研究所 黑色金属研发报告 期货从业证号： F03113636 投资咨询证号： Z0018817 黑色金属日报 2026 年 01 月 12 日 螺纹热卷日报 第一部分 市场信息 | 螺纹 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货(元/吨) | | | | | | | | | 今日 | | 昨日 | 涨跌 | | 今日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | | RB05 | 3165 | 3144 | 21 | HC05-RB05 | 146 | 150 | -4 | | RB10 | 3211 | 3196 | 15 | HC10-RB10 | 119 | 122 | -3 | | RB01 | 3133 | 3089 | 44 | HC01-RB01 | 167 | 166 | J | | RB01-RB05 | -32 | -55 | 23 | RB10-RB01 | 78 | 107 | -29 | | RB05-RB10 | -46 | -52 | ნ | | | | | | 05合约螺纹盘面利润 | -180 | ...

| 钢材产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 2026年1月12日 | | | 問敏波 | Z0010559 | | | 钢材价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前自 | 张跃 | 其差 | 单位 | | 螺纹钢现货(华东) | 3290 | 3320 | -30 | 201 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华北) | 3200 | 3210 | -10 | 111 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华南) | 3280 | 3300 | -20 | 191 | | | 螺纹钢05合约 | 3144 | 3187 | -43 | 146 | | | 螺纹钢10合约 | 3196 | 3235 | -39 | 94 | | | 螺纹钢01合约 | 3086 | 3130 | -41 | 201 | | | 热卷现货(华东) | 3270 | 3290 | -20 | 15 | 元/中 | | 热卷现货 (华北) | 3190 | 3210 | -20 | -62 | | | ...

钢材产量增加，钢价震荡运行 钢材周报 20250105 周贵升 从业资格证：F3036194 投资咨询证：Z0015986 段怡雯 从业资格证：F03131526 成材：钢材产量增加，钢价震荡运行 （1）供给：钢厂复产，供应增加。全国主要钢厂螺纹钢当周产量为188.22万吨（+3.83），热轧当周产量为304.51万吨（+10.97）。 （2） 需求：螺纹需求季节性偏弱，热卷需求回升。上周螺纹表观需求为200.44万吨（-2.24），热轧表观需求310.77万吨(+3.73）。 螺纹钢总库存422.03万吨(-12.22），社会库存282.66万吨(-11.53)，钢厂库存139.37万吨(-0.69); 热轧总库存370.96万吨(-6.26),社会库存288.64万吨(-8.06)，钢厂库存82.32万吨(+1.8)。 （4）基差：截至12月31日，螺纹主力合约基差178元/吨（+6），热轧主力合约基差0元/吨（+13）。 （5）总结： 钢厂盈利率上升至38.1%，钢厂利润有所修复; 铁水产量227.43万吨，环比增加0.85万吨。 高炉开工率78.94%，环比上升0.62%，高炉产能利用率85.26%， ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 本人具有中国期货业协会 授予的期货从业资格证书，期 货投资咨询资格证书，本人承 诺以勤勉的职业态度，独立、 客观地出具本报告。本报告清 晰准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或间 接接收到任何形式的报酬。 钢材&铁矿石 | 日报 2025 年 12 月 30 日 钢材&铁矿石日报 专业研究·创造价值 市场情绪趋弱，钢矿震荡回落 核心观点 螺纹钢：主力期价震荡运行，录得 0.10%日跌幅，量缩仓增。现阶段， 螺纹钢供应回升，而需求季节性走弱，基本面表现相对偏弱，淡季钢价 继续承压，相对利好的是成本支撑，预计钢价延续震荡运行态势，关注 钢厂生产情况。 热轧卷板：主力期价偏弱震荡，录得 0.33%日跌幅，量缩仓增。目前来 看，热卷需求表现良好，带来供需格局好转，给予价格支撑，但需求韧 性存疑，且库存水平偏高，上行驱动预计不强，后续走势延续震荡运行 为主，关注钢厂生产情况。 铁矿石：主力期价高位震荡，录得 0.44%日跌幅，量仓收缩。现阶 段，得益于现货结构性矛盾和节前补库预期，铁矿石高位偏强运行，但 矿石需求走 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread Steel: ☆☆☆, indicating a short - term multi/empty trend in a relatively balanced state with poor operability on the current market [1] - Hot - Rolled Coil: ☆☆☆, suggesting a short - term multi/empty trend in a relatively balanced state with poor operability on the current market [1] - Iron Ore: ☆☆☆, meaning a short - term multi/empty trend in a relatively balanced state with poor operability on the current market [1] - Coke: ☆☆☆, showing a short - term multi/empty trend in a relatively balanced state with poor operability on the current market [1] - Coking Coal: ☆☆☆, indicating a short - term multi/empty trend in a relatively balanced state with poor operability on the current market [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★★☆, representing a clear upward trend and the market is fermenting [1] - Silicomanganese: The rating is not clearly given in the provided content Core Views - The steel market has weak market sentiment, but there is cost support below, and the overall market continues the range - bound pattern. The iron ore market is expected to be range - bound in the short term. The coke and coking coal markets are likely to be in a range - bound state after the price corrects the discount. The silicomanganese and ferrosilicon markets are recommended to try long positions at low prices [1][2][3][5][6][7] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - The steel futures market declined and then rebounded today. The apparent demand for thread steel decreased this week, while production increased slightly and inventory continued to decline. The demand for hot - rolled coil recovered, production increased slightly, and the de - stocking accelerated, but the pressure still needs to be relieved. The supply pressure is gradually easing, and the steel mill profits are marginally improving. The decline in blast furnace production has slowed down, and molten iron has stabilized. The overall domestic demand in the downstream industry is still weak, and steel exports remain high. The market sentiment is still weak, and the market continues the range - bound pattern [1] Iron Ore - The iron ore futures market was strongly range - bound today. The global shipment is strong, and it is expected to remain at a high level. The domestic arrival volume is also strong, and the port inventory has continued to increase significantly. The terminal demand in the off - season is at a low level, but molten iron has stabilized at a low level this week. The steel mill inventory is at a low level, and there is a certain restocking expectation. The