2026 年 2 月 27 日 盈利预测、估值与评级：由于碳纤维行业逐步回暖，我们上调公司 2025-2027 年的盈利预测，预计 2025-2027 年公司归母净利润分别为 1.91（上调 20%）/2.81 （上调 23%）/3.70（上调 11%）亿元。我们持续看好公司作为国内碳纤维原丝 龙头的后续成长，维持公司"增持"评级。 碳纤维需求回暖新产能有序释放，25 年业绩同比高增 ——吉林碳谷（920077.BJ）2025 年业绩快报点评 要点 风险提示：产能释放不及预期，产品及原材料价格波动，下游需求不及预期风险。 公司盈利预测与估值简表 公司研究 事件：公司发布 2025 年年度业绩快报，2025 年公司实现营业收入 25.37 亿元， 同比增长 58.2%；实现归母净利润 1.91 亿元，同比增长 104%。其中，Q4 单季 度公司实现营业收入 6.62 亿元，同比增长 43.8%，环比下降 3.9%；实现归母 净利润 0.61 亿元，同比增长 373%，环比增长 16%。 碳纤维需求回暖公司新产能逐步释放，2025 年业绩同比高增。根据百川盈孚数 据，2025 年我国碳纤维市场均价为 83.75 ...

Core Insights - Jilin Chemical Fiber Group is actively producing carbon fiber during the Spring Festival to meet high order demands, establishing itself as a major player in the carbon fiber industry [1] - The company has developed a complete industrial chain for carbon fiber production, from raw silk to end products, making it the largest carbon fiber production base globally [1] - The annual production capacity of the composite materials company under Jilin Chemical Fiber Group is 50,000 tons, with a projected sales increase of 160% by 2025 [1] Industry Overview - Carbon fiber is recognized as the "king of new materials," offering strength greater than steel and lighter weight than aluminum, making it suitable for various applications including renewable energy equipment, automotive lightweighting, sports equipment, and aerospace [1] - The industry has transitioned from foreign monopoly to domestic large-scale production over the past 20 years, indicating significant growth and development in the sector [1] Production and Development - The production process involves multiple steps including oxidation, low-temperature carbonization, high-temperature carbonization, and surface treatment, resulting in the transformation of white carbon fiber raw silk into black carbon wire [1] - The design and development of new pultruded boards require extensive testing and experimentation, typically taking three to four months to ensure product performance meets customer requirements [2]

稀缺原丝龙头，受益于风电需求回升 吉林碳谷(920077) 吉林碳谷首次覆盖报告 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 鲍雁辛(分析师) | 0755-23976830 | baoyanxin@gtht.com | S0880513070005 | | 花健祎(分析师) | 0755-23976858 | huajianyi@gtht.com | S0880521010001 | | 杨冬庭(分析师) | 0755-23976166 | yangdongting@gtht.com | S0880522080004 | 本报告导读： 公司是稀缺的碳纤维原丝龙头，在碳纤维行业底部运行区间原丝盈利稳定度好于碳 丝，伴随 25 年风电需求回暖，公司产销和盈利同步回升。 投资要点： | [Table_Finance] 财务摘要(百万元) | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入 | 2,049 ...

稀缺原丝龙头，受益于风电需求回升 吉林碳谷(920077) 本报告导读： 公司是稀缺的碳纤维原丝龙头，在碳纤维行业底部运行区间原丝盈利稳定度好于碳 丝，伴随 25 年风电需求回暖，公司产销和盈利同步回升。 投资要点： | [Table_Finance] 财务摘要(百万元) | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入 | 2,049 | 1,603 | 2,498 | 2,858 | 3,250 | | (+/-)% | -1.7% | -21.8% | 55.8% | 14.4% | 13.7% | | 净利润(归母) | 231 | 94 | 198 | 289 | 365 | | (+/-)% | -63.2% | -59.4% | 110.6% | 45.9% | 26.6% | | 每股净收益(元) | 0.39 | 0.16 | 0.34 | 0.49 | 0.62 | | 净资产收益率(%) | 9.6% | 3.8% | 7.5% | 9.8% | 11.1% | ...

