交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 白糖周报（2.24-2.27） 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 本周回顾： 春节假期外糖震荡走高，国内白糖开盘震荡上行，突破前期震荡区间，短期走出底部趋势。 Covrig Analytics:26/27年度全球糖过剩预计缩减至140万吨，低于25/26年度的470万吨。Green Pool：预计26/27年度全球糖供应量过剩15.6万吨，低于25/26年度的274万吨。2026年1月底， 25/26年度本期制糖全国累计产糖689万吨；全国累计销糖290万吨；销糖率42.09%。2025年12月中 国进口食糖58万吨，同比增加19万吨；进口糖浆及预混粉等三项合计6.97万吨，同比减少1 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - International sugar prices are showing signs of bottoming out, with a short - term expectation of a slightly bullish and oscillating trend. Domestic sugar prices are trending downward and are likely to remain weak in the short term, but there is some support at the current price level [9][10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Data Analysis - **Futures Market**: On December 18, 2025, SR09 closed at 5,120, down 34 (-0.66%); SR01 closed at 5,192, down 23 (-0.44%); SR05 closed at 5,102, down 37 (-0.72%). The trading volume and open interest of each contract also changed to varying degrees [3]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices of sugar in different regions showed a general downward trend. For example, the price in Liuzhou was 5390, down 20; in Kunming, it was 5220, down 25 [3]. - **Basis**: The basis in different regions varied, with Liuzhou at 198, Kunming at 28, etc. [3]. - **Inter - monthly Spread**: The spread between SR05 - SR01 was - 90, down 14; SR09 - SR05 was 18, up 3; SR09 - SR01 was - 72, down 11 [3]. - **Import Profit**: The quota - free and in - quota import prices from Brazil and Thailand and their spreads with domestic prices were provided. For example, the quota - free price of Brazilian sugar was 5127, with a spread of 263 compared to Liuzhou [3]. 3.2 Market Judgment - **Important Information**: In November 2025, China imported 440,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year decrease of 90,000 tons. From January to November 2025, the cumulative import was 4.34 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 380,000 tons. As of the end of November in the 25/26 sugar - making season, China imported 1.19 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 120,000 tons. As of December 17, the number of ships waiting to load sugar in Brazilian ports increased, and the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped also increased [5]. - **Logical Analysis**: Internationally, the Brazilian sugar - making season is approaching the end, the supply pressure is easing, and international sugar prices are showing signs of bottoming out. Domestically, although new sugar production is increasing and sales pressure is rising, factors such as tightened imports of syrups and premixes, high production costs, and the current price approaching the out - of - quota cost line provide some support to the price [9]. - **Trading Strategies**: - **Single - side**: International sugar prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short term. Domestic sugar prices are likely to remain weak, but the downward space is limited [10]. - **Arbitrage**: Go long on the January contract and short on the May contract [11]. - **Options**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [11]. 3.3 Related Attachments The report includes multiple charts showing data such as monthly inventories, monthly production, spot prices, basis, and spreads in different regions and contracts of sugar, which can be used for further analysis of the sugar market [12][16][17][21][26][27].

Report Overview - Report Title: Sugar Daily Report - Report Date: November 25, 2025 - Researcher: Liu Qiannan 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - International sugar prices are expected to bottom out and fluctuate slightly higher in the short term due to a significant decline in Brazil's sugar - making ratio. In the domestic market, although there is pressure from higher - than - expected imported sugar volume and sugar mill openings, considering the high production cost of domestic white sugar and the current low price, the downward space is limited. It is recommended to build long positions at low levels in the short term, conduct a long - January and short - May arbitrage, and sell put options at low levels [12][13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Data Analysis - **Futures Market**: SR09 closed at 5,336 with no change; SR01 closed at 5,387, up 17 (0.32%); SR05 closed at 5,325, up 6 (0.11%). The trading volume of SR01 decreased by 40,608 to 135,377, and the open interest decreased by 11,410 to 406,329. The trading volume of SR05 decreased by 17,810 to 28,811, and the open interest increased by 267 to 179,388. The trading volume of SR09 increased by 755 to 3,672, and the open interest increased by 469 to 18,875 [6]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices in Liuzhou, Kunming, Wuhan, and other regions remained unchanged. The basis in Liuzhou was 228, in Kunming was 113, and in Wuhan was 573 [6]. - **Month - to - Month Spread**: The SR05 - SR01 spread was - 62, down 11; the SR09 - SR05 spread was 11, down 6; the SR09 - SR01 spread was - 51, down 17 [6]. - **Import Profit**: The quota - free price for Brazilian imports was 5,156, with a spread of 459 compared to Liuzhou and 644 compared to Rizhao. The quota - free price for Thai imports was 5,220, with a spread of 395 compared to Liuzhou and 580 compared to Rizhao [6]. 