1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The steel price is supported by costs and will fluctuate in the short - term. The steel mill profitability rate has increased but remains at a low level. The start - up rates of blast furnaces and electric furnaces have risen, and hot metal production has increased. The production of rebar has decreased, while the production of hot - rolled coils has increased. The demand for steel continues to recover, but the recovery is slow. The inventory of steel products has continued to decline, and the pressure has been relieved, but it is still at a high level. The ongoing geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has led to an increase in raw material prices, which supports the steel price, while high inventory and slow demand recovery suppress price increases [4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Steel Product Situation - **Supply**: The steel production is at a low level year - on - year. The weekly production of rebar from major steel mills nationwide is 197.87 million tons (-5.46), and the weekly production of hot - rolled coils is 305.61 million tons (+5.4) [4]. - **Demand**: The demand for steel continues to recover. The apparent demand for rebar last week was 225.37 million tons (+17.28), and the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils was 313.63 million tons (+3.12) [4]. - **Inventory**: The de - stocking amplitude of rebar has increased, and the inventory of hot - rolled coils has decreased but remains at a high level year - on - year. The total inventory of rebar is 861.91 million tons (-27.5), the social inventory is 642.75 million tons (-10.46), and the steel mill inventory is 219.16 million tons (-17.04). The total inventory of hot - rolled coils is 453.27 million tons (-8.02), the social inventory is 369.42 million tons (-6.91), and the steel mill inventory is 83.85 million tons (-1.11) [4]. - **Basis**: As of March 27, the basis of the rebar main contract is 96 yuan/ton (0), and the basis of the hot - rolled coil main contract is - 9 yuan/ton (+8) [4]. - **Summary**: The steel mill profitability rate is 43.29%, a 0.87% increase from the previous period. The hot metal production is 231.09 million tons, a 2.94 - million - ton increase from the previous period. The blast furnace start - up rate is 81.03%, a 1.44% increase from the previous period, and the blast furnace capacity utilization rate is 86.63%, a 2.61% increase from the previous period. The electric furnace start - up rate is 68.82%, a 9.55% increase from the previous period, and the electric furnace capacity utilization rate is 58.87%, a 6.13% increase from the previous period [4]. 3.2 Spot Prices As of March 27, the average price of rebar HRB400E 20MM in major cities nationwide is 3324 yuan/ton, a 5 - yuan/ton decrease from the previous period; the average price of hot - rolled coils 4.75MM nationwide is 3322 yuan/ton, a 10 - yuan/ton increase from the previous period [8]. 3.3 Raw Materials The cost side still has support. The price of quasi - first - class metallurgical coke is 1500 yuan/ton (+30), the price of main coking coal in Lvliang is 1530 yuan/ton (+62), and the price of 61.5% PB powder at Qingdao Port is 786 yuan/ton (-12) [15]. 3.4 Other Market Indicators - **Blast Furnace and Electric Furnace Start - up Rates**: The start - up rates of blast furnaces and electric furnaces continue to rise, and hot metal production increases [18]. - **Steel Mill Profitability Rate**: The steel mill profitability rate has increased [25]. - **Tangshan Blast Furnace Start - up Rate**: As of March 27, the Tangshan blast furnace start - up rate is 95.15%, a 1.71% increase from the previous period [31]. - **Production Volume**: The rebar production has decreased, with a 5.46 - million - ton decrease in the weekly production. The long - process production has decreased by 4.01 million tons, and the short - process production has decreased by 1.45 million tons. The hot - rolled coil production has increased by 5.4 million tons [33][36][37]. - **Apparent Demand**: The apparent demand has increased but is still at a low level year - on - year [40]. - **Trading Volume**: The weekly average trading volume of rebar is 9.4 million tons, running at a low level. The weekly average trading volume of hot - rolled coils is 4.717 million tons, and the downstream cold - rolled production is 89.2 million tons, a 0.35 - million - ton increase from the previous period, at a high level year - on - year [45][49]. - **Inventory**: As of March 27, the Tangshan billet inventory is 72.75 million tons, a 2.25 - million - ton decrease from the previous period, at a high level. The inventory of major steel products is 1387.29 million tons, a 23.33 - million - ton decrease from the previous period [52]. - **Exports**: From January to February, steel exports were 15.59 billion tons, an 8% year - on - year decrease; hot - rolled coil exports were 2.2488 billion tons, a 35% year - on - year decrease [63]. - **Automobile Production and Sales**: In February, automobile production was 1.672 million vehicles, a 777,900 - vehicle decrease from the previous period; automobile sales were 1.805 million tons, a 541,500 - ton decrease from the previous period. New - energy vehicle production was 694,000 vehicles, a 347,000 - vehicle decrease from the previous period; new - energy vehicle sales were 765,000 tons, an 180,000 - ton decrease from the previous period [67]. - **Real Estate Data**: From January to February, real estate investment decreased by 11.1% year - on - year, the cumulative year - on - year decrease in the newly started housing area was 23.1%, the cumulative year - on - year decrease in the completed housing area was 27.9%, the year - on - year decrease in the commercial housing sales area was 13.5%, the year - on - year decrease in the commercial housing sales volume was 20.2%, and the year - on - year decrease in the available funds was 16.5% [70].