周四(12月4日)欧盘时段，现货白银刚刚失守57.00美元/盎司关口，最新报56.99美元/盎司，日内跌 2.56%；COMEX白银期货主力最新报57.51美元/盎司，日内跌1.89%；关键阻力位的压制下，警惕白银 行情出现深度回调走势。 【要闻速递】 白银价格不断创新高，是实物白银供需失衡、美联储货币政策影响与全球大量资金涌入共同作用的结 果。实物白银持续扩大的供需缺口，是支撑白银此轮上涨的核心因素。2025年全球矿产白银产量降至 8.2亿盎司，较2020年峰值下降12%。 从现货层面来看，在两个月之前，伦敦白银库存由于现货难以满足交割，拉高了欧洲的白银现货升水， 对国内白银现货形成贸易流驱动。国内白银现货市场出现吃紧，国内白银期货市场三年来首次出现现货 升水和近月升水格局。美国白银市场也面临12月交割的问题，实物交割紧张或进一步推动白银价格上 涨。 世界白银协会数据显示，受高银价抑制，2025年全球白银首饰需求预计为2.05亿盎司，同比下降5%左 右；2025年全球白银总投资需求(银条银币+ETF)达13.34亿盎司，同比增长8.2%，创历史新高，占全球 白银总需求的37%，成为支撑银价的核心力量。 【最 ...

Core Viewpoint - The silver market is experiencing a liquidity crisis, leading to a significant price increase, with silver reaching a historical high of $52.38 per ounce, a 73% increase since the beginning of the year [1] Group 1: Liquidity Crisis in the London Silver Market - The liquidity crisis in the London silver market is attributed to a long-term trend of declining inventory, exacerbated by short-term events and increased investment demand [2] - As of the end of July, the share of available silver inventory in London was approximately 20%, the lowest since data was published [2] - The imbalance between physical supply and demand and the financial market's leverage is a core issue, with non-ETF inventory at a ten-year low and significant ETF holdings creating a mismatch [2][3] Group 2: Factors Contributing to Price Surge - The surge in silver prices is primarily driven by tightening liquidity in the market and soaring silver borrowing rates, leading to a short squeeze [4] - The expectation of increased tariffs on silver imports due to U.S. policy proposals has raised concerns about supply chain stability, further tightening the market [3] Group 3: Investment Trends and Future Outlook - There is a notable structural inflow of funds into the silver market, with record high holdings in silver ETFs, indicating strong institutional interest [5] - Short-term projections suggest that silver prices may remain strong due to Fed rate cut expectations and supply-demand mismatches, while long-term trends indicate a shift from industrial metal to a value storage asset [5]

Core Viewpoint - Investment demand for gold and silver is expected to be supported by economic risks related to U.S. tariffs and immigration policies, government spending, and global instability [1] Group 1 - Analysts from CPM Group, led by Jeffrey Christian, highlight that the current economic environment is favorable for precious metals [1] - The report emphasizes that both gold and silver will see increased investment demand due to the outlined economic risks [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that silver prices are expected to rise significantly, potentially surpassing gold by 2025 due to geopolitical risks, inflation concerns, and positive price expectations [1][2] - The gold-silver ratio has shown a significant decline from the recent peak of over 100, currently returning to 90, with optimistic projections suggesting it could stabilize at 50, leading to silver prices reaching $70 per ounce [1][2] - Historical data shows that during periods of stagflation, silver has outperformed gold, with notable price increases in previous stagflation periods, indicating that silver may continue to be a strong investment alternative [2][3] Group 2 - The market has a significant misunderstanding regarding silver pricing, particularly in the context of stagflation, where silver's investment demand has historically driven price increases despite industrial demand fluctuations [2][3] - The industrial demand for silver, particularly from the photovoltaic sector, is not expected to negatively impact the supply-demand balance, as historical trends show that declines in certain industrial uses have not hindered silver's bull markets [2][3] - Investment demand has been the dominant factor influencing silver's price fluctuations since 2005, overshadowing the impact of industrial and jewelry demand [3] Group 3 - Related Hong Kong stocks in the silver industry include China Silver Group (00815), which may benefit from the anticipated rise in silver prices [4]