Research Views - Yesterday, the 2509 contract of lithium carbonate futures rose 0.43% to 70,600 yuan/ton. The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate decreased by 200 yuan/ton to 72,950 yuan/ton, the average price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate decreased by 150 yuan/ton to 70,850 yuan/ton, and the price of battery-grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) increased by 50 yuan/ton to 65,470 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory increased by 855 tons to 13,131 tons [3]. - On the supply side, the output in July is expected to increase by 3.9% month-on-month to 81,150 tons, and the weekly output decreased by 485 tons to 18,630 tons. In terms of imports, China's lithium carbonate import volume in June 2025 was 17,700 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 16.3%. On the demand side, the production schedule in July increased slightly month-on-month, and the consumption of lithium carbonate by the two major main materials increased by 3% month-on-month to about 80,800 tons. On the inventory side, the weekly inventory increased by 550 tons to 143,170 tons, with downstream inventory increasing by 1,544 tons to 42,815 tons, intermediate links increasing by 1,660 tons to 44,970 tons, and upstream inventory decreasing by 2,654 tons to 55,385 tons [3]. - The core contradiction in the short-term fundamentals lies in concerns about supply disruptions, but there is still no clear announcement. Affected by the overall market, market volatility is relatively large. Opportunities to short volatility in the subsequent market can be monitored, and attention should be paid to position management [3]. Daily Data Monitoring - The report presents a table of daily price data for various products in the lithium - ion battery industry chain, including futures, lithium ore, lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, and other related products. It shows price changes from July 29 - 30, 2025, such as the main contract closing price of futures dropping from 70,840 yuan/ton to 70,600 yuan/ton, and the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreasing by 200 yuan/ton [5]. Chart Analysis Ore Prices - The report includes charts showing the price trends of lithium - related ores such as lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF), lithium mica (1.5% - 2.0%, 2.0% - 2.5%), and lithium aluminum phosphate stone (6% - 7%, 7% - 8%) from 2024 to 2025 [6][8]. Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices - There are charts depicting the price trends of metal lithium, battery - grade lithium carbonate average price, industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price, battery - grade lithium hydroxide price, industrial - grade lithium hydroxide price, and lithium hexafluorophosphate price from 2024 to 2025 [9][11][13]. Price Spreads - Charts display the price spreads between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and other related spreads from 2024 to 2025 [16][17][18]. Precursor & Cathode Materials - The report provides charts showing the price trends of ternary precursors (523, 622, 811), ternary materials (523, 622, 811), lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganate, and cobalt acid lithium from 2024 to 2025 [21][24][27]. Lithium Battery Prices - There are charts presenting the price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, cobalt acid lithium cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2025 [30][32][33]. Inventory - Charts show the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links in the lithium carbonate industry from December 2024 to July 2025 [35][37][39]. Production Costs - A chart depicts the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials such as外购三元极片黑粉, 外购磷酸铁锂极片黑粉, lithium mica concentrate, and lithium spodumene concentrate from 2024 to 2025 [39][40]

商 品 研 究 资料来源：国泰君安期货、同花顺、Mysteel、SMM、Fastmarkets 2025 年 7 月 28 日 碳酸锂：周五夜盘商品价格下跌，关注悲观情绪的 传导 邵婉嫕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015722 shaowanyi@gtht.com 刘鸿儒（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03124172 liuhongru@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 碳酸锂基本面数据 | | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 2509合约（收盘价） | 80,520 | 3,840 | 10,560 | 16,240 | 19,640 | 9,060 | | | | 2509合约（成交量） | 1,203,424 | -566,859 | -2,899 | 800,608 | 836,681 | 1,197,050 | | | | 2509合约（持仓量） | 491,088 | 54,361 | 113,783 | 168,228 | 1 ...