格隆汇1月7日｜在经历了一年持续的食品通胀、廉价对手竞争以及重大网络攻击的冲击后，英国零售商 预计将在2026年实现盈利改善。乐购、圣斯伯里和马莎百货将于本周晚些时候更新其圣诞交易数据，为 今年预期的盈利复苏奠定基础。数据显示，这三家超市今年的每股收益预计将合计增长13.5%，而2025 年曾下降1.5%。这一增速领先于英国更广泛的消费必需品行业，也超过了整个富时100指数10%的预期 盈利增长率。整个2025年，食品通胀依然顽固，迫使零售商通过价格对标和扩大促销来抵御低成本对 手，保住市场份额；同时，政府针对雇主的加税措施也导致了超市人工成本的上升。花旗集团分析师 Monique Pollard认为，虽然食品通胀仍具粘性，但预计2026年将减速至3%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Japan's Engel coefficient has reached a record high of 29.4% in Q3 2025, indicating a significant burden on food spending amidst persistent food inflation [2][5][7]. Group 1: Engel Coefficient and Food Inflation - The Engel coefficient for Japan in Q3 2025 is 29.4%, the highest since the current standard was adopted in 2000, with a moving average of 28.4% for the last four quarters [2][5]. - Japan's Engel coefficient was already the highest among G7 countries in 2024, with the lowest being around 16% in the United States, indicating a stark difference in food spending [7][9]. - Food prices in Japan have shown a year-on-year increase of around 6%, with specific items like chocolate and coffee beans experiencing significant price hikes due to high import costs [7][9]. Group 2: Household Financial Pressure - Real wages in Japan have seen negative growth for ten consecutive months as of October 2025, exacerbating financial pressure on households [9][10]. - The average proportion of disposable income spent on food for households of two or more was nearly 19% from January to October 2025, higher than previous years [9][10]. - Households are reaching their limits in cutting food spending, indicating a need for a shift in strategy to manage overall expenses [10][11]. Group 3: Strategies for Financial Management - Households are encouraged to reassess fixed expenditures such as housing, communication, and insurance to find areas for potential cuts [11]. - Despite ongoing wage increases, concerns about corporate salary adjustments have risen, potentially leading to stagnation in salary growth [11]. - Families are advised to explore various strategies, including job changes, to cope with inflationary pressures [11].

美国咖啡爱好者原本指望，唐纳德・特朗普总统上月调整关税的举措能很快让日常咖啡的价格降下来， 如今看来恐怕要失望了。 特朗普政府今年夏季起对多国征收大范围进口关税，涉及巴西等主要咖啡生产国，这直接推高了生咖啡 豆的价格。但经纪商、贸易商及行业专家表示，新增成本目前仍在供应链中逐步传导，尚未波及终端消 费者。 换句话说，美国咖啡零售价走高，主要是受去年咖啡豆供应短缺的影响 —— 截至今年 3 月的 12 个月 内，生咖啡豆价格一度翻倍。 独立咖啡分析师克里斯托弗・费兰表示："目前我们看到的大部分零售端涨价，并非是对关税政策的反 应，而是与去年以来生豆市场价格创下历史新高有关。" 费兰与其他行业专家估算，生豆价格变动传导至消费者至少需要 9 个月时间，这其中部分原因在于咖啡 豆烘焙周期以及价格谈判流程。这意味着，咖啡零售价要回落，很可能要等到明年年中。 美国是全球最大的咖啡消费国，该国消费者将不得不更长时间承受高价咖啡。对于白宫而言，想要在 2026 年 11 月美国中期选举前遏制食品通胀，也将是一项棘手的任务。 此前，由于选民对食品价格上涨的不满情绪，民主党在新泽西州、纽约州和弗吉尼亚州的选举中胜出， 特朗普因此 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. government has announced a tariff exemption on key agricultural products such as coffee, cocoa, bananas, and certain beef products, seen as a policy shift in response to rising food prices [1] - The increase in tariffs imposed by the Trump administration has led to higher retail prices for everyday food items, exacerbating the financial strain on American households already affected by high inflation [1] - Beef has become a focal point of concern, with the U.S. imposing high tariffs on major beef suppliers, leading to a significant increase in retail beef prices, which rose between 12% and 18% year-over-year as of September [1] Group 2 - The average price of ground roasted coffee in the U.S. reached a historic high of $8.41 per pound in July, marking a 33% year-over-year increase, largely driven by a 50% tariff on Brazilian coffee [2] - As 74% of food imports in the U.S. are currently facing tariffs, the costs of imported products like tea and spices continue to rise, putting pressure on small coffee shops that have seen wholesale prices increase by 18% to 25% [2] - The tariff exemption is viewed as a response to voter dissatisfaction with food prices, potentially easing some price pressures in the coming months, although experts warn that supply chain recovery will take time and global commodity prices remain high [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has maintained its interest rates but has begun to sell its risk assets, indicating a step towards exiting its large-scale stimulus program [2][5]. Group 1: Bank of Japan's Policy Actions - The BOJ decided to keep interest rates unchanged but started selling its holdings of risk assets, marking a significant move away from ultra-loose monetary policy [2][5]. - Two board members proposed raising the short-term interest rate to 0.75%, but this was not approved [2]. - BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda noted that while the consumer price index (CPI) data is in line with expectations, there are risks of long-term food price increases pushing up core inflation [2][3]. Group 2: Economic Outlook - Ueda emphasized that future interest rate decisions will depend on the impact of U.S. tariff discussions on the Japanese economy and whether food inflation will subside [2][3]. - Despite a slight decline in exports and manufacturer profits, overall exports are stabilizing, and corporate profits and capital expenditures remain robust [2]. - The BOJ maintains its basic forecast scenario from July, expecting the economy to withstand the impact of tariff discussions, with core inflation gradually approaching the 2% target [3]. Group 3: Currency Analysis - The USD/JPY exchange rate remains strong, positioned above the daily cloud chart, indicating a bullish trend [4]. - Key support levels are identified at 147.60 and 147.10, with resistance at 148.50 and 149.00 [4]. Group 4: Market Analyst Insights - StoneX senior market analyst Matt Simpson highlighted that the BOJ's decision to reduce its ETF and REIT holdings symbolizes a significant shift away from the era of Abenomics [5]. - This action may signal a potential interest rate hike in October [5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant rise in food prices in the UK, with the August food inflation rate reaching 4.2%, the highest in 18 months, driven by increased costs of essential items like eggs and butter [1][2] - The British Retail Consortium (BRC) reports that the overall store price inflation is rising despite a 0.8% decrease in non-food prices, indicating that food price increases are a major contributor to the overall inflation [1] - The BRC CEO, Helen Dickinson, attributes the price hikes to strong demand, supply constraints, and rising labor costs, while also noting that climate change and crop diseases are affecting cocoa prices [1][2] Group 2 - The Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported a 4.9% year-on-year increase in food and non-alcoholic beverage prices in July, up from 4.5% in June, indicating a persistent inflation trend [1] - The BRC anticipates that food inflation could rise to 6% later this year, reflecting ongoing pressures on household budgets as families reassess their spending [2] - Energy prices are also expected to rise, with Cornwall Insight predicting a 1% increase in the energy price cap to £1,737, exacerbating the financial strain on households [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan is closely monitoring the risks of rising prices, emphasizing the importance of its independence for price and macroeconomic stability [1] Group 1 - The central bank needs to observe whether food inflation will slow down as predicted [1] - Price trends are currently rising but remain below 2%, which is the reason for maintaining an accommodative policy [1] - The risk of lagging behind the yield curve is not considered high at this moment [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan's Governor Kazuo Ueda indicated that the impact of rising food prices on potential inflation will depend on whether food inflation decreases as expected [1] Group 1 - The central bank's stance on inflation is closely tied to food price trends [1] - Future inflation expectations may be influenced by the trajectory of food inflation [1]

