1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market is affected by the geopolitical situation between the US and Iran. The conflict has led to significant fluctuations in commodity prices, and the market is in a state of high uncertainty. The end - conflict signals released by both sides have a certain impact on market sentiment, but the actual supply and demand fundamentals also play important roles in price trends [2][9][93]. - Different industries have different supply - demand situations. For example, in the metals industry, some metals are affected by supply disruptions in the Middle East, while others are influenced by changes in domestic production and demand. In the agricultural products industry, factors such as planting area, harvest progress, and downstream demand affect prices. In the energy - chemical industry, the conflict in the Middle East has a significant impact on the supply and cost of raw materials [24][70][93]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Daily Selections - **Tin**: With the US and Iran expressing the willingness to end the conflict, market risk appetite has recovered, and tin prices are expected to be strong in the short term. Supply has improved significantly, and demand is gradually recovering. It is recommended to buy long positions [2][35]. - **Soda Ash**: Cost support has weakened, and soda ash is oscillating downward. The short - term supply - demand pattern is supply - strong and demand - weak, but the downward space is expected to be limited, with the SA605 contract referring to the range of 1150 - 1250 [3][117]. - **Rebar**: Raw materials are strong, supporting the steel price center. The supply and demand are seasonally rising, and the steel price's upward drive mainly comes from the raw material side [4][53]. - **Live Pigs**: Spot support is limited, and capacity pressure suppresses the far - month contracts. The short - term price may be boosted by second - fattening sentiment, but there is a possibility of further decline [5][74]. 3.2 Macro - finance - **Stock Index Futures**: The Asia - Pacific market is down, and the Q2 style tends to focus on fundamental verification. It is recommended to wait and see [6][8]. - **Precious Metals**: The leaders of the US and Iran have expressed the will to end the war, the US dollar has fallen, and precious metals have rebounded significantly. In the short term, gold may have a technical repair, and silver may also have a band - trading opportunity. Platinum and palladium are in a state of shock and consolidation [9][12]. 3.3 Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Iran's intention to end the war has led to a rebound in copper prices. The supply - demand fundamentals have improved slightly, and the medium - and long - term copper supply - demand contradiction logic has not changed significantly. It is recommended to wait and see, with the main contract focusing on the pressure at 97000 - 98000 [14][18]. - **Alumina**: Warehouse receipts are continuously accumulating, and the market is running weakly. The industry is in a state of over - capacity, and the price is expected to fluctuate around the cost line. It is recommended to maintain a short - selling strategy at high prices [19][21]. - **Aluminum**: The expectation of production cuts in the Middle East is fermenting, and the price is hitting the 25000 mark. The short - term core operating range is expected to be 24000 - 26000, and long positions are recommended to be held [22][24]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The price is strongly supported by the price of primary aluminum, and the upward and downward spaces are limited. The short - term price operating range is expected to be 23000 - 24500 [25][26]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices have rebounded, and spot transactions are average. The supply - demand cycle is weak, and the smelting cost will support the zinc price. It is recommended to take a low - buying strategy on dips [27][30]. - **Tin**: Similar to the analysis in the daily selection, tin prices are expected to be strong in the short term, and it is recommended to buy long positions [31][35]. - **Nickel**: The market is oscillating, and the Indonesian export tax policy is still uncertain. The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 134000 - 140000 [36][38]. - **Stainless Steel**: Cost support is strengthening, and the market is maintaining a strong - oscillating trend. The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 14200 - 14800, and a mid - term low - buying strategy is recommended [38][41]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply expectations are uncertain, and the market has fallen significantly. The short - term market may adjust, and it is recommended to wait and see and conduct short - term range operations [42][45]. - **Polysilicon**: The market is oversupplied, and the futures are oscillating downward. It is recommended to wait and see [46][47]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Production control has not been achieved, and the futures are falling. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 8000 - 9000, and strategies such as short - selling at high prices or long - buying at low prices can be considered [48][51]. 3.4 Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: Raw material prices support the steel price center. Supply and demand are seasonally rising, and the steel price's upward drive mainly comes from the raw material side [52][53]. - **Iron Ore**: Short - term shipments have declined, and the supply - demand pattern has improved. The main contract is expected to oscillate at a high level in the range of 780 - 830 [54][56]. - **Coking Coal**: Auction transactions have declined, and the market is affected by geopolitical risks. It is recommended to wait and see, with the 2605 contract referring to the range of 1050 - 1250 [57][59]. - **Coke**: The spot price increase is about to be implemented, and the market is following the trend of coking coal. It is recommended to wait and see, with the 2605 contract referring to the range of 1600 - 1800 [60][63]. - **Silicon Iron**: It is necessary to pay attention to the change in settlement electricity prices, and the market is in a tight - balance state. It is recommended to conduct range operations in the range of 5800 - 6200 [64][65]. - **Manganese Silicon**: Production cuts have been implemented, and the cost support of manganese ore may weaken. It is expected to oscillate strongly in the range of 5700 - 6800 [67][69]. 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Meal**: The US soybean planting intention has been slightly increased, and the domestic soybean meal spot market is pessimistic. The future supply pressure will increase, and the soybean meal lacks effective support [70][72]. - **Live Pigs**: Similar to the analysis in the daily selection, spot support is limited, and capacity pressure suppresses the far - month contracts [73][74]. - **Corn**: The bottom support is strong, and the decline is limited. It is necessary to pay attention to the subsequent policy release [75][77]. - **Sugar**: The spot trading is average, and the market is maintaining a high - level oscillation. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [78][80]. - **Cotton**: The USDA report shows an increase in the US cotton planting area, and domestic downstream enterprises are cautious in restocking. It is necessary to focus on the actual orders of downstream enterprises, the change in the new - season planting area, and the weather in the main production areas [80][82]. - **Eggs**: Terminal sales are slow, and egg prices are generally falling. It is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation and a weak trend [83][84]. - **Oils**: Indonesia's plan to promote B50 in July has boosted the oil market. Palm oil may rise in the short term, soybean oil is affected by the increase in US soybean planting area, and rapeseed oil is following the international oil market and maintaining a wide - range oscillation [85][87]. - **Jujubes**: The supply - demand pattern is loose, and the price is expected to oscillate and fall to build a bottom. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8500 - 9500 [88][89]. - **Apples**: The Tomb - sweeping Festival stocking is less than expected, and the price is continuing to weaken. The 05 contract is supported by low inventory, and the 10 contract is affected by the weather expectation of the new - season flowering period [90][91]. 3.6 Energy - Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The US and Iran have sent signals to cool down the conflict, and oil prices are running weakly. The short - term may be in a weak - oscillation pattern, but the supply shortage still exists, and it is necessary to pay attention to the negotiation progress and the navigation situation of the Bab el - Mandeb Strait [92][93]. - **PX**: Affected by the geopolitical situation, PX is oscillating at a high level. The short - term supply and demand are weak, but the overall supply - demand in April is expected to be tight, and it is recommended to wait and see [94][95]. - **PTA**: Similar to PX, it is oscillating at a high level. The 4 - month inventory is expected to accumulate, and the demand may drag down the raw materials. It is recommended to pay attention to the oil price trend [96][97]. - **Short - fiber**: It has limited self - driving force and follows the raw materials. It is recommended to pay attention to the restoration of the passage of the Strait of Hormuz and the cost transmission of downstream products [98]. - **Bottle - grade PET**: The supply is expected to be tight in April, and the processing fee is expected to be strong. It is recommended to take the same strategy as PTA [99][101]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply will decrease significantly in the second quarter, and the inventory will be significantly reduced. It still has the potential to rise, but attention should be paid to the risk of a decline after a rise [102]. - **Pure Benzene**: It is oscillating at a high level following the oil price. The supply is expected to decrease, and the supply - demand is expected to improve. It is recommended to wait and see [103]. - **Styrene**: Similar to pure benzene, it is oscillating at a high level following the oil price. The supply - demand has weakened, but it is still relatively tight. It is recommended to take the same strategy as pure benzene [104][105]. - **LLDPE**: The market is falling, and the basis is strengthening. The supply is expected to shrink, and the price has support at the bottom. It is expected to oscillate in a wide range [106]. - **PP**: Upstream production cuts are increasing, and the 05 contract has significantly reduced inventory. It is recommended to go long on the 09 contract on dips [107]. - **Methanol**: The market shows a near - strong and far - weak pattern. It is recommended to reduce long positions [108]. - **Caustic Soda**: The export expectation has been fulfilled, and the market has returned to the fundamentals. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [109][110]. - **PVC**: The chemical market sentiment has subsided, and the price is adjusting. The short - term may be weakly adjusted, and attention should be paid to the geopolitical situation and the actual production suspension rhythm of the devices [111][112]. - **Urea**: There is no strong unilateral driving force, and the price is running in a range. It is recommended to pay attention to the downstream demand and policy dynamics, with the main contract referring to the range of 1830 - 1900 [113]. - **Soda Ash**: Cost support has weakened, and it is oscillating downward. It is recommended to hold short positions [114][117]. - **Glass**: Cost support has weakened, and it is approaching the previous low. It is recommended to hold short positions [114][118]. - **Natural Rubber**: The US and Iran have released signals to end the conflict, and rubber prices are rising. It is recommended to wait and see, with the operating range expected to be 16000 - 17500 [119][121]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The situation in the Middle East is fluctuating, and BR is oscillating at a high level. It still has the potential to rise before the oil transportation in the Middle East is restored, but attention should be paid to the risk of a decline after a rise [121][123]. 3.7 Container Shipping to Europe - The off - season cargo - collection is under pressure, and the overall market is weakly oscillating. The 04 contract is oscillating widely around the spot price center, and the 06 contract is expected to oscillate widely following the geopolitical situation. It is recommended to operate in the range and pay attention to risks [123][125].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - The short - term overseas geopolitical situation may continue to suppress the stock index trend, but after a sharp market decline, the possibility of policy support increases, and the further decline space of the stock index is limited [1] - Multiple factors such as allocation demand, loose monetary policy expectations, supply pressure from fiscal efforts, and profit - taking behavior of trading desks lead to the bond market oscillating [1] - Geopolitical factors in the Middle East cause market sentiment to fluctuate, affecting the prices of various commodities, and most commodities show oscillating trends [1] 3. Summary by Industry Macro - finance - **Stock index**: Short - term geopolitical situation suppresses the trend, but the decline space is limited. Pay attention to long - position layout opportunities after the mitigation of geopolitical disturbances in the Middle East [1] - **Bonds**: Oscillate under the influence of multiple factors [1] Non - ferrous metals - **Copper**: Maintain an oscillating trend due to the complex Middle East situation [1] - **Aluminum**: The price rises due to the attack on UAE aluminum industry. Pay attention to low - buying opportunities as Middle East supply disturbances support the price [1] - **Alumina**: The price is supported to rise, but the supply surplus pattern remains unchanged, and the upward space is limited [1] - **Zinc**: With a weak fundamental outlook, it is considered for short - position allocation. The reversal depends on European natural gas prices [1] - **Nickel**: The price may oscillate at a high level due to Indonesia's policy and cost concerns. Operate with short - term low - buying and control risks [1] - **Stainless steel**: Oscillate. Pay attention to demand acceptance and consider short - term low - buying opportunities [1] - **Tin**: Considered relatively strong in the short term due to potential production impact from diesel supply shortages in major producing countries [1] Precious metals and new energy - **Precious metals**: Concerns about stagflation support price rebounds, but geopolitical risks may cause short - term fluctuations, and prices are expected to oscillate within a range [1] - **Platinum and palladium**: Geopolitical news drives price rebounds, but geopolitical escalation and a strong dollar may suppress prices. They are expected to oscillate widely before the Middle East situation is clear [1] - **Industrial silicon**: Supply resumes production, demand is weak, and explicit inventory is being depleted [1] - **Polysilicon**: Faces liquidity risks [1] - **Lithium carbonate**: Entering the de - stocking cycle, with limited total inventory pressure and a certain discount in futures prices, but demand is average [1] Ferrous metals - **Rebar**: Oscillate. Price drivers come from cost support and low futures price valuations [1] - **Hot - rolled coil**: Supply and demand are both strong and in the de - stocking cycle, but inventory is high. Consider an oscillating approach and gradually enter a new round of positive arbitrage positions [1] - **Iron ore**: The price may oscillate at a high level. Avoid chasing highs or lows and operate within a range [1] - **Coking coal**: There may be a rapid and sharp upward correction, but beware of risks from the development of the war. Exit long positions in time if the Strait is navigable [1] - **Coke**: The logic is the same as that of coking coal [1] Agricultural products - **Palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil**: High crude oil prices and increased US EPA quotas may push up the far - month price center. Pay attention to relevant policies [1] - **Cotton**: Internationally, the global cotton inventory is expected to tighten. Domestically, the price is expected to rise with demand recovery and reduced planting expectations [1] - **Sugar**: Globally, there is a structural surplus. Domestically, the supply is also abundant, and the price is expected to have limited fluctuations with an internal - strong and external - weak pattern [1] - **Corn**: The price is expected to oscillate and correct in the short term, but the correction range is limited [1] - **Soybean**: The May soybean arrival is sufficient, and there is delivery pressure. Wait for the callback to layout long positions in the far - month contracts [1] - **Paper pulp**: The basic situation is weak, and it is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [1] - **Log**: The price is expected to rise due to the impact of the US - Iran war on the outer - market quotation [1] - **Live pigs**: The spot price is gradually stabilizing, and production capacity needs further release [1] Energy and chemicals - **Fuel oil**: Supply - side production cuts, transportation disruptions, and negotiation news disturbances affect the price [1] - **Asphalt**: The impact of Iranian imports on the domestic market is small, and it is relatively weakly affected in the energy sector [1] - **Natural rubber**: Supported by raw material costs, with positive market sentiment, normal climate in the producing areas, and a relatively high futures - spot price difference [1] - **BR rubber**: Affected by the US - Iran situation, prices rise, and the inventory may turn to de - stocking [1] - **PTA**: Affected by crude oil fluctuations and PX supply shortages, the Asian polyester industry chain may face production decline risks [1] - **Ethylene glycol**: Affected by the Middle East situation, the price rises due to raw material shortages [1] - **Crude oil**: Geopolitical factors drive the price to strengthen, and Northeast Asian refineries face supply shortages [1] - **Styrene**: Supply shortages of ethylene and benzene lead to profit inversion for non - integrated producers, and the supply - side crisis intensifies [1] - **Urea**: Export sentiment eases, and there is limited upward space, but there is support from anti - inversion and cost [1] - **Methanol**: Iranian imports are affected, but domestic production is high and inventory is at a historical high [1] - **PE and PP**: Geopolitical tensions limit raw material supply, and the fundamentals are weak [1] - **PVC**: Future prospects are optimistic as capacity is expected to be cleared, but ethylene - based production faces raw material shortages [1] - **PG**: The price is relatively strong, but the demand side is short - term bearish, and there is a divergence between the domestic and international markets [1] Others - **Container shipping on the European route**: Affected by the war, the price is generally stable, and shipping companies have a strong willingness to raise prices after the off - season in March [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content found. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market is significantly affected by the geopolitical conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran, with prices of various commodities fluctuating greatly. The market is constantly adjusting its expectations for the development of the war, and the uncertainty is high [2][3][4]. - Different industries have different supply - demand situations. Some industries are facing supply shortages due to the conflict, while others are affected by demand changes. For example, the energy and chemical industries are strongly affected by supply disruptions, while the agricultural and livestock industries are more affected by factors such as seasonal demand and production capacity [2][66][69]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Selections - **Stainless Steel**: The macro - pressure on stainless steel has improved, and supply - demand is gradually recovering. The raw material cost is strongly supported, and the short - term is expected to maintain a relatively strong shock, with the main contract referring to the 14000 - 14600 range [2][38][40]. - **Methanol**: Affected by the uncertainty of the Middle - East situation, the fluctuation of methanol is magnified. The import reduction dominates the current market, but attention should be paid to the sustainability of demand and policy risks [3][106]. - **Rebar**: The steel price center has risen, and attention should be paid to the pressure at the previous high. The supply and demand of steel are both increasing, and the inventory has entered the destocking cycle [4][50][51]. - **Pig**: The pressure of pig slaughter is large, and attention should be paid to the intensity of supply reduction. The futures and spot prices are expected to continue to bottom out, but the downward space is limited after the futures price falls below 10000 [5][69][70]. 3.2 Macro - finance - **Stock Index Futures**: The A - share market has experienced a significant correction, with the stock index futures following the decline. It is recommended to closely monitor the inflow of broad - based ETFs and wait for the stabilization opportunity [6][7][9]. - **Precious Metals**: The news of the conflict between the US and Iran has repeatedly aggravated market turmoil. The precious metals have rebounded after a sharp decline. In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see for the situation to become clear [10][12][13]. 3.3 Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The situation between the US and Iran may ease, and the copper price has rebounded. The short - term copper price is in the adjustment stage, and the long - term multi - order layout opportunity may be provided by the short - term adjustment [14][17]. - **Alumina**: The speculative demand has increased, and the spot price has continued to rise. The current market is in a state of oversupply, and the short - term strategy is to maintain a short - selling idea at high prices [18][20]. - **Aluminum**: The expectation of the easing of the conflict between the US and Iran has increased, and the downward space of the aluminum price is limited. The short - term aluminum price will maintain a wide - range shock, and the long - term bullish logic still holds [21][23]. - **Zinc**: The social inventory has decreased, and the zinc price has stopped falling and stabilized. The short - term zinc price is under pressure, but the long - term supply - demand fundamentals are relatively stable [26][29]. - **Tin**: Trump's easing of the threat to Iran has improved the market risk sentiment, and the tin price has rebounded at night. If the war is expected to end, long - orders can be considered [29][33][34]. - **Nickel**: The macro - expectation is repeated, and the nickel price fluctuates widely. The short - term is expected to be in a range - bound shock [34][37][38]. - **Stainless Steel**: The macro - pressure has improved, and the supply - demand is gradually recovering. The short - term is expected to maintain a relatively strong shock [38][40]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The macro - expectation is repeated, and the lithium carbonate price fluctuates greatly. The short - term is expected to be in a relatively strong range adjustment [41][44]. - **Polysilicon**: The supply exceeds demand, the spot price has fallen, and the futures are approaching the limit - down. It is recommended to wait and see [45][46][47]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The cost center has moved up, the spot price has risen, and the futures have oscillated upward. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying at low prices [47][49]. 3.4 Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: The steel price center has risen, and attention should be paid to the pressure at the previous high. The supply and demand of steel are both increasing, and the inventory has entered the destocking cycle [50][51]. - **Iron Ore**: The macro - disturbance has intensified, and the iron - making production has accelerated. The short - term iron ore main contract is expected to be in a high - level shock [52][53]. - **Coking Coal**: Some coal types have risen, and the overseas energy commodities have fluctuated greatly. It is recommended to go long on the coking coal 2605 contract at low prices [55][57]. - **Coke**: The coke spot price has increased, and the cost has pushed up the increase expectation. It is recommended to go long on the coke 2605 contract at low prices [58][59]. - **Silicon Iron**: The geopolitical conflict continues, and the supply and demand of silicon iron are both increasing. The short - term price is expected to be in a wide - range shock [60][61]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The market sentiment is changeable, and the cost of manganese silicon has increased. The short - term price is expected to be in a wide - range shock [63][65]. 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Meal**: The US soybeans are in a high - level shock, and the domestic spot price has fallen slightly. The short - term domestic soybean meal is expected to be in a high - level shock [66][68]. - **Pig**: The pressure of pig slaughter is large, and attention should be paid to the intensity of supply reduction. The futures and spot prices are expected to continue to bottom out, but the downward space is limited after the futures price falls below 10000 [69][70]. - **Corn**: Driven by the rise of starch, the corn price is in a high - level shock. The short - term rise of the corn price is restricted [71][73]. - **Sugar**: The spot price has increased, but the transaction is average. The short - term sugar futures are expected to maintain a high - level and relatively strong shock [74]. - **Cotton**: The market trading is stable, and the cotton price is adjusted within the range. The short - term cotton price is expected to be in a wide - range shock [77]. - **Egg**: The demand is boosted by stocking, and the egg price is stable and slightly strong. The short - term egg price is expected to maintain a low - level shock [80][81]. - **Oil**: Affected by geopolitical factors, the fluctuation of oil is intensified. Different types of oils have different market trends [82][84]. - **Jujube**: The supply exceeds demand, and the futures price is in a low - level range shock. The price is expected to be in the range of 8500 - 9500 yuan/ton [85][86]. - **Apple**: The market sentiment is weak, and the futures price has fallen from a high level. The 05 contract is expected to maintain a relatively strong shock, and the 10 contract needs to pay attention to the weather during the flowering period [87][88]. 3.6 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Trump has released a signal of easing, and the oil price has significantly corrected. The short - term oil price is expected to maintain a wide - range shock [90][91]. - **PX**: There are signs of geopolitical easing, and PX has adjusted with the oil price. It is recommended to exit the long - orders and wait and see [92][93]. - **PTA**: There are signs of geopolitical easing, and PTA has adjusted with the oil price. It is recommended to pay attention to the oil price trend [94][95]. - **Short - fiber**: It has limited self - driving force and follows the raw material price fluctuation. It is recommended to pay attention to the passage recovery of the Strait of Hormuz and the downstream cost transmission [96]. - **Bottle Chip**: The supply is expected to be in short supply, and the supply - demand is expected to be tight. It is recommended to go long on the PR2605 call option with a light position [98][99]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Affected by the Middle - East conflict, the cost support is strong, and the destocking amplitude in the near - term is expected to increase. It is recommended to go long on the EG2605 call option with a light position [100]. - **Pure Benzene**: There are signs of geopolitical easing, and pure benzene has adjusted with the oil price. It is recommended to exit the long - orders and wait and see [101][102]. - **Styrene**: There are signs of geopolitical easing, and styrene has adjusted with the oil price. It is recommended to follow the strategy of pure benzene [103][104]. - **LLDPE**: The basis is risk - free, and the transaction is cold. The short - term market is in a wide - range shock [105]. - **PP**: The upstream shutdown and production reduction have increased, and the 05 contract has significantly reduced inventory. It is recommended to gradually take profit on the 5 - 9 positive spread [106]. - **Methanol**: Affected by the uncertainty of the Middle - East situation, the fluctuation of methanol is magnified. It is recommended to reduce the long - orders [3][106]. - **Caustic Soda**: The situation in the Middle - East has escalated, and the caustic soda price is running strongly. The short - term caustic soda price is expected to be strong [107][109]. - **PVC**: The geopolitical disturbance has brought export expectations, and the emotional fluctuation of PVC has been magnified. The short - term PVC price is passively pushed up [110][111]. - **Urea**: The situation in the Middle - East is tense, and the emotional fluctuation of urea has increased. It is recommended to take profit on the long - orders and exit in the short - term [112][114]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply is in a downward trend at a high level, and the cost has boosted the sentiment. The soda ash has rebounded. It is recommended to wait and see on the long - side and pay attention to the 5 - 9 reverse spread [114][118]. - **Glass**: The daily melting volume has continued to decline, and the cost has been boosted. It is recommended to wait and see [114][118]. - **Natural Rubber**: Trump has eased the threat to Iran, the market sentiment has eased, and the rubber price has stopped falling and rebounded. It is recommended to wait and see [119][121]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Under the tense situation in the Middle - East, the cost support of BR is significantly enhanced, and BR is running strongly. It is recommended to pay attention to the risk of falling after the rise [121][123]. 3.7 Container Shipping to Europe - The geopolitical concern has increased, and the European line has significantly risen and then fallen during the session. It is recommended to wait for the market sentiment to cool down and pay attention to the long - order layout opportunity of the peak - season contract [123][124][126].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for individual commodities, the outlooks are as follows: - Oils and fats: Oscillatory [7][8] - Protein meals: Oscillatory [9] - Corn: Oscillatory [10][11] - Hogs: Oscillatory and weakening [11] - Natural rubber: Oscillatory [12][14] - Synthetic rubber: Oscillatory and strengthening [15] - Cotton: Oscillatory and strengthening [16] - Sugar: Oscillatory [18] - Pulp: Oscillatory [20] - Offset paper: Oscillatory [20][22] - Logs: Oscillatory [23] Group 2: Core Views - The overall agricultural market is currently characterized by complex and diverse trends, with different commodities showing various price movements and supply - demand relationships. The market is significantly influenced by factors such as macroeconomics, geopolitics, and seasonal patterns. For example, the hog market is facing high supply and weak demand, while the oil and fat market is affected by geopolitical tensions and supply - demand dynamics in the international market. Group 3: Summary by Commodity Oils and Fats - **View**: Oils and fats continue to oscillate. Geopolitical factors in the Middle East have pushed up oil prices, affecting the cost of vegetable oils. Different types of oils have their own supply - demand situations. For example, palm oil production in Malaysia decreased in the first half of March, but high prices may suppress demand [7]. - **Outlook**: Oscillatory. It is recommended to pay attention to the strategy of buying at stage - low prices [8]. Protein Meals - **View**: Trading is清淡, and the two major protein meals (soybean meal and rapeseed meal) oscillate in a narrow range. International factors such as inflation concerns in the US, geopolitical tensions, and the progress of Brazilian soybean harvest affect the price of soybeans, which in turn impacts protein meals. Domestically, the import cost has slightly decreased, but the decline in the futures price is limited. The spot market has light trading volume [9]. - **Outlook**: Oscillatory [9]. Corn - **View**: The market maintains a tight balance, and the futures price oscillates. The supply is affected by factors such as farmers' selling rhythm and the increase in wheat supply. The demand from downstream enterprises is mainly for replenishment, and the market is in a state of game between supply and demand [10][11]. - **Outlook**: Oscillatory in the short - term. In the medium - term, it has a bullish tendency based on the annual supply - demand balance [11]. Hogs - **View**: Supply remains high, and hog prices continue to decline. In the short - term, supply exceeds demand due to high inventory and low consumption. In the medium - term, the supply pressure will continue until August 2026. In the long - term, hog prices may gradually pick up in the third quarter of 2026 [11]. - **Outlook**: Oscillatory and weakening. It is recommended that the industrial sector consider short - selling hedging opportunities in the first half of the year and anti - arbitrage strategies [11]. Natural Rubber - **View**: The macro - environment is weak, and rubber prices continue to decline. The market is affected by the macro - economic downturn, the expected high yield in the Yunnan production area, and the decline in tire orders to the Middle East [12][14]. - **Outlook**: Oscillatory. It is recommended to wait and see [14]. Synthetic Rubber - **View**: The futures price is relatively firm. