白糖期货投资
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大越期货白糖周报-20260309
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2026-03-09 03:10
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating 2. Core View of the Report - This week, sugar prices fluctuated and rose, with the main contract 05 reaching the 5400 level. Technically, it shows a bullish trend, having broken away from the bottom in the short - term and the trend has reversed. The downstream market's post - holiday restocking and rising oil prices support sugar prices. In the short - term, a volatile and bullish outlook is maintained [5]. - There are both bullish and bearish factors. Bullish factors include a possible decline in Brazilian sugar production in the 26/27 season, increased syrup tariffs, the use of sucrose in the new US cola formula, and rising oil prices. Bearish factors are the increase in global sugar production and the opening of the import profit window due to the drop in foreign sugar prices [6]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Previous Day Review (Weekly Review) - This week, sugar prices fluctuated and rose. The main 05 contract reached 5400. Technically, short - term moving averages crossed long - term moving averages upwards, and the K - line began to diverge upwards, indicating a bullish pattern [5]. - Different institutions have different forecasts for the global sugar market supply and demand. Datagro predicts a 268 - million - ton sugar deficit in the 26/27 season. ISO expects a 122 - million - ton surplus in the 25/26 season, down from the previous estimate of 163 million tons. Covrig Analytics expects the global sugar surplus in the 26/27 season to shrink to 140 million tons, lower than the 470 - million - ton surplus in the 25/26 season. Green Pool expects a 15.6 - million - ton surplus in the 26/27 season, lower than the 274 - million - ton surplus in the 25/26 season [5]. - As of the end of January 2026, in the 25/26 season, the cumulative sugar production in China was 689 million tons, the cumulative sugar sales were 290 million tons, and the sales rate was 42.09%. In December 2025, China imported 58 million tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 19 million tons; the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 6.97 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.08 million tons [5]. 3.2 Daily Prompt - Bullish factors: Possible decline in Brazilian sugar production in the 26/27 season, increased syrup tariffs, the use of sucrose in the new US cola formula, and rising oil prices. Bearish factors: Increase in global sugar production, a new - season global supply surplus, the drop in foreign sugar prices to around 14.5 cents per pound, and the opening of the import profit window [6]. 3.3 Today's Focus - No information provided 3.4 Fundamental Data - Different institutions' forecasts for the 25/26 season's global sugar market supply and demand: ISO expects a 122 - million - ton surplus (previously 163 million tons), StoneX expects a 290 - million - ton surplus, Czarnikow raises the expected surplus to 740 million tons, Green Pool expects a 15.6 - million - ton surplus in the 26/27 season (lower than 274 million tons in the 25/26 season), and USDA expects a 139.7 - million - ton surplus in the 25/26 season [8]. - In China, the domestic sugar supply - demand balance shows a gap, but the long - term gap is decreasing. The average spot sales price of domestic sugar is around 5300. Since January 2025, the import tariff on syrup has increased, approaching the out - of - quota import tariff on raw sugar. From January 1, 2025, the import tariff on syrup and premixed powder has been adjusted from 12% to 20%, slightly lower than the out - of - quota import tariff on raw sugar [8]. - Sugar production, consumption, import and export data in different seasons in China, as well as sugar - cane and sugar - beet planting area, yield, and price data [32]. - The cost and profit data of imported raw sugar after processing and paying 50% tariff [36]. 3.5 Position Data - No information provided
大越期货白糖周报-20260302
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2026-03-02 02:58
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the Spring Festival, domestic white sugar prices oscillated upward, breaking through the previous oscillation range and showing a short - term upward trend from the bottom. Technically, there is a trend of a right - side market. Downstream enterprises started restocking after the festival, market demand recovered, and some market funds flowed from previously over - hyped high - priced commodities to low - priced ones. So, the short - term view on white sugar is oscillating upward [5][8]. - For the 26/27 sugar season, different institutions predict a reduction in the global sugar surplus compared to the 25/26 season. For example, Covrig Analytics predicts the surplus will shrink to 140,000 tons, and Green Pool predicts 156,000 tons [5]. - There are both positive and negative factors for the white