| Millio | 国投期货 | 黑色金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2026年02月26日 | | 螺纹 | ★☆★ | 曹颖 首席分析师 | | 热着 | な女女 | F3003925 Z0012043 | | 铁矿 | ☆☆☆ | 何建辉 高级分析师 | | 焦炭 | ★☆☆ | F0242190 Z0000586 | | 焦煤 | ★☆★ | | | 鐵時 | ★☆☆ | 韩惊 高级分析师 | | 硅铁 | ★☆☆ | F03086835 Z0016553 | | | | 李啸尘 高级分析师 | | | | F3054140 Z0016022 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【钢材】 今日盘面有所回落。 节后螺纹表需环比回升，产量维持低位，库存继续累积。热卷需求环比回升，产量保持平稳，库存继续累 积，压力相对较大。由于钢厂利润欠佳，下游承接能力不足，铁水产量维持相对低位。从下游行业看，地产投资降幅继续扩 大，春节期间新房销售欠住，基建、制造业投资增速持续回落，内需整体依 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. Core Views Steel Industry - The spot demand for steel is weak, and prices have fully priced in the weak demand. Before the holiday, focus on the impact of policies on the demand expectation of steel. In December, steel prices fluctuated with the rhythm of raw material prices and maintained a sideways trend. Steel production cuts are significant, with limited downward driving force, but the weak demand expectation for the May contract restricts the upside space for prices. The upside elasticity depends on changes in the raw material supply side. Overall, it is expected to fluctuate within a range in January. The reference range for the May contract of rebar is 3050 - 3250 yuan, and for hot-rolled coils, it is 3200 - 3350 yuan [1]. Iron Ore Industry - The fundamental pattern of iron ore is shifting towards a situation of both weak supply and demand. The price ceiling is constrained by high inventories, while the downside is supported by the expectation of steel mills' restocking. In the future, iron ore will gradually transition from a state of loose supply - demand to one of weak supply - demand. During the off - season, it is necessary to focus on macro - sentiment and policy expectations. It is expected that iron ore prices will fluctuate widely in the short term [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry - For coke, the supply adjustment lags behind coking coal, and coking profits are under pressure, but the start - up rate is rising. The demand side sees an increase in iron - making water production and a rebound in steel prices at low levels. In terms of inventory, ports and steel mills are accumulating inventory, while coking plants are reducing inventory, and the overall inventory is slightly increasing at a medium level. For coking coal, the supply side has a slight increase in daily production after the new year, and imports are recovering. The demand side has a stable increase in iron - making water production, and the restocking demand is warming up. The overall inventory is also slightly increasing at a medium level. In terms of strategies, it is recommended to go long on dips and pay attention to the strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [6]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry - For ferrosilicon, the supply - demand contradiction has been alleviated, and there is support on the demand side. In the short term, focus on macro, policy expectations, and cost - side changes. It is expected to fluctuate within the range of 5500 - 6200. For ferromanganese, it is in a state of self - supply surplus but overall balance of manganese elements. Manganese ore provides price support, and there is also support from off - season demand. Follow - up attention should be paid to the reduction in ferromanganese production and the restocking expectations of steel mills for raw materials during the year - end winter storage. It is expected to fluctuate widely, and the recommended strategy is to operate within the range of 5800 - 6300 [7]. Summary by Directory Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices generally declined. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China dropped from 3320 yuan to 3290 yuan, and the May contract of rebar fell from 3187 yuan to 3144 yuan [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet and slab prices remained unchanged. The cost of Jiangsu electric - arc furnace rebar increased by 3 yuan, while the cost of Jiangsu converter rebar decreased by 17 yuan. The profit of East China hot - rolled coils decreased by 12 yuan, and the profit of North China rebar increased by 28 yuan [1]. Production - The daily average iron - making water production increased by 1.6 to 229.0, a 0.7% increase. The production of the five major steel products increased by 3.4 to 818.6, a 0.4% increase. Rebar production increased by 2.8 to 191.0, a 1.5% increase, with electric - arc furnace production increasing by 2.0 to 32.8, a 6.6% increase [1]. Inventory - The inventory of the five major steel products increased by 21.8 to 1253.9, a 1.8% increase. Rebar inventory increased by 16.1 to 438.1, a 3.8% increase, while hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 2.8 to 368.1, a 0.8% decrease [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume increased by 0.5 to 8.9, a 6.6% increase. The apparent demand for the five major steel products decreased by 44. to 796.8, a 5.3% decrease. The apparent demand for rebar decreased by 25.5 to 175.0, a 12.7% decrease [1]. Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs of various iron ore powders slightly increased, and the basis of the May contract for some powders changed slightly. The 5 - 9 spread increased by 0.5 to 21.5, a 2.4% increase, while the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 7.5 to 37.5, a 16.7% decrease [4]. Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume increased by 155.0 to 2756.4, a 6.0% increase, while the global shipping volume decreased by 463.4 to 3213.7, a 12.6% decrease. The national monthly import volume decreased by 76.9 to 11054.0, a 0.7% decrease [4]. Demand - The daily average iron - making water production of 247 steel mills increased by 2.1 to 229.5, a 0.9% increase. The 45 - port daily average ore - removal volume decreased by 1.9 to 323.3, a 0.6% decrease. The national monthly pig iron production decreased by 320.6 to 6234.3, a 4.9% decrease, and the national monthly crude steel production decreased by 212.6 to 6987.1, a 3.0% decrease [4]. Inventory Change - The 45 - port inventory increased by 304.4 to 16275.26, a 1.9% increase. The imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 43.0 to 8989.6, a 0.5% increase. The inventory available days of 64 steel mills decreased by 1.0 to 19.0, a 5.0% decrease [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Coke - Related Prices and Spreads - The prices of Shanxi and Rizhao port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke remained unchanged. The May contract of coke decreased by 17 to 1748, a 1.0% decrease. The coking profit decreased by 11 to - 54 [6]. Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads - The price of Shanxi medium - sulfur main - coking coal remained unchanged, while the price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal increased by 33 to 1213, a 2.8% increase. The May contract of coking coal increased by 6 to 1196, a 0.5% increase. The sample coal mine profit decreased by 26 to 484, a 5.14% decrease [6]. Supply - The daily average production of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.9 to 63.6, a 1.4% increase, and the daily average production of 247 steel mills increased by 0.1 to 46.9, a 0.1% increase. The raw coal production decreased by 2.7 to 853.4, a 0.3% decrease [6]. Demand - The iron - making water production of 247 steel mills increased by 2.1 to 229.5, a 0.9% increase [6]. Inventory Change - The total coke inventory increased by 0.2 to 915.7, a 0.0% increase. The coke inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 5.5 to 86.1, a 6.0% decrease, and the coke inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 1.7 to 645.7, a 0.3% increase. The coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants increased by 19.2 to 1071.7, a 1.8% increase, and the coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 4.5 to 797.7, a 0.64% decrease [6]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry Spot Prices and Spreads - The spot prices of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese generally declined. The closing price of the ferrosilicon main contract decreased by 36.0 to 5632.0, a 0.6% decrease, while the closing price of the ferromanganese main contract increased by 12.0 to 5904.0, a 0.24% increase [7]. Cost and Profit - The production costs of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia, Qinghai, and Ningxia remained unchanged, while the production cost of ferromanganese in Guangxi increased by 8.5 to 6236.3, a 0.1% increase. The production profit of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia decreased by 55.89 to - 139.7 [7]. Manganese Ore Supply - The manganese ore shipping volume increased by 32.2 to 117.4, a 37.8% increase, the arrival volume increased by 19.1 to 669, a 46.8% increase, and the ore - removal volume increased by 8.8 to 64.5, a 15.8% increase. The manganese ore port inventory decreased by 7.9 to 438.9, a 1.8% decrease [7]. Supply - The ferrosilicon production enterprise start - up rate increased by 0.1 to 29.6, a 0.34% increase, and the ferromanganese weekly production decreased by 0.3 to 19.1, a 1.4% decrease [7]. Demand - The daily average iron - making water production of 247 steel mills increased by 2.1 to 229.5, a 0.9% increase. The ferrosilicon demand (calculated by Steel Union) decreased by 0.1 to 18, a 1.9% decrease, and the ferromanganese demand (calculated by Steel Union) increased by 0.1 to 11.6, a 0.74% increase [7]. Inventory Change - The ferrosilicon inventory of 60 sample enterprises increased by 0.5 to 6.9, a 7.1% increase, and the inventory of 63 sample enterprises of ferromanganese decreased by 1.1 to 38.3, a 2.8% decrease [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Thread Steel**: ☆☆☆, indicating a more distinct long trend with a relatively appropriate current investment opportunity [1] - **Hot - rolled Coil**: ☆☆☆, indicating a more distinct long trend with a relatively appropriate current investment opportunity [1] - **Iron Ore**: ☆☆☆, indicating a more distinct long trend with a relatively appropriate current investment opportunity [1] - **Coke**: ★☆☆, representing a bearish view, with a driving force for the price to decline but poor operability on the trading floor [1] - **Coking Coal**: ★☆☆, representing a bearish view, with a driving force for the price to decline but poor operability on the trading floor [1] - **Silicon Manganese**: ★☆☆, representing a bearish view, with a driving force for the price to decline but poor operability on the trading floor [1] - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: ★☆☆, representing a bearish view, with a driving force for the