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have led to a reduction in the supply of butadiene, driving up the price of synthetic rubber. Although the fundamentals are weak, it is still easy to rise and difficult to fall under the current geopolitical situation [15]. - **Outlook**: Oscillatory and strengthening. The price will remain strong in the short - term if oil prices continue to rise [15]. Cotton - **View**: The macro - sentiment is bearish, and cotton prices continue to correct. The fundamentals are generally good, but there is a lack of new upward drivers. In the long - term, cotton prices are expected to rise, but the upside is limited in the short - term [16]. - **Outlook**: Oscillatory and strengthening. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and maintain a long - term buying strategy on dips [16]. Sugar - **View**: Short - term domestic and international sugar prices oscillate with oil prices. The global sugar market is expected to have a supply surplus in the 25/26 season, but oil price fluctuations may affect the sugar - to - ethanol ratio in Brazil, thereby influencing sugar supply [18]. - **Outlook**: Oscillatory. The domestic price range can be moderately widened to 5100 - 5500 yuan/ton [18]. Pulp - **View**: Pulp shows signs of stabilizing after continuous decline. The fundamentals are weak, with high inventory and low downstream demand. However, the cost provides a certain support [20]. - **Outlook**: Oscillatory. It is expected to maintain an interval - oscillation strategy, with support at 4950 - 5050 yuan/ton and resistance at 5250 - 5350 yuan/ton [20]. Offset Paper - **View**: It oscillates weakly. The market is generally stable, with some price increases. The paper mills have inventory pressure, and the demand from downstream printers is average. The price is expected to rise first and then fall from March to May [20][22]. - **Outlook**: Oscillatory. It is recommended to operate within the range of 4000 - 4400 yuan/ton [22]. Logs - **View**: Geopolitical factors increase the volatility of logs. The price is mainly driven by cost factors, such as the increase in freight and exchange rate. In the short - term, the futures price oscillates strongly, but in the medium - term, it may face pressure due to increased supply [23]. - **Outlook**: Oscillatory. It is recommended to operate within the range of 780 - 830 yuan/cubic meter [23]. Group 4: Commodity Index Data - On March 19, 2026, the comprehensive commodity index was 2569.19, with a change of - 0.50%; the commodity 20 index was 2885.41, with a change of - 1.06%; the industrial products index was 2567.44, with a change of + 0.39%. - The agricultural product index on March 19, 2026 was 968.39, with a daily change of - 0.19%, a 5 - day change of - 1.96%, a one - month change of + 4.04%, and a year - to - date change of + 3.79% [185][187].

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing geopolitical conflicts, particularly between the US and Iran, are driving up oil prices and strengthening the energy and chemical sectors, while the market is adjusting to these developments [1]. Group 1: Oil Market - The Middle East situation remains tense, with the US military striking Iranian oil facilities, leading to increased oil prices due to geopolitical risk premiums. However, the market has already priced in the current level of conflict, suggesting that oil prices may stabilize at high levels in the short term [2][13]. - As of March 5, domestic methanol production facilities operated at an average load of 77.36%, a decrease of 0.88% from the previous period but an increase of 5.72% year-on-year. Coastal methanol inventories stood at 1.4133 million tons, reflecting a 1.04% increase from February 26 and a 35.76% increase year-on-year [2][15]. Group 2: Shipping and Freight - The European shipping index (SCFI) reported a rise of $166 per TEU to $1618, indicating a potential increase in freight rates for the second half of March. However, the market is expected to return to seasonal pricing as geopolitical impacts on freight rates diminish [3][30]. - Maersk and MSC are adjusting their pricing strategies, with Maersk focusing on securing cargo amidst a traditional low season, while MSC has slightly increased rates [3][30]. Group 3: Stock Market - The US stock market experienced a pullback, with a total market turnover of 2.42 trillion yuan. The financing balance increased by 18.278 billion yuan, indicating a shift from expectation-driven to earnings-driven market dynamics as companies begin to disclose annual and quarterly reports [4][11]. - The market is expected to transition from a broad rally to a selective alpha phase, favoring industry leaders with strong earnings while weaker stocks may continue to struggle [4][11]. Group 4: International News - Japan plans to release 80 million barrels of oil from its reserves starting March 16 to mitigate rising oil prices due to tensions in the Middle East. This is the largest release since the establishment of its national oil reserve system in 1978 [7]. - The Japanese government aims to stabilize gasoline prices by providing subsidies to oil wholesalers, reflecting the country's heavy reliance on Middle Eastern oil imports [7]. Group 5: Domestic News - The State Council's food safety office reported a 99.37% compliance rate for major food products in China, indicating a stable improvement in food safety standards over the past four years [8].

Core Viewpoint - The current global market is dominated by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly the strong stance of Iran's new leadership threatening to block the Strait of Hormuz, leading to significant adjustments in oil supply forecasts and a surge in commodity prices [1] Group 1: Geopolitical Impact on Commodities - The International Energy Agency (IEA) has significantly lowered its oil supply growth expectations, labeling the situation as the "largest supply disruption in history," which has resulted in oil prices soaring over 10% [1] - The geopolitical risks are not limited to energy but are also affecting agricultural products through trade routes for palm oil and fertilizers, exacerbating global inflation uncertainties [1] - The U.S. is reportedly planning to temporarily waive the Jones Act to increase domestic transportation capacity in response to rising oil prices [1] Group 2: Key Commodities and Market Reactions - Oil prices continue to rise, with the U.S. President indicating that military actions against Iran will not conclude soon, and the G7 energy ministers have not reached an agreement on releasing strategic oil reserves [2][12] - The European shipping index (EC) has increased by 3.07%, indicating challenges in maintaining pricing amid traditional low demand seasons, with Maersk and MSC adjusting their rates [3][29] - U.S. stock indices have declined, with a market turnover of 2.46 trillion yuan, as the focus shifts from broad market gains to selective investments in companies with strong earnings [3][10] Group 3: Financial and Economic Indicators - The People's Bank of China is committed to maintaining a moderately loose monetary policy to support economic growth, with recent operations indicating a focus on liquidity [7] - The U.S. oil inventory has decreased by 1.7 million barrels as of March 6, 2026, reflecting ongoing supply constraints [13] - The market is expected to transition from a phase driven by expectations to one driven by actual earnings, with a focus on sectors benefiting from policy support and improved performance [10]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market is affected by geopolitical factors, especially the conflict in the Middle East, which leads to significant fluctuations in various commodity prices. The market sentiment is complex, and different sectors show different trends. For example, the stock index shows a rebound trend, while the bond market is under pressure. In the commodity market, energy - related products are highly volatile, and agricultural products, metals, and other sectors also have their own characteristics due to different supply - demand relationships and external factors [20][24][131]. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: On Tuesday, the stock index rebounded across the board, with the Shanghai Composite Index standing above 4,100 points. The trading volume of the whole market reached 2.42 trillion yuan. The stock index futures also rose, but the trading volume and positions of each variety decreased. The market is expected to maintain an upward trend in the shock, and the trading strategy is to buy at dips [20][21]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On Tuesday, the closing prices of treasury bond futures were mixed. The central bank net - injected 52 billion yuan of short - term liquidity, and the market capital was in a narrow - range fluctuation. The export data from January to February was strong, and the risk appetite of the market increased. In the short term, it is recommended to maintain a bearish view [24][25]. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: The USDA monthly supply - demand report is neutral. The short - term bullish factors have been fully reflected, and the fundamentals are under pressure. It is recommended to wait and see. The spread between MRM09 can be considered to narrow [27][28]. - **Sugar**: Internationally, the sugar production increase in India and Thailand is likely to be lower than expected, and the international sugar price is expected to be strong. Domestically, the supply is under pressure, but considering the low price and possible import policy tightening, the domestic sugar price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [33][34]. - **Oilseeds and Oils**: The Middle East geopolitical conflict is the focus. The palm oil in Malaysia is expected to continue to reduce inventory in March, but the high inventory may remain. The domestic oil inventory is at a moderately high level. The oils are expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term [37][38]. - **Corn/Corn Starch**: The USDA report is the same as last month, and the US corn price is stable. The demand for deep - processing increases, and the spot price of corn in the northeast and ports is strong. The 05 - contract corn is expected to fluctuate strongly, with limited upward space in the short term [40][43]. - **Hogs**: The supply pressure is large, and the price fluctuates. The scale enterprises and retail farmers have sufficient supply, and the futures market is expected to fluctuate [45][46]. - **Peanuts**: The spot price is stable, and the futures price fluctuates at the bottom. The import volume decreases, and the oil mill still has profits. It is recommended to go long lightly at dips [48][51]. - **Eggs**: The enthusiasm for culling hens decreases, and the egg price rebounds slightly. It is recommended to short the June contract at high prices [52][54]. - **Apples**: The inventory decreases, and the price is firm. The May contract is expected to fluctuate at a high level, and it is recommended to wait and see [56][57]. - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: The external market rises, and the fundamentals of cotton have certain support. It is recommended to build long positions at dips [60][61]. Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: The black sector fluctuates weakly at night. The steel output increases slightly, and the demand recovers seasonally, but the inventory accumulates. The steel price is affected by overseas geopolitical friction and is expected to maintain a fluctuating trend [63][64]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The price fluctuates greatly, mainly following the changes in crude oil. The fundamentals are secondary, and it is recommended to wait and see [65][67]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply is disturbed again, and the price fluctuates. The geopolitical conflict affects the market sentiment, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely [68][69]. - **Ferroalloys**: The short - term driving force is strong, but the profit - loss ratio decreases. It is recommended to partially take profits on long positions [70][71]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Gold and Silver**: The risk sentiment improves, and the prices of gold and silver are repaired. It is recommended to hold long positions cautiously based on the 20 - day moving average [73][74]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: The platinum is expected to be bullish in the short term, and the palladium may be affected by the macro - environment. It is recommended to go long cautiously at dips [76][77]. - **Copper**: The geopolitical risk disturbs, and the price fluctuates. It is recommended to buy lightly after the price stabilizes after a pull - back [78][81]. - **Alumina**: The price falls with the market sentiment, and the freight rate rises. It is expected to fluctuate after the price returns to rationality [83][85]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The geopolitical conflict affects the supply, and the price fluctuates widely. It is recommended to go long at dips [86][90]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It fluctuates widely with the aluminum price. It is recommended to go long at dips [91]. - **Zinc**: Be vigilant about the impact of capital on the price. It is recommended to hold long positions and buy at dips [92][94]. - **Lead**: It fluctuates within a range. It is recommended to buy at lows and sell at highs [95][97]. - **Nickel**: The macro factors dominate the market. It is recommended to take a long - only approach [99][100]. - **Stainless Steel**: It is supported by cost and follows the nickel price. It is recommended to take a long - only approach [103][105]. - **Industrial Silicon**: It fluctuates within a range, with a price reference of (8000, 8900) [106]. - **Polysilicon**: The fundamentals have no obvious improvement, and the price fluctuates weakly. It is recommended to pay attention to the positive spread opportunity [107][109]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: It fluctuates at a high level under macro influence. It is recommended to take a long - only approach [110][113]. - **Tin**: The uncertainty in the Middle East increases, and the price may fluctuate in the short term. It is recommended to wait for the market to stabilize and pay attention to the downstream consumption [113][116]. Shipping and Carbon Emissions - **Container Shipping**: The Middle East geopolitical situation cools down, and the freight rate of the mainstream shipping companies in the second half of March is gradually clear. It is recommended to wait and see [117][120]. - **Dry Bulk Freight**: The short - term capacity allocation may lead to the differentiation of the large and small ship markets. It is necessary to pay attention to the impact of weather on global shipments in the second half of the year [122][124]. - **Carbon Emissions**: In the domestic carbon market, the short - term price increase is limited, and the medium - and long - term price center is expected to be higher. In the EU carbon market, the price is supported in the short term, but the long - term trend depends on multiple factors [125][128]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The geopolitical information is repeated, and the oil price fluctuates sharply. It is expected to fluctuate at a high level [131][132]. - **Asphalt**: The cost fluctuates under the geopolitical conflict. The supply is expected to decrease, and the demand is expected to recover slowly. It is expected to fluctuate weakly [134][135]. - **Fuel Oil**: Pay attention to the geopolitical fluctuation risk. The supply is expected to tighten, and the demand in Singapore is expected to increase. It is recommended to take profits on long positions in FU2605 and narrow the spread between LU05 and FU05 [136][138]. - **LPG**: It follows the oil price trend and fluctuates weakly [139][141]. - **Natural Gas**: The geopolitical risk is repeated, and the price fluctuates sharply. It is recommended to wait and see [142][144]. - **PX & PTA**: PX enters the maintenance season, and the supply is expected to shrink. It is necessary to prevent the risk of price decline [146][147]. - **BZ & EB**: The listed price of the main refineries is lowered. The supply of benzene and styrene may be affected, and it is necessary to prevent the risk of price decline [149][150]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The Iranian device stops, and the Middle East import source is affected. The supply - demand structure improves, and it is expected to fluctuate widely [151][152]. - **Short - fiber**: The supply - demand situation is good, but it is necessary to prevent the risk of price decline [153][154]. - **Bottle Chips**: The de - stocking amplitude in the first quarter is limited, and it is necessary to prevent the risk of price decline [155][156]. - **Propylene**: The supply and demand are supported, and it is necessary to prevent the risk of price decline [157][158]. - **Plastic PP**: The PE capacity utilization rate declines. It is recommended to wait and see for the L and PP main contracts and hold short positions for the spread between L2605 and PP2605 [159][161]. - **Caustic Soda**: It weakens, and it is recommended to wait and see [162][163]. - **PVC**: It fluctuates mainly. It is recommended to go long at lows and not chase the high [164][166]. - **Soda Ash**: The fluctuation is amplified, and it fluctuates widely with a weak direction. It is recommended to wait and see for the spread operation [167][169]. - **Glass**: The fluctuation is amplified, and it fluctuates widely with a weak direction. It is recommended to short at high prices [170][172]. - **Methanol**: It fluctuates widely. It is expected to follow the decline of crude oil, and it is necessary to operate cautiously [173][174]. - **Urea**: It mainly follows the rise. The supply is at a high level, and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to hold positions cautiously [176][178]. - **Pulp**: The high inventory suppresses the valuation. It is expected to fluctuate around the cost line, and it is recommended to sell the put option of SP2605 - P - 5200 [180][183]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: The market is loose, and the paper price rebounds weakly. It is recommended to short at high prices [184][186]. - **Logs**: The external market price rises, and the spot price is stable and strong. It is recommended to go long at dips [187][189]. - **Natural Rubber and No. 20 Rubber**: The price difference between the cup and the latex in Thailand continues to strengthen. It is recommended to wait and see for the RU and NR main contracts and sell the put option of RU2605 - 15750 at an appropriate time [190][194]. - **Butadiene Rubber**: The production of high - cis butadiene rubber increases. It is recommended to wait and see for the BR main contract [195][197].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report analyzes various commodities in different sectors, including macro - finance, non - ferrous metals, precious metals and new energy, industrial products, and agricultural products, under the backdrop of the escalating Middle - East situation and other factors. It provides trend judgments and logic viewpoints for each commodity, suggesting corresponding investment strategies [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - **Stock Index**: Pay attention to the emotional resonance of Asia - Pacific stock markets, especially the market - rescue strategies in South Korea, and the evolution of the Middle - East conflict. If the geopolitical situation eases, the short - term adjustment of the stock index will bring good long - position layout opportunities [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has indicated short - term interest rate risks. Pay attention to the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision recently [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The deterioration of the Middle - East situation has suppressed market risk appetite, and the continuous accumulation of copper inventories at home and abroad has led to a weak adjustment of copper prices [1]. - **Aluminum**: Although the Middle - East situation has suppressed market risk appetite, the supply disturbance of electrolytic aluminum in the Middle - East has been increasing, and the rising energy prices have increased costs, so aluminum prices have continued to rise. Keep an eye on the supply disturbance in the Middle - East [1]. - **Alumina**: The operating capacity of domestic alumina has decreased, but the inventory has further accumulated, and it will operate in the short - term in a volatile manner [1]. - **Zinc**: The escalation of the conflict between the US, Israel and Iran has raised concerns about zinc ore supply in Iran, which may boost zinc prices in the short term. After the holiday, pay attention to the resumption of work and production of downstream industries [1]. - **Nickel**: Geopolitical risks have increased market risk aversion. The expectation of tightened RKAB quotas for nickel mines in Indonesia has resurfaced, and the approval of RKAB quotas is slow during Ramadan. Nickel ore premiums remain high. The nickel price may fluctuate widely, mainly affected by the resonance of the non - ferrous sector. It is suggested to go long at low prices and control risks [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: Raw material prices have risen after the holiday. Steel mills reduced production in February but plan to increase production significantly in March. Social inventories have increased after the holiday. The stainless - steel futures will fluctuate widely. Pay attention to the demand recovery after the holiday. It is recommended to look for long - position opportunities at low prices and control risks [1]. - **Tin**: The escalation of the Middle - East situation is beneficial to war metals, and tin is expected to continue to strengthen. In the short - term high - volatility situation, it is recommended that investors focus on risk management and profit protection [1]. Precious Metals and New Energy - **Precious Metals (Gold, Silver, Platinum)**: The inflation risk has eased, the conflict between the US and Iran continues, the US dollar index has declined, and precious metal prices have rebounded from the bottom. They are expected to stabilize and fluctuate in the short term [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Production in the northwest has increased while that in the southwest has decreased. The production schedules of polysilicon and silicone in December have declined [1]. - **Polysilicon**: It is recommended to take a wait - and - see attitude due to liquidity risks [1]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Energy storage demand is strong, there is battery export rush, and there are disturbances at the mining end [1]. Industrial Products - **Steel Products (Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil)**: The inventory of rebar is at a low level with weak demand expectations, and the price will fluctuate. The inventory of hot - rolled coil is at a historically high level, and it is necessary to test the de - stocking pressure. The price will fluctuate. After taking profit on the long - basis position, wait for