研究报告 Research Report 18 Nov 2025 零跑汽车 Zhejiang Leapmotor Technology (9863 HK) 规模效应持续释放，零跑盈利质量进入改善通道 Scale Benefits Materialize; Leapmotor Enters a Clear Margin-Improvement Cycle [Table_yemei 观点聚焦 1] Investment Focus [Table_Info] 维持优于大市 Maintain OUTPERFORM 评级 优于大市 OUTPERFORM 现价 HK$54.80 目标价 HK$73.51 HTI ESG 3.5-3.3-4.0 E-S-G: 0-5, (Please refer to the Appendix for ESG comments) 市值 HK$61.98bn / US$7.97bn 日交易额 (3 个月均值) US$60.60mn 发行股票数目 1,131mn 自由流通股 (%) 60% 1 年股价最高最低值 HK$73.50-HK$27.70 注：现价 HK$54.80 为 2025 年 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company reported significant performance recovery in the first three quarters of 2025, with total revenue reaching 361 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29.73%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 77.53 million yuan, up 287.11% year-on-year [1][7] - The high growth in performance is primarily attributed to significant contributions from non-recurring gains, amounting to 68 million yuan, while the core profit (deducting non-recurring items) only slightly increased by 2.72% [7] - The sales gross margin decreased to 45.53% from 54.59% in the same period last year, mainly due to a 55.63% increase in operating costs, which outpaced revenue growth [7] - The company maintains a healthy asset-liability structure with a debt ratio of 24.30%, indicating manageable leverage risk [7] - Cash flow performance has improved, with net cash flow from operating activities reaching 11 million yuan, a significant recovery from a negative 48 million yuan in the same period last year [7] Financial Forecasts - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 105 million yuan, 159 million yuan, and 235 million yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, corresponding to P/E ratios of 44, 29, and 20 times [7][8] - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 529 million yuan, 678 million yuan, and 838 million yuan, reflecting growth rates of 33.41%, 28.30%, and 23.61% respectively [8]

Market Overview - A-shares showed mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 0.02%, while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext Index fell by 0.70% and 1.21% respectively [1][2]. Sector Performance - Strong sectors included shipbuilding, electricity, real estate, and internet e-commerce, while bioproducts, weight loss drugs, and AI mobile phone sectors faced significant declines [4]. - Real estate stocks saw a surge, with companies like Yucheng Development and Shahe Shares hitting the daily limit [5]. - Electricity stocks experienced a notable rally, with nearly ten stocks, including Shaoneng Shares and Huayin Electric, reaching the daily limit [6]. Capital Flow - Main capital inflows were observed in real estate and banking sectors, while education and engineering machinery sectors experienced net outflows [7]. - Specific stocks like Qingdao Jinwang and Tianyu Shuke saw net inflows of 642 million and 611 million respectively [8]. - Conversely, stocks such as Zhongji Xuchuang and Dongfang Caifu faced significant sell-offs, with outflows of 692 million and 496 million respectively [9]. Institutional Insights - According to Caitong Securities, the mid-year reporting period is a critical window for identifying structural opportunities, emphasizing the importance of performance-driven investments in sectors like solid-state batteries, copper, aluminum, and pharmaceuticals [10]. - Guocheng Investment noted that small-cap stocks are weakening due to new regulations on algorithmic trading, which have reduced liquidity in this segment [10]. - CITIC Securities highlighted that the Shanghai Composite Index reached a new high since 2025, driven by improvements in macroeconomic conditions, market sentiment, and positive mid-year earnings forecasts [10].

Market Performance - The A-share market showed mixed results with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 0.02%, while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext Index fell by 0.7% and 1.21% respectively, with over 3200 stocks rising overall [1][3] Sector Performance - The shipbuilding, electric power, real estate, and internet e-commerce sectors performed strongly, while the biopharmaceuticals, weight loss drugs, and AI mobile phone sectors saw significant declines [1][3] Notable Stocks - Real estate stocks surged, with companies like Yucheng Development, Shahe Shares, and Nanshan Holdings hitting the daily limit, while others like Haitai Development and JinDi Group also saw gains [3] - Electric power stocks experienced a notable rally, with nearly 10 stocks including Shaoneng Shares and Huayin Electric reaching the daily limit [3] Stock Price Movements - Significant stock price increases included: - Disen Shares (+18.56% to 7.09) - Nanguang Technology (+14.72% to 35.46) - Shaoneng Shares (+10.07% to 6.12) - Huayin Electric (+10.02% to 6.70) - Shimao Energy (+10.01% to 21.00) [4] Capital Flow - Main capital inflows were observed in the real estate and banking sectors, while education and engineering machinery sectors experienced net outflows [5] - Individual stocks with notable net inflows included Qingdao Kingking, Tianyu Digital Science, and Hailian Jinhui, attracting 642 million, 611 million, and 514 million respectively [6] - Stocks facing significant net outflows included Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyi Sheng, and Dongfang Caifu, with outflows of 692 million, 496 million, and 378 million respectively [7] Institutional Insights - Citic Securities highlighted the mid-year reporting period as a critical window for identifying structural opportunities, emphasizing the importance of performance-driven investments in sectors like solid-state batteries, copper, aluminum, and pharmaceuticals [8] - Guo Cheng Investment noted that small-cap stocks are under pressure due to new regulations on algorithmic trading, which may lead to decreased liquidity in this segment [8] - Zhongxin Jian Investment pointed out that the Shanghai Composite Index reached a new high since 2025, driven by improvements in macroeconomic conditions, market sentiment, and positive mid-year earnings forecasts [8]