白糖周报：印度双周糖产大增 国内压榨进入高峰期 研究员：刘倩楠 期货从业证号：F3013727 投资咨询证号：Z0014425 | 第一章综合分析与交易策略 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 第二章核心逻辑分析 | 4 | | 第三章周度数据追踪 | 9 | GALAXYFUTURES 1 综合分析与交易策略 【逻辑分析】 国际方面，巴西甘蔗预计将逐渐进入收榨阶段，巴西糖供应压力将逐渐缓解，市场近期关注点转移到北半球，目前北半球糖产大部分也处于增产周期。 目前印度双周产量较高，增产可能会超预期，给国际糖价以悲观影响。但是由于糖价已经跌至低位且目前大宗商品偏强，因此预计美糖价格短期底部 震荡走势。 国内市场，国内白糖加工成本价格较高，目前广西的糖厂成本大部分都在5400元/吨以上，此外近期外盘美糖走势有筑底迹象，进口巴西糖配额外成 本在5000-5200元/吨，成本端对白糖价格形成一定支撑。但是考虑目前国内正处于白糖压榨高峰期国内糖仍有一定的销售压力，此外25/26年度全球 糖都处于增产预期中，因此预计白糖在上方震荡平台附近有较大压力。短期预计价格震荡。 目录 【交易策略】 1.单边：国际糖价短期预计 ...

Report Overview - Report Title: Sugar Daily Report (September 29, 2025) [2] - Report Type: Agricultural Product R & D Report - Researcher: Liu Qiannan [4] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - Globally, the production increase in major sugar - producing regions is being realized. Brazil is at its supply peak, with a large increase in sugar production recently. However, the ethanol - to - sugar price in Brazil has reached around 16 cents per pound, and the bi - weekly sugar - making ratio is expected to decline, alleviating the pressure of a large increase in sugar production. India's sugar production is also expected to increase significantly this year, and its policies on sugar - to - ethanol and exports are crucial. Thailand and China are also likely to see an increase in sugar production [9]. - In the domestic market, China's sugar imports remained high in August. Domestic sugar inventories are low, and the sales - to - production ratio is high. The domestic market is greatly affected by the trend of foreign sugar. Considering that both foreign and domestic Zhengzhou sugar prices are at a low level and domestic sugar inventories are low, the downward resistance of Zhengzhou sugar is expected to increase [9]. - For trading strategies, it is recommended to short at high prices both for international and domestic sugar, but the downward space is expected to be limited. For arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [10][11][12] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Data Analysis - **Futures Market**: SR09 closed at 5,437, down 15 (- 0.28%), with a trading volume of 1,023 (down 1,554) and an open interest of 4,218 (up 461); SR01 closed at 5,479, up 1 (0.02%), with a trading volume of 143,897 (down 9,408) and an open interest of 417,045 (down 10,429); SR05 closed at 5,437, down 5 (- 0.09%), with a trading volume of 11,392 (down 2,596) and an open interest of 67,055 (up 995) [5]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices in Liuzhou, Kunming, Wuhan, Nanning, Bayuquan, Rizhao, and Xi'an were 5,890, 5,905, 6,080, 5,780, 6,015, 5,900, and 6,270 respectively, with no change. The corresponding basis were 411, 426, 601, 301, 536, 421, and 791 [5]. - **Monthly Spread**: SR5 - SR01 spread was - 42 (down 6), SR09 - SR5 spread was 0 (down 10), and SR09 - SR01 spread was - 42 (down 16) [5]. - **Import Profit**: For Brazilian imports, with an ICE主力 of 16.35, a premium of 0.06, and a freight of 43.00, the in - quota price was 4,495, the out - of - quota price was 5,726, the spread with Liuzhou was 164, the spread with Rizhao was 174, and the spread with the futures market was - 247. For Thai imports, with an ICE主力 of 16.35, a premium of 0.89, and a freight of 18.00, the in - quota price was 4,453, the out - of - quota price was 5,671, the spread with Liuzhou was 219, the spread with Rizhao was 229, and the spread with the futures market was - 192 [5]. 3.2 Market Judgment - **Important Information**: In August 2025, Russia's beet molasses production reached 170,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of 20.85%. Brazil's Minas Gerais state will end the 2025/26 sugarcane harvest earlier than previous years, and the total output will decline. As of mid - September, 58.2 million tons of sugarcane had been crushed, accounting for 75.4% of the expected output, a decrease of about 4.5% compared with the 2024/25 season. Sugar production was 4.2 million tons, and ethanol production was 1.96 million cubic meters. It is expected that 70% of the processing capacity will stop operating before mid - November. In 2025, floods in Pakistan severely damaged the agricultural sector, destroying 2.5 million mu of arable land, including 7% of the arable land in Punjab and Khyber - Pakhtunkhwa [7][8]. - **Logical Analysis**: Internationally, the production increase in major sugar - producing regions is being realized. Domestically, the market is affected by foreign sugar trends, and the downward resistance of Zhengzhou sugar is expected to increase [9]. - **Trading Strategies**: For unilateral trading, short at high prices with limited downward space; for arbitrage and options, wait and see [10][11][12] 3.3 Related Attachments - The report includes 10 figures, showing information such as monthly inventories in Guangxi and Yunnan, production - sales ratios in Guangxi and Yunnan, spot prices in Liuzhou, spot price spreads between Liuzhou and Kunming, basis for different contract months, and spreads between different contract months [12][16][19][21][24][26]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Global sugar production is expected to increase, with the supply surplus in the 2025/26 global sugar market estimated by different institutions. The price of sugar is expected to be volatile and weak. It is recommended to short sugar futures at high prices both in the international and domestic