Core Viewpoint - Moutai is redefining the relationship between liquor and consumers by emphasizing a return to its roots, focusing on respecting, connecting, and serving consumers in the evolving landscape of spiritual consumption [1][3][12] Group 1: Event Overview - The 14th China (Guizhou) International Wine Expo was successfully held from September 9 to 13, showcasing Moutai's entire product line and narrating the complete journey of liquor from raw materials to the glass [1] - Moutai's exhibition featured three main areas: "Birth, Growth, and Bloom," highlighting the quality and cultural heritage of Chinese national brands [1][4] Group 2: Cultural and Strategic Shift - Moutai's chairman, Zhang Deqin, emphasized two key points: returning to the essence of Chinese liquor culture and accelerating the shift from selling liquor to selling a lifestyle [3][12] - The liquor industry faces the challenge of reconstructing its value as younger generations drift away from traditional liquor culture, prompting Moutai to adopt a strategy focused on cultural value and consumer experience [4][5] Group 3: Experience and Engagement - Moutai's approach includes creating immersive, experiential, and cultural environments through four dimensions: liquor + ecology, liquor + culture, liquor + technology, and liquor + tourism [6][7] - The exhibition showcased Moutai's commitment to integrating traditional brewing wisdom with modern technology, enhancing consumer trust and engagement [6][7][10] Group 4: Consumer-Centric Practices - Moutai aims to respect, connect, and serve consumers by establishing quality recognition, cultural IPs, and community engagement initiatives [10][11] - The company is expanding its product matrix to meet diverse consumer needs and enhancing its service systems to create fulfilling experiences [10][11] Group 5: Future Vision - Moutai's initiatives reflect a broader industry trend towards cultural-driven strategic transformation, with a focus on emotional and cultural consumption [9][12] - The launch of the 2025 "Chinese Liquor Culture Month" and the "14th Five-Year Plan" for new cultural development indicates a commitment to redefining the core values of liquor culture [12][13]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the food and beverage industry [9] Core Viewpoints - The liquor sector has seen companies initiate performance clearing in Q2, with adjustments in channels and product structures. The performance aligns with market expectations, and Q3 shows signs of marginal recovery in sales [6][58] - The prepared food sector is expected to benefit from the upcoming public consultation on food safety standards, which will enhance industry self-regulation and favor leading brands [7][59] - The new consumption sector is supported by initiatives from platforms like Gaode, which aims to boost offline dining through substantial subsidies [8][60] Summary by Sections Industry News - Gaode will distribute over 1 billion yuan in subsidies to encourage in-store consumption [19] - The draft of the national food safety standard for prepared dishes has passed review [19] - Alcohol prices have decreased by 2.0% year-on-year from January to August [19] Investment Insights - Liquor Sector: Companies like Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao are recommended for their high dividend yields and cyclical advantages [6][58] - Prepared Food Sector: The new food safety standards are expected to clarify the definition and scope of prepared dishes, benefiting leading brands like Anjifood and Qianwei Central Kitchen [7][59] - New Consumption Sector: The introduction of Gaode's "Street Ranking" and support plans is anticipated to increase foot traffic in restaurants [8][60] Key Company Focus and Earnings Forecast - The report highlights key companies in the liquor sector, including Luzhou Laojiao, Gujing Gongjiu, and Wuliangye, all rated as "Buy" with projected earnings per share (EPS) growth [11][12] - In the prepared food sector, companies like Anjifood and Longda Meishi are noted for their potential growth due to industry standards [7][59]

