12月16日，短纤现货加工费至1114元/吨附近，PF2602盘面加工费至914元/吨，PF2603盘面加工费至885 元/吨。 【现货方面】 12月16日，短纤现货方面工厂报价维稳，半光1.4D主流报价在6400~6500区间。期货震荡盘整，贸易商 及期现商商谈走货，半光1.4D主流商谈重心多在6100~6400区间，销售一般。直纺涤短工厂销售同样回 落，截止下午3:00附近，平均产销46%。 【利润方面】 【供需方面】 免责声明：本报告中的信息均来源于被广发期货有限公司认为可靠的已公开资料，但广发期货对这些信 息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。在任何情况下，报告内容仅供参考，报告中的信息或所表达的意见 并不构成所述品种买卖的出价或询价，投资者据此投资，风险自担。本报告的最终所有权归报告的来源 机构所有，客户在接收到本报告后，应遵循报告来源机构对报告的版权规定，不得刊载或转发。 需求：下游维稳走货，销售偏弱，库存维持小增。 【行情展望】 除个别装置检修外，目前短纤尚有利润且工厂库存压力不大，短纤供应维持高位；需求上，终端需求季 节性转弱中。短期短纤库存压力不大，叠加价格阶段性低位下游会适量采购，但因纱厂订单季 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information regarding industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Methanol Industry - The inland market will see a continuous increase in production. The marginal devices in the inland area are in a loss - making state. The market sentiment has improved due to some Iranian devices starting to shut down due to gas restrictions. The price and basis have both strengthened. It is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term [1]. Crude Oil Industry - Overnight oil prices rebounded due to the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in December and the unsuccessful Russia - Ukraine negotiations. However, under the pressure of continuous production increase by OPEC+ and the record - high US crude oil production, the supply - demand pattern of crude oil remains weak. Brent crude oil is expected to fluctuate in the range of $60 - 66 per barrel in the short term [5]. Polyolefin Industry - For PP, there is a pattern of both supply and demand increasing. The supply has recovered due to fewer maintenance, and the inventory has decreased slightly. For PE, there is a situation of increasing supply and decreasing demand. Although the unplanned maintenance eases some supply pressure, the imported goods are abundant, and the demand is generally weak. The 01 contract is still under great pressure [8]. Glass and Soda Ash Industry - Soda ash has an overall surplus pattern. The weekly production has declined due to some devices reducing their loads, and the soda ash factories have reduced their inventory stage by stage. In the medium term, the demand for soda ash will continue the previous rigid - demand pattern. The supply - demand situation will be further pressured without actual capacity withdrawal or load reduction. Glass has a short - term positive performance driven by cold - repair benefits, but in the long term, it is still under pressure due to the weakening demand and the surplus pattern [9]. Styrene Industry - For pure benzene, the supply is generally loose, and the demand support is limited. The port inventory has increased significantly, and the supply - demand expectation is generally loose. The price may be adjusted due to the drag of oil prices in the short term. For styrene, the supply of goods is limited, and the demand support is expected to be limited. The rebound space is restricted [10]. Natural Rubber Industry - The supply cost is strongly supported, but the inventory is increasing seasonally, and the terminal demand support is insufficient. The downstream enterprise's operating rate is expected to decline further. The natural rubber market is expected to enter a range - bound consolidation [11]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - Caustic soda has certain supply - demand pressure, and the price is expected to be weak. PVC has a surplus supply - demand pattern, and the price is expected to continue the weak trend at the bottom [12]. Polyester Industry - PX has limited short - term drive but strong medium - term support. PTA's supply - demand expectation has been significantly repaired, but the rebound space is limited. Ethylene glycol is expected to fluctuate at a low level. Short - fiber's supply - demand is weak, and the processing fee is expected to be compressed. Bottle - chip's supply - demand is in a loose pattern, and the processing fee is expected to decline [13]. LPG Industry - The LPG price has declined, the inventory has increased, and the operating rates of upstream and downstream industries have changed. The overall market situation needs further attention [15]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Methanol Industry - **Price and Spread**: MA2601 and MA2605 prices increased, with increases of 3.64% and 2.81% respectively. The regional spread between Taicang and Inner Mongolia's northern line increased by 475.00% [1]. