交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 白糖早报——2025年10月9日 1、基本面：Czarnikow:上调25/26年度全球食糖过剩预期至740万吨，比8月份预估高出120万吨。 StoneX:预计25/26年度全球糖市供应过剩277万吨。ISO:预计25/26年度全球食糖供应缺口为23.1 万吨，比之前预计缺口大幅减少。2025年8月底，24/25年度本期制糖全国累计产糖1116.21万吨； 全国累计销糖1000万吨；销糖率89.6%。2025年8月中国进口食糖83万吨，同比增加6万吨；7月份 进口糖浆及预混粉等三项合计15.98万吨，同比减少6.85万吨。偏空。 2、基差：柳州现货5890，基差397（01合约），升水期货；偏多。 3、库存：截至8月底24/25榨季工业库存116万吨；中性。 4、盘面：20日均线向下，k线在20日均线下方，偏空。 5、主力持仓：持仓偏空，净持仓空减，主力趋势不明朗，偏空。 6、预期：十一长假，外盘小幅上涨。近期两个台风接连影响广西南部甘蔗产区，强风可使甘蔗倒 伏，强降雨可使甘蔗田积水，后续关注减产情况。节后郑糖开盘预计延续弱势反弹走势。 利多：国内消费较好， ...

Market Overview - The main white sugar futures contract experienced a slight increase, closing at 5790 CNY/ton, up by 63 CNY or 1.1%, with a reduction of 15891 contracts [1] Fundamental Summary - According to Williams, a Brazilian shipping agency, the amount of sugar waiting for shipment at ports was 2.7042 million tons for the week ending June 25, down from 2.8539 million tons the previous week [2] - The Brazilian government announced an increase in the ethanol blending ratio in gasoline from 27% to 30%, which may impact the sugar production ratio [3] - Sao Martinho, the world's largest sugar processing company, expects its sugarcane crushing volume for the 2025/26 season to be 22.6 million tons [4] Institutional Perspectives - Hualian Futures noted that the Brazilian National Energy Policy Council will decide later in June whether to raise the ethanol blending ratio, which could boost international sugar prices. China's sugar imports hit a new low in the first five months of 2025, but there was a significant increase in May. With domestic production inventories declining, there is a need for imported sugar to fill the gap, especially as international raw sugar prices have dropped, increasing import profitability. The demand season is gradually improving, and a buy recommendation is suggested with a support level of 5600 CNY/ton for Zheng sugar [5] - Southwest Futures indicated that while Brazilian crushing is expected to accelerate, prices have largely reflected the anticipated increase in production. The escalation of conflict between Israel and Iran has led to a significant rise in crude oil prices, which may increase the ethanol production ratio at Brazilian sugar mills, reducing sugar supply. With low domestic inventories and an expected increase in imports, the supply-demand imbalance is not acute, and the current price basis is high with low valuation. A gradual buying strategy is recommended as the consumption peak season approaches [5]

二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 06 月 22 日 白糖：反弹 周小球 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0001891 zhouxiaoqiu@gtht.com 报告导读： （1）本周市场回顾 国际市场方面，美元指数 98.76（前值 98.15），美元兑巴西雷亚尔 5.50（前值 5.56），WTI 原油价 格 74.04 美元/桶（+1.2%），纽约原糖活跃合约价格 16.53 美分/磅（-0.06%）。截至 6 月 10 日，基金多 单增加 632 手，基金空单增加 20718 手，净多单同比减少 20086 手至-38526 手，净多单大幅减少。 UNICA 数据显示，截至 6 月 1 日，25/26 榨季巴西中南部累计产糖 695 万吨，同比减少 92 万吨。 ISMA/NFCSF 数据显示，截至 5 月 15 日，24/25 榨季印度产糖 2574 万吨，同比减少 580 万吨。OCSB 数 据显示，截至 4 月 9 日，24/25 榨季泰国产糖 1005 万吨，同比增加 131 万吨。 国内市场方面，广西集团现货报价 6030 元/吨，环比上周下跌 30 元/吨；郑糖主力报 5720 元/吨， 环比 ...