fundamentals of iron ore are relatively loose, and the short - term market trend is expected to be range - bound [2] Coke - The coke price was range - bound during the day. There is still an expectation of a fourth round of price cuts, which is expected to be implemented after New Year's Day. The coking profit is average, and the daily production has slightly decreased. The coke inventory has slightly increased. The overall carbon element supply is abundant, and the downstream demand for raw materials still has resilience, but the steel mills still have a strong sentiment of pressing prices. The coke futures price is at a premium, and after the price corrects the discount, it still faces certain fundamental pressure. The price is likely to be range - bound [3] Coking Coal - The coking coal price was mainly range - bound during the day. The production of coking coal mines has slightly decreased. The overall carbon element supply is abundant, and the downstream demand for raw materials still has resilience, but the steel mills still have a strong sentiment of pressing prices. The coking coal futures price is at a discount, and after the price corrects the discount, it still faces certain fundamental pressure. The price is likely to be range - bound [5] Silicomanganese - The silicomanganese price was strongly range - bound during the day. Driven by the rebound of the futures market, the spot price of manganese ore has increased. There is a structural problem with the manganese ore port inventory. The demand for iron and steel has decreased seasonally. The weekly production and inventory of silicomanganese have slightly decreased. It is recommended to try long positions at low prices [6] Ferrosilicon - The ferrosilicon price was strongly range - bound during the day. There is an increasing expectation of coal mine supply guarantee, and there is an expectation of a decline in power costs and semi - coke prices. The demand for iron and steel has rebounded to a high - level range. The export demand has decreased, but the overall demand still has resilience. The ferrosilicon supply has decreased significantly, and the inventory has slightly decreased. It is recommended to try long positions at low prices [7]

需求淡季，钢价震荡承压 博士后工作站 | 宏观研究 | 大宗商品 周贵升 从业资格证：F3036194 投资咨询证：Z0015986 段怡雯 从业资格证：F03131526 成材：需求淡季，钢价震荡承压 （1）供给： 全国主要钢厂螺纹钢当周产量为178.78万吨（-10.53），热轧当周产量为308.71万吨（-5.6）。钢厂检修增加，钢材产 量下降。 （2） 需求： 钢材需求季节性偏弱。上周螺纹表观需求为203.09万吨（-13.89），热轧表观需求311.97万吨(-2.89）。 （3）库存： 螺纹钢维持去库，幅度放缓。螺纹钢总库存479.5万吨(-24.31），社会库存338.7万吨(-22.43)，钢厂库存140.8万吨 (-1.88); 钢材周报 20251215 热卷小幅去库，厂库累积。热轧总库存397.09万吨(-3.26),社会库存万吨(-7.37)，钢厂库存万吨(+4.11)。 （4）基差：基差走强，螺纹主力合约基差210元/吨（+77），热卷主力合约基差8元/吨（+28） （5）总结： 钢厂盈利率35.93%，环比下降0.43%; 铁水产量229.2万吨，环比减少3.1万吨。 高炉开工率7 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Thread Steel**: ☆☆☆, indicating a more distinct long trend with a relatively appropriate current investment opportunity [1] - **Hot - rolled Coil**: ☆☆☆, indicating a more distinct long trend with a relatively appropriate current investment opportunity [1] - **Iron Ore**: ☆☆☆, indicating a more distinct long trend with a relatively appropriate current investment opportunity [1] - **Coke**: ★☆☆, representing a bearish view, with a driving force for the price to decline but poor operability on the trading floor [1] - **Coking Coal**: ★☆☆, representing a bearish view, with a driving force for the price to decline but poor operability on the trading floor [1] - **Silicon Manganese**: ★☆☆, representing a bearish view, with a driving force for the price to decline but poor operability on the trading floor [1] - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: ★☆☆, representing a bearish view, with a driving force for the price to decline but poor operability on the trading floor [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The steel market has a rebound in the trading floor today. However, the overall domestic demand remains weak, and the future trend depends on the actual implementation of policies. The iron ore market has a loose fundamental situation, with a downward pressure on prices in the medium - and long - term. The coke and coking coal markets are expected to have a weak and volatile price trend. The silicon manganese and silicon ferrosilicon markets are in a state of shock, and their bottom - support strength needs to be observed [1][2] 3. Summary of Each Commodity Steel - The trading floor rebounds today. In the off - season, the apparent demand for thread steel decreases month - on - month, production drops significantly, and inventory continues to decline. The supply and demand of hot - rolled coils both decline, inventory decreases slowly, and the pressure remains to be alleviated. Iron - water production continues to decline. The possibility of further blast furnace production cuts is high