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise inventory, port inventory, and social inventory all decreased, with decreases of 2.86%, 4.16%, and 3.91% respectively [1]. - **Operating Rate**: The operating rate of domestic upstream enterprises decreased by 0.38%, while that of overseas upstream enterprises increased by 0.30%. The operating rate of downstream MTO devices remained unchanged [1]. Crude Oil Industry - **Price and Spread**: Brent and WTI crude oil prices increased, with increases of 1.29% and 1.34% respectively. The refined oil cracking spreads of different regions showed different changes [5]. Polyolefin Industry - **Price and Spread**: The closing prices of L2601, L2605, PP2601, and other contracts increased to varying degrees. The L15 and PP15 spreads increased by 14.75% and 12.82% respectively [8]. - **Operating Rate**: The PE device operating rate decreased by 0.51%, and the PP device operating rate decreased by 1.60% [8]. - **Inventory**: PE and PP enterprise inventories decreased, with decreases of 4.89% and 4.23% respectively [8]. Glass and Soda Ash Industry - **Price and Spread**: Glass 2601 price increased by 2.63%, and soda ash 2601 and 2605 prices increased by 1.11% and 1.20% respectively [9]. - **Operating Rate and Production**: The soda ash operating rate decreased by 4.85%, and the weekly production decreased by 4.86%. The float - glass daily melting volume decreased by 1.98% [9]. - **Inventory**: The glass factory's soda ash inventory days increased by 2.15%, and the soda ash factory's inventory decreased by 0.93% [9]. Styrene Industry - **Price and Spread**: The prices of upstream raw materials such as Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil increased. The price of styrene's EB2601 decreased by 1.1% [10]. - **Inventory**: The inventories of pure benzene and styrene in Jiangsu ports increased by 11.6% and 10.7% respectively [10]. - **Operating Rate**: The domestic pure benzene operating rate decreased by 1.7%, and the styrene operating rate decreased by 0.4% [10]. Natural Rubber Industry - **Price and Spread**: The price of Yunnan state - owned standard rubber increased by 1.36%, and the full - latex basis increased by 24.49% [11]. - **Production and Operating Rate**: The production of natural rubber in some regions decreased, and the operating rates of automobile tire factories decreased [11]. - **Inventory**: The bonded - area inventory and the warehouse - receipt inventory of natural rubber in the SHFE increased by 3.60% and 1.01% respectively [11]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - **Price and Spread**: The price of Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda decreased by 2.6%, and the price of East China calcium - carbide - based PVC increased by 0.5% [12]. - **Operating Rate**: The caustic soda industry operating rate increased by 0.6%, and the PVC total operating rate increased by 1.0% [12]. - **Inventory**: The liquid caustic soda inventory in East China and Shandong increased, while the PVC upstream factory inventory decreased by 2.1% [12]. Polyester Industry - **Price and Spread**: The prices of some polyester products such as POY150/48 decreased, and the price of CFR China PX increased by 0.2% [13]. - **Operating Rate**: The Asian PX operating rate increased by 1.5%, and the PTA operating rate decreased by 4.8% [13]. - **Inventory**: The MEG port inventory remained unchanged, and the arrival expectation decreased by 14.4% [13]. LPG Industry - **Price and Spread**: The prices of LPG futures contracts such as PG2512 and PG2601 decreased. The PG12 - 01 spread increased by 21.67% [15]. - **Inventory**: The LPG port inventory increased by 6.28%, and the port storage - capacity ratio increased by 6.29% [15]. - **Operating Rate**: The upstream main - refinery operating rate decreased by 3.35%, and the downstream PDH operating rate decreased by 2.93% [15].