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The main contract price of rebar was weakly volatile, with a daily decline of 0.51%, and the trading volume and open interest decreased. In the current situation of increasing supply and demand, the fundamentals of rebar have changed, and the inventory inflection point has appeared. However, the improvement of demand is limited, and the upward driving force of steel prices is not strong. The relatively positive factor is the cost support brought by the strong raw materials. It is expected that steel prices will maintain a range - bound oscillation, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [5]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil was volatile, with a daily decline of 0.36%, and the trading volume and open interest decreased. Currently, thanks to the strong demand resilience, the supply - demand pattern of hot - rolled coil has improved. Coupled with the cost support brought by the strong raw materials, the price of hot - rolled coil has rebounded from the low level. However, the supply is increasing, and there are concerns about demand. The subsequent trend of the high - inventory situation should be viewed with caution, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [5]. - The main contract price of iron ore was volatile at a high level, with a daily decline of 0.55%, the trading volume increased, and the open interest decreased. At present, the previous positive factors have supported the high - level operation of ore prices. However, under the situation of stable supply and weak demand, the fundamentals of the ore market are weakly stable, and the valuation is relatively high, so the upward driving force is not strong. The subsequent trend will continue to be volatile at a high level, and attention should be paid to the performance of steel [5]. Summary by Directory Industry Dynamics - On March 19, Shenyang optimized and adjusted 5 housing provident fund loan and withdrawal policies, including raising the maximum loan amount, expanding the scope of "commercial - to - provident fund" loans, canceling the limit on the number of provident fund loans, supporting the purchase of parking spaces, and increasing the amount of rental withdrawal [7]. - In February 2026, the production and sales of new - energy vehicles were 694,000 and 765,000 respectively, with year - on - year decreases of 21.8% and 14.2%. From January to February 2026, the production and sales of new - energy vehicles were 1.735 million and 1.71 million respectively, with year - on - year decreases of 8.8% and 6.9%. In February 2026, the domestic sales of new - energy vehicles were 483,000, with a month - on - month decrease of 24.9% and a year - on - year decrease of 36.4%. From January to February 2026, the domestic sales of new - energy vehicles were 1.126 million, with a year - on - year decrease of 27.5% [8]. - From January to February 2026, China's crude steel production was 160.335 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.6%. Hebei ranked first with a production of 34.2705 million tons, Jiangsu ranked second with 20.0901 million tons, and Shandong ranked third with 11.062 million tons [9]. Spot Market - Rebar: The spot prices in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3,210, 3,190, and 3,334 respectively, with changes of - 20, - 10, and - 9 [10]. - Hot - rolled coil: The spot prices in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3,280, 3,220, and 3,313 respectively, with changes of - 10, 0, and - 4 [10]. - Tangshan billet: The spot price was 2,980, with no change [10]. - Zhangjiagang heavy scrap: The spot price was 2,200, with no change [10]. - Main variety spreads: The hot - rolled coil - rebar spread was 70, and the rebar - scrap spread was 1,010, with changes of 10 and - 20 respectively [10]. - PB powder: The price at Shandong ports was 785, with a change of - 3 [10]. - Tangshan iron concentrate powder: The price (wet basis) was 772, with no change [10]. - Freight rates: The Australian and Brazilian freight rates were 12.63 and 29.70 respectively, with changes of - 0.70 and 0.01 [10]. - SGX swap: The price (current month) was 106.30, with a change of - 0.80 [10]. - Iron ore price index (61% FE, CFR): The price was 108.50, with a change of - 1.50 [10]. Futures Market - Rebar: The closing price of the active contract was 3,135, with a decline of 0.51%. The highest price was 3,145, the lowest price was 3,122, the trading volume was 648,797, the volume difference was - 211,703, the open interest was 1,449,246, and the open - interest difference was - 65,665 [14]. - Hot - rolled coil: The closing price of the active contract was 3,302, with a decline of 0.36%. The highest price was 3,315, the lowest price was 3,295, the trading volume was 287,920, the volume difference was - 70,431, the open interest was 1,143,177, and the open - interest difference was - 28,781 [14]. - Iron ore: The closing price of the active contract was 807.5, with a decline of 0.55%. The highest price was 812.5, the lowest price was 803.0, the trading volume was 193,106, the volume difference was 3,905, the open interest was 446,896, and the open - interest difference was - 8,625 [14]. Related Charts - Steel inventory: There are charts showing the weekly changes and total inventory (steel mills + social inventory) of rebar and hot - rolled coil [16][17][19]. - Iron ore inventory: There are charts showing the inventory of 45 ports in China, the inventory of 247 steel mills, and the inventory of domestic mine iron concentrate powder [25][26][29]. - Steel mill production: There are charts showing the blast furnace operating rate, capacity utilization rate, and profit - making proportion of 247 sample steel mills, as well as the operating rate and profit situation of 94 independent electric - arc furnace steel mills [33][35][40]. 后市研判 - Rebar: Supply and demand are both increasing. The weekly output of rebar increased by 80,300 tons, and the inventory is starting to decline but is still higher than last year. The demand has improved seasonally, but the high - frequency transactions are weak. The upward driving force of steel prices is not strong, and it is expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation, focusing on demand performance [41]. - Hot - rolled coil: Supply and demand have both increased. The output of hot - rolled coil increased by 49,500 tons week - on - week, and the inventory is still high. The demand is resilient, but there are concerns. The price has rebounded from the low level, but the subsequent trend of the high - inventory situation should be viewed with caution, focusing on demand performance [42]. - Iron ore: The supply - demand pattern has changed little. The terminal consumption of ore has declined, and the arrival of iron ore at domestic ports has decreased again, but the overseas shipments have increased. The previous positive factors have supported the high - level operation of ore prices, but the upward driving force is not strong, and it will continue to be volatile at a high level, focusing on the performance of steel [42].