| Millio | 国投期货 | 黑色金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2026年02月26日 | | 螺纹 | ★☆★ | 曹颖 首席分析师 | | 热着 | な女女 | F3003925 Z0012043 | | 铁矿 | ☆☆☆ | 何建辉 高级分析师 | | 焦炭 | ★☆☆ | F0242190 Z0000586 | | 焦煤 | ★☆★ | | | 鐵時 | ★☆☆ | 韩惊 高级分析师 | | 硅铁 | ★☆☆ | F03086835 Z0016553 | | | | 李啸尘 高级分析师 | | | | F3054140 Z0016022 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【钢材】 今日盘面有所回落。 节后螺纹表需环比回升，产量维持低位，库存继续累积。热卷需求环比回升，产量保持平稳，库存继续累 积，压力相对较大。由于钢厂利润欠佳，下游承接能力不足，铁水产量维持相对低位。从下游行业看，地产投资降幅继续扩 大，春节期间新房销售欠住，基建、制造业投资增速持续回落，内需整体依 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. Core Views Steel Industry - The spot demand for steel is weak, and prices have fully priced in the weak demand. Before the holiday, focus on the impact of policies on the demand expectation of steel. In December, steel prices fluctuated with the rhythm of raw material prices and maintained a sideways trend. Steel production cuts are significant, with limited downward driving force, but the weak demand expectation for the May contract restricts the upside space for prices. The upside elasticity depends on changes in the raw material supply side. Overall, it is expected to fluctuate within a range in January. The reference range for the May contract of rebar is 3050 - 3250 yuan, and for hot-rolled coils, it is 3200 - 3350 yuan [1]. Iron Ore Industry - The fundamental pattern of iron ore is shifting towards a situation of both weak supply and demand. The price ceiling is constrained by high inventories, while the downside is supported by the expectation of steel mills' restocking. In the future, iron ore will gradually transition from a state of loose supply - demand to one of weak supply - demand. During the off - season, it is necessary to focus on macro - sentiment and policy expectations. It is expected that iron ore prices will fluctuate widely in the short term [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry - For coke, the supply adjustment lags behind coking coal, and coking profits are under pressure, but the start - up rate is rising. The demand side sees an increase in iron - making water production and a rebound in steel prices at low levels. In terms of inventory, ports and steel mills are accumulating inventory, while coking plants are reducing inventory, and the overall inventory is slightly increasing at a medium level. For coking coal, the supply side has a slight increase in daily production after the new year, and imports are recovering. The demand side has a stable increase in iron - making water production, and the restocking demand is warming up. The overall inventory is also slightly increasing at a medium level. In terms of strategies, it is recommended to go long on dips and pay attention to the strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [6]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry - For ferrosilicon, the supply - demand contradiction has been alleviated, and there is support on the demand side. In the short term, focus on macro, policy expectations, and cost - side changes. It is expected to fluctuate within the range of 5500 - 6200. For ferromanganese, it is in a state of self - supply surplus but overall balance of manganese elements. Manganese ore provides price support, and there is also support from off - season demand. Follow - up attention should be paid to the reduction in ferromanganese production and the restocking expectations of steel mills for raw materials during the year - end winter storage. It is expected to fluctuate widely, and the recommended strategy is to operate within the range of 5800 - 6300 [7]. Summary by Directory Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices generally declined. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China dropped from 3320 yuan to 3290 yuan, and the May contract of rebar fell from 3187 yuan to 3144 yuan [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet and slab prices remained unchanged. The cost of Jiangsu electric - arc furnace rebar increased by 3 yuan, while the cost of Jiangsu converter rebar decreased by 17 yuan. The profit of East China hot - rolled coils decreased by 12 yuan, and the profit of North China rebar increased by 28 yuan [1]. Production - The daily average iron - making water production increased by 1.6 to 229.0, a 0.7% increase. The production of the five major steel products increased by 3.4 to 818.6, a 0.4% increase. Rebar production increased by 2.8 to 191.0, a 1.5% increase, with electric - arc furnace production increasing by 2.0 to 32.8, a 6.6% increase [1]. Inventory - The inventory of the five major steel products increased by 21.8 to 1253.9, a 1.8% increase. Rebar inventory increased by 16.1 to 438.1, a 3.8% increase, while hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 2.8 to 368.1, a 0.8% decrease [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume increased by 0.5 to 8.9, a 6.6% increase. The apparent demand for the five major steel products decreased by 44. to 796.8, a 5.3% decrease. The apparent demand for rebar decreased by 25.5 to 175.0, a 12.7% decrease [1]. Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs of various iron ore powders slightly increased, and the basis of the May contract for some powders changed slightly. The 5 - 9 spread increased by 0.5 to 21.5, a 2.4% increase, while the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 7.5 to 37.5, a 16.7% decrease [4]. Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume increased by 155.0 to 2756.4, a 6.0% increase, while the global shipping volume decreased by 463.4 to 3213.7, a 12.6% decrease. The national monthly import volume decreased by 76.9 to 11054.0, a 0.7% decrease [4]. Demand - The daily average iron - making water production of 247 steel mills increased by 2.1 to 229.5, a 0.9% increase. The 45 - port daily average ore - removal volume decreased by 1.9 to 323.3, a 0.6% decrease. The national monthly pig iron production decreased by 320.6 to 6234.3, a 4.9% decrease, and the national monthly crude steel production decreased by 212.6 to 6987.1, a 3.0% decrease [4]. Inventory Change - The 45 - port inventory increased by 304.4 to 16275.26, a 1.9% increase. The imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 43.0 to 8989.6, a 0.5% increase. The inventory available days of 64 steel mills decreased by 1.0 to 19.0, a 5.0% decrease [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Coke - Related Prices and Spreads - The prices of Shanxi and Rizhao port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke remained unchanged. The May contract of coke decreased by 17 to 1748, a 1.0% decrease. The coking profit decreased by 11 to - 54 [6]. Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads - The price of Shanxi medium - sulfur main - coking coal remained unchanged, while the price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal increased by 33 to 1213, a 2.8% increase. The May contract of coking coal increased by 6 to 1196, a 0.5% increase. The sample coal mine profit decreased by 26 to 484, a 5.14% decrease [6]. Supply - The daily average production of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.9 to 63.6, a 1.4% increase, and the daily average production of 247 steel mills increased by 0.1 to 46.9, a 0.1% increase. The raw coal production decreased by 2.7 to 853.4, a 0.3% decrease [6]. Demand - The iron - making water production of 247 steel mills increased by 2.1 to 229.5, a 0.9% increase [6]. Inventory Change - The total coke inventory increased by 0.2 to 915.7, a 0.0% increase. The coke inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 5.5 to 86.1, a 6.0% decrease, and the coke inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 1.7 to 645.7, a 0.3% increase. The coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants increased by 19.2 to 1071.7, a 1.8% increase, and the coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 4.5 to 797.7, a 0.64% decrease [6]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry Spot Prices and Spreads - The spot prices of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese generally declined. The closing price of the ferrosilicon main contract decreased by 36.0 to 5632.0, a 0.6% decrease, while the closing price of the ferromanganese main contract increased by 12.0 to 5904.0, a 0.24% increase [7]. Cost and Profit - The production costs of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia, Qinghai, and Ningxia remained unchanged, while the production cost of ferromanganese in Guangxi increased by 8.5 to 6236.3, a 0.1% increase. The production profit of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia decreased by 55.89 to - 139.7 [7]. Manganese Ore Supply - The manganese ore shipping volume increased by 32.2 to 117.4, a 37.8% increase, the arrival volume increased by 19.1 to 669, a 46.8% increase, and the ore - removal volume increased by 8.8 to 64.5, a 15.8% increase. The manganese ore port inventory decreased by 7.9 to 438.9, a 1.8% decrease [7]. Supply - The ferrosilicon production enterprise start - up rate increased by 0.1 to 29.6, a 0.34% increase, and the ferromanganese weekly production decreased by 0.3 to 19.1, a 1.4% decrease [7]. Demand - The daily average iron - making water production of 247 steel mills increased by 2.1 to 229.5, a 0.9% increase. The ferrosilicon demand (calculated by Steel Union) decreased by 0.1 to 18, a 1.9% decrease, and the ferromanganese demand (calculated by Steel Union) increased by 0.1 to 11.6, a 0.74% increase [7]. Inventory Change - The ferrosilicon inventory of 60 sample enterprises increased by 0.5 to 6.9, a 7.1% increase, and the inventory of 63 sample enterprises of ferromanganese decreased by 1.1 to 38.3, a 2.8% decrease [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Thread Steel**: ☆☆☆, indicating a more distinct long trend with a relatively appropriate current investment opportunity [1] - **Hot - rolled Coil**: ☆☆☆, indicating a more distinct long trend with a