10 月 30 日，公司发布三季报。2025Q1-3，公司实现营业收入 180.90 亿元，同比-34.26%，实现归母净利 润 39.75 亿元，同比-53.66%。2025Q3，公司实现营业收入 32.95 亿元，同比-29.01%，实现归母净利润-3.69 亿元，继 24Q4 以来再次出现单季度利润亏损，同比-158.38%。 证券研究报告|公司点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 11 月 10 日 [Table_Title] 深度调整决心坚定，全方位改革优化 [Table_Title2] 洋河股份(002304) | [Table_DataInfo] 评级： | 增持 | 股票代码： | 002304 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上次评级： | 增持 | 52 周最高价/最低价： | 92.17/63.17 | | 目标价格： | | 总市值(亿) | 1,046.38 | | 最新收盘价： | 69.46 | 自由流通市值(亿) | 1,046.35 | | | | 自由流通股数(百万) | 1,506.41 | [Table_Summary] 事件概述 ...

华鑫证券研报指出，洋河股份2025Q3毛利率同减13pct至53.52%，主要系产品结构变动所致，销售/管理 费用率分别同增10pct/3pct至37.99%/13.02%，主要系公司积极推进下游库存消化，落地各项促动销举措 使销售费用短期高企，叠加营收下降致使规模效应收缩所致；净利率同减25pct至-11.32%，销售回款同 减27%至46.60亿元，合同负债同增29%至64.24亿元，公司主动进行战略调整，聚焦去库存、提势能、 稳价盘，导致业绩短期阵痛。三季度合同负债实现同增29%，整体市场库存已实现两位数去化，渠道压 力进一步减缓，经销信心回暖。公司持续深化去库存、提势能、稳价盘战略，聚焦终端开瓶，打出终端 动销组合拳，渠道库存去化明显，经销信心有所回升。维持"买入"投资评级。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with expected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 being 50.85 billion, 56.38 billion, and 60.58 billion respectively, indicating significant growth potential [6][8]. Core Insights - The company reported total revenue of 886.75 billion in 2024, a decrease of 10.09% year-on-year, with a net profit of 1.05 billion, down 97.83% [2]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.509 per share, totaling 19.94 billion, with a payout ratio of 45% [2]. - The decline in revenue was primarily due to impairment losses related to Bellamy and the joint venture Modern Dairy, which impacted profits significantly [4]. Revenue Breakdown - In 2024, revenue from liquid milk, ice cream, milk powder, cheese, and other businesses was 730.66 billion, 51.75 billion, 33.20 billion, 43.20 billion, and 27.94 billion respectively, with year-on-year changes of -10.97%, -14.12%, -12.66%, -0.86%, and +17.99% [3]. - The second half of 2024 showed improvements with liquid milk and milk powder revenue declines narrowing, while ice cream and cheese businesses experienced growth [3]. Profitability Analysis - The company's gross margin for 2024 was 39.57%, an increase of 2.42 percentage points year-on-year, mainly due to lower raw milk prices [4]. - The net profit margin was 0.12%, a decrease of 4.76 percentage points, primarily due to significant impairment losses [4]. Strategic Positioning - The company is leveraging its channel advantages and rapidly iterating new products to meet diverse consumer needs, positioning itself for recovery in the liquid milk segment [5]. - The company is expected to further increase its market share in the medium to long term due to its leading channel advantages and swift product innovation [5].