price to decline but poor operability on the trading floor [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The steel market has a rebound in the trading floor today. However, the overall domestic demand remains weak, and the future trend depends on the actual implementation of policies. The iron ore market has a loose fundamental situation, with a downward pressure on prices in the medium - and long - term. The coke and coking coal markets are expected to have a weak and volatile price trend. The silicon manganese and silicon ferrosilicon markets are in a state of shock, and their bottom - support strength needs to be observed [1][2] 3. Summary of Each Commodity Steel - The trading floor rebounds today. In the off - season, the apparent demand for thread steel decreases month - on - month, production drops significantly, and inventory continues to decline. The supply and demand of hot - rolled coils both decline, inventory decreases slowly, and the pressure remains to be alleviated. Iron - water production continues to decline. The possibility of further blast furnace production cuts is high in the later stage. The domestic demand is weak, but steel exports remain high in November. Favorable news in the real - estate sector improves market sentiment, and attention should be paid to policy implementation [1] Iron Ore - The trading floor rises today. The global shipment increases month - on - month, much stronger than the same period last year. The domestic arrival volume decreases month - on - month, slightly lower than the same period last year, and port inventory continues to accumulate. Terminal demand is low in the off - season, and steel mills' profitability is poor. The iron ore fundamentals are loose, with a short - term liquidity disturbance for some ore types and a downward pressure on prices in the medium - and long - term [2] Coke - The price is in a weak and volatile state during the day. The market still expects a second - round price cut for coke. Coking profits are average, and daily production slightly increases. Coke inventory slightly decreases, and downstream buyers purchase on a small scale as needed. The carbon element supply is abundant, and the price is likely to be weak and volatile [3] Coking Coal - The price is in a weak and volatile state during the day. The production of coking coal mines slightly decreases, spot auction transactions are average, and transaction prices mainly decline. The total inventory of coking coal slightly increases, and production - end inventory slightly increases. The carbon element supply is abundant, and the price is likely to be weak and volatile [5] Silicon Manganese - The price fluctuates during the day. Driven by the rebound of the trading floor, the spot price of manganese ore rises. Comilog's quotation slightly increases month - on - month, and the reported volume decreases month - on - month. There are structural problems in the current manganese ore port inventory. Iron - water production decreases seasonally. Silicon manganese production slightly decreases, and inventory slowly accumulates. The bottom - support strength needs to be observed [6] Silicon Ferrosilicon - The price fluctuates during the day. The market's expectation of coal mine supply guarantee increases, leading to an expected decline in power costs and blue - carbon prices. Iron - water production rebounds to a high - level range. Export demand drops to above 20,000 tons, with a marginal impact. The production of magnesium metal increases month - on - month, and the secondary demand marginally increases. Supply decreases, inventory slightly decreases, and the bottom - support strength needs to be observed [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The silicon manganese market is expected to oscillate. Macro factors, such as the emphasis on promoting the orderly exit of backward production capacity by the Sixth Meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission, have improved commodity sentiment. Fundamentally, the inventory is moderately high, and the steel demand is in the off - season, with macro factors having a greater impact [6]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Week - to - Week Summary - **Macro Aspect**: From July 14th to 15th, the Central Urban Work Conference emphasized the transition of urban development to the "stock quality improvement and efficiency enhancement stage". The China National Coal Association stressed coal supply quality. Jiangsu plans to increase the proportion of short - process steelmaking output. In 2025, coal consumption is expected to decline by about 5% compared to 2020. Overseas, Trump reached an agreement with Indonesia, and the US 6 - month PPI growth was lower than expected [6]. - **Supply and Demand**: Manufacturer's operating rate rebounded from a low level, with moderately high inventory. The port inventory of imported manganese ore increased by 7.70 tons, and downstream hot metal production was at a high level. The spot profit in Inner Mongolia was - 90 yuan/ton, and in Ningxia was - 110 yuan/ton [6]. - **Technical Aspect**: The weekly K - line of the manganese - silicon main contract was below the 60 - day moving average, showing a bearish trend [6]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Treat the silicon manganese market as oscillating, as macro factors have a greater impact than fundamentals due to the off - season of steel demand and moderately high inventory [6]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: The open interest decreased by 21,000 lots, and the monthly spread decreased by 18 points. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 5,106, and the spread between the manganese - silicon and ferrosilicon September contracts increased by 10 [8][12][14]. - **Spot Market**: The Inner Mongolia silicon - manganese spot price increased by 30 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 174 yuan/ton, a decrease of 28 [22]. 3. Industry Chain Situation - **Manufacturer**: The operating rate declined slightly, but the daily output increased. The demand from the five major steel products decreased by 1.24%, while the national silicon - manganese supply increased by 0.31%. The manufacturer's inventory decreased by 4,500 tons [25][30]. - **Upstream**: The Inner Mongolia electricity fee increased by 0.01 yuan/kWh, and the Australian manganese ore price increased by 3 yuan/ton - degree. The port inventory of imported manganese ore increased by 7.70 tons. The spot production profit in the northern region was - 100 yuan/ton, and in the southern region was - 410 yuan/ton [32][36][45]. - **Downstream**: The hot metal production was at a high level, and the July silicon - manganese steel procurement price increased by 200 yuan/ton [47][49].

Report Title - Silicon Manganese Market Weekly Report: Inventory Suppresses Price Rebound, Coal Drags Down Cost Support [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - The silicon manganese market is expected to oscillate weakly. Despite manufacturers reducing production and the operating rate reaching a low level compared to the same period, high overall inventory suppresses prices. The coal price is weak on the cost side, and steel mills mainly make rigid - demand purchases on the demand side [5][6] Summary by Directory 1. Week - to - Week Summary - **Macro Aspect**: From January to April, China's cumulative crude steel production was 345.35 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.4%. The central budget investment plan for urban renewal this year will be issued by the end of June. In May, both the 5 - year and 1 - year LPRs were cut by 10 basis points. In April, China's rebar production was 17.30 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.9%, while the cumulative production from January to April was 65.385 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.9% [6] - **Overseas Aspect**: Trump announced a $100 - billion missile defense system. The yield of the 30 - year US Treasury bond soared to 5.1%, approaching a 20 - year high, indicating investors' opposition to Trump's tax - cut plan and concerns about fiscal deficits putting pressure on the stock market [6] - **Supply - Demand Aspect**: The wage negotiation between South Africa's Transnet and the UNTU union may lead to a strike, affecting manganese ore shipments, causing a short - term price increase in manganese silicon. After the short - term news impact fades, the price returns to a weak reality. Manufacturers' production cuts have led to a low operating rate, but the overall inventory is still high. The port inventory of imported manganese ore has increased by 231,000 tons, and there is an expectation of coke price cuts. The molten iron output has declined from a high level. The spot profit in Inner Mongolia is - 190 yuan/ton, and in Ningxia is - 230 yuan/ton. Steel mills' procurement is cautious, and the tender price continues to fall [6] - **Technical Aspect**: The weekly K - line of the manganese silicon main contract is below the 60 - day moving average, showing a bearish trend [6] - **Strategy Suggestion**: Operate with the view that silicon manganese will oscillate weakly [6] 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: As of May 23, the silicon manganese futures contract open interest was 618,900 lots, a decrease of 1,543 lots compared to the previous period. The spread between the 1 - 9 contracts of silicon manganese was 62, a decrease of 12 compared to the previous period. The number of manganese silicon warehouse receipts was 114,457, a decrease of 3,730 compared to the previous period. The spread between the September contracts of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon was 288, an increase of 48 compared to the previous period [12][16] - **Spot Market**: As of May 23, the average ex - factory price of silicon manganese in Inner Mongolia was 5,650 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 50 yuan/ton. The basis was - 68 yuan/ton, an increase of 190 compared to the previous period [22] 3. Industrial Chain Situation - **Industry**: As of May 22, the operating rate (capacity utilization) of 187 independent silicon manganese enterprises nationwide was 34.18%, an increase of 0.58% compared to the previous week. The daily average output was 23,600 tons, an increase of 350 tons. The weekly demand for silicon manganese in the five major steel grades was 126,590 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.76%. The weekly supply of silicon manganese nationwide was 165,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.51%. The inventory of 63 independent silicon manganese enterprises decreased by 6,000 tons to 201,100 tons [25][31] - **Upstream**: On May 22, the price of South African manganese ore at Tianjin Port was 35 yuan/ton - degree, unchanged from the previous period; the price of Australian manganese ore was 43 yuan/ton - degree, unchanged from the previous period. As of May 19, the electricity price for silicon manganese and ferrosilicon in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia was 0.41 yuan/kWh, unchanged from the previous period. On May 16, the port inventory of imported manganese ore was 4.18 million tons, an increase of 232,000 tons compared to the previous period. The global shipment volume of South African, Australian, and Gabonese manganese ore increased by 64.41%, 82.28%, and 78.99% respectively compared to the previous week. As of May 22, the spot production cost of silicon manganese in the northern region was 5,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11 yuan/ton compared to the previous period; in the southern region, it was 6,140 yuan/ton, a decrease of 44 yuan/ton compared to the previous period. The spot production profit in the northern region was - 230 yuan/ton, a decrease of 70 yuan/ton compared to the previous period; in the southern region, it was - 550 yuan/ton, an increase of 60 yuan/ton compared to the previous period [37][45][52] - **Downstream**: As of May 23, the daily average molten iron output of 247 steel mills was 2.436 million tons, a decrease of 11,700 tons compared to the previous week and an increase of 68,000 tons compared to the same period last year. In May, Hebei Iron and Steel's silicon manganese tender price was 5,700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 250 yuan/ton compared to April [58]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The silicon-manganese market is under pressure on the macro level, and its general trend follows that of steel. With an increase in manganese ore port inventories, the cost support weakens. The silicon-manganese market is expected to operate weakly [6]. - The global economic growth slowdown, partly due to trade turmoil, will cause global commodity prices to decline by 12% in 2025. The supply side of silicon-manganese is facing production losses, and the downstream demand shows signs of a peak and decline [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Week - Ending Summary - **Macro Aspect**: The China Iron and Steel Association will remind 6 steel enterprises with negative cash - flow in the main steel business in 2024 and the first quarter and increasing crude steel production. The high US tariffs and other countries' trade barriers may affect China's steel exports by over 20 million tons in 2025 [6]. - **Overseas Aspect**: The US consumer confidence index has dropped to the lowest level since the COVID - 19 outbreak, and the World Bank predicts a 12% decline in global commodity prices in 2025 [6]. - **Supply - Demand Aspect**: The supply side is experiencing production losses, so the production enthusiasm is low. Manganese ore port inventories have increased, and downstream pig iron production may have peaked. Steel mills' procurement is cautious, and the tender quantity has decreased [6]. - **Technical Aspect**: The weekly K - line of silicon - manganese 2509 is below the 60 - day moving average, indicating a bearish trend [6]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: The silicon - manganese market should be treated as operating weakly, as it is under pressure on the macro level and the cost support has weakened [6]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: As of April 30, the silicon - manganese futures contract open interest decreased by 7,200 lots, and the monthly spread increased by 10. The manganese - silicon warehouse receipt quantity increased by 1,430, and the price difference between the manganese - silicon and ferrosilicon main contracts increased by 4 [8][12][14]. - **Spot Market**: As of April 30, the ex - factory average price of silicon - manganese in Inner Mongolia was 5,600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton. The basis was - 96 yuan/ton, an increase of 60 [23]. 3.3. Industrial Chain Situation - **Supply**: As of April 23, the national capacity utilization rate of 187 independent silicon - manganese enterprises was 41.59%, a decrease of 2.63% from the previous week. The daily average output was 26,580 tons, a decrease of 365 tons [28]. - **Inventory**: As of April 24, the national inventory of 63 independent silicon - manganese enterprises was 181,800 tons, an increase of 24,200 tons. The inventory situation varied by region [32]. - **Upstream**: As of April 29, the prices of South African and Australian manganese ores at Tianjin Port remained stable. As of April 21, the electricity prices in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia for silicon - manganese and ferrosilicon production remained unchanged. The manganese ore port inventory increased by 328,000 tons to 4.055 million tons as of April 25. The arrivals of manganese ore from different countries showed different trends [38][43]. - **Downstream**: As of April 25, the daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills was 2.4435 million tons, an increase of 42,300 tons from the previous week. The Hebei Iron and Steel Group's silicon - manganese tender price in April was 5,950 yuan/ton, a decrease of 450 yuan/ton compared to March [52].