markets, and to hold a wait - and - see attitude towards arbitrage and options [5][7][88] Summary by Directory 1. Preface Summary Market Review - In September, the price center of the international sugar market continued to decline, with the oscillation range shifting to 15 - 17 cents per pound. The domestic sugar price also slightly decreased, with the oscillation range moving to 5400 - 5600 yuan. The significant increase in Brazil's bi - weekly sugar production has put pressure on the market, and the domestic market is greatly affected by the international sugar trend due to large - scale sugar imports. However, due to the relatively low price levels, there is resistance to further price drops [4][9] Market Outlook - Internationally, the increase in sugar production in major global producing areas is being realized. Brazil is in the peak supply period, with a large increase in sugar production recently. It is likely that the bi - weekly sugar production will remain high in the near future. However, the ethanol - to - sugar price in Brazil has reached around 16 cents per pound, and the bi - weekly sugar - making ratio has decreased, which is expected to further decline to relieve the pressure of the large increase in sugar production. In the Indian market, sugar production is expected to increase significantly year - on - year, and sugar production in Thailand and China is also likely to increase. - Domestically, a large amount of imported sugar has entered the market recently. The import volume was high in July and August and is expected to remain high in September and October. The import volume of syrup and premixed powder is also expected to be considerable. There is also an expectation of increased domestic sugar production in the new year, so the supply side of domestic white sugar is under great pressure [5][88] Strategy Recommendation - Unilateral trading: As the increase in international sugar production is being realized, it is recommended to short at high prices. The future supply pressure of domestic Zhengzhou sugar is also relatively large, so it is also recommended to short at high prices. - Arbitrage: Hold a wait - and - see attitude. - Options: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [7] 2. Fundamental Situation Market Review - Similar to the preface summary, in September, the price center of the international and domestic sugar markets declined. The significant increase in Brazil's sugar production has put pressure on the market, but the relatively low price levels provide some resistance to further price drops [4][9] International Supply - Demand Pattern Changes - In the 25/26 sugar - crushing season, the market generally has an optimistic expectation for sugar production. Brazil's sugar production is expected to remain at a high level, with a significant increase in recent bi - weekly sugar production. In the Northern Hemisphere, the rainfall for sugar production is good. India is expected to have a restorative increase in production, with a large year - on - year increase. Thailand's new - season production is expected to increase slightly, and China's sugar production is also expected to increase slightly. - Different institutions have different estimates of the global sugar supply - demand pattern in the 2025/26 season. StoneX estimates a supply surplus of 2.77 million tons, with an estimated global sugar production of 197.5 million tons and consumption of 194.7 million tons. ISO estimates a supply - demand gap of 230,000 tons, with a global sugar production of 180.59 million tons and consumption of 180.82 million tons. Czarnikow estimates a surplus of 6.2 million tons, with a global sugar production of 184.6 million tons and consumption of 178.4 million tons [12][16] Brazil's Bi - Weekly Sugar Production Soars, and the Increase Expectation is Being Realized - The sugar production expectation for Brazil's 25/26 sugar - crushing season is high, with the market expecting the production at the end of 25/26 to be between 44 million and 45 million tons, which is at a high level in recent years. Currently, it is the peak processing period in Brazil, and the final production is likely to be close to the expectation. Although the export expectation is slightly lower year - on - year, the export volume in recent months has been high, and the annual export volume is expected to be considerable. Brazil's sugar is in the inventory - building stage, but the current inventory is still at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years [19] - According to Unica data, in the second half of August, the cane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil was 50.061 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.68%. The sugar production was 3.872 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.21%. From the beginning of the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season to the second half of August, the cumulative cane crushing volume decreased by 4.78% year - on - year, and the cumulative sugar production decreased by 1.92% year - on - year [20][21] - Brazil's National Crop Supply Company (Conab) has lowered the sugar production forecast for the 2025/26 season to 44.5 million tons due to bad weather affecting cane planting, a 3.1% reduction from the April forecast. However, Brazil's sugar production is still expected to increase by 0.8% compared to the previous season [22] - In terms of exports, Brazil