3.2 Market Analysis - **Important Information**: In the third week of November, Brazil exported 256.37 million tons of sugar and molasses, a year - on - year increase of 73.03 million tons (39.83%). As of November 23, 2025/26, 154 sugar mills in India's Maharashtra state had started crushing, 34 more than the same period last season. As of November 25, 19 sugar mills in Guangxi had started crushing, 26 fewer than the same period last year, with a daily crushing capacity of about 142,000 tons, a decrease of 264,500 tons [8][9]. - **Logical Analysis**: Globally, the production increase in major sugar - producing areas is being realized. Datagro has significantly lowered the global sugar surplus forecast. Brazil's sugar production may be lower than expected as the sugar - making ratio has decreased, and the supply pressure will gradually ease. In the domestic market, although the supply and sales pressure will gradually increase due to the start of sugar mills, factors such as tightened imports of syrups and premixes and high production costs provide some support for the futures price [12]. - **Trading Strategy**: - **Single Side**: Consider building long positions at low levels in the short term. - **Arbitrage**: Go long on the January contract and short on the May contract. - **Options**: Sell put options at low levels [13][14]. 3.3 Relevant Attachments - The report includes multiple graphs showing data such as Guangxi and Yunnan's monthly inventory, sales - to - production ratio, Liuzhou's white sugar spot price, and various price spreads [15][19][23].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, sugar prices mainly fluctuated slightly in the range of 5400 - 5500. Domestic sugarcane crushing has begun. In the main producing area of Guangxi, the sugarcane yield was affected by the typhoon in the early stage and decreased [4]. - Czarnikow raised the global sugar surplus forecast for the 25/26 season to 7.4 million tons, 1.2 million tons higher than the August estimate. StoneX predicted a global sugar market surplus of 2.77 million tons in the 25/26 season. ISO estimated a global sugar supply deficit of 231,000 tons in the 25/26 season, a significant reduction compared to the previous forecast [4]. - As of the end of August 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season in China was 11.1621 million tons, and the cumulative sugar sales were 10 million tons, with a sales rate of 89.6%. In September 2025, China imported 550,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 150,000 tons; the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 151,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 135,100 tons [4]. - Recently, the external sugar price has been weak, while the domestic Zhengzhou sugar price has been relatively strong, mainly because the typhoon affected the main sugar - producing area in Guangxi, causing some sugarcane fields to be affected and the yield to decrease. At the same time, the Zhengzhou sugar contract shows a pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness. Attention should be paid to the investment opportunity of the price difference between contracts 1 and 5. The short - term range of the main 01 contract of Zhengzhou sugar is 5400 - 5450 [4]. - Bullish factors include good domestic consumption, reduced inventory, and increased syrup tariffs. The change of the formula of American Coke to use sucrose is also a bullish factor. Bearish factors include an increase in global sugar production, a surplus in the new season's global supply, the external sugar price falling below 15 cents per pound, the opening of the import profit window, and increased import impact [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day Review - Not provided in the report 2. Daily Prompt - Not provided in the report 3. Today's Focus - Not provided in the report 4. Fundamental Data - **Global Supply and Demand Forecast**: Different institutions have different forecasts for the global sugar supply and demand in the 25/26 season. ISO estimated a supply deficit of 200,000 tons (basically balanced), StoneX predicted a supply surplus of 2.77 million tons, Czarnikow raised the surplus forecast to 7.4 million tons, Datagro estimated a surplus of 1.53 million tons, Covrig Analytics predicted a surplus of 4.2 million tons, Alvean/Louis Dreyfus estimated a surplus of 400,000 tons, and Green Pool predicted a surplus of 1.15 million tons [34]. - **China's Sugar Supply and Demand Balance Sheet**: In the 2024/25 season, the sugar - producing area was 1.262 million hectares, with a sugar production of 9.96 million tons, imports of 4.75 million tons, and consumption of 15.5 million tons. For the 2025/26 season, the sugar - producing area is expected to be 1.44 million hectares, with a sugar production of 11.2 million tons, imports of 5 million tons, and consumption of 15.9 million tons. The international sugar price is expected to be in the range of 16.5 - 21.5 cents per pound, and the domestic sugar price is expected to be in the range of 5800 - 6500 yuan per ton [36]. - **Imported Raw Sugar Processing Cost**: In September 2025, the average price of ICE raw sugar was about 15.79 cents per pound, and the cost of imported raw sugar after processing and paying 50% tariff was 5454 yuan per ton [41]. 5. Position Data - Not provided in the report

