Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant growth and transformation of China's carbon fiber industry, particularly focusing on Jilin Chemical Fiber's impressive sales increase and the shift towards a more integrated and responsive manufacturing model [3][5][10]. Group 1: Industry Growth and Performance - In the first half of 2025, China's carbon fiber industry surpassed previous expectations of "structural oversupply," with Jilin Chemical Fiber's sales increasing by 65% year-on-year, exceeding 25,000 tons, and projected to surpass 56,000 tons for the year [3]. - The production of downstream composite materials and products has grown by 5.9 times, indicating rising capacity utilization and internal absorption capabilities [3]. - Jilin Chemical Fiber's growth is attributed to a product structure adjustment focused on end-user scenarios, moving away from the previous "production determines sales" strategy [3]. Group 2: Manufacturing and Technological Advancements - The choice of technological pathways and internal structural adjustments are crucial for Jilin Chemical Fiber to move beyond the "cyclical carbon fiber manufacturing" paradigm [5]. - The company has achieved a high self-use rate of 91% for precursor materials and 50% for carbonized products, indicating a closed-loop manufacturing capability from raw materials to composite products [5]. - This manufacturing model ensures performance consistency during bulk delivery and provides flexibility to adjust to market fluctuations [5]. Group 3: Industry Collaboration and Policy Support - The article notes that Jilin Chemical Fiber's success is not isolated, as multiple industrial clusters across the country are forming around the vertical integration of carbon fiber production [6]. - Companies like Zhongfu Shenying and Guangwei Composites are establishing integrated platforms from precursor manufacturing to structural design, enhancing their competitive edge [6]. - Local governments are establishing special funds and pilot platforms to support the carbon fiber industry, aligning with the "14th Five-Year Plan" to promote advanced materials [8]. Group 4: Market Trends and Future Outlook - The focus of industry competition is shifting from "single performance indicators" to "system integration adaptability," emphasizing the need for companies to adapt to user processes and provide stable supply [10]. - Chinese carbon fiber is moving away from a "low-end substitution" mindset, developing capabilities to compete with international leaders in mid-modulus and mid-stress composite components [10]. - The carbon fiber industry is entering a "system engineering" phase, requiring companies to focus on core technologies and industry chain integration rather than just capacity and cost [10].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [4]. Core Views - The company is positioned as a core supplier of advanced carbon fiber for aerospace applications in China, with significant growth potential driven by new procurement cycles and product launches in the aviation sector [2][14]. - The company is expected to benefit from the ongoing industrialization of domestic large aircraft, particularly through its development of carbon fiber prepreg materials [3][4]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, established in 2008, specializes in high-end carbon fiber for aerospace applications, with key products including the ZT7 and ZT9 series [14]. - The ZT7 series was validated in 2012 and began stable production in 2014, while the ZT9 series was developed in 2015 and achieved stable mass production in 2023 [14]. Growth Drivers - A new round of procurement for aviation equipment is anticipated, with the company expected to benefit as a supplier of raw materials [2]. - The ZT9 series has entered the mass supply phase, contributing to revenue growth, with ZT9H being the only domestically engineered third-generation carbon fiber product [3]. - The company is actively expanding its production capacity to meet increasing downstream demand, with plans for a fourth phase of production [4]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts significant revenue growth, with expected revenues of CNY 812 million in 2024, up 45.4% year-over-year, and projected net profits of CNY 356 million, a 23.2% increase [6][4]. - By 2025, the company anticipates net profits of CNY 532 million, corresponding to a P/E ratio of 29X [4]. Market Position - The company is well-positioned to become a key supplier for the domestic large aircraft market, leveraging its advanced technology and established relationships with major manufacturers [3][4]. - The report highlights the increasing use of carbon fiber in military and civilian aircraft, with significant growth expected in the coming years [27][34].