Core Viewpoint - The real estate market is shifting towards a rental era by 2030, making property liquidation increasingly difficult due to changing attitudes among younger generations and market saturation [1][4]. Group 1: Changing Attitudes of Young People - Over 65% of young people working in first-tier cities plan to rent long-term, prioritizing quality of life and personal development over mortgage burdens [2]. - The concept of "use rights over ownership" is gaining traction, with renting seen as a viable alternative to buying, allowing for financial flexibility [2]. Group 2: Policy Support for Rental Market - Government initiatives are significantly promoting the rental market, with over 3 million units of affordable rental housing constructed, and ongoing growth expected [3]. - Various tenant protection policies have been implemented, such as capping rent increases and ensuring lease renewal rights, enhancing the stability and security of renting [3]. Group 3: Market Saturation and Liquidation Challenges - The real estate market in China has transitioned from a growth phase to a saturation phase, leading to an oversupply of properties, particularly in third and fourth-tier cities, where vacancy rates are high [4]. - The difficulty in liquidating properties is increasing, especially outside prime locations in first-tier cities, compounded by rising holding costs despite lower bank loan rates [4].

Core Viewpoint - The traditional belief that "owning a house means having a home" is fading, and a new rental era is emerging in China, with predictions indicating a complete transition to a rental market by 2030 [2][4]. Group 1: Historical Context - Over the past two decades, a significant surge in home buying occurred, with nearly 80% of urban residents purchasing homes and 42% of urban families owning two or more properties [4]. - The housing market experienced extreme fluctuations, with prices soaring from 2015 to 2019, followed by a sharp decline in 2021, leading to widespread regret among buyers who entered the market at high prices [4]. Group 2: Current Trends - Population aging and declining birth rates signal a diminishing demographic dividend, while urbanization in China has reached 65%, raising questions about the sustainability of rising home prices [6]. - There is a notable oversupply of housing, particularly in lower-tier cities, with high vacancy rates exacerbated by population outflow and declining birth rates, contributing to downward pressure on prices [6]. - The second-hand housing market is witnessing a surge in listings, with over 7 million properties currently on the market, indicating a competitive environment that is likely to drive prices down further [6]. Group 3: Emergence of the Rental Market - The rental market is expanding, with the scale of housing rentals growing from 180 million to 200 million in recent years, and projections suggest that urban rental populations could exceed 260 million by 2030 [7]. - A cultural shift is occurring, with more young people embracing the idea of "renting to marry," signaling a transition towards a rental-centric lifestyle [7]. Group 4: Implications for the Real Estate Market - The increasing preference for renting among younger generations, driven by economic pressures and a desire for flexibility, poses significant challenges for property owners, making it harder to sell homes [8]. - The evolving housing culture and changing living habits will have profound impacts on the real estate market, necessitating adjustments from both landlords and investors [8]. Group 5: Strategic Considerations - As the rental market matures, it may persist longer than anticipated, prompting potential homebuyers to make informed decisions based on their financial capabilities and needs [10]. - Investors should diversify their portfolios and adapt strategies, such as converting older properties into rental apartments targeted at younger demographics, to achieve stable returns [10]. Group 6: Conclusion - The impending rental era requires a reevaluation of housing strategies, urging individuals to move away from outdated beliefs and embrace the changes in the housing landscape [12].

Core Viewpoint - The rental market in China is experiencing a significant decline, with average rents in 50 cities dropping for five consecutive months, indicating a shift from a seller's market to a more balanced one, particularly in first-tier cities [2][12][28]. Group 1: Rental Market Trends - Nationwide average rent in April was 35.2 yuan per square meter per month, down 3.4% year-on-year [2]. - Only two cities, Jiaxing and Shijiazhuang, saw a slight increase in rent, while Sanya experienced the largest decline at 1.1% [4]. - The rental market in first-tier cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen, which traditionally attracted population inflows, is now facing downward pressure on rents [5][12]. Group 2: Factors Contributing to Rent Decline - Economic uncertainties, including the housing market downturn and external pressures, have increased employment and economic stress, leading to a decline in population in Beijing and Shanghai [14][16]. - A significant increase in housing supply, particularly affordable and public rental housing, is impacting the rental market, with 172,000 units of various types of affordable housing planned for 2024 [17][19]. - Many homeowners are opting to rent out their properties instead of selling, leading to increased competition in the rental market and further driving down rents [22][24]. Group 3: Implications for the Housing Market - The decline in rental income is changing perceptions about homeownership in China, as the financial viability of buying property diminishes with falling rents [28][30]. - The shift towards a rental market could alleviate social tensions and align China more closely with developed countries where renting is more common [33].