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No specific investment rating for the sugar industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Brazilian sugar exports are facing significant pressure as exports decreased month - on - month, affected by factors such as falling international sugar prices and weak demand. From the 2025/26 sugar season (April - next March) to September 2025, Brazil's cumulative sugar exports were 17.75 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.73%. - In the domestic market, the typhoon "Maidom" brought heavy rainfall, causing lodging of some sugarcane in Guangxi, which may affect production. However, sugar mills in the northern sugar beet - producing areas have gradually started production, and the forecasted arrival volume of raw sugar outside the tariff quota in September was 460,000 tons, so supply will gradually increase. - The Zhengzhou sugar 2601 contract should be treated as short - term bearish [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main sugar futures contract was 5470 yuan/ton, and the main contract's open interest was 390,023 lots, an increase of 4187 lots. - The number of sugar warehouse receipts was 8681, and the net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 75,264 lots, an increase of 209 lots. - The effective warehouse receipt forecast for sugar was 0, and the estimated import - processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota was 4426 yuan/ton, a decrease of 37 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The estimated import - processing price of Thai sugar within the quota was 4446 yuan/ton, a decrease of 38 yuan/ton. - The estimated import price of Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) was 5621 yuan/ton, and that of Thai sugar was 5647 yuan/ton. - The spot price of white sugar in Kunming was 5810 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton; in Nanning, it was 5800 yuan/ton; in Liuzhou, it was 5850 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop planting area was 1480 thousand hectares, and the planting area of sugarcane in Guangxi was 835.09 thousand hectares, a decrease of 12.86 thousand hectares. - The cumulative national sugar production was 1116.21 million tons, and the cumulative national sugar sales volume was 999.98 million tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The national sugar sales ratio was 89.98%, and the monthly import volume of sugar was 830,000 tons, an increase of 90,000 tons. - The difference between the imported Brazilian sugar price and the current Liuzhou sugar price within the quota was 1237 yuan/ton, and the difference outside the quota (50% tariff) was 36 yuan/ton, an increase of 43 yuan/ton. - The difference between the imported Thai sugar price and the current Liuzhou sugar price within the quota was 62 yuan/ton, an increase of 42 yuan/ton [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly production of refined sugar was 45.41 million tons, and the monthly production of soft drinks was 17.758 million tons, a decrease of 20.8 million tons [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar was 8.18%, an increase of 0.28%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 8.18%, an increase of 0.29%. - The 20 - day historical volatility of sugar was 6.72%, and the 60 - day historical volatility was 6.63%, an increase of 0.02% [2]. 3.7 Industry News - According to data from Brazilian shipping agency Williams, as of the week of October 8, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports was 83, up from 78 the previous week. The quantity of sugar waiting to be loaded at ports was 3.6081 million tons, up from 3.2106 million tons the previous week. - Brazilian foreign trade secretariat export data showed that Brazil exported 3.2458 million tons of sugar in September, a month - on - month decrease of 0.4932 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 16.3% [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - Czarnikow raised the global sugar surplus forecast for the 25/26 season to 7.4 million tons, 1.2 million tons higher than the August estimate. StoneX expected a 2.77 million - ton surplus, while ISO predicted a supply gap of 231,000 tons, significantly reduced from the previous forecast [5]. - After the National Day holiday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures market is expected to continue its weak rebound. Two recent typhoons affected the southern Guangxi sugar - cane producing areas, and the subsequent sugar - cane yield reduction needs attention [5][8]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the sugar market. Positives include good domestic consumption, reduced inventory, increased syrup tariffs, the change of US cola formula