Group 1: Industry Trends - This year is expected to see the highest number of new liquor products launched in recent years, with companies intensively releasing new products ahead of the peak season in September [1] - The 14th China (Guizhou) International Wine Expo concluded with a total trade volume of 18.639 billion yuan, a 72.29% increase from the previous year, and attendance reaching 279,800, doubling from last year [2] Group 2: Company Developments - Chongqing Beer has become the official strategic partner of the 2025 Chongqing Super League, marking a significant sponsorship move as the league expands to include 38 districts and counties [3] - The company Zhenjiu Liudu announced a stock incentive plan for its alliance merchants, offering long-term benefits including stock rewards based on purchase volumes, with the first batch of merchants receiving approximately 150,000 yuan in stock rewards [5] - Luzhou Laojiao's major shareholder completed a share buyback of 234,500 shares for approximately 299.99 million yuan, increasing their stake to 26.13% [6] - Chuanjiu Group announced a 3 billion yuan investment in a standardized raw liquor project, aiming to unify quality control and production processes [7] - Luzhou Laojiao launched a new version of its Erqu liquor, targeting mass consumers with a focus on pure grain fermentation and a new 42-degree product [9] - The upgraded Guizhou Moutai (premium) was officially launched at the wine expo, featuring enhanced packaging and a selling price of 3,299 yuan [11] - Langjiu and Penfolds collaborated to release a limited edition gift box, priced at 8,899 yuan, exclusively available at Langjiu's estate [12] - The new "Taiyuan Light Bottle Wine" was introduced, adhering to Moutai's production standards and focusing on a selective distribution strategy [13] - The company Jinzongzi announced the appointment of Guo Jibao as the new financial director following the resignation of the previous director [19]

Core Viewpoint - The price of Moutai has reached a new low, with significant declines observed in both wholesale and retail prices, indicating a challenging market environment for the brand [1][3][6]. Price Trends - As of September 14, 2023, the wholesale reference price for 25-year Moutai (53 degrees/500ml) in loose bottles is reported at 1770 RMB, down 10 RMB from the previous day, marking a new low since its launch [1]. - The original box price for the same product remains at 1790 RMB, also a new low, reflecting a decline of over 20% from its initial price of 2255 RMB [1]. - The kilogram Moutai (53 degrees/1L) is priced at 3300 RMB, down 18.92% from its launch price of 3700 RMB earlier this year [3]. Market Dynamics - Despite the general trend of declining prices, the white liquor industry is preparing for the peak consumption season around the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival, with Moutai launching several new products to stimulate demand [8]. - Moutai has been actively engaging with over 200 distributors across various regions, indicating a strategic effort to strengthen market presence [8]. - Limited edition products, such as the 70th Anniversary Commemorative Moutai, have been well-received, with a stable wholesale price around 10,000 RMB, reflecting strong demand in the collectible and gifting markets [8]. Product Development - Moutai is expanding its product line with creative cultural products, which have seen rapid sales, indicating a successful diversification strategy [8]. - The company is also iterating on its high-end products, with recent upgrades announced for premium offerings, including new packaging and anti-counterfeiting measures [8]. - The kilogram Moutai is emerging as a new core product, with increasing inquiries and purchases noted in the market [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the liquor sector [3]. Core Insights - The report highlights significant month-on-month sales growth for Moutai in August, with terminal sales in various regions increasing by 15%-35%. It suggests that while there may be pressure on sales during the upcoming double festival, there is potential for improvement, presenting a configuration opportunity for the sector [1][5]. - The consumer goods sector continues to embrace new consumption trends, with strong performance in soft drinks, beer, and condiments, while the liquor sector shows signs of pressure with noticeable deceleration in performance [1][2]. - Recommendations include focusing on leading brands in the liquor sector, such as Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Wuliangye, while also highlighting consumer goods companies like Weidong, Wanchen Group, and Dongpeng Beverage [1][2][13]. Summary by Sections Liquor Sector - Moutai's sales in August showed significant month-on-month growth, with terminal sales increasing by 15%-35% across multiple regions. The report anticipates pressure on sales during the double festival but expects a month-on-month improvement, indicating potential configuration opportunities [1][5]. - The report recommends prioritizing leading brands in the liquor sector, specifically Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Wuliangye, while also suggesting brands with strong market share and lower valuations such as Zhenjiu Lidu and Luzhou Laojiao [1][13]. Consumer Goods Sector - The consumer goods sector is advised to continue capitalizing on new consumption trends. Despite recent adjustments in the new consumption sector due to capital rotation and high valuation pressures, the long-term trend remains positive with clear opportunities for sustainable investment [2][17]. - Recommended stocks include Wanchen Group, New Dairy, Weidong, and Qingdao Beer, among others, while also highlighting potential stocks like Jindaiwei and Tea Baidao [2][17]. Market Performance - From September 8 to September 12, the CSI 300 index rose by 1.38%, with the meat products sector (+2.79%) and liquor sector (+1.73%) leading the gains, while beer (-0.98%) and other liquor categories (-0.83%) experienced declines [2][22]. - The report notes that the liquor sector's valuation has adjusted, with the liquor sector currently at 19.82 times earnings, indicating a potential for value investment [27].

