| SDIC FUTURES | 操作评级 | 2025年11月19日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 | 女女女 | 曹颖 首席分析师 | | 热轧卷板 | | F3003925 Z0012043 | | 铁矿 | ☆☆☆ | 何建辉 高级分析师 | | 焦炭 | ☆☆☆ | F0242190 Z0000586 | | 焦煤 | な女女 | | | 籃硅 | な女女 | 韩惊 高级分析师 | | 硅铁 | ☆☆☆ | F03086835 Z0016553 | | | | 李啸尘 高级分析师 | | | | F3054140 Z0016022 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【钢材】 今日盘面震荡回落。淡季螺纹表需环比下滑，产量同步回落，库存继续下降。热卷需求趋稳，产量继续回落，累库节奏放缓。 铁水产量有所回升,下游承接能力不足,钢厂亏损比例扩大,后期高炉继续减产可能性较大,供应压力逐步缓解,关注唐山等 地环保限产持续性。从下游行业看,她产投资降幅继续扩大,基建、制造业投资增速持续回落,内需整体依然偏 ...

成材：弱驱动下 钢价窄幅整理 整理 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 原材料：程 鹏 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 晨报 成材 逻辑：本周，唐山主流样本钢厂平均钢坯含税成本 3083 元/吨，与 11 月 12 日普方坯出厂价格 2930 元/吨相比，钢厂平均亏损 153 元/吨，周环 比增加 2 元/吨。据百年建筑调研，截至 11 月 11 日，样本建筑工地资金 到位率为 59.76%，周环比下降 0.06 个百分点。其中，非房建项目资金到 位率为 61.06%，周环比下降 0.16 个百分点。河北邯郸市 2025 年 11 月 12 日 18 时启动重污染天气Ⅱ级应急响应，预计 11 月 16 日左右解除。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 成材近期低位整理，近几个交易日在窄区间内盘整，波动不大。在宏 观趋于平静后，市场缺乏新的驱动。前钢材下游需 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In October 2025, the steel market presented a pattern of "high production and weak demand, with the peak season not being prosperous," and the price center continued to decline. The consumption of rebar was still weak due to the drag of real estate and infrastructure, while the plate end was relatively strong driven by exports and manufacturing, but there was still inventory pressure under the background of high production. With the implementation of policies and the improvement of the macro - environment, the subsequent steel demand is expected to reach an inflection point [11][12][13] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Valuation**: In October 2025, the average profitability rate of steel mills was 48.83%, showing a significant decline. The immediate profit of rebar in the long - process (blast furnace) in East China was about - 51 yuan/ton, and the electric furnace profit was about - 60 yuan/ton, with the losses of steel mills further expanding [11] - **Supply**: In October 2025, the output of rebar was 10.3124 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 746,200 tons; the output of hot - rolled coils was 16.1584 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.9213 million tons. The average daily pig iron output was about 2.3859 million tons per week, slightly decreasing compared with the previous month but still at a relatively high level [11] - **Demand**: In October 2025, the apparent consumption of rebar was 10.722 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.3485 million tons, with the demand rebounding month - on - month; the apparent consumption of hot - rolled coils was 15.9379 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.2462 million tons, showing relatively strong demand. The recovery of the manufacturing industry drove the improvement of plate demand, but the recovery of real estate and infrastructure investment was still weak, and the demand structure was significantly differentiated [11] - **Inventory**: As of the end of October, the rebar inventory was 6.0252 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.6779 million tons; the hot - rolled coil inventory was 4.0659 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 524,200 tons. The hot - rolled coil inventory continued to run at a high level, and there was still pressure on overall inventory accumulation [11] 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - Multiple charts are provided to show the price trends, trading volumes, basis, and price differences of rebar and hot - rolled coils in different regions and contracts, as well as the price trends and price differences of cold - rolled coils, color - coated coils, and galvanized sheets [25][27][30] 3.3 Profit and Inventory - **Profit**: Multiple charts show the disk profits, gross profits per ton, and spot profits of rebar, hot - rolled coils, cold - rolled coils, etc. For example, the rebar disk profit and hot - rolled coil disk profit in the 01 contract from 2021 - 2025 are presented [81] - **Inventory**: Multiple charts show the inventory data of rebar, hot - rolled coils, steel billets, etc., including total inventory, factory inventory, and social inventory [94][97][106] 3.4 Cost End - Multiple charts show the cost - related data, such as the ratio of rebar to iron ore futures, the ratio of rebar to coke futures, daily pig iron output, billet prices, scrap steel prices, scrap steel consumption, etc. [112][115][118] 3.5 Supply End - Multiple charts show the output, output cumulative year - on - year growth rate, and capacity utilization rate of rebar and hot - rolled coils [134][136][139] 3.6 Demand and Import - Export - **Domestic demand**: Multiple charts show the apparent consumption and cumulative year - on - year growth rate of rebar and hot - rolled coils, as well as the production and export volume of household appliances such as refrigerators, washing machines, and air conditioners [146][149][152] - **Import - export**: Multiple charts show the monthly import and export volume of steel, rebar, and plates [160][161][164]