relatively appropriate current investment opportunity [1] - **Iron Ore**: ☆☆☆, indicating a more distinct long trend with a relatively appropriate current investment opportunity [1] - **Coke**: ★☆☆, representing a bearish view, with a driving force for the price to decline but poor operability on the trading floor [1] - **Coking Coal**: ★☆☆, representing a bearish view, with a driving force for the price to decline but poor operability on the trading floor [1] - **Silicon Manganese**: ★☆☆, representing a bearish view, with a driving force for the price to decline but poor operability on the trading floor [1] - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: ★☆☆, representing a bearish view, with a driving force for the price to decline but poor operability on the trading floor [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The steel market has a rebound in the trading floor today. However, the overall domestic demand remains weak, and the future trend depends on the actual implementation of policies. The iron ore market has a loose fundamental situation, with a downward pressure on prices in the medium - and long - term. The coke and coking coal markets are expected to have a weak and volatile price trend. The silicon manganese and silicon ferrosilicon markets are in a state of shock, and their bottom - support strength needs to be observed [1][2] 3. Summary of Each Commodity Steel - The trading floor rebounds today. In the off - season, the apparent demand for thread steel decreases month - on - month, production drops significantly, and inventory continues to decline. The supply and demand of hot - rolled coils both decline, inventory decreases slowly, and the pressure remains to be alleviated. Iron - water production continues to decline. The possibility of further blast furnace production cuts is high in the later stage. The domestic demand is weak, but steel exports remain high in November. Favorable news in the real - estate sector improves market sentiment, and attention should be paid to policy implementation [1] Iron Ore - The trading floor rises today. The global shipment increases month - on - month, much stronger than the same period last year. The domestic arrival volume decreases month - on - month, slightly lower than the same period last year, and port inventory continues to accumulate. Terminal demand is low in the off - season, and steel mills' profitability is poor. The iron ore fundamentals are loose, with a short - term liquidity disturbance for some ore types and a downward pressure on prices in the medium - and long - term [2] Coke - The price is in a weak and volatile state during the day. The market still expects a second - round price cut for coke. Coking profits are average, and daily production slightly increases. Coke inventory slightly decreases, and downstream buyers purchase on a small scale as needed. The carbon element supply is abundant, and the price is likely to be weak and volatile [3] Coking Coal - The price is in a weak and volatile state during the day. The production of coking coal mines slightly decreases, spot auction transactions are average, and transaction prices mainly decline. The total inventory of coking coal slightly increases, and production - end inventory slightly increases. The carbon element supply is abundant, and the price is likely to be weak and volatile [5] Silicon Manganese - The price fluctuates during the day. Driven by the rebound of the trading floor, the spot price of manganese ore rises. Comilog's quotation slightly increases month - on - month, and the reported volume decreases month - on - month. There are structural problems in the current manganese ore port inventory. Iron - water production decreases seasonally. Silicon manganese production slightly decreases, and inventory slowly accumulates. The bottom - support strength needs to be observed [6] Silicon Ferrosilicon - The price fluctuates during the day. The market's expectation of coal mine supply guarantee increases, leading to an expected decline in power costs and blue - carbon prices. Iron - water production rebounds to a high - level range. Export demand drops to above 20,000 tons, with a marginal impact. The production of magnesium metal increases month - on - month, and the secondary demand marginally increases. Supply decreases, inventory slightly decreases, and the bottom - support strength needs to be observed [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment ratings for manganese - silicon and ferrosilicon in the report are generally neutral, with the inventory of both being rated as weak and the cost - profit being rated as strong [3][4] 2. Core Viewpoints Manganese - silicon - The futures market fluctuated upwards this week. Weekly production increased slightly, and demand recovered. At the end of the month, warehouse receipts were concentrated for cancellation, and attention should be paid to the subsequent recovery. The spot market quotations were few. The