1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The price of lithium carbonate is expected to show a wide - range oscillation pattern with a risk of correction due to large long - short divergence, poor price transmission to the cell end, and the price remaining at a two - year high, despite strong downstream energy storage demand and a certain de - stocking state this week. Attention should be paid to whether downstream consumption can drive the value - chain transmission of lithium carbonate [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On January 15, 2026, the main contract 2605 of lithium carbonate opened at 163,840 yuan/ton and closed at 163,220 yuan/ton, with a - 1.31% change compared to the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 431,256 lots, and the open interest was 443,942 lots (452,583 lots the previous day). The current basis was - 3,980 yuan/ton, and the number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts was 27,205 lots, a change of 47 lots from the previous day [1] - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 156,000 - 162,000 yuan/ton, a - 4,000 yuan/ton change from the previous day; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 152,000 - 159,000 yuan/ton, also a - 4,000 yuan/ton change. The price of 6% lithium concentrate was 2,155 US dollars/ton, a - 45 US dollars/ton change. Due to regulatory policies and high prices, the price of lithium carbonate has been in a callback state, but there was a certain rebound at the end of yesterday's trading due to de - stocking. The current spot inventory is 109,942 tons, a - 263 - ton change from the previous week. Among them, smelter inventory was 19,727 tons (+1,345 tons), downstream inventory was 35,652 tons (- 888 tons), and other inventory was 54,300 tons (- 720 tons) [2] Strategy - Given the large long - short divergence, strong downstream energy storage demand, and a certain de - stocking state this week, but poor price transmission to the cell end and the price remaining at a two - year high, the price of lithium carbonate is expected to show a wide - range oscillation pattern with a risk of correction. Attention should be paid to whether downstream consumption can drive the value - chain transmission of lithium carbonate [3] Trading Recommendations - For unilateral trading, it is recommended to wait and see in the short term. There are no recommendations for inter - delivery spread, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a decline in lithium mining stocks, specifically Ganfeng Lithium and Tianqi Lithium, due to a drop in lithium carbonate prices [1] - As of January 16, lithium carbonate prices hit a limit down, falling below 150,000 yuan, influenced by recent regulatory measures from the futures market and the fact that prices are at a two-year high [1] - Huatai Futures notes a significant divergence in market sentiment, with strong demand from downstream energy storage but poor transmission of lithium carbonate prices to the battery cell sector, indicating potential for continued price volatility and risk of further declines [1] Group 2 - Ganfeng Lithium's stock decreased by 4.19%, trading at 64 HKD, while Tianqi Lithium's stock fell by 3.5%, trading at 55.1 HKD [1] - The current market situation shows a certain level of destocking in the energy storage sector, but the overall consumption in downstream markets will be crucial for the transmission of value within the lithium carbonate supply chain [1]

Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate market is experiencing a price correction after reaching a two-year high, influenced by regulatory policies and a decrease in demand from downstream consumers [3][9]. Market Analysis - On January 15, 2026, the main contract for lithium carbonate opened at 163,840 CNY/ton and closed at 163,220 CNY/ton, reflecting a decrease of 1.31% from the previous settlement price. The trading volume was 431,256 contracts, with an open interest of 443,942 contracts [2][8]. - The current spot prices for battery-grade lithium carbonate are between 156,000 and 162,000 CNY/ton, down by 4,000 CNY/ton from the previous trading day. Industrial-grade lithium carbonate is priced between 152,000 and 159,000 CNY/ton, also down by 4,000 CNY/ton. The price of 6% lithium concentrate is 2,155 USD/ton, a decrease of 45 USD/ton from the previous day [2][8]. Inventory and Demand - Recent data from SMM indicates a decrease in lithium carbonate inventory, with a total of 109,942 tons, down by 263 tons week-on-week. Smelter inventory increased by 1,345 tons to 19,727 tons, while downstream inventory decreased by 888 tons to 35,652 tons [3][9]. - The shift from inventory accumulation to depletion suggests some support for demand from downstream consumers, indicating a balanced supply and demand situation in the short term [3][9]. Strategy and Outlook - There is significant divergence in market sentiment, with strong demand for energy storage from downstream sectors. However, the transmission of lithium carbonate prices to the battery cell sector remains weak, and prices are still at a two-year high, suggesting a potential for wide fluctuations and correction risks [4][10]. - Future attention should be focused on whether overall consumption can drive the transmission of value within the lithium carbonate supply chain [10].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The current supply and demand are both strong, with limited inventory pressure upstream and improved macro - conditions. The cancellation of warehouse receipts drives up the price. However, production remains at a high level, and after the price increase, downstream inventory replenishment slows down. The inflection point of power demand may be approaching, so it is expected that the lithium price has room for a callback. It is recommended to hold short positions [3]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Market Data - **Futures Data**: On October 31, 2025, the closing price of the near - month contract of lithium carbonate futures was 79,300 yuan/ton, down 2,540 yuan from the previous day. The trading volume was 915,245 lots (+86,128), and the open interest was 510,440 lots (-44,231) [3]. - **Spot Price**: The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5% domestic) was 80,550 yuan/ton, up 550 yuan; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2% domestic) was 78,350 yuan/ton, up 550 yuan; the average price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (56.5% domestic) had different price changes, with an increase of 400 yuan in some types [3]. - **Inventory Data**: The SMM lithium carbonate inventory showed different trends in different sectors. The registered warehouse receipts were 27,621 tons (-20), and the total inventory was 127,358 tons, down 3,008 tons compared to before [3]. 3.2 Industry Trends - **Global Energy Storage**: From January to June 2025, the global energy - storage cell shipments reached 246.4 GWh, a year - on - year increase of 115.2%. The top ten enterprises were all from China, and the domestic enterprises' share of energy - storage lithium - battery shipments in the world exceeded 94%. According to the current expansion progress, the overseas production capacity will be put into operation intensively from 2026 - 2028 [3]. 3.3 Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: Last week, lithium carbonate production decreased, mainly due to a slight decline in the production of lithium carbonate from spodumene. The price of spodumene powder remained flat, and the price of lithium mica remained stable [3]. - **Demand**: Last week, the production of lithium iron phosphate increased, the production of ternary materials increased. In October, the production schedule of lithium carbonate and manganese - based lithium increased, and the production of power batteries increased last week. In terms of terminal demand, the year - on - year growth rate of new - energy vehicle production and sales slowed down in September, the 3C shipments were average, and the production schedule of energy - storage batteries increased in October [3].