黑色金属日报 2025 年 11 月 04 日 螺纹热卷日报 研究所 黑色金属研发报告 第一部分 市场信息 研究员：戚纯怡 期货从业证号： F03113636 投资咨询证号： Z0018817 :021-65789253 :qichunyi_qh@chinastock.c om.cn 1/ 10 研究所 黑色金属研发报告 第二部分 市场研判 【相关价格】 现货：网价上海中天螺纹 3180 元（-10），北京敬业 3170 元（-10），上海鞍钢热 卷 3310 元（-），天津河钢热卷 3230 元（-）。 【交易策略】 今日大宗商品整体下跌，钢材板块跟跌，现货成交整体一般偏弱，低价刚需拿 货，期现出货，基差小幅走扩。上周钢联数据公布，钢材复产速度加快，但河北地区 环保限产，铁水产量有所下滑；近期钢材需求继续修复，钢材去库速度加快，表需有 所增加。由于近期温度下降，钢材需求修复。煤矿端搅动大，首先是动力煤价格上涨 带动煤矿走强，其次煤矿事故频发，蒙煤通关发生阶段性搅动，乌海煤矿进行环保治 理，带动焦煤短期供应偏紧；然而板材库存较高，四季度资金释放放缓，下游回款 慢，项目数量同比下滑，而美国第二次降息落地，中美关 ...

Morning session notice 文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息和意见并不构成所述期货合约的买卖出价 和征价，投资者据此作出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关，格林大华期货有限公司不承 担因根据本报告操作而导致的损失，敬请投资者注意可能存在的交易风险。本报告版权仅为 格林大华期货研究院所有 任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版 如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为格林大华期货有限公司。 研究员： 纪晓云 从业资格： F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 联系方式：010-56711796 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 钢材: | | | | | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | 周二螺卷夜盘收涨。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、美国总统特朗普称将于明年早些时候访华。外交部发言人郭嘉昆对此回应称， | | | | | 元首外交对中美关系发挥着不可替代的战略引领作用，中美两国元首保持着密切的 | | | | | 沟通和交往。关于提到的具体问题，目前没有可以提供的信息。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Steel Industry - Steel data shows signs of bottoming out and rebounding but remains at an off - season level. August demand declined significantly, mainly due to poor rebar demand, which widened the coil - rebar spread to around 290. The market is still weak this week, with steel prices falling. There is an expectation of demand recovery in the peak seasons of September - October. Considering demand and coking coal supply, steel is expected to maintain a high - level volatile pattern. It is recommended to try long positions [1]. Iron Ore Industry - Last week, the 2601 iron ore contract showed a weak and volatile trend, with a rebound on Friday night. Fundamentally, the global iron ore shipment volume increased significantly, and the arrival volume at 45 ports also rose. The subsequent average arrival volume is expected to continue to increase. On the demand side, the steel mill's profit margin is at a relatively high level, the maintenance volume decreased slightly, and the hot metal output remained high. However, the downstream apparent demand decreased, and steel prices were weak. In terms of inventory, port inventory decreased slightly, the port clearance volume decreased, and the steel mill's equity ore inventory decreased. After the Tangshan steel mill's 15 - day production restriction starting from August 20, the hot metal output will decline, and the restocking demand will weaken. But after the short - term production restriction, the hot metal output will rebound, and the basis of the 09 contract will be repaired, which will support the futures price. It is recommended to go long at low prices and conduct a 1 - 5 long - short spread arbitrage [3]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry - Last week, the coking coal futures showed a volatile downward trend, with a rebound at the end of Friday. The spot auction price declined slightly, and the Mongolian coal price was weak. On the supply side, coal mine production increased, but sales slowed down, and some mines started to reduce prices. Imported coal prices also fell, and downstream restocking was cautious. On the demand side, coking plant production increased slightly, and the downstream blast furnace hot metal output fluctuated at a high level, but the restocking demand slowed down. Considering the production restriction of Tangshan steel mills before the parade, the hot metal output will decline in late August. The overall inventory is slightly lower at a medium level. The spot market is stable but weak. The near - month contract has support as the futures price is lower than the warehouse receipt cost, and the 9 - 1 spread has a narrowing trend. It is recommended to go long on the 2601 coking coal contract and conduct a long - coking - coal short - coke spread arbitrage [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices generally declined. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China decreased from 3300 yuan/ton to 3280 yuan/ton, and the 05 contract price of rebar decreased from 3239 yuan/ton to 3230 yuan/ton [1]. Cost and Profit - The billet price remained unchanged at 3020 yuan/ton, and the slab price was 3730 yuan/ton without change. The cost of Jiangsu electric - arc furnace rebar increased by 1 yuan/ton to 3345 yuan/ton, while the cost of Jiangsu converter rebar decreased by 5 yuan/ton to 3185 yuan/ton. The profits of rebar and hot - rolled coil in different regions generally declined [1]. Production and Inventory - The daily average hot metal output was 240.8 tons, a slight increase of 0.1 tons. The output of five major steel products increased by 6.4 tons to 878.1 tons, with the rebar output decreasing by 5.8 tons to 214.7 tons and the hot - rolled coil output increasing by 9.7 tons to 325.2 tons. The inventory of five major steel products increased by 25.1 tons to 1441.0 tons, the rebar inventory increased by 19.8 tons to 607.0 tons, and the hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 4.0 tons to 361.4 tons [1]. Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse receipt costs of various iron ore powders decreased slightly, such as the warehouse receipt cost of Carajás fines decreasing from 800.0 yuan/ton to 792.3 yuan/ton. The basis of the 01 contract for different iron ore powders increased, and the 5 - 9, 9 - 1, and 1 - 5 spreads changed to different extents [3]. Iron Ore Supply and Demand - The 45 - port arrival volume increased by 94.7 tons to 2476.6 tons, and the global shipment volume increased by 359.9 tons to 3406.6 tons. The national monthly import volume decreased by 131.5 tons to 10462.3 tons. On the demand side, the daily average hot metal output of 247 steel mills was 240.8 tons, a slight increase of 0.1 tons, the 45 - port daily average clearance volume decreased by 8.9 tons to 325.7 tons, and the national monthly pig iron and crude steel output decreased [3]. Iron Ore Inventory - The 45 - port inventory decreased by 11.2 tons to 13845.2 tons, the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 70.9 tons to 9065.5 tons, and the inventory available days of 64 steel mills decreased by 1.0 days to 20.0 days [3]. Coke and Coking Coal Prices and Spreads - The prices of Shanxi first - grade wet - quenched coke and Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke changed to different extents. The 09 and 01 contracts of coke and coking coal increased, and the basis and spreads also changed. The coking plant profit decreased, and the sample coal mine profit decreased slightly [5]. Coke and Coking Coal Supply - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants was 65.5 tons, a slight increase of 0.1 tons, and the daily average output of 247 steel mills was 240.8 tons, a slight increase of 0.1 tons. The raw coal and clean coal output of Fenwei sample coal mines increased [5]. Coke and Coking Coal Demand - The hot metal output of 247 steel mills was 240.8 tons, a slight increase of 0.1 tons, and the coke output of all - sample coking plants was 65.5 tons, a slight increase of 0.1 tons [5]. Coke and Coking Coal Inventory - The total coke inventory increased slightly, with the all - sample coking plant's coke inventory increasing, the 247 steel mills' coke inventory slightly decreasing, and the port inventory slightly decreasing. The coking coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines increased, the all - sample coking plant's coking coal inventory decreased, and the 247 steel mills' coking coal inventory increased [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Steel Industry - The steel market is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation pattern. Suggest a wait - and - see approach for now [1]. Iron Ore Industry - After previous adjustments, iron ore will follow the rebound of finished steel products. It is recommended to switch to a buy - on - dips strategy [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry - For coke, it is recommended to switch to a buy - on - dips strategy for the 2601 contract and conduct a 9 - 1 positive spread arbitrage [6]. - For coking coal, it is recommended to switch to a buy - on - dips strategy and conduct a 9 - 1 positive spread arbitrage [6]. 