投资策略："水牛"行情延续，成长占优 主要逻辑 "水牛"行情延续，成长占优 【长江期货| 研究咨询部】 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 2025/10/09 研究员：彭 博 执业编号：F 投资咨询号：Z0021839 行情回顾：三季度A股市场呈现冲高震荡格局：上证指数 - 月延续涨势并刷新近十年高点后， 月转入高位盘整，围绕 点区间波动。本轮 横盘调整主要受双重因素影响：其一，前期快速上行积累的回调压力显现，在宏观经济尚未出现实质性拐点的背景下，市场存在自发修正需求；其 二，官媒针对局部估值泡沫风险发声提示，叠加投资者对后续政策节奏的观望情绪升温，导致部分资金风险偏好边际回落。整体看，成长板块的结 构性强势与传统板块的有序调整形成动态平衡，共同维系了市场在高位的运行韧性。 后市展望：展望四季度，行情上行的核心支撑逻辑未改，若无超预期利空扰动，市场在完成阶段性调整后仍具备向上拓展空间。从驱动因素看， 两大核心动能持续发力：其一，流动性宽松环境有望延续，国内低利率背景下居民与企业端的资产配置需求旺盛，叠加海外美联储开启降息周期带 来的外资回流预期，全球资金正加速向权益资产倾斜； ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The equity market continued its structural slow - bull trend in the month, with A - share major indices hitting new highs for the year. The "dumbbell - style" asset allocation was prominent. The policy promoted supply - side reform in over - capacity industries, and the technology growth sector regained activity. The market is expected to maintain a volatile upward trend in the coming month, and investors are advised to focus on sectors with strong performance certainty and capture rotation opportunities among different sectors [3][70]. - In the operation strategy, as the market has accumulated a certain increase and entered the quarterly report period, with obvious rotation characteristics, investors can buy IM on dips and use IH for defense with an appropriate position [4]. Summary According to the Table of Contents Macro Economy - **CPI Situation**: The month's CPI remained flat at a low level, mainly dragged down by the food sub - item. The core CPI continued to rise to 0.8%. The prices of industrial consumer goods and services were stronger than seasonal, driving the CPI to rise to 0.4% month - on - month, slightly higher than the average of the past ten years. The food price decreased by 1.6% year - on - year, with the decline widening by 1.3 percentage points compared to the previous month [12]. - **PPI Situation**: The month's PPI decreased by 3.6% year - on - year, with the decline remaining the same. From the demand side, extreme weather and international environment uncertainty led to a slowdown in construction and suppressed the demand for building materials. From the supply side, hydropower replaced thermal power, causing electricity prices to fall. Although the anti - involution policy narrowed the price decline in some industries, the overall price improvement was limited, highlighting the need for more demand - side policy support [13]. - **Export Situation**: The month's export increased by 7.2% year - on - year and decreased by 1.0% month - on - month (in US dollars). The "rush - to - export" effect was an important reason for the acceleration of exports. Exports to the US continued to be under pressure, while exports to the EU, ASEAN, India, and Latin America increased [16]. - **Consumption and Real Estate**: The month's total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.7% year - on - year. The growth rate of commodity retail decreased, and the catering industry was still weak. The real estate demand needed to be boosted, with the prices of second - hand and new houses diverging, and the investment decline continuing to widen [21]. - **Manufacturing PMI**: The month's manufacturing PMI rose 3.1 percentage points to 51.5%, remaining in the expansion range for two consecutive months. There was structural differentiation in sub - indicators, with the new export order index still below the boom - bust line, and the cost pressure on mid - and downstream enterprises remaining [22]. - **Policy**: The central bank maintained the LPR, and the government issued special treasury bonds to support consumer goods replacement and "two - major" construction projects. The Politburo meeting continued the "seeking progress while maintaining stability" tone, emphasizing more active fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies [27]. Market Review - **A - share Performance**: In the month, the A - share market rose unilaterally. The central bank's MLF operation increased market liquidity, driving the major indices up. The technology sector led the rise, and foreign capital showed obvious signs of return. Most industries in the Shenwan primary industry rose, with communication and electronics leading [33][34]. - **Market Style**: In the month, different styles, scales, and performance segments of the A - share market showed differential rises. The growth style index led with a 15.93% increase, and large, medium, and small - cap indices all rose by more than 10%. The market risk preference increased, and the investment concept became more rational [37]. - **Liquidity**: From the specified period, the A - share market's average daily trading volume increased by 34.5% month - on - month, and the newly established equity - oriented fund shares increased by 112.5% month - on - month, indicating increased market activity and institutional capital inflows [45]. - **Market Sentiment**: The month's market trading enthusiasm was significantly high, with daily trading volume often exceeding 1 trillion yuan. The market risk preference recovered, and the turnover rate of major indices increased, especially in the science and technology innovation and ChiNext indices [48]. Private Equity Strategy - **Basis Analysis**: The month's basis showed significant volatility, with convergence in the first half and widening in the second half. This had a significant impact on neutral strategies, both increasing risks and providing potential arbitrage opportunities [54]. - **Private Equity Sub - strategy Performance**: In the month, all private equity strategies achieved positive returns. The long - only strategy and the arbitrage strategy led with single - month returns of 18.2% and 16%, respectively [57]. - **Index - Enhancement Strategy**: In the month, the excess returns of CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 index - enhancement strategies showed significant differentiation. In the long - term, small and medium - cap index - enhancement strategies continued to lead [61]. - **Market Neutral Strategy**: The month's market neutral strategy environment improved, with an average return of 1.17% and about 83.87% of products achieving positive returns. The market's differentiated market provided more space for long - short hedging strategies [66].