来源：央视网 当地时间17日，全球多个主要市场因传统节日休市，贵金属市场交投清淡。 在美联储降息预期有所降温的背景下，黄金在5000美元/盎司的关键心理关口遭遇阻力，叠加部分投资 者获利了结，加剧了贵金属价格的下行压力。 据智通财经报道，2月17日，黄金、白银价格直线跳水。现货黄金向下跌破4900美元，日内跌超2%。现 货白银跌近5%，跌破73美元。 | 水上 | | 白银/美元 | | E | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | XAG | | | | | | 72.98 | 今开 | 76.55 最高 | 76.91 | 最低 | 72.81 | | | -4.75% -3.64 | 总手 | 持仓 | | 日增 | | | | 結算 | 昨结 76.62 | | | | 重多 | | | 分时 五日 | 日K | 園K | 月K | 申念▼ | | | | 80.43 | | | 4.97% 卖1 | | 73.00 | 0 | | | | | 买1 | | 72.96 | 0 | | | | | | 分时成交 | | | | | ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent sharp decline in precious metals, particularly gold and silver, has surprised many investors, with gold dropping below $4900 and silver experiencing a single-day drop of over 10% [1][3]. Market Performance - As of the latest update, spot gold has decreased by 3.27% to $4917.09 per ounce, with a minimum price of around $4878 during trading. COMEX gold futures fell by 3.19% to $4936 per ounce [3]. - Silver has seen a more severe decline, with spot silver dropping 10.84% to $75.07 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures down 10.93% to $74.75 per ounce, marking one of the largest single-day declines since 2026 [3]. Economic Factors - The primary reason for the sharp decline in precious metals is the cooling expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, driven by stronger-than-expected U.S. employment data, which showed an addition of 130,000 jobs and a drop in the unemployment rate to 4.3% [5]. - A stronger U.S. dollar has also negatively impacted precious metals, making them more expensive for global buyers and reducing demand [5]. Trading Dynamics - Algorithmic trading has exacerbated the price drop, particularly through momentum-based risk-off strategies that trigger automatic sell orders when key price levels are breached [7]. - Profit-taking by investors who had previously benefited from rising prices has further contributed to the downward pressure on gold and silver prices [7]. Investment Guidance - Investors are advised against attempting to "buy the dip" due to the high volatility and potential for further declines in precious metals [9]. - For those already holding gold or silver investments, a long-term perspective is recommended, while short-term traders should consider cutting losses [9][10]. Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that precious metals may continue to experience volatility, with upcoming U.S. CPI data being a critical factor influencing future price movements [10]. - Long-term forecasts remain bullish for gold, with institutions like JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs predicting prices could exceed $6000 per ounce by year-end, while silver is expected to face short-term fluctuations but has a tight supply outlook [10].

公司2026财年第一财季(截至2025年12月31日)调整后每股收益1.46美元，超市场预期；营收43.5亿美 元，同比增长4.1%，基础订单连续第四季度增长。公司计划通过股票回购和股息向股东返还22亿美 元，并上调2026财年每股收益指引至6.40-6.55美元。 以上内容基于公开资料整理，不构成投资建议。 股价在创历史新高后，短期获利盘抛压显现，连续两个交易日出现回调，盘中最低触及145.79美元，显 示高位波动加剧。同日美股三大指数均下跌，纳斯达克指数跌幅1.55%，道琼斯指数跌1.10%。艾默生 所属的商业设备服务板块整体下跌0.69%，科技股普遍承压。市场对美联储降息预期降温及部分企业业 绩指引疲软影响了风险偏好。公司市盈率(TTM)为36.29倍，高于行业平均水平。尽管财报超预期，但 部分投资者对自动化需求可持续性及成本上升风险存疑。虽有机构上调目标价，但也提示了业务转型执 行的不确定性。 业绩经营情况 经济观察网2026年2月12日，艾默生电气(EMR.N)股价收于148.41美元，单日下跌4.05%，盘中振幅达 7.91%，成交额约7.09亿美元。尽管前一交易日股价创下161.69美元的历史新 ...

相关ETF： 港股通科技ETF（159101）：聚焦科技产业，高弹性特点突出。 港股通互联网ETF（520910）：聚焦互联网龙头，乘风AI叙事。 以上内容与数据，与有连云立场无关，不构成投资建议。据此操作，风险自担。 据微信派公告，对以春节为主题集中爆发的过度营销、诱导分享等违规行为进行打击。对元宝的违规链 接进行处置，限制其在微信内直接打开。相关处置措施即日生效。 元宝则回应将及时调整分享机制，保证用户抢红包体验。腾讯股价今日再度大幅调整，盘中跌超3%， 拖累恒生科技指数表现。 整体来看，近期受美联储降息预期降温、海外局势扰动、市场流传小作文等影响，港股市场情绪低迷， 恒生科技指数阶段跌幅超20%，估值回落至近5年低位。 ...

