三、机构观点 华联期货：市场方面，巴西国家能源政策委员会将在6月晚些时候决定是否把汽油中的无水乙醇混合比 例从27%上限提高到30%，如果提高会提振国际糖价。2025年前五个月我国糖进口量创下新低，但5月 单月进口却显著增长。随着国内生产库存不断下降，国内较大的产需缺口需要进口糖来弥补，况且国际 原糖在大幅下跌以后，进口利润增加，刺激国内进口动力。与此同时，当前已经进入需求旺季，市场需 求也在逐步好转。操作上建议适当买入做多，郑糖2509参考支撑位5600元/吨。 西南期货：综合来看，国外方面，当前巴西压榨将逐渐提速，但价格基本反映了大部分巴西中南部增产 预期。随着以色列和伊朗冲突扩大，原油大幅上涨，这会提高巴西糖厂制乙醇的比例，会减少部分糖的 供应。国内方面，当前库存低，进口量后期将逐渐增加，供需矛盾不尖锐，目前价格基差偏高，估值偏 低，后期消费旺季逐渐启动，建议分批做多。 巴西航运机构Williams周四发布的数据显示，截至6月25日当周，港口等待装运的食糖数量为270.42万 吨，此前一周为285.39万吨。 巴西政府昨日宣布将汽油中乙醇掺混比例从27%提高至30%，该举措或对制糖比造成影响。 据外媒报 ...

二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 06 月 22 日 白糖：反弹 周小球 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0001891 zhouxiaoqiu@gtht.com 报告导读： （1）本周市场回顾 国际市场方面，美元指数 98.76（前值 98.15），美元兑巴西雷亚尔 5.50（前值 5.56），WTI 原油价 格 74.04 美元/桶（+1.2%），纽约原糖活跃合约价格 16.53 美分/磅（-0.06%）。截至 6 月 10 日，基金多 单增加 632 手，基金空单增加 20718 手，净多单同比减少 20086 手至-38526 手，净多单大幅减少。 UNICA 数据显示，截至 6 月 1 日，25/26 榨季巴西中南部累计产糖 695 万吨，同比减少 92 万吨。 ISMA/NFCSF 数据显示，截至 5 月 15 日，24/25 榨季印度产糖 2574 万吨，同比减少 580 万吨。OCSB 数 据显示，截至 4 月 9 日，24/25 榨季泰国产糖 1005 万吨，同比增加 131 万吨。 国内市场方面，广西集团现货报价 6030 元/吨，环比上周下跌 30 元/吨；郑糖主力报 5720 元/吨， 环比 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The night - session of foreign sugar rebounded after hitting the bottom. The main contract 09 of Zhengzhou sugar should focus on the support around 5800. The adjustment at the current position is basically in place, and short - term long positions can be considered on dips during intraday trading [5][8] Group 3: Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Previous Day's Review - No relevant content provided 2. Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: Conab estimates that Brazil's sugar production in the 25/26 season will increase by 4% year - on - year to 45.9 million tons; USDA predicts a 2% increase to 44.7 million tons. Since January 1, 2025, the tariff on imported syrup and premixed powder has been adjusted from 12% to 20%, approaching the out - of - quota tariff for raw sugar. As of the end of March 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season in China was 10.7479 million tons; the cumulative sugar sales were 5.9958 million tons; the sales rate was 55.79% (49.46% in the same period last year). In March 2025, China imported 70,000 tons of sugar, an increase of 60,000 tons year - on - year, and the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 132,800 tons, a decrease of 24,600 tons year - on - year. The overall situation is neutral [4] - **Basis**: The spot price in Liuzhou is 6210, and the basis is 397 (for the 09 contract), with the spot price at a premium to the futures price, which is bullish [4] - **Inventory**: As of the end of March, the industrial inventory in the 24/25 sugar - crushing season was 4.7521 million tons, which is bullish [4] - **Market Trend**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average, which is bearish [5] - **Main Position**: The position is bullish, the net long position has increased, but the main trend is not clear, which is bullish [5] - **Likely Factors**: Bullish factors include good domestic spot sales, the arrival of the Dragon Boat Festival peak season, the inverted price of imported sugar, reduced imports, lower inventory, and increased syrup tariffs. Bearish factors are the increase in global sugar production and the expected global supply surplus in the new season [6] 3. Today's Focus - No relevant content provided 4. Fundamental Data - **USDA Global Sugar Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: Data from 2017 - 2024 shows changes in initial inventory, total sugar production, total supply, domestic consumption, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio [36] - **Rural Ministry's Sugar Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: Data from 2022/23 - 2024/25 (April forecast) includes sugar - crop planting area, harvest area, yield per unit area, sugar production, imports, consumption, balance changes, international and domestic sugar prices [38] - **Brick's Domestic Sugar Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: Data from 2017 - 2024 shows initial inventory, production, imports, total domestic supply, domestic consumption, total domestic consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio [41] 5. Position Data - No relevant content provided