| 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 | 钢材产业期现日报 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025年8月25日 | | | 問敏波 | Z0010559 | | | 钢材价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 某差 | 单位 | | 螺纹钢现货(华东) | 3280 | 3300 | -20 | 85 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华北) | 3270 | 3280 | -10 | 75 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华南) | 3390 | 3410 | -20 | 195 | | | 螺纹钢05合约 | 3230 | 3239 | -g | 50 | | | 螺纹钢10合约 | 3119 | 3121 | -2 | 161 | | | 螺纹钢01合约 | 3195 | 3200 | -5 | 85 | | | 热卷现货(华东) | 3400 | 3420 | -20 | 48 | 元/吨 | | 热卷现货(华北) | 3360 | 3370 | -10 | 8 | | | 热卷现货(华南) ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Steel Industry - The steel market is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation pattern. Suggest a wait - and - see approach for now [1]. Iron Ore Industry - After previous adjustments, iron ore will follow the rebound of finished steel products. It is recommended to switch to a buy - on - dips strategy [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry - For coke, it is recommended to switch to a buy - on - dips strategy for the 2601 contract and conduct a 9 - 1 positive spread arbitrage [6]. - For coking coal, it is recommended to switch to a buy - on - dips strategy and conduct a 9 - 1 positive spread arbitrage [6]. 3. Summary by Directory Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - The prices of most steel products decreased slightly, such as the prices of hot - rolled coils in different regions and some futures contracts of rebar [1]. Cost and Profit - The costs of some steel production processes decreased, while the profits of hot - rolled coils in some regions increased slightly, and the profits of rebar decreased [1]. Production and Inventory - The daily average pig iron output and the output of five major steel products increased slightly, but the rebar output decreased. The inventory of five major steel products and rebar increased [1]. Market Outlook - The rebar data has deteriorated, with a significant decline in August demand. The hot - rolled coil supply and demand are stable. The market is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation pattern [1]. Iron Ore Industry Prices and Spreads - The basis of some iron ore varieties increased, and the spreads between different contracts changed slightly [4]. Supply and Demand - The global iron ore shipment volume increased significantly, and the arrival volume at 45 ports decreased. The demand side shows that the iron water output remains at a high level, but the downstream demand has declined [4]. Inventory - The port inventory increased slightly, the steel mill's equity ore inventory increased, and the inventory available days of some steel mills increased [4]. Market Outlook - In August, the iron water output will decline slightly. After the previous adjustment, iron ore will follow the rebound of finished steel products [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Prices and Spreads - The prices of coke and coking coal futures contracts decreased, and the spreads between different contracts changed [6]. Supply and Demand - The coking enterprise's production increased slightly, and the demand side shows that the blast furnace iron water output fluctuates at a high level. The supply of coking coal has increased, and the downstream demand has slowed down [6]. Inventory - The coke inventory decreased overall, and the coking coal inventory is at a medium level with different trends in different sectors [6]. Market Outlook - The seventh round of coke price increase is still expected. For both coke and coking coal, it is recommended to switch to a buy - on - dips strategy and conduct 9 - 1 positive spread arbitrage [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Rebar**: The main contract futures price fluctuated higher with a daily increase of 0.75%, and both trading volume and open interest decreased. The market sentiment has warmed up, but the supply - demand pattern is weak, so the steel price is still under pressure. However, the low - inventory situation limits the downside space. It is expected to continue the fluctuating trend, and attention should be paid to inventory changes [4]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: The main contract futures price showed a strong - side fluctuation, with a daily increase of 0.41%, and both trading volume and open interest decreased. Although the fundamentals have weakened under the situation of increasing supply and demand, production - restriction disturbances are fermenting, the real - world contradictions are not significant, and raw materials are relatively strong. The price is expected to continue the upward - fluctuating trend, and overseas risks should be monitored [4]. - **Iron ore**: The main contract futures price fluctuated, with a daily decline of 0.06%, trading volume increased while open interest decreased. The demand for ore has certain resilience, supporting the high - level operation of ore prices, but the supply is increasing, and the fundamentals are expected to weaken. It is predicted to continue the high - level oscillatory consolidation, and the performance of finished products should be watched [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industry