经济压力显现，股指高波动收敛 上海东证期货有限公司 东证衍生品研究院 王培丞 宏观高级分析师 从业资格号：F03093911 投资咨询号：Z0017305 目录 • 四季度国内宏观展望：考验来临 • 四季度股指展望：高位抉择，轻指数、重结构 王培丞 宏观分析师；从业资格号：F03093911；交易咨询号：Z0017305 四季度国内经济压力加大 图表：国内经济指标增长趋势 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 24/09 24/11 25/02 25/04 25/06 25/08 24/10 24/12 25/03 25/05 25/07 24/09 24/11 25/02 25/04 25/06 25/08 24/10 24/12 25/03 25/05 25/07 24/09 24/11 25/02 25/04 25/06 25/08 24/10 24/12 25/03 25/05 25/07 24/09 24/11 25/02 25/04 25/06 25/08 工业增加值 服务业生产指 数 社零 制造业投资 基建投资 房地产投资 出口 当月同比(%) 累计同比(%) 4.2 4.4 ...

Core Viewpoint - The divergence between money supply and credit is significant, with government departments playing a crucial role in the credit expansion process, leading to an enhanced pricing power of the private sector over assets after new money flows into it [1][8]. Group 1: Social Financing and Credit Data - In July 2025, the growth rate of social financing stock increased to 9.0% from the previous 8.9%, with new social financing amounting to 1.16 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 389.3 billion yuan [2]. - New government debt reached 1.24 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 555.9 billion yuan, while loans (according to social financing standards) decreased by 426.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year reduction of 345.5 billion yuan, with the loan balance dropping to a year-on-year growth of 6.9% from 7.1% [2]. - In July, credit decreased by 50 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 310 billion yuan, indicating a decline in both corporate and household loans [3]. Group 2: Monetary Supply Trends - The M2 growth rate rose to 8.8% from the previous 8.3%, while M1 growth rebounded sharply to 5.6% from 4.6%, primarily due to a low base in the same period of 2024 and increased willingness to settle debts, which supported corporate deposits [3]. - The increase in M2 growth is attributed to a significant rise in residents' risk appetite, with some deposits being "moved" to risk assets amid a bullish stock market [3]. Group 3: Understanding the Divergence - The divergence between money and credit is characterized by the private sector's need to repair balance sheets, with government support for credit expansion playing a vital role [4][8]. - The influx of new money into the private sector has led to a noticeable enhancement in its ability to price assets, creating new monetary phenomena such as early mortgage repayments by residents and the migration of deposits to risk assets [8].