price in the northern market was 5600 - 5660 yuan/ton, and in the southern market, it was 5650 - 5650 yuan/ton. A large steel mill in Hebei tendered at 5820 yuan/ton. The manganese ore market was firm and rising, and the cost of alloys was under pressure, with poor profit margins [3] Ferrosilicon - The futures market fluctuated upwards this week. Market sentiment was average, with most adopting a cautious approach. The ex - factory price of 72 - grade ferrosilicon in the main production areas was 5200 - 5200 yuan/ton, and that of 75 - grade was 5700 - 5800 yuan/ton. Hebei Iron and Steel Group set the price at 5660 yuan/ton, and Shagang at 5700 yuan/ton. Production decreased slightly, while demand continued to increase slightly, and the production of magnesium metal increased slightly. The current profitability in the main production areas was poor, and the cost did not change significantly [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Manganese Ore Inventory - The total port inventory of manganese ore was 442.7 million tons, with a slight increase compared to the previous period. Tianjin Port's inventory increased to 386.4 million tons, still lower than the same period last year, and Qinzhou Port's inventory decreased to 55.8 million tons, also lower than last year [14] - In Tianjin Port, the inventory of South African ore decreased to 265.2 million tons, the inventory of Gabonese ore increased significantly to 34.8 million tons (far lower than last year), and the inventory of Australian ore increased significantly to 52.9 million tons (higher than last year) [19] Price - The price of Gabonese lumps at Tianjin Port was 39.8 yuan/ton degree, Australian lumps were 39 yuan/ton degree, and South African semi - carbonate was 34.2 yuan/ton degree. UMK announced the price of semi - carbonate in the northern market for November at 4.1 US dollars/ton degree, which was consistent with the transaction price in the southern market. Market sentiment for receiving goods was positive [22] Manganese - silicon Production - As of October 31, the weekly production of manganese - silicon increased to 20.77 million tons. The daily average production in Inner Mongolia decreased to 13,950 tons/day, that in Ningxia increased to 6,785 tons/day, that in Yunnan remained at 2,290 tons/day, and that in Guizhou decreased slightly to 2,200 tons/day [32] Demand - As of October 31, the weekly demand of Mysteel sample enterprises was 124,500 tons, and the weekly production of the five major steel products decreased to 8.7529 million tons. The proportion of rebar in the five major steel products in Mysteel sample data increased slightly, slightly lower than the historical average [40] Price - The price in the Inner Mongolia market was around 5680 yuan/ton, and in the Tianjin area, it was 5720 yuan/ton. Hebei Iron and Steel Group tendered at 5820 yuan/ton [47] Cost and Profit - The price of chemical coke was stable. The second round of coke price increase was implemented, and the profit of alloys was poor. The spot price of manganese ore was firm, and downstream procurement was cautious. Due to the delay in foreign pricing, the sentiment of reluctance to sell at low prices for semi - carbonate increased, and the transaction price increased by about 0.2 yuan/ton degree [3] Month - to - Month Spread - As of October 30, the 1 - 5 month - to - month spread of manganese - silicon was - 48 yuan/ton, continuing to fluctuate at a low level [59] Basis and Warehouse Receipts - The futures market fluctuated upwards, and the basis strengthened slightly. As of October 30, the total of manganese - silicon warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 60,600 tons. Warehouse receipts were concentrated for cancellation in October, and attention should be paid to the subsequent recovery [63] Ferrosilicon Production - As of October 31, the weekly production was 113,200 tons, a slight decrease compared to the previous period. The daily average production in Inner Mongolia was 5,160 tons, in Qinghai was 2,345 tons, in Ningxia was 4,250 tons, and in Shaanxi was 2,610 tons [68] Demand - The demand for ferrosilicon from steel mills continued to recover. The total consumption of ferrosilicon by Mysteel sample steel mills was 20,300 tons, slightly lower than the same period last year. The production of magnesium metal increased slightly [72][82] Export - As of October 30, the overseas FOB price of 75 - grade ferrosilicon was 1105 US dollars/ton, and that of 72 - grade was 1055 US dollars/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous period. In September, the import volume increased slightly, and the export volume increased significantly, higher than the same period last year [87] Raw Materials - As of October 30, the prices of small - sized blue charcoal in major regions increased slightly. The prices in Shaanxi, Ningxia, and Inner Mongolia were 750 yuan/ton, 810 yuan/ton, and 800 yuan/ton respectively. The price of iron oxide scale increased to 750 