新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-01-16 再次去库，碳酸锂呈宽幅震荡态势 市场分析 2026-01-15，碳酸锂主力合约2605开于163840元/吨，收于163220元/吨，当日收盘价较昨日结算价变化-1.31%。当 日成交量为431256手，持仓量为443942手，前一交易日持仓量452583手，根据SMM现货报价，目前基差为-3980 元/吨（电碳均价-期货）。当日碳酸锂仓单27205手，较上个交易日变化47手。 碳酸锂现货：根据SMM数据，电池级碳酸锂报价156000-162000元/吨，较前一交易日变化-4000元/吨，工业级碳酸 锂报价152000-159000元/吨，较前一交易日变化-4000元/吨。6%锂精矿价格2155美元/吨，较前一日变化-45美元/吨。 由于近日广期所连续的调控政策出手，叠加价格已处两年内高位，碳酸锂价格连续呈回调态势。但SMM周度库存 数据发布显示本周碳酸锂呈去库状态，昨日尾盘价格出现一定反弹。根据SMM最新统计数据，现货库存为109942 吨 ，环比-263吨。其中冶炼厂库存为19727吨，环比+1345吨；下游库存为35652吨，环比-888吨；其他库存为54 ...

锂矿双雄走低，截至发稿，赣锋锂业（002460）(01772)跌4.19%，报64港元；天齐锂业（002466） (09696)跌3.5%，报55.1港元。 消息面上，1月16日，碳酸锂盘中触及跌停，跌破15万关口。华泰期货认为，由于近日广期所连续的调 控政策出手，叠加价格已处两年内高位，碳酸锂价格连续呈回调态势。该行指出，当前多空分歧较大， 下游储能需求仍保持火热，本周呈一定去库状态，但碳酸锂价格向电芯端传导不佳，且当前价格仍处两 年内高位，预计价格仍将呈现宽幅震荡态势，并有回调风险。后续需关注下游整体消费情况是否能带动 碳酸锂价值链的传导。 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：华泰期货 作者： 师橙 市场分析 2026-01-15，碳酸锂主力合约2605开于163840元/吨，收于163220元/吨，当日收盘价较昨日结算价变 化-1.31%。当日成交量为431256手，持仓量为443942手，前一交易日持仓量452583手，根据SMM现货 报价，目前基差为-3980元/吨（电碳均价-期货）。当日碳酸锂仓单27205手，较上个交易日变化47手。 碳酸锂现货：根据SMM数据，电池级碳酸锂报价156000-162000元/吨，较前一交易日变化-4000元/吨， 工业级碳酸锂报价152000-159000元/吨，较前一交易日变化-4000元/吨。6%锂精矿价格2155美元/吨，较 前一日变化-45美元/吨。 由于近日广期所连续的调控政策出手，叠加价格已处两年内高位，碳酸锂价格连续呈回调态势。但 SMM周度库存数据发布显示本周碳酸锂呈去库状态，昨日尾盘价格出现一定反弹。根据SMM最新统计 数据，现货库存为109942吨 ，环比-263吨。其中冶炼厂库存为19727吨，环比+1345吨；下游库存为 35652吨，环比-88 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The current supply and demand are both strong, with limited inventory pressure upstream and improved macro - conditions. The cancellation of warehouse receipts drives up the price. However, production remains at a high level, and after the price increase, downstream inventory replenishment slows down. The inflection point of power demand may be approaching, so it is expected that the lithium price has room for a callback. It is recommended to hold short positions [3]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Market Data - **Futures Data**: On October 31, 2025, the closing price of the near - month contract of lithium carbonate futures was 79,300 yuan/ton, down 2,540 yuan from the previous day. The trading volume was 915,245 lots (+86,128), and the open interest was 510,440 lots (-44,231) [3]. - **Spot Price**: The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5% domestic) was 80,550 yuan/ton, up 550 yuan; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2% domestic) was 78,350 yuan/ton, up 550 yuan; the average price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (56.5% domestic) had different price changes, with an increase of 400 yuan in some types [3]. - **Inventory Data**: The SMM lithium carbonate inventory showed different trends in different sectors. The registered warehouse receipts were 27,621 tons (-20), and the total inventory was 127,358 tons, down 3,008 tons compared to before [3]. 3.2 Industry Trends - **Global Energy Storage**: From January to June 2025, the global energy - storage cell shipments reached 246.4 GWh, a year - on - year increase of 115.2%. The top ten enterprises were all from China, and the domestic enterprises' share of energy - storage lithium - battery shipments in the world exceeded 94%. According to the current expansion progress, the overseas production capacity will be put into operation intensively from 2026 - 2028 [3]. 3.3 Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: Last week, lithium carbonate production decreased, mainly due to a slight decline in the production of lithium carbonate from spodumene. The price of spodumene powder remained flat, and the price of lithium mica remained stable [3]. - **Demand**: Last week, the production of lithium iron phosphate increased, the production of ternary materials increased. In October, the production schedule of lithium carbonate and manganese - based lithium increased, and the production of power batteries increased last week. In terms of terminal demand, the year - on - year growth rate of new - energy vehicle production and sales slowed down in September, the 3C shipments were average, and the production schedule of energy - storage batteries increased in October [3].