格林布拉特在2005年出版了《股市稳赚》一书，将自己的投资经验浓缩为一个简单易懂的"神奇公式"： 从资产收益率高和市盈率低的综合排名中，选择前20-30只股票，形成一个组合，分别买入并持有一年 后卖出。这个公式完全遵从价值投资的本质：用便宜的价格买入好企业。 格林布拉特使用的是EBIT（息税前收益）/EV（市值+净有息负债），得出的结果是一个百分比，他称 之为收益率。可以这样解释，EV代表买下这个企业的总付出（即总市值加上买下企业后需要承担的原 有的债务）。这个百分比说明了这个生意目前买下来，能够给我们带来什么样的回报率。为什么不用 PE（每股收益/股价，或净利润/市值）？因为PE中间关键的每股收益或是净利润，不如息税前收益更能 说明企业总体盈利能力。 多数投资者倾向于通过看PE的高低判断股价的高低，但其实PE的倒数更能说明问题。举例来说，20倍 PE，其倒数为5％，即这只股票的收益率为5％，收回成本要20年。而10倍PE的收益率为10％，收回成 本为10年。10倍PE的收益率已经高于国债长期收益率5％达两倍，股票当然是便宜了。 什么是好企业？ 乔尔·格林布拉特认为，好企业就是资本回报率高（ROIC）的企业。 ...

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of emotional resilience in investing, suggesting that understanding the investment process deeply allows investors to endure market fluctuations and ultimately reap long-term rewards [25][39]. Group 1: Investment Philosophy - Joel Greenblatt, a prominent figure in value investing, highlights the simplicity of buying undervalued, high-return companies, yet notes that many fail to execute this strategy due to emotional resistance against market trends [4][11]. - The concept of a "psychological moat" is introduced, which refers to the mental strength derived from deep understanding and experience, crucial for enduring market volatility [6][19]. - Greenblatt's "magic formula" for investing focuses on selecting companies with high profitability and low valuation, which he believes is statistically advantageous over the long term [12][14]. Group 2: Market Behavior and Investor Psychology - The article discusses the challenge of buying companies that the market currently undervalues, as this often requires going against prevailing market sentiment [10][11]. - It is noted that many investors struggle to maintain their strategies during periods of underperformance, leading to doubts about their methods [5][15]. - The importance of a long-term perspective is emphasized, with Greenblatt suggesting that true patience in investing often requires a time horizon of at least three years, if not longer [15][16]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - Greenblatt shares insights on the transition from "special situation" investments to more systematic, diversified strategies as his fund grew, indicating the limitations of smaller-scale opportunities in larger capital contexts [61][64]. - The article also touches on the multi-strategy approach, combining long and short positions, which can be effective in volatile markets but requires careful risk management [75][78]. - A historical example illustrates the potential for significant returns following periods of underperformance, reinforcing the idea that market valuations can deviate significantly from intrinsic values [86].

Core Insights - The company, Yongtai Energy Group Co., Ltd., has experienced a significant decline in revenue and net profit in Q3 2025, with total revenue of 17.728 billion yuan, down 20.77% year-on-year, and net profit of 390 million yuan, down 78.47% year-on-year [1][2]. Financial Performance - The company's operating revenue for Q3 2025 was 17.728 billion yuan, compared to 22.375 billion yuan in the same period last year, reflecting a 20.77% decrease [2]. - The net profit for Q3 2025 was 390 million yuan, a substantial drop from 1.813 billion yuan in the previous year, marking a 78.47% decline [2]. - The main business profit for Q3 2025 was 674 million yuan, down 72.76% from 2.474 billion yuan in the same period last year [4]. Reasons for Profit Decline - The decline in net profit is attributed to a significant drop in main business profit, which was 674 million yuan this quarter compared to 2.474 billion yuan last year, a decrease of 72.76% [3][4]. - The gross margin for the current period was 20.71%, down 5.22% year-on-year, contributing to the overall profit decline [4]. Industry Analysis - Yongtai Energy operates in the comprehensive energy sector, focusing on coal mining and electricity supply. The industry has faced challenges due to environmental policies and energy transition, leading to a slowdown in traditional coal demand [5]. - The future trend in the industry is shifting towards clean energy, with expectations that by 2030, the share of new energy installations will exceed 50% [5]. Market Position - Yongtai Energy is a significant supplier in the domestic coking coal sector, ranking among the top 15 in terms of thermal coal production capacity, with over 60% of its revenue coming from electricity [5]. - The company holds a regional energy supply advantage but has a national market share of less than 3% [5]. Competitor Analysis - In Q3 2025, Yongtai Energy ranked 3065th in operational scoring, while it ranked 5th in the coking coal industry [6]. - As of September 24, 2025, Yongtai Energy's rolling revenue over the past twelve months was 28.4 billion yuan, placing it 5th globally in the coking coal sector [7]. Financial Metrics Comparison - Among five companies analyzed, Yongtai Energy has the lowest research and development expense ratio at 0.43%, while Huai Bei Mining has the highest at 4.68% [9]. - The company's price-to-earnings ratio (PE-TTM) as of November 14, 2025, was 132.61, significantly higher than the industry average of 33.71 [10].

