exports [4][4] - Notable growth was observed in exports to the UAE and Indonesia, with increases of 60.57% and 67.25% respectively, while South Korea, Russia, and the Netherlands experienced significant declines [4][4]

Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 6.013 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.3%, aligning with forecast values and exceeding early-year high single-digit expectations [1] - The net profit was 492 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 28.0%, which is the midpoint of the forecast range, attributed to increased management expenses and legal compliance costs [1] - Adjusted net profit was 737 million yuan, a year-on-year decline of 2.1%, also within the forecast range [1] - The company's gross margin for H1 was 37.3%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points year-on-year, while the adjusted net profit margin was 12.3%, an increase of 2.5 percentage points year-on-year [1] Group 2: Business Segments - The self-owned brand business generated revenue of 1.274 billion yuan in H1, a year-on-year increase of 14.1%, with European revenue growing by 15.1% [1] - The To B business revenue was 4.739 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.5%, with European revenue rising by 38.0% [2] - The HNB market is experiencing rapid growth, with the company collaborating with British American Tobacco on the HNB product gloHilo, which received positive feedback during trials in Japan [2] Group 3: Market Outlook and Projections - The company is adjusting its profit forecasts due to the impact of incentive amortization and other expenses, projecting net profits of 1.33 billion, 2.22 billion, and 2.89 billion yuan for 2025-2027 [3] - The company maintains a "buy" rating, with projected P/E ratios of 100, 60, and 46 for the respective years [3]

Investment Rating - Industry rating is maintained as "Outperform the Market" [9] Core Insights - The report highlights the production launch of Smoore's high-end medical device project, which is expected to generate revenue of 1 billion yuan within three years [4] - France has implemented a ban on disposable e-cigarettes, which may impact the market dynamics in Europe [5] - China's e-cigarette export value for 2024 is projected to be 10.961 billion USD, showing a slight decline of 1.11% year-on-year [6] Summary by Sections Smoore's Medical Device Project - Smoore's skincare brand MOYAL has obtained a Class II medical device certificate and launched a non-invasive aerosol high-end medical device project, focusing on aerosol beauty equipment [4] - The project aims to enhance drug delivery precision and improve skin management for sensitive and problematic skin [4] E-Cigarette Market Dynamics - The ban on disposable e-cigarettes in France is part of a broader regulatory trend in Europe, with the law officially taking effect on February 25, 2025 [5] - In 2024, China's e-cigarette exports were primarily directed to the US, UK, South Korea, Germany, and other countries, with the US accounting for one-third of the total exports [6] Company Performance - Smoore reported a revenue of 8.323 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 4.0%, but a decline in net profit by 11.9% [7] - The company is positioned as a global leader in aerosol technology solutions, with expectations for increased market concentration due to tightening regulations [7] Other Companies to Watch - The report suggests monitoring companies in the aerosol industry such as Winbond Technology, Jinlong Machinery, and others, as well as companies in the tobacco supply chain [8]

Investment Rating - Industry rating is maintained as "Outperform the Market" [9] Core Insights - The report highlights the production launch of Smoore's high-end medical device project, which is expected to generate revenue of 1 billion yuan within three years [4] - The French ban on disposable e-cigarettes officially took effect on February 25, 2025, following legislative approval [5] - China's total e-cigarette export value for 2024 reached approximately 10.96 billion USD, showing a slight year-on-year decline of 1.11% [6] Summary by Sections Smoore's Medical Device Project - Smoore's skincare brand MOYAL has obtained a Class II medical device certificate and launched a non-invasive aerosol high-end medical device project, focusing on aerosol beauty equipment [4] - The project aims to achieve production in the first half of the year and expects to generate 1 billion yuan in revenue within three years [4] E-Cigarette Market Developments - The French government has implemented a ban on disposable e-cigarettes, making it the second EU country to do so after Belgium [5] - The e-cigarette export data for 2024 indicates a total export value of 10.96 billion USD, with the U.S. being the largest market, accounting for one-third of the exports [6] Company Performance - Smoore reported a revenue of 8.32 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 4.0%, with a net profit of 1.06 billion yuan, down 11.9% [7] - The company is positioned as a global leader in aerosol technology solutions, with increasing competitive advantages amid tightening regulations [7]