in the later stage. The domestic demand is weak, but steel exports remain high in November. Favorable news in the real - estate sector improves market sentiment, and attention should be paid to policy implementation [1] Iron Ore - The trading floor rises today. The global shipment increases month - on - month, much stronger than the same period last year. The domestic arrival volume decreases month - on - month, slightly lower than the same period last year, and port inventory continues to accumulate. Terminal demand is low in the off - season, and steel mills' profitability is poor. The iron ore fundamentals are loose, with a short - term liquidity disturbance for some ore types and a downward pressure on prices in the medium - and long - term [2] Coke - The price is in a weak and volatile state during the day. The market still expects a second - round price cut for coke. Coking profits are average, and daily production slightly increases. Coke inventory slightly decreases, and downstream buyers purchase on a small scale as needed. The carbon element supply is abundant, and the price is likely to be weak and volatile [3] Coking Coal - The price is in a weak and volatile state during the day. The production of coking coal mines slightly decreases, spot auction transactions are average, and transaction prices mainly decline. The total inventory of coking coal slightly increases, and production - end inventory slightly increases. The carbon element supply is abundant, and the price is likely to be weak and volatile [5] Silicon Manganese - The price fluctuates during the day. Driven by the rebound of the trading floor, the spot price of manganese ore rises. Comilog's quotation slightly increases month - on - month, and the reported volume decreases month - on - month. There are structural problems in the current manganese ore port inventory. Iron - water production decreases seasonally. Silicon manganese production slightly decreases, and inventory slowly accumulates. The bottom - support strength needs to be observed [6] Silicon Ferrosilicon - The price fluctuates during the day. The market's expectation of coal mine supply guarantee increases, leading to an expected decline in power costs and blue - carbon prices. Iron - water production rebounds to a high - level range. Export demand drops to above 20,000 tons, with a marginal impact. The production of magnesium metal increases month - on - month, and the secondary demand marginally increases. Supply decreases, inventory slightly decreases, and the bottom - support strength needs to be observed [7]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread steel: ☆☆☆ (indicating a relatively clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Hot-rolled coil: Not rated [1] - Iron ore: ☆☆☆ (indicating a relatively clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Coke: ☆☆☆ (indicating a relatively clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Coking coal: ☆☆☆ (indicating a relatively clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Silicon manganese: ☆☆☆ (indicating a relatively clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Silicon iron: ☆☆☆ (indicating a relatively clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall steel market is in a low-level range oscillation. The demand expectation is still pessimistic, the cost side of coal and coke continues to decline, and the upward momentum of the disk is insufficient, but there is still support below [2]. - The iron ore market is expected to oscillate with a marginal loosening of fundamentals due to strong global shipments, weak steel demand in the off-season, and a deteriorating profitability of steel mills [3]. - The coke price may oscillate weakly with a general coking profit, a slight decrease in daily production, and a strong pressure from steel mills to reduce prices [4]. - The coking coal price may oscillate weakly with an increased expectation of mine supply guarantee, a slight increase in production, and a strong pressure from steel mills to reduce prices [5]. - The silicon manganese price has a downward shift in the bottom support expectation due to an increased expectation of mine supply guarantee, a slow increase in inventory, and a small increase in manganese ore inventory [6]. - The silicon iron price may have a loosening bottom support with an increased expectation of mine supply guarantee, a continuous decline in inventory, and an overall resilient demand [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Today's disk oscillated downward. In the off-season, the apparent demand for thread steel decreased month-on-month, production decreased synchronously, and inventory continued to decline. The demand for hot-rolled coils stabilized, production continued to decline, and the inventory accumulation rhythm slowed