专题：第20届中国保险创新论坛 2025年12月17日下午，在第20届中国保险创新论坛的圆桌对话环节，中国社会保障学会商业保险研究分 会会长王绪瑾，德华安顾人寿保险有限公司副总经理、首席个险渠道官、中介渠道业务管理责任人刘剑 锋，长城人寿保险股份有限公司总经理助理、董事会秘书张玉璐，国富人寿保险股份有限公司副总经 理、董事会秘书刘先云，东吴人寿保险股份有限公司总裁助理兼苏州分公司总经理陈海燕，长城保险经 纪有限公司董事长申河围绕"构建保险+生态模式，如何控制合理边界"这一主题展开了激烈讨论。中汇 人寿保险股份有限公司上海分公司总经理王东担任主持。 嘉宾们探讨了在构建"保险+"生态模式的实践中，我们的"能力圈"与"生态圈"该如何界定与协同？我们 如何构建既能开放共享、又能防火隔离的"数据与合规"护城河？以及在"利他共赢"的生态中，我们如何 确保价值分配的公平性与可持续性？ 王绪瑾：以能力圈为根基，以生态圈为场景 "构建保险+生态模式，如何控制合理边界？"这是一个很好的选题。战略边界的核心逻辑是以能力圈为 根基，以生态圈为场景，协同核心是能力输出与场景的反哺。界定与协同的本质是不脱离自身核心能力 去盲目扩张生态， ...

来源：市场资讯 作者 | 李白玉 如何利用市场波动，而非被市场波动利用？ 2025年即将收官。这一年里，95岁的沃伦·巴菲特正式宣布退休、结束对伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司长达60年 的掌舵，大概是全年投资日历中不能忽略的大事件。一个时代的投资传奇悄然谢幕，但他倡导并践行一 生的价值投资理念，却愈发闪耀出智慧的光芒。 从1965年接手市值仅470万美元的濒临破产纺织厂，到打造出市值万亿美元的投资帝国，巴菲特用一生 证明了价值投资的力量。伯克希尔股价累计涨幅超5.5万倍，年化复合收益率19.9%，这一业绩前无古 人，后面可能也很难有来者。 图源：罐头图库 在信息爆炸、市场情绪极易失控的今天，投资比以往任何时候都更需要冷静、耐心与远见。巴菲特的智 慧，或许能够带来一丝启迪。 来源 | 野马财经 这方面，基金评级是一个很好的评价标准，既是投资者筛选好基金的重要工具，又是基金公司、基金经 理投资行为的约束器。 利用市场波动 而非被市场波动所利用 巴菲特有句名言："短期来看，股市是一台投票机。然而，从长远来看，它是一台称重机。"这一认知构 成了巴菲特能够利用市场波动，而非被市场波动利用的基石。 在巴菲特看来，市场情绪波动是朋友 ...

说到做投资，常常有人会说，都是聪明的人做投资做得好，智商不够高的人做投资，肯定是赔钱。 但是巴菲特却告诉我们；成功的投资并不需要太聪明，投资并不是高智商的游戏。只要遵循一定的投资 法则，克服人性的贪婪和恐惧，坚持价值投资，每个人都可能实现成功投资。 你要了解哪些事情是自己可以做到，哪些是无力做到的。这并不复杂，你不需要有很高的智商来进行投 资，但必须有情感的控制。很聪明的人有时候会做一些很愚蠢的事情，避免'自我摧毁'就好了。"这段 话听起来很简单，但是里面却隐藏着巴菲特成功的秘密，那么普通人又怎么才能在投资上取得成功呢？ 首先，要找到自己的能力圈，在能力圈内进行投资。巴菲特说过我们都要在自己能力圈内做投资，不去 投资自己看不懂、看不明白的公司，就像巴菲特当年始终没有投科技股，虽然错过了2000年互联网的新 浪潮，但也成功躲过了随后的互联网泡沫破裂。古人云："知人者智，自知者明"，就是这个道理。 其次，要学会控制自己的感情，不要让自己的情绪影响投资。股市的波动是难免的，当你看好一只股 票，就应该坚定持有，保持耐心，而不应该因为短期的波动而做出一时冲动的投资决策。有些人虽然很 聪明，但是可能控制情绪的能力很差，大 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the interconnectedness of business and investment, highlighting that understanding one enhances the comprehension of the other. It advocates for defining one's "circle of competence" and staying within it to make informed investment decisions [5][12][30]. Group 1: Circle of Competence - Warren Buffett stresses the importance of identifying and operating within one's circle of competence, using the example of Mrs. Blumkin, who successfully ran a furniture business by only engaging in areas she understood [9][19][22]. - Many CEOs of large companies often lack experience in capital allocation, leading to poor acquisition decisions when they venture outside their expertise [10][24][25]. - The article suggests that having fewer but more informed investment opportunities can lead to better outcomes, contrasting this with the prevalent culture on Wall Street that encourages frequent trading [11][32][36]. Group 2: Investment Philosophy - The investment approach advocated is to focus on high-quality businesses and to wait patiently for clear opportunities, rather than being swayed by market noise [30][36][60]. - The article discusses the advantages of owning a portion of a great business, like Coca-Cola, rather than seeking to acquire entire companies, which often leads to overpaying in competitive bidding situations [36][39][44]. - It highlights the importance of investing one’s own capital, as seen in Berkshire Hathaway, where management invests a significant portion of their wealth, aligning their interests with those of shareholders [39][40]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The article critiques the modern investment theory that equates price volatility with risk, arguing that buying undervalued assets can be safer than overpaying for perceived stability [75][78]. - It points out the challenges of global competition and the risks associated with investing in foreign markets, emphasizing a preference for companies registered in the U.S. [81][83]. - The discussion includes the notion that successful investments often come from understanding the underlying business rather than relying on market trends or speculation [57][60].

