美联储理事米兰：核心通胀滞后于租金通胀。 来源：滚动播报 ...

来源：金融界AI电报 美联储理事米兰：通胀指标滞后于租金通胀。 ...

来源：金融界AI电报 美联储理事米兰：经衡量的住房通胀滞后于租金通胀的持续放缓，而投资组合管理费的上涨则与市场力 量无关。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The new Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran advocates for significant and rapid interest rate cuts in the coming months to prevent unnecessary layoffs in the labor market [1][2] Group 1: Interest Rate Policy - Miran believes current interest rates are excessively high and that the neutral interest rate has significantly declined, suggesting that previous estimates may have been systematically overestimated [1] - He estimates the neutral interest rate to be around 2.5%, which is notably lower than the Federal Reserve officials' median forecast of 3% [1] - Miran proposes a series of 50 basis point cuts to quickly return to neutral levels, rather than a gradual approach throughout the year [2] Group 2: Economic Impact - Miran warns that maintaining short-term rates approximately two percentage points above the neutral level could lead to unnecessary layoffs and higher unemployment [1] - He expresses optimism about rental inflation, suggesting it will take time to reflect in official inflation data [3] Group 3: Market Reactions - JPMorgan's Chief U.S. Economist Michael Feroli critiques Miran's arguments, stating that they are largely unconvincing and unlikely to gain support from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) [2] - Feroli maintains that the FOMC is expected to gradually lower rates by 25 basis points until early next year, reaching a range of 3.25%-3.5% [2] - He highlights that Miran's focus on rental inflation neglects other components of inflation, which could misrepresent overall price level changes [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that rental inflation is currently showing a fairly regular downward trend [1] Group 1 - Rental inflation is experiencing a consistent decline, suggesting potential easing in housing costs [1]