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The inventory of steel products is at a high level, and steel prices are fluctuating. The supply and demand of rebar and hot-rolled coils are in different situations. Overall, the market is affected by factors such as production restrictions, demand recovery, and cost support, and is expected to fluctuate in the short term [1][4][5]. Summary by Directory Supply - Rebar production has increased, with long-process production decreasing due to blast furnace restrictions and short-process production increasing as electric furnaces resume production. The weekly output of rebar from major steel mills in the country is 173,310 tons (+8,210 tons). Hot-rolled coil production has decreased significantly due to environmental protection restrictions, with the weekly output at 301,110 tons (-8,500 tons) [5][7]. - The blast furnace operating rate is 77.71%, a week-on-week decrease of 2.51%, and the blast furnace capacity utilization rate is 85.32%, a week-on-week decrease of 2.13%. The electric furnace operating rate is 24.71%, a week-on-week increase of 14.57%, and the electric furnace capacity utilization rate is 20.71%, a week-on-week increase of 13.36% [7]. - Due to blast furnace restrictions in the North China region, as of March 6, the blast furnace operating rate in Tangshan is 84.11%, a week-on-week decrease of 12.7% [29]. Demand - Steel demand is recovering but remains at a low level. The apparent demand for rebar last week was 98,230 tons (+64,680 tons), and the apparent demand for hot-rolled coils was 281,570 tons (+13,200 tons) [7]. - As of March 6, the weekly average trading volume of rebar is 56,500 tons, and the trading volume is at a low level. The weekly average trading volume of hot-rolled coils is 40,300 tons. As of February 27, the downstream cold-rolled production is 885,100 tons, a week-on-week increase of 7,600 tons, and it is at a high level year-on-year [44][48]. Inventory - Rebar and hot-rolled coil inventories continue to accumulate. The total rebar inventory is 875,680 tons (+75,080 tons), the social inventory is 637,750 tons (+69,990 tons), and the steel mill inventory is 237,930 tons (+5,090 tons). The total hot-rolled coil inventory is 471,690 tons (+19,540 tons), the social inventory is 381,610 tons (+24,240 tons), and the steel mill inventory is 90,080 tons (-4,700 tons) [7]. - As of March 6, the billet inventory in Tangshan is 597,000 tons, a week-on-week increase of 67,000 tons. The inventory of major steel products is 1,402,740 tons, a week-on-week increase of 106,690 tons [51]. Price - As of March 6, the average price of rebar in major cities across the country is 3,300 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 4 yuan/ton; the average price of hot-rolled coils across the country is 3,265 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 4 yuan/ton [10]. - As of March 6, the basis of the rebar main contract is 102 yuan/ton (-41 yuan), and the basis of the hot-rolled coil main contract is 0 yuan/ton (-15 yuan) [7]. Raw Materials - The price of quasi-primary metallurgical coke is 1,470 yuan/ton, with no week-on-week change; the price of main coking coal in Lvliang is 1,483 yuan/ton, with no week-on-week change; the price of 61.5% PB powder at Qingdao Port is 764 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 15 yuan [17]. Other Market Data - According to customs data, in December, steel exports were 1.13 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 132,000 tons; from January to December, the cumulative steel export volume was 119 million tons, a cumulative year-on-year increase of 7.5%. In November, hot-rolled coil exports were 180,480 tons [61]. - According to Steel Union data, in January, automobile production was 2.45 million vehicles, a month-on-month decrease of 846,000 vehicles; automobile sales were 2.346 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 926,200 tons. In January, new energy vehicle production was 1.041 million vehicles, a month-on-month decrease of 677,000 vehicles; new energy vehicle sales were 945,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 765,000 tons [65]. - From January to December, national real estate development investment decreased by 17.2% year-on-year, with a decline of 1.3%. Specifically, from January to December, the cumulative new construction area of housing was 597.7 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 20.4%; the completed housing area was 603.48 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 18.1%. From January to December, the sales area of newly built commercial housing was 881.01 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 8.7%. The sales volume of newly built commercial housing decreased by 12.6% year-on-year, with a decline of 1.5%. From January to December, the cumulative funds in place for development enterprises were 93.117 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.4% [68][69].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The steel market is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term, and attention should be paid to demand recovery. This week, the rebar market showed a "relatively stable" operation characteristic. The macro environment is relatively warm, with overseas tariff policy adjustments, geopolitical situations, and the relaxation of domestic real - estate policies supporting market sentiment, resulting in relatively strong futures prices. However, the industrial reality is under some pressure. After the festival, as electric - arc furnaces gradually resume production, rebar production is expected to rise from a low level. Demand recovery after the festival may not occur until after the Lantern Festival, and there will still be short - term pressure from high inventories, with limited fundamental support [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review and Outlook - The rebar market was "relatively stable" this week. Macro - level factors supported market sentiment, while the industrial reality was under pressure. After the festival, rebar production may rise as electric - arc furnaces resume, but demand recovery may be delayed until after the Lantern Festival, and short - term high inventory pressure remains [1] Fundamental Data Weekly Changes - The average daily hot - metal output of steel mills was 2.3328 