随着港股市场持续调整，资金逆势加仓，恒生科技指数ETF（513180）于2月2日获得超2亿资金申购。 以上内容与数据，与有连云立场无关，不构成投资建议。据此操作，风险自担。 港股市场今年以来延续震荡调整行情，受美联储降息预期降温影响，恒生科技指数近日连续调整，年内 跌幅近1%，恒生科技指数ETF（513180）跟随指数回落。 具体来看，海外流动性预期收紧：美联储最新提名主席凯文·沃什，其"降息+缩表"的倾向引起金融条件 紧缩的担忧，美元小波段走强、新兴市场权益资产承压。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese yen is experiencing upward movement against the US dollar due to increasing concerns over Japan's deteriorating fiscal situation and expectations of delayed interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan [1][2] Group 1: Economic Stimulus and Fiscal Concerns - The Japanese government approved a significant economic stimulus plan totaling 21.3 trillion yen, marking the largest since the COVID-19 pandemic, with general account expenditures of 17.7 trillion yen, surpassing last year's 13.9 trillion yen [1] - This stimulus plan has heightened market concerns regarding Japan's fiscal health and the potential increase in government debt supply, keeping borrowing costs at multi-decade highs [2] Group 2: Currency Movements and Market Reactions - The USD/JPY exchange rate is expected to test resistance levels around 157.45-157.50, with potential upward movement towards 157.85-157.90, following a recent high [3] - A breakthrough above the 158.00 level could trigger further bullish momentum, while support levels are identified at 156.20-156.25 and 156.00, with significant support expected around 154.50-154.45 [3]

Market Overview - Risk assets have experienced a significant sell-off, with cryptocurrencies and tech stocks leading the decline. Bitcoin and Ethereum both fell over 5%, while the total liquidation in the cryptocurrency market exceeded $8 billion, affecting approximately 227,000 traders [3][4]. - The South Korean Composite Index dropped over 3%, and the Nikkei 225 Index fell more than 2%, reflecting a broader concern over tech stock valuations [3][7]. Cryptocurrency Market - Bitcoin's price has dropped to approximately $87,200, marking a decline of over 7% year-to-date, which could result in its first annual drop since 2022 [4]. - The likelihood of Bitcoin falling below $90,000 by year-end has risen to 50%, while the chance of it surpassing $100,000 by 2025 is only 30% [4][6]. - Analysts indicate that Bitcoin has broken below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, leading to a loss of interest from trend-following investors [5]. Federal Reserve and Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve's expectations for interest rate cuts have significantly diminished, with Morgan Stanley no longer predicting a rate cut in December. The recent employment data showed a substantial increase in non-farm jobs, which has led to a reassessment of economic conditions [8][9]. - Federal Reserve officials have expressed concerns about inflation remaining around 3%, indicating a cautious approach towards future rate cuts [9][10]. Tech Stock Performance - Major tech stocks have seen substantial declines, with companies like SanDisk and Micron experiencing drops of over 20% and 10%, respectively. This trend is attributed to renewed fears of a tech valuation bubble [7][8]. - The sell-off in tech stocks has been exacerbated by the Fed's stance on interest rates, as officials have downplayed the likelihood of imminent rate cuts [8][9].

Core Viewpoint - The recent sell-off in risk assets, particularly cryptocurrencies and tech stocks, is driven by renewed concerns over tech stock valuation bubbles and a significant cooling of expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][6][7]. Cryptocurrency Market - Bitcoin and Ethereum have both dropped over 5%, with Bitcoin trading at approximately $87,200 and Ethereum at around $2,853 [2]. - The cryptocurrency market has seen over $831 million in liquidations within 24 hours, affecting 227,000 traders, with long positions accounting for $696 million of the liquidations [2]. - Analysts indicate that Bitcoin's price is currently weak, having fallen below both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, and the likelihood of Bitcoin dropping below $90,000 by year-end has risen to 50% [3]. - The overall decline in Bitcoin has erased all gains made this year, marking the first annual drop since 2022, with a cumulative decline of over 7% year-to-date [2]. Stock Market Performance - The tech sector has faced significant declines, with major companies like Nvidia and Micron experiencing drops of over 10% and 20% respectively [4]. - The South Korean Composite Index and the Nikkei 225 have both seen substantial declines, with the former down 3.65% and the latter down 2.26% [5]. - SoftBank Group's stock fell nearly 9%, while other tech-related stocks also experienced significant losses [5]. Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Outlook - The Federal Reserve's expectations for interest rate cuts have diminished, with Morgan Stanley no longer predicting a rate cut in December [6]. - Recent employment data showed a significant increase in non-farm payrolls, leading to a reassessment of the economic outlook and a belief that the economy may be more stable than previously thought [6]. - Federal Reserve officials have expressed caution regarding further rate cuts, highlighting ongoing inflation concerns and the potential for asset price adjustments [7].