Core Viewpoint - Guizhou Moutai reported a revenue of 91.094 billion yuan and a net profit of 45.403 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, showing a year-on-year growth of 9.16% and 8.89% respectively, despite a slowdown in profit growth [2][3]. Financial Performance - The company achieved a total revenue of 91.094 billion yuan, marking a 9.16% increase year-on-year [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 45.403 billion yuan, reflecting an 8.89% year-on-year growth [2]. - The company has a three-year dividend plan, committing to distribute no less than 75% of the annual net profit as cash dividends from 2024 to 2026 [3]. Dividend Policy - For 2024, the proposed cash dividend is 276.24 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 34.671 billion yuan, with an expected cumulative dividend of approximately 64.7 billion yuan for the year, resulting in a dividend rate of 75% and a dividend yield of about 3.33% [3]. - The company is considering maintaining its dividend policy and has already implemented a buyback of 6 billion yuan this year [4]. Market Strategy - The company is focusing on optimizing market strategies and maintaining channel resilience amid industry adjustments and changing consumer trends [2]. - There has been a noted improvement in terminal sales as of late August, with significant growth compared to June and July, indicating a potential positive market trend [5]. Product Development - Guizhou Moutai has launched several new products this year, including limited editions and creative cultural products, which have been well-received in the market [5]. - The company is committed to enhancing brand building and consumer group cultivation, particularly in series wines and overseas markets [5]. Sales and Marketing - The sales expense ratio remains around 3%, the lowest in the industry, indicating effective cost management despite absolute increases in sales expenses [6]. - The company is adapting its marketing strategies and expanding consumption scenarios to meet the rational consumption trends in the market [6].

Core Insights - The white liquor industry is entering a peak season as the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival approach, with Moutai signaling a positive market recovery [1] - Moutai's management has conducted extensive market research, indicating a significant increase in terminal sales since late August, suggesting a favorable market trend [1][2] - Despite a generally sluggish consumption atmosphere in the white liquor sector this year, Moutai has successfully launched new products and adapted its strategies to meet diverse consumer demands [2][3] Market Trends - Moutai's management has emphasized the importance of continuous market research to inform operational decisions, with multiple surveys conducted across various provinces and channels [2] - The third quarter, typically a slow season for white liquor consumption, has seen Moutai introduce several new products that cater to niche markets, such as collectible and gift items [2] - The price of Moutai's core products, including the 1000ml Moutai, has recently increased, reflecting a growing demand in the market [3] Product Strategy - Moutai is diversifying its product offerings, including limited edition and cultural products, to enhance consumer engagement and drive sales [2][3] - The company has adopted a multi-channel strategy, ensuring that different products are marketed through appropriate channels based on consumer response and market demand [5] - Moutai's core products remain the main revenue drivers, with a focus on understanding and adapting to changing consumer preferences and behaviors [3][4] Channel Strategy - The concept of "collaboration" has become central to Moutai's channel development strategy, aiming to enhance efficiency and create a complementary channel ecosystem [5] - Moutai has established a "4+6" channel layout system to optimize the functionality of various sales channels [5] - The management has reiterated the importance of maintaining strategic focus to navigate market fluctuations and ensure sustained growth [5]