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 27,900 tons or 1.21%. Rebar mill inventory was 2.3284 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 117,700 tons or 5.32%. Rebar social inventory was 5.6776 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 727,900 tons or 14.71%. Hot - rolled coil mill inventory was 947,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 14,000 tons or 1.50%. Hot - rolled coil social inventory was 3.5737 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 169,000 tons or 4.96% [3] Futures Market Review - The content mainly includes charts such as the 5 - day intraday chart of rebar and hot - rolled coil main contracts, rebar 05 - 10 spread, hot - rolled coil 05 - 10 spread, on - the - plate coil - rebar spread, and speculation degree (trading volume/position) [4][5][8] Spot Market Review - The content includes charts showing the rebar price in East China (Shanghai), the hot - rolled 4.75 spot price (Shanghai), rebar basis, and hot - rolled coil basis [15][17] Fundamental Data - The content includes charts of the average daily hot - metal output of 247 steel mills, rebar blast - furnace profit, rebar supply - demand trend chart, hot - rolled coil supply - demand trend chart, rebar mill inventory seasonal analysis, rebar social inventory seasonal analysis, hot - rolled coil mill inventory seasonal analysis, and hot - rolled coil social inventory seasonal analysis [20][22][26]

Report Investment Ratings - **Thread Steel**: ★☆★ [1] - **Hot Rolled Coil**: ★★★ [1] - **Iron Ore**: ☆☆☆ [1] - **Coke**: ★☆☆ [1] - **Coking Coal**: ★☆★ [1] - **Ferrosilicon**: ★☆☆ [1] - **Silicomanganese**: ★☆☆ [1] Core Viewpoints - The market confidence is insufficient, and the rebound of the steel plate is facing setbacks with repeated rhythms. Attention should be paid to market trends and relevant policy changes. The supply of iron ore is in excess, and although the demand has marginal improvement expectations, the supply pressure is greater. The carbon element supply is abundant, and the downstream iron - water is at a low level in the off - season. The market has strong expectations for next month's meeting policies, and the prices of coke, coking coal, silicomanganese, and ferrosilicon may have upward drivers [2][3][4] Summary by Category Steel - The steel plate fell today. After the festival, the apparent demand for thread steel increased month - on - month, with low production and continued inventory accumulation. The demand for hot - rolled coils increased month - on - month, with stable production and continued inventory accumulation. Due to poor steel mill profits and insufficient downstream carrying capacity, the iron - water production remained at a relatively low level. The real estate investment decline continued to expand, and the new - house sales during the Spring Festival were poor. The investment growth rates of infrastructure and manufacturing continued to decline, and the overall domestic demand was still weak, while steel exports remained high [2] Iron Ore - The iron ore plate fluctuated today. The global shipment increased significantly month - on - month, and the domestic port inventory was at a historical high. The expectation of iron ore supply surplus was still strong. After the festival, the terminal demand recovered, and the iron - water production continued to resume, but there were certain production - restriction disturbances around the Two Sessions. Overall, the demand for iron ore had marginal improvement expectations, but the supply surplus pressure was relatively greater, and the recent plate price was suppressed [3] Coke - The coke price fell during the day. The coking profit was average, and the daily production decreased slightly. The coke inventory increased slightly, and the purchasing willingness of traders was average. Overall, the carbon element supply was abundant, the downstream iron - water was at a low level in the off - season, the steel profit level was average, and the price - pressing sentiment for raw materials was still strong. The coke plate had a premium, and the coking coal plate had a premium over Mongolian coal. The market had certain expectations for relevant policies, and the price might have upward drivers [4] Coking Coal - The coking coal price fell during the day. The customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal was 1,477 vehicles yesterday. The production of coking coal mines increased slightly. The spot auction transactions were inversely proportional to the plate fluctuations. Affected by the plate price fluctuations, the transaction prices mainly decreased slightly, and the terminal inventory increased significantly. The total coking coal inventory increased significantly, and the production - end inventory increased slightly. The winter - storage demand was coming to an end. Overall, the carbon element supply was abundant, the downstream iron - water was at a low level in the off - season, the steel profit level was average, and the price - pressing sentiment for raw materials was still strong. The coke plate had a premium, and the coking coal plate had a premium over Mongolian coal. The market had strong expectations for next month's meeting policies, and the price might have upward drivers [6] Silicomanganese - The silicomanganese price increased significantly during the day. The South African electricity price still had an upward - adjustment driver in the 206 fiscal year, which had little impact on manganese ore mining. Attention should be paid to whether the export tax rate would be adjusted. The spot manganese ore transaction price increased slightly, and the plate entered a non - arbitrage space with relatively limited downward space. The manganese ore port inventory might start to slowly increase, and the mine - end shipment increased month - on - month, but the mine cost had increased compared with previous years, and the price - concession space might be relatively limited. The iron - water production at the demand end remained at a seasonal low level. The weekly production of silicomanganese increased slightly, and there was hardly any significant downward - driving force. The silicomanganese inventory increased slightly. The market had strong expectations for next month's meeting policies, and it was likely to fluctuate strongly [7] Ferrosilicon - The ferrosilicon price increased slightly during the day. The power cost in some production areas decreased, the semi - coke price remained