to use sucrose, and potential yield reduction in Guangxi due to typhoons. Negatives are the increase in global sugar production, supply surplus in the new season, low international sugar prices around 16 cents per pound with an open import profit window and increased import impact [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review - No relevant information provided 3.2 Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: Multiple institutions have different forecasts for the global sugar supply and demand in the 25/26 season. As of the end of August 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season was 11.1621 million tons, cumulative sugar sales were 10 million tons, and the sales rate was 89.6%. In August 2025, China imported 830,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 60,000 tons; in July, the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 159,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 68,500 tons [5]. - **Basis**: The Liuzhou spot price was 5,890 yuan/ton, and the basis for the 01 contract was 397 yuan/ton, with the spot price at a premium to the futures [5]. - **Inventory**: As of the end of August in the 24/25 season, the industrial inventory was 1.16 million tons [5]. - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average was downward, and the K - line was below the 20 - day moving average [5]. - **Main Position**: The net short position decreased, but the main trend was unclear [5]. - **Expectation**: After the National Day holiday, the Zhengzhou sugar market is expected to continue its weak rebound. Two typhoons affected southern Guangxi, and the subsequent yield reduction needs attention [5][8]. 3.3 Today's Focus - No relevant information provided 3.4 Fundamental Data - Different institutions have different forecasts for the 25/26 global sugar supply and demand. ISO predicted a supply gap of 231,000 tons; StoneX expected a 2.77 million - ton surplus; Czarnikow forecast a 7.4 million - ton surplus; Datagro estimated a 1.53 million - ton surplus [5][8][34]. - From 2024/25 to 2025/26, the sugar - crop sowing area, harvest area, yield per unit, sugar production, import, and consumption are presented in the table, with the international sugar price ranging from 16.5 - 21.5 cents per pound and the domestic sugar price from 5,800 - 6,500 yuan/ton in 2025/26 [35]. - The import cost of raw sugar processed and taxed (50% tariff) from different months and sources is shown in the table, such as the cost from Brazil in September 2025 being 5,454 yuan/ton [37]. 3.5 Position Data - No relevant information provided

Market Overview - The main white sugar futures contract experienced a slight increase, closing at 5790 CNY/ton, up by 63 CNY or 1.1%, with a reduction of 15891 contracts [1] Fundamental Summary - According to Williams, a Brazilian shipping agency, the amount of sugar waiting for shipment at ports was 2.7042 million tons for the week ending June 25, down from 2.8539 million tons the previous week [2] - The Brazilian government announced an increase in the ethanol blending ratio in gasoline from 27% to 30%, which may impact the sugar production ratio [3] - Sao Martinho, the world's largest sugar processing company, expects its sugarcane crushing volume for the 2025/26 season to be 22.6 million tons [4] Institutional Perspectives - Hualian Futures noted that the Brazilian National Energy Policy Council will decide later in June whether to raise the ethanol blending ratio, which could boost international sugar prices. China's sugar imports hit a new low in the first five months of 2025, but there was a significant increase in May. With domestic production inventories declining, there is a need for imported sugar to fill the gap, especially as international raw sugar prices have dropped, increasing import profitability. The demand season is gradually improving, and a buy recommendation is suggested with a support level of 5600 CNY/ton for Zheng sugar [5] - Southwest Futures indicated that while Brazilian crushing is expected to accelerate, prices have largely reflected the anticipated increase in production. The escalation of conflict between Israel and Iran has led to a significant rise in crude oil prices, which may increase the ethanol production ratio at Brazilian sugar mills, reducing sugar supply. With low domestic inventories and an expected increase in imports, the supply-demand imbalance is not acute, and the current price basis is high with low valuation. A gradual buying strategy is recommended as the consumption peak season approaches [5]

二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 06 月 22 日 白糖：反弹 周小球 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0001891 zhouxiaoqiu@gtht.com 报告导读： （1）本周市场回顾 国际市场方面，美元指数 98.76（前值 98.15），美元兑巴西雷亚尔 5.50（前值 5.56），WTI 原油价 格 74.04 美元/桶（+1.2%），纽约原糖活跃合约价格 16.53 美分/磅（-0.06%）。截至 6 月 10 日，基金多 单增加 632 手，基金空单增加 20718 手，净多单同比减少 20086 手至-38526 手，净多单大幅减少。 UNICA 数据显示，截至 6 月 1 日，25/26 榨季巴西中南部累计产糖 695 万吨，同比减少 92 万吨。 ISMA/NFCSF 数据显示，截至 5 月 15 日，24/25 榨季印度产糖 2574 万吨，同比减少 580 万吨。OCSB 数 据显示，截至 4 月 9 日，24/25 榨季泰国产糖 1005 万吨，同比增加 131 万吨。 国内市场方面，广西集团现货报价 6030 元/吨，环比上周下跌 30 元/吨；郑糖主力报 5720 元/吨， 环比 ...