Report Information - Report Title: Economic Pressure Emerges, Convergence of High Volatility in Stock Indexes - Company: Shanghai Orient Futures Co., Ltd., Orient Derivatives Research Institute - Analyst: Wang Peicheng, Senior Macro Analyst - Analyst Qualification: F03093911 (Practicing Qualification Number), Z0017305 (Investment Consulting Number) [1] Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - In the fourth quarter, domestic economic pressure will increase, and the annual economic growth rate is expected to be 4.8 - 5%. The inflation trend is upward, with the PPI expected to be -1.9% and the CPI +0.5%. The fiscal deficit rate will continue to rise, and the government will increase spending. The transmission from loose money to loose credit in monetary policy is不畅, and the central bank may cut reserve requirements and interest rates in the fourth quarter. The domestic economy is in a "great differentiation" stage, and the restart of the economic cycle depends on the repair of the private sector's balance sheet. A-share performance has been good since the third quarter, with large sector differentiation. The rise of A-shares is mainly driven by valuation, and the long-term valuation center is declining. The entry of the national team and technological breakthroughs provide positive expected returns for the stock market, and high-risk preference funds are the first to enter the market. In the fourth quarter, the volatility of stock indexes may decrease, and attention should be paid to the opportunities in sub - sectors and sub - industries [4][7][14][62][69] Summary by Directory Fourth - Quarter Domestic Macroeconomic Outlook - **Economic Growth**: Domestic economic indicators have declined significantly since June. The demand - side indicators of social retail and fixed - asset investment are both below 5%, and fixed - asset investment has been negative for three consecutive months. Due to the high GDP growth rate in the fourth quarter of last year, the growth rate in the fourth quarter of this year will be suppressed. The annual economic growth rate is expected to be 4.8 - 5% [7] - **Inflation**: The anti - involution policy's impact on inflation is still in the early stage. Upstream resource industries have improved the most, while mid - and downstream manufacturing industries have shown no obvious improvement. In the fourth quarter, the inflation trend is upward. The narrowing of the tail - end factor forms a low - base effect, the anti - involution policy promotes the marginal improvement of PPI, and consumer subsidies and the winter tourism season boost CPI. The expected PPI in the fourth quarter is -1.9%, the CPI is +0.5%, and the deflator is -0.7%, an increase of about 0.75% compared with the third quarter [8][14] - **Fiscal Policy**: The domestic economy still relies on fiscal support. As of August, fiscal revenue growth has turned positive, and expenditure growth remains high. The average generalized deficit rate in the third quarter was 9.37%, an increase of 0.37% compared with the second quarter. The government bond financing is an important support for fiscal expenditure. The issuance of national bonds this year is earlier, with 1 - 9 months' net financing of 5.4 trillion yuan, accounting for 72.4% of the annual total. The issuance of local bonds is slower, with only 68% of the annual progress completed in the first three quarters, leaving room for acceleration in the fourth quarter. Fiscal expenditure is tilted towards the people's livelihood and consumption fields, and the policy concept is transforming to "investing in people", with the policy structure tilting towards the "demand side" [15][26][30] - **Monetary Policy**: The transmission from loose money to loose credit is不畅. The growth rate of social financing excluding government bonds in the first eight months was only about 6%, and the credit balance growth rate has dropped to 6.8%. There is still a strong need for interest rate cuts. On the one hand, the current loose money in the country has a weak driving effect on credit expansion. On the enterprise side, the real return rate is still declining, and the housing mortgage rate is still relatively high. In the fourth quarter, monetary policy will cooperate with fiscal policy, be precise and targeted. The central bank may cut reserve requirements and interest rates to provide liquidity, and 50 billion yuan of new policy - based financial instruments will be accelerated for establishment and investment [31][38][50] - **Economic Structure**: The domestic economy is in a "great differentiation" stage, with significant differences in nominal and real growth rates at the aggregate level, cycle fluctuations and structural growth at the structural level, and growth rates between traditional and new industries at the industrial level. The restart of the economic cycle depends on the repair of the private sector's balance sheet. Currently, the inventory cycle has a long duration but low height, and the cycle is flattened due to the real - estate market and private - enterprise cash - flow pressure [51][56][57] Fourth - Quarter Stock Index Outlook - **Overall Performance**: Since the third quarter, A - shares have truly outperformed the global market. Although the macro - environment has fluctuated greatly this year, global stock markets have performed well, and A - shares