sugar market. Positive factors include a possible decline in Brazilian sugar production in the 26/27 season, an increase in syrup tariffs, and the change of the US cola formula to use sucrose. Negative factors are the increase in global sugar production, a new - season global supply surplus, the opening of the import profit window due to the fall of foreign sugar prices to around 14.5 cents per pound, and increased import impact [6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Previous Day Review - Not provided in the given content 3.2 Daily Tips - Not provided in the given content 3.3 Today's Focus - Not provided in the given content 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Global Sugar Supply and Demand Forecast**: Different institutions predict a supply surplus in the 25/26 and 26/27 sugar seasons. For example, ISO predicts a 163,000 - ton surplus in the 25/26 season, and Green Pool predicts a 156,000 - ton surplus in the 26/27 season [5][8][31]. - **Domestic Sugar Production and Sales**: As of the end of January 2026, in the 25/26 sugar season, the cumulative sugar production in China was 6.89 million tons, the cumulative sugar sales were 2.9 million tons, and the sales rate was 42.09%. In December 2025, China imported 580,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 190,000 tons, and imported 69,700 tons of syrup and premixed powder, a year - on - year decrease of 120,800 tons [5][8]. - **Sugar - related Prices**: The international sugar price is in the range of 14.0 - 18.5 cents per pound, and the domestic sugar price is in the range of 5,500 - 6,000 yuan per ton. The cost of imported Brazilian raw sugar after processing and paying 50% tariff and the corresponding profit are also provided in the report [33][37]. 3.5 Position Data - Not provided in the given content
银河期货白糖日报-20251218
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-12-18 13:05
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - International sugar prices are showing signs of bottoming out, with a short - term expectation of a slightly bullish and oscillating trend. Domestic sugar prices are trending downward and are likely to remain weak in the short term, but there is some support at the current price level [9][10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Data Analysis - **Futures Market**: On December 18, 2025, SR09 closed at 5,120, down 34 (-0.66%); SR01 closed at 5,192, down 23 (-0.44%); SR05 closed at 5,102, down 37 (-0.72%). The trading volume and open interest of each contract also changed to varying degrees [3]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices of sugar in different regions showed a general downward trend. For example, the price in Liuzhou was 5390, down 20; in Kunming, it was 5220, down 25 [3]. - **Basis**: The basis in different regions varied, with Liuzhou at 198, Kunming at 28, etc. [3]. - **Inter - monthly Spread**: The spread between SR05 - SR01 was - 90, down 14; SR09 - SR05 was 18, up 3; SR09 - SR01 was - 72, down 11 [3]. - **Import Profit**: The quota - free and in - quota import prices from Brazil and Thailand and their spreads with domestic prices were provided. For example, the quota - free price of Brazilian sugar was 5127, with a spread of 263 compared to Liuzhou [3]. 3.2 Market Judgment - **Important Information**: In November 2025, China imported 440,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year decrease of 90,000 tons. From January to November 2025, the cumulative import was 4.34 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 380,000 tons. As of the end of November in the 25/26 sugar - making season, China imported 1.19 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 120,000 tons. As of December 17, the number of ships waiting to load sugar in Brazilian ports increased, and the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped also increased [5]. - **Logical Analysis**: Internationally, the Brazilian sugar - making season is approaching the end, the supply pressure is easing, and international sugar prices are showing signs of bottoming out. Domestically, although new sugar production is increasing and sales pressure is rising, factors such as tightened imports of syrups and premixes, high production costs, and the current price approaching the out - of - quota cost line provide some support to the price [9]. - **Trading Strategies**: - **Single - side**: International sugar prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short term. Domestic sugar prices are likely to remain weak, but the downward space is limited [10]. - **Arbitrage**: Go long on the January contract and short on the May contract [11]. - **Options**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [11]. 3.3 Related Attachments The report includes multiple charts showing data such as monthly inventories, monthly production, spot prices, basis, and spreads in different regions and contracts of sugar, which can be used for further analysis of the sugar market [12][16][17][21][26][27].