3. Summary by Directory Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - The prices of most steel products decreased slightly, such as the prices of hot - rolled coils in different regions and some futures contracts of rebar [1]. Cost and Profit - The costs of some steel production processes decreased, while the profits of hot - rolled coils in some regions increased slightly, and the profits of rebar decreased [1]. Production and Inventory - The daily average pig iron output and the output of five major steel products increased slightly, but the rebar output decreased. The inventory of five major steel products and rebar increased [1]. Market Outlook - The rebar data has deteriorated, with a significant decline in August demand. The hot - rolled coil supply and demand are stable. The market is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation pattern [1]. Iron Ore Industry Prices and Spreads - The basis of some iron ore varieties increased, and the spreads between different contracts changed slightly [4]. Supply and Demand - The global iron ore shipment volume increased significantly, and the arrival volume at 45 ports decreased. The demand side shows that the iron water output remains at a high level, but the downstream demand has declined [4]. Inventory - The port inventory increased slightly, the steel mill's equity ore inventory increased, and the inventory available days of some steel mills increased [4]. Market Outlook - In August, the iron water output will decline slightly. After the previous adjustment, iron ore will follow the rebound of finished steel products [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Prices and Spreads - The prices of coke and coking coal futures contracts decreased, and the spreads between different contracts changed [6]. Supply and Demand - The coking enterprise's production increased slightly, and the demand side shows that the blast furnace iron water output fluctuates at a high level. The supply of coking coal has increased, and the downstream demand has slowed down [6]. Inventory - The coke inventory decreased overall, and the coking coal inventory is at a medium level with different trends in different sectors [6]. Market Outlook - The seventh round of coke price increase is still expected. For both coke and coking coal, it is recommended to switch to a buy - on - dips strategy and conduct 9 - 1 positive spread arbitrage [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Rebar**: The main contract futures price fluctuated higher with a daily increase of 0.75%, and both trading volume and open interest decreased. The market sentiment has warmed up, but the supply - demand pattern is weak, so the steel price is still under pressure. However, the low - inventory situation limits the downside space. It is expected to continue the fluctuating trend, and attention should be paid to inventory changes [4]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: The main contract futures price showed a strong - side fluctuation, with a daily increase of 0.41%, and both trading volume and open interest decreased. Although the fundamentals have weakened under the situation of increasing supply and demand, production - restriction disturbances are fermenting, the real - world contradictions are not significant, and raw materials are relatively strong. The price is expected to continue the upward - fluctuating trend, and overseas risks should be monitored [4]. - **Iron ore**: The main contract futures price fluctuated, with a daily decline of 0.06%, trading volume increased while open interest decreased. The demand for ore has certain resilience, supporting the high - level operation of ore prices, but the supply is increasing, and the fundamentals are expected to weaken. It is predicted to continue the high - level oscillatory consolidation, and the performance of finished products should be watched [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industry Dynamics - **Automobile industry**: The Passenger Car Association slightly raised the industry's annual forecast. Passenger car retail sales are expected to reach 24.35 million units in 2025, a 6% increase year - on - year, and the forecast volume is 300,000 units more than the June forecast. From January to June, the cumulative retail sales of passenger cars and new - energy passenger cars increased by 10.8% and 33.3% respectively [6]. - **Global manufacturing**: In July, the global manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, a 0.2 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month, showing weak operation. The Asian manufacturing PMI was 50.5%, a 0.2 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month, remaining above 50% for three consecutive months and continuing to support global economic recovery [7]. - **Steel industry**: In late July 2025, key steel enterprises produced 21.8 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 1.982 million tons, a 7.4% decrease from the previous period; 20.41 million tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 185,600 tons, a 4.5% decrease; and 23 million tons of steel, with an average daily output of 209,100 