flat, and the main production areas were still mainly in losses, but the Inner Mongolia production area turned profitable. The iron - water production at the demand end remained at a low level in the off - season. The export demand remained above 30,000 tons, with little marginal impact. The metal magnesium production increased month - on - month, and the secondary demand increased marginally. The overall demand still had resilience. The ferrosilicon supply changed little, and the inventory decreased slightly. The market had strong expectations for next month's meeting policies, and it was likely to fluctuate strongly [8]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The main contract price of rebar fluctuated weakly, with a daily decline of 0.51%, showing a pattern of decreasing volume and increasing positions. Currently, rebar supply remains stable at a high level while demand is weak, and the fundamental situation continues its seasonal weakness. During the off - season, rebar prices are under pressure, but cost support is a positive factor. It is expected to continue to fluctuate at a low level, and attention should be paid to inventory changes [5]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil fluctuated, with a daily decline of 0.34%, and both volume and positions decreased. At present, both supply and demand of hot - rolled coil are at a high level, and the fundamental situation is weak. If demand weakens, industrial contradictions are likely to intensify. It is expected that steel prices will be under pressure and fluctuate weakly, and attention should be paid to demand performance [5]. - The main contract price of iron ore trended weakly, with a daily decline of 1.14%, showing a pattern of increasing volume and decreasing positions. Currently, overseas supply has stabilized and inventory is high, resulting in a large supply pressure for iron ore. Meanwhile, iron ore demand is weak, and the fundamental situation of the iron ore market is not good. It is expected that iron ore prices will remain under pressure and trend weakly, and attention should be paid to steel mills' restocking [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - In January 2026, the China Construction Machinery Market Index (CMI) was 109.99, an increase of 5.19% year - on - year and a decrease of 3.16% month - on - month. The index value in January was higher than the contraction value, indicating short - term stable operation of the domestic market. The year - on - year growth rate of the CMI index in January increased slightly by 0.18 percentage points, while the month - on - month growth rate decreased by 6.01 percentage points, showing an evolution trend of year - on - year improvement and seasonal month - on - month decline [7]. - According to data from the China Index Academy on February 1, in January, the average price of new residential buildings in 100 Chinese cities was 17,114 yuan per square meter, a month - on - month increase of 0.18% and a year - on - year increase of 2.52%. The average price of second - hand residential buildings was 12,905 yuan per square meter, a month - on - month decrease of 0.85% and a year - on - year decrease of 8.67%. The new housing prices in 100 cities showed a structural month - on - month increase, but the overall market performance was dull, and the month - on - month increase rate narrowed compared with the previous month. The month - on - month decline of second - hand housing prices in 100 cities also narrowed [8]. - According to incomplete statistics from Mysteel, in January 2026, the China Trade Remedy Information Network successively announced 15 anti - dumping and countervailing investigations or rulings on Chinese steel products by foreign countries. The涉案 products included carbon steel galvanized wire mesh, cold - rolled steel sheets, hot - rolled coils, stainless - steel sinks, and silicon - manganese steel wires [9]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Rebar**: The spot price in Shanghai was 3,200 yuan, unchanged; in Tianjin, it was 3,160 yuan, a decrease of 10 yuan; the national average price was 3,311 yuan, an increase of 1 yuan [10]. - **Hot - rolled Coil**: The spot price in Shanghai was 3,260 yuan, unchanged; in Tianjin, it was 3,160 yuan; the national average price was 3,291 yuan, a decrease of 1 yuan [10]. - **Tangshan Steel Billet**: The price was 2,920 yuan, unchanged [10]. - **Zhangjiagang Heavy Scrap**: The price was 2,160 yuan, an increase of 30 yuan [10]. - **Main Product Spreads**: The hot - rolled coil - rebar spread was 60 yuan, unchanged; the rebar - scrap spread was 1,040 yuan, a decrease of 30 yuan [10]. - **Iron Ore - related**: The price of PB fines at Shandong ports was 773 yuan, a decrease of 7 yuan; the price of Tangshan iron ore concentrate (wet - based) was 773 yuan, unchanged. The ocean freight from Australia was 9.70 yuan (previous day's data), an increase of 0.01 yuan; from Brazil, it was 25.83 yuan (previous day's data), an increase of 0.82 yuan. The SGX swap (current month) was 102.65 yuan (previous day's data), a decrease of 2.97 yuan. The iron ore price index (61% FE, CFR) was 102.40 (previous day's data), a decrease of 0.80 [10]. 3.3 Futures Market - **Rebar**: The closing price of the active contract was 3,099 yuan, a decrease of 0.51%. The highest price was 3,118 yuan, the lowest was 3,095 yuan. The trading volume was 685,806 lots, a decrease of 448,598 lots compared with the previous day. The open interest was 1,805,126 lots, an increase of 21,029 lots [14]. - **Hot - rolled Coil**: The closing price of the active contract was 3,265 yuan, a decrease of 0.34%. The highest price was 3,283 yuan, the lowest was 3,257 yuan. The trading volume was 335,114 lots, a decrease of 194,382 lots compared with the previous day. The open interest was 1,477,230 lots, a decrease of 21,563 lots [14]. - **Iron Ore**: The closing price of the active contract was 777.5 yuan, a decrease of 1.14%. The highest price was 797.0 yuan, the lowest was 774.5 yuan. The trading volume was 357,056 lots, an increase of 52,492 lots compared with the previous day. The open interest was 518,849 lots, a decrease of 1,835 lots [14]. 