is in the seasonal peak export period. The export volume in August was 3.744 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.63%. From January to August 2025, the cumulative export volume was 20.2357 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16.77%. In the first three weeks of September, the export volume was 2.4079 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.12%. As of September 17, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports was 85, and the quantity of sugar waiting to be loaded was 3.2827 million tons, a 3.1% increase from the previous week [23] New Sugar - Crushing Season: Optimistic Production Expectation, and India's Ethanol Policy is Key - **India**: In the 24/25 sugar - crushing season, the estimated sugar production is about 26.1 million tons. The sales quota in September was 2.35 million tons, the same as the previous year. The cumulative sales volume from October 2024 to September 2025 was 27.55 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.6 million tons. The cumulative net export volume as of June was 831,500 tons, which is very small compared to previous years. The approved export quota for the 24/25 season was 1 million tons. - In the 25/26 sugar - crushing season, the weather in the main cane - producing areas is suitable, with sufficient rainfall, and the production is expected to increase restoratively. The market expects the production to be around 35 million tons. The Indian government plans to allow 4 - 5 million tons of sugar to be converted into ethanol production in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season starting in October. If 4 million tons are diverted for ethanol production, the actual sugar production is expected to be around 31 million tons, an increase of nearly 5 million tons compared to this season. The domestic sugar consumption is expected to be between 28 - 29 million tons. The Indian government has confirmed the start of the sugar export plan in the new sugar - crushing season in October 2025, and there will be sufficient export quota space after meeting domestic consumption and ethanol production needs [40][45] - **Thailand**: In the 24/25 sugar - crushing season, the cumulative sugar production was 10.04 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 14%. As of June, the cumulative sugar export volume was 3.927 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 23.3%. However, compared to previous years, the cumulative export volume is still at a low level. It is expected that the export volume will be high in the later stage, but there will be challenges such as quality decline and competition with Brazilian sugar exports in the third quarter. In the new sugar - crushing season, the weather is suitable, and the sugar production is expected to remain at a high level [46] Low Industrial Inventory, and Recent Slowdown in Sales - to - Production Ratio Growth - As of September, the inventory in third - party warehouses in Guangxi was about 467,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 300,700 tons and a year - on - year increase of about 196,900 tons, at a medium level in the past five years. In August, the industrial inventory in Guangxi was 708,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of about 260,000 tons, and in Yunnan, it was 336,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 130,900 tons. - As of August, the cumulative sales - to - production ratio of Guangxi sugar was 89.04%, a 0.62 - percentage - point increase compared to the previous year, and that of Yunnan sugar was 86.09%, a 0.83 - percentage - point decrease compared to the previous year. Both are at relatively high levels in recent years. With the large increase in imported sugar in recent months, the inventory reduction speed has slowed down in August and September. However, due to the low inventory base, the domestic sugar inventory is expected to remain at a low level in September, and the sales and production progress will continue to improve [61] Profitable Import Margin Outside Quotas, and Significant Increase in Import Volume - According to customs data, in August 2025, China imported 830,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 62,700 tons. From January to August 2025, the cumulative import volume was 2.6121 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.86%. From the start of the 24/25 sugar - crushing season to August, the import volume was 4.0739 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.37%. The import volume from Brazil was 797,500 tons, an increase of 143,100 tons from the previous month and 63,500 tons from the previous year, at the highest level in recent years. - According to Ministry of Commerce data, the arrival volume of out - of - quota raw sugar in August was 489,400 tons, at a high level in the same period of previous years, and the forecast arrival volume in September was 300,000 tons. With the large reduction of domestic sugar inventory and the increase in import profit due to the decline in international sugar prices, the import window has been opened. The sugar import volume increased significantly in July and August, and it is expected to remain at a high level in September and October based on the current domestic - international price difference [71][75] Unexpected Decrease in Import Volume of Syrup and Premixed Powder - In general, August - September is the peak import period for syrup and premixed powder. This year, the import volume has decreased sharply. In August 2025, the total import volume of syrup and premixed powder was 115,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 155,700 tons, remaining at a medium level in the same period of the past five years. From January to August 2025, the total import volume was 737,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 713,300 tons, almost halving. From the start of the 24/25 sugar - crushing season to the end of August, the total import volume was 1.3769 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 490,500 tons [84][85] 3. Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendation - The increase in global sugar production is being realized. Brazil is in the peak supply period, but the decline in the sugar - making ratio is expected to relieve the pressure of the large increase in sugar production. India's sugar production is expected to increase significantly year - on - year, and its ethanol and export policies are crucial. Thailand and China's sugar production is also likely to increase. - Domestically, the supply pressure is large due to the large amount of imported sugar and the expectation of increased domestic production. - Strategy: Unilateral trading - short at high prices; Arbitrage - wait - and - see; Options - wait - and - see [88][90]

Report Industry Investment Rating - All three industries (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated as neutral [4][7][8] Core Viewpoints - For cotton, short - term cotton prices are supported by positive market sentiment due to Sino - US negotiations, but the rebound space is limited by the off - season, high retained tariffs, and expected high yields in the new year [3][4] - For sugar, Zhengzhou sugar generally follows the trend of raw sugar. The domestic sugar price is supported in the short term but faces upward pressure limitations from potential imports. Long - term sugar prices may decline if Brazil's high - yield expectations are met [7] - For pulp, although macro - sentiment improvement boosts pulp prices, the approaching off - season and weak terminal demand lead to a lack of industry drivers, and short - term pulp prices are expected to remain in a low - level oscillation [8] Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of cotton 2509 contract was 13,440 yuan/ton yesterday, up 45 yuan/ton (+0.34%) from the previous day. Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,487 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan/ton, and the national average price was 14,567 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton. As of May 15, the national commercial cotton inventory was 3.834 million tons, a decrease of 318,600 tons (-7.67%) from the end of April [2] Market Analysis - The Zhengzhou cotton futures price showed a strong oscillation yesterday. Macro: Sino - US negotiations made substantial progress, improving market sentiment, but the actual tariff on textile and clothing exports to the US remains high. International: USDA adjusted the 25/26 global cotton balance sheet, but there are many uncertainties. Domestic: The new - year cotton planting area is stable with a slight increase, current inventories are decreasing, but it's the off - season and the impact of retained tariffs has not been fully reflected [3] Strategy - A neutral strategy is recommended. Short - term price support comes from market sentiment, but the rebound space is limited [4] Sugar Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of sugar 2509 contract was 5863 yuan/ton yesterday, up 14 yuan/ton (+0.24%) from the previous day. Spot: The sugar price in Nanning, Guangxi was 6150 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton, and in Kunming, Yunnan was 5900 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. As of May 19, Russia's beet planting area reached 1.1609 million hectares, with different progress and weather impacts in different regions [5] Market Analysis - The Zhengzhou sugar futures price showed a strong performance yesterday. Raw sugar was first boosted by lower - than - expected production in Brazil's central - southern region but then pressured by expectations of global supply surplus. Zhengzhou sugar is supported by domestic sales data in the short term but faces import pressure in the long term [6][7] Strategy - A neutral strategy is recommended, with a focus on Brazil's production and domestic import rhythm [7] Pulp Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of pulp 2507 contract was 5420 yuan/ton yesterday, up 10 yuan/ton (+0.18%) from the previous day. Spot: The price of Chilean silver star coniferous pulp in Shandong was 6300 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the price of Russian needles was 5440 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton. The import pulp market had different price trends [7][8] Market Analysis - The pulp futures price closed higher with oscillation yesterday. Macro: The "reciprocal tariff" policy and Sino - US negotiations affected market sentiment. Supply: The foreign quotation decreased, and the inventory was at a high level. Demand: European and domestic demand was weak, and the off - season is approaching [8] Strategy - A neutral strategy is recommended. Although macro - sentiment improves prices, the short - term price is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation due to weak demand [8]