银河期货白糖日报-20251125
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-11-25 11:36
Report Overview - Report Title: Sugar Daily Report - Report Date: November 25, 2025 - Researcher: Liu Qiannan 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - International sugar prices are expected to bottom out and fluctuate slightly higher in the short term due to a significant decline in Brazil's sugar - making ratio. In the domestic market, although there is pressure from higher - than - expected imported sugar volume and sugar mill openings, considering the high production cost of domestic white sugar and the current low price, the downward space is limited. It is recommended to build long positions at low levels in the short term, conduct a long - January and short - May arbitrage, and sell put options at low levels [12][13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Data Analysis - **Futures Market**: SR09 closed at 5,336 with no change; SR01 closed at 5,387, up 17 (0.32%); SR05 closed at 5,325, up 6 (0.11%). The trading volume of SR01 decreased by 40,608 to 135,377, and the open interest decreased by 11,410 to 406,329. The trading volume of SR05 decreased by 17,810 to 28,811, and the open interest increased by 267 to 179,388. The trading volume of SR09 increased by 755 to 3,672, and the open interest increased by 469 to 18,875 [6]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices in Liuzhou, Kunming, Wuhan, and other regions remained unchanged. The basis in Liuzhou was 228, in Kunming was 113, and in Wuhan was 573 [6]. - **Month - to - Month Spread**: The SR05 - SR01 spread was - 62, down 11; the SR09 - SR05 spread was 11, down 6; the SR09 - SR01 spread was - 51, down 17 [6]. - **Import Profit**: The quota - free price for Brazilian imports was 5,156, with a spread of 459 compared to Liuzhou and 644 compared to Rizhao. The quota - free price for Thai imports was 5,220, with a spread of 395 compared to Liuzhou and 580 compared to Rizhao [6]. 3.2 Market Analysis - **Important Information**: In the third week of November, Brazil exported 256.37 million tons of sugar and molasses, a year - on - year increase of 73.03 million tons (39.83%). As of November 23, 2025/26, 154 sugar mills in India's Maharashtra state had started crushing, 34 more than the same period last season. As of November 25, 19 sugar mills in Guangxi had started crushing, 26 fewer than the same period last year, with a daily crushing capacity of about 142,000 tons, a decrease of 264,500 tons [8][9]. - **Logical Analysis**: Globally, the production increase in major sugar - producing areas is being realized. Datagro has significantly lowered the global sugar surplus forecast. Brazil's sugar production may be lower than expected as the sugar - making ratio has decreased, and the supply pressure will gradually ease. In the domestic market, although the supply and sales pressure will gradually increase due to the start of sugar mills, factors such as tightened imports of syrups and premixes and high production costs provide some support for the futures price [12]. - **Trading Strategy**: - **Single Side**: Consider building long positions at low levels in the short term. - **Arbitrage**: Go long on the January contract and short on the May contract. - **Options**: Sell put options at low levels [13][14]. 3.3 Relevant Attachments - The report includes multiple graphs showing data such as Guangxi and Yunnan's monthly inventory, sales - to - production ratio, Liuzhou's white sugar spot price, and various price spreads [15][19][23].
白糖周报(10.20-10.24)-20251027
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-10-27 05:38
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, sugar prices mainly fluctuated slightly in the range of 5400 - 5500. Domestic sugarcane crushing has begun. In the main producing area of Guangxi, the sugarcane yield was affected by the typhoon in the early stage and decreased [4]. - Czarnikow raised the global sugar surplus forecast for the 25/26 season to 7.4 million tons, 1.2 million tons higher than the August estimate. StoneX predicted a global sugar market surplus of 2.77 million tons in the 25/26 season. ISO estimated a global sugar supply deficit of 231,000 tons in the 25/26 season, a significant reduction compared to the previous forecast [4]. - As of the end of August 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season in China was 11.1621 million tons, and the cumulative sugar sales were 10 million tons, with a sales rate of 89.6%. In September 2025, China imported 550,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 150,000 tons; the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 151,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 135,100 tons [4]. - Recently, the external sugar price has been weak, while the domestic Zhengzhou sugar price has been relatively strong, mainly because the typhoon affected the main sugar - producing area in Guangxi, causing some sugarcane fields to be affected and the yield to decrease. At the same time, the Zhengzhou sugar contract shows a pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness. Attention should be paid to the investment opportunity of the price difference between contracts 1 and 5. The short - term range of the main 01 contract of Zhengzhou sugar is 5400 - 5450 [4]. - Bullish factors include good domestic consumption, reduced inventory, and increased syrup tariffs. The change of the formula of American Coke to use sucrose is also a bullish factor. Bearish factors include an increase in global sugar production, a surplus in the new season's global supply, the external sugar price falling below 15 cents per pound, the opening of the import profit window, and