Dynamics - **Automobile industry**: The Passenger Car Association slightly raised the industry's annual forecast. Passenger car retail sales are expected to reach 24.35 million units in 2025, a 6% increase year - on - year, and the forecast volume is 300,000 units more than the June forecast. From January to June, the cumulative retail sales of passenger cars and new - energy passenger cars increased by 10.8% and 33.3% respectively [6]. - **Global manufacturing**: In July, the global manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, a 0.2 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month, showing weak operation. The Asian manufacturing PMI was 50.5%, a 0.2 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month, remaining above 50% for three consecutive months and continuing to support global economic recovery [7]. - **Steel industry**: In late July 2025, key steel enterprises produced 21.8 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 1.982 million tons, a 7.4% decrease from the previous period; 20.41 million tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 185,600 tons, a 4.5% decrease; and 23 million tons of steel, with an average daily output of 209,100 tons, a 0.5% increase [8]. Spot Market - **Steel products**: The national average prices of rebar (HRB400E, 20mm) and hot - rolled coil (4.75mm) were 3,404 yuan/ton and 3,496 yuan/ton respectively. The prices of Tangshan billet (Q235) and Zhangjiagang heavy scrap (≥6mm) were 3,090 yuan/ton and 2,140 yuan/ton respectively. The spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar was 130 yuan/ton, and the spread between rebar and scrap was 1,200 yuan/ton [9]. - **Iron ore**: The price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports was 776 yuan/ton, and the price of Tangshan iron concentrate (wet basis) was 752 yuan/ton. The sea freight from Australia and Brazil was 9.65 yuan/ton and 23.64 yuan/ton respectively. The SGX swap (current month) was 101.91, and the Platts index (CFR, 62%) was 101.65 [9]. Futures Market | Variety | Closing Price | Daily Change (%) | Trading Volume | Volume Difference | Open Interest | Open Interest Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rebar | 3,234 | 0.75 | 1,202,766 | - 377,887 | 1,652,569 | - 56,263 | | Hot - rolled coil | 3,451 | 0.41 | 561,631 | - 173,827 | 1,460,175 | - 1,559 | | Iron ore | 794.5 | - 0.06 | 208,804 | 10,737 | 358,293 | - 26,208 | [13] Relevant Charts - **Steel inventory**: Charts show the weekly changes and total inventory (steel mills + social inventory) of rebar and hot - rolled coil from 2021 - 2025 [16][18][22]. - **Iron ore inventory**: Charts display the inventory of 45 ports in China, 247 steel mills, and domestic mines, including seasonal inventory and inventory changes [21][25][27]. - **Steel mill production**: Charts present the blast - furnace operating rate, capacity utilization rate, profitability ratio of 247 steel mills, the operating rate of 87 independent electric furnaces, and the profit - loss situation of 75 building - material independent electric - arc - furnace steel mills [30][32][33]. 后市研判 (Translated as Future Outlook) - **Rebar**: Supply and demand have both weakened. Production is weakly stable, with weekly output decreasing slightly by 0.90 tons. Demand has also declined, with weekly apparent demand decreasing by 13.17 tons. The price is expected to continue to fluctuate, and inventory changes should be monitored [38]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: Supply has increased with the resumption of production after maintenance, and there is room for further growth. Demand has certain resilience, but there are concerns about external demand. The price is expected to continue to rise with fluctuations, and overseas risks should be noted [39]. - **Iron ore**: The supply - demand pattern has weakened, with a decline in terminal consumption. However, the profitability of steel mills is good, so the demand has certain resilience. The supply is increasing steadily. The price is expected to continue high - level oscillatory consolidation, and the performance of finished products should be watched [40].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The market sentiment for rebar and hot - rolled coil remains strong, with both showing a strong and volatile trend [3] - The trend strength for rebar and hot - rolled coil is 1, indicating a relatively strong trend [5][6] Group 3: Summary based on Related Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking Futures Data - For RB2510 of rebar, the closing price was 3,224 yuan/ton, up 68 yuan/ton or 2.15%. The trading volume was 2,696,289 lots, the open interest was 2,095,912 lots, and the open interest increased by 20,122 lots [3] - For HC2510 of hot - rolled coil, the closing price was 3,394 yuan/ton, up 73 yuan/ton or 2.20%. The trading volume was 1,279,822 lots, the open interest was 1,600,476 lots, and the open interest increased by 4,222 lots [3] Spot Price Data - Rebar spot prices in Shanghai, Hangzhou, Beijing, and Guangzhou increased by 70 - 80 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [3] - Hot - rolled coil spot prices in Shanghai, Hangzhou, Tianjin, and Guangzhou increased by 70 - 90 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [3] - The price