Group 1: Natural Gas Price Trends - International natural gas prices have rebounded in mid-October after a prolonged decline, with the largest increase seen in U.S. natural gas prices due to export prospects and winter stockpiling [1] - European and Asian natural gas prices have seen smaller increases, as industrial demand remains weak, and while power generation demand has grown, it is insufficient to offset supply increases [1] - The rebound potential for international natural gas prices is limited due to relatively small declines in natural gas inventories in Europe and the U.S. compared to last year, alongside ongoing weak industrial demand [1] Group 2: Global Economic Uncertainty - The end of the U.S. government shutdown may lead to some recovery in the U.S. economy, potentially benefiting natural gas consumption [2] - Concerns over a capital market bubble driven by AI have intensified, with investors selling off assets ahead of key events, reflecting fears of high valuations similar to the 2000 internet bubble [2] - The expectation for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December has cooled, with significant internal disagreements among officials regarding inflation risks and economic data availability [2] Group 3: Supply Growth Projections - Global natural gas supply is expected to see explosive growth in 2026, primarily driven by new LNG capacity from the U.S., Canada, and Qatar, with an anticipated increase of 40 billion cubic meters, or 7% [3] - In the third quarter of 2025, global LNG exports reached 107 million tons, marking a 3% quarter-on-quarter increase and a 5% year-on-year increase, largely due to U.S. supply growth [3] - By 2030, global LNG capacity is projected to increase by approximately 300 billion cubic meters annually, significantly influenced by new U.S. and Qatari LNG projects [4] Group 4: Demand Dynamics - High natural gas prices have suppressed demand, particularly in price-sensitive Asian markets, with global demand growth expected to slow to about 1.5% annually from 2024 to 2030 [5] - European natural gas consumption has shown robust growth, driven mainly by the power sector, while industrial demand has declined due to high prices [6] - Asian natural gas demand has stagnated, with a projected decline in 2025, influenced by high LNG spot prices and macroeconomic conditions [6] Group 5: Winter Stockpiling and Future Outlook - Following significant consumption in the winter of 2024, EU natural gas storage levels were low in spring 2025, but strong summer LNG imports have supported rapid replenishment [7] - As of early October, EU storage levels reached 83%, still below last year's 93%, with U.S. storage levels also recovering after winter withdrawals [7] - The ability to replenish natural gas stocks in Europe and the U.S. will depend on winter weather conditions, with potential for strong price rebounds if a cold winter occurs [7] Group 6: Overall Market Outlook - Global economic growth in 2025 is expected to be influenced by U.S. tariff policies, Federal Reserve monetary policy, and European geopolitical crises, affecting industrial demand for natural gas [8] - While European natural gas power generation demand remains strong, Asian markets are seeing a decline due to increased reliance on nuclear and renewable energy sources [8] - In 2026, a potential recovery in industrial gas demand is anticipated, but significant supply growth may lead to oversupply pressures, limiting price increases [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent downturn in the U.S. stock market, particularly focusing on technology stocks, driven by concerns over high valuations, economic uncertainty, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate policies [3][5][8]. Group 1: Market Performance - U.S. major indices experienced a collective decline, with the Dow Jones and Nasdaq dropping over 1%, and the S&P 500 falling by 0.83% [3][4]. - The technology sector faced significant losses, with the "seven giants" of tech down nearly 2% and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index down 2.3% [3][4]. - Individual stocks such as Nvidia, Micron Technology, and Amazon saw declines of nearly 3%, over 5%, and over 4% respectively [3][4]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment - Analysts attribute the sell-off in tech stocks to multiple factors, including persistent concerns over inflated AI valuations and a cooling expectation for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [5][6]. - A recent Bank of America survey indicated that investor cash allocation has dropped below a critical threshold, triggering a "sell signal" for stocks [8][9]. - The survey revealed that 45% of respondents view a potential AI bubble as the biggest tail risk, with 53% believing AI stocks are already in a bubble [9]. Group 3: Economic Outlook - Investors are reassessing economic growth prospects, which is putting broader pressure on financial markets [6]. - Concerns about the Federal Reserve not implementing a third rate cut in December are increasing, contributing to ongoing pressure on risk assets [6][7]. - The anticipated capital expenditures by major tech companies for AI infrastructure are projected to reach $371 billion this year, with a total need of $5.2 trillion by the end of the decade [6].