又见久期行情极致演绎。 中债 10 年以上隐含评级 AA+全价指数近一周涨幅达到 0.9%，月内累计涨幅高达 1.5%。另一方面，交易所超长信用债 表现亦不俗，中证信用债 7 年至 10 年 AAA 等级指数周度涨幅在 0.43%。 本轮超长信用债如何被炒作？ 首先从银行间样本来观察，有四点特征：1）抢配节奏显著加快，成交收益下行幅度加大，2）20 年至 30 年活跃交易 信用债主体，银行间存量券 6 月单月平均涨幅在 2%至 3%之间，3）5 年 AA+城投债策略在最近两周持续跑赢其他组合， 4）成交量进一步印证炒作逻辑。其次，交易所抢配信用债同样强劲，值得注意的是，本轮行情有交易所超长信用债联 动银行间个券的特征。 两个市场，行情触发点不同。 截至 6 月 20 日，1 年以上信用债 63%存量规模集中在 2%以下，而 1 月初水平约在 59%，要在 2%以上做收益，势必要在 中长久期资产布局。银行间和交易所同时演绎久期行情，逻辑是否一致？一方面，从银行间 7 年以上信用债净买入交 易对手来看，保险和基金是主力。其中，基金近两周净买入规模持续增长，单周读数超过 73 亿，超过保险的边际增 量。另一方面，交 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the current bond market, short - term credit bond yield decline and spread narrowing space are limited. Traders can wait for a better position after market adjustment to participate in the game, and currently focus on certain coupon opportunities and consider allocation from the perspective of absolute yield [3][27] - Different investment strategies should be adopted according to the stability of the liability side. For those with weak liability - side stability, focus on 2 - 3y medium - and low - grade varieties and some 4 - 5y high - coupon, medium - quality individual bonds; for those with strong liability - side stability, allocate 4 - 5y varieties [3][4][27] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. How to Allocate Credit Bonds after a Significant Narrowing of Spreads (1) Credit Bond Market Review - This week, the capital price was low at first and then high. The Sino - US economic and trade joint statement significantly reduced bilateral tax rates, boosting risk appetite. Under the stock - bond seesaw effect, the bond market was under pressure. Interest - rate bond yields rose across the board, while credit bond yields showed a differentiated trend and performed better than interest - rate bonds. Bank secondary and perpetual bonds with significantly narrowed spreads performed weakly, with yields rising slightly and spreads narrowing passively. The yields of other credit varieties generally declined for 1 - 4y and rose for 5 - 15y, with spreads narrowing significantly for 1 - 4y and passively narrowing for 5 - 15y, with a smaller narrowing amplitude at the long end [1][11] (2) Credit Strategy: Focus on Certain Coupon Opportunities - **Current Credit Spread Level**: 1 - 2y variety spreads have been compressed to an extreme level, while the medium - and long - term spreads still have some room compared to last year's lowest point. In a volatile bond market environment, the further compression space of credit spreads may be relatively limited [14][24] - **Current Credit Bond Yield Level**: Currently, the yields of various credit varieties can generally achieve positive carry. Different varieties have different yield levels compared to R007 [25] II. Key Policies and Hot Events - On May 15th, the General Office of the Communist Party of China Central Committee issued the "Opinions on Continuously Promoting Urban Renewal Actions", which mentioned improving diversified investment and financing methods and encouraging financial institutions to participate in urban renewal [33] - On May 15th, Vanke announced that its major shareholder, Shenzhen Metro Group, would provide a loan of up to 1.552 billion yuan to the company to repay the principal and interest of bonds issued in the public market [33] - On May 13th, seven departments jointly issued policies to include high - quality enterprise science and technology innovation bonds in the benchmark market - making varieties to improve their liquidity [34] III. Secondary Market - This week, credit bond yields showed a differentiated trend, and credit spreads generally narrowed. Different types of bonds, such as urban investment bonds, real - estate bonds, cyclical bonds, and financial bonds, had different yield and spread changes [36][37] IV. Primary Market - This week, the issuance scale of credit bonds was 122.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 47.5 billion yuan compared to the previous week, and the net financing amount was - 15.7 billion yuan, a decrease of 19.7 billion yuan compared to the previous week. The issuance scale of urban investment bonds was 30.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 50.9 billion yuan compared to the previous week, and the net financing amount was - 24.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.4 billion yuan compared to the previous week [6] V. Trading Liquidity - This week, the trading activity in the inter - bank market and the exchange market of credit bonds increased. The trading volume in the inter - bank market increased from 432 billion yuan last week to 550.1 billion yuan, and the trading volume in the exchange market increased from 234.1 billion yuan last week to 336.2 billion yuan [6] VI. Rating Adjustment - This week, there were 2 entities with downgraded ratings and 3 entities with upgraded ratings [6]

中短债打开上涨空间，但配置行为克制。 为应对全球经济不确定性及贸易局势紧张，央行"推出一揽子货币政策措施，主要有三大类共十项措施"，双降时点 意外前置。票息类资产反应迟滞，给做陡收益率曲线提供机会，2 年内信用债成交收益下行幅度均在 5bp 以上，该期 限大行二级资本债收益下行幅度更是接近 10bp。收益下了不少，可买入力度有点克制。一方面，尽管 3 年内一般信用 债成交收益低于估值收益的幅度有扩张，但无论产业债，还是城投债，都不及 4 月上旬的表现。另一方面，不仅是价 格上没有充分体现抢配两字，成交笔数是一体两面。相互印证的是，一般信用债的周度换手率也在往下掉，即便是 3 年内城投债都难以幸免，仅银行次级债维持了较高的活跃度。抢配场景为何难现？首先，中短债收益逼近年内低点， 做多空间相当尴尬。其次，久期太短，收益增厚策略受限。 接下来，会迈向信用债拉久期吗？ 信用债久期策略同样在尴尬期，一是上述交易偏离、换手率等指标，并没有展现出拉信用债久期的意愿，二是收益来 源切换及增量资金逻辑的制约。首先，对于收益来源切换而言，与绝对利率水平过低有关。实际上，目前存量信用债 （不含地产债）进一步朝着 1 月初的水平迈进 ...