Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The silicon manganese market is expected to oscillate. Macro factors, such as the emphasis on promoting the orderly exit of backward production capacity by the Sixth Meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission, have improved commodity sentiment. Fundamentally, the inventory is moderately high, and the steel demand is in the off - season, with macro factors having a greater impact [6]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Week - to - Week Summary - **Macro Aspect**: From July 14th to 15th, the Central Urban Work Conference emphasized the transition of urban development to the "stock quality improvement and efficiency enhancement stage". The China National Coal Association stressed coal supply quality. Jiangsu plans to increase the proportion of short - process steelmaking output. In 2025, coal consumption is expected to decline by about 5% compared to 2020. Overseas, Trump reached an agreement with Indonesia, and the US 6 - month PPI growth was lower than expected [6]. - **Supply and Demand**: Manufacturer's operating rate rebounded from a low level, with moderately high inventory. The port inventory of imported manganese ore increased by 7.70 tons, and downstream hot metal production was at a high level. The spot profit in Inner Mongolia was - 90 yuan/ton, and in Ningxia was - 110 yuan/ton [6]. - **Technical Aspect**: The weekly K - line of the manganese - silicon main contract was below the 60 - day moving average, showing a bearish trend [6]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Treat the silicon manganese market as oscillating, as macro factors have a greater impact than fundamentals due to the off - season of steel demand and moderately high inventory [6]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: The open interest decreased by 21,000 lots, and the monthly spread decreased by 18 points. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 5,106, and the spread between the manganese - silicon and ferrosilicon September contracts increased by 10 [8][12][14]. - **Spot Market**: The Inner Mongolia silicon - manganese spot price increased by 30 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 174 yuan/ton, a decrease of 28 [22]. 3. Industry Chain Situation - **Manufacturer**: The operating rate declined slightly, but the daily output increased. The demand from the five major steel products decreased by 1.24%, while the national silicon - manganese supply increased by 0.31%. The manufacturer's inventory decreased by 4,500 tons [25][30]. - **Upstream**: The Inner Mongolia electricity fee increased by 0.01 yuan/kWh, and the Australian manganese ore price increased by 3 yuan/ton - degree. The port inventory of imported manganese ore increased by 7.70 tons. The spot production profit in the northern region was - 100 yuan/ton, and in the southern region was - 410 yuan/ton [32][36][45]. - **Downstream**: The hot metal production was at a high level, and the July silicon - manganese steel procurement price increased by 200 yuan/ton [47][49].

Report Title - Silicon Manganese Market Weekly Report: Inventory Suppresses Price Rebound, Coal Drags Down Cost Support [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - The silicon manganese market is expected to oscillate weakly. Despite manufacturers reducing production and the operating rate reaching a low level compared to the same period, high overall inventory suppresses prices. The coal price is weak on the cost side, and steel mills mainly make rigid - demand purchases on the demand side [5][6] Summary by Directory 1. Week - to - Week Summary - **Macro Aspect**: From January to April, China's cumulative crude steel production was 345.35 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.4%. The central budget investment plan for urban renewal this year will be issued by the end of June. In May, both the 5 - year and 1 - year LPRs were cut by 10 basis points. In April, China's rebar production was 17.30 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.9%, while the cumulative production from January to April was 65.385 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.9% [6] - **Overseas Aspect**: Trump announced a $100 - billion missile defense system. The yield of the 30 - year US Treasury bond soared to 5.1%, approaching a 20 - year high, indicating investors' opposition to Trump's tax - cut plan and concerns about fiscal deficits putting pressure on the stock market [6] - **Supply - Demand Aspect**: The wage negotiation between South Africa's Transnet and the UNTU union may lead to a strike, affecting manganese ore shipments, causing a short - term price increase in manganese silicon. After the short - term news impact fades, the price returns to a weak reality. Manufacturers' production cuts have led to a low operating rate, but the overall inventory is still high. The port inventory of imported manganese ore has increased by 231,000 tons, and there is an expectation of coke price cuts. The molten iron output has declined from a high level. The spot profit in Inner Mongolia is - 190 yuan/ton, and in Ningxia is - 230 yuan/ton. Steel mills' procurement is cautious, and the tender price continues to fall [6] - **Technical Aspect**: The weekly K - line of the manganese silicon main contract is below the 60 - day moving average, showing a bearish trend [6] - **Strategy Suggestion**: Operate with the view that silicon manganese will oscillate weakly [6] 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: As of May 23, the silicon manganese futures contract open interest was 618,900 lots, a decrease of 1,543 lots compared to the previous period. The spread between the 1 - 9 contracts of silicon manganese was 62, a decrease of 12 compared to the previous period. The number of manganese silicon warehouse receipts was 114,457, a decrease of 3,730 compared to the previous period. The spread between the September contracts of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon was 288, an increase of 48 compared to the previous period [12][16] - **Spot Market**: As of May 23, the average ex - factory price of silicon manganese in Inner