受统计技术性因素影响，美国12月CPI可能大幅反弹，同时12月通胀数据也将美国关税效应传导的关键验证数据。 据追风交易台，摩根士丹利预计，12月美国核心CPI将出现显著反弹，环比增长0.36%，远高于10-11月平均的0.08%。这一反弹主要源于政府停摆期间的统 计扭曲，而非真实通胀压力的上升。 大摩表示，对投资者而言，强劲数据可能被市场视为技术性噪音而打折扣，但疲软数据则可能成为通胀降温的强烈信号。摩根士丹利认为核心CPI四舍五入 后落在0.3%和0.4%的可能性相当，但出现0.5%的风险高于0.2%。 值得关注的是，10-11月数据中几乎未见关税向商品价格的传导迹象，12月数据将更清晰地揭示关税传导情况。大摩认为，若12月数据符合预期，今年以来 关税相关的价格传导将为核心CPI同比增速贡献约45个基点。 统计扭曲导致的"报复性"反弹 大摩表示，12月CPI数据将反映政府停摆造成的两大统计偏差： 双月抽样偏差：除芝加哥、洛杉矶和纽约三大城市外，部分商品和服务价格采用双月采集。由于10月数据缺失，美国劳工统计局将8月价格结转 至10月，实际上假设这些城市10月通胀为零。12月将重新调查这些城市，导致价格对比基 ...

上海期货交易所指定交割仓库期货12月16日仓单日报显示，白银期货总计890715千克，今日仓单较上一 日上涨32901千克。 沪银主力维持震荡格局，今日白银期货开盘报14944元/千克，最高触及14957元/千克，最低触及14454 元/千克，截止收盘报14666元/千克，下跌0.30%。 | 地区 | 仓库 | 期货 | 增减 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上海 | 中储吴淞 | 109153 | 4351 | | | 外运华东虹桥 | 112715 | 15262 | | | 中工美供应链 | 498965 | 18384 | | | 合计 | 720833 | 37997 | | 广东 | 深圳威豹 | 169882 | -5096 | | 总计 | | 890715 | 32901 | 【基本面消息】 米兰表示，他预计随着租金涨幅从新冠疫情期间的峰值回落至正常水平，住房通胀将会缓解。他认为， 由于劳动力市场降温，服务业通胀不太可能面临上行压力。一些服务业通胀的驱动因素，例如投资组合 管理费，反映的是统计上的异常现象，而不是消费者实际感受到的价格变化。 谈到劳动力市场，米兰 ...

来源：金融界AI电报 美联储理事米兰：经衡量的住房通胀滞后于租金通胀的持续放缓，而投资组合管理费的上涨则与市场力 量无关。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Stephen Milan, a newly appointed Federal Reserve governor closely associated with the former Trump administration, advocates for aggressive interest rate cuts, challenging the cautious stance of the Fed [1][3][5] Group 1: Interest Rate Policy - Milan voted against the majority at the last Federal Reserve meeting, advocating for a 50 basis point cut instead of the 25 basis points supported by his colleagues [1][3] - He believes the current interest rates are significantly above the neutral rate, which he estimates to be around 2.5%, indicating a gap of nearly 200 basis points [3] - Milan calls for a rapid and substantial reduction in rates, suggesting a total cut of 125 basis points in the remaining meetings of the year, which exceeds the general expectation of 50 basis points [3][5] Group 2: Inflation Perspective - Milan emphasizes that inflation pressures are easing, particularly in housing costs, which he considers a key factor in his inflation outlook [5][6] - He assigns a significant weight to housing costs in inflation measures, noting that they account for approximately 16% of PCE inflation and a higher percentage in CPI [5] - He attributes the decline in housing inflation to stricter immigration policies during the Trump administration, which he believes have reduced housing demand [5][6] Group 3: Market Reactions and Criticism - Milan's views have sparked scrutiny, particularly regarding the potential influence of political factors on his decision-making, given his ties to the Trump administration [6][8] - He attempts to distance himself from political influences, asserting that his analysis is based on objective economic data [8] - Critics argue that his models may oversimplify complex economic factors, potentially overlooking risks such as geopolitical tensions and wage pressures that could counteract housing cost declines [9] Group 4: Comparison with Fed Leadership - In contrast to Milan's aggressive stance, Fed Chair Jerome Powell has adopted a more cautious approach, emphasizing the need for more data before making policy adjustments [9] - Powell's comments reflect a "wait and see" attitude, highlighting uncertainties surrounding tariffs and immigration policies, which differ from Milan's call for immediate action [9][10] - Milan's focus on housing costs and willingness to adjust his views based on data make him a unique variable in the Fed's policy discussions moving forward [10]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Governor Smilan indicated that he would adjust his inflation outlook if housing costs unexpectedly rise, acknowledging that his non-consensus view is not fixed [1] Group 1: Housing Costs and Inflation - Smilan pointed out that stricter immigration policies implemented by President Trump and trends in average rent could potentially suppress housing inflation [1] - He emphasized that if certain events indicate that the expected channels are ineffective and lead to significant rent increases, his moderate inflation forecast would need to be revised [1]