Core Insights - The company, Yongtai Energy Group Co., Ltd., has experienced a significant decline in revenue and net profit in Q3 2025, with total revenue of 17.728 billion yuan, down 20.77% year-on-year, and net profit of 390 million yuan, down 78.47% year-on-year [1][2]. Financial Performance - The company's operating revenue for Q3 2025 was 17.728 billion yuan, compared to 22.375 billion yuan in the same period last year, reflecting a decrease of 20.77% [2]. - The net profit for Q3 2025 was 390 million yuan, down from 1.813 billion yuan in the previous year, marking a substantial decline of 78.47% [2]. - The main business profit for Q3 2025 was 674 million yuan, a significant drop of 72.76% from 2.474 billion yuan in the same period last year [4]. Reasons for Decline - The decline in net profit is attributed to a substantial decrease in main business profit, which was 674 million yuan this quarter compared to 2.474 billion yuan last year, alongside a reduction in operating revenue [3][4]. - The gross profit margin for the current period was 20.71%, down 5.22% year-on-year, contributing to the overall decline in profitability [4]. Industry Analysis - Yongtai Energy operates in the comprehensive energy sector, primarily focusing on coal mining and electricity supply. The industry has faced challenges due to environmental policies and energy transition, leading to a slowdown in traditional coal demand [5]. - The company is a significant supplier in the domestic coking coal sector, ranking among the top 15 in coal production capacity, with over 60% of its revenue derived from electricity [5]. - The future trend in the industry is shifting towards clean energy transition, with expectations that by 2030, renewable energy installed capacity will exceed 50% [5]. Market Position - Yongtai Energy holds a regional energy supply advantage but has a national market share of less than 3%, placing it in the mid-tier of the industry [5]. - As of September 24, 2025, the company's rolling revenue over the past twelve months was 28.4 billion yuan, ranking 5th in both the global and national coking coal industry [7]. Competitor Analysis - In terms of financial metrics, Yongtai Energy has the lowest research and development expense ratio among its peers at 0.43%, while Huabei Mining has the highest at 4.68% [9]. - The company's PE-TTM as of November 14, 2025, was 132.61, significantly higher than the industry average of 33.71, indicating a high valuation relative to its peers [11].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current bullish market in Hong Kong and emphasizes the importance of learning from successful investors like Joel Greenblatt, particularly his "magic formula" for stock selection [3][4]. Group 1: Joel Greenblatt and Gotham Capital - Joel Greenblatt founded Gotham Capital in 1985, achieving an annualized return of 50% in the first ten years, compared to Warren Buffett's 25% during the same period [5]. - Over a 20-year period from 1985 to 2006, Gotham Capital maintained an impressive annualized compound return of 40% [5]. - Greenblatt's influence extends beyond his fund's performance; he established the Value Investors Club and teaches value investing at Columbia University [8][9]. Group 2: Efficient Market Hypothesis - The article critiques the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH), which suggests that all available information is reflected in stock prices, arguing that this does not align with reality [14][15]. - Greenblatt challenges the notion of market efficiency by demonstrating price volatility in stable companies, indicating that markets can be inefficient [16]. Group 3: The Magic Formula - Greenblatt's "magic formula" is a stock selection method that focuses on buying good companies at discounted prices, utilizing two main filters: earnings yield and return on invested capital (ROIC) [17][18]. - The first filter assesses company valuation through earnings yield, while the second filter identifies quality companies based on their ROIC [18][19]. - The process involves selecting companies with a minimum market capitalization of $50 million, excluding utility and financial stocks, and then applying the two filters to identify potential investments [19][20]. Group 4: Implementation and Data Selection - The implementation of the magic formula involves regularly buying a diversified portfolio of 20 to 30 stocks over a period of three to five years [21][22]. - Greenblatt emphasizes using last year's data for the magic formula, arguing that it provides reliable insights for selecting a basket of companies despite individual fluctuations [24][25]. Group 5: Longevity of the Strategy - The article notes that the magic formula may not work consistently every year, with periods of underperformance that can lead investors to abandon the strategy [26][27]. - Greenblatt asserts that the effectiveness of value investing relies on its inconsistency, which prevents it from being arbitraged away [29][30].

