Core Viewpoint - Stephen Milan, a newly appointed Federal Reserve governor closely associated with the former Trump administration, advocates for aggressive interest rate cuts, challenging the cautious stance of the Fed [1][3][5] Group 1: Interest Rate Policy - Milan voted against the majority at the last Federal Reserve meeting, advocating for a 50 basis point cut instead of the 25 basis points supported by his colleagues [1][3] - He believes the current interest rates are significantly above the neutral rate, which he estimates to be around 2.5%, indicating a gap of nearly 200 basis points [3] - Milan calls for a rapid and substantial reduction in rates, suggesting a total cut of 125 basis points in the remaining meetings of the year, which exceeds the general expectation of 50 basis points [3][5] Group 2: Inflation Perspective - Milan emphasizes that inflation pressures are easing, particularly in housing costs, which he considers a key factor in his inflation outlook [5][6] - He assigns a significant weight to housing costs in inflation measures, noting that they account for approximately 16% of PCE inflation and a higher percentage in CPI [5] - He attributes the decline in housing inflation to stricter immigration policies during the Trump administration, which he believes have reduced housing demand [5][6] Group 3: Market Reactions and Criticism - Milan's views have sparked scrutiny, particularly regarding the potential influence of political factors on his decision-making, given his ties to the Trump administration [6][8] - He attempts to distance himself from political influences, asserting that his analysis is based on objective economic data [8] - Critics argue that his models may oversimplify complex economic factors, potentially overlooking risks such as geopolitical tensions and wage pressures that could counteract housing cost declines [9] Group 4: Comparison with Fed Leadership - In contrast to Milan's aggressive stance, Fed Chair Jerome Powell has adopted a more cautious approach, emphasizing the need for more data before making policy adjustments [9] - Powell's comments reflect a "wait and see" attitude, highlighting uncertainties surrounding tariffs and immigration policies, which differ from Milan's call for immediate action [9][10] - Milan's focus on housing costs and willingness to adjust his views based on data make him a unique variable in the Fed's policy discussions moving forward [10]

风险提示及免责条款 美联储理事斯米兰表示，如果住房成本意外上涨，他会修改自己的通胀观点，从而承认了自己非共识观 点并非一成不变。米兰再次指出，美国总统特朗普实施的更严格移民政策以及平均租金趋势等因素可能 会压低住房通胀。"如果发生的某些事情告诉我，那个渠道没有效果，出现的一些冲击导致租金大幅上 涨，那么我对通胀的温和预测就会不得不进行调整。" 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The new Federal Reserve Governor, Milan, advocates for aggressive interest rate cuts to address economic risks, contrasting with Chairman Powell's gradual approach [1] Group 1: Interest Rate Policy - Milan suggests that current interest rates are 1.5 to 2 percentage points above the neutral rate and calls for multiple 50 basis point cuts to bring rates to a suitable range [1] - He emphasizes that maintaining high rates for an extended period increases economic risks, particularly the likelihood of rising unemployment [1] - Milan defines the neutral rate as being around the mid-2% level, significantly lower than the current Federal Funds rate of 4.00%-4.25% [1] Group 2: Economic Implications - Milan links the recent population growth and subsequent decline to significant economic impacts, noting that the previous surge in population was due to government borrowing and increased immigration [1] - He warns that every day rates remain above the neutral level makes monetary policy more restrictive, increasing financing and investment costs for businesses and households [1] Group 3: Immigration and Housing Market - Milan connects immigration trends to housing rental prices, predicting that negative net immigration will lead to increased housing supply and a cooling of rental inflation over the next 6 to 12 months [2] - He argues that the current high levels of the stock market are driven by non-monetary factors such as tax cuts and deregulation, rather than Federal Reserve monetary policy [2] Group 4: Independence and Future Outlook - Milan's focus on immigration and tariffs aligns with the policies of the Trump administration, raising questions about the independence of the Federal Reserve [2] - Despite his previous role in the Trump administration, Milan asserts that his decisions will be based on independent analysis rather than political directives [2] - Appointed to fill a temporary vacancy, Milan's term will end in January 2026, during which he expects to have three voting opportunities [2]

SHMET 网讯： 周三，特朗普发帖称，由于鲍威尔拒绝降低利率，住房市场出现了滞后。他表示："家庭因为利率太高而受到伤害，甚至我们国家本身也因此不得不支付比 应有水平更高的利率。我们的利率本应比现在低三个百分点，这样一来，每年就能为整个国家节省1万亿美元。鲍威尔这个固执的家伙就是不明白，从来没 有，也永远不会明白。理事会应该采取行动，但他们没有勇气这么做！" 然而，素有"美联储传声筒"之称的Nick Timiraos表示："特朗普说，如果美联储降低短期利率，美国的利息支出将每年减少1万亿美元。美国在2024年的利息 支出上花费了1.1万亿美元，因此这种说法几乎不可能是真的。" 尽管特朗普称鲍威尔是"史上最糟糕的美联储主席"，共和党人甚至试图对其提起刑事诉讼，但高盛和联邦基金期货市场的分析显示，美联储本月可能不会降 息。 投资者也对此表示认同。联邦基金期货市场预测本月维持基准利率在4.25%至4.5%的几率为97%。然而，同一个市场显示，美联储在本月之后的下一次会 议，也就是9月会议上，降息25个基点的可能性为58%。 高盛的杰西卡·林德尔斯（Jessica Rindels）在今早给客户的一份报告中写道："自联 ...

美国6月未季调住房通胀年率 3.8%，前值3.9%。 ...

美国5月未季调住房通胀年率 3.9%，前值4%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) indicates that housing inflation is easing, and there are no evident upward risks to inflation at this time [1] Group 1 - The RBA notes a reduction in housing inflation, suggesting a potential stabilization in the housing market [1] - Current economic indicators do not show significant upward risks for inflation, which may influence future monetary policy decisions [1] - The easing of housing inflation could lead to a more favorable environment for consumers and businesses alike [1]

美国4月未季调住房通胀年率 4%，前值4%。 ...