of Tangshan steel billet was 3,060 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton from the previous day [3] Price Difference Data - The basis of RB2510 decreased by 7 yuan/ton, and the basis of HC2510 decreased by 4 yuan/ton [3] - The spread of RB2510 - RB2601 decreased by 9 yuan/ton, and the spread of HC2510 - HC2601 decreased by 6 yuan/ton [3] - The spread of HC2510 - RB2510 increased by 7 yuan/ton, and the spread of HC2601 - RB2601 increased by 4 yuan/ton [3] - The spot spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar increased by 8 yuan/ton [3] 2. Macro and Industry News Energy Consumption Data - In June, the total social electricity consumption was 867 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%. From January to June, the cumulative total social electricity consumption was 48,418 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 3.7%. The power generation of industrial enterprises above designated size was 45,371 billion kWh, and the electricity consumption of the secondary industry was 31,485 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 2.4% [3] Industry Policy News - On July 18, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology plans to implement a new round of steady - growth work plans for ten key industries including steel, aiming to adjust the structure, optimize supply, and eliminate backward production capacity [5] Industry Production and Inventory Data - According to the weekly data of Steel Union on July 17, the output of rebar decreased by 7.6 tons, the output of hot - rolled coil decreased by 2 tons, and the total output of five major varieties decreased by 0.96 tons. The total inventory of rebar increased by 2.89 tons, the total inventory of hot - rolled coil decreased by 2.65 tons, and the total inventory of five major varieties decreased by 1.92 tons. The apparent demand of rebar decreased by 15.33 tons, the apparent demand of hot - rolled coil increased by 1.28 tons, and the apparent demand of five major varieties increased by 0.61 tons [5] - In early July 2025, key steel enterprises produced 20.97 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 2.097 million tons, a 1.5% decrease in daily output compared to the previous period; 19.31 million tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 1.931 million tons, a 1.1% decrease in daily output; and 19.88 million tons of steel, with an average daily output of 1.988 million tons, an 11.9% decrease in daily output. The steel inventory of key enterprises was 15.07 million tons, a decrease of 380,000 tons or 2.4% from the previous ten - day period [5] - In June 2025, China's crude steel output was 83.18 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.2%. The average daily output of crude steel in June was 2.773 million tons, a 0.7% decrease from the previous month. From January to June, China's crude steel output was 514.83 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.0% [5] Financial Data - At the end of June 2025, the balance of broad - money (M2) was 330.29 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.3%, 0.4 percentage points higher than the previous month and 2.1 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The balance of narrow - money (M1) was 113.95 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.6% [5] Export Data - In June 2025, China exported 9.678 million tons of steel, a decrease of 900,000 tons or 8.5% from the previous month, with an average price of 687.1 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 10.8 US dollars/ton or 1.5% from the previous month. From January to June, the cumulative steel exports were 58.147 million tons, an increase of 4.908 million tons or 9.2% year - on - year [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a decline in steel prices across various categories, with the national absolute price index for steel at 3442 yuan/ton, down 0.1% week-on-week and down 12.9% year-on-year [1] - Specific price indices for different steel products show a mixed trend: long products at 3278 yuan/ton (down 0.1% week-on-week, down 13.0% year-on-year), section steel at 3384 yuan/ton (down 0.4% week-on-week, down 14.2% year-on-year), plate steel at 3518 yuan/ton (up 0.1% week-on-week, down 13.1% year-on-year), and pipe steel at 3944 yuan/ton (down 0.1% week-on-week, down 11% year-on-year) [1] - The macroeconomic environment is characterized by proactive policies aimed at stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations, with a focus on expanding domestic demand and strengthening the domestic cycle, reflecting the resilience and vitality of the economy [1] Group 2 - In the futures market, there was an increase in prices for coking coal (up 2.78%), coke (up 2.9%), rebar (up 1.05%), and hot-rolled coil (up 1.47%), while iron ore prices remained stable [2] - On the supply side, steel companies are showing increased capacity release due to varying profitability across products, leading to a slight increase in molten iron production, although production levels for specific products vary [2] - Demand is affected by seasonal weather factors, resulting in generally poor transaction performance across various products, while cost support for steel prices remains strong due to stable scrap steel prices and steady coke prices [2]