证 券 研 究 报 告 金融工程周报 首批10只科创债ETF上报， 推荐关注半导体ETF 2025年06月22日 n 分析师：吕思江 n 联系人：刘新源 n SAC编号：S1050522030001 n SAC编号：S1050123100011 n 联系人：武文静 n SAC编号：S1050123070007 市场观点和ETF交易机会 PAGE 2 诚信、专业、稳健、高效 请阅读最后一页重要免责声明 p 【国内市场跟踪】本周市场成交1.22万亿，中东冲突升级叠加陆家嘴金融会议无超预期政策下，市场情绪 回落，小微盘展开调整，中证2000及北证50跌幅靠前，小盘交投热度降温，拥挤度下行至正常区间。前 期主线消费及医药跌幅较大，港股创新药本周大跌-8.55%，风格再度回归以银行为核心的红利板块。北京 印发《关于促进北京市游戏电竞行业高质量发展的支持办法（暂行）》，压缩审核周期，加强对出版国产 试点网络游戏的申报辅导，游戏、影视等AI应用端较超预期，tmt接棒表现较好。场内基金本周首批10只 科创债ETF上报。震荡区间下行空间有限，相对看好红利、科创AI、消费。 p 【港股市场】港股情绪面和资金面未出现太大扰动，但市 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a focus on industries with low PB-ROE ratios, particularly financials, computing, defense, pharmaceuticals, and electrical equipment, indicating a potential for undervalued reversals [4][5]. Core Insights - Since April 2025, global trade tariff conflicts have led to significant volatility in capital markets, with markets in Japan, Germany, and the US rising by 5-10% compared to pre-tariff levels, while Chinese asset prices have slightly declined [3][4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of performance benchmarks for public funds, highlighting that financials, dividends, and computing are major underweight sectors [3][4]. - The report identifies a calendar effect where certain sectors like electronics and military are expected to yield higher absolute returns in June and July [3][4]. Summary by Sections Industry Rotation Review and Outlook - Consumer, pharmaceutical, banking, and dividend assets have shown superior performance [12]. Fund Analysis - New regulations for public funds stress the significance of performance benchmarks, with financials, dividends, and computing being the main underweight sectors [3][4]. Market Trading Characteristics - Assets that have seen declines for four consecutive years, such as pharmaceuticals and certain consumer goods, are beginning to stabilize, while real estate and liquor sectors have yet to show improvement [3][4]. Economic Conditions, Valuation, and Capital Chips - The current PB-ROE framework favors industries poised for undervalued reversals, including financials, computing, defense, pharmaceuticals, and electrical equipment [4][5]. Industry Policies - The report discusses ongoing policies aimed at stabilizing capital markets, boosting consumption, and addressing internal competition, with a focus on new productivity [4][5]. 2025 Industry Allocation - The report provides a detailed allocation table for the second half of 2025, indicating sectors with potential for absolute returns [12].