Core Viewpoint - The importance of emotional resilience in investing is emphasized, suggesting that understanding the market and maintaining patience can lead to significant long-term returns [1][24]. Group 1: Investment Philosophy - Joel Greenblatt advocates for a systematic value strategy, focusing on buying companies with high profitability and low valuations, referred to as the "magic formula" [2][12]. - The challenge in this strategy lies in its contrarian nature, requiring investors to buy when the market sentiment is negative [3][19]. - Greenblatt introduces the concept of a "psychological moat," which is built on deep understanding and experience, rather than just intelligence [5][6]. Group 2: Market Behavior and Investor Psychology - Many investors struggle to stick to a strategy during market downturns, often doubting their methods when faced with underperformance compared to popular stocks [4][16]. - The necessity of a long-term perspective is highlighted, with successful investors needing to maintain patience over extended periods, often beyond three years [17][18]. - Emotional resilience is crucial; investors must accept that market fluctuations are normal and prepare to endure periods of underperformance [24][33]. Group 3: Investment Strategies and Techniques - Greenblatt discusses the importance of understanding company valuations and having a diversified portfolio to mitigate risks [28][30]. - He emphasizes that successful investing requires a clear understanding of a company's future earnings potential, integrating both growth and value perspectives [36][38]. - The discussion includes the transition from special situation investments to more systematic strategies, reflecting changes in market conditions and fund sizes [46][49]. Group 4: Practical Insights and Recommendations - Greenblatt shares insights on the difficulties of executing multi-strategy approaches, particularly in volatile markets, and the importance of risk management [55][57]. - He advises against easily replicating complex strategies without a solid understanding of the underlying principles and risks involved [58][59]. - The current market environment is characterized by extreme valuations, presenting opportunities for those who can identify undervalued stocks [60].

Core Viewpoint - Joel Greenblatt is a prominent figure in value investing, known for his unique blend of investment practice, academic teaching, and thought leadership. He achieved remarkable returns through Gotham Capital and later transitioned to Gotham Asset Management, promoting a systematic value strategy known as the "Magic Formula" [1][2]. Group 1: Investment Philosophy and Approach - Greenblatt exemplifies a rational approach to market analysis, focusing on logic to achieve returns. His investment story involving a bank stock highlights the importance of structural undervaluation and the potential of unconventional investors [2][3]. - The narrative emphasizes that good investments do not depend on the investor's background, encouraging a focus on financial analysis and logical reasoning [2]. Group 2: Case Study of Hudson City Bank - In August 1999, Greenblatt and a supermarket employee identified Hudson City Bank as a unique investment opportunity due to its complex capital structure and the lack of market interest [10][12]. - Hudson City Bank was transitioning from a mutual bank to a publicly traded entity, allowing depositors to purchase shares during its IPO. This two-step conversion process provided a potential for significant value appreciation [14][15][20]. - The bank's initial public offering sold 47% of its shares, with the remaining 53% held by a mutual holding company (MHC), which could later sell its shares without diluting existing shareholders [20][21]. - The bank demonstrated strong financial metrics, including high return on equity (ROE) and return on assets (ROA), with a consistent increase in net income and efficiency ratios [24][26][28]. - Greenblatt and the supermarket employee's investment in Hudson City Bank resulted in an impressive 829% increase in stock price over four years, showcasing the effectiveness of their analysis and investment strategy [31]. Group 3: Value Investor Club - The success of the Hudson City Bank investment inspired Greenblatt to establish the Value Investors Club, a platform for like-minded investors to share insights based on logic rather than background [33][34]. - The club has produced notable investors, including Michael Burry, who gained recognition for his independent analysis and investment acumen [35][36]. - The story illustrates that alpha can originate from any source, reinforcing the idea that diligent analysis and logical reasoning are key to successful investing [37].