7月28日，短纤现货加工费至997元/吨附近，PF2509盘面加工费至895元/吨，PF2510盘面加工费至942 元/吨。 【供需方面】 【现货方面】 供应：截至7月25日，检修装置重启，短纤负荷回升至90.6%附近（+1.1%）。 7月28日，直纺涤短期货跟随原料弱势下跌。现货方面工厂报价维持，成交多维稳，销售转弱。期现及 贸易商价格走低，下游采购增多，成交放量明显。部分基差走强，新凤鸣（603225）、三房巷 （600370）货源09+150~160元/吨，逸达、华西村货源09+100元/吨。 【利润方面】 【行情展望】 目前短纤供需边际转弱。上周在国内宏观情绪带动下价格有所反弹，但下游接盘能力弱，持续追涨意愿 不强，短纤涨幅不及原料，加工费压缩明显。短期短纤供需预期仍偏弱，绝对价格随原料震荡。策略 上，单边同TA；PF盘面加工费在800-1100区间震荡，上下驱动均有限。 免责声明：本报告中的信息均来源于被广发期货有限公司认为可靠的已公开资料，但广发期货对这些信 息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。在任何情况下，报告内容仅供参考，报告中的信息或所表达的意见 并不构成所述品种买卖的出价或询价，投资者据此投资 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints Urea - Despite high domestic urea daily production, short - term maintenance led to a decline. The release of aid - related export orders from May to June and the upcoming summer top - dressing season are expected to support the market. However, price increases will be cautious, and the market is likely to fluctuate at a high level in the near term [5]. Crude Oil - Overnight oil prices continued to fluctuate at a high level. In the short term, after the market digests macro - level positives, it may focus on the impact of geopolitical factors on supply. Oil prices are expected to remain at a relatively high level. It is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see approach for unilateral trading, and consider strategies to capture volatility on the options side [14]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX: The supply - demand outlook is improving, but the current spot supply is still loose. Consider opportunities such as long PX05 and short crude oil [18]. - PTA: Supply - demand may gradually weaken, and the absolute price will follow the cost side. TA01 is expected to oscillate between 4800 - 5000 [18]. - Ethylene Glycol: Supply - demand will gradually weaken, and there is pressure on the upside in the medium - to - long term. Pay attention to port inventory and upstream - downstream operating rates [18]. - Short Fiber: The processing fee is expected to be compressed, and the absolute price will follow the cost side. PF02 is expected to operate between 6800 - 7100 [18]. - Bottle Chip: The supply - demand situation remains loose, and the absolute price will follow the cost side. Consider short - term short - selling strategies [18]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic Soda: The supply is in a concentrated maintenance phase, and the demand from the alumina industry is improving. The spot price is rising, and the futures market is strong. Consider short - term short - selling opportunities near the resistance level of 2550 [26]. - PVC: Although the futures market has strengthened slightly, the supply - demand surplus problem persists. It is recommended to wait and see during price rebounds and consider short - selling in the medium term [26]. Styrene - In the short term, styrene is expected to remain strong, but be cautious about chasing high prices. The operating range of 06 is expected to move up to 7000 - 7600. Pay attention to the continuity of spot transactions [29]. Polyolefins (PE and PP) - The supply pressure of plastics will gradually decrease in May. The supply pressure of PP will ease slightly in the second quarter. Pay attention to the restocking and export situation of plastic products [32]. Methanol - The inland valuation has downward pressure, and the