the next entry opportunity [1]. - **Iron Ore**: There is significant upward pressure, and the oversupply logic remains unchanged. Wait for the price to rebound to the pressure level and then enter short - positions [1]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The fermentation of the geopolitical conflict has driven up the prices of energy - chemical products, which in turn has led to the strengthening of coking coal and coke. Although there is news of the first - round price cut for spot goods, the market is focused on the development of the Middle - East situation. Avoid short - positions in energy - related varieties and reduce long - positions in a timely manner. The industry can establish a cash - and - carry arbitrage position in the 05 contract [1]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: The short - term supply and demand of glass are both weak, the expected reduction in supply has increased, and the cost is supported by the strengthening of energy prices due to the intensified geopolitical conflict. Soda ash mainly follows the trend of glass. In the short term, it is affected by the geopolitical conflict, and in the medium term, the supply - demand situation is looser, and the price is under pressure [1]. Agricultural Products - **Oils and Fats**: The sharp increase in crude oil prices will drive up the prices of oils and fats by increasing the demand expectation from the biodiesel end. However, the current fundamentals of oils and fats are under pressure, such as the high inventory of palm oil in Malaysia, the pressure of the production season and consumption off - season. Be vigilant against the decline of oils and fats after the stagnation of crude oil prices [1]. - **Cotton**: There is a strong expectation of a domestic new - crop harvest, and the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint. The downstream operating rate remains low, but the inventory of spinning mills is not high, and there is a rigid restocking demand. The cotton market is currently in a situation of "having support but no driving force". In the future, pay attention to the policies in the No. 1 Central Document in the first quarter next year, the intention of cotton - planting area next year, the weather during the planting period, and the demand during the peak seasons [1]. - **Sugar**: The global sugar market is in surplus, and the domestic new - crop supply has increased. There is a strong consensus among short - sellers. If the futures price continues to fall, there will be strong cost support below, but the short - term fundamentals lack continuous driving force. Pay attention to the changes in the capital side [1]. - **Corn**: The progress of grain sales at the grassroots level in the Northeast is relatively fast, and the pressure of ground - stored grain is expected to be limited. The downstream aquaculture inventory has not significantly decreased, which supports the feed demand. After the holiday, the inventories of channels and downstream are low, and the restocking demand supports the futures price to be strong in a volatile manner. However, be vigilant against the negative feedback of high corn prices, such as the release of policy grains like aged rice and the change in import policy orientation. Be cautious when going long unilaterally [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: The Middle - East conflict has brought a risk premium to commodities and increased freight rates. However, under the pressure of the Brazilian harvest, the FOB price of soybeans is under pressure. Under the suppression of the global large supply, the upward space of the soybean meal futures price is limited in the short term. In the later stage, pay attention to the release of Brazilian selling pressure, Sino - US trade dynamics, and domestic reserve release [1]. - **Paper Pulp**: There is no obvious positive news for softwood pulp during the Spring Festival, and the previous positive factors on the supply side have basically faded. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 5200 - 5400 in the short term. Pay attention to the port inventory after the holiday [1]. - **Logs**: The spot price of logs has risen. The log arrival volume in February has decreased, and the expectation of an increase in the overseas offer price is relatively clear, so the futures price has an upward driving force [1]. - **Hogs**: The spot price has gradually stabilized recently. Supported by demand, the slaughter weight has not been fully cleared, and the production capacity still needs to be further released [1]. Energy Chemical - **Fuel Oil**: The escalation of the Middle - East situation due to the war between the US, Israel and Iran, the concern of oil and gas supply interruption caused by the obstruction of the Strait of Hormuz transportation, and the positive sentiment in the commodity market with the recovery of capital risk - appetite have affected the price [1]. - **Asphalt**: The import of Iranian asphalt has little impact on the domestic market, but the price of crude oil, which affects the cost, is transmitted to asphalt, and the impact in the energy varieties is relatively weak [1]. - **BR Rubber**: The cost end of butadiene has strong support, and the profit of private cis - butadiene rubber plants is still in a loss state, with an increased expectation of maintenance and production reduction. There is an expectation of phased inventory accumulation in the fundamentals of both BD and BR. Affected by the Middle - East geopolitics, the short - term futures price is expected to fluctuate widely, and there is an upward expectation in the long - term [1]. - **PTA**: Asian aromatics have been significantly strengthened by geopolitics, some overseas PTA factories are facing operational pressure due to poor profits, and the supply is expected to tighten from March to May when the major refinery turnaround season comes [1]. - **Ethylene**: Although the situation in Iran is unclear and the crude oil market is tense, the production profit rate of naphtha cracking has declined, and the demand for naphtha is continuously weak. Some large - scale ethylene production facilities are restarting or newly supplying [1]. - **Short - Fiber**: The domestic PTA maintains high - level operation, and the domestic demand has declined. The tense geopolitical situation in the Middle - East brings short - term energy price fluctuation risks, and the short - fiber price will continue to closely follow the cost fluctuations [1]. - **Styrene**: Geopolitical factors have worried the market about refinery load reduction. Although the production economy of factories remains stable, the demand is expected to gradually recover from the end of February [1]. - **Methanol**: The export sentiment has eased, and the domestic demand is insufficient, so the upward space is limited, but there is support from anti - dumping and the cost end. The Iranian import has a significant impact, and the conflict has caused some domestic methanol production facilities to stop work, but the domestic production is at a high level, and the inventory is at a historically high level [1]. - **PVC**: In 2026, there will be less global production capacity put into operation, and the differential electricity price in the Northwest is expected to be implemented, which will force the clearance of PVC production capacity, and the future expectation is optimistic. The intensification of geopolitical conflicts has increased freight rates, and the ethylene - based method is facing a shortage of raw materials [1]. - **LPG**: The 3 - month CP price is flat, and the near - month purchase is still relatively tight. The premium of the Middle - East geopolitical conflict has rebounded, and the PG trend is strong. The overseas cold - wave driving logic is gradually weakening, and the basis is expected to repair and expand. The domestic PDH operating rate has declined, and the profit is expected to seasonally recover, which suppresses the upward movement of the LPG futures price in the short term. The ports are continuously de - stocking, but the domestic civil LPG is sufficient, resulting in the differentiation of the internal and external market trends [1]. Others - **Shipping**: The price increase has generally stabilized, but it is currently affected by the war sentiment and is quite enthusiastic. The Houthi armed forces have regained control of the Red Sea, and airlines are expected to have a strong willingness to stop the price decline and increase prices after the off - season in March [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The geopolitical conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran has significantly impacted the global commodity market, leading to increased market volatility and uncertainty. The conflict has affected the supply and prices of various commodities such as energy, metals, and agricultural products. [122][62][109] - The performance of different industries and commodities varies. Some industries are supported by cost or demand, showing a strong or stable trend, while others are under pressure due to factors such as oversupply or weak demand, showing a weak or volatile trend. [28][34][57] Summary of Each Section Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: After the Spring Festival, the stock index showed differentiation. The A - share market was driven by price - increase expectations, with the main driving force coming from improved product supply - demand relationships and abundant social funds. The geopolitical conflict may lead to market fluctuations, but the stock index is still expected to maintain an upward trend. [21][22] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The short - term market risk - aversion sentiment has increased due to the Middle East geopolitical conflict, and the bond yield is expected to decline. However, the strengthening of the bond market may not be sustainable. The "Two Sessions" policy stance may focus on promoting domestic technology development and industrial transformation, and the impact of bond supply on the market is expected to be limited. [24] Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: Geopolitical factors and weather conditions have increased market uncertainty. The US soybean processing volume and Brazilian soybean harvest are affected by various factors. The domestic soybean market is expected to be volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term. [27][28] - **Sugar**: International sugar production is expected to decline, but the start of the Brazilian new - sugar season in April and May may increase supply pressure. The domestic sugar market has supply pressure but is also supported by low prices and potential import - policy tightening. It is expected to be in a bottom - oscillating state, with a short - term slightly stronger trend. [29][31][32] - **Oils**: The escalation of the Middle East geopolitical conflict may drive up the price of crude oil, and the price of oils is expected to follow the upward trend. The export of Malaysian palm oil decreased in February, and the supply pressure of domestic soybean oil may be postponed. The overall domestic oil inventory is at a moderately high level, and the price is expected to be volatile in the short term. [33][34] - **Corn/Corn Starch**: The price of US corn has risen, and the domestic corn spot price has increased due to factors such as the start of deep - processing enterprises and the increase in corn supply in North China. However, considering the post - festival selling pressure, the upward space of the