tons, a 0.5% increase [8]. Spot Market - **Steel products**: The national average prices of rebar (HRB400E, 20mm) and hot - rolled coil (4.75mm) were 3,404 yuan/ton and 3,496 yuan/ton respectively. The prices of Tangshan billet (Q235) and Zhangjiagang heavy scrap (≥6mm) were 3,090 yuan/ton and 2,140 yuan/ton respectively. The spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar was 130 yuan/ton, and the spread between rebar and scrap was 1,200 yuan/ton [9]. - **Iron ore**: The price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports was 776 yuan/ton, and the price of Tangshan iron concentrate (wet basis) was 752 yuan/ton. The sea freight from Australia and Brazil was 9.65 yuan/ton and 23.64 yuan/ton respectively. The SGX swap (current month) was 101.91, and the Platts index (CFR, 62%) was 101.65 [9]. Futures Market | Variety | Closing Price | Daily Change (%) | Trading Volume | Volume Difference | Open Interest | Open Interest Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rebar | 3,234 | 0.75 | 1,202,766 | - 377,887 | 1,652,569 | - 56,263 | | Hot - rolled coil | 3,451 | 0.41 | 561,631 | - 173,827 | 1,460,175 | - 1,559 | | Iron ore | 794.5 | - 0.06 | 208,804 | 10,737 | 358,293 | - 26,208 | [13] Relevant Charts - **Steel inventory**: Charts show the weekly changes and total inventory (steel mills + social inventory) of rebar and hot - rolled coil from 2021 - 2025 [16][18][22]. - **Iron ore inventory**: Charts display the inventory of 45 ports in China, 247 steel mills, and domestic mines, including seasonal inventory and inventory changes [21][25][27]. - **Steel mill production**: Charts present the blast - furnace operating rate, capacity utilization rate, profitability ratio of 247 steel mills, the operating rate of 87 independent electric furnaces, and the profit - loss situation of 75 building - material independent electric - arc - furnace steel mills [30][32][33]. 后市研判 (Translated as Future Outlook) - **Rebar**: Supply and demand have both weakened. Production is weakly stable, with weekly output decreasing slightly by 0.90 tons. Demand has also declined, with weekly apparent demand decreasing by 13.17 tons. The price is expected to continue to fluctuate, and inventory changes should be monitored [38]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: Supply has increased with the resumption of production after maintenance, and there is room for further growth. Demand has certain resilience, but there are concerns about external demand. The price is expected to continue to rise with fluctuations, and overseas risks should be noted [39]. - **Iron ore**: The supply - demand pattern has weakened, with a decline in terminal consumption. However, the profitability of steel mills is good, so the demand has certain resilience. The supply is increasing steadily. The price is expected to continue high - level oscillatory consolidation, and the performance of finished products should be watched [40].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The market sentiment for rebar and hot - rolled coil remains strong, with both showing a strong and volatile trend [3] - The trend strength for rebar and hot - rolled coil is 1, indicating a relatively strong trend [5][6] Group 3: Summary based on Related Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking Futures Data - For RB2510 of rebar, the closing price was 3,224 yuan/ton, up 68 yuan/ton or 2.15%. The trading volume was 2,696,289 lots, the open interest was 2,095,912 lots, and the open interest increased by 20,122 lots [3] - For HC2510 of hot - rolled coil, the closing price was 3,394 yuan/ton, up 73 yuan/ton or 2.20%. The trading volume was 1,279,822 lots, the open interest was 1,600,476 lots, and the open interest increased by 4,222 lots [3] Spot Price Data - Rebar spot prices in Shanghai, Hangzhou, Beijing, and Guangzhou increased by 70 - 80 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [3] - Hot - rolled coil spot prices in Shanghai, Hangzhou, Tianjin, and Guangzhou increased by 70 - 90 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [3] - The price of Tangshan steel billet was 3,060 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton from the previous day [3] Price Difference Data - The basis of RB2510 decreased by 7 yuan/ton, and the basis of HC2510 decreased by 4 yuan/ton [3] - The spread of RB2510 - RB2601 decreased by 9 yuan/ton, and the spread of HC2510 - HC2601 decreased by 6 yuan/ton [3] - The spread of HC2510 - RB2510 increased by 7 yuan/ton, and the spread of HC2601 - RB2601 increased by 4 yuan/ton [3] - The spot spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar increased by 8 yuan/ton [3] 2. Macro and Industry News Energy