继续缩量，看来反攻真可能结束了，今天是第三天，没啥奇迹。 我之前低位没动手，现在更不会动手。不在最好的地方下手，就可能随便下手，结果就是持续亏钱。 近期很多朋友后天跟我们反馈，不在能力圈范围内做，真的容易亏钱。但就是控制不住自己，怎么办？ 最好的方式是用一个便签把自己能力圈写出来，然后挂在电脑前，持续练习，否则散户没有任何机会。 板块上： 第一：半导体小幅反攻 明天摩尔就要上市，同时也是另一个GPU龙头申购的日子。近期大A的半导体好不热闹。 但你们细看过他们的主业、收入、估值吗？估计要被吓一跳。范围作为一个专业干这行的人，我是无法想象的。 大家好好玩，我先看为敬。 第二：白酒继续大跌 以上仅为个人看法，不作为任何建议！ 第三：证券反攻了 不知道是好事还是坏事，反正没有继续做成持续向下的动作。 9月29日的大涨，大家应该还记得吧？当时有多开心，现在就有多懊恼。所以为何炒股很多人都失败了？ 因为他们太贪了，真的太贪了。一不小心就贪，不是故意的。 加油！ 我是李聪，10年读书会主理人，学到老、活到老，关注我，一起向上成长！ 我猜一下，龙头茅子的股价能够跌破1400块，什么时候我不知道，但这几乎是一个螺旋向下的循环， ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that successful investing is not about being the smartest but about adhering to fundamental principles of value investing, which allows investors to avoid the pitfalls of competing with more intelligent market players [2][6]. Group 1: Value Investing Principles - Value investing is a win-win strategy that avoids competition with other investors, focusing instead on fundamental growth rather than market timing [6]. - Long-term tracking and research of companies within one's "circle of competence" can lead to better investment outcomes, as demonstrated by the performance of long-term bull stocks in the A-share market [2][7]. - The article highlights that the growth in earnings per share (EPS) of long-term bull stocks is primarily driven by fundamental improvements rather than valuation expansion [7]. Group 2: Historical Performance of Bull Stocks - The article provides data on several companies that have shown significant growth in EPS over the past 20 years: - Fuyao Glass: EPS increased from 0.39 CNY in 2004 to 2.87 CNY in 2024, a growth of 6.36 times, with total dividends of 14.85 CNY per share [7][8]. - Huayu Automotive: EPS grew from 0.22 CNY to 2.12 CNY, an increase of 8.59 times, with total dividends of 10.99 CNY per share [7][9]. - Changjiang Electric Power: EPS rose from 0.39 CNY to 1.33 CNY, a growth of 2.43 times, with total dividends of 10.05 CNY per share [7][9]. - The article includes a detailed table of various long-term bull stocks, showcasing their EPS growth and total dividends over the past two decades [8][9].