yuan/ton [99] Cost and Profit - As of October 30, the on - the - spot profit of ferrosilicon was in a loss state. The loss in Shaanxi was relatively large, and that in Qinghai was relatively small. The production profits in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Shaanxi, and Qinghai were - 378 yuan/ton, - 359 yuan/ton, - 463 yuan/ton, and - 147 yuan/ton respectively [106] Month - to - Month Spread - As of October 30, the 1 - 5 month - to - month spread of ferrosilicon was - 98 yuan/ton, weakening slightly compared to the previous period [112] Basis and Warehouse Receipts - The futures market fluctuated upwards, and the basis of ferrosilicon weakened slightly. As of October 30, the basis was - 300 yuan/ton. The total of ferrosilicon warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 37,500 tons. Attention should be paid to the recovery of warehouse receipts after the concentrated cancellation in October [116] Balance Sheet Manganese - silicon - From June 2025 to May 2026, the total supply and demand of manganese - silicon showed different trends. There were periods of surplus and shortage. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of production and consumption also changed over time [118] Ferrosilicon - From June 2025 to May 2026, the total supply and demand of ferrosilicon also showed different trends. There were periods of surplus and shortage. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of production and consumption also changed over time [119]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Report's Core View - The cost of ferrosilicon has increased due to the rise in electricity prices, providing short - term support for prices. However, the overall demand for steel is still weak. The ferrosilicon market is affected by multiple factors, and the main contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 5540 - 5750 [6] Summary by Directory 1. Week - on - Week Key Points Summary - **Macro - economic situation**: In China, Shenzhen has relaxed purchase restrictions, and in August, exports and imports increased year - on - year. The foreign exchange reserve in July increased month - on - month, and the central bank has been increasing its gold holdings for 10 consecutive months. Overseas, Russia has launched a new railway, and the US non - farm employment has been revised downward [6] - **Supply - demand situation**: After the profit improved, production quickly recovered. Most manufacturers hedged in the early stage, and inventory was moderately weak. The cost of semi - coke and electricity in Ningxia increased, strengthening cost support, but the steel demand expectation remained weak. The spot profit in Inner Mongolia was - 340 yuan/ton, and in Ningxia was - 230 yuan/ton. The tender price of HeSteel for 75B ferrosilicon in September was 5800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 230 yuan/ton from the previous round [6] - **Technical analysis**: The weekly K - line of the ferrosilicon main contract is below the 60 - day moving average, showing a bearish trend on the weekly chart [6] - **Strategy recommendation**: Due to policy information interference, the market is volatile. The main ferrosilicon contract is expected to oscillate between 5540 - 5750 [6] 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures market**: As of September 12, the position of the ferrosilicon futures contract was 421,400 lots, a decrease of 30,200 lots from the previous period. The 5 - 1 contract month spread was 108, a decrease of 2 points. The number of ferrosilicon warehouse receipts was 16,465, a decrease of 1,844. The Ningxia ferrosilicon price was 5,390 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton [8][10][14] - **Spot market**: As of September 12, the ferrosilicon basis was - 376 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 points [19] 3. Industrial Chain Situation - **Production and inventory**: The national average daily production of ferrosilicon decreased by 1.70% week - on - week, and the demand for ferrosilicon in five major steel products decreased by 1.69% week - on - week. The national inventory of ferrosilicon increased by 3,380 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.08% [25][29] - **Upstream situation**: As of September 8, the electricity price for ferrosilicon in Ningxia increased by 0.02 yuan/kWh, while that in Inner Mongolia remained flat. As of September 11, the average semi - coke price in Ningxia remained flat. As of September 12, the spot production cost in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia remained flat, and the spot production profit in Ningxia increased by 50 yuan/ton, and in Inner Mongolia increased by 90 yuan/ton [33][37] - **Downstream situation**: The daily average molten iron production of 247 steel mills increased by 117,100 tons week - on - week. From January to July 2025, the total ferrosilicon export volume was 236,000 tons, a decrease of 4.91% compared to the same period last year [41]