Consumption Data - In June, the total social electricity consumption was 867 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%. From January to June, the cumulative total social electricity consumption was 48,418 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 3.7%. The power generation of industrial enterprises above designated size was 45,371 billion kWh, and the electricity consumption of the secondary industry was 31,485 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 2.4% [3] Industry Policy News - On July 18, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology plans to implement a new round of steady - growth work plans for ten key industries including steel, aiming to adjust the structure, optimize supply, and eliminate backward production capacity [5] Industry Production and Inventory Data - According to the weekly data of Steel Union on July 17, the output of rebar decreased by 7.6 tons, the output of hot - rolled coil decreased by 2 tons, and the total output of five major varieties decreased by 0.96 tons. The total inventory of rebar increased by 2.89 tons, the total inventory of hot - rolled coil decreased by 2.65 tons, and the total inventory of five major varieties decreased by 1.92 tons. The apparent demand of rebar decreased by 15.33 tons, the apparent demand of hot - rolled coil increased by 1.28 tons, and the apparent demand of five major varieties increased by 0.61 tons [5] - In early July 2025, key steel enterprises produced 20.97 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 2.097 million tons, a 1.5% decrease in daily output compared to the previous period; 19.31 million tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 1.931 million tons, a 1.1% decrease in daily output; and 19.88 million tons of steel, with an average daily output of 1.988 million tons, an 11.9% decrease in daily output. The steel inventory of key enterprises was 15.07 million tons, a decrease of 380,000 tons or 2.4% from the previous ten - day period [5] - In June 2025, China's crude steel output was 83.18 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.2%. The average daily output of crude steel in June was 2.773 million tons, a 0.7% decrease from the previous month. From January to June, China's crude steel output was 514.83 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.0% [5] Financial Data - At the end of June 2025, the balance of broad - money (M2) was 330.29 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.3%, 0.4 percentage points higher than the previous month and 2.1 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The balance of narrow - money (M1) was 113.95 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.6% [5] Export Data - In June 2025, China exported 9.678 million tons of steel, a decrease of 900,000 tons or 8.5% from the previous month, with an average price of 687.1 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 10.8 US dollars/ton or 1.5% from the previous month. From January to June, the cumulative steel exports were 58.147 million tons, an increase of 4.908 million tons or 9.2% year - on - year [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a decline in steel prices across various categories, with the national absolute price index for steel at 3442 yuan/ton, down 0.1% week-on-week and down 12.9% year-on-year [1] - Specific price indices for different steel products show a mixed trend: long products at 3278 yuan/ton (down 0.1% week-on-week, down 13.0% year-on-year), section steel at 3384 yuan/ton (down 0.4% week-on-week, down 14.2% year-on-year), plate steel at 3518 yuan/ton (up 0.1% week-on-week, down 13.1% year-on-year), and pipe steel at 3944 yuan/ton (down 0.1% week-on-week, down 11% year-on-year) [1] - The macroeconomic environment is characterized by proactive policies aimed at stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations, with a focus on expanding domestic demand and strengthening the domestic cycle, reflecting the resilience and vitality of the economy [1] Group 2 - In the futures market, there was an increase in prices for coking coal (up 2.78%), coke (up 2.9%), rebar (up 1.05%), and hot-rolled coil (up 1.47%), while iron ore prices remained stable [2] - On the supply side, steel companies are showing increased capacity release due to varying profitability across products, leading to a slight increase in molten iron production, although production levels for specific products vary [2] - Demand is affected by seasonal weather factors, resulting in generally poor transaction performance across various products, while cost support for steel prices remains strong due to stable scrap steel prices and steady coke prices [2]