3.4 Relevant Charts - **Steel Inventory**: The report provides multiple charts showing the inventory changes of rebar and hot - rolled coil over time, including weekly changes, total inventory (steel mills + social inventory), etc. [16][17][22] - **Iron Ore Inventory**: Charts show the inventory of 45 ports in China, the inventory of 247 steel mills, and domestic mine iron ore concentrate inventory, as well as their seasonal changes and month - on - month changes [24][25][28] - **Steel Mill Production**: Charts display the blast - furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate of 247 sample steel mills, the operating rate of 94 independent electric - arc furnace steel mills, the proportion of profitable steel mills among 247 steel mills, and the profit situation of 94 independent electric - arc furnace steel mills [32][34][36] 3.5后市研判 (Outlook) - **Rebar**: The supply - demand pattern continues to weaken, and inventory growth has expanded. The production of construction steel mills has stabilized, with the weekly rebar output increasing slightly by 0.28 tons month - on - month, and supply remains stable at a high level. However, considering that short - process steel mills will gradually stop production approaching the Spring Festival, supply is expected to decrease. Meanwhile, rebar demand continues to weaken, with the weekly apparent demand and high - frequency transactions decreasing month - on - month and remaining at a low level in the same lunar period in recent years. The off - season weak - demand pattern remains unchanged, dragging down steel prices. It is expected to continue to fluctuate at a low level, and attention should be paid to inventory changes [40]. - **Hot - rolled Coil**: There are changes in both supply and demand, and inventory destocking has narrowed. The production of plate steel mills has stabilized, with the weekly hot - rolled coil output increasing by 3.80 tons month - on - month, rising again and remaining at a relatively high level, and the inventory level is high, so the supply pressure remains. The demand for hot - rolled coil shows some resilience, with the weekly apparent demand increasing slightly month - on - month, mainly due to the high output of downstream cold - rolled products. However, attention should be paid to the accumulation of contradictions. The external demand for exports is average, and the resilience of demand needs to be tracked. Currently, both supply and demand of hot - rolled coil are at a high level, and the fundamental situation is weak. If demand weakens, industrial contradictions are likely to intensify. It is expected that steel prices will be under pressure and fluctuate weakly, and attention should be paid to demand performance [40]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply - demand pattern has changed little, and inventory continues to rise. The production of steel mills is weakly stable, and the terminal consumption of iron ore is stable. The average daily hot - metal output and imported - ore daily consumption of sample steel mills decreased slightly month - on - month last week, and the contradictions in the off - season steel market are accumulating. Steel mills mainly conduct normal restocking before the festival, with limited positive effects. It is expected that iron ore demand will continue to be weak. Meanwhile, the arrival of iron ore at domestic ports has rebounded from a low level, and the shipments of overseas miners have continued to increase, so overseas iron ore supply has stabilized, while domestic iron ore supply is stable. Coupled with high inventory, the supply pressure of iron ore remains. It is expected that iron ore prices will remain under pressure and trend weakly, and attention should be paid to steel mills' restocking [41].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel futures market maintained a volatile and slightly stronger trend today, with overall spot trading being generally favorable, mainly due to futures-spot purchases, while downstream purchases were poor. Prices generally rose following the futures market, and the basis narrowed. - This week's data from Steel Union showed that the production of the five major steel products accelerated, with hot-rolled coils increasing production faster than rebar. The total steel inventory accelerated the process of inventory accumulation, with rebar accumulating inventory while hot-rolled coils were still reducing inventory. Overall, the social inventory pressure was greater than the factory inventory. - Recently, as the weather has turned cold, downstream construction sites have gradually shut down, leading to a decline in construction steel demand. Although steel exports have recently declined, there is still a demand for inventory replenishment in the manufacturing industry before the Spring Festival, and the demand for hot-rolled coils continues to grow, performing better than the same period last year. - Coal mines increased production in January, and Mongolian coal imports increased rapidly, but steel mills continued to replenish their inventories. It is expected that coal mines may gradually take holidays in February. The structural shortage of PB powder has not been resolved, and the first quarter is also the traditional off-season for iron ore shipments. Steel mills have a rigid demand for inventory replenishment, providing cost support. - Recently, molten iron production has continued to recover, supporting raw material costs. However, the marginal decline in winter demand and continuous inventory accumulation have also limited the further upward space for steel prices. It is expected that steel prices will continue to fluctuate following macro - sentiment before the Spring Festival. [6] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Information 3.1.1 Rebar - **Futures**: RB05 was at 3157 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan from yesterday; RB10 was at 3203 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan; RB01 was at 3228 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan. The 05 - contract rebar's profit on the futures market was - 128 yuan, down 9 yuan; the 10 - contract was - 81 yuan, down 6 yuan; the 01 - contract was - 72 yuan, down 7 yuan. [2] - **Spot**: The price of Shanghai Zhongtian rebar was 3230 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; Nanjing Xicheng was 3360 yuan/ton, unchanged; Shandong Shiheng was 3270 yuan/ton, unchanged; Tangshan Tanggang was 3090 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The profit from adjusted rolling products was 40 yuan, up 10 yuan; the profit of East China rebar was - 104 yuan, up 12 yuan; the profit of Tangshan rebar was - 282 yuan, up 5 yuan; the profit of Shandong rebar was - 446 yuan, down 110 yuan; the