Core Viewpoint - The investment philosophy of Duan Yongping emphasizes integrating business logic into financial thinking, focusing on rationality and a calm mindset to navigate market volatility [2][16]. Group 1: Investment Principles - "Benfen" (本分) refers to returning to the essence of things, meaning that investing is fundamentally about buying companies, not just stocks [5][4]. - "Pingchangxin" (平常心) serves as a psychological armor against market fluctuations, allowing investors to assess risks and values without being swayed by market emotions [7][17]. - The investment approach is characterized by a long-term perspective, where the focus is on companies with strong competitive advantages that can generate sustainable cash flow over time [8][11]. Group 2: Business Understanding - Duan Yongping's investment strategy prioritizes understanding the business model over mere financial calculations, emphasizing the importance of a company's long-term future [8][9]. - He seeks companies with strong "moats," which can be derived from unique product experiences or cultural significance, ensuring long-term profitability [8][9]. - The investment process involves deep engagement with the company's products and culture, as well as evaluating management's alignment with shareholder interests [8][9]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - Duan Yongping advocates for a concentrated investment strategy, focusing on a small number of companies within his "circle of competence" to ensure a deep understanding of each investment [12][14]. - He believes that true investment opportunities are rare and emphasizes the importance of saying "no" to opportunities outside his expertise [12][14]. - The strategy involves holding investments for the long term, with minimal selling unless the fundamental nature of the company changes [9][24]. Group 4: Case Studies - The investment in NetEase during its crisis in 2001 exemplifies a contrarian approach, where Duan recognized the underlying value despite market panic [27]. - The long-term holding of Moutai showcases the importance of brand scarcity and stable demand, leading to significant returns over 17 years [28][29]. - The investment in Tencent during a market downturn illustrates the strategy of capitalizing on short-term mispricing due to market sentiment [30][31].

Core Insights - Warren Buffett, at 95 years old, announced his retirement from writing Berkshire Hathaway's annual report and speaking at shareholder meetings, marking the end of an era in Wall Street history [6][5] - Buffett's legacy includes a remarkable investment philosophy developed over more than half a century, alongside a wealth myth that transformed a near-bankrupt textile company into a trillion-dollar giant [8][5] Transition of Leadership - Buffett will officially hand over the CEO role to 63-year-old Greg Abel by the end of the year, while he will remain as chairman until shareholders establish trust in Abel [6] - The transition includes Buffett's decision to stop writing the annual shareholder letter and stepping down from the main stage at shareholder meetings [6] - Buffett's commitment to retain enough Class A shares until shareholders trust Abel as they do him and Charlie Munger [6] Financial Performance - Since Buffett took over Berkshire Hathaway in 1965, the company has achieved a staggering total return of over 55,000 times, meaning an initial investment of $10,000 in 1965 would be worth $5.5 billion today [8] - The annualized compound return from 1965 to 2024 is 19.9%, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's 10.4% during the same period [8] Investment Strategy - Buffett's investment strategy evolved from "cigar butt" investing to focusing on companies with strong brand power and pricing power, exemplified by his acquisition of See's Candies in 1972 and Coca-Cola in 1988 [8] - The top 10 holdings, including Apple and Bank of America, have contributed $255.8 billion in profits, accounting for 80% of Berkshire's total returns [8] Insurance and Investment Model - Buffett describes Berkshire's insurance business as the "soul" of the company, with the acquisition of National Indemnity in 1967 marking the beginning of his wealth empire [10] - The "float" from insurance premiums allows for long-term investments, creating a "no-cost" investment model that has grown from millions to hundreds of billions [10][11] - The synergy between insurance and investment is illustrated by the turnaround of GEICO, which provided continuous float for further investments [11] Risk Management Philosophy - Buffett's approach to risk management emphasizes maintaining a cash buffer for extreme risks, as demonstrated during the 2008 financial crisis when Berkshire had hundreds of billions in cash to capitalize on market opportunities [12] - The current cash reserve of $381.7 billion is not seen as conservative but as a necessary cushion for unforeseen disasters [12] Investment Wisdom - Buffett's investment philosophy includes principles such as staying within one's "circle of competence," practicing contrarian investing, and maintaining a long-term perspective [14][15][16] - He advises against investing in areas outside one's understanding, emphasizing the importance of patience and rationality in investment decisions [14][16] - Buffett's legacy is not just in financial returns but in a replicable mindset that values rationality and common sense in the face of market noise [17]