supply - demand situation is loose. The port has entered a inventory - building period. It is recommended to short the MA09 contract at high prices [35][37]. Summary by Directory Urea Futures Prices - On May 12, the 01 contract closed at 1801 yuan/ton, up 0.61% from May 9; the 05 contract closed at 1925 yuan/ton, down 0.52%; the 09 contract closed at 1897 yuan/ton, up 0.21%; the methanol main contract closed at 2270 yuan/ton, up 1.93% [1]. Futures Contract Spreads - On May 12, the spread between the 01 and 05 contracts was - 124 yuan/ton, up 14.48% from May 9; the spread between the 05 and 09 contracts was 28 yuan/ton, down 33.33% [2]. Upstream Raw Materials - As of May 13, the prices of upstream raw materials such as anthracite small pieces, steam coal, and synthetic ammonia remained unchanged compared to May 12 [3]. Spot Market Prices - As of May 13, domestic and international spot prices of urea remained unchanged [3]. Supply - Demand Overview - Daily data: Domestic urea daily production decreased by 1.20% to 19.72 million tons on May 8 compared to before. - Weekly data: Domestic urea weekly production increased by 0.21% to 139.60 million tons; factory inventory decreased by 10.58% to 106.56 million tons; port inventory increased by 12.71% to 13.30 million tons [5]. Crude Oil Prices and Spreads - On May 13, Brent crude oil was at 64.96 dollars/barrel, up 1.64% from May 12; WTI was at 61.96 dollars/barrel, up 0.02%; SC was at 474.80 yuan/barrel, up 1.34% [14]. Polyester Industry Chain Upstream Prices - On May 12, Brent crude oil (July) was at 64.96 dollars/barrel, up 1.6% from May 9; WTI (June) was at 61.95 dollars/barrel, up 1.5% [18]. Downstream Product Prices and Cash Flows - On May 12, POY150/48 price was 6675 yuan/ton, up 1.4% from May 9; FDY150/96 price was 6845 yuan/ton, up 1.7% [18]. PX - related - CFR China PX was at 785 dollars/ton on May 12, unchanged from May 9 [18]. PTA - related - PTA East China spot price was 4840 yuan/ton on May 12, up 2.7% from May 9 [18]. MEG - related - MEG port inventory was 75.1 million tons on May 12, down 6.8% from May 6 [18]. PVC and Caustic Soda Spot and Futures Prices - On May 12, Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda equivalent price was 2593.8 yuan/ton, up 1.2% from before; East China calcium - carbide - based PVC market price was 4660 yuan/ton, unchanged [22]. Overseas Quotes and Export Profits - FOB East China port caustic soda was at 395 dollars/ton on May 8, down 1.3% from May 1 [22]. Supply - Demand and Inventory - Caustic soda industry operating rate was 87.5% on May 9, up 1.3% from May 2; PVC total operating rate was 77.9%, up 1.4% [24]. Styrene Upstream and Related Prices - On May 12, Brent crude oil (July) was at 64.96 dollars/barrel, up 1.6% from May 9; WTI (June) was at 61.95 dollars/barrel, up 1.5% [29]. Styrene - related - Styrene East China spot price was 7530 yuan/ton on May 12, up 5.0% from May 9 [29]. Downstream Product Prices and Cash Flows - EPS ordinary material (East China) was at 8250 yuan/ton on May 12, down 1.2% from May 9 [29]. Inventory and Operating Rates - Pure benzene East China port inventory was 13.40 million tons on May 7, up 10.7% from April 30; styrene East China port inventory was 6.25 million tons, down 15.3% [29]. Polyolefins (PE and PP) Prices and Spreads - On May 12, L2505 closed at 7282 yuan/ton, up 0.72% from May 9; PP2505 closed at 7100 yuan/ton, up 0.34% [32]. Operating Rates and Inventory - PE device operating rate was 84.1% on May 12, down 0.91% from before; PP device operating rate was 79.7%, up 7.2% [32]. Methanol Prices and Spreads - On May 12, MA2505 closed at 2338 yuan/ton, up 2.10% from May 9; the spread between MA2505 and MA2509 was 68 yuan/ton, up 7.94% [35]. Inventory and Operating Rates - Methanol enterprise inventory was 30.391% on May 12, up 7.26% from before; upstream domestic enterprise operating rate was 75.65%, up 1.64% [35].