profit of Tangshan billet was - 217 yuan, down 4 yuan; the profit of East China electric - arc furnace at peak electricity was - 166 yuan, down 5 yuan; at off - peak electricity was - 7 yuan, down 5 yuan. [2] 3.1.2 Hot - Rolled Coils - **Futures**: HC05 was at 3308 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan; HC10 was at 3330 yuan/ton, up 29 yuan; HC01 was at 3350 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan. The 05 - contract hot - rolled coil's profit on the futures market was 23 yuan, down 15 yuan; the 10 - contract was 46 yuan, down 11 yuan; the 01 - contract was 50 yuan, down 11 yuan. [2] - **Spot**: The price of Tianjin Hegang hot - rolled coil was 3170 yuan/ton, unchanged; Lecong Rigang was 3290 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; Shanghai Angang was 3290 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The profit of Tianjin hot - rolled coil was - 369 yuan, down 5 yuan; the profit of East China hot - rolled coil was - 137 yuan, up 13 yuan. [2] 3.2 Market Judgment - **Related Prices**: The spot price of Shanghai Zhongtian rebar was 3230 yuan (+20), Beijing Jingye was 3150 yuan (+10), Shanghai Angang hot - rolled coil was 3290 yuan (+20), and Tianjin Hegang hot - rolled coil was 3170 yuan (unchanged). [5] - **Trading Strategies** - **Unilateral**: The market will maintain a volatile trend. - **Arbitrage**: It is recommended to short the hot - rolled coil to coking coal ratio at high prices, and continue to hold the short position of the hot - rolled coil to rebar spread. - **Options**: It is recommended to wait and see. [6][7][8] - **Important Information** - At the beginning of the new year, the container ship market has once again witnessed a boom in ship orders. Evergreen Marine, a shipping giant in Taiwan, China, has placed orders for 23 ships at two mainland shipyards with an investment of tens of billions. - The overall production of the five major steel products increased by 3.58 tons. The factory inventory of the five major steel products decreased by 0.84 tons month - on - month, the social inventory increased by 22.27 tons, and the total inventory increased by 21.43 tons. [9][10][12] 3.3 Related Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including those showing the basis, price differentials, and profit margins of rebar and hot - rolled coils for different contracts, as well as the cash profits of various steel products and the cost of electric - arc furnaces. [17][19][23]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract price of rebar rose and then fell, with a daily increase of 0.29%. The supply of rebar has increased to a high level, while the demand is weak. The fundamental contradictions are accumulating, and the steel price is under pressure in the off - season. With cost support and positive sentiment, the downward resistance increases. The steel price is expected to maintain a low - level oscillatory trend, and attention should be paid to inventory changes [5]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil oscillated, with a daily increase of 0.12%. The supply of hot - rolled coil has decreased, but the inventory is high and the pressure remains. The demand resilience is weakening, and industrial contradictions are likely to accumulate, putting pressure on the price. The speculative demand is acceptable, and the trend is expected to continue the oscillatory trend. Attention should be paid to the demand performance [5]. - The main contract price of iron ore weakened and declined, with a daily decrease of 0.95%. The supply of ore has shrunk, but the inventory is high, and the positive effect is not strong. The demand is weak, and the fundamentals of the ore have not improved. The ore price is still prone to pressure. The positive factors are the steel mills' replenishment and the positive sentiment of commodities. The ore price is expected to maintain an oscillatory trend, and attention should be paid to the steel mills' replenishment [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalog Industry Dynamics - As of January 26, 2026, the total new - signed contract value of 7 major construction central enterprises in 2025 exceeded 11.7 trillion yuan. China State Construction's new - signed contract value in 2025 was 454.58 billion yuan. In the construction business, the new - signed contract value was 415.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.7%. In the real estate business, the contract sales volume was 39.48 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 6.4% [7]. - Thailand made a second anti - dumping sunset review final ruling on cold - rolled carbon steel coils and non - coils from China (mainland, Taiwan region) and Vietnam, maintaining the original tax rate and continuing to impose an anti - dumping tax on the products at the CIF price for 5 years. The tax rate for mainland China is 9.24% - 20.11% for cold - rolled carbon steel products with a width greater than 1550 mm [8]. - The World Steel Association reported that the global crude steel production in 2025 was 1.8494 billion tons. In December 2025, the crude steel production of 70 countries/regions included in the statistics decreased by 3.7% year - on - year. The production in different regions showed different trends, such as a decrease of 6.3% in Asia and Oceania and an increase of 3.9% in the EU (27 countries) [9]. Spot Market - For rebar, the Shanghai price was 3,250 yuan, Tianjin was 3,170 yuan, and the national average was 3,324 yuan. For hot - rolled coil in Shanghai, it was 3,290 yuan, in Tianjin 3,180 yuan, and the national average was 3,304 yuan. The price of Tangshan billet was 2,950 yuan, and Zhangjiagang heavy scrap was 2,130 yuan. The coil - rebar spread was 40 yuan, and the rebar - scrap spread was 1,120 yuan. For iron ore, the price of PB powder at Shandong ports was 787 yuan, and Tangshan iron concentrate powder was 782 yuan. The sea freight from Australia was 7.80 yuan, and from Brazil 21.59 yuan. The SGX swap (current month) was 105.87 yuan, and the iron ore price index (61% FE, CFR) was 104.65 yuan [10]. Futures Market - In the futures market, the closing price of rebar was 3,143 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.29%, a trading volume of 809,245 lots, and an open interest decrease of 10,906 lots. The closing price of hot - rolled coil was 3,302 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.12%, a trading volume of 391,114 lots, and an open interest increase of 27,500 