Core Viewpoint - The performance forecasts from eight companies listed on the Beijing Stock Exchange indicate a generally positive outlook for 2025, with most companies expecting profit growth, reflecting their ability to seize market opportunities and enhance competitiveness [1][2]. Group 1: Performance Overview - Out of the eight companies, five are expected to see profit increases, with Haine Technology projecting a net profit growth of over 213.65% to 236.61% [2] - Jilin Carbon Valley anticipates a net profit of 180 million to 220 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 92.81% to 135.66% [2] - Longzhu Technology, Wangcheng Technology, and Lintai New Materials expect net profit growth of approximately 50%, over 66%, and over 64%, respectively, indicating robust growth momentum [2][3] - Conversely, three companies forecast losses or profit declines, with Hualing Co. expecting a loss of 44 million to 56 million yuan, and Ge Bi Jia projecting a 59.63% decline in net profit [2][5] Group 2: Market Demand and Growth Drivers - The growth of companies is primarily driven by an improving external market environment and internal capability enhancements [3] - The overall recovery in industry demand is a significant backdrop, with Haine Technology noting a notable trend towards domestic manufacturing of high-end instruments and the gradual implementation of equipment renewal policies [3] - Jilin Carbon Valley reported continuous sales growth due to the recovering carbon fiber market [3] Group 3: Internal Innovations and Strategies - Companies are enhancing their internal growth momentum through ongoing technological innovation, product upgrades, and market expansion [4] - Haine Technology has invested in R&D, launching high-end products like organic element analyzers and liquid chromatography instruments, which have improved customer recognition and revenue [4] - Jilin Carbon Valley has improved product quality and stability through continuous innovation, while Longzhu Technology has seen rapid growth in its cross-border e-commerce business [4] Group 4: Cost Pressures and Challenges - Companies forecasting losses or declines attribute these to rising fixed costs, reduced specific revenues, and ongoing adjustments in their respective sectors [5] - Hualing Co. cited increased depreciation costs and employee salaries due to new equipment and project-related hiring as significant pressures on profits [5] - Ge Bi Jia mentioned a decline in the sales proportion of high-margin specialty glass products and reduced government subsidies as factors contributing to lower overall profit margins [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - The overall performance outlook for companies listed on the Beijing Stock Exchange is positive, with most expecting profit growth, although some face challenges due to rising costs and industry adjustments [1][2]. Group 1: Performance Forecasts - HaiNeng Technology anticipates a more than doubling of net profit, with an increase of 213.65% to 236.61% [1][2]. - Jilin Carbon Valley expects net profit to reach between 180 million to 220 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 92.81% to 135.66% [1][2]. - Longzhu Technology, Wangcheng Technology, and Lintai New Materials forecast net profit growth of approximately 50%, over 66%, and over 64%, respectively [1][2]. - Among the eight companies that disclosed forecasts, five expect profit increases, one expects a profit decrease, and two anticipate losses [2]. Group 2: Market Demand and Growth Drivers - The growth of companies is driven by improved external market conditions and enhanced internal capabilities [3]. - The overall recovery in industry demand is a significant backdrop, with HaiNeng Technology noting a trend towards domestic manufacturing of high-end instruments and the gradual implementation of equipment renewal policies [3]. - Jilin Carbon Valley highlights continuous growth in product sales due to the recovering carbon fiber market [3]. Group 3: Internal Innovations and Strategies - Companies are strengthening their internal growth momentum through ongoing technological innovation, product upgrades, and market expansion [4]. - HaiNeng Technology has invested in R&D, launching high-end products like organic element analyzers and liquid chromatography instruments, enhancing customer recognition and revenue [4]. - Jilin Carbon Valley has improved product quality and stability through continuous innovation, with a project to produce 150,000 tons of carbon fiber raw silk reinforcing its scale advantage [4]. - Lintai New Materials has capitalized on the rapid increase in market penetration for hybrid power transmission systems, contributing to sales growth [4]. - Longzhu Technology's cross-border e-commerce business has seen rapid growth, while Wangcheng Technology benefits from increased sales of automotive transmission components and improved gross margins [4]. Group 4: Cost Pressures and Challenges - Companies forecasting losses or declines attribute these to rising fixed costs, reduced specific revenues, and ongoing adjustments in their respective sectors [5][6]. - Hualing Co. cites significant increases in depreciation expenses and employee compensation due to new equipment and project-related hiring [5]. - Gobi Jia mentions increased costs from implementing equity incentives and a decline in the sales proportion of high-margin specialty glass products, leading to lower overall gross margins [6]. - Ying Tai Bio has narrowed its losses significantly through focused product strategies and cost control, but still faces challenges from investment losses and a sluggish market for intermediates [6].

中化新网讯 1月19日，吉林碳谷发布业绩预告，预计2025年实现归母净利润1.8亿～2.2亿元，同比增长 92.81%～135.66%。 面对市场新趋势，吉林碳谷秉承"大小丝束齐发展"策略，在碳纤维原丝领域实现了全牌号、全规格覆 盖，持续在工业与民用市场开拓布局。同时，该公司在新项目落地、新技术开发及降本增效等方面取得 了一系列成果，进一步巩固并扩大了市场竞争优势。 业绩增长主要得益于碳纤维市场的逐步回暖，尤其是风电和低空经济领域的需求增长，为吉林碳谷产能 释放提供了宝贵的市场空间。报告期内，该公司持续推进技术攻关，提升产品品质与性能，推动碳纤维 原丝销量持续增长，有效应对了前期的行业调整。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Jilin Carbon Valley announces an expected net profit of 180 million to 220 million yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 92.81% to 135.66% [1] Company Summary - The company’s carbon fiber precursor has gained widespread market recognition, leading to continuous growth in sales [1]

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，1月19日，吉林碳谷公告，预计2025年净利润1.8亿至2.2亿元，同比增长 92.81%~135.66%。公司碳纤维原丝赢得市场广泛认可，销量实现持续增长。 ...

中证报中证网讯（记者 宋维东）吉林碳谷1月19日晚发布业绩预告，公司2025年预计实现归母净利润1.8 亿元至2.2亿元，同比增长92.81%至135.66%。 吉林碳谷相关负责人对中国证券报记者表示，面对市场发展新趋势，公司秉承"大小丝束齐发展"策略， 在碳纤维原丝领域实现全牌号及全规格发展，在工业用和民用方面开拓更大市场，进一步巩固并扩大市 场竞争优势。 相关业内人士表示，近年来，吉林碳谷将研发重点聚焦于高性能碳纤维原丝技术研发、国产油剂开发与 湿法原丝技术提升等方面，为公司整体提质降本增效提供了重要支撑，也为长远发展奠定了坚实基础。 随着碳纤维市场进一步回暖、下游行业市场空间愈加广阔，作为国产碳纤维原丝龙头的吉林碳谷将更好 地分享行业成长红利，进一步增强盈利能力，不断扩大领先优势，提升综合竞争力。 值得一提的是，2025年，碳纤维行业逐步回暖，特别是风电和低空经济方面表现尤为明显，为吉林碳谷 产能释放提供宝贵的市场空间。公司在新项目、新技术开发、降成本等方面取得一系列成果。 2025年，随着相关项目建设扎实推进，吉林碳谷碳纤维原丝规模化优势进一步凸显，高性能产品比重不 断提升，总体生产成本不断降低。特别 ...