风险资产，全线下挫！ 刚刚过去的24小时内，加密货币和科技股都被抛售。截至券商中国记者发稿时，比特币、以太坊跌超5%，加 密货币全网合约爆仓超8亿美元，爆仓人数高达22.7万。此外，韩国综合指数跌超3%，日经225指数跌超2%， 软银集团跌近9%，SK海力士跌超8%，三星电子跌超4%。 有分析人士指出，市场对科技股估值泡沫的担忧卷土重来，叠加美联储降息预期大幅降温，是导致上述风险资 产被抛售的主要原因。 22.7万人爆仓 最近几天，加密货币市场持续杀跌。昨晚至今，以比特币为首的加密货币再度上演跳水行情。截至记者发稿 时，比特币跌超5%报8.72万美元，以太坊跌超5.5%报2853美元，艾达币跌超6%，XRP跌超4%，BNB跌超 3%。 根据在线期权平台Derive.xyz的数据，比特币在年底跌破9万美元的可能性已上升至50%，因为交易员加大了对 冲力度，以应对世界上最大的加密货币的进一步下跌。另一方面，期权市场认为比特币在2025年突破10万美元 的可能性只有30%。 近日，比特币持续跳水，并抹去了今年的全部涨幅。年初至今，比特币累计下跌7%以上，有望实现年度下 跌，这是自2022年以来的首次下跌。 据路透社 ...

Market Overview - Risk assets have experienced a significant sell-off, with cryptocurrencies and tech stocks leading the decline. Bitcoin and Ethereum both fell over 5%, while the total liquidation in the cryptocurrency market exceeded $8 billion, affecting approximately 227,000 traders [3][4]. - The South Korean Composite Index dropped over 3%, and the Nikkei 225 Index fell more than 2%, reflecting a broader concern over tech stock valuations [3][7]. Cryptocurrency Market - Bitcoin's price has dropped to approximately $87,200, marking a decline of over 7% year-to-date, which could result in its first annual drop since 2022 [4]. - The likelihood of Bitcoin falling below $90,000 by year-end has risen to 50%, while the chance of it surpassing $100,000 by 2025 is only 30% [4][6]. - Analysts indicate that Bitcoin has broken below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, leading to a loss of interest from trend-following investors [5]. Federal Reserve and Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve's expectations for interest rate cuts have significantly diminished, with Morgan Stanley no longer predicting a rate cut in December. The recent employment data showed a substantial increase in non-farm jobs, which has led to a reassessment of economic conditions [8][9]. - Federal Reserve officials have expressed concerns about inflation remaining around 3%, indicating a cautious approach towards future rate cuts [9][10]. Tech Stock Performance - Major tech stocks have seen substantial declines, with companies like SanDisk and Micron experiencing drops of over 20% and 10%, respectively. This trend is attributed to renewed fears of a tech valuation bubble [7][8]. - The sell-off in tech stocks has been exacerbated by the Fed's stance on interest rates, as officials have downplayed the likelihood of imminent rate cuts [8][9].

Core Viewpoint - Peter Thiel's Thiel Macro Fund has completely liquidated its holdings in NVIDIA, selling shares valued at nearly $100 million based on average prices from July to September 2023, amid concerns of overvaluation in the tech sector and potential AI bubble [1][2]. Group 1: Peter Thiel's Actions - Thiel's fund sold all NVIDIA shares in Q3 2023, reflecting a significant market move by a prominent investor [1]. - Thiel has previously warned about NVIDIA's high valuation, comparing the current situation to the dot-com bubble of 1999-2000, and expressed skepticism about the economic benefits of AI hype [2]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Reactions - A Bank of America survey indicated that 54% of global fund managers believe AI stocks have entered a bubble, highlighting growing concerns in the market [2]. - Notable investors, including Michael Burry, have also reduced their positions in NVIDIA, with Burry's fund holding significant put options against NVIDIA [2][6]. Group 3: Institutional Actions - SoftBank sold all its NVIDIA shares for $5.8 billion in October, while Bridgewater reduced its holdings by 65.3%, from 7.23 million shares to 2.51 million shares [6]. - Other institutions, including UBS and HSBC, have also decreased their stakes in NVIDIA during the same period [6]. Group 4: Diverging Opinions on NVIDIA's Future - Some analysts argue that the current valuations in the AI sector are justified based on solid financial performance, despite potential risks from increased capital concentration [6]. - Others, like Brian Levitt from Invesco, suggest that while there are bubble-like characteristics in the market, it has not yet reached a typical bubble state, contrasting it with the late 1990s [6]. Group 5: NVIDIA Stock Performance - Following a peak of $212.19 per share on October 29, NVIDIA's stock has declined, reaching a low of $178.91, representing a drop of 15.68% [8].