increased import impact [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day Review - Not provided in the report 2. Daily Prompt - Not provided in the report 3. Today's Focus - Not provided in the report 4. Fundamental Data - **Global Supply and Demand Forecast**: Different institutions have different forecasts for the global sugar supply and demand in the 25/26 season. ISO estimated a supply deficit of 200,000 tons (basically balanced), StoneX predicted a supply surplus of 2.77 million tons, Czarnikow raised the surplus forecast to 7.4 million tons, Datagro estimated a surplus of 1.53 million tons, Covrig Analytics predicted a surplus of 4.2 million tons, Alvean/Louis Dreyfus estimated a surplus of 400,000 tons, and Green Pool predicted a surplus of 1.15 million tons [34]. - **China's Sugar Supply and Demand Balance Sheet**: In the 2024/25 season, the sugar - producing area was 1.262 million hectares, with a sugar production of 9.96 million tons, imports of 4.75 million tons, and consumption of 15.5 million tons. For the 2025/26 season, the sugar - producing area is expected to be 1.44 million hectares, with a sugar production of 11.2 million tons, imports of 5 million tons, and consumption of 15.9 million tons. The international sugar price is expected to be in the range of 16.5 - 21.5 cents per pound, and the domestic sugar price is expected to be in the range of 5800 - 6500 yuan per ton [36]. - **Imported Raw Sugar Processing Cost**: In September 2025, the average price of ICE raw sugar was about 15.79 cents per pound, and the cost of imported raw sugar after processing and paying 50% tariff was 5454 yuan per ton [41]. 5. Position Data - Not provided in the report
瑞达期货白糖产业日报-20251013
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-10-13 09:17
1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No specific investment rating for the sugar industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Brazilian sugar exports are facing significant pressure as exports decreased month - on - month, affected by factors such as falling international sugar prices and weak demand. From the 2025/26 sugar season (April - next March) to September 2025, Brazil's cumulative sugar exports were 17.75 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.73%. - In the domestic market, the typhoon "Maidom" brought heavy rainfall, causing lodging of some sugarcane in Guangxi, which may affect production. However, sugar mills in the northern sugar beet - producing areas have gradually started production, and the forecasted arrival volume of raw sugar outside the tariff quota in September was 460,000 tons, so supply will gradually increase. - The Zhengzhou sugar 2601 contract should be treated as short - term bearish [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main sugar futures contract was 5470 yuan/ton, and the main contract's open interest was 390,023 lots, an increase of 4187 lots. - The number of sugar warehouse receipts was 8681, and the net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 75,264 lots, an increase of 209 lots. - The effective warehouse receipt forecast for sugar was 0, and the estimated import - processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota was 4426 yuan/ton, a decrease of 37 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The estimated import - processing price of Thai sugar within the quota was 4446 yuan/ton, a decrease of 38 yuan/ton. - The estimated import price of Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) was 5621 yuan/ton, and that of Thai sugar was 5647 yuan/ton. - The spot price of white sugar in Kunming was 5810 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton; in Nanning, it was 5800 yuan/ton; in Liuzhou, it was 5850 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop planting area was 1480 thousand hectares, and the planting area of sugarcane in Guangxi was 835.09 thousand hectares, a decrease of 12.86 thousand hectares. - The cumulative national sugar production was 1116.21 million tons, and the cumulative national sugar sales volume was 999.98 million tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The national sugar sales ratio was 89.98%, and the monthly import volume of sugar was 830,000 tons, an increase of 90,000 tons. - The difference between the imported Brazilian sugar price and the current Liuzhou sugar price within the quota was 1237 yuan/ton, and the difference outside the quota (50% tariff) was 36 yuan/ton, an increase of 43 yuan/ton. - The difference between the imported Thai sugar price and the current Liuzhou sugar price within the quota was 62 yuan/ton, an increase of 42 yuan/ton [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly production of refined sugar was 45.41 million tons, and the monthly production of soft drinks was 17.758 million tons, a decrease of 20.8 million tons [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar was 8.18%, an increase of 0.28%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 8.18%, an increase of 0.29%. - The 20 - day historical volatility of sugar was 6.72%, and the 60 - day historical volatility was 6.63%, an increase of 0.02% [2]. 3.7 Industry News - According to data from Brazilian shipping agency Williams, as of the week of October 8, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports was 83, up from 78 the previous week. The quantity of sugar waiting to be loaded at ports was 3.6081 million tons, up from 3.2106 million tons the previous week. - Brazilian foreign trade secretariat export data showed that Brazil exported 3.2458 million tons of sugar in September, a month - on - month decrease of 0.4932 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 16.3% [2].