lots. The closing price of iron ore was 784.5 yuan, with a daily decrease of 0.95%, a trading volume of 261,690 lots, and an open interest decrease of 636 lots [12]. Related Charts - The report presents various inventory and production - related charts, including steel inventory (rebar, hot - rolled coil), iron ore inventory (45 - port, 247 - steel - mill, domestic mine iron concentrate powder), and steel - mill production situation (247 - sample steel - mill blast - furnace operating rate and capacity utilization, 87 - independent - electric - furnace operating rate, 247 - steel - mill profitable steel - mill ratio, 75 - building - material - independent - arc - furnace steel - mill profit and loss situation) [14][22][27] 后市研判 - For rebar, the supply has increased to a high level, and the demand is weak. The fundamental contradictions are accumulating, and the steel price is under pressure in the off - season. With cost support and positive sentiment, the downward resistance increases. The steel price is expected to maintain a low - level oscillatory trend, and attention should be paid to inventory changes [34]. - For hot - rolled coil, the supply has decreased, but the inventory is high and the pressure remains. The demand resilience is weakening, and industrial contradictions are likely to accumulate, putting pressure on the price. The speculative demand is acceptable, and the trend is expected to continue the oscillatory trend. Attention should be paid to the demand performance [34]. - For iron ore, the supply has shrunk, but the inventory is high, and the positive effect is not strong. The demand is weak, and the fundamentals of the ore have not improved. The ore price is still prone to pressure. The positive factors are the steel mills' replenishment and the positive sentiment of commodities. The ore price is expected to maintain an oscillatory trend, and attention should be paid to the steel mills' replenishment [35].

需求季节性下降，，钢价震荡运行 钢材周报 20250126 周贵升 从业资格证：F3036194 投资咨询证：Z0015986 段怡雯 从业资格证：F03131526 成材：需求季节性下降，钢价震荡运行 （1）供给：部分钢厂复产，全国主要钢厂螺纹钢当周产量为199.55万吨（+9.25），热轧当周产量为305.41万吨（-2.95）。 （2） 需求：需求季节性弱势。上周螺纹表观需求为185.52万吨（-4.82），热轧表观需求309.96万吨(-4.2）。 （3）库存： 螺纹库存累库，热卷库存维持去化，仍有压力。 螺纹钢总库存452.1万吨(+14.03），社会库存303.12万吨(+7.71)，钢厂库存148.98万吨(+6.32); 热轧总库存357.78万吨(-4.55),社会库存281.14万吨(-4.66)，钢厂库存76.64万吨(+0.11)。 （4）基差：截至1月23日，螺纹主力合约基差128元/吨（-9），热轧主力合约基差-15元/吨（0）。 （5）总结： 钢厂盈利率上升至40.69%; 铁水产量228.1万吨，环比增加0.09万吨。 高炉开工率78.68%，环比下降0.16%，高炉产能利用率 ...

Report's Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Views of the Report - The main contract price of rebar rose 0.06% after hitting a high and falling back, with increasing volume and open interest. Given the weak demand, stable supply, and weakening commodity sentiment, rebar prices are expected to face pressure and fluctuate. Attention should be paid to steel mill production [5]. - The main contract price of hot-rolled coil oscillated, rising 0.33% with increasing volume and open interest. Although the demand for hot-rolled coil is resilient and the fundamentals are stable, the supply is at a high level and there are concerns about demand. If demand weakens, industrial contradictions may accumulate, and prices may face pressure. In the short term, prices will maintain an oscillating trend, and attention should be paid to demand performance [5]. - The main contract price of iron ore oscillated weakly, falling 0.49% with increasing volume and decreasing open interest. Despite positive commodity sentiment and lingering bullish factors, the supply of iron ore is high while demand is weakly stable. The fundamentals are weak, and the upward driving force is not strong. Ore prices will oscillate at a high level, and there is a risk of prices weakening if the trading logic switches to the industrial side. Attention should be paid to steel mill restocking [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Industry Dynamics - The Financial Regulatory Administration aims to promote the regular operation of the urban real estate financing coordination mechanism, resolve risks in small and medium-sized financial institutions, and prevent and resolve risks in related fields [7]. - In December 2025, the sales of various excavators reached 23,095 units, a year-on-year increase of 19.2%. In 2025, a total of 235,257 excavators were sold, a year-on-year increase of 17% [8]. - The government of the Democratic Republic of the Congo is restarting a $29 billion iron ore export development plan, aiming to build a comprehensive mining and infrastructure project in the northern region, with an initial planned annual export capacity of about 50 million tons [9]. 2. Spot Market - In the spot market, prices and price changes are provided for rebar, hot-rolled coil, Tangshan billet, Zhangjiagang heavy scrap, PB fines, Tangshan iron concentrate, freight rates, SGX swaps, and iron ore price indexes [10]. 3. Futures Market - In the futures market, the relevant information of the main contracts of rebar, hot-rolled coil, and iron ore, including closing price, price change percentage, high and low price, trading volume, change in trading volume, open interest, and change in open interest, is presented [12]. 4. Related Charts - **Steel Inventory**: Charts show the weekly changes and total inventory of rebar and hot-rolled coil [14][15][20]. - **Iron Ore Inventory**: Charts display the inventory of 45 ports in China, including inventory changes, seasonal patterns, inventory of 247 steel mills, and domestic mine iron concentrate inventory [22][23][26]. - **Steel Mill Production**: Charts present the blast furnace operating rate, capacity utilization rate, proportion of profitable steel mills, independent electric furnace operating rate, and profit and loss situation of steel mills [29][31][32]. 5. Market Outlook - **Rebar**: Supply is weakly stable, and there is a possibility of increased production. Demand has improved but remains at a low level, and prices are expected to face pressure and fluctuate. Attention should be paid to steel mill production [37]. - **Hot-rolled Coil**: Supply is at a high level, and there are concerns about demand. The short-term trend will be oscillating, and attention should be paid to demand performance [37]. - **Iron Ore**: Supply is high, and demand is weakly stable. Ore prices will oscillate at a high level, and there is a risk of prices weakening if the trading logic switches to the industrial side. Attention should be paid to steel mill restocking [38].