纽约联储的月度报告显示，消费者对未来一年的通胀预期维持在 3.2% 附近，长期预期也未出现明显波 动。同时，家庭对一年后就业的乐观程度有所改善。但现实状况相对"冷"：更多家庭认为财务状况较去 年更差，形成"预期改善 + 当前承压"并存的状态。如果 ADP、JOLTS 等就业数据继续表现不一，市场 对未来政策路径的解读仍可能随着数据快速切换。 最高法院对于总统解职权的讨论引发市场关注。若出现扩大行政权力的倾向，将强化外界对美联储独立 性的担忧，提高政策沟通敏感度。此外，美乌、美俄之间的互动仍带来一定风险情绪，但对黄金的短线 提振有限。总体来看，制度与地缘因素正在放大市场对消息面的敏感度。 区间优先：短线关注 4170–4220 区间，震荡概率大，在政策给出明确信号前不宜追涨或大幅做空。 聚焦新闻发布会与点阵图：点阵图与对未来降息节奏的措辞将决定美元与黄金的短线方向。 周二亚洲交易时段，黄金从周初高位小幅回落，短线跌破 4200 美元关口，在 4195 美元附近整理。尽管 市场基本将本周美联储降息 25 个基点视为大概率事件，但交易员开始担心美联储在降息后释放偏谨慎 的信号，即所谓"鹰派降息"——这可能导致美元与 ...

Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds target rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.00%-4.25%[2] - The decision aligns with market expectations and reflects a "prudent easing" policy stance[3] Economic Outlook - The U.S. GDP growth rate for the first half of the year was approximately 1.5%, down from 2.5% in the same period last year[5] - Consumer spending has shown signs of weakness, while investment in equipment and intangibles has improved[5] - The median GDP growth forecast for 2025 is 1.6%, significantly lower than the 2024 level[7] Employment Trends - Non-farm payrolls have averaged only 29,000 new jobs over the past three months, well below the break-even level needed to maintain stable unemployment[8] - The unemployment rate is projected to be 4.5% this year, with a gradual decline expected thereafter[12] Inflation Concerns - The PCE index rose by 2.7% year-on-year in August, with core PCE at 2.9%, indicating persistent inflationary pressures[13] - The Fed's cautious language regarding inflation reflects heightened sensitivity to rising price levels[13] Political Influences - Political pressure from former President Trump has become a significant variable affecting Fed policy, with calls for more aggressive rate cuts[15] - The appointment of Miran to the Fed Board is seen as a move to strengthen Trump's influence within the Fed[16] Asset Management - The Fed will continue its balance sheet reduction at a pace of $40 billion per month, with no changes to the current schedule[19] - The overall asset balance of the Fed has been gradually declining, with total assets at approximately $6.61 trillion as of September 10, 2025[24]

Group 1 - The event "Beijing Public Fund High-Quality Development Series Activities" was launched to promote high-quality development in the public fund sector, guided by the Beijing Securities Regulatory Bureau [3] - The theme of the event is "New Era, New Fund, New Value," aiming to implement the action plan for promoting high-quality development of public funds [3] - Zhongjia Fund actively responded to regulatory calls and participated in the 2025 China International Service Trade Fair, receiving the title of "Best Cooperation Partner in Financial Services" [5] Group 2 - Zhongjia Fund held a technology financial investment strategy sharing session themed "Smart Enjoyment of the Future with New AI," featuring insights from fund managers on specialized and innovative technology sectors [7] - The company is focusing on the "specialized, refined, distinctive, and innovative" track, building a product system covering high-end manufacturing, technological innovation, and emerging consumption [8] - Zhongjia Fund aims to enhance investor returns and share the growth dividends of the technology industry while supporting hard technology enterprises [8]

Group 1 - The core theme of the event is "New Era, New Fund, New Value," aimed at promoting high-quality development of public funds in Beijing [1] - The event is a collaborative effort involving the Beijing Securities Regulatory Bureau, Beijing Securities Association, public fund managers, sales institutions, evaluation agencies, and mainstream media [1] - Zhongjia Fund has been recognized as the "Best Cooperation Partner in Financial Services" at the China International Service Trade Fair, highlighting its strong reputation in the fund sector [1] Group 2 - Zhongjia Fund hosted a technology finance investment strategy sharing session themed "Intelligent Future, New AI," featuring insights from fund managers focused on technology sectors [2] - The company is actively positioning itself in the "specialized, refined, distinctive, and innovative" sector, supported by Beijing Bank, to create a comprehensive equity product system covering high-end manufacturing, technological innovation, and emerging consumption [2] - Zhongjia Fund aims to enhance investor satisfaction and provide lifelong fund services while promoting the "specialized, refined, distinctive, and innovative" strategy [2]