futures price is limited. [36][37] - **Hogs**: The overall supply of hogs is still large, and the price is generally in a downward trend. However, due to factors such as the good completion of large - scale enterprise slaughter and the decrease in the inventory of secondary fattening, the short - term spot price may be supported, and the downward space of the futures price is also limited. [38][39] - **Peanuts**: The spot price of peanuts is stable, and the price of peanut oil is also stable. The supply of peanut kernels for oil is relatively loose, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range. [41][42] - **Eggs**: After the Spring Festival, the egg market enters the off - season. Although the inventory has been alleviated to some extent, the overall de - stocking has weakened due to the good egg price performance. It is recommended to short the June contract. [44][47] - **Apples**: The inventory of apples has decreased significantly recently, and the demand is expected to improve further in March and April. The high cost of apple warehouse receipts also supports the price. It is recommended to go long on the May contract. [48][50][51] - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: The fundamentals of cotton are relatively stable, with no obvious negative factors. The global cotton supply is expected to be slightly tight, and the signing situation has improved. It is recommended to go long on Zhengzhou cotton at low prices. [53][55] Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: The fundamentals of the steel market continue to weaken, with reduced production, increased inventory, and weak demand. However, the geopolitical conflict may drive up the price of non - ferrous metals, leading to a short - term strong - oscillating trend in the steel price. [57] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The international geopolitical conflict may support the domestic coking coal price. The current coking coal price has basically priced in the existing negative factors, and the downward space is limited. It is recommended to go long at low prices. [59][60] - **Iron Ore**: The geopolitical conflict has little impact on the supply of domestic iron ore. The supply of iron ore is abundant, and the demand is difficult to improve significantly. The iron ore price is expected to oscillate. [62] - **Ferroalloys**: The price of ferrosilicon is expected to be strong due to cost support, and the price of ferromanganese silicon may be adjusted after a rapid increase. It is recommended to hold long positions in ferrosilicon and partially take profits in ferromanganese silicon. [64][65] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Gold and Silver**: Geopolitical risks have led to a sharp rise in the price of gold and silver. The market is dominated by risk - aversion sentiment, and the price is expected to continue to be strong. It is recommended to take partial profits on long positions and hold the remaining positions. [67][68] - **Platinum and Palladium**: The price of platinum and palladium is mainly affected by the risk - aversion demand of funds. The price of platinum is expected to be slightly strong in the short term, while the price of palladium is expected to follow the trend of platinum. It is recommended to go long on platinum at low prices and wait and see on palladium. [70][71][72] - **Copper**: The short - term copper price is in a high - level consolidation state. Although the geopolitical conflict has limited direct impact on copper, long - term war may support the copper price. It is recommended to buy on dips in the long term. [74][76] - **Alumina**: The spot price of alumina is supported, but the expectation of oversupply restricts the price. The price is expected to decline in an oscillating manner. [79] - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The geopolitical conflict may increase the price volatility of electrolytic aluminum. It is expected to be strong in an oscillating manner. [80][81] - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The price of cast aluminum alloy is expected to fluctuate with the aluminum market. It is expected to be strong in an oscillating manner. [82][83] - **Zinc**: The price of zinc is affected by geopolitical factors and is expected to be volatile. It is recommended to buy on dips after the price stabilizes. [84][85][86] - **Lead**: The price of lead is expected to be in a range - bound oscillation. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options. [87][88][89] - **Nickel**: The price of nickel is mainly affected by macro factors, and the supply - demand relationship is still in a surplus state. However, the expected tight supply in Indonesia may support the price. It is recommended to pay attention to the macro - capital trend. [90][91] - **Stainless Steel**: The cost of stainless steel is supported by the price of nickel ore, and the price follows the trend of nickel. It is recommended to hold long positions at low prices. [93][94] - **Industrial Silicon**: The supply and demand of industrial silicon are in a state of multiple factors, and the price is expected to oscillate. It is recommended to wait and see. [96][97] - **Polysilicon**: The fundamentals of polysilicon are bearish, and it is recommended to wait and see the spot trading situation. [98][99] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price of lithium carbonate is at a high level, and it is necessary to pay attention to the resistance at the previous high. It is recommended to hold long positions at low prices. [102][105] - **Tin**: The price of tin is in a high - level consolidation state. The impact of the Indonesian tin export ban is limited, and it is recommended to wait and see. [106][108] Shipping and Carbon Emission - **Container Shipping**: The escalation of the Middle East situation has led some shipping companies to reroute to the Cape of Good Hope. The spot freight rate is in the off - season, but the conflict may drive up the freight rate. It is recommended to go long on dips. [109][110] - **Dry Bulk Freight**: The deterioration of the trade environment in the Persian Gulf may boost the freight rate of small - sized ships in the short term. The BDI index has declined slightly, but the performance of small and medium - sized ship markets is better. It is necessary to pay attention to the development of the Middle East geopolitical situation. [112][113][115] - **Carbon Emission Market**: The domestic carbon market price is stable but lacks activity. The EU carbon market has not摆脱 the downward trend. In the short term, the domestic carbon price is expected to be strong in an oscillating manner, while the EU carbon market is affected by policy uncertainty. [116][119][120] Energy and Chemical Industry - **Crude Oil**: The conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran has led to a significant rise in the price of crude oil. The price of Brent crude oil is expected to be in the range of $78 - 85 per barrel. It is recommended to take profits on out - of - the - money call options. [122] - **Asphalt**: The price of asphalt is supported by cost but is affected by weak demand. It is recommended to hold long positions in the BU2606 contract and pay attention to geopolitical risks. [124][125] - **Fuel Oil**: Geopolitical factors are the main driving force for the price of fuel oil. It is necessary to pay attention to the supply changes in Iran and Russia. It is recommended to hold long positions in the FU2605 contract and not chase the high price. [127][129] - **LPG**: The escalation of the Middle East situation has increased the cost support of LPG, and the price is expected to rise significantly. [130] - **Natural Gas**: The conflict in the Middle East has led to a supply - side risk in the natural gas market, and the price is expected to rise significantly in the short term. It is recommended to buy a TTF straddle option. [133][134] - **PX & PTA**: The supply of PTA is gradually returning, and the price is expected to follow the cost and strengthen. It is recommended to hold long positions. [137][139] - **BZ & EB**: The supply of benzene and styrene is returning, and the price is expected to follow the cost and strengthen. It is recommended to hold long positions and conduct reverse arbitrage. [140][142] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply - demand structure of ethylene glycol has improved, but the inventory has been continuously increasing. The price is expected to be in a wide - range oscillation. [144][145] - **Short - Fiber**: The price of short - fiber is expected to follow the cost and strengthen. It is recommended to hold long positions and reduce the processing cost spread at high prices. [146][147] - **Bottle Chips**: The supply of bottle chips is expected to be tight, and the price is expected to follow the cost and strengthen. It is recommended to hold long positions. [148][149] - **Propylene**: The supply of propylene is partially returning, and the price is expected to follow the cost and strengthen. It is recommended to hold long positions. [150][151][153] - **Plastic PP**: The inventory of PP at ports has been increasing. It is recommended to try to go long on the L 2605 contract at low prices and wait and see on the PP 2605 contract. [154][155] - **Caustic Soda**: The price of caustic soda is expected to be weak in an oscillating manner. It is recommended to wait and see. [156][158] - **PVC**: The price of PVC is expected to follow the upward trend of the market. It is recommended to follow the market trend. [159][161] - **Soda Ash**: The price of soda ash is expected to be strong in an oscillating manner. It is recommended to go long at low prices and not chase the high price. [162][163][164] - **Glass**: The price of glass is affected by macro - sentiment and is expected to be strong in an oscillating manner, but the fundamentals are still weak. It is recommended to short at high prices or sell call options. [165][166][167] - **Methanol**: The price of methanol is expected to rise strongly due to the geopolitical conflict. It is necessary to pay attention to the development of the Middle East situation. [168][169] - **Urea**: The supply of urea is at a high level, and the demand is expected to start. The price is expected to be strong. It is recommended to hold long positions. [170][173] - **Pulp**: The price of pulp is expected to be strong in the short term, but the market is still in a state of oversupply. It is recommended to go long at low prices and pay attention to the impact of the US - Iran conflict on European pulp supply. [174][175][178] - **Offset Printing Paper**: The high inventory of offset printing paper restricts the price rebound. It is recommended to short at high prices. [179][180] - **Logs**: The supply and demand of logs are both weak, and the price is expected to be supported by cost. It is recommended to hold a small number of long positions. [182][183] - **Natural Rubber and No. 20 Rubber**: The inventory of tires has decreased month - on - month. It is recommended to short a small amount of the RU 05 contract and wait and see on the NR 05 contract. [184][185][187] - **Butadiene Rubber**: The inventory of tires has decreased month - on - month. It is recommended to reduce the holding of the BR04 contract and hold long positions in the BR 05 contract. [188][189][191]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - After the holiday, A-shares are likely to have a restorative rebound. Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has indicated interest rate risks in the short term. The macro situation during the holiday is favorable for the market, and the prices of various commodities have different trends [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - **Stock Index**: Before the holiday, the A-share market adjusted significantly due to the rise of risk aversion. During the holiday, the Hong Kong stock market rebounded, and technology sectors such as AI and robotics attracted wide attention. It is expected that A-shares will have a restorative rebound after the holiday [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has indicated interest rate risks in the short term. Attention should be paid to the interest rate decision of the Bank of Japan [1]. Non-ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The macro situation during the holiday is favorable for the market, and the copper price may fluctuate strongly in the short term [1]. - **Aluminum**: The macro situation is mixed, and the aluminum price will fluctuate in the short term. The operating capacity of domestic alumina has decreased, and there are disturbances in the supply of a large alumina enterprise in North China. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of going long at a low price [1]. - **Zinc**: The negotiation between the United States and Iran has reached a deadlock, which has led to concerns about the supply of Iranian zinc mines and supported the zinc price in the short term. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production of downstream enterprises after the holiday [1]. - **Nickel**: The LME nickel price rose slightly during the holiday. Although the tailings landslide in the Indonesian QMB project has limited actual impact, there are still concerns about nickel ore supply. The nickel price will fluctuate strongly in the short term and is still affected by the resonance of the non-ferrous metal sector. Attention should be paid to changes in Indonesian policies and macro sentiment. In the long term, the high global nickel inventory may still have a suppressing effect. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long at a low price and control risks [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: The raw material nickel-iron price remains firm, the spot transaction of stainless steel is weak, the social inventory has increased slightly, and the steel mills' maintenance and production reduction have increased in February. The stainless steel futures will fluctuate strongly. Attention should be paid to the demand recovery after the holiday. It is recommended to go long at a low price in the short term and control risks [1]. - **Tin**: The uncertainty of recent macro events is relatively large. Under the influence of US tariffs and geopolitics, the short-term volatility of the tin price may increase. Although the long-term trend of the tin price remains unchanged, investors are advised to pay attention to risk management and profit protection in the short term [1]. - **Precious Metals**: The judgment of the Supreme Court that the "IEEPA tariff" is illegal and Trump's new tariff policy have intensified market concerns about uncertainty. Coupled with the escalation of the geopolitical tension between the United States and Iran, the demand for hedging has supported the price of precious metals. The macro situation is favorable for platinum, and the balance expectation of palladium may improve, which may further support the palladium price in the short term [1]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: The data of Malaysian palm oil from February 1 to 20 showed a double decline in production and exports. The Malaysian palm oil market rebounded and then faced pressure during the holiday and is expected to fluctuate [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: The US soybean oil has risen under the influence of biodiesel and crude oil prices. The domestic soybean oil may open higher but lacks new driving forces for the time being. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Rapeseed**: The ICE rapeseed rose slightly during the holiday and may be affected by US biodiesel and potential domestic import demand. Attention should be paid to the release of the EPA biodiesel policy and the anti-dumping arbitration announcement of Canadian rapeseed in China [1]. - **Cotton**: The domestic new cotton crop has a strong expectation of a bumper harvest, and the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint cotton. The downstream startup rate remains low, but the inventory of spinning mills is not high, and there is a rigid demand for replenishment. The cotton market is currently in a situation of "having support but no driving force." Future attention should be paid to the tone of the No. 1 Central Document in the first quarter of next year regarding direct subsidy prices and cotton planting areas, the intention of cotton planting areas next year, weather during the planting period, and the peak demand season from March to April [1]. - **Sugar**: The global sugar market is in surplus, and the domestic new sugar supply is increasing. The short-selling consensus is relatively consistent. If the price continues to fall, there will be strong cost support below, but the short-term fundamentals lack continuous driving forces. Attention should be paid to changes in the capital market [1]. - **Corn**: After the holiday, attention should be paid to the selling pressure of on-the-ground grain in the production areas. However, the quality of Northeast grain is relatively dry this year, and the selling pressure is expected to be limited under the support of the rigid replenishment demand of the middle and lower reaches. In addition, attention should be paid to the release of policy grain and the implementation of import restrictions after the holiday. The overall expectation is to maintain range fluctuations [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: The US tariff policy has changed during the holiday, but the external market fluctuated little, which has limited guidance for the domestic soybean meal market. The Brazilian soybean premium has declined, and the soybean meal market is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to Sino-US trade dynamics and Brazilian selling pressure in the near future [1]. - **Coniferous Pulp**: There is no obvious positive news for coniferous pulp during the Spring Festival. The previous positive factors on the supply side have basically faded. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 5200 - 5400 in the short term. Attention should be paid to the port inventory after the holiday [1]. - **Log**: The spot price of logs has risen, the log arrivals in February have decreased, and the external quotation is expected to rise. The futures market has an upward driving force [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Fuel Oil**: OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026, the Middle East geopolitical situation is still uncertain, and the sentiment in the commodity market has cooled down. The short-term supply-demand contradiction is not prominent, and it follows the trend of crude oil [1]. - **Asphalt**: The raw material cost has strong support, the sentiment in the commodity market is changeable, the risk appetite of funds has decreased, the downstream demand has weakened before the holiday, and the basis difference has expanded to the high level of the same period [1]. - **Butadiene**: The cost end of butadiene has strong support, the overseas cracking device capacity has been cleared, which is beneficial to the long-term domestic butadiene export expectation. The profit of private cis-butadiene plants has remained in a loss state recently, and the expectation of maintenance and load reduction has increased. The downstream negative feedback has been gradually realized. The butadiene market is in a state of destocking, and the high inventory of cis-butadiene is still a potential negative factor. Attention should be paid to the inventory reduction of cis-butadiene before the Spring Festival and the trading performance of the butadiene market. The short-term market is expected to fluctuate widely, and the BR still has an upward expectation in the long term [1]. - **PX**: The PX-mixed xylene price difference has narrowed to $150, which is still enough to support PX manufacturers to purchase mixed xylene as raw materials. PX maintains fundamental resilience during the high-level correction, and there are still risks of crude oil prices due to the Iranian geopolitical risk. The downstream PTA industry continues to be strong, and the domestic PTA output in January is expected to reach a new high, and there is no plan to reduce production during the Spring Festival, and there is no new PTA production capacity throughout the year [1]. - **Ethylene**: The production profit rate of naphtha cracking has declined due to the rise in raw material prices. The price difference between ethylene and naphtha has reached $83. Several Korean ethylene producers plan to maintain the operating rate of their cracking devices in February. The ethylene glycol price is waiting at a low level [1]. - **Styrene**: The high inventory of pure benzene has weak import demand, and the price difference between the United States and Asia is $88, which is not enough to open the arbitrage window. The Asian styrene price and economic situation have recovered, mainly driven by supply tightening, unexpected shutdowns in the Middle East, surging export demand, and rising cost ends. The continuous strong export, short-term supply gap caused by domestic maintenance, and speculative buying driven by chemical futures support the firmness of the spot price [1]. - **Methanol**: Methanol is generally affected by the Iranian situation, and the future import is expected to decrease, but the downstream negative feedback is obvious. The leading MTO device has stopped, and some enterprises have reduced production, but the Fude plant restarted on January 25. The Iranian situation has eased, but the risk cannot be completely ruled out. The freight has risen due to the cold air in the inland area, and the inventory pressure of enterprises in the northwest has increased, and they have reduced prices to sell goods [1]. - **PVC**: In 2026, there will be less global production, and the differential electricity price in the northwest region is expected to be implemented, which will force the clearance of PVC production capacity. The future expectation is relatively optimistic, but the current fundamentals are poor, and the export rush has slowed down stage by stage [1]. - **LPG**: The CP price in February has risen, and the purchase in March is still relatively tight. The Middle East geopolitical conflict has cooled down, and the short-term risk premium has declined. The driving logic of the overseas cold wave has gradually slowed down, and the market expectation is weakening. It is expected that the basis will gradually expand. The domestic PDH operating rate has declined, and the profit is expected to recover seasonally. The short-term demand side of LPG is bearish, which suppresses the upward movement of the market. The port inventory has been continuously decreasing, but the domestic civil gas is relatively sufficient, showing a divergence between propane and PG [1]. Shipping - **Container Shipping**: The freight rate peaked and fell before the holiday. Airlines are still cautious about tentative resume flights. Airlines are expected to have a strong willingness to stop the decline and raise prices after the off-season in March [1].