白糖早报-20251009
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-10-09 01:28
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - Czarnikow raised the global sugar surplus forecast for the 25/26 season to 7.4 million tons, 1.2 million tons higher than the August estimate. StoneX expected a 2.77 million - ton surplus, while ISO predicted a supply gap of 231,000 tons, significantly reduced from the previous forecast [5]. - After the National Day holiday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures market is expected to continue its weak rebound. Two recent typhoons affected the southern Guangxi sugar - cane producing areas, and the subsequent sugar - cane yield reduction needs attention [5][8]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the sugar market. Positives include good domestic consumption, reduced inventory, increased syrup tariffs, the change of US cola formula to use sucrose, and potential yield reduction in Guangxi due to typhoons. Negatives are the increase in global sugar production, supply surplus in the new season, low international sugar prices around 16 cents per pound with an open import profit window and increased import impact [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review - No relevant information provided 3.2 Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: Multiple institutions have different forecasts for the global sugar supply and demand in the 25/26 season. As of the end of August 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season was 11.1621 million tons, cumulative sugar sales were 10 million tons, and the sales rate was 89.6%. In August 2025, China imported 830,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 60,000 tons; in July, the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 159,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 68,500 tons [5]. - **Basis**: The Liuzhou spot price was 5,890 yuan/ton, and the basis for the 01 contract was 397 yuan/ton, with the spot price at a premium to the futures [5]. - **Inventory**: As of the end of August in the 24/25 season, the industrial inventory was 1.16 million tons [5]. - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average was downward, and the K - line was below the 20 - day moving average [5]. - **Main Position**: The net short position decreased, but the main trend was unclear [5]. - **Expectation**: After the National Day holiday, the Zhengzhou sugar market is expected to continue its weak rebound. Two typhoons affected southern Guangxi, and the subsequent yield reduction needs attention [5][8]. 3.3 Today's Focus - No relevant information provided 3.4 Fundamental Data - Different institutions have different forecasts for the 25/26 global sugar supply and demand. ISO predicted a supply gap of 231,000 tons; StoneX expected a 2.77 million - ton surplus; Czarnikow forecast a 7.4 million - ton surplus; Datagro estimated a 1.53 million - ton surplus [5][8][34]. - From 2024/25 to 2025/26, the sugar - crop sowing area, harvest area, yield per unit, sugar production, import, and consumption are presented in the table, with the international sugar price ranging from 16.5 - 21.5 cents per pound and the domestic sugar price from 5,800 - 6,500 yuan/ton in 2025/26 [35]. - The import cost of raw sugar processed and taxed (50% tariff) from different months and sources is shown in the table, such as the cost from Brazil in September 2025 being 5,454 yuan/ton [37]. 3.5 Position Data - No relevant information provided
后期消费旺季逐渐启动 白糖期货可适当买入做多
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-06-27 07:14
Market Overview - The main white sugar futures contract experienced a slight increase, closing at 5790 CNY/ton, up by 63 CNY or 1.1%, with a reduction of 15891 contracts [1] Fundamental Summary - According to Williams, a Brazilian shipping agency, the amount of sugar waiting for shipment at ports was 2.7042 million tons for the week ending June 25, down from 2.8539 million tons the previous week [2] - The Brazilian government announced an increase in the ethanol blending ratio in gasoline from 27% to 30%, which may impact the sugar production ratio [3] - Sao Martinho, the world's largest sugar processing company, expects its sugarcane crushing volume for the 2025/26 season to be 22.6 million tons [4] Institutional Perspectives - Hualian Futures noted that the Brazilian National Energy Policy Council will decide later in June whether to raise the ethanol blending ratio, which could boost international sugar prices. China's sugar imports hit a new low in the first five months of 2025, but there was a significant increase in May. With domestic production inventories declining, there is a need for imported sugar to fill the gap, especially as