Group 1 - The food and beverage sector experienced a pullback on September 11, with the Food ETF (515710) opening briefly in the green before turning negative, showing a decline of 0.62% as of the report [1] - Major consumer goods stocks, particularly leading liquor brands, performed poorly, with New Dairy and Jindawei dropping over 2%, and other companies like Yanjinpuzi and Miaokelan falling over 1% [1] - The recent China (Guizhou) International Wine Expo showcased the upgraded Guizhou Moutai, which was released at a price of 3299 yuan per bottle, highlighting the brand's high-end positioning [1][3] Group 2 - Analysts noted that the upgraded Moutai, featuring eco-friendly materials and anti-counterfeiting technology, aims to enhance product premium capabilities and strengthen Moutai's position in the high-end liquor market [3] - The food and beverage sector's valuation remains low, with the Food ETF's underlying index PE ratio at 21.44 times, indicating a favorable configuration opportunity for investors [3] - The overall sentiment in the food and beverage sector is expected to improve due to recent policy measures aimed at reversing macroeconomic expectations and boosting both valuation and performance [4] Group 3 - The food and beverage sector faced significant policy impacts in Q2, leading to industry adjustments and a noticeable decline in demand, but recovery is anticipated in the latter half of the year due to low base effects and relaxed policy controls [5] - The Food ETF (515710) primarily invests in leading high-end and mid-range liquor stocks, with about 60% of its portfolio allocated to these sectors, while also including dairy, seasoning, and beer stocks [5] - The fund manager emphasized the sector's high and relatively stable ROE and profitability, with the competitive landscape shifting towards consolidation, benefiting industry leaders [4]

Group 1 - The 14th China (Guizhou) International Wine Expo opened in Guiyang with the theme "Gathering Global Fine Wines to Promote Open Cooperation" [1] - Moutai Group showcased its various subsidiaries, emphasizing the unique regional characteristics of Moutai liquor through traditional craftsmanship and microbiological technology [1][3] - Moutai is responding to market demands with its upgraded Guizhou Moutai liquor, incorporating a "heritage + innovation" concept while enhancing its packaging and production techniques [3] Group 2 - Moutai is focusing on consumer experience by reshaping emotional value and expanding product offerings for social drinking scenarios [3][4] - The company is committed to sustainable value creation, linking ecological protection, rural revitalization, and cultural IP development to its global market expansion strategy [4] - Moutai's chairman emphasized the company's core values and the launch of cultural initiatives to enhance brand engagement and consumer interaction [3][4]

Core Viewpoint - The 14th China (Guizhou) International Wine Expo highlights the cultural depth and innovative practices of Moutai Group, showcasing its commitment to quality and sustainability in the liquor industry [1][3]. Group 1: Moutai Group's Participation and Innovations - Moutai Group, as one of the organizers, showcased various products from its subsidiaries, emphasizing the dual practice of "inheritance" and "innovation" [1]. - The exhibition area was designed around the themes of "birth," "growth," and "bloom," illustrating the unique regional characteristics of Moutai liquor and the importance of quality [1]. - The upgraded Guizhou Moutai liquor features a "heritage + innovation" concept, retaining classic elements while enhancing packaging and presentation to improve consumer experience [5]. Group 2: Cultural and Social Responsibility - Chairman Zhang Deqin emphasized Moutai's values of "respecting nature and people," integrating ecological protection, industry support, and consumer interaction [3]. - Over the past decade, Moutai has invested over 10 billion yuan in public welfare, benefiting 8.5 million farmers and contributing to their income [3]. Group 3: Consumer Engagement and Market Strategy - Moutai has established deep consumer-brand dialogue through events like "Qian Wine China Tour" and "Huang Xiaoxi T² Music Art Festival" [7]. - The company aims to reshape consumer experience through "emotional value" and plans to expand its product offerings and digital services by 2025 [5][7]. - Moutai is focused on sustainable value creation, addressing ecological protection, rural revitalization, and global market expansion [7].