Core Viewpoint - The new Federal Reserve Governor, Milan, advocates for aggressive interest rate cuts to address economic risks, contrasting with Chairman Powell's gradual approach [1] Group 1: Interest Rate Policy - Milan suggests that current interest rates are 1.5 to 2 percentage points above the neutral rate and calls for multiple 50 basis point cuts to bring rates to a suitable range [1] - He emphasizes that maintaining high rates for an extended period increases economic risks, particularly the likelihood of rising unemployment [1] - Milan defines the neutral rate as being around the mid-2% level, significantly lower than the current Federal Funds rate of 4.00%-4.25% [1] Group 2: Economic Implications - Milan links the recent population growth and subsequent decline to significant economic impacts, noting that the previous surge in population was due to government borrowing and increased immigration [1] - He warns that every day rates remain above the neutral level makes monetary policy more restrictive, increasing financing and investment costs for businesses and households [1] Group 3: Immigration and Housing Market - Milan connects immigration trends to housing rental prices, predicting that negative net immigration will lead to increased housing supply and a cooling of rental inflation over the next 6 to 12 months [2] - He argues that the current high levels of the stock market are driven by non-monetary factors such as tax cuts and deregulation, rather than Federal Reserve monetary policy [2] Group 4: Independence and Future Outlook - Milan's focus on immigration and tariffs aligns with the policies of the Trump administration, raising questions about the independence of the Federal Reserve [2] - Despite his previous role in the Trump administration, Milan asserts that his decisions will be based on independent analysis rather than political directives [2] - Appointed to fill a temporary vacancy, Milan's term will end in January 2026, during which he expects to have three voting opportunities [2]

SHMET 网讯： 周三，特朗普发帖称，由于鲍威尔拒绝降低利率，住房市场出现了滞后。他表示："家庭因为利率太高而受到伤害，甚至我们国家本身也因此不得不支付比 应有水平更高的利率。我们的利率本应比现在低三个百分点，这样一来，每年就能为整个国家节省1万亿美元。鲍威尔这个固执的家伙就是不明白，从来没 有，也永远不会明白。理事会应该采取行动，但他们没有勇气这么做！" 然而，素有"美联储传声筒"之称的Nick Timiraos表示："特朗普说，如果美联储降低短期利率，美国的利息支出将每年减少1万亿美元。美国在2024年的利息 支出上花费了1.1万亿美元，因此这种说法几乎不可能是真的。" 尽管特朗普称鲍威尔是"史上最糟糕的美联储主席"，共和党人甚至试图对其提起刑事诉讼，但高盛和联邦基金期货市场的分析显示，美联储本月可能不会降 息。 投资者也对此表示认同。联邦基金期货市场预测本月维持基准利率在4.25%至4.5%的几率为97%。然而，同一个市场显示，美联储在本月之后的下一次会 议，也就是9月会议上，降息25个基点的可能性为58%。 高盛的杰西卡·林德尔斯（Jessica Rindels）在今早给客户的一份报告中写道："自联 ...

美国6月未季调住房通胀年率 3.8%，前值3.9%。 ...

美国5月未季调住房通胀年率 3.9%，前值4%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) indicates that housing inflation is easing, and there are no evident upward risks to inflation at this time [1] Group 1 - The RBA notes a reduction in housing inflation, suggesting a potential stabilization in the housing market [1] - Current economic indicators do not show significant upward risks for inflation, which may influence future monetary policy decisions [1] - The easing of housing inflation could lead to a more favorable environment for consumers and businesses alike [1]