消息面上，7月31日，碳酸锂期货主力合约一度跌超6%，现报68300元/吨。西南期货指出，基本面上来 看，碳酸锂市场的供需格局未改，资源端供应仍旧坚挺，虽然部分大厂停产检修导致本周供应量有所下 滑，但总体仍旧维持高位，近期消费端有所好转，下游七月排产增长，主因储能需求支撑，然而下游采 购畏高情绪较强，叠加本身库存较为充裕导致观望情绪浓厚，交投仍旧比较冷清，基本面供需过剩格局 并未扭转，不过矿端供应仍有较大不确定性。 智通财经获悉，锂业股继续走低，截至发稿，天齐锂业(09696)跌4.25%，报34.9港元；赣锋锂业(01772) 跌4.21%，报26.15港元。 本文源自：智通财经网 ...

Group 1 - Lithium stocks continue to decline, with Tianqi Lithium down 4.25% at HKD 34.9 and Ganfeng Lithium down 4.21% at HKD 26.15 [1] - On July 31, lithium carbonate futures main contract fell over 6%, currently reported at CNY 68,300 per ton [1] - Southwest Futures indicates that the supply-demand balance in the lithium carbonate market remains unchanged, with supply still robust despite some major manufacturers undergoing maintenance [1] Group 2 - Although there has been a slight decrease in supply this week due to maintenance, overall supply levels remain high [1] - Recent improvements in downstream consumption are noted, with July production increasing primarily due to energy storage demand [1] - However, there is a strong reluctance to purchase at high prices in the downstream market, coupled with ample inventory leading to a cautious trading atmosphere [1]

Group 1 - Lithium stocks continue to decline, with Tianqi Lithium (002466)(09696) down 4.25% at HKD 34.9 and Ganfeng Lithium (002460)(01772) down 4.21% at HKD 26.15 [1] - On July 31, lithium carbonate futures main contract fell over 6%, currently reported at CNY 68,300 per ton [1] - Southwest Futures indicates that the supply-demand structure of the lithium carbonate market remains unchanged, with supply from the resource side still strong [1] Group 2 - Although some major manufacturers have halted production for maintenance, the overall supply remains high, and recent consumption has shown improvement due to increased production in July, primarily supported by energy storage demand [1] - However, downstream purchasing sentiment is cautious due to high prices, coupled with ample inventory leading to a strong wait-and-see attitude, resulting in relatively quiet trading [1] - The fundamental oversupply situation has not been reversed, although there remains significant uncertainty regarding supply from the mining sector [1]

供需格局分析：供应扰动与需求分化并存 周三，碳酸锂期货市场呈现先跌后涨的震荡走势，主力合约最终收涨0.43%，报70660元/吨。市场波动 可能受到多空因素交织影响：一方面部分大厂停产检修导致周度供应量下滑，另一方面库存继续攀升至 14.32万吨（SMM数据），基本面供需过剩格局尚未扭转。 市场博弈焦点：上下游心理价位存显著分歧 对于后市走势，机构观点呈现分歧。金瑞期货认为："市场近期消息炒作较多，情绪降温资金离场，市 场逐步回归理性，预计短期价格宽幅震荡。"该机构特别提醒投资者关注江西矿山采矿证问题的最终定 论，这将成为影响短期市场情绪的关键因素。 中辉期货从供需平衡角度分析指出："综合近期国内外的减产信息，全年的过剩量将由8万吨缩窄至5万 吨LCE。"该机构警告称："目前基本面的变化明显滞后，警惕市场情绪变化带来的大幅波动，情绪见顶 后逐渐回归基本面交易。" 现货市场方面，据SMM数据显示，电池级碳酸锂均价报7.295万元/吨，环比下跌200元/吨；工业级碳酸 锂均价7.085万元/吨，环比下跌150元/吨。瑞达期货分析称："碳酸锂矿端扰动事件叠加国内政策对产业 结构调整优化的影响，矿商挺价意愿增强矿价上 ...