Group 1 - The continuous rise in prices of products such as tea and meat has pushed UK food inflation to its highest level in 17 months [1] - The British Retail Consortium reported a 4% year-on-year increase in food bills for July, marking the highest increase since February 2024 [1] - Overall commodity prices have risen for the second consecutive month, with a year-on-year increase of 0.7%, the highest level in over a year [1] Group 2 - Retailers are transferring costs to consumers in response to policy changes effective from April, despite a weak economic backdrop [3] - The CEO of the British Retail Consortium, Helen Dickinson, stated that the retail sector faced £7 billion (approximately $9.4 billion) in costs due to last year's budget, forcing most retailers to raise prices [3] - There are increasing speculations about further tax hikes in the autumn as the Chancellor of the Exchequer, Rachel Reeves, seeks to stabilize the UK's fragile public finances, with economists estimating a potential funding gap of up to £30 billion [3] Group 3 - Rising food costs are particularly sensitive to household inflation expectations, increasing the risk of a "second-round effect" where workers demand higher wages to offset rising living costs [3] - According to Rightmove, the pressure from rapidly rising rents on tenants has slightly eased, with the average monthly rent outside London rising by 3.9% to £1,365, the smallest annual increase since 2020 [3] - In London, the average monthly rent increased by 1.9%, reaching a historic high of £2,712 [3]

Group 1 - The core issue is the significant rise in beef prices in the U.S., with retail prices increasing nearly 9% this year, reaching $9.26 per pound, and year-over-year increases for steak and ground beef at 12.4% and 10.3% respectively, putting pressure on consumers [1][3] - The price surge is attributed to a long-term supply-demand imbalance, with the U.S. cattle herd at its lowest level in 74 years, drought affecting ranch production, and soaring feed costs, alongside a 22% drop in exports [3] - Despite high prices, consumer demand for beef remains strong, with about 8% of consumption relying on imports from Argentina, Australia, and Brazil, leading the U.S. to transition from a trade balance country to a net importer [3] Group 2 - The agricultural sector faces challenges, as the CEO of Tyson Foods described the current environment as the most challenging in the beef industry’s history [3] - The American Farm Bureau Federation warns that if consumer confidence declines due to economic uncertainty, high beef prices may lead to reduced demand, putting producers in a difficult position [3] - Experts suggest that a decrease in beef prices will require signals from both supply recovery and demand cooling, with ranchers currently reluctant to restock due to low profit margins [3]