have achieved excess returns since the third quarter [65][69] - **Sector Differentiation**: The trading volume of A - shares has increased, with the 5 - day average turnover exceeding 3 trillion yuan, but it has declined since September. There is large differentiation among sectors, with the difference between the best - performing ChiNext Index and the worst - performing SSE 50 Index reaching nearly 40% [76] - **Deviation from Fundamentals**: The rise of global stock markets is supported by fundamentals, such as the upward - trending manufacturing PMI in four continents. However, China's manufacturing PMI has been below the boom - bust line since April, and macro - indicators have declined in the second quarter. Historically, A - share bull markets have been accompanied by fundamental repairs, and the current ROE of the whole A - share market is flat, while that of the ChiNext and Sci - tech Innovation Board is rebounding [80][85] - **Driving Factors**: The rise of A - shares is mainly driven by valuation. In the third quarter, the expected price - to - earnings ratio has risen significantly and returned to the 2021 level, while the expected profit level has been revised down after the earnings season. In the long term, the valuation center of A - shares is declining, and short - term valuation increases will lead to a greater return to fundamentals in the medium term [86][96] - **Positive Factors**: The entry of the national team and technological breakthroughs in the technology industry provide positive expected returns for the stock market. Residents have about 44.3 trillion yuan in excess deposits. The entry of residents' deposits into the stock market is in the early stage, and high - risk preference funds are the first to enter, such as margin - trading funds. The abnormal increase in non - bank deposits and the rapid expansion of margin - trading balances occurred from July to August [97][108] - **Outlook and Strategy**: In September, the A - share market fluctuated at a high level, and the sector differences further widened. In the fourth quarter, the stock index is in a high - valuation area, and more funds are needed to maintain its strength. The national team will control market fluctuations. The volatility of the stock market will decrease in the fourth quarter, and opportunities in sub - sectors and sub - industries may be boosted by the "15th Five - Year Plan". The Shanghai Composite Index is expected to range from 3674 to 4000 points, corresponding to a space of about [-4%, +4%]. For hedging, short - hedging positions can be gradually opened; for unilateral trading, IF, IC, and IM should be evenly allocated; for arbitrage, a combination of long IM and short IF/IC can be selected [118]

Core Viewpoint - The divergence between money supply and credit is significant, with government departments playing a crucial role in the credit expansion process, leading to an enhanced pricing power of the private sector over assets after new money flows into it [1][8]. Group 1: Social Financing and Credit Data - In July 2025, the growth rate of social financing stock increased to 9.0% from the previous 8.9%, with new social financing amounting to 1.16 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 389.3 billion yuan [2]. - New government debt reached 1.24 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 555.9 billion yuan, while loans (according to social financing standards) decreased by 426.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year reduction of 345.5 billion yuan, with the loan balance dropping to a year-on-year growth of 6.9% from 7.1% [2]. - In July, credit decreased by 50 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 310 billion yuan, indicating a decline in both corporate and household loans [3]. Group 2: Monetary Supply Trends - The M2 growth rate rose to 8.8% from the previous 8.3%, while M1 growth rebounded sharply to 5.6% from 4.6%, primarily due to a low base in the same period of 2024 and increased willingness to settle debts, which supported corporate deposits [3]. - The increase in M2 growth is attributed to a significant rise in residents' risk appetite, with some deposits being "moved" to risk assets amid a bullish stock market [3]. Group 3: Understanding the Divergence - The divergence between money and credit is characterized by the private sector's need to repair balance sheets, with government support for credit expansion playing a vital role [4][8]. - The influx of new money into the private sector has led to a noticeable enhancement in its ability to price assets, creating new monetary phenomena such as early mortgage repayments by residents and the migration of deposits to risk assets [8].

正如我们前期所提示，货币宽松的回摆仍在延续。在稳汇率和保资产价格（股&楼） 的双目标下，信贷弱并非央行降息的充分条件。政策更加重视准备金率的下行空间， 降准将标志着新一轮宽松的起点，但在美国经济"衰退交易"的扰动下，特朗普贸 易政策和美联储决策的不确定性依然较高，这使得政策窗口被延后。 投资要点： | | | | | 021-38038433 | | --- | --- | | | hanchaohui@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 | S0880523110001 | | | 张剑宇(研究助理) | | | 021-38674711 | | | zhangjianyu029568@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 | S0880124030031 | | | 汪浩(分析师) | | | 0755-23976659 | | | wanghao025053@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 | S0880521120002 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 信贷弱并非降息的充分条件 [Table_Authors] 韩朝辉(分析师) ——2025 年 2 月社融数据点评 本报告导读： 通 ...