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税收经济剪刀差:几点产业观察
一瑜中的· 2025-07-24 15:54
Group 1 - The core phenomenon observed is the divergence between tax revenue growth and nominal GDP growth, with a tax-economic gap reaching 7.6% in 2024 and not significantly narrowing in 2025 [2][10] - The decline in tax revenue is attributed to the fact that 80% of tax revenue is price-related, and during periods of falling PPI, tax revenue decreases more significantly than nominal GDP [2][10] - Four main pathways contributing to tax revenue reduction are identified: energy structure transformation, stabilizing the real estate market, financial cost reduction, and encouraging technological innovation, leading to an estimated total tax revenue reduction of approximately 1.06 trillion yuan, equivalent to 6% of the projected national tax revenue for 2024 [2][10] Group 2 - The energy structure transformation is expected to reduce vehicle purchase tax and consumption tax by approximately 265 billion yuan annually, with significant contributions from the phase-out of taxes on new energy vehicles [3][15][19] - The real estate market stabilization measures are projected to result in a reduction of about 230 billion yuan in transaction-related taxes, primarily from land value-added tax and deed tax [4][27][30] - Financial cost reduction initiatives are estimated to decrease corporate income tax by around 270 billion yuan due to the narrowing interest margins affecting banks' taxable profits [5][37][41] - Encouragement of technological innovation through increased R&D expense deductions is anticipated to lead to a corporate income tax reduction of approximately 540 billion yuan [6][44][45]
税收经济剪刀差:几点产业观察
Huachuang Securities· 2025-07-24 15:33
Group 1: Tax Revenue Trends - Since 2023, tax revenue growth has significantly lagged behind nominal GDP growth, with a tax-economic gap reaching 7.6% in 2024[2] - In the first five months of 2025, tax revenue growth was -1.6%, while nominal GDP growth was 4.3%[7] - Approximately 80% of tax revenue is price-related, leading to more pronounced declines in tax revenue during periods of falling prices[7] Group 2: Impact of Policy Changes - The transition in energy structure is expected to reduce vehicle purchase tax and consumption tax by approximately 1,300 billion and 1,350 billion respectively[3][21] - Tax reductions from stabilizing the real estate market are estimated at around 2,300 billion, primarily from deed tax and land value-added tax[26] - Financial cost reductions are projected to decrease corporate income tax by about 270 billion due to narrowing bank interest margins[39] Group 3: Encouragement of Innovation - The increase in the R&D expense deduction ratio to 100% is expected to result in a corporate income tax reduction of approximately 5,400 billion[45] - The overall tax revenue reduction from these policy changes is estimated to be around 1.06 trillion, equivalent to 6% of the projected national tax revenue of 17.5 trillion in 2024[7]
大利好!2000年以前建成的老旧小区,全部纳入城市更新改造范围
凤凰网财经· 2025-03-09 13:42
来源|证券时报 十四届全国人大三次会议9日下午举行记者会,民政部、人力资源和社会保障部、住房和城乡建设部、国家卫健委四位负责人就相关问题回答中外记者提 问。 住房和城乡建设部部长倪虹表示,将实施一批惠民生、促发展、防风险的更新项目,其中在民生项目,将着力抓三件事: 一是把2000年以前建成的城市老旧小区都要纳入城市更新的改造范围,因地制宜实施改造,也鼓励地方探索居民自主更新改造老旧住宅。 二是城中村改造,现在范围已经扩大到全国地级及以上城市,要在去年新增100万套基础上,再继续扩大改造规模。 * 本文不代表凤凰网财经观点,转载已获授权。 【 热门视频推荐 】 点击在 看 持续关注↓↓↓ 倪虹表示,住房城乡建设部将会同有关部门,坚持长短结合、标本兼治,坚决"稳住楼市"。要巩固政策"组合拳"效果,把降息、增贷、减税等政策效应充 分释放出来,惠及更多人民群众;继续打好"保交房"攻坚战,切实维护购房人合法权益;加大"白名单"贷款投放力度,按照"应进尽进、应贷尽贷"的要 求,将符合条件的房地产项目全部纳入"白名单", 提供有力的融资支持,充分保障项目建设交付。 倪虹在回答为人民群众建设"好房子"有关问题时表示,推动建设 ...
两会预告丨明日上午,外交主题记者会!
证券时报· 2025-03-06 04:47
Group 1 - The 14th National People's Congress will hold a press conference on March 7, 2025, at 10 AM, where Foreign Minister Wang Yi will address questions regarding China's foreign policy and international relations [1] - The press conference will take place at the Media Center [1] Group 2 - The article mentions various topics related to the stock market and economic growth, including the government's work report and GDP growth target set at around 5% for 2025 [4] - There are references to significant market movements, such as a surge in Chinese assets and stock prices, indicating a positive sentiment in the financial markets [4] - The government's focus on stabilizing the stock and real estate markets is highlighted, suggesting a proactive approach to economic management [4]
房地产政策新信号!来看权威解读
证券时报· 2025-03-05 09:38
Core Viewpoint - The government work report emphasizes the importance of stabilizing the real estate market for maintaining economic growth, introducing measures to promote healthy development in the sector [1][4]. Group 1: Policy Adjustments - The report includes a commitment to "stabilize the real estate market" and "promote healthy development" as key objectives for 2025, indicating a shift towards more proactive measures [1]. - It specifies "implementing city-specific policies to reduce restrictive measures," suggesting potential adjustments to existing purchase restrictions in various cities [4][3]. - Experts anticipate that core cities may see a reduction in purchase restrictions, such as lifting limits in suburban areas and easing large-scale purchase restrictions, which could encourage demand [4][3]. Group 2: Empowering Local Governments - The report grants local governments greater autonomy in the acquisition of existing housing stock, allowing flexibility in terms of acquisition subjects, pricing, and usage [6][5]. - This change is expected to accelerate the de-inventory process and stabilize housing prices, particularly benefiting third- and fourth-tier cities [6][5]. - Experts believe this will enhance the supply of affordable housing and improve living conditions for residents [6][5]. Group 3: Quality Housing Standards - The report introduces the concept of "good housing," emphasizing the need for safety, comfort, sustainability, and intelligence in new housing developments [8][7]. - It highlights the importance of establishing standards and norms for housing construction, which is seen as a systematic approach to meet public demand for quality living spaces [8][7]. - The focus on "good housing" is expected to create a synergy with other real estate policies, ultimately enhancing consumer confidence and fulfilling housing needs [8][9].