international raw sugar prices have dropped, increasing import profitability. The demand season is gradually improving, and a buy recommendation is suggested with a support level of 5600 CNY/ton for Zheng sugar [5] - Southwest Futures indicated that while Brazilian crushing is expected to accelerate, prices have largely reflected the anticipated increase in production. The escalation of conflict between Israel and Iran has led to a significant rise in crude oil prices, which may increase the ethanol production ratio at Brazilian sugar mills, reducing sugar supply. With low domestic inventories and an expected increase in imports, the supply-demand imbalance is not acute, and the current price basis is high with low valuation. A gradual buying strategy is recommended as the consumption peak season approaches [5]
白糖:反弹
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-06-22 09:29
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "Rebound" rating for the domestic sugar market and a "Low-level consolidation" rating for the international sugar market [1][3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The international sugar market is in a pattern of strong reality and weak expectations. The 24/25 sugar season has a slightly reduced production in Brazil and a significant decline in India's production, which is bullish. The 25/26 sugar season is expected to have a restorative increase in production in both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, which is bearish. The New York raw sugar has ended its downward trend and is mainly in low-level consolidation. The domestic sugar market is expected to rebound, with continuous production increase and cost reduction in the 24/25 sugar season, and the domestic price is moving closer to the out-of-quota import cost [3][34] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Data - The US dollar index is 98.76 (previous value 98.15), and the US dollar to Brazilian real exchange rate is 5.50 (previous value 5.56). The WTI crude oil price is $74.04 per barrel (+1.2%) [6] 3.2 Industry Data 3.2.1 Market Price and Trading Data - The price of the active contract of New York raw sugar is 16.53 cents per pound (-0.06%). The spot price of Guangxi Group is 6,030 yuan per ton, down 30 yuan per ton from last week. The main contract of Zhengzhou sugar is reported at 5,720 yuan per ton, up 56 yuan per ton from last week, and the basis of the main contract has dropped significantly. As of the end of May, the domestic sugar production in the 24/25 sugar season was 11.16 million tons, an increase of 1.2 million tons year-on-year. CAOC expects the domestic sugar production in the 24/25 sugar season to be 11.15 million tons, consumption to be 15.8 million tons, and imports to be 5 million tons. For the 25/26 sugar season, CAOC expects production to be 11.2 million tons, consumption to be 15.9 million tons, and imports to be 5 million tons. As of the end of last week, the warehouse receipts of Zhengzhou white sugar were 27,669. As of June 10, the long positions of funds increased by 632 lots, the short positions increased by 20,718 lots, and the net long positions decreased by 20,086 lots year-on-year to -38,526 lots [16] 3.2.2 Industry Supply and Demand Data - The International Sugar Organization (ISO) expects a supply shortage of 5.47 million tons in the 24/25 sugar season (previous value was a shortage of 4.88 million tons). As of June 1, in the 25/26 sugar season, the cumulative sugar production in the central-southern region of Brazil was 6.95 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 920,000 tons. As of May 15, the sugar production in India in the 24/25 sugar season was 25.74 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 5.8 million tons. As of April 9, the sugar production in Thailand in the 24/25 sugar season was 10.05 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.31 million tons. CAOC expects the domestic sugar production in the 24/25 sugar season to be 11.15 million tons, consumption to be 15.8 million tons, and imports to be 5 million tons; for the 25/26 sugar season, production is expected to be 11.2 million tons, consumption to be 15.9 million tons, and imports to be 5 million tons. As of the end of May, the cumulative sugar imports in the 24/25 sugar season in China were 2.09 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.04 million tons [23][24] 3.3 Operation Suggestions - The international market is in low-level consolidation. Pay attention to Brazil's production and export rhythm and India's relevant industrial policies. The domestic market is expected to rebound, with the domestic price moving closer to the out-of-quota import cost, and the trading rhythm revolves around the import rhythm [3][34]