Mongolia was 5,650 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 50 yuan/ton. The basis was - 68 yuan/ton, an increase of 190 compared to the previous period [22] 3. Industrial Chain Situation - **Industry**: As of May 22, the operating rate (capacity utilization) of 187 independent silicon manganese enterprises nationwide was 34.18%, an increase of 0.58% compared to the previous week. The daily average output was 23,600 tons, an increase of 350 tons. The weekly demand for silicon manganese in the five major steel grades was 126,590 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.76%. The weekly supply of silicon manganese nationwide was 165,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.51%. The inventory of 63 independent silicon manganese enterprises decreased by 6,000 tons to 201,100 tons [25][31] - **Upstream**: On May 22, the price of South African manganese ore at Tianjin Port was 35 yuan/ton - degree, unchanged from the previous period; the price of Australian manganese ore was 43 yuan/ton - degree, unchanged from the previous period. As of May 19, the electricity price for silicon manganese and ferrosilicon in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia was 0.41 yuan/kWh, unchanged from the previous period. On May 16, the port inventory of imported manganese ore was 4.18 million tons, an increase of 232,000 tons compared to the previous period. The global shipment volume of South African, Australian, and Gabonese manganese ore increased by 64.41%, 82.28%, and 78.99% respectively compared to the previous week. As of May 22, the spot production cost of silicon manganese in the northern region was 5,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11 yuan/ton compared to the previous period; in the southern region, it was 6,140 yuan/ton, a decrease of 44 yuan/ton compared to the previous period. The spot production profit in the northern region was - 230 yuan/ton, a decrease of 70 yuan/ton compared to the previous period; in the southern region, it was - 550 yuan/ton, an increase of 60 yuan/ton compared to the previous period [37][45][52] - **Downstream**: As of May 23, the daily average molten iron output of 247 steel mills was 2.436 million tons, a decrease of 11,700 tons compared to the previous week and an increase of 68,000 tons compared to the same period last year. In May, Hebei Iron and Steel's silicon manganese tender price was 5,700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 250 yuan/ton compared to April [58]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The silicon-manganese market is under pressure on the macro level, and its general trend follows that of steel. With an increase in manganese ore port inventories, the cost support weakens. The silicon-manganese market is expected to operate weakly [6]. - The global economic growth slowdown, partly due to trade turmoil, will cause global commodity prices to decline by 12% in 2025. The supply side of silicon-manganese is facing production losses, and the downstream demand shows signs of a peak and decline [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Week - Ending Summary - **Macro Aspect**: The China Iron and Steel Association will remind 6 steel enterprises with negative cash - flow in the main steel business in 2024 and the first quarter and increasing crude steel production. The high US tariffs and other countries' trade barriers may affect China's steel exports by over 20 million tons in 2025 [6]. - **Overseas Aspect**: The US consumer confidence index has dropped to the lowest level since the COVID - 19 outbreak, and the World Bank predicts a 12% decline in global commodity prices in 2025 [6]. - **Supply - Demand Aspect**: The supply side is experiencing production losses, so the production enthusiasm is low. Manganese ore port inventories have increased, and downstream pig iron production may have peaked. Steel mills' procurement is cautious, and the tender quantity has decreased [6]. - **Technical Aspect**: The weekly K - line of silicon - manganese 2509 is below the 60 - day moving average, indicating a bearish trend [6]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: The silicon - manganese market should be treated as operating weakly, as it is under pressure on the macro level and the cost support has weakened [6]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: As of April 30, the silicon - manganese futures contract open interest decreased by 7,200 lots, and the monthly spread increased by 10. The manganese - silicon warehouse receipt quantity increased by 1,430, and the price difference between the manganese - silicon and ferrosilicon main contracts increased by 4 [8][12][14]. - **Spot Market**: As of April 30, the ex - factory average price of silicon - manganese in Inner Mongolia was 5,600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton. The basis was - 96 yuan/ton, an increase of 60 [23]. 3.3. Industrial Chain Situation - **Supply**: As of April 23, the national capacity utilization rate of 187 independent silicon - manganese enterprises was 41.59%, a decrease of 2.63% from the previous week. The daily average output was 26,580 tons, a decrease of 365 tons [28]. - **Inventory**: As of April 24, the national inventory of 63 independent silicon - manganese enterprises was 181,800 tons, an increase of 24,200 tons. The inventory situation varied by region [32]. - **Upstream**: As of April 29, the prices of South African and Australian manganese ores at Tianjin Port remained stable. As of April 21, the electricity prices in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia for silicon - manganese and ferrosilicon production remained unchanged. The manganese ore port inventory increased by 328,000 tons to 4.055 million tons as of April 25. The arrivals of manganese ore from different countries showed different trends [38][43]. - **Downstream**: As of April 25, the daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills was 2.4435 million tons, an increase of 42,300 tons from the previous week. The Hebei Iron and Steel Group's silicon - manganese tender price in April was 5,950 yuan/ton, a decrease of 450 yuan/ton compared to March [52].