Core Insights - Warren Buffett's decision to "quietly exit" marks the end of an era in the investment world, having transformed Berkshire Hathaway from a struggling textile company into a multi-billion dollar investment empire over 60 years [1] - His investment philosophy emphasizes value, patience, and respect, rather than short-term speculation [1] Investment Philosophy - The concept of "circle of competence" is central to Buffett's investment strategy, focusing only on areas he understands, avoiding blind diversification [2] - Buffett's significant investments, such as the $13 billion purchase of Coca-Cola stock in 1988, were based on the company's strong brand and consumer loyalty rather than just financial metrics [2] - His investment in Apple was driven by observing consumer behavior rather than technical details, highlighting the importance of user engagement [2] Risk Management - Buffett's principle of "circle of competence" reflects a clear understanding of "unknown risks," emphasizing that many investment losses stem from overestimating one's judgment in unfamiliar areas [3] - His approach to investing during market crises, such as the 2008 financial crisis, showcases his ability to act decisively while maintaining a strong cash reserve, which amounted to $189 billion as of Q1 2024 [4] Long-Term Investment Strategy - The power of compounding is evident in Buffett's wealth accumulation, with 90% of his fortune made after age 60, demonstrating the effectiveness of long-term holding [5] - Buffett's investment returns have significantly outperformed the S&P 500, with a nearly 20% annualized return since 1965, turning an initial $1,000 investment into $44.7 million [5] - His philosophy of holding stocks for the long term is exemplified by his investments in American Express and Coca-Cola, which he has held for over 30 years [5] Personal Philosophy and Legacy - Buffett's personal life reflects simplicity and discipline, living in the same house since 1958 and maintaining a modest lifestyle despite immense wealth [8] - His commitment to philanthropy is evident in his plan to donate 99.5% of his wealth, leaving only enough for his children to lead fulfilling lives [8] - The wisdom he imparts emphasizes rationality, patience, and responsibility in both investing and life, encouraging individuals to adopt a straightforward investment approach [8]

Core Insights - Warren Buffett, at 95, announced his retirement from daily management of Berkshire Hathaway, marking the end of a 60-year investment era and presenting a significant test for his successors and the value investment philosophy [1][2] Investment Performance - Since its first investment in 1962, Berkshire Hathaway has grown into a diversified holding company with a market value exceeding $1 trillion, achieving a total return of 5,502,284% from 1964 to 2024, compared to the S&P 500's 39,054% during the same period [2] - Buffett's long-standing commitment to value investing is highlighted as particularly valuable in the current market environment characterized by speculative assets [2] Evolution of Investment Philosophy - Buffett's investment philosophy evolved through three distinct phases: - Early Stage (1949-1971): Focused on "cigar butt" investments, seeking stocks priced significantly below their intrinsic value [3] - Mid Stage (1972-1989): Shifted towards assessing the intrinsic quality and long-term competitiveness of companies, exemplified by the acquisition of See's Candies [3] - Late Stage (1990-Present): Introduced the "moat" concept, emphasizing the importance of long-term competitive advantages in investment decisions [3] Market Caution - Buffett's retirement signals a cautious stance towards the current U.S. stock market, as evidenced by Berkshire's record cash reserves of $381.7 billion and a trend of net stock sales over the past 12 quarters, raising over $6 billion in cash in Q3 alone [5] - The market valuation metric, the ratio of total market capitalization of publicly traded stocks to U.S. GDP, has reached historical highs, which Buffett previously described as "playing with fire" [5] Leadership Transition - Greg Abel is set to succeed Buffett as CEO, with Buffett praising his management skills and work ethic; however, market skepticism remains, as Berkshire's stock has declined over 10% since the succession announcement [7] - The company has recently received a rare "sell" rating from Keefe, Bruyette & Woods, citing several unfavorable factors impacting its outlook [7] Influence in China - Buffett's limited but impactful investments in China, including stakes in PetroChina and BYD, have left a lasting legacy, with significant returns on both investments [8][9] - His value investing philosophy has profoundly influenced Chinese investors, with many adopting his principles of "circle of competence," "margin of safety," and "long-term holding" [9] Future of Value Investing - Despite Buffett's retirement, the principles of value investing are expected to persist, although their application may evolve under Abel's leadership, with Berkshire's substantial cash reserves poised for future acquisitions [10] - Buffett's legacy as a legendary investor will continue to shape the investment landscape, emphasizing the importance of adapting investment strategies to changing market conditions [10]