down [2]. - The molten iron production increased slightly, but the downstream carrying capacity was insufficient, the proportion of steel mill losses expanded, and the possibility of further blast furnace production cuts in the later stage was high, gradually alleviating the supply pressure [2]. - From the perspective of downstream industries, the decline in real estate investment continued to expand, the growth rates of infrastructure and manufacturing investment continued to decline, and the overall domestic demand was still weak. Steel exports declined from a high level [2]. Iron Ore - On the supply side, global shipments were strong, and the shipment volume in the peak season was expected to remain high. The domestic arrival volume declined to below the annual average level, and the port inventory declined at the beginning of the week, with certain short-term structural fluctuations [3]. - On the demand side, the steel demand in the off-season was weak, the profitability of steel mills deteriorated, the molten iron production rebounded last week but was still in the seasonal production reduction trend, and there was further room for production cuts in the future, although the production reduction speed might slow down [3]. - At the macro level, it was in a policy vacuum period, temporarily lacking expected drivers [3]. Coke - The price dropped significantly during the day. The coking profit was still average, and the daily production decreased slightly. The coke inventory decreased slightly, and downstream customers purchased on demand in small quantities, while the purchasing willingness of traders was average [4]. - Overall, the supply of carbon elements was abundant, the downstream molten iron production returned to a high level, the demand for raw materials was still resilient, but the steel profit level was average, and the pressure from steel mills to reduce prices was strong [4]. Coking Coal - The price dropped significantly during the day. The market's expectation of mine supply guarantee increased, and the price dropped accordingly. The production of coking coal mines increased slightly, the spot auction transactions were normal, and the transaction prices fluctuated [5]. - The total coking coal inventory increased slightly month-on-month, and the production-side inventory increased slightly. Safety inspections were carried out in major coal-producing areas, and the relevant impacts needed attention [5]. - Overall, the supply of carbon elements was abundant, the downstream molten iron production returned to a high level, the demand for raw materials was still resilient, but the steel profit level was average, and the pressure from steel mills to reduce prices was strong [5]. Silicon Manganese - The price dropped during the day. The market's expectation of mine supply guarantee increased, and there was an expectation of a decline in power costs and chemical coke prices [6]. - On the demand side, the molten iron production rebounded to a high level. The weekly production of silicon manganese decreased slightly, but the production was still at a relatively high level, and the silicon manganese inventory increased slowly [6]. - The forward quotation of Comilog manganese ore increased slightly month-on-month, the spot ore prices fluctuated quickly following the disk, and the manganese ore inventory increased slightly, with no prominent contradictions [6]. Silicon Iron - The price dropped during the day. The market's expectation of mine supply guarantee increased, and there was an expectation of a decline in power costs and blue carbon prices [7]. - On the demand side, the molten iron production rebounded to a high level. The export demand increased to about 40,000 tons, with a marginal impact. The production of magnesium metal increased month-on-month, and the secondary demand increased marginally, with overall resilient demand [7]. - The silicon iron supply remained at a high level, and the on-balance-sheet inventory continued to decline [7].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is not provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoint - The report's core view is that the steel price will run in a callback [3]. Group 3: Key Points from the Report - This week, the average含税 cost of steel billets at mainstream sample steel mills in Tangshan was 3,083 yuan/ton. Compared with the ex - factory price of common square billets of 2,930 yuan/ton on November 12th, the average loss per ton for steel mills was 153 yuan, a week - on - week increase of 2 yuan/ton [2] - As of November 11th, the capital arrival rate of sample construction sites was 59.76%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.06 percentage points. The capital arrival rate of non - housing construction projects was 61.06%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.16 