Core Viewpoint - Citigroup analysts issued a warning regarding the overheating of the Japanese stock market, particularly led by technology stocks, while maintaining a long-term bullish outlook [1][2]. Group 1: Technology Sector Overheating - The report highlights that the Japanese technology sector's stock prices have decoupled from their earnings trends, following the U.S. "Big Seven" companies despite significant differences in earnings momentum [2]. - The MSCI Japan IT sector's valuation has surpassed not only the Tokyo Stock Exchange index but also the "Big Seven," indicating a potential peak in stock prices [2]. Group 2: Multiple Anomalies Indicating Adjustment Risks - Several unusual market signals suggest an impending adjustment, including the Nikkei 225 index and the Tokyo Stock Exchange index ratio reaching historical highs, with deviations from moving averages nearly four standard deviations [2]. - The report identifies four key indicators of potential market correction: 1) Yen depreciation contradicting the Japan-U.S. interest rate differential; 2) Japanese IT sector valuations exceeding those of the "Big Seven"; 3) NT ratio exceeding historical averages by nearly four standard deviations; 4) Nikkei 225 index levels surpassing analysts' composite target prices [2]. - Citigroup's simulations indicate that if the NT ratio returns to a normal range of two standard deviations, the Tokyo Stock Exchange index and Nikkei index could fall to 3200 points and 48000 points, respectively [2].

Group 1: Core Insights - Global investors are focusing on key issues such as concerns over U.S. tech stock valuations, expected fund flows, and investment timing in major Asian markets [1][2] - Goldman Sachs' chief global equity strategist, Peter Oppenheimer, believes that while tech stock valuations are high, they have not reached historical bubble levels, driven primarily by fundamental growth rather than irrational speculation [1][2] Group 2: U.S. Market Insights - Investors are questioning whether current valuations in the U.S. stock market have reached bubble levels, with comparisons made to the tech bubble of 2000 [2] - Goldman Sachs identifies three key differences from historical bubbles: current tech stock growth is driven by fundamentals, leading companies have strong balance sheets, and the AI sector is dominated by a few existing giants rather than a flood of new entrants [2] Group 3: Household Fund Flows - Goldman Sachs predicts that households will become the largest source of stock demand next year, with net purchases expected to reach $520 billion by 2026, a 19% increase [3] Group 4: China Market Focus - Investors are closely watching upcoming events such as China's Q3 GDP data and the Fourth Plenary Session, with discussions centered on U.S.-China relations and economic policies [4] - Recent data indicates participation from both domestic and foreign investors in the recent rally of the Chinese stock market [4] Group 5: India Market Timing - Interest in the Indian market is rising, with indications that the earnings downgrade cycle is nearing its bottom, and a potential recovery in the earnings cycle is expected by year-end [5] - Key factors for improving market performance include a reversal in the earnings cycle, lower valuations, and effective policy support [5] Group 6: Vietnam Market Impact - Inclusion in the FTSE Emerging Markets Index is expected to bring approximately $1.4 billion in passive fund inflows, although active management fund inflows may be limited due to benchmark performance pressures [6] Group 7: South Korea Market Catalysts - Potential positive catalysts for the South Korean market in Q4 include the passage of corporate governance legislation, which may enhance market conditions [7] - Despite recent market rebounds, South Korea remains significantly undervalued compared to emerging and developed markets [7]