percentage points [2] - Handan, Hebei launched a level - II emergency response for heavy pollution weather at 18:00 on November 12th, 2025, and it is expected to be lifted around November 16th [2] - Recently, the price of finished steel products has been consolidating at a low level, trading within a narrow range in recent trading days with little fluctuation. After the macro situation has calmed down, the market lacks new drivers. Currently, the downstream demand for steel is weak, and the high steel inventory further restricts steel prices. Attention should be paid to weekly fundamental changes [2] - Later, attention should be paid to macro - policies and downstream demand [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In October 2025, the steel market presented a pattern of "high production and weak demand, with the peak season not being prosperous," and the price center continued to decline. The consumption of rebar was still weak due to the drag of real estate and infrastructure, while the plate end was relatively strong driven by exports and manufacturing, but there was still inventory pressure under the background of high production. With the implementation of policies and the improvement of the macro - environment, the subsequent steel demand is expected to reach an inflection point [11][12][13] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Valuation**: In October 2025, the average profitability rate of steel mills was 48.83%, showing a significant decline. The immediate profit of rebar in the long - process (blast furnace) in East China was about - 51 yuan/ton, and the electric furnace profit was about - 60 yuan/ton, with the losses of steel mills further expanding [11] - **Supply**: In October 2025, the output of rebar was 10.3124 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 746,200 tons; the output of hot - rolled coils was 16.1584 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.9213 million tons. The average daily pig iron output was about 2.3859 million tons per week, slightly decreasing compared with the previous month but still at a relatively high level [11] - **Demand**: In October 2025, the apparent consumption of rebar was 10.722 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.3485 million tons, with the demand rebounding month - on - month; the apparent consumption of hot - rolled coils was 15.9379 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.2462 million tons, showing relatively strong demand. The recovery of the manufacturing industry drove the improvement of plate demand, but the recovery of real estate and infrastructure investment was still weak, and the demand structure was significantly differentiated [11] - **Inventory**: As of the end of October, the rebar inventory was 6.0252 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.6779 million tons; the hot - rolled coil inventory was 4.0659 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 524,200 tons. The hot - rolled coil inventory continued to run at a high level, and there was still pressure on overall inventory accumulation [11] 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - Multiple charts are provided to show the price trends, trading volumes, basis, and price differences of rebar and hot - rolled coils in different regions and contracts, as well as the price trends and price differences of cold - rolled coils, color - coated coils, and galvanized sheets [25][27][30] 3.3 Profit and Inventory - **Profit**: Multiple charts show the disk profits, gross profits per ton, and spot profits of rebar, hot - rolled coils, cold - rolled coils, etc. For example, the rebar disk profit and hot - rolled coil disk profit in the 01 contract from 2021 - 2025 are presented [81] - **Inventory**: Multiple charts show the inventory data of rebar, hot - rolled coils, steel billets, etc., including total inventory, factory inventory, and social inventory [94][97][106] 3.4 Cost End - Multiple charts show the cost - related data, such as the ratio of rebar to iron ore futures, the ratio of rebar to coke futures, daily pig iron output, billet prices, scrap steel prices, scrap steel consumption, etc. [112][115][118] 3.5 Supply End - Multiple charts show the output, output cumulative year - on - year growth rate, and capacity utilization rate of rebar and hot - rolled coils [134][136][139] 3.6 Demand and Import - Export - **Domestic demand**: Multiple charts show the apparent consumption and cumulative year - on - year growth rate of rebar and hot - rolled coils, as well as the production and export volume of household appliances such as refrigerators, washing machines, and air conditioners [146][149][152